Transcription
In this video, I will show you a trick that allowed us to earn more than 50% with a stock listed on the stock exchange. Stay until the end of the video because we will see three stocks that could rise a lot. I don't know if you remember, but among the various functions of the forecaster, we have the break-even function. The break-even function, which in my opinion is very cool, does something very simple: it returns a list of companies, let's say those from the United States, that for the first time mark a quarter in positive. Okay? Apart from the fact that here in the explanation, precisely, there are some striking examples of stocks that started to rise on the stock market after, precisely, the company had its first positive quarter. Okay, but I don't know if you remember, but if we go and see, there is this video here that I'm sending you, so after the webinar, if you want, you can rewatch it. Here it is, where we had precisely seen three stocks to buy that might rise a lot. These stocks here, I won't tell you which ones they are, so I'll just tell you one of these. Okay? Among these stocks, for example, there was DoorDash. DoorDash. Here it is. Look at this video that was published. I'll tell you the exact date. We bought DoorDash shares on 12/11/2024 at the price of 175. Here you go. Look where DoorDash went from that moment, damn it. We are at 256. We literally bought them here, here you go, towards the end of last year. Obviously, the prices had gone down, then they went up, then they went down again. Now we have crushed that level. If we go and look at the fundamentals part, we see that look here, the last quarter, sorry, the second-to-last quarter of 2024 was precisely the one in which DoorDash went from losing money to making money, okay? And from that moment on, it continued to make money, so much so that 2024 closed in positive. Okay? Go and rewatch this video here, okay? I sent you the link, whoever sees the recording will find the link in the description, because it's always nice to see what we did in the past to then say "Ah, let's see what happened, did it go well, did it go badly, perfect. In this case, it went very, very well." Okay? Why is this discussion interesting now? Because, guys, in the break-even section, some interesting stocks have emerged that I wanted to look at with you. The first is Udemy, here it is. Why did Udemy come out on this list? Very simply, because, as you can see, it's a stock that loses money, okay? But in the last quarter it made a profit, and therefore the forecaster, which, as I always tell you, as I just told you, has no secrets, meaning it does something extremely simple in the end, but since there are 500 billion companies in the world, the difficult part is managing all this data. Okay? Udemy, very interesting, precisely for this reason, it goes into positive territory, and so let's see if it's interesting to buy. By the way, here you go, I created a nice watchlist that I called "break even." We can put the Udemy stock in there. Okay? If we go, for example, into the watchlist, we have all our nice watchlists, and this one too, where, for example, we now have Udemy in it, and we also find DoorDash and all the companies that have become interesting over time thanks to the break-even. Let's go back to Udemy. Here it is. So, how do you analyze a company to understand if it's actually interesting? First of all, we need to see what business it does. So, we activate our artificial intelligence button and ask the AI to tell us what this stock does. Okay, let's translate it into Italian so everyone understands. Here it is. Udemy is a popular online learning platform where people can take courses on a variety of topics. Okay? Imagine a giant library full of videos and lessons that help you learn anything. Okay? I know, you probably know it, I knew it. Udemy. Uh, it's an interesting business because, guys, frankly speaking, I myself know the online training business and I am convinced that it is an excellent business. It has all the very interesting characteristics that make it an interesting business. For example, if I create a course and make a video course, if I sell it to one person or 100,000 people, I don't have additional costs. Whereas if I print a newspaper and sell it to one person or 100,000, the costs for 100,000 copies increase enormously. Okay? But not for online courses. So, extremely interesting. Uh, let's look at the fundamentals a bit. First thing we see, revenue is growing. This is very important, guys. For a company to be interesting, its revenue must be growing. This is the first thing. If a company has growing revenue, if we go to the RAW section, where we see all the data, we see something interesting: the revenue of this company is growing, it's growing at a very good pace because it's growing year-on-year by 15-20%. And by the way, the TTM data, guys, meaning TTM trailing 12 months, means we take the last four available quarters and pretend they are the year, it is rising compared to the last financial closing. So, very interesting, very, very interesting. Let's look further here, uh, well, obviously profit. In this case, we see that from 2022, the loss is shrinking more and more. Interesting, interesting. The margins, obviously, guys, they are losing money because, precisely, they are, the result is negative, so there are no margins, but we also see that there are no debts, and this is very interesting, and in the last quarter we went into positive territory. Let's see. This is the classic company that we can evaluate with the enterprise value over sales method, enterprise value divided by sales, okay? Because it's a company that doesn't make money, we can evaluate it by its revenue, and in this case, we find that the company is undervalued. So, very interesting, very interesting to have this calculation method that gives us an idea of what the value of a company that is losing money could be. A warning sign here, which is the reason why I haven't bought this company yet, but have only put it on my watchlist, is the Altman Z-score. The Altman Z-score, guys, is a bit low. In a moment where we are at risk of bankruptcy according to the Altman Z-score, so I want to monitor this a bit more closely. Okay? At the Piotrowski level, it seems that the momentum has changed, meaning that from the worst moment for the company in 2022, we are in regrowth, and at the Beneish score level, we are fine, meaning the company doesn't manipulate its financial statements. Good, good, good, good. Let's look at the price for a moment because, guys, look here. If we go and look at the entire history of the stock, we can also look at the last 3 years, well, we actually see that here someone is making a mistake, or the market is making a mistake, or precisely Udemy is hiding something from us in some way, because look, we have a stock that is at its lows but with improving profits and revenue that is actually growing, growing quite a lot as I showed you before. Okay, very interesting. And so let's see for a moment what our marketer tells us. Here we don't have really powerful and violent upward signals, so much so that, precisely, I'm still a bit hesitant. I want to get a clearer picture on this stock, but I tell you that if it were to return to previous lows with a good divergence, well, it would be very interesting because at the moment, despite being very interesting from a fundamental point of view, from a mathematical-statistical point of view, I don't have those signals that make me say "Wow, this is ready to explode." Okay, but it remains an interesting stock to put on the watchlist that, guys, absolutely has potential, meaning this stock is very, very interesting. Let's see when the next ones are. No, the next earnings are not signaled in this case. Uh, we'll look at it, we'll look at it later. Okay, let's see if there's anything interesting. You see, on July 31st, the last quarterly report was released. Let's get help from our legendary artificial intelligence. Positive news doesn't interest us. Let's look at the consumer segment revenue decline. I'll translate it into Italian, it's the first time I'm reading it, I'll tell you the truth. Decline in revenue from the consumer segment. This is a bad thing because consumers are the customers of this company. Revenue from them has decreased by 4% year-on-year, which is not a good figure, uh, churn rate of small and medium-sized enterprises, higher churn rate especially among SMEs. Okay? Uh, the company, here, risks and concerns, this is important. The company is working on the final renewals of multi-year contracts signed during the pandemic, which could present challenges. Uh, here, this is interesting. Many contracts were made during the pandemic, they are ending, they need to be renewed, and who knows, everything has changed compared to the pandemic. Let's see. Growth strategy. The company is focusing on increasing emphasis on subscription products, blah blah blah. In short, it is expected to increase consumer subscribers to over 250,000 units by the end of the year. Artificial intelligence initiatives, obviously launching an AI-based role-playing game, doesn't seem like anything wow to me. Uh, management change, solid balance sheet. The second-quarter earnings call reflects a company in transition with a strategic focus on artificial intelligence, subscription growth, and business solutions. Let's put it on the watchlist, guys, let's put it on the watchlist because, after all, I believe a lot in the future of online training, especially because, guys, it's increasingly clear that many skills needed today are not taught in school, and simply, guys, all the last, at least five people who started working for our companies are people who are not graduates and who learned a job literally on sites like this. The video you saw today, the presentation made with artificial intelligence, was done by a guy who literally works for us from Malta, his name is Filippo, and guys, this guy is 20 years old, and he started working because he wrote to me on Instagram and sent me some of his work. I was fascinated by his work, and he learned everything he knows during the pandemic, and now he's joined us, and well, I told him, "Listen, why don't we make a nice trailer with artificial intelligence?" and he got to it, understood how to do it, and did it. Okay, so, well, let's see. Luciano tells us that as a qualitative score he has 5. Let's see. A bit low. A bit low, indeed. Let's see what the key points are. Uh, uh, ah, uh, ah. They don't develop much. Well, these, after all, sell courses. The employees, meaning the people who work for the company, stay for a short time, which is not a very good sign, so something to monitor. In fact, guys, meaning there's no enthusiasm for this stock, we are literally at historic lows, and the stock has never risen, so you still need to be careful. The second stock that I found very interesting. Let's go back to the break-even section. Here it is. Varonis Systems. Let's see what these gentlemen do. Here too, guys, you see? Revenue is growing. When I see a stock, say, like this Upstart, meaning this stock here, I don't even analyze it because it doesn't have growing revenue. Companies with non-growing revenue, forget them, historically they don't bring satisfaction. Okay? This Varonis, however, deserves our attention because, precisely, its revenue is growing. It also, obviously, went into positive territory in this quarter. Okay, let's analyze it a bit better. Okay, let's also do the analysis here with our enterprise value over sales method, and here we find a company that is already a bit overvalued even with this method, so the first warning sign. A solid company, however, even if its Altman Z-score has decreased a bit over the years. Piotrowski score. Here too, always not too exciting. I don't like to see a Piotrowski score that worsens in the year that should theoretically close positively, meaning, sorry, in the period before the year that should close positively. Hmm, I don't like it. And well, here they don't, let's say, they don't manipulate their financial statements. Okay, let's look at the price a bit on the overview. The stock is not as depressed as the one we were looking at before, revenue is rising, so it's interesting. Net income? Net income. Yes, the TTM, as you can see here, is still negative, but much improved, because look here, this is precisely the TTM data. From a loss of -95 million in the last financial statement, the TTM is -14. We see it here if we go into the raw data, here it is. The TTM, this data here. Good in this case because, as you can see, the TTM revenue, in this case 595, is higher than 551, so if it closed the year now, it would mark a year with an 8% growth, which is not bad at all. And precisely the net income, as you can see, is -1 TTM compared to -96 million from the last closed financial statement. This is the same data we see on the chart. Okay, so it's interesting, what do these gentlemen do? Let's see, let's translate it into Italian. Varonis is a technology company specializing in software designed to protect and manage data within organizations. Think of it as a set of super intelligent tools that help companies protect their important information and ensure correct usage. Data security, data analysis, compliance. Varonis is part of the software sector, infrastructure, it is listed on NASDAQ, blah blah blah. In short, Varonis is like a data security system that companies guard jealously. It helps protect information, ensure correct usage, and ensure that companies follow important rules. Good, uh, as I was saying, revenue is growing, so it is definitely definitely interesting. Let's see what they said on July 29th. Let's ask the artificial intelligence. Let's go straight to risks and concerns. The company, I'll translate it into Italian for you. The company stated that it is keeping an eye on the uncertain macroeconomic context. Well, everyone, guys. Review of agreements, greater control of agreements in the current economic context, so, hmm, we don't have concerns. Total revenue, precisely, they expect it to rise, uh, completion of the transition to SaaS, meaning Software as a Service. In short, these guys too, guys, are to be watched, in fact I have included them, indeed we will include them in our, in our list. Okay. Good, good, good. There is another company that interests me, and it is this one. Obviously, I have seen all the others, but they have characteristics like non-growing revenue, so we won't look at them. Here we are. Montrose Environmental. This one, guys, is super super interesting because these gentlemen deal with garbage. By the way, precisely in the recommendations, someone on Instagram wrote: "Luca, why don't you look at some garbage companies?" Here it is. Uh, where is the agent? Perfect. Montrose is a company that operates in the waste management sector. It is committed to protecting the environment by providing services for waste and pollution management. Think of it as a superhero for our planet. Well, let's not exaggerate. Our AI agent got carried away, it was a bit romantic. Here's how it works. Cleaning, waste management, environmental services. Okay. Good. Very interesting. This is a theme that, at various cycles, works. The interesting thing is precisely this: that these gentlemen, after years of losing a lot of money, have had a lot of revenue and earned more. Let's also look here. Super interesting because you can see that the company is under the eyes of important investors because with an undervaluation of 448, it means that here someone has already recognized the value. I don't like this part here, even if it's an improvement, but the Altman Z-score is a bit low. Here too, the Piotrowski score worsens compared to the previous year to what should be the positive year. Hmm. The Beneish, however, apart from some possible mischief put in the financial statements in a quarter that is now past, is good. Let's look at the chart, and here we have a quite interesting situation, guys, because we see that the stock has fallen precisely in line with profits, but now profits are actually picking up. Okay. If we look at revenue, it continues to grow, so in this case I want to see, but there are no profits. For what reason? Let's go to the fundamental section and go to the raw section because I want to see. Ah, you see in this case the reason why they haven't made profits is not because they are investing a lot in research and development, because at least from these data it seems they are not investing in it, it seems something absolutely not important. Okay. And instead, operating expenses have grown a lot. Here you go. You see that operating costs have risen a lot. Okay. Interesting to see. Interesting this thing here. Let's also look at the transcripts. The last one is from May, so it's a bit old, but let's have the analysis done by. Let's translate: revenue reductions in the AP and R segment, which I don't know what it means, from the valuation permits and response segment have decreased due to the non-repetition of large projects from the previous year, they lost contracts. Decrease in net income. Adjusted diluted net income was 0.07, down from 0.16 in the previous year. Yes, they lost more money, decrease in margin, drop in. So they had higher costs, as we saw earlier from the data. Here you go. And risks and concerns. Regulatory uncertainty. The company is carefully monitoring the potential impacts of recent US EPA announcements of tariff policy changes, tariff impact, blah blah blah, in short. Future outlook. Continued demand. Sustained demand is expected, driven by private sector clients. Okay. SaaS initiatives, margin improvement, in short, M&A, mergers and acquisitions remain a fundamental part of long-term growth. You see that margins are a word they mentioned several times, so they will definitely focus on that because they mentioned it eight times during the transcript, meaning during the conference call. Ta ta, let's see, we recorded an excellent start to 2025 with record results, exactly in the first quarter, optimistic forecasts. The company benefits from sustained demand, particularly in the measurement, analysis, remediation, and reuse sector. Well, guys, interesting. Let's look at the overbought and oversold levels. Here we are. Here too, we don't have particular violent upward signals. At the lows, we haven't had any significant divergences, and therefore this is also a stock that, in my opinion, absolutely needs to be put on, uh, on the watchlist. Let's put it right away. Here it is, break even. Tac. And we keep them monitored. Guys, these stocks here, I repeat, we see them here in the break-even watchlist that I have built now. They are all extremely interesting companies because you can open any of them. Let's open, for example, Tuigli, here it is. If we look at it from a fundamental point of view, they are all companies that have very, very, very significantly growing revenue. Video, by the way, super interesting because it is very undervalued.