Transcription
Hello everyone, I hope you are doing well and welcome to uh YouTube for uh a new video that I spent quite a bit of time preparing. Uh I will talk about four stocks: Adobe, Google, Dassault Systèmes, and Amazon. And I will also fill the video with quite a few uh fundamental points, questions that I would ask myself. Uh which stock, at what price, how to manage emotions, learn from lessons, etc. While also talking about each stock, do I buy them or not? And at what price, knowing that well, some of them clearly interest me. Uh all of tech is correcting, I wrote that in the title and you see it here, uh Electronic Technology and Technology Service, and you have Adobe which is in there, Google which is uh in there. Dassault System would also be like Adobe, in technology services. Only Amazon would not be in there, but I still consider it to be partly tech. So that's it for today's program. For information also for the first moment of the community, I made you a post this morning on recent purchases, the analyses we are also conducting. And for those who want to join to have access to a community of quite a few investors now who exchange daily on the topics. This is also where I post well all my daily thoughts. It will soon be 1 year since I've been posting in there every day. Uh videos several times a week, my predictions, etc. Don't hesitate, it's also without commitment. So if after a month, you want to go back to YouTube, it's possible. which means there is very little friction and risk. And for those who also want the information that has been updated with analyses of ETFs, individual stocks, all my methodology, options too, etc., don't hesitate. It's included with the subscription to the school and you obviously keep the training afterwards and it gives you one year of community included and you have everything in the description and thank you for your support since the beginning. We are more and more numerous and it's thanks to you too that we can continue all this content well which is on YouTube for everyone. And obviously, this is not investment advice in this video. We will start with Adobe. So, it's a company that is very debated and I really understand both sides of the debate. The results came out yesterday, the company is still correcting on the stock market. Yet, the results were quite good. We will look at them quickly together. But I will also open the debate on my previous conclusion. So, already, both sides of the debate. Uh the positives: software with strong retention that works with companies, which cannot easily change other software, which is profitable, which is growing with the valuation collapsing. We will look at it indeed. And on the other hand, for the negatives, since it's both sides of the debate, many people say that customers are complaining, that we must not miss the AI turn, that AI could disrupt them, and the competition, which I will talk about again since I myself, when I launched YouTube, chose to work with a competitor for video editing, photos too, by the way, I didn't take Photoshop, etc. Uh just for the results quickly, well, we are still growing, etc., and there you will see a big misunderstanding because the business is doing very well but the narrative is very bad, and I will talk about it again later on other companies, and that's where convictions come into play. Still 13% growth here over a year if we compare the second quarters of 2026 for them, knowing that they report with a delay. 11% in constant currency. The company generates cash. It is still profitable. We will look at it together. I am not doing a complete analysis in this video. I really want to focus more on fundamentals, even if we can look at the numbers. You have good growth over 6 months. If you look at cash, cash equivalents, it has decreased a tiny bit. I will quickly check the debt. There is quite a bit of debt. Okay, it's worth noting a bit more than there is cash. Uh stock-based compensation, I know there is some. Cash flow from operations, they still generate some. Uh compared to 2025, it's not growing, it's worth noting. Uh and there are very few capex. So, a company that generates a lot of cash. That's why it's talked about so much, because it generates cash. [grunts] The numbers are not catastrophic, and yet the company is correcting and correcting and correcting on the stock market. Today, it's trading at nine times operating cash flow, taken relative to revenue. We can look at it, it's trading at four times revenue. Still a bit, but margins are high. So, this is Mastercard, nothing to do with it. I looked at it, we were talking about it in the school with members. I wanted to look at Adobe, I will look at it with you. I wanted to look at the margins, which are high for this business. Are they compressing recently? We could look. Yes, margins are compressing, but barely, very, very slightly, and even on operating cash flow, they are showing. So, valuations are low, they were higher before. Uh today, clearly, as I've already said, it's not a valuation problem. And that's a bit what I said in my previous conclusion, which I will go over with you again, because in fact, it's very tempting when you see the valuation and the numbers, but you have to ask yourself questions so as not to get caught emotionally. And that's what I said earlier, we've already seen this, and clearly, especially on valuation issues, the market has just decided it doesn't like Adobe. And I say we've already seen this because I'll give examples. That is to say, at the moment, the market doesn't like the company because there's a bad narrative on the fundamentals. I talked about it here, the fear around AI, software that can be disrupted, also competition, and customers complaining, broadly speaking, from what I've seen. And for example, you really have to love the fundamentals and believe in them, otherwise it will be tough to hold on. Here I'm talking again about IMS in the message we were talking about this morning. IMS, remember the emotional rollercoaster. If you don't believe in your convictions and you don't like the company and you just bought it because you looked at a chart or a valuation, well, when it was at 15, I was buying, I more than doubled my position in the drop between 25 and 15. Uh well, if you panicked and you had bought it at 30, 40, 50, I won't even talk about 60, 70 up there, we can go back and see. Yes, you see all the way up there. If you don't know why you bought it fundamentally, then it's panic. On the other hand, if you know why you bought it, well, you keep it for its fundamentals. And it's the same for Adobe. Uh Adobe is in freefall. Personally, I'm not going for it because the fundamentals, well, I have trouble telling myself that I would sleep soundly. But the valuation is low, I can't say otherwise, and the numbers are good. The problem is that emotionally, I would have trouble. And that's what we were talking about this morning. If emotionally we believe in it, if we like the business, well, if because we believe in it and we like the business, we will hold on emotionally. It's possible it's an opportunity and it will rebound. It's probable, I don't know, but I can't convince myself. That was my previous conclusion. Uh don't buy just because of the chart, but for the right reasons, ask yourself if you will sleep soundly and if you have convictions. I made this video several months ago, I did it at the time, and my answer was that for Adobe, I can't do it. I can even show you the editing software I use, which is DaVinci Resolve, which I've been using since the beginning, and it's free. Well, I have the paid version because I have a lot of AI tools that come with it, automatic subtitles in French, even recreating the voice, etc., and they just added the photo module. It's quite impressive. Here, it's the editing of the quantitative video we did together in the school, 1 hour long like every Thursday. But uh in fact, well, I use software called GIMP instead of Photoshop. I use DaVinci Resolve instead of Adobe Premiere Pro, which I used a long time ago and which kept crashing. I, well, I won't be polite, but it didn't go very well. And so I have trouble, and we'll talk about it again later with Dassault System, because with Dassault System, I have less trouble because I understand it better, but again, it's not because I can't that others won't make money on the business if it rebounds, but you have to convince yourself. So that's it for Adobe. Let's move on to the next one. It's Google, a company I appreciate enormously. As a reminder, unlike Adobe. I'm not putting it in this video for nothing because precisely Adobe, the market is very negative. And Google, the market [laughs] is very positive. In any case, that's my opinion, but there's clearly optimism and the valuation is taking off. As a reminder, Google is a company I own in my portfolio, bought in 2023 when it was buried. We're still waiting for ChatGPT. I don't want to repeat history, I'm saying it with a bit of irony, but well, it makes us smile. Uh today, it's at $360, I'm going for it, but absolutely not. And it has corrected well from its highs up there. I think it's down about 10-12%. So that's a nice drop already. We're already in a small correction on it. Uh I bought it at $108, I'm at 232% return, so 1x3 and a bit, whatever. Uh what I want to tell you here is that I could say "Ah great, I love it so much, I'm going back in." Ah no no, Google, I won't pay more than 220 and a bit. My principle should be between 220 and 230, I think it's 225, 226. Those in the school, you can check. Uh it would take a -36% to get there. -37%. And I can't do anything about it, but at the moment the market decides that Google is worth so much, and I wouldn't be surprised if it corrects. And even compared to Amazon, which we'll talk about later. So on Amazon and on other tech companies you know that invest in AI, everyone is panicking. Capex is exploding. See here, capex is exploding. I'll show you the graph. You have operating cash flow that is exploding. On the other hand, capex is also negative. And so, available cash flow, without reintegrating stock-based compensation, is decreasing. And well, there's euphoria on the stock, even with a small 10% correction. And I can show you companies with the same type of graph that are being massacred by the market, and that I might want to buy. And that's why I always say price is value. Here, Google, I can't do anything about it. The market is super optimistic. I'm not going for it. There's no question of selling, obviously, I don't want to bet against the market, but it's a very beautiful company. Uh and Google was in Adobe's place in 2023. Nobody was talking about it, the narrative was very bad. And at the moment, it's Adobe that is in this moment of extreme fear. And well, people who think the fear is exaggerated can invest in it. It's just that I can't convince myself about this one specifically, but I convinced myself about Google, about Amazon too, we'll talk about it. And it's specific to each person, and each company will have its moments of difficulty. I say this would be a rather fundamental video. IMS had this moment a few months ago. We were at $8 three years ago, mid-2023. Then it went up to $70. No question of me paying $70 for IMS, and then it came back to $15, and I don't believe in it. Well, I barely believed in it. Two and a half years later, they're selling it to me for $15, whereas for a year and a half, I couldn't buy it. Of course, I more than doubled my position because well, I had my fundamentals behind it, and today I don't even know what IMS is at anymore, but it's no longer at $15, and it can go down even lower. I'm totally prepared for it to go down. And well, we'll talk about it again later because it's super important. I'll talk about it again precisely on Amazon, about the questions I sometimes ask myself. I realize the video will be long, but oh well. Let's talk about Dassault Systèmes stock. So ticker DSY.PA, it's a very interesting case as it's on my watchlist with unpredictable. Unlike Adobe, I understand Dassault Systèmes much better. I've used it a lot, I was an engineer, I worked in several industries, I used well, software, competitors too. By the way, it amuses me a lot because I have generally positive feedback on Dassault Systèmes. I myself had positive feedback, for example, compared to the competition. So Dassault Systèmes also has Enovia. We're talking about SAP, other engineers, or in R&D, or in quality, or in methods, or in supply chain. I think you have a little idea of the opinions on SAP in the industry. In any case, that's mine, it makes me laugh, but I prefer Enovia from Dassault Systèmes. Well, I can't say it otherwise. And as with Adobe, I'm aware that the narrative is very bad at the moment for Dassault Systèmes, and so I would ask for a very, very strong discount. I made a video about it at the time, I said that around 18, well, someone who really likes the company and wants to pay it at a price that starts to be okay, at 18, I'm not shocked, I said it at 26 and 23, however, when we talked about it before, it was no, and I can't say it before, that would be too easy too. I'm talking to you about it. It's true that I could say yes, Dassault Systèmes at 40, it was too expensive. Yes, it's easy to say once the drop has happened. I only start talking from the moment I followed it. I don't remember when I showed you the dates on the screen, but well, from 26, I said it was too much. And only at 18, I started to say, so -33% later, I started to say "Yes, okay, the valuation is less abusive." But behind that, I ask for a big discount because well, the narrative is ultra bad, and when the narrative is bad, well [grunts] of course I ask for a risk premium, a margin of safety. And so, to finish a bit on Dassault Systèmes, which I like a lot, it's very specific software with a lot of customer data, a lot of very valuable data, very expensive, used by employees, etc., who each need a very specific license. I listened to a fascinating podcast with Jensen Huang of Nvidia who said that interface software will always be needed to communicate between AI and well, the person who will give the final validation in the company. It was an interesting conversation, and that the more specific the job, the more, in his opinion, the AI software is, so to speak, protected, well, the software that will adopt AI or not, for those who miss the turn. And yes, it's not a perfect company, but overall, the business and the software are rather appreciated from my ultra-personal experience. I've used both SolidWorks and Catia and Enovia. I've seen other people use other software from the group. After, I was more into industrial design, but you can also do hardware, etc., with them. So, everything related to electronics, and obviously Enovia, which brings everyone together in CRM. And well, obviously, it was never perfect. I think those who work on it know about service packs, SP 01, 02, and we always say, ah, 03, 04 is coming, this time it's the right one. The bug that annoys everyone will finally be fixed. And then you are 5 years later with five new SolidWorks, and we're still not with the bugs resolved. It's not perfect, but it remains good software. And also, a very interesting conference that I invite you to listen to on the partnership and development of tools between Dassault Systèmes and Nvidia. They are posting on AI tools. But will they succeed, or will the competition succeed first? Because there are competitors, Dassault Systèmes, well, there's still an unknown, and there's always the risk of execution, will they do things well? That's why, well, I would want it, but not at 18. I always invite everyone to do their own projections. I share quite a few as the videos progress, and I invite you to watch all the videos on the channel. Uh often I share, for example, one on Amazon. I really invite everyone, whether with an Excel file, or it's my little method because I like to keep them over time, or with an internet software, and in that case, you can take screenshots, that everyone puts their growth, their margins, etc., and asks themselves the questions that I will ask ourselves about Amazon, precisely to do a bit of fundamentals. I like Dassault Systèmes, if one day I were to buy it, well, I'll talk about it on YouTube since you all know my purchases, I also often share sales, etc. And also, don't hesitate, sorry, in the description, to use the ranking tool because I don't have that much space in my portfolio. So sometimes I sell, so I open up spaces, but I'm hyper demanding. And so, Dassault Systèmes at €18, I'm not shocked by the price. I wouldn't be at all shocked if it corrects further, but it's not cheap enough to enter the portfolio when you can get Amazon at $216, maybe soon, as we'll talk about. So it's not because a company is magnificent that I'll buy them all. By the way, we talk about it all the time in the school. You are all getting into many businesses, and I'm not getting into them because in fact, I can't get into everything. Otherwise, I have ETFs for that, and ETFs do their job very well. But yes, if one day I buy Dassault Systèmes, it's part of my list of software, along with others that I buy, which I've already told you about, and well. Anyway, this video will be super long, it doesn't matter. Amazon stock. Uh, I'm eagerly awaiting my Amazon. It was my purchase priority during the April 2026 drop. I've talked about it I don't know how many times on YouTube, I'm hammering it. And if it touches my new principle of $216, it was $212 at the time, but we had a new quarter, I updated it. It will become my priority again if we hit $216. And I bought it well, and I'll talk to you about it to talk about psychology and feelings, which are very important, but I think you'll be interested, in any case, I hope so. Tell me in the comments. Uh a very good example for working on your feelings and psychology just with the chart. A little exercise that I share, we do it often in the school. I'll do it with you too. In fact, it's part of my list of questions: are we being rational or emotional? Very important. A whole chapter on this in the program. And I also talk to you all the time about psychology. Uh, is this my little phrase that I love, is the chart triggering my purchase and my analysis, that is to say, the famous, what do we think about it? What do you think? Is it because we like the business or is it because we saw the chart go down or up? What do we think? I think we should often start an analysis with this question to ask ourselves. Anyway, I've gone off on a tangent again. Amazon, Amazon, for me it was $212 then $216, and I have an average cost of $206. Today, I'm at +14%. That means it doesn't matter, because not long ago, I was at +32%. Now, the questions I'm going to ask you, you'll see, well, these are questions I ask you all the time. When the company was at $212, did I, Doriant, trigger my purchases, knowing that it was my target price? Answer: Yes, I opened 30% of my final position in 2 weeks. Did I have that little voice in my head saying "Ah, I'll wait a bit longer, the stock market is going down. I'll buy lower." And I tell you this little voice at the time because, remember, we were at the beginning of the conflict, there was a lot of fear, it was a crash on the markets. Remember the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, it was there, look, in 3 trading sessions, we dropped -15% on Amazon. Here, it's easy to say "Ah, everything is collapsing, the indices are collapsing, the crash is coming, go ahead, I won't buy it at 212, I'll buy it lower." And yes, but in that case, the problem is that we get into the emotional, and I didn't build 100% of my position. I didn't buy my total Amazon budget in one day, but I started to get on the train and I was ready to calmly buy the dip because personally, I don't know how to find the bottom. Now, there are people who will prefer to buy reversals and pay a bit more. I respect that strategy, it's just not what I do personally, it's entirely possible too, but that we have our strategy and that we follow it to be rational. And so, well, this little voice, we ask ourselves if we had it or not. And now, the question we ask ourselves once we've started again, when the market was euphoric after a few days, remember end of March, beginning of April, everything took off at once. When it went back above its principle. I say my principle, but everyone will have theirs, everyone makes their own spreadsheets. I know you do your analyses. Did I have that little voice saying, "Come on, the fear is over, I'm not going to miss the train, I'll never see it at my principle again. I'm going for it, too bad, because I'm afraid of missing the train." I tell you, when it was, well, it's simple. Look, we were at 213, the next day we went to 223, the next day 233, and we went up to 278. Uh, well, I wasn't buying at 278. I wasn't even buying at 215. Why? Not because we were above my principle. Well, too bad, I'm not going for it. And when we're all the way up there, did you have that little voice, "Oh, I'll never see it at the price I want again. Oh no, I'll never see it again." These are questions to ask yourself. I don't have the answers. Everyone will answer them in their soul and conscience. I think it also comes with experience. Honestly, I'm an individual sharing my little journey and who today has the chance to be supported and to be able to continue doing this. And I thank you for that. I'm not perfect. I've made mistakes live on YouTube. It's always nice for everyone to see when we mess up. We don't forget to remind you. I've also had successes. The portfolio is doing well. We're not far from historical highs in the markets. And yes, it's nice, but ask yourself these questions because it doesn't happen overnight. And I hope that at my humble level, these little questions that I ask you, well, perhaps by answering them and sharing, talking in the comments, etc., it can help us to establish our own strategy more and more rationally and to see our wealth appreciate in the long term. So, am I being played or not by my emotions? That's a bit the question I would ask myself about these four companies that I appreciate. I think you've understood, I have Google in my portfolio, I have Amazon in my portfolio, Dassault is a bit expensive, but I like Adobe. Cheaper, I think Dassault Systèmes might be, maybe even cheaper, even if both are not that cheap, but I wouldn't sleep soundly. We're done for today. I hope the video interested you. I try as much as possible to make videos that I prepare well now that I have much more time, I had a little less. If you remember in April, etc., I talked about it, I posted a bit less. But yes, I hope you like the content. I wish you all an excellent day and see you very soon.