Transcription
And no one can defeat the US dollar. Only one country can defeat the US dollar. Which country can defeat the US dollar? You tell me. It's not China. That's right, it's the United States. The United States defeats itself. For the past few decades, the United States has seemed to have nothing to do. Every day it just attacks itself, attacks its own currency, thinking it has unlimited credibility. Thinking it has unlimited credibility. The current world situation is not difficult to see. I think the current world situation is quite clear. That's how the big trend is going. So, please allow me to first briefly explain the world's overall situation in seven or eight minutes, and then invite Professor Wu Dahui to come up and be our keynote speaker. Last week, a friend asked me, actually at another event with over 500 people, he asked me a question. He said, use one word to describe what East Asia is like now. What is the situation in the Asia Pacific now? I said, I'll give you a few words. One is the United States, one is Europe, one is the Middle East, and then East Asia. For the United States, if I use one word, it's a return to isolationism. The foundation of the United States is not internationalism. For many years, for two hundred years, the United States has been an isolationist country. It was only forced out by World War II that it became an international leader. But its original, its origin, is very, very isolationist. You all remember the Monroe Doctrine of 1823, the 19th century, and it continues into the 20th century and even now, that Exceptionalism. Then, at the beginning of the 20th century, although it first proposed the League of Nations, it did not join itself. In the 1920s, it erected trade barriers, which led to the Great Depression in the 1930s. It was only forced out by World War II. I and you, in our lifetime, happened to live in the era of American internationalism. So we all thought that the United States was a very internationalized country. In fact, its DNA, its genes, are absolutely isolationist. So you ask, what will cause the United States to return to isolationism? There may be too many reasons. I'll give you a few examples. One is the US dollar. Everyone knows the unparalleled position of the US dollar in the world, but it cannot be denied that it is slowly declining in importance. And no one can defeat the US dollar. Only one country can defeat the US dollar. Which country can defeat the US dollar? You tell me. It's not China. That's right, it's the United States. The United States defeats itself. For the past few decades, the United States has seemed to have nothing to do. Every day it just attacks itself, attacks its own currency, thinking it has unlimited credibility. Undeniably, after World War II, the credibility of the United States was the highest and most powerful in human history. But if you are still living in the world of 1946, then perhaps your judgment of the situation may be wrong. So the US dollar is slowly weakening its status. If something special happens, that is one reason. Another reason is that there are many problems within the United States. Of course, China also has many problems. Every country has many problems. The United States has its internal problems. Do you remember what happened on January 6, 2021, at Capitol Hill? The United States has this possibility. Another reason is if there is any flaw in the US military operations, for example, if an aircraft carrier is sunk, then the world's confidence in its military protection network will begin to crumble. Then this will cause the US dollar to become unprotected. So there are many reasons. The capital market, the capital market is definitely, its capital market is definitely likely to undergo serious changes. Now it is extremely concentrated in seven or eight companies. This is something unprecedented in history. So the US capital market is not necessarily as strong as ordinary people imagine. It is large, but is it that strong? Not necessarily. Furthermore, everyone talks about rare earths, what is it called in Chinese, 稀土 (xī tǔ), or other critical minerals. These are national security tools that can be used to attack opponents. I say that in the future there will be another thing, which is also a rare resource, and that is capital itself. It is very likely that many countries will return to repatriation of capital, sending capital back to their own countries. Do you remember last year, French President Macron said something? We send tens of billions of US dollars to the United States every year, and they use this money to attack us. So, the return of capital, that is another huge matter. Where is the world investing the most overseas now? In the United States. If there is really a return of capital, then the impact on the United States could also be quite, quite large. So, for various reasons, the United States' return to isolationism is definitely happening and is already in progress. I also hope that everyone will not attribute all problems to Donald Trump. He is not the origin of the problem. Many problems have existed for decades. He is slowly declining. However, this president is special in that he kicked him into the sand trap. It was like this originally. This has nothing to do with Donald Trump. Donald Trump came to power and kicked him down, but it was just the final kick. So, the United States' return to isolationism, I believe, is inevitable and has already begun. From another perspective, the United States is qualified to return to isolationism, which is also remarkable. Which major power in the world can truly isolate itself like the United States and still live well? The United States' resources, energy resources, water resources, land resources, population, etc., are unmatched by any country. Some people say China can too. China cannot. China needs to import energy. Some people say Russia can too. Russia needs to export energy. So neither can live by closing their doors. But the United States truly can. So, many people interpret my words as the United States' power is declining. I say, be very careful not to think that way. So a few years ago, a document was released by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. What was the title? It was "The East is Rising, the West is Declining." I saw friends at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and advised them not to say this sentence anymore. Now it has been removed. The East is rising has some reasons, some truth, but the West is declining is not necessarily true. Europe is like this. Has the United States declined? In technology, it is still number one. Its capital market is still the largest. Its flexibility, in all aspects, its economic system, etc. Of course, we know they are currently facing some difficulties, which is the outward migration of manufacturing. But it is not an unsolvable problem. For example, I will fly to Mexico tomorrow. I went there nine times last year. How will the relationship between Mexico and the United States be in the future? These are all worth our attention. So, the United States, if I describe it with one word, it is a return to isolationism. Europe. I believe that in the coming years, Europe will undergo tremendous structural changes. Because it cannot, it is impossible, to continue to go on as it has for the past few decades. It cannot go on. Coupled with the Russia-Ukraine war, which has killed Europeans half to death. I say they are overly worried. But I don't live in Europe. It's easy for me to say this. If you lived in Europe, perhaps your perspective would be different. So, Europe will definitely undergo structural changes, I believe. How it will change, I dare not say. I have some ideas, but I won't go into the details. The Middle East. Everyone knows the Middle East. I have said for many years that the Middle East is definitely the most serious place of global turmoil. The Middle East. I still remember, I have been traveling in the Middle East for over 50 years. I first went to the Middle East in 1975. Basically, I go several times a year. In the past twenty or thirty years, I have visited Arab countries more than Israel. So, I have been paying attention to the situation there. I remember 25 years ago, the Crown Prince of Dubai at the time, who is now the Emir, hired seven or eight people as his advisors. I was one of them. What we hear now about the Educational Center, Logistics Center, Medical Center, and so on, were all things we discussed with the Crown Prince at the time, who is now the Emir. I must admit, at that time, I really had no confidence whether what they wanted to do could be accomplished. From one perspective, after 25 years, they have done more than I imagined. Successful, remarkable. You have all heard of DIFC, right? Dubai International Financial Center. When we were discussing it back then, there was nothing. Just a desert. Now it's incredible. I live in the Ward of Historia opposite, and I can walk to 50 restaurants to choose from. And they are all delicious. I dislike Middle Eastern cuisine the most because it's too healthy. But they have now reached a point where they incorporate elements of French cuisine, Japanese cuisine, Chinese cuisine, and so on. All of it. Delicious. So, what Dubai has done, I think it's remarkable. Of course, Dubai is the second in the UAE. The first is Abu Dhabi. Abu Dhabi said, "How can this be? This little second one has become so powerful. I seem to be falling behind." So it has also risen. Airports, airlines, and all sorts of things are all catching up there. So, they have a lot of money, right? And the most boring is that Saudi Arabia also wants to catch up. Who would have thought that Saudi Arabia would catch up? Of course, if we knew history, it might not be so incomprehensible. Two things happened in 1979. One is the fall of the Shah in Iran. I had dinner with his son in Washington D.C. a few months ago. The other event was the seizure of the Grand Mosque in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. The Great Mosque was besieged. Like Hong Kong in 2019. In short, these two events basically changed the entire situation in the Middle East. So, it would be against heaven if the Middle East were not chaotic. It is absolutely understandable that the Middle East is chaotic. Many friends have moved to the Middle East. I go there two or three times a year. My friends have moved there. I really have a different opinion. I say, are the buildings built by Hang Lung beautiful? Do you really not know how to live? Haha. I ask again, is the Hang Lung Plaza in Shanghai beautiful? Okay, thank you. You build such beautiful buildings in the most problematic location, the place with the most guns, robberies, and murders. You put it there. Then it's Hang Lung Plaza. But if you put it in the wrong place, it's a problem. I say, the Middle East, whether it's Dubai, the UAE, or Riyadh, is basically like this. A lot of money, really beautifully built. But in that region, it is one of the most unstable regions in the world. So, I say, many of my friends who have moved to Dubai have moved back. Apart from Hong Kong, there are probably not many other places to move to. So, Deputy Director, you are in charge of finance in Hong Kong. Good things are still ahead. A lot of money will flow back. New money will also come. So, I say Hong Kong should be a good place. In short, a few days ago, at a major event, someone asked me about the future of the Asia Pacific region. I used one word to describe my view. Do you know what it is? Peace. Tranquility. I believe this region will definitely be fine. You say, what about Taiwan? It will definitely be fine. It's impossible for there to be trouble. The United States, after the Russia-Ukraine war and now the Iran war, does it still have the capacity to fight? The manufacturing of weapons is a big problem, etc. Small countries cannot even fight. You want to fight with China? I say Americans are not that stupid. Don't underestimate Americans. They understand their own difficulties very well. So they won't come, and then there will be no trouble. The South China Sea. Once, that was what? The former US Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates. I was invited to visit him. I visited him and talked with him for an hour. He said, China's South China Sea, China lies. Jiang Zemin said he would not build islands there. Now military bases are being built. I said, oh really? I said, Bill Clinton also promised Russia that NATO would not advance an inch eastward. Did it advance? Now it wants to advance into Ukraine, which is why this war is happening. So, I say, did the United States also lie? Absolutely lied. All governments lie. The question is, how good is your technique? The best is to lie without lying. Many countries know how to do this. Furthermore, I say, if you promise not to attack, there is a prerequisite. That is, you cannot attack me. If you still have spy planes flying overhead every day, and submarines underwater, right there along China's coast, I talked with a good friend from the former US Department of Defense for a whole night. He told me many things. I said, if this is the case, if there are spy planes and submarines in the East or West Coast of the United States, whether it's Russia or China, or anyone else, what would you do? He had no answer. So, I promise you, I will not build military bases, on the condition that you do not continue to attack me. If you continue to attack me, I must fight back, right? Otherwise, what kind of logic is that? So, now, for many years, I have said that for East Asia, the South China Sea, etc., to be peaceful, there is one way: China continues to grow stronger. If you are there and I am there, you will definitely beat me to death. If you are there and I am here, there are some things that I will do the opposite. Then you say, no one will move, no one will fight. So I believe that the South China Sea, what is it? If you are at the Strait of Malacca and you are choking my neck, I will choke your neck here. Since I can choke your neck, you will not choke my neck. So it's that simple. So I say, I look and look, and there is really no reason for East Asia not to be peaceful, not to be tranquil. So, I think we are very fortunate to live in Hong Kong. China will be fine. Hong Kong will also be fine. So, my view of the world, in simple terms, is like this.