Transcription
What is up everybody? Welcome to DFS by the numbers and welcome to my most confident picks video for UFC about grade. We have Erceg Medić going against Danny Rodriguez and what looks to be one of the most violent cards of the year. Cannot wait for this card. Cannot wait for these fights. We got 14 fights. I'm going to give my most confident six picks for UFC about grade.
Before we get into it, you guys can do me a favor, smash the like button for me, subscribe to the channel, leave me a comment, be on the lookout for the rest of the content throughout the week. We got the best bet video dropping on Thursday. Uh the betting breakdown video dropping on Friday and then we have the live fight companion with me and Uncle Weasy on fight day. We got fights kicking off early once again, 10:00 Eastern time in the morning. So yeah, looking forward to this card quite a bit. I say we get into the first confident pick.
And we're going to start with Matheus Rębecki. Matheus Matheus Rębecki minus 500, Kyle Prepolec plus 300. And I like this match up for Rębecki. I'm I'm glad he's finally getting a good stylistic match up. I mean, you can see it right there. He's one and four in his last five fights, but you look at who he's facing and he's fought really good competition, you know, Grant Dawson, you know, Carlos Diego Ferreira, you know, even like Myktybek Orolbai who he beat. You know, he's fought some really good guys, Chris Duncan. And and now he's taking just a very big step down in competition against Kyle Prepolec who's 36 years old at this point. He's almost 37. He's been finished in, you know, five out of 10 losses and he has a huge hole in his grappling game and that's where I kind of think Matheus Rębecki's going to go out there and look minus 500. You know, Prepolec has about a 50% takedown defense. Not only that, he's been subbed three or four times. You know, this is a guy who makes a ton of mistakes on the mats. So if you're Matheus Rębecki, you know, get the fight down to the ground, use that BJJ black belt and potentially get a submission. So um I think even on the feet Rębecki can pressure, you know, land big shots against Prepolec and potentially even knock him out as well. So, I think Rumbek can really win this way by any method, but I think he finishes here. I'm going to be taking a look at like Rumbek inside the distance, something like that. Yeah, this is a guy who has finished the majority of his wins. He hasn't had a finish in a in a minute, but at the same time he's been fighting some very good competition. So, yeah, I like Rumbek here. I think he finds a submission, but I'm going to take that inside the distance I'm thinking this week.
Next we got Michael Oliveira. He's taking on Oban Elliott. And yeah, this guy Michael Oliveira is somebody I've had circled. You know, we've been waiting for this guy to make his debut. This is one of the most terrifying prospects in the game. Finally making his his debut here. He's taking on Oban Elliott who's on a two-fight skid who's looked atrocious his last two fights. You know, getting submitted against Jonathan Meikle. I mean, that's a bad look. You know, making Suk Young Ko look like Khabib Nurmagomedov for 15 minutes as a minus 600 favorite was a was a horrible look. And I think if he loses this fight, he's probably going to get cut. And I think he's losing this fight. You know, Michael Oliveira, yes, his ground game is untested and unproven. And that is a path here for Elliott potentially, but I don't think he's taking Oliveira down. I mean, Oliveira is built like a like a freaking statue. And as far as I'm concerned, statues are are tough to take down. You know, I'm going [snorts] to see for yourself. Go to your nearest statue. Try to take it down. See what happens. You know, this guy's going to walk forward like Michael Myers. He's going to land big shots. And I think he's going to knock out Elliott. He's been knocked out twice. Elliott's been finished in three of his four losses. So, yeah, I like Oliveira here. I would actually thought the line would be wider than minus 300, but probably going to take a look at like the KO prop this week. He has nine wins. I believe eight of them come by knockout. And I think he knocks out Oban Elliott. I don't know when it's going to happen. It could be early. Could be late. I kind of lean late cuz Oliveira, you know, these last couple fights he's kind of taking his time early on and just marching forward, slowly breaking down his opponent, and I think he's going to slowly break down Oban Elliott and make him crumble later in the fight. We've seen Elliott crumble late in the fight, uh, three times now. Three times now. So, yeah, I like Oliveira here, and I think he gets a a finish.
Moving on to the next confident pick, it is going to be Nina Milosevic going against Hailey Cowan, another newcomer here in Nina Milosevic. And yeah, I like her to win this fight quite a bit. You know, I was actually impressed with Milosevic. You know, she's going to be the hometown fighter. She's from Serbia here. You know, she's well-rounded, good striking. She's got power in the feet, fast hands, sharp hands, but it's her grappling that I was really impressed with. You know, her back takes, the ability to get into dominant positions, um, the scrambles. Yeah, I was really impressed with Milosevic overall. And on the flip side, you got Hailey Cowan, who I'm just not sure what she's good at. You know, I I don't know what she's good at in terms of like an MMA skill set. Like she's big, and she's going to be bigger here, and she's physical and and strong, but, you know, that's about it for Hailey Cowan. You know, five losses, four of them come inside the distance. She's been submitted three times. She's been knocked out before. You know, I I've seen her rocked, dropped, and and hurt a ton throughout her, you know, 12-fight career. She makes a ton of mistakes on the match. She slows down. Her gas tank's not great. You know, Hailey Cowan's looked awful these last couple fights. I mean, some of these losses are horrible. Losing to Alice Pereira is horrible to me. I don't care what anybody says. That's a terrible look. Alice Pereira Alice Pereira lost to Montserrat Rendon. And then, uh, you know, the Nora Cornolle fight is is what did it for me, man. I mean, she got, um, reversed and and insta-tapped by Nora Cornolle in round two. You know, she looked exhausted, and uh, she kind of just let Nora choke her out. It's like Milosevic is a much, much better grappler than than Nora Cornolle. So, yeah, I like uh, Milosevic here. I was hoping to get a better line, you know, cuz she's a newcomer and and whatnot, but you know, I think Haley Collins done. I'm actually shocked that they gave her another opportunity cuz she's 0 and 3 in the UFC and and these performances have just been getting worse and worse as her career's went on and I think this will probably be another bad performance. So I like Milosevic and I think she's live to potentially get a submission. Might take a look at the ITD prop or the sub prop here. But yeah, I like Milosevic this week.
Moving on to the next confident pick is going to be Aleksandar Rakic. Um he's minus 340. He's taking on Marcin Tybura. And yeah, I like Rakic this week, you know, he's coming up to heavyweight. And the thing about this fight is like skill for skill he's just so much better than Tybura. You know, that's and and I think that's why we we see some of these light heavyweights come up to heavyweight cuz it's like the skill gap between light heavyweight and heavyweight is is so massive. You know, this guy Rakic he's 1 and 4 in his last five fights, but he's losing to guys like Jiří Procházka, you know, Merab Dvalishvili. I mean, he's losing to guys even Jan Błachowicz who's just is so much better than Tybura. Like if he lost to Marcin Tybura, it would be by far and away his worst loss. It's hard to have a ton of faith in him, but at the same time it's like me, you know, how does Tybura win this fight outside of, you know, taking him down in two out of the three rounds? Cuz on the feet, Rakic is going to be much faster, much better. Tybura looks old, slow, um looks horrible Tybura these last several years. He's 40 years old at this point. He's taken a ton of damage. So yeah, I think Rakic gets it done. I do think it could be by decision though. Like I could see a knockout potentially, but I I I could see a decision as well. So I think uh you know, Rakic as a potential parlay piece makes sense to me. Um I'm just not high on Tybura at this stage of his career. I've really never been high on Tybura, but especially at this stage of his career. So I think Rakic goes up to light heavyweight or it goes up to heavyweight and uh gets his first win in like five years. And if he doesn't, he should be ashamed of himself.
Um by the way, before I do the recap of last week, last week for Abu Dhabi went 5 and 0 on confident picks. We did have six, but the Dulatov fight fell through, but went 5 and 0 on confident picks, which brings 2026 results to 90 and 28 for 76.3%. Have hit every pick these last two shows, so hopefully we can go six for six on this show and keep up the streak going.
Next, we're going to move to the co-main event. It is going to be Navajo Sterling, and he's taking on Jan Blachowicz. I'm sure there's going to be some people on Jan Blachowicz this week, but I will not be one of those people. Like, I can't back a 43 and a half-year-old fighter. You know, Blachowicz is the oldest fighter on the roster as far as I'm concerned. He's been dealing with a ton of bad injuries these last several years, like a neck injury, a shoulder injury. Um he just looks rough out there, and you know, having a draw against Bogdan Guskov is a bad look, cuz Bogdan Guskov >> [snorts] >> Um I don't I don't think he's that great, you know? Um and that performance against Ankalaev was was concerning at at the very least. And Blachowicz struggled with Guskov, and he got dropped and almost knocked out against Guskov. Sterling, he's going to be 15 years younger, and he's just a much better striker. He's going to be much faster, you know, better volume. Um he can mix up to the head, the body, the legs, good kicks for Sterling. And you know, the the one area where Blachowicz might be better is maybe the grappling, but at 43 years old, you know, this guy's not going out there and actively looking to wrestle at this point. I don't think his his body can do it, and even if he wanted to. So, and Sterling does have good takedown defense. Yeah, I like Sterling here. I think like a Sterling round three decision could be a look for me this week. Sterling and the over one and a half could be a look for me this week. I I cashed the Sterling and over one and a half in his last fight against Cutelaba, which was a sweat, and it hit. Um I think this will be less of a sweat, cuz I don't think Blachowicz is going to fight like an idiot like Cutelaba did. So, yeah, Sterling for me, I think Sterling wins this fight probably by decision, but a late finish wouldn't surprise me because Blachowicz is like really old at this point.
And then finally, we got the main event. Erlos Medic going against Danny Rodriguez. I like Medic. I'm picking against a lot of older fighters this week and you know, I don't mind that, you know. >> [snorts] >> Um Erlos Medic, the card is built around him. You know, this guy is from Serbia and this guy is going to be 6 years younger. This guy didn't do his half his camp in in prison. Um I and I've thought D-Rod's looked rough, you know, like his last several years. I know he's on a three-fight winning streak, but it's against Alex Morono who's washed, Ponzinibbio who's washed, and Kevin Holland who came into that fight highly, highly compromised and you know, Kevin Holland could have easily won that fight had he had any fight IQ whatsoever in that third round when he hurt D-Rod very badly. And And Medic is one of the most dangerous guys in the welterweight division. I mean, maybe even top like three dangerous guys in the welterweight division. This guy's an absolute killer on the feet, has a ton of power, and I don't like D-Rod's durability at this stage of his career. I don't like D-Rod's cardio at this stage of his career. Almost 40 years old, he's taken a lot of damage um at this point. He's been in, you know, 25 MMA fights that professionally, over 100 prison fights as well. Um he self-proclaimed. So, yeah, I think Medic wins here in in probably a first or second round knockout. The fight doesn't go to decision is minus 1,500, which is disgusting. Uh Medic KO is minus 250, which is disgusting, but I might [snorts] look at like a Medic 1-2, maybe Medic in the under one and a half, something something along those lines, but I think Medic get it done and I think Medic get it done very violently.
So, those are the confident picks for UFC Belgrade. We got Erlos Medic. We got Navajo Sterling. We got Aleksandar Rakić. We got Nina >> [clears throat] >> Nina Milosevic. We got Michael Oliveira. And we got Mateusz Rębecki. Six confident picks. Let's see if we can go six for six. Best of luck everybody for UFC Belgrade. Do me a favor, smash like on your way out, subscribe to the channel on your way out, and leave me a comment. All three of those things go a very long way. If you want to support me more, get extra content, early content, check out dfsbythenumbers.com. And yeah guys, talk soon. See you.