Transcription
Hello to all of you. I hope you are doing well. We are meeting for the Thursday, November 20th brief, it is 8:15 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long-short ratio, funding, open interest, and liquidations. We will look at what the whales are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened yesterday. We had quite a few movements yesterday on Bitcoin, notably due to the results we had on Nvidia. Uh, so we completely dumped yesterday. So I was clearly right to tell myself, "Okay, I'm not necessarily going to open a long, not necessarily open a short." It's really a zone in which you have to wait. Which is what we did. So we liquidated just before having this rebound. We are in a zone, we really have a candle that is rather beautiful in H4. So potentially we could have a rebound given that currently, well, we have formed an IFVG in this zone here. So logically if we return to this IFVG, we could have a rebound. So that's rather interesting. On the other hand, we have quite a few longs that are open, so logically, we should logically come into this zone, that's almost certain. So if we do come here, it could be interesting to potentially open a long. So Nvidia, we had results that were really positive yesterday. We had 57 billion in results. Uh, so instead of the 55 million predicted, so 2 billion more. Uh, clearly, this is super interesting news. It means that the AI Alts and so on have performed or will perform. So that's still good news for the market. So we, many said we were in a bubble and so on, but finally the results are there. Uh, so rather interesting. Now we will see if Michael Burry is right to bet on a speculative bubble on artificial intelligence. So he put 80% of his portfolio saying it was a bubble and that it would burst soon. So now, well, it's not for right away. He must, he must not be sleeping well, in any case, Michael Burry. But in any case, it's rather interesting to see in terms of the economic calendar. Uh, today, we have today the non-farm payrolls at 2:30 PM, but we especially have the unemployment rate at 2:30 PM. And that's something we've been waiting for for a while, given that we didn't have these figures last month. So there's quite a lot of delay on the figures, and so this news could really move the markets enormously. So be careful at 2:30 PM, we could move quite a bit on US assets and especially on cryptos if US assets move a lot. In terms of crypto bubbles, what we see is that we have green almost everywhere, which is normal. We have a rebound on Bitcoin. So we have strong alts that are rebounding, notably ZEC, DASH, FET, ATOM which is also up 10%, JUP, PUMP, NEAR, STRK, and we have a few alts that remain in the red. But well, in my opinion, if Bitcoin rebounds, it's a matter of time before it rebounds too. In terms of funding and open interest, what we see is that there are a lot of longs that are open tonight, notably between 5:40 AM and 6:00 AM. We had an enormous rise in open interest, which pumped nearly 2000 Bitcoin in the space of 30 minutes. So we see that they clearly bought this top. So logically we should come looking much lower to simply close these longs, even if we have closed the majority. We see it right here, we still have quite a few longs that have closed. But well. In any case, what we see is that here, it's a majority of longs that are open. We see a rise in open interest with a rise in funding on a rise in price. Which means that clearly, these are longs that have opened. So, rather interesting for us if we want to come looking for the H4 IFVG. Otherwise, what we see on this is that there isn't much else to say. Simply that there was an explosion this morning. In terms of liquidations, what we see is that we have liquidity clusters over the last 48 hours. If I put myself for example on 24 hours, we see that we have clusters to come and take in the 90,000 dollars. So that's rather interesting. It could come and close everyone. So that's what I was telling you about the liquidations that are present here, logically, well, we see them simply here. So up to 94,650 dollars. We still have a little cluster to come and take below, but that doesn't prevent us from going there and being able to rebound calmly. In any case, technically we are still bearish, but in terms of data, we are starting to have rather bullish things. So that's rather interesting. Uh, so, at the 3-day level, if we look at 3 days, we have liquidations to come and seek, so around 94,000 dollars. So we are not safe from going to seek them. And if we look at 2 weeks, we clearly have almost only liquidations on the upside. We have taken everything that was to be taken on the downside. So we could come and take a look around 97,000 dollars, or even up to 98,500 dollars currently. This means that at the current data level, we could come and seek this zone which would liquidate for nearly 2 billion dollars if we come to seek 98,600 dollars. So that will be rather interesting. In terms of what the whales are doing, the whales have started to accumulate gently. They haven't bought strongly either, but we see that we are potentially arriving at a bottom. And if we see whale purchases showing up, we could take off very strongly, very quickly. But well, currently we don't have this bullish signal yet. So what would be interesting is to simply see a dump with whale purchases at the same time. And therefore, that could tell us that we are clean, we are close to a rather clean bottom, given that we have taken liquidity right here. We validate a trend change right here. We come back to seek the H4 IFVG and then we can leave again. So technically what I think is that well, we are in a clean structure. We have all the chances to rebound in this H4 IFVG. So this IFVG is located between, uh, let's see, between 91,000 dollars and 92,000 dollars. So it would be interesting to position ourselves in this zone if we return there with data that remains bullish. If we see for example that shorts are opening and longs are closing, etc., it would be interesting to position ourselves, and if we have whales buying at the same time, well, all systems are go and then we can potentially rebound to come and seek 97,000 dollars or even 98,500 dollars. So this zone here which is located between 97,500 and 98,667 dollars. So it's a key zone. We also have a lot of liquidation to come and take. So logically, targeting this zone will be quite easy. So that would give a rather nice RR if we have this long entry on this. So we would put our stop loss below to come and target this liquidity zone, which would give us a potential RR of 3. So rather interesting. So I think I will post it directly on the public Discord if I see that the data is positive in this direction because for me, we are potentially on a rebound. We were in a daily rebound zone. We have filled the entire daily FVG that we had here. We are currently in the OTE zone of the entire bearish movement, so of the entire bullish movement. We have retraced 61.8% between the low and the high. So that's rather interesting. Clearly, well, for me, this is a plan that I like, and so I could potentially take this trade. If the data is positive at the time we go there. Why not go directly at 2:30 PM in which, well, we liquidate completely on a single wick and then we rebound completely. That would be a really interesting plan because it would let no one in, absolutely no one. We will simply have to be careful right here around 94,700 to 94,800, we have an IFVG in which we could be rejected right here. So we will have to be careful in this zone. We could very well do that. So be careful when we arrive in this zone. I think it's a first TP zone, 94,800-700. In my opinion, it's a rejection zone. However, if we break it, well, logically, we can use it as an IFVG. It would be an IFVG for reference for some. And then, we can potentially come and seek 97,500 to 98,600. So well, that's my plan for the day. Currently, it's not moving. As long as we don't make new lows compared to 88,500 dollars, I remain on a rebound plan. Now, I think we are on a dead cat bounce. That means simply that well, logically after a big dump on a downtrend, there's a moment where we take all the liquidity to then make the real bearish move and go much lower. So you will be careful about that, it remains a probable plan. But well, the current plan for the day for tomorrow would be this one. I wish you a very good day. We will meet again tomorrow at the same time. Take care of yourselves. M.