Transcription
Hi everyone. Welcome to Lays Real Talk. Welcome to Lay's Saturday Night Live. All right. I hope people are staying warm in this freezing cold. It is very cold. All right. What a week we had. Um, like I always say, there is never a dull moment in CCP politics. It's a world flooded with rumors, whispers, and leaks. And when it comes to China's military, I've said before that the rumor mill used to be about 80% accurate in predicting the downfall of top generals. At this point, I'd say it's closer to 85 to 90%. Because the rumor mill has hit again. Something big has happened this week um in Beijing.
On Thursday, I analyzed in my livestream the explosive rumors that the most powerful PLA figure along with the chief of the joint staff department um, actually, let me show you the pictures. Here we go. Have been uh arrested by Xi Jinping. Many people didn't believe it. My rational self didn't believe it either, even though my gut feeling told me that it was true. Well, early this morning, China's uh Ministry of National Defense confirmed it. Uh, both generals are now under investigation for serious violations of discipline and law. Here's the announcement and state media reported it. Um, now, this is the most severe leadership shock at the top of the CCP since the 1989 pro-democracy movement and the most serious military leadership crisis since 1972 when Mao's vice chairman of the central military commission, General Lin Biao, died while attempting to flee to the Soviet Union. So uh, it shocked many people.
So let's talk about the announcement because this is unprecedented. I mean, the event itself is unprecedented, but the announcement is unprecedented too. First is the speed. In past cases, Beijing always moved slowly. It took more than six months to announce the downfalls of Hu Jintao and uh, and it took months to acknowledge Ling Jue's death in 1972, and former defense minister Li Shangfu was removed in stages over many months, and same with Qin Gang's uh removal. The the former foreign minister Qin Gang. Beijing does not rush announcements like this because they usually need time to contain internal divisions, minimize risk, and control the narrative, and sometimes they need the time to do investigations. But this time, it took just four days. That tells us one thing very clearly. It's not a routine corruption case. It's not a standard uh power play in the political struggles. This is a counter-coup measure, something so urgent and destabilizing that the leadership felt compelled to announce it immediately and lock in the official narrative.
And the second uh point why this is uh so unusual is the tone. The announcement left no room for ambiguity. Um, well, I should say the follow-up editorial left no room for ambiguity. Eight hours after the announcement, the defense ministry's announcement, the PLA's official newspaper published an extraordinarily harsh editorial on its website, directly naming and condemning both men. Uh, the editorial repeatedly stressed that the entire military must maintain absolute alignment with Xi Jinping at its core and must obey Chairman Xi's command. But what really stood out was the language. The article, the article accused Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli of seriously betraying the trust placed in them by the party and the Central Military Commission. Let me put these two on the screen. Um, and it repeated the word "seriously" five times. Um, uh, and it also accused the two of severely undermining the CMC chairman responsibility system, which is just CCP jargon, uh, to mean uh, Xi Jinping's command, command power, and of, and also accused them of gravely damaging the party's absolute control over the military and posing a direct threat to the regime's ruling foundation. And it went on to accuse them of political wrongdoing and corruption, of shattering unity within the armed forces, and of causing severe damage to the PLA's political system, internal ecology, and combat readiness with extremely serious consequences. So this is not standard anti-corruption language. Taking it together, it directly confirms multiple rumors that Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were involved in a joint failed coup attempt against Xi Jinping.
So, you may say, well, what, what, what does that mean? I mean, haven't you been telling us that Zhang Youxia is the de facto uh uh commander of the PLA? So, if he's already in control, then why is he staging a coup attempt? Uh, well, I'll explain that in a little bit, but let me first tell you what this coup attempt is. Um, so according to a dissident and uh, who is a pro-democracy activist, her name is uh, Shen, who now lives in Canada. Uh, one of her trusted contacts in China informed her on January the 19th that Zhang Youxia had already been arrested, and that's one day before the rumors started spreading online. At the time, Ms. Shen was attending a a conference and didn't immediately reveal the information and publish it. She later released the full transcript of her conversation with that contact on X. She released it today, actually. Yeah, she published it today. And according to that account, this is what allegedly happened. So Zhang and Liu Zhenli planned to capture Xi Jinping on the night of January the 18th, Beijing time. The planned location was the Jingxi Hotel in Beijing, where Xi Jinping was expected to stay that night. Now, Jingxi Hotel is a hotel exclusively uh open to high-ranking officials. It's not a hotel open to the public. And Xi Jinping is described as having no fixed residence, frequently rotating between locations, including but not limited to Zhongnanhai, his Zhongnanhai residence, and Jingxi Hotel is one of the places. And the two generals reportedly believed Jingxi Hotel would be a relatively easy target. However, two hours before the operation, the plan was exposed. Someone leaked the plan to Xi Jinping, and he quietly left the hotel. At the same time, he secretly ordered counter-measures. Zhang Youxia's side did not know the operation had already been compromised.
Um, now, it remains unclear whether Xi Jinping had already planted informants close to General Zhang or a co-conspirator defected at the last minute. Um, back to the story. Unaware of the leak, Zhang Youxia's people proceeded as planned. They arrived at Jingxi Hotel and encountered forces already deployed by Xi. A gunfight reportedly broke out, and according to Ms. Shen's contact, nine of Xi Jinping's personal guards were killed. Dozens of Zhang Youxia's personnel were killed. At the time, Zhang's people reportedly still believed that Xi Jinping was inside the hotel. Now, following the failed operation, Xi Jinping uh allegedly moved with extreme speed. He ordered the immediate arrest of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli. He also ordered the simultaneous detention of all their family members. When asked why Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli had not arranged protection or evacuation for their families ahead of time, the explanation given was very simple. They believed the operation would succeed, and that's the first reason. And the second reason was Xi Jinping already had extensive surveillance around their families. Any unusual movement would have exposed their plan. Um, the source claims that Xi Jinping himself suffered severe psychological shock from the incident, and his mother and sister were informed and reportedly panicked. They were said to be staying at um, at at a place in Shenzhen, and security there was immediately tightened. And according to the source, Xi Jinping's families were so scared that they tried to convince him to step down.
Now, when asked why Zhang Youxia would take such an extreme risk, um, Ms. Shen's contact uh gave a very blunt answer. Zhang was forced into it. He believed his personal danger was imminent. Now, I want to answer this question. That's according to the uh, to Ms. Shen's uh account. I want to remind you of two incidents that I mentioned in my programs. There have been previous reports that Zhang Youxia survived an assassination attempt during his trip to Moscow in early December. Was it late November? Late November and early December, after which he left Russia early and detoured through Mongolia. And some reports even claim that he was helped, he was tipped by a third country. Nobody knows what that third country is, but some people suspect that it was the United States. Um, so the plan, the original plan was to tamper his uh, to to use the air force. I mean, Zhang Youxia traveled um on one of the uh, the air, the Chinese air force's uh airplane. So, the plan was to tamper his air control, air traffic control, to create an accident. So, soon after Zhang Youxia returned to Beijing, we've seen that the PLA's air force commander died under suspicious circumstances. So, that's one incident we know. At the same time, there was a major explosion in a tunnel outside Beijing. It was a highly censored accident, making it look very abnormal. So, there were reports that Xi Jinping's body double and some of his bodyguards were killed in that explosion. And that explosion did not look like a natural uh accident. It looked like, or it looked like there were, it was uh premeditated. So, it, so with all that history, you know, the two sides have been engaged in a life-and-death struggle.
So, okay. So what this really uh unleashed is that uh, I should say that Ms. Shen was not the only person, or is not the only person, who disclosed this information about the coup. Another dissident voice quickly corroborated details, or or corroborated the same claim that a failed coup attempt was the reason. So, this person was Mr. Du Bin, who now lives in Europe. And so, according to Mr. Du, Zhang Youxia, working in coordination with Liu Zhenli, planned to mobilize troops to overthrow Xi Jinping under the banner of saving, quote, "saving the party and saving the country." That plan, according to Mr. Du, collapsed after someone close to them informed on them. So, it's, it's almost an identical story as Ms. Shen said. Um, in other words, two independent accounts, separate sources are now echoing the same core storyline. Other sources further claim that Wang Xiaohong, who oversees the Central Security Bureau, there you go. So, yeah, you may wonder who actually carried out this arrest, right? Because we discussed that in um, in the livestream on Thursday. At the time, I said that uh, the the Central Security Guard, and then and then the um, and Wang Xiaohong's public security, they are no match for military personnel. But I was wrong. So, the two people, but the person who oversaw the operation was Wang Xiaohong. So, his Central Security Bureau and Wang Xiaohong's Ninth Bureau within the Ministry of Public Security played key roles in taking down the two generals.
As a result of the failed coup attempt, the reported counter-measures are extraordinary. Um, the original General Staff Command system in the PLA has been suspended. Command authority has been shifted to direct Central Military Commission control, issued through encrypted telegrams. All, yeah, all previous communication channels have been suspended. They now use encrypted telegrams to send out orders. The entire PLA has been placed on Level One combat readiness. All troop movements have been frozen. All officers and soldiers have been ordered to surrender their mobile phones. They're going to, they're going to go through everyone's phone, and units have been sent to, send into collective political study. So, the PLA as a whole is now doing political study. Uh, so, it, it doesn't look like a normal disciplinary response. This is wartime internal control. Um, Mr. Du warned that a counter-strike by remnants loyal to Zhang Youxia could happen at any time. He strongly advised friends in Beijing to limit going out and avoid Chang'an Avenue in particular. Chang'an Avenue is the street that goes right um, in front of Tiananmen. Um, and his warnings, his warning was stark. He said large-scale military mutinies could erupt. China's political situation is unstable and can change overnight. That's Mr. Du's assessment based on information he received.
Now, as of now, I, I have been following this all day today, trying to gather every bit of piece, every piece of information I could gather from Beijing. So, local residents have reported power outages in the capital city. It's not citywide. It could be targeted region or regions. And people also have spotted armored vehicles appearing on city streets. Um, and even small details stand out. The, the spokesman from the defense ministry who delivered the announcement was a new face, not the usual spokesman. Um, so that's another sign of internal disruption. So, there's no doubt about this anymore that elite CCP power struggles have entered an extremely dangerous new phase, and it's out in the open. It's for the public to view, right? Everyone, because once this announcement is made, everyone sees it. An arrest is not a victory for regime stability. It's a death knell of the CCP's internal red consensus. That's the end of any consensus that the CCP aristocrats can achieve. Um, what it signals is not consolidation, but a slide from high-pressure stability into high-risk loss of control. Because I had told you previously that the various factions are stuck in this high-pressure stability. You know, it's what I call a balance of terror. That's broken now. It's entirely broken. Um, Xi Jinping may have stopped Zhang Youxia's plan, but what lies ahead is far more dangerous for himself.
So, let me talk about um, the situation that Xi Jinping is facing. Let me talk about uh, why Zhang Youxia is different. Um, let me go back to his picture. Where is he? There he is. Well, he is not an ordinary general. He carries three hard labels that are nearly impossible for anyone in the PLA to replicate. First, he's a princeling, a red second-generation figure. His father, uh, Zhang Zongxun, was a founding PLA general who was once Mao's bodyguard, head of, um, head of security. So, that makes him special. And the second is he's a real combat veteran. He fought in the Sino-Vietnamese War with actual battlefield experience and won medals. Something that has almost disappeared entirely from today's top generals. Him and General Liu Zhenli are the same. He, um, the reason the two are so close is because they fought in the war together. General Liu was a subordinate of General Zhang. So, that makes them very rare in terms of their experience and credentials in the PLA. And the third is Zhang Youxia survived multiple leadership transitions. He was promoted during Hu Jintao's time and then rose to the absolute top during Xi Jinping's time. So, taken all of that together, this means something critical. A large part of Zhang Youxia's authority and influence did not come from Xi Jinping. Inside the PLA, he still represented, at least to some extent, the military's own internal logic and professional voice. But in recent years, the top leadership has demanded only two things: absolute political loyalty and extreme centralization of authority. And those two logics have been colliding head-on. So, Zhang Youxia was essentially one of the last figures in the PLA who still embodied um, a systemic voice from within the military itself. By arresting him, Xi Jinping has opened Pandora's Box. He's now confronting three major forces standing behind Zhang Youxia.
The first is the military. Like I said, uh, Zhang Youxia is an influential figure, or one of the most influential figures in the PLA. He joined the PLA at age 18 and served for over, what is he, 75? So, almost almost 60 years, over 50, like 58 years. Yeah, 57 years. And combined with his father's legacy, so his family's presence in the PLA spans nearly a century. The network of relationships involved is vast and deeply entangled. Xi Jinping is now moving toward a fight to the death with this enormous network, or this enormous force, including two groups of people. If the first group is those who actively opposed Xi alongside General Zhang, and the second group is those who did not oppose Xi, but are closely tied to General Zhang and his family. Now, Xi Jinping is unlikely to distinguish between them. Both groups are now in his strike zone. Even officers who took no part in any power struggle can no longer stay neutral because Xi, Xi Jinping will not spare them. There's a Chinese expression: "Better to kill 100 by mistake than let one slip through." Um, this, so the scope, the scope of repression will expand. Um, you know, he will, he will order to wipe them out completely, uproot them, eliminate future trouble forever. I'm sure that's what Xi Jinping is thinking about at this moment. So, think about it. That's almost like treating the entire military leadership as a potential enemy and placing himself in direct opposition to the institution that is supposed to uphold his rule. So, the question is unavoidable: Will the military simply wait to be arrested? And that's why so many people worry about military mutiny at this moment. Um, so that's one group or one force.
The second force is the princelings. Now, Zhang Youxia also had backing from the princeling faction, and they are now terrified. There's one person who has been very important to General Zhang, and that's Liu Yuan. I don't have a picture of him, but I've mentioned him many times. He is the most prominent princeling, um, and also one of the smartest, and he's the son of a former Chinese president, Liu Shaoqi, who was tortured to death by Mao. So, so again, he, he was a general. He is a general, retired general in the PLA. So, he would likely be among the first at risk because of the association. Now, if Xi Jinping can eliminate even a powerful princeling holding real authority at the top of the military, then the princelings have lost their last line of defense because everyone will be affected. So, if they unite and choose to fight for survival, the consequences for the regime will be deadly. Um, and then that trajectory now looks unavoidable. Um, when survival is on the line, this becomes a zero-sum fight to the death. That's group number two.
And group number three is the party elders. Some people blame the indecisiveness of the party elders, particularly that of Hu Jintao, for what has happened to General Zhang. Because the general has been adamant about forcing Xi Jinping into retirement at the Fourth Party Plenum. But the party elders, particularly Hu Jintao and maybe some other people, they feared the responsibility of being accused to end the regime, to bring, you know, to rock the boat, to bring down the regime. So, they allowed Xi Jinping to rule as a figurehead. Um, but the only person that they have exposed to risk is Zhang Youxia. So, we know from day one that as long as Xi Jinping is in power, Zhang Youxia will be the first to go if Xi Jinping is given any chance to stage a comeback. Um, however, now that the general is gone, Xi Jinping will inevitably strike at the party elders who supported the general. The likely outcomes are not hard to imagine. People like Wu Bangguo, Jiang Zemin are all in a precarious situation. In fact, um, I, I think in the past two weeks, yeah, maybe three, no more than three weeks, we've already seen former secretaries, longtime secretaries who worked for Wu Bangguo and Liu Yuan were being investigated in their retirement. Um, at the time, it looked very odd because why would people, why would the CCP investigate secretaries who worked for Wu Bangguo and Liu Yuan who have retired for a long time now? In hindsight, it made sense. That was a signal. For years, the princelings, the red second generation, the party elders have accumulated deep resentment towards Xi Jinping. Um, this purge of Zhang Youxia threatens to ignite all of those confrontations at once. So, these three forces, the military, the princelings, and the party elders, form the real foundation of CCP rule. Um, and among them, the military, the gun, remains the regime's ultimate lifeline, and everyone inside the system understands this. General Zhang was not only fighting for his own survival, he was also buying breathing room for these other power blocks, right? So, how they react now is decisive. Um, and but from Xi Jinping's perspective, however, there's no turning back once he chose to move against Zhang Youxia. There's no middle ground left for him. Actually, there's no middle ground left for either side. Um, so Xi Jinping can only keep going all the way to the end. He's going to be ruthless, and in doing so, you know, he can effectively bring down the regime on his own.
And then, let me talk about what's striking and interesting at this moment is not noise, but silence. Although I must say, it's only been what, 12, less than 12 hours. It's premature to say that people have not reacted, but based on information, I mean, I shouldn't say it's only been, it's only been officially announced for 10 hours or so, and it's midnight in China right now. So, people couldn't react, but the high-ranking officials have been notified of this for the past couple of days. So, it has been a couple of days since Zhang Youxia was arrested. China's official, how do you say, China's political landscape, or China's officialdom, has gone eerily quiet. Um, one example stands out: the CCDI website. CCDI stands for the Central Committee for Discipline Inspection. It is the CCP's organization responsible for investigating corrupt officials, right? So, if they are, they should be the ones playing, they should have a role in the investigation of Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli. But their website quietly deleted its post about Zhang Youxia's arrest. Let me share that with you. Here it is. Let me make this bigger. You can see. So, what's interesting is if you look at the article on the left, it, it, I circled that. It mentioned the, the Zhang Youxia. It's that editorial denouncing Zhang Youxia. It seems to be there, but once you click it, it says the page doesn't exist and has been deleted. Now, that's weird. Not posting something is one thing. Posting it and then removing it is something else entirely, right? So, why would the CCDI, the very organization responsible for investigating corrupt officials, post the editorial denouncing Zhang Youxia, people noticed today? And let me come back. And there's another anomaly: that is the harsh editorial attacking Zhang Youxia appeared on the PLA Daily homepage, but it was not written by the PLA editorial board or anyone from the PLA. It was sourced from Xinhua. Xinhua News. Yet, Xinhua itself did not place the article on its homepage. You would think that this is like a major news. Come on. I mean, this is the biggest news for the CCP in decades. Yet, Xinhua wrote the piece but didn't post it on its homepage. Um, and people took note of that. Um, so these are not technical glitches. They are signs of internal hesitation, fragmentation, and divisions. Um, other party factions, many of which have long suffered under Xi Jinping, may choose to stand aside and watch because they don't know which side will eventually prevail. Um, and not many are truly willing to gamble everything to help Xi Jinping. So, that's what's happening with the, with the, with the officialdom.
Now, the mood below the surface is quite dramatic. An open letter has surfaced. Let me show you the open letter. Um, it's quite long, but it's titled "Xi Jinping's Tyranny Has Reached a Dead End. There Is No Road Ahead." And this has been circulating, and the author cannot be verified, but the content matters because it reflects a shared psychological shift. The letter accuses Xi of purging rivals under the banner of anti-corruption, personal dictatorship disguised as a strong nation dream, economic plunder under the slogan of common prosperity. Um, and it describes a China that is isolated, diplomatically suffocating, economically, and monitored obsessively at home. Um, and it draws a sharp conclusion. This is it. It says, "This is not confidence. This is extreme fear." And this is not victory. It goes on to say, "This is end of the end of days madness." Most importantly, the letter directly appeals to military personnel, calling Zhang Youxia, calling those who, who, or calling Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli's subordinates to revolt, warning that today's purge of Zhang and Liu will inevitably extend to them tomorrow. It also calls on the Chinese public to get together and overthrow the regime and arrest Xi Jinping and his cronies, including the seven Politburo Standing Committee members. Um, whether this letter is authentic or not is almost beside the point. Um, what matters is why such language is resonating now. Right.
Now, let me talk about Taiwan because people immediately think of Taiwan as a direct consequence of this new development. Over the past 12 months, dozens of PLA generals have been removed. Two vice chairmen of the CMC are gone. The CMC normally, normally a seven-person body. I saw these pictures. Yep. All five of them are gone. Are gone. There are only two people left: Xi Jinping and the newly promoted vice chairman, Zhang Youxia, who is not a military commander. He's a political officer. There are only two left. And there's another picture. Um, yeah, this is at the 20th Party Congress when the committee was sworn in. There were six of them in the picture. Zhang Youxia led the swearing ceremony. Xi Jinping is not, I mean, there were six of them. So, five are out. Um, and also, there are only four active full generals left in the entire PLA. There were six, including, and now these two are gone. There are only four left. Who are they? Well, there's Zhang Youxia, right? The only member left in the CMC, the defense minister, Dong Jun, and then the two newly promoted generals, one is the commander of, one is the commander of the Eastern Theater Command, and the other is the Central Theater Command commander. So, those two who were promoted, I think a few weeks ago. So, there are only four full generals left. So, that raises an unavoidable question: Is the PLA even capable of launching a major external operation right now? Some argue that Xi Jinping's sudden move against Zhang Youxia may be aimed at Taiwan, because it's known that he doesn't see eye to eye with General Zhang over the Taiwan issue, or over military operations against Taiwan. There's a document circulating online that looks like a PLA internal document, supposedly it's from Zhang Youxia, saying that no military personnel should provoke any confrontation with Taiwanese defense forces. And then it also suggests that all confrontation with the Taiwanese should be avoided. I mean, we can't really authenticate that document. I don't know if it's real or not, but it's generally known that even though Zhang Youxia may go along with Xi Jinping's war plan to empower himself and his troops, but in his heart, he's against war. That could be a contention point between the two, and that's why that's another reason why Xi Jinping wants to get rid of Zhang Youxia. Now that he has succeeded in getting rid of Zhang Youxia, people argue that he may need a major military operation as a follow-up event to reestablish his control of the PLA. And a war is very convenient. Um, and also, people argue that the timing seems to be perfect for Xi Jinping, as American forces are tied up in the Middle East right now, and Trump is busy negotiating or managing disagreements and discord among allies over Greenland and many other issues. So, some people may suggest to Xi Jinping, or Xi Jinping may perceive that it's the perfect timing for him.
Then, then comes some details I want to share with you. Now, on January 23rd, that's yesterday, CCTV Military Channel released a propaganda video in which a soldier said, "I came to the southern, I came to the southeastern coast to go to war, and today my dream is about to be realized." Listen to that. That's something, right? And then soon after, the Southern Theater Command Air Force released another video with a chilling line. "I have an image of that." Where is that? Where did it go? Oh, this one. This one is very interesting. And it says, it, the quote says, "From this moment on, no one is allowed to speak loudly to me, or no one is allowed to speak to me disrespectfully, or no one is allowed to scream at me." It's a very colloquial expression, and people immediately sensed that this reflects Xi Jinping's sentiment after taking down Zhang Youxia. That's exactly how he would, how he feels at the moment. And then Chinese media published an article saying that, explaining what this line actually meant. It praised the symbolism of that line. It went on to say the imagery, because the line, they said, came from a cartoon, a cartoon character, or a cartoon character made. The line, and then there was a rabbit, a rabbit, an eagle soup, and an octopus chicken. Basically, they are subtle, they're symbolisms representing China, the United States, and Japan. So, together, the Chinese media article said that these signals don't prove, uh, no, they say that this, this symbolism, this line, sends a strong message to the Americans and the Japanese that the Chinese demand respect. So, all of these put together don't prove war is imminent, but they intensify uncertainty at the most dangerous moment.
Okay, so many China analysts, experts, and watchers like myself have different interpretations about what has happened in the past couple of days in Beijing. But almost all of us agree on one thing, and that is the arrest of Zhang Youxia is not the end, it's the beginning of something big. I think the CCP's quick announcement has publicly admitted its internal infighting has made it out in the open, right, for everyone to see. So, the false image of party unity is completely shattered. The Chinese have an expression describing the situation right now. They say that arresting Zhang Youxia is like a snake swallowing an elephant. Xi Jinping may have managed to swallow it, but the real question is, can he digest it? By moving against Zhang Youxia, Xi is no longer targeting individuals. He is effectively opening fire on the entire CCP power structure, like I mentioned earlier, the military, the elite class, the party elders. So, that is a classic warning sign of a regime approaching its endgame. And the most likely outcome is not consolidation, but mutual destruction. Xi Jinping and the CCP regime entering history's dustbin together. So, that's what I have gathered for you. Um, let me know. I mean, it is very surprising. But it is, I think we should, I don't know how things will evolve from here. A mutiny is certainly possible. So, all we can do is keep a close eye on what happens next. All right, let me see if people have questions for me, comments. All right. Very interesting. Um, you know what? I could, I want to tell you about the long term. I mean, even let's just, since we're on the topic of Taiwan, let's just, because I talked a lot about the political struggles, right? Xi Jinping will face internally, but let's put that aside. Let's just talk about the technical aspect of the damage to the PLA that he has done by arresting Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli. I mean, of course, if Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were staging a coup against Xi, of course, he's going to fight back. But, but, but the long-term consequences to the PLA is this. Now, over the long run, this kind of purge doesn't just remove people. It rewires how the entire military thinks and behaves. First, generals stop thinking about how to win wars. They start thinking about how to survive politically. Right? So, professional judgment is gone. It's replaced by guesswork. The real question is no longer, "Is it militarily sound?" but "What does the top leader want to hear right now?" or "What's the right thing to say at the moment?" Right? So, it may look stable in peacetime, but in a real crisis, it becomes lethal. And secondly, decision-making collapses completely because no one will be making decisions. Everyone will be scared. Mid-level officers only execute orders, but they are forbidden to adjust or think. So, so there's, and no one dares to correct anything. So, that's what's actually, that's already happening in the PLA. And the third is the risk of external adventurism, right? Because no one dares to apply the brakes. And that could become, things could become out of control and extremely dangerous because every mistake is allowed to snowball, right? And every misreading becomes dangerous. So, over time, the consequences are tremendous. And think about that, right? So, I, I think it's just, that's the technical aspect of this purge. It's self-destructive, anyways. Okay, let me see what people have for me. Someone said, "Is this punishment for what happened in Venezuela?" There's one. Some people claim that that is the case. Some people say that Xi Jinping reacted to what has happened to Maduro and believes that some of his top generals might be colluding with the Americans. I think it's possible. If the rumor that Zhang Youxia was tipped by the Americans, that his plane was targeted for an assassination, then Xi Jinping can argue that Zhang was colluding with the Americans. So, who knows? It's possible. Actually, someone mentioned that a former US military intelligence officer commented a couple of days ago that the Chinese PLA is subject to, is about to have a mutiny, a couple of days ago. So, if that, you know, think about it, if the Americans have already come to that assessment, then something they know something that the public didn't, obviously. All right, let's see questions, comments. Someone said, "Is Zhang Youxia dead? Will he ever be seen again?" I don't know. It depends on what the other, what the other three forces are doing to support him. You know, what is his subordinates? Let me take a sip of water. So, okay. Feels better. I don't know. I hope not. So, has Zhang Youxia actually been physically arrested? Um, well, according to the announcement, yes. But there have been also claims that he escaped the arrest. This is why the Chinese rumor mills are getting out of control. The very person who has consistently claimed that Zhang Youxia was arrested today posted, made an announcement that he somehow, his families and his subordinates were arrested, but somehow he was able to escape. I don't know. But even the person who made, who made this revelation said that he didn't even believe it. Um, so I, that's why I didn't really include that in my presentation. But if you ask me if he's actually physically arrested, according to the announcement that we've seen, it sounds like it, but there are other people saying that he's not. So, who knows? I would think that he is arrested. Okay. Um, question for Lay. How can Xi Jinping go from house arrest to being able to arrest Zhang Youxia? Could the party elders be responsible for his arrest? Um, yeah. Because what we're seeing is developments or progression of their relationship, the three-way relationship over a course of, what, nine months? Because Xi Jinping was suspected to be under house arrest in what, April and May last year? Remember, he received the visiting head of state from, what, from, from Kazakhstan? Was it Kazakhstan? One of the Central Asian countries. He was not, he received him at his home, remember? Um, that Xi Jinping really suffered tremendously during that time. And then, I think the party elders, the party elders didn't allow or didn't agree to allow Zhang Youxia to force Xi Jinping out. They allowed him to continue to hold on to all three positions at the party's Fourth Plenum. At the time, we said, or I have said, that the person whose life is on the line is Zhang Youxia, because he has everything to lose, while the party elders will be in a better position because they're retired, they don't hold any power. So, when, and also later, I heard rumors that Hu Jintao might have compromised with Xi Jinping, because Xi Jinping has made several gestures to promote Hu Jintao's son, Hu Haifeng. So, Xi Jinping effectively divided the party elders' camp by offering something to Hu Jintao. And Hu Jintao carries a lot of weight because he's the highest-ranking party elder right within the system. So, so things started to go downhill for General Zhang after the party's Fourth Plenum. Yeah. Or and after the military parade. Do I think it would be a, it would be reckless and very big mistake for the CCP to attack Taiwan considering that Taiwan could retaliate by blowing up the Three Gorges Dam? Uh, of course, it's, it's a big mistake. I don't think the CCP will attack Taiwan Island. I think they may do something like taking the Kinmen Island or Matsu Island, you know, do something like that to test American resolve in defending Taiwan. All right. Um, okay. Lot of discussion. Do we have any idea? Someone forwarded Chris forwarded me a question. Do we have any idea how politically motivated the younger military leaders are? Do they really believe in Xi? Some do and some don't. Um, of course, there are those who believe in Xi, believe in Xi. Otherwise, Zhang Youxia wouldn't have informants near him. I mean, the only reason Zhang Youxia lost to Xi is he has people who betrayed him. Um, and that's, that's deadly. So, that means there are those within the PLA who believe in Xi. So, just to answer your question. Someone said, "Is it true that if you say 'boyfriend' in a phone conversation in China, it's automatically changed to the word that means a sibling, like brother or sister?" I have not heard about that. Is that true? Can someone tell me? Although I have not called anyone in China, so I wouldn't know. That's an interesting question. Okay. Um, all right. Daniel Plavosen Lei tried to convince everyone that Xi Jinping is losing his power. It is obvious now that he still very much calls the shots and probably will for a long time. Um, I have said that he, he is losing his power. Um, I mean, you could still take down your opponent who tried to stage a coup against you even when you have lost power, you know. Um, if you compare the Xi Jinping today to the Xi Jinping two to three years ago, his power is not comparable at all. Um, but that doesn't mean that he's necessarily losing the battle with Zhang Youxia, because General Zhang is in a very precarious situation. When the party elders decided to keep Xi Jinping around as a figurehead, that effectively put Zhang Youxia in a very, very dangerous situation because Xi Jinping will certainly do everything to take him out. A weakened leader can still do lethal things. Let's put it that way, right? An injured animal can still hurt people. So, um, and in fact, an injured animal could, or injured beast can do more harm because he's losing control. He's going wild. So, all right. Seek the truth. The elders had their chance at the Plenum and supported Zhang to remove Xi. They blinked, and now that this hesitation will come back and bite them. They're next to be silenced. Yes, I think there, I think a lot of people think that this may not be a bad thing because if they have, think about it this way, if they have replaced Xi Jinping with someone else and yet they don't have the determination to undergo political reforms, then it's the same. Then we just have a new system without Xi Jinping that may look gentler on the outside, but will become the same in a year or so, and that's very deceptive, right? So, so keeping Xi Jinping around may not be a bad idea because everything he does is bringing down the regime. Just like, remember my guest during my anniversary video, Tao Kai, he said that he learned, he thinks Xi Jinping is an effective disruptor to end the regime because everything he does, he, he destroys, he destroys it. So, this may not be bad. This may not be bad. Whatever happened in the past couple of days in Beijing is not bad for the rest of the world at all because the fact that General Zhang and Xi Jinping have been fighting to the death is not a bad thing to the rest of the world because they have effectively paralyzed the Chinese military, and that's a good thing. Um, so that's, I mean, the only thing is some people will suffer, like General Zhang, but then, so that's how, that's how I look at it. It's not necessarily a bad thing. All right. Um, how about we end it here? Um, I need to take a break. I get tired of CCP politics. It's ugly. And I've been reading, listening, writing all day today. So, I need a break. How about I enjoy my weekend from from now on? And I thank you for joining me, and I'll see you next week. Hopefully, the world will be a better place next week. Okay, bye. Thank you. Bye. Bye.