Transcription
Hello everyone. So, we're going to do a quick update. I know I always say "quick" when it's not always the case, but this time, we'll really try. So, this is an update on Bitcoin. To approach the last session of the week, or at least the last session with liquidity, since after that we'll have the weekend. We currently have a price action that is quite interesting. So, the curve that shows us the real-time price quotation is showing us interesting things, because we have exactly what we imagined. That is to say, here, when I left you yesterday morning, we were around here. I told you we had some strength on the price on a 15-minute timeframe, and we saw that we had a nice trendline forming, that we would very likely break it downwards, and that in any case, breaking it downwards was our best scenario, to do a sort of pullback here on these levels around 93100. Boom, we took off again, and above all, we came to attack the 90900 dollars. I explained to you, we had liquidity showing up right here. Boom, I'll show them to you, but here, here, here. You see, we almost wicked on all the liquidity. Well, not exactly on this one. In reality, there isn't a huge need to recover it because if we look at the liquidation level, you see that there, we fed on a lot of liquidations. The majority of liquidations are now above the price. Okay? So, that's pretty perfect. If we look at the very short term, over the last 12 hours, we have a range that seems to be forming. So, of course, we have positions above, positions below. But if we look and zoom out a bit, well, 24 hours, yes, it's already telling. We see that we've recovered quite a bit of liquidity below, and that in fact, what remains is mainly the liquidity above the price. So, that's very healthy. It means that the excess optimism, etc., has been swallowed up on the last candles. So, in fact, here we had quite a few people positioning themselves, well, as always, a bit late. Here we had the big bullish expansion. We have people here positioning themselves to buy, etc., starting to leverage, putting their stop here or here. Naturally, what does the market do? It comes to get them before taking off again. Okay. It's quite classic. And now, this increasingly validates the thesis of having a bullish continuation, okay? This could happen during Friday's session. Often, Friday is quite directional, okay, so bullish or bearish, but we have volatility before the weekend close. So, we'll have to see a bit what's going on. We'll take a quick look at the American markets because they might be the ones to give the overall market direction. Here too, on the American market, there is strength. You can see it. Now, the American market is much less tricky than the crypto market. Here, you see, we have the famous trendline if we look at one hour. But more importantly, we are really below these resistances. So, one of two things. Either we do something like this and then we just shake up the market a bit, go a bit lower, maybe close the gap that is just below us. If I show it to you right here, you see this gap in green. Boom, I'll show it to you here. We close this gap, so maybe go a bit lower than that. Boom, consolidate in there, take off again, maybe stop there, and leave ourselves some fuel for next week. Or, we've had enough, and we're seeing a real directional move, with the recovery of our ATHs, our support level, our major resistance level here at 6870 points, or even the 6900 level. Honestly, the bullish rebound scenario seems the most relevant. We'll have to see. It's true that there is still a small gap below. Most of the time, you see that gaps tend to be absorbed. V-bottom gaps, we sometimes leave them. So, you don't necessarily have to be particularly attached to that. But gaps, when we have consolidation phases, obvious trendlines, etc., it's quite probable that we'll go and recover it. So, will we go and recover it before taking off again? Let's see how many percent we're talking about. Well, it's 1.1%. It's entirely possible to have a candle of indecision. Okay. If we look here in daily, it could look something like this. And here, we have a hammer. Well, if you've studied chart patterns, you know that it's not ideal. So, here, we might have a candle like this with an opening here and potentially a close here, and then we'll have a nice red candle here. Okay, a lower wick, but then swallowed up, at least partially, for the day. So, we'll have to see on the Bitcoin side, if we have that, well, it could bring us a bit lower, but on the Bitcoin level, there's no real interest, I mean financial interest, in going lower. You see that here, what's happening over the last week of trading, if we look at everyone, everyone is selling, and everyone is selling at the levels of 94 to 96000, and then well, it's an open door to a much more massive liquidation, because after that, we have liquidity, we saw it up to over 100,000 dollars. So, after that, well, we have liquidity that is located just below 83, we talked about it again, so I won't dwell on it. In any case, at the price action level, you see that the fact of going down and then consolidating again is a very good signal. Especially since here, I wanted to bring up this point. Many have drawn parallels with the CVDs. Okay? CVD, that's the cumulative volume delta. It's the difference between open long positions and open short positions. That is to say, you know that at any moment when there is a transaction, there is a buyer against a seller. The buyer buys from the seller, and so at any moment, we should have a cumulative volume delta that is flat. Okay? Because when we have a buyer, we have a seller. So, if you sum them up, you'll have as many buyers as sellers. That seems logical, except that you have buyers who are limit orders and sellers who are limit orders, and buyers who are market orders. If that's not clear to you, I invite you to watch the video on crypto exchanges where I explain the difference between different types of orders, and specifically between market orders and limit orders. But to simplify understanding a bit, I'll explain. A limit order is an order where you define a price level. So, in fact, you'll say, for example, I'm shorting the market, meaning I'm selling on the market if the market reaches my price level. Okay? I estimate that if we go back to that price level, okay, it will certainly be to do this and to sell. Okay, whether right or wrong, we're not discussing that here. In this case, it would rather be wrong, but we won't talk about it, we'll talk about the strategic part. Okay? So, here, if I place a limit order at this point, I place a limit order, I display my price 94159.2 dollars. I say I'm short, I don't know, one Bitcoin. Okay, so I take a selling position of 94159 dollars. If the market drops by 1%, okay? Well, I'll gain 940 dollars. Okay? 1% of my position. If the market goes up while I was selling, meaning I was betting on a decrease, we say in that case that I was short, I will lose 1% of my position, I will lose 940 dollars. Okay? So, what will happen is that when we reach my price, I will have someone here who will buy, okay, buy my order. So, I will have a buyer facing me who is a seller. But for a buyer to arrive, well, we will have a market buyer. Okay? Someone who clicks on buy, and the exchange in question will have to find a counterparty. Okay? So, if the person clicks on buy at market, they won't define a price level. What they want is to buy. Regardless of the price, they want to buy at price levels around the current price. So, when the market is here, okay, at 94159.2 dollars, which is my limit order, someone will click on long, okay? Long means to buy. And so, we will have a market order that will be considered a buy, and a sell order that will be considered a limit. And here, the orders we see here and here are only market orders, okay? Limit orders are not counted. So, this allows us to have a curve because we are able to say, well, here there are mainly market orders that are selling on spot markets and buying on derivative contracts. But what it means if you see a price stabilization here. Look, for example, from here, okay, from 94200 dollars, you see the CVD here that keeps decreasing. This means that at market, people see the market going down, Bitcoin going down, and they click on sell, sell, sell, sell, sell. You see that the market goes down a bit. Okay? Hence the fact that, well, naturally, people click on sell, so at some point, well, the market absorbs it, but not necessarily entirely. But you see that here, since that moment, we have a Bitcoin that is slowly rising, while here we have a CVD that continues to fall. Okay? What this means is that we have a lot of people who have limit orders. Okay? Right here, right here, you see, you have a lot of limit orders that are right here. And so, obviously, when the market comes to them and people say sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, it makes this curve go down. But if there are many limit orders here, well, the market absorbs it and rebounds. It absorbs, it rebounds, it absorbs, it rebounds. Boom, boom, boom. And in the end, what does it show us? It shows us that there is demand on limit orders. Okay? The fact that we have a price stabilization on a decreasing CVD means what? It means that we certainly have large portfolios positioned here, and they have placed limit orders. Because you know that everyone places limit orders. Well, it's very rare for people to place market orders, and it's often rather people who react emotionally. Okay? Because most of the time you have a plan, and the principle of having a plan is to say I buy at this point or I sell at this point. Moreover, personally, I explained it in the strategic training, but personally, when I enter a position, even if I were to enter a position now, I would enter with a limit order. Okay? I would even place a limit order perhaps exactly at the current price levels, but I always place a limit order because it allows me to avoid slippage. Okay? What is slippage? It's that if I want to enter with a large position, well, if I click on market, well, it will have to try to find sellers. The market will force itself to find sellers, and so sometimes there are no sellers, and so it will drive up the price until it finally finds a seller, and so I will have bought much higher than I initially wanted to buy, and that doesn't suit me. Now, this doesn't exist on Bitcoin, but on altcoins, it does. And this, obviously, becomes a reflex now. So, regardless of the asset I buy, I always buy with a limit order, especially since you have lower fees. In short, here, having price behavior like this, having a price that rebounds and makes a nice structure, because here, we have a nice structure, a real wick, and then a very strong rebound, okay? With here a buy and supports that are held, okay? The support here was immediately re-entered and immediately held. And to see that despite a falling CVD, it means that there is demand here, okay? There is real demand. We see here on the aggregated futures Biden Ask Delta that we are mostly in the red, and this means that we have a lot of people who are selling, and who think that it's just a rebound and that we're going lower. So, honestly, I think that during the day, we should go higher, at least around 94,000. And at that point, we'll need to be vigilant, especially if we re-enter. Okay. If we do this and then we do this, well, we'll have to expect to probably go lower and perhaps liquidate the levels we reached here. We'll know a bit more in the coming hours. I will of course keep you informed. I am monitoring this, obviously. I am quite active during these moments because we are in a phase where we are establishing the bottom. I wanted to share an indicator that is hyper hyper hyper important. I mentioned it a bit in the YouTube video. Some may have already seen it, but it's this one, the Tesser Ratio Channel. It's an indicator of truly remarkable relevance. It's obviously relevant because it means something real. Okay? Not just an indicator like any other oscillator. What it does is it's an oscillator, like an RSI. The principle is to look at the momentum on Stable Coin issuance. So, when I have this curve going down, okay, it means I have a liquidity withdrawal dynamic, but not the liquidity you hear about in monetary policy from Jerome Powell, etc. This is real market liquidity. You buy cryptos with what? You buy cryptos with stable coins, USDT, USDC. So, what we're going to look at, what we're going to try to look at, is this Stable Coin issuance. Okay? I'll show it to you right here. You see the Stable Coin issuance, it's here. So, you see that day by day, more and more stable coins are being printed, okay? And so, we have 186 billion dollars of USDT and 78 billion dollars of USDC on the markets. And so, what we're going to try to look at is whether we're in a dynamic like this where we have a liquidity withdrawal, as you see right there, a liquidity withdrawal. Are we more in a dynamic like this where we have a small increase? But you see that it's weakening, okay? It's increasing, but it's increasing timidly. And you see that this indicator shows us that. It shows us that it's increasing, but timidly. In fact, you have the price and its mathematical derivative. Okay? Well, we're going to look at that. We're going to look at the price acceleration. And you see that here, despite the fact that issuance, we have more and more stable coins, well, we were perhaps printing 10 billion per week, then 6 billion per week, then 3 billion per week, then 2 billion per week. So, in fact, there is a dynamic of reduction in printing. Okay? In absolute value, it's increasing. In derivative, it's decreasing. Okay? We have a negative derivative. And so, here, this is what you see right here with the decrease here. And then, we have a re-acceleration. You see here, it accelerates, and then boom, it accelerates much more. And you see this indicator accelerating, and then boom, it starts accelerating very strongly until a point where we have not only a slowdown in printing but also the second parameter of this indicator is the fact that we have USDT coming onto the market, this curve is falling. Okay? This means that USDT dominance is falling. This is very important. And here, we have USDT dominance starting to rise again. What does this mean? It means that people who own cryptos and stable coins, let's say you own 1000 dollars in crypto and 100 dollars in stable coins, well, here you will stop investing your stable coins. You will keep your 100 dollars of stable coins because you are not confident in the market. And then the market falls, and you see Bitcoin falling. You say to yourself, well, in fact, I had 1000 dollars of Bitcoin and 100 dollars of stable coins, well, I'll switch to 600 dollars of Bitcoin and 500 dollars of stable coins. So, in fact, you will increase the dominance of your stable coins, your USDT, and so this curve will rise, and this shows when the market is protecting itself. And this is what we see here with a phase of decline, with the moment when, in terms of monetary issuance, we slow down a bit. Okay? At least, we stabilize, and on top of that, we have a USDT dominance that is increasing again. And so, here, we have a bearish dynamic. This simply means that it's negative for the market. It's negative for the market because people tend to cover themselves, and so more stable coins are coming onto the market. So, it's a very, very powerful indicator. Frankly, I think I've only seen it, apart from a few Twitter accounts, from a few people on X in English-speaking circles. In any case, it's very, very rare to see it, and yet it gives very relevant signals. If we look a bit, if we zoom out. Well, it works especially well in daily. So, here you have it, I shared it in the TradingView indicators of Medusa. You see, when we are very low, okay? The lower we are and the more we have a reversal, the more it means something, the more powerful it is, okay? Obviously, when you have a reversal here, it's also powerful, okay? You see right there, we had a reversal at that time before a bullish expansion. But obviously, it has less value than when we are really low and have a reversal. It means we had a very strong excess, and above all, it means we have a lot of fuel because we have a lot of stable coins that are dormant and ready to be reinvested in the market. Okay, let's look here. Here, boom, I'll just. Here, we can take, at most, this one too. Boom, there. So, we'll just look at these phases, okay? So that I can show you. Okay, we'll zoom in. So, here we are. So, you see, we have two oscillators. We have a crossover. A crossover that occurred around here. Okay. Well, we had a first one here that was confirmed here. Okay. Well, we had a stagnation here. Well, let's take this one. You see that there was a big break afterwards. So, like any indicator, you shouldn't take it alone. But you see, if we zoom in a bit more, we'll switch to 1 hour. Now, in 1 hour, I'll show you something. Here. Right there. So, we have small arrows that are shown, okay? You see the small green arrows here and here. These are supposedly the arrows that show you the buy levels. Okay? So, this is precisely what we had here with the famous break right there. What it tells us, boom, let's look right there. What it tells us is that potentially here, we could be in a situation like this or like this. Okay? That is to say, here, we are currently at an interesting point because I haven't shown you, but there's a small arrow that has just appeared. So, potentially here, we are here. This could mean we'll have a rebound then a bearish leg then take off again. Or, like here, we had the rebound, we'll have a small consolidation before taking off more strongly. Obviously, we can't know that in advance. It will mainly be the price dynamics and other indicators that will tell us. But you see that here, well, we have had, well, strength right there. Okay, we had the green arrow, we had a small correction, but here we are rather well oriented, and you see that the dynamic is quite strong. Okay? While on the other indicator, well, the curves had gotten a bit closer, had stayed a bit at the same levels for a while, but then we had a clear break, and when we started to really diverge, well, that's when we had the big expansion. Okay? Here, you see what I was telling you, we stayed quite close for a while, and then when these two curves started to really diverge and really give a dynamic, well, that's when we had this famous rebound that brought us right here, and then well, it didn't prevent us from having a correction, okay, and a return to the highs. If we look at other examples we might have had during this phase, okay, of 2024, so here we had, well, right here, an indicator, boom. Now, you see that here we were very, very high on this indicator. Boom! If I zoom out. Well, yeah, you have the lines here in green and red. Well, here, we were a bit too high, so in any case, it wasn't really the best time to buy. Okay, here we noted it right here in daily, this blue line. Well, here, we had a green arrow. You see that afterwards it propelled us much higher. And here, we had a second bearish leg before having a recovery and having another green arrow, another green arrow again, and so on, which brought us higher. Okay? In any case, it means something. It means that the market is ripe for a bullish dynamic on the price and to regain some monetary issuance. You see that, for example, here, we stayed very flat. Okay? This was, I believe, the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank, here or here, I'm not sure. In any case, you see that here in September, we had an inversion of the dynamic of this curve. We had this green arrow here, which indicated that potentially it was a turning point, and then we went straight up, and then we went from 25,000 to almost 35,000 in a straight line, and then we took off, we didn't have any dips until we reached 45,000, okay? So, we'll have to see a bit what happens, but you see that it's quite interesting and reassuring to think that we seem to have touched the bottom on the monetary issuance dynamic and portfolio protection. So, we'll have to see how it compiles. It's possible we'll have something like this. You see? Boom, hop, and something like this. So, in a medium-term vision, so to speak, we could say we don't care. We'll try, if we have something like this, to protect ourselves when we get here, in order to avoid losing too much capital on a second bearish leg. So, thank you. Have a good Friday and a good weekend, and if there's anything interesting, we'll keep in touch. Thanks.