Transcription
Hey everybody, welcome back. This is going to be a pretty broad one. I'm just going to make some broad strokes here on what I think happened today and what I think you're going to be dealing with tomorrow.
Uh, obviously people are setting up for Friday, which you have year end, but I just want really want to rough run through this and this is going to be pretty raw and unedited. Um, I think the biggest thing that I really want people to take away from is that expect more of today tomorrow. Um, a lot of people are just going to phone it in. Institutions really are not doing a lot right now. You know, you have this kind of pattern where you're in a position here where you have the low, you know, after you took out this low and now you have the higher low, but you're really not getting above these key levels. You're kind of hanging in here. And and I'm not saying that you're not going to break out, but I don't think you're going to do it on, you know, a Wednesday before January 2nd on Friday. Um, and I just don't see institutions going crazy tomorrow and reposition. I see retail repositioning tomorrow and I think people are going to take advantage of that and I think we're already seeing some of that. So, I think that's important to understand.
But if we look at the market as a whole today, and I'm watching them like reach for any piece of news they possibly can. Um, you know, Fed minutes came out at 2:00 today and let's just get to this. I mean, this is your Fed minutes. Like, did it did it really matter? Like, no. Nothing really mattered today. So, what we have to focus on then and go, "All right, so what do you have? I've got 30 basis points from valley to high." All right, cool. Now, what me pointing at this and saying, "Oh, well, we might do this tomorrow. Might do that is an absolute waste of your time. So, I think the better thing to do is to kind of review what I think what I think is important and I want to go through some of these volumes, but I'm looking for this one scan in particular. Uh, let's do it this way and then what we'll do is we'll rebuild what I want you guys to see. So, it'll be easier to do that way.
So, one of the key things I want to focus on is you have the S&P here. Here's your spy, right? And so, we know 690 is a level. All right? And then we know the cues here. And we know that 625 has been a level up here, right? And this is the call wall now. 630. And I'm just going to show you this. And then we're going to show you the breath of both of these markets. And then we know 626 has been an issue as well. But we're up here. And we're going sideways. The pull wall is down here now at 6:15. People ask me how I get these. I make them myself. I have two services that do it, but once you have the actual data, uh, I actually make them myself. I find it easier. Um, and it gives me a better sense of what's going on in the market. So, um, I could do a whole video on how you can make them, but it doesn't matter. These are your levels, and this is where you're at. We could overlay, for the time being, we could overlay the 12, 22, and the 55, but is that really adding anything? Not really. No, because we maybe we touch it tomorrow, maybe we don't. But what what does that do for us? I don't think it does a lot.
Now, if we go and take a look at S5FI and we take a look at the 50-day, this is, I think, adding some value. Now, what this is, for those that don't know, this is the S&P stocks above the 50-day moving average. And we will talk about silver, um, what's going on there and I I do think that that is important uh for us to address. Um, but if we take a look at this S5FI and we can kind of see how you're setting up and you're pushing and you broke up came back down and as long as you're above 50 that's what institutions are always watching and you can actually go and I say this often but you can do it yourself you can actually turn this into an indicator. When you are above 50 market does a lot better. When you break 50 market does a lot worse. If you were to very simply again just do the the simplest thing and go how did you how was your trading on the year during this period of time and then how was your trading during the year during this period of time you already know the answer right you know it was better and easier when this was up here versus here. So you always want to use that 50 as a demarcation line.
Some people and including myself could even take this and what we would do is just take it and just go okay well here's the spy and then let's just take that and what we'll do with it is we'll take that we'll move it up to a new pane and then we're going to just drop it down here and what you'll see is going oh yeah when we flipped here that was super easy and then we broke and then if you really go and take a look from where you when you broke up here you really haven't gone anywhere nothing really major happened I mean realistically if you look from the date that you broke which was right here and you went up the market from that point is up 2% versus the date that you broke above here and then closed here and go look at the difference on that and you can look at this quite often. Now, of course, this is when we had all that winning and liberation. But if you were to look at that and come over, you really can't miss it. And there is a significant difference between when you want to be in the market and when you don't. And it's no different from breaking here and then wanting to get back in here or breaking here and getting out there. It is the same soup over and over again. You see how you broke here and then look what happens to the market. Bam. So, institutions, watch this, and I just explained in 30 seconds why, and you can see how that works in real time.
But there's some other things that you can actually do with this. So, you can go here and go S5FI and then divide that by Well, let me do it this way because then you'll be like, what's he doing? Hold on, Willis. So, then if I go NDFI, right, so that's not going to work that way. Hold on. I got to get rid of those percentages. NDFI, and you will see that we're at 58.41. Now, 5841. NDFI. All right. So, what is that? This is the NASDAQ 100 stocks above the 50-day. All right, cool. So then if I go S5FI and then I go NDFI. So now I divide them by one another. And you will note that you could turn this into an indicator as well. When you bottom like you did here, right? And you start rallying up and rising, you do not want to be long tech. So when this rises, this is your numerator. That's your denominator. When this rises, you do not want to be long tech. You want to be short tech until that on a relative basis versus the S&P until that happens. You can go and overlay this with every single peak right here. This is April 9th. That was all that winning and liberation. And you can see here how we're just deadlined. So, you're not really getting anything from that right now. It's not really making a decision saying be long tech or be short tech. But you want to watch this because if it starts really leading, you want to pay attention to that. I cannot stress that enough.
Something else that I think is super interesting and where we could really just look here. If I go here and go all sectors and this has 43 different sectors in it. I'm going to turn this into a line for a second. And that's the NAS or that's the IWF. And then what we're going to do is we're going to go here. Give me a second here. Let's do it this way. Come on. Got to load in, buddy. All right. Now, I went back to November with all the sectors. What do you see? Which what's leading? What's not leading? Gold and then the miners and then biotech. Well, people wouldn't think that. You know what else has been leading since November? XRT, retail, UFO names, which are the space names. These have been your leaders, healthcare. And you start looking that semis have been underperforming. Now, why this is always helpful is then what you do, and I have this at a 15-minute, there's 43 sectors in here. You can scroll through them and then look and say, okay, well, by December that changed. Okay, well, it did change. Well, what's leading now? Well, obviously the marijuana names, but space names. So as you go through December, you could start following where the money is going and the money is going into the space names. So that gives us something to look forward to as we start going into 2026. And this is something that obviously you can do for yourself. But I put all I have 43 in here that I I watch pretty closely. And this gives me a really good sense of what's going on in the market. And then all I have to really do is just constantly just keep going through it. And then you could just kind of use different time frames. I could drop this to a one and just look at it this way and just keep playing with it and say like, "Oh gez, like what what's going on here?" And you can just see like you'll see an outlier like this and you'll be like gez well they really can't get out of uranium fast enough. Wow gold is really on the way out or has been on the way out for the past two days. Um, let's get rid of the pre and the post for a second. I think that'll make it easier. It's taking forever to load this in for some reason today. But if we look here then you'll be like okay well since the pot names went you know and got approved and everybody loved them and you know well the schedule got lowered. You could see that from this period of time nobody wants those names anymore. And it's not by a little bit, it's by a lot. And so this kind of gives you a really good sense of what's going on out there. And you can play with it. You play with it over different time frames. Um, I really should make this available, but it's super it's super helpful to me to go through these sectors and see where you're at.
One of the things that I think that you should really be paying attention to, you could see where the socks is up here and you see where you are back here. If you just watch them, you can start seeing where they drop over certain periods of time and now that's down, right? So, it's super interesting to me because you think that like, oh, for December we're up and then you're like, "Okay, well, what's happened the last two weeks?" So, then you're actually able from there and I'll get rid of this for a second. I'll show you. So, like now you're able to go through that and pull out the socks and go, "All right, well, what's really going on here?" And you're like, "You know what? For the past week, we haven't gone anywhere." Now, that could just be because we're not going anywhere because the market's not going anywhere. But it does also mean that we probably want to take a look at that. So, then you could extrapolate that out and start looking at the moving averages and see what they're doing. Right? This is the three, the five, and the eight. And we're not really doing much. We're just kind of staying in that range. There's probably not a lot to do with that. But what you can do with that is you'll start seeing other sectors pop up and other areas of interest. I really wish his symbol was not the same symbol as the Dow Jones transportation. That would be fantastic if it wasn't. So when you come here and we look at the Dow Jones transport like you if you have that in your 43 which a lot of people don't even pay attention to this you'd see that this is breaking out or setting up to break out. It's very rare for a market to go down with the Dow Jones transport setting up to be breaking out of a multi-year base. It usually leads this is the beginning of a cycle and that's also the case here when we start talking about the XLF. And I'm just showing you these weeklies because at least this will get you kind of set for Saturday's video that's coming out, which is going to be packed about what to what to look for in 26. Um, and I I would strongly suggest that you make sure you subscribe to the channel for me go over that. And that's going to tie you into the financials. It's certainly going to tie you in and say that the transports and then you would go, well, why would the transports be going up? And then you'd look at like crude and crude's not really going anywhere, is it? And we're not really seeing a huge rally there as well. So, I do think that there's some signs on what's going on.
The biggest issues that we have outstanding and I don't think people truly get the the significance of it. Like I'll go through it because you guys are going to ask about it anyway. Uh Bitcoin I I don't think you're going anywhere. I I truly don't know the reason why it's going to rally. I can think of why it's going to drop because you're not going to have as many buyers because those treasuries are all going to go away, right? All those uh Bitcoin crypto treasuries, they're all not going to be included in index sector funds anymore. So, you know, that game's going to come to a screeching halt. Um, and I've gone on over that as to why I the only one that I think will be left standing is MSTR, but they're trying to force MSTR out of the MSCI, right, the World Index. And they might be successful. Honestly, they might be successful. And if they are, that's going to be a real problem for you guys with Bitcoin here. Um, I have the least amount of Bitcoin that I've ever owned since I started trading this thing right now. Do that what you will. But I don't see the impetus at all here. Like, at all. I don't know who's left. Uh we were waiting for these sovereign funds, these state sovereign funds. I mean, they just basically told us a story so that people would go out and buy it uh and then we'd vote for them. But, you know, they haven't done anything. There's literally nothing going on here on in with Bitcoin in regards to the governments or states on any level whatsoever. So, I don't know who who the buyer is. Um, you know, the ETFs, maybe the ETFs in January, they inject capital in the retail side and that gets it moving. But if you were to look at this chart and it was anything else, you know, your 55 is not pointing down, it's screaming down. I'm not a big like death cross guy by any stretch. Um, there's a time and a place for it. And, you know, I'm more and I see it up here and since then it's obviously down, but the amount of inability to even try and get through the 55 is telling you everything. So I think you're see going to see in 26 a huge decoupling of crypto from the NASDAQ. And I think if you really look at that, you're already seeing it, right? We could take a second and do that. But a matter of fact, if you just went here and went QQQ divided by BTCUSDT and you took a look at it, um, you know, no one's really talking about this cuz it's, you know, I guess it's not sexy and they can't tweet it, but you know, you're getting smoked by the NASDAQ. I mean, you're just getting smoked. So, if you really look at like where you were in 25 to here, you know, you're up 30% by shorting Bitcoin and buying the NASDAQ, 33%. So, you know, obviously no one's talking about that because it's not, you know, cool. Um, and they won't be able to sell you their NFT that way. But I do think there's something to that and I I really wouldn't sleep on that.
But I also think that this one I did this one which I thought was really fascinating. Um, and I'd watched Saturday's video, I'll link it at the end. You know, Tether's not buying Bitcoin with all it's Tether. It's buying gold. I mean, they're the second largest buyer of gold out there. I go over it in Saturday's video if you haven't seen it. When you start seeing this, this is pretty clean, right? Like that is very clean, which is leading. And then when you come all the way back here and you try to explain to people like, no, from 21 on, actually, gold's been outperforming. you had some outperformance on Bitcoin in here um, you know, when things were really bad but uh, you know, until the market rallied off and then this is when we were going to lose every regional bank uh clear candidly that didn't happen. So if we look at this right here, you're better off owning gold. Like if you off this February, we'll call it January level, I think you're actually break even, whether you own gold or Bitcoin over that entire time, which is absolutely kind of crazy when you think about it, you know. So when I go back to this, which was the point, and look at Bitcoin, it's not really acting as anything. It's not acting as a hedge. It's not acting as a store of value because you don't need it anymore because you have stable coins that are going to be gold stable coins. So if I actually want value and not volatility, I'm just going to do that. And now everyone in their sister has a treasury. So they're all loaded for bear. Their bellies are full. So who's who's left? I mean, we start thinking about that that and people say, "Oh, well, you know, the havening." Okay, everyone needs to come down with their Havening.
Now, if you start taking a look at gold and why gold's doing what it's doing, and this is really probably the best thing I can give you out of today today's video that is a real issue. um when they derisked the market yesterday and what d-risisk means is everyone that was trading futures pretty much everybody globally got a phone call and said uh, you know China just basically went to 100% margin and that means that like UBS all these players are like oh okay so what that really helps or what that really does is that means that they're going to derisk they're going to look at their portfolio and say you can get out now or you can stay in and you can wait till we give you a phone call it tells you that you have to go from 50% to 100% % margin because that phone call is probably coming if they did it in one place. So that's why everybody gets out of the market. They don't wait. They're like, "Yeah, I'm not going to wait for that phone call. I'll just get out." Now whether that comes or doesn't come, we'll all see, right? We still have the other issue that we're dealing with silver. And I do think that that's important. So are we setting up to get out of gold? Yeah. I mean, I sold it that day. like the idea that you're going to stop the actual commodity traders from getting out of the market. I don't really care what any anything is telling you. I don't care what any technical and this goes back to the stool. This is super important to get when people are like, "Oh, did you look at the COT report?" I don't care what any anybody says about anything. If you think that some kind of cot report or you think you're charting is going to overstay some kind of mandate by like vibo or comx saying by the way we know you have $100 million in futures in gold. Yeah, we're going we're raising that to 100%. If you think they're not selling because of the cop report or the technicals, you're delusional. They're they're gone. They're like, "All right, cool. Thanks for the heads up." And do you think they give these guys a heads up? Of course they do because they want their business. So when you start to see that the stool in and of itself, you have to think more on a macro scale here on what is really happening out there. And that ties you to that d-risking. And then that's also going to get into the things that happened today.
And you I don't know if people saw this with palladium. I'm not going to pull all these charts up, but like palladium and platinum. China came out and told their citizens that they're restricted to 300 contracts a day. Now, for most people, that's like a lot, but unless you're a massive guy, it's not really a lot. So, these guys, these larger funds that are trading over there, all of a sudden, they don't have any. They don't have the ability to do what they once did. Um, these things were limit down. Palladium was limit down today. And and people don't know that. People don't know that there's a China silver fund. That's the only pure play China silver fund that was limit down last week because it's 62% over the NAVA. The big issue is going to come this week and we'll you know market will close tomorrow and it is what it is. Does China extend these licenses or not extend these licenses. If they say licenses on which is supposed to happen January 1st then people are going to get squeezed on silver. That's still a distinct possibility. The problem with it is the government's going out there right now and they are telling people to get off of margin. They're forcing them essentially through through their exchanges and regulatory bodies. You can read about any of these articles. So that gives you this very interesting position and I'm not really sure which way that this is going to go. And I was telling people today on the technical side like my bet is that silver cracks hard. That's my bet that they blink and that silver cracks hard. But I don't know that, you know, and so you're looking at a technical chart and trying to make a macro decision. You just don't know. You're basically picking a side and seeing if it's going to work or not. What I do know, if you flip this, you're going to squeeze like a mother. I know that much. So, in other words, if you did happen for some reason to get above this, the only reason that you're going to be able to do that is a macro event where China's saying, "No, no, we're leaving these restrictions on. We want licenses." And if that's the case, yeah, you could flip this and get over it, but that's not going to prevent the macro side again of coming out there and the and the big guys of saying, "Hey, we're still at 100% margin. We don't want you levering." And so, that that's what you're dealing with here. So, it's it's pretty much a pickle. And what I've been doing with it is I've just been day trading it and staying out of the way. Now even that you have to take it when you have it, you know, because you're getting these bars and you don't even know what the news is because you're not tied to it. Meaning people that are getting news from various news services, not everyone's going to get commodity based news. So one minute you're sitting here trading and you're a genius. Like we bought this breakout right here and it was pretty clean trade. Um, and you could see it left, head, right? And then it just out of nowhere someone will say, "Oh, I saw it." No, there was news or somebody got a phone call right around 2:30 saying, "Hey, you need to reduce." And once that happened, that was it. It was on. And so, this is the kind of behavior that you could expect tomorrow. But really, we're going to get a better sense of it, I think, on Friday. And of course, on Friday, that's when we go into the new year. And then you'll see more tax uh events around that date as well. And that's something that, you know, we'll discuss in a future video. We'll definitely discuss it on Saturday's video. That is it. Happy new year everybody.