Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review with different closes, especially considering what we observed yesterday. Bearish closes, but which could be rather interesting depending on what will be done in the coming days. We will focus mainly on that, and then we will look at altcoins that you asked to analyze. I noted Ena, Tao, and Avax.
So, I'll start here with BTC. Yesterday, I made a video, there, we were quite low, I told you we would have to watch the closes, especially the weekly close. I remind you, I repeat it quite often, but it's really because it's a key level for me. As long as we don't go below this level, I remain bullish in the long term. We can very well enter a larger range here on the weekly, but if we start to close and accept being below 100,000 dollars, that would not be great, and for me, we could go much lower.
So for now, yes, we are breaking 107, which shows us a breakout from the range downwards. We still had a small buying reaction yesterday at the end of the day. We saw it here with the US session which was rather bullish. Okay. We retested 107,000 dollars. We see here that we have a wick that represents more than 50% of the candle. This is something I look at quite often. It can send a rather strong signal. This is the case, for example, with this wick here where we simply had, well, we see a wick that represents more than 50% of the candle, which shows us twice a weakening on the buyers' side and especially a return of sellers. This is the case, for example, here, you see at this level a wick that represents more than 50% of the candle at this level as well. So generally, it's not specifically the pattern. You have to align. There is no pattern that tells us we have to align. But it's an interesting pattern to note because if we go into a bit more detail, it simply means that there was a buyer awakening that tried to break out but was sold off due to failure. Okay? Either the buyers were not strong enough and demand weakened, or on the other hand, and this is often the case, sellers woke up and surpassed demand. Okay? In any case, it shows us that it's an area of interest. So here, we see that it's an area of interest. Here, it's an area of interest. Here, it's an area of interest. Here, for example, we have a buying area of interest, given that we have a rather significant lower wick. Here, we had, well, here, consequently, it's an area of interest, of interest, and so on. Does it work every time? No, I remind you, a trading pattern is not enough to make a decision, okay? Whether it's short, medium, or long term. It must be coupled with location zones, market context, good risk management. You must know what you are doing. It's not possible to say, "Here, I'll take a pattern, for example, a W structure, and I'll say all W structures, whether on one minute, 15 minutes, or 1 hour, I'll buy them." No, that won't work, and you won't have a profitable strategy that way. Frankly, otherwise, it would be too easy. Okay, everyone would do it, and it would go well. Markets are not like that. So, this type of pattern must be coupled with something else. Here, as I say, the pattern is rather interesting because we have a buyer awakening. Now, we remain in a bearish trend, and above all, we have broken 107,000 dollars. We have gone below.
Here, I could rather draw a zone. I don't like drawing lines here because when you draw a support level or a resistance level, it's never a line. It's always zones of intervention. Okay? And we see that we have gone below this level, that we tried to hold it here, and ultimately we broke it. So we are still in this bearish trend with lower lows and lower highs. I haven't put this in red, but I can put it in red. This appears to be a resistance zone, and for now, we are in a trend that remains bearish. We can clearly see here that the lows and highs are still getting lower, and we are in a context where we need to be cautious. We need to be cautious. I've been repeating this for a long time lately. I'd rather perhaps be poorly positioned, meaning entering a bit higher, but having a more bullish signal. Okay? Rather than positioning myself haphazardly and potentially regretting it. In any case, that's how I see things, knowing that I still have crypto exposure with relatively low purchase prices. So for now, I'm more in the mindset of "Okay, I'm waiting, I'm patient, I'm observing, I don't want to commit too much capital now because we are a bit in a zone that can be interesting from a location perspective. We are at a support level, that's a fact. But from a market context, feeling, from an analytical perspective, and many other factors, I prefer to be cautious. From a cyclical perspective, we have seen that we are in zones that can be, well, rather complicated moments. But if there's a signal, I'll be the first to change my mind and tell you, "Here, we're returning to a bullish signal, it's rather good, and we can go back to looking for the next resistance zones." For now, there's a lack of buying reaction.
If I also put moving averages here, well, we see that we are still below the 15-minute tunnel. We have been below it for about 4 days now, since we broke on Tuesday and were rejected, and this is a level that still acts as resistance. We can see it clearly, even today. So here we are in a bit of a compression, we are above the daily tunnel, the daily pivot point. We are below the 15-minute tunnel. A small compression is underway. We'll see the resolution. It's worth noting that it's the weekend, and generally, weekends have very little volatility. It can happen that we have volatility, but generally, markets are a bit calmer. So, that's it for me on BTC, I remain generally wary. Okay? That doesn't mean I can't have short-term setups, whether they are reversal setups or trend continuation setups on intraday. But, either I'll take an intraday position that I won't keep for long, but we are in such a phase of uncertainty that I won't particularly re-expose myself currently in the long term. Already, BTC, as I said, we are high, and above all, I prefer to wait for a stronger, more significant signal, to have convictions, even if it means buying back a bit higher. So, that's how I currently see the evolution of BTC. I'm not trying to predict, I'm not trying, like some, to tell you, "Yes, BTC will crash, it will do this." I've even seen videos online saying the market top will arrive on this specific date, giving a precise day. That's not possible. There is no trader, no investor who tries to predict to the day when the top will be. We can talk about cyclicity as we saw. Historically, we often have a top in October-November. That was the case here. That was the case here. It's already a season. We're talking about 2-3 months. It's not like the top will be on October 3rd, November 11th, or I don't know what. No, there's no point. And that's clearly playing the lottery. It's for buzz. That's not the case here. I'll tell you, I could make a video. "The top will happen." But already, the probability that I'm right is very, very low. And even if I'm right, most people will be like, "Ah, I told you so, etc., it's luck." Okay? It's like those who sold precisely at $68,000 here, precisely at $125,000 at this level. Or who bought at the bottom to the exact dollar, that's luck. And so, they can show their positions. Yes, there you go, etc., it's clearly luck. Okay. Your goal is not to buy at the exact bottom, sell at the exact top every time. It can happen, it can happen. I've already bought Ether for about $5, I think. But I don't tell myself, "Wow, I found the ultimate zone." No, it's the luck factor. Of course, automatically, if you are consistent, etc., it might happen to you more often than to someone who is starting. But you must not forget that you cannot predict in advance when the market will peak. And the goal is simply to react to what we see and especially to accept changing your bias quickly.
I'll take the example here of changing bias, it's a very important point. Many people have difficulty with it, whether it's a reversal like here. Okay. Changing from bullish to bearish, saying, "Okay, we're entering a bearish trend." Because most people, when they talked about a bear market, it was here and here. Except it's too late. Like now, when did people talk about a bull market? Perhaps more people talked about it for some because they were there and not here at that time. When did people talk about a bull market? Nobody here, nobody here. Here, it started to evoke the word bull market. Yes, when we broke here, okay. At this level, people were talking about a bull market. It's not that it's not too late because someone who positions themselves at $60,000, they've doubled their money so far, but it's too late. Technically, it's too late, we're close to the peak, I can't position myself here. And what I mean is that when I look at the bottom, how it formed in 2023, we had an ultimate crack with the FTX crash. Nobody talks about cryptos anymore, everyone says, "That's it, the next ones will fail one by one, it's the end, etc." We make a small reversal pattern, we break. Okay, with a rather interesting signal. We go back above the exchange tunnel that we hadn't broken for a long time. Okay? And then, at that moment, well, many people had determined that the most interesting zone on BTC to position oneself was this one. They had determined that the level between $11,000 and $14,000 was a golden zone, as they called it. And I agreed with them. I agreed with them. It's a very interesting zone. The neckline of a large reversal pattern, that's a fact. The problem is determining a location zone by saying, "If we go there, it's a good zone to position oneself, and it's certain that the market will go there." And the majority of people said, "It's certain that the market will go there." As a result, the market bottomed out just above, and when we pumped, instead of saying, "Well, okay, I was wrong, I'll enter at this level because I have reversal signals," people were convinced that the market would go there, and the market pumped here, and it's like, "No, it's impossible. The market must go there." It was a complete obligation. It's as if they were imposing something on the market. If you enter this phase, psychologically speaking, the market will destroy you. You cannot impose anything on the market. The market goes where it wants. And your goal is not to anticipate where it will go. Your goal is to react to where it goes. Okay? On zones that you have defined. If it goes there, great. If it doesn't, well, you can change your bias. Okay? That's what I'm telling you here, we are at a difficult level, but if we have positive signals, as I say, I won't hesitate to change my bias.
So, on BTC, regarding Ether, the same yesterday, a wick representing more than 50% of the candle. So, that's rather good. It simply shows us buying interest in this zone. Ultimately, we are retesting this small V bottom that we made here on the daily. We can see it clearly. What would be good is to form a larger structure by validating this W pattern, where we would reverse our dynamic since we made a lower low, we made a lower high. So, by breaking the $4200 to $4300 level, to be generous, we would make higher lows and higher highs, and that would be rather bullish. Which is not the case currently. I remind you, on Ether weekly, I will generally watch this zone. Okay, we are also at this very important support level. I've talked about it for a long time. $3800 on Ether, I want it to hold. If it doesn't hold, it won't be good for the future. We would potentially be re-entering. So this weekly close will be interesting to watch. And even if we remove the wicks, well, we see that we are at a double top. In an MTV. Okay, we see that we are making lower highs, two lows, we break. If we only look at the closes, we don't have pretty closes. If we consider the wicks, okay, I do take the wicks into account, but we are not making the prettiest pattern on Ether. That's why I tell you I'm wary, and I can reverse my bias if we start to go back above, break resistance levels like here, you see this resistance level, well, we've flipped it, it was a support level, we went back above, below, we flipped it into resistance. There's a lack of buying reactions for now.
So, we can be in a good zone, for someone doing swing or intraday trading, they might say, "Well, I'm at a support level, I have a small reaction, I'm looking for a long in this zone to take profit if we reach an extremity." This type of setup can be taken, but here, if I'm looking at the long term, we are still in a phase where we need to be wary. And this is where you must have done the work of knowing the zones in which you want to invest, whether it's on BTC, ETER, other altcoins, the cash you want to make available. That is to say, if for months I've been harping on about the same thing, your cash-crypto balance. Okay? What is the proportion of cash compared to your proportion of crypto? Some of you are 80/20, 50/30, 70. Okay, each of you has your own cash-crypto balance. It's not just for show, it's not so that when you look at your Excel files, you say, "Wow, I'm tracking my data, it's incredible, I feel like someone special." No, it has a real utility, which is that you become aware of the distribution between your assets, your cryptos, and your cash. By cash, I mean everything that is stablecoin. It can also be fiat that is invested in crypto. When I say cash, I don't mean the cash you use to pay for groceries, for whatever. It's really the cash that you say, that you have decided, "Okay, this is the cash I'm investing in crypto." That's what we count in there. Okay? And that allows you to become aware and to know the cash you have available. It also allows you to be calm because you realize that perhaps some people have no cash at all. And by having this cash-crypto balance, you say, "Ah, maybe I need a bit more cash." And especially to have the discipline to proceed in stages at levels to put cash back in, a portion. The goal is not to go all-in if it goes there. Okay? And the work must be done now. It's like I had to say at one point here or here, I don't remember. And it pays off because when we return there, that's where we put cash back at disposal and we always prepare in advance, always. It's not when we are there that we start to wonder, "Ah, should I invest now or not?" Because we are there, and it's too late. It's too late in the sense that if you try to make a decision when the market is in a zone where it already is, let's say $3,000, your decisions will be influenced by your emotions, simply, and it won't be professional. I'm telling you clearly, it won't be professional. That's why the work must be done now, where you will say, "Okay, if we go to $3,000, I'll invest. If we go here, I'll invest. If we re-enter, I'll invest." But you don't wait for the signal to be given, otherwise you will be impacted by your emotions and you will not make, I'm not saying you will make a bad decision, not necessarily. You can still make a good decision, even under the influence of emotions, but you will make a less good decision than if you had done all the work beforehand. That's a very important point. But as I say, we are in a phase where the work must be done. Just like when we had that big pump where I told you, well, you must know where you will take your profits. We saw that together. When I take, for example, the case of BTC, well, BTC, the profit-taking levels, ah, they were established a long time ago. There are videos, I remember, we were at this level, I was already setting profit-taking zones in case of a bull market, in case of an ATH, it was perfectly respected. We rejected 100% extension and at the level of 118, where we were here, and I was asked if we make a new ATH, where are we going, well, I didn't specifically say it's certain the market will go there, but I said if we go there, it's a zone where I take profits because if you do that, and we are at $122,000, $123,000, you can be influenced to say, "Ah, yes, but since we're already there, I might take profits a bit higher," and ultimately, well, that simply ruins your analysis.
So, regarding the altcoins you asked to analyze, I have Avax. So, on Avax, we had a spot long-term trade that we showed here. So, it's not with futures, so we don't get liquidated on this kind of drop, but AVAX has made a breakout of this level, of this level, sorry, the neckline of a reversal pattern, and here there are all the signs for it to take off and for us to reach the opposite extremity. This kind of breakout, if we break upwards and re-enter, and we have already re-entered, typically it's to go back and reach the opposite extremity. If it doesn't hold and we start closing weekly below this level, it's a false breakout, a breakdown, it's very ugly, and it's better to get out because we will have a high chance of retesting lower lows. So, still in a good zone on Avax, to potentially take longs because we can clearly see that we have this accumulation zone, we break, we pull back, we are consolidating at the level of the previous value high of this current accumulation phase. So, we are in a good zone, there is an interesting risk-reward, that's a fact, and here we are in a good zone to, as I said, look for longs to take profit above. Now, with a very low percentage of risk. I remind you, when I take intraday or swing trades, I will risk between 0.25% and 1% of my capital maximum. If I take a loss, which happens to me, it happens, of course, because I don't have to know that I have profitable setups by being wrong more often than right. That is to say, with a 30-40% win rate, I can have a setup that works. Why? Because when I win, I win much more than I lose. I might take three losing trades in a row, but one winning trade will compensate for the three losing trades. That's risk management, risk, but if I come back to my risk management itself, on a trade that I lose, I will risk between 0.25% and 1%. Which means, I can take 5, 10 losing trades in a row. 10 trades is quite rare. It has happened to me, but it's still quite rare. Well, by having good management like this, it prevents dividing your capital by two or three, unlike someone who would take, for example, 5%. Someone who takes 5% risk per trade, 10 trades, that's 50%, their capital is halved. That's not possible. Okay, that's not possible. So, well, same here, risk management simply allows you to absorb potential losses. Okay. So, that's it, Avax, the setup is quite simple.
Regarding Tao, Tao is rather strong at the moment. I still have some Tao, I had accumulated in this zone. Moreover, it's generally a large range that has been going on for almost 2 years now, which started in November 2023. So, yes, it's almost 2 years, and it's always the same thing I tell you every time I analyze Tao. We can clearly see that the middle of the range is well defined, it acts as resistance. The lower extremity acts as support, the upper extremity acts as resistance. It's true that it's been a year since we've gone to the upper extremity, and not much is happening on Tao. So, yes, some will say it will break upwards, whatever, I'm not trying to anticipate if it will break. I have quite interesting positions with a rather low price on Tao. Now, the goal is, I have already taken partial profits, I still have a very small exposure compared to my exposure on Hyper Liquid, Ethereum, BTC, of course, but it's a crypto that is a leader in AI, that has potential, and as long as we don't lose this level, the objective is clearly to reach the upper range and break the ATH. However, you need to have good entries. Either you position yourself at intermediate levels as we had here, for example, or you wait for a complete return to the bottom of the range. That's the most important thing, to have a good entry. If you have a bad entry, well, you won't be comfortable with your investment, and you will be much more prone to panic, to emotions. Because the person who enters here and takes a -70% loss, meaning they are directly in loss compared to the person who perhaps enters here, okay, they still take a -70% loss, but there's a difference between taking a -70% loss on their initial capital that they invested like this person, and 70% on unrealized gains. Of course, it sucks, that's a fact, but it's much easier to hold a position and it requires good timing for your entries.
And the last crypto, ENA or ENA, I cut it. I had shared a trade that I had taken, it was a good time ago. I don't know if I updated the trade, we followed it, but I had closed it because there were things I didn't like. I closed it, I think it was on this candle, on this H4 candle, just before the drop, because we had a breakout and a close below the level. ENA, we came back to test the lower extremity. Anyway, it's a range on ENA. Here, I was aiming for a trend continuation trade. It wasn't long-term. Okay, it was a swing trade where I risked, if I remember correctly, 0.5 at this level. So, I take a loss, as I say, for those who don't know me, who are discovering me, I show the gains, I show the losses. Always transparent with you. There are phases where we chain winning trades, it goes well. I've already shown big risk-rewards, I've already taken very good long-term positions on other cryptos. And sometimes when it goes wrong, well, we show that too, it's part of trading. The goal is simply to have a capital that does something like this in the long term. Not something like this because yes, this person is profitable but with a lot of stress, a lot of emotion, and too much volatility in the evolution of their capital. Okay? But the goal is to get closer to this. This is theory. Sometimes it's more complicated. In this zone, it might do this, of course. But the most important thing is to be consistent. Now, on ENA, we are testing the lower extremity, we pull back here to the neckline of this pattern, a bit of a reversal pattern that is a bit shaky, in the sense that it's not a large W structure. We mainly have a V bottom from the peak. We are filling imbalance zones, we are coming back to test the lower extremity. It's a range, okay? And as long as we hold this level, the objective is to reach the opposite extremity, and we don't try to position ourselves in the middle of the range. Now, I don't know, I positioned myself in the middle of the range. When I say we don't position ourselves in the middle of the range, it's for the long term. Okay? It's for, well, for the weekly. Here, it was more of an H4 entry at this level because I had, well, a signal that was rather good, but that's how it is, the market can't always go your way, otherwise it would be too simple.
Okay, I'm done. I've said everything I wanted to say. Don't hesitate to give me the altcoins you want me to analyze in the comments. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.