Transcription
The amount of volatility that we're dealing with lately has just been absolutely manic for lack of a better word. We're getting these huge tests of major support levels on the NASDAQ and on the S&P.
But under the hood, are things bad? Well, if you look at Oracle and what Oracle's saying, and we're going to spend some time on this, no, absolutely not. We're going to cover exactly what's happening with Oracle, the levels you need to work on, and what you need to know for it tomorrow.
What a lot of people aren't realizing about crude oil is this is one of the most unprecedented moves that we've ever had in crude oil. We have to talk about why it's happening, specifically what the heck's going on in the strait, and what you can do about it. It makes us wait and wants just easier times. Everyone misses the idea of just wanting to know whether or not they were going to cut interest rates or raise interest rates. And now we don't have to worry about it anymore.
Let's get to it. All these videos are linked starting on Saturday. Make sure that you subscribe. 27.5% of you do not subscribe yet watch religiously. Make sure you subscribe and click all notifications also because not only they linked, they come out at different times.
Let's get to it. Now, let's get you started and then we'll get into the levels in a minute. But I really want to get this out to you because this was much better than people thought it was going to be. We're coming into some of these levels. And at the time of recording this, the call's going on and I have the call in the background as I'm recording. So, you might see the clock change here on sometimes. Uh, but obviously when the call started, you just ripped right out of the gate. This is my little red zone and it goes back to a level back here that I think is really important and we flipped the first area. Um, if you're in the community already know that I bought more after hours and we had calls going into this. So, obviously I'm very happy. Uh, we'll see if we can get through. For those that are going to play this, the call wall is up here at 170. So, you have some more room if you get through. Personally, I thought it was a good, I thought it was decent.
Here. Let me. This is what I did. I went out there and you guys can grab this and I'm not going to make you go search for it and say follow me on Substack, even though you should. Uh, links in description. Um, but let's let's just get it out so that you guys have it for tomorrow. So these are the highlights and the guidance. So EPS 175 versus 171. If you're in the community, you already saw this an hour ago. Uh, but I just want to go through it for everybody so that you have it and then you can just grab it and screenshot it, do whatever you want with it. Cloud revenue 44% in USD, up 41% in constant currency. This is a little misleading. Um, and I'll just explain why because what they're really saying here, what they're doing here is you, I think the number was like 42 to beat. I won't say it's misleading, but what they're doing is they're saying, "Oh, if everything was in US dollars, we beat on the cloud revenue." But realistically, they came in and they were a little light. Not a lot, but a little. Um, cloud revenue 49 beat 47. EPS guidance 192-196, estimate was 195. My personal opinion of this is it wasn't a dumpster fire and I think that the bar was set so low at dumpster fire level that this is really good. Expected revenue to grow 18 to 20%. The buy side was at 20%. So the total revenue expected to grow is actually light and you're going up. I think that's important. Total revenue up 19 to 21. Total revenue guide 67, which was a little higher. Not a lot. Now, total revenue guidance was 67. Cap expenditure, they're coming in at 50 billion. Revenue guidance, they were at 86 and they came in at 90. So, they're going out to 90. They're going out to 27 and they're raising by what, 10%, not even, you know, not even 10%. So, the stock is up obviously and I think it's the revenue guidance that's doing that.
What do I think this does? I think it gets to our little level up here and then we're going to have to make some decisions and, you know, figure out do you want in, do you want out? Um, my sense of this and the way it's acting is that you should be holding in here and we'll have to see tomorrow. But the call wall is the bigger deal. I think you might get some upgrades on this and I'll tell you why. I think a lot of people were just really concerned about how this was going to play out. And I know, I know for sure I was because if this was a dumpster fire, which it was not, this could have been a blood bath for the whole market. And you'll actually note uh that the market actually traded up a little bit. If we look at the cues right here, market actually traded up and a lot of these guys traded up on it where, you know, lights up like $10 after hours and some of these other names actually started motoring a little bit where you're seeing Micron come back a little bit. Now it's up another two. So, it's a little bit of relief to see that, you know, Oracle of all things is not an absolute unequivocal dumpster fire. I'm not really sure why we thought it would be. Um, but they clearly, clearly have just been waiting for Armageddon here.
So, let's get to it now. Now, there are a bunch of levels I really want to go over, but I I do want to touch base on something here. This is unequivocally the biggest drop and the biggest move that you've ever had in crude oil, period. End of story. So, it's not like, oh, it rivals this one or that one, but this volatility in a day, we don't have anything like this on record. And when you start going through it, you can understand just how absolutely crazy this is. And it's even worse from yesterday where we're getting tweets and we're deciding what we're going to do on tweets. And now Iran is tweeting too. So you're getting these comments and what we do with these comments is anybody's guess, but it's getting to the point where it's a little, it's a little excessive to say the least. And what it's doing is it's causing massive panic in the market.
Now from my standpoint, if we sit here and look at 120 and then we get down to that 76, oh, that's not a lot. Well, crude oil, and I don't know how you're supposed to adjust for this, but crude oil just moved 36%. 36% is what crude oil moved. It's an enormous move. If, if you take a look at that from that level, you can even see this bounce today, which these used to be enormous moves. This bounce today from the bottom back up, right? That in and of itself was 13%. And we're pretending that that's absolutely nothing. Even these other drops from when you're breaking these, these recent highs that you're having at like 8 or 9:00, you're watching these little breakdowns. For example, just watching this one in here, um, where all of a sudden it starts rolling over. And I'm just using crude here. You can also use the, you know, USO, which a lot of people trade instead. But if you look at the break from that little support coming across down, that's 12%. And it's, it's very hard to trade these names or stay in these things when they have this level of volatility. A matter of fact, it's actually, in my opinion, it's, it's impossible because anybody that's putting swing trades on is just getting batted around. It's, it's not feasible to just say, "Oh, I'm going to buy some oil and hold on to it," because, you know, you're having 30% moves. It's not normal.
So, what do you what do you do here and what's happening? You have a lot of information that came out today from G7. They're going to cut and they're going to dump oil in the market, which would actually make sense, but they're saying, "Oh, we're not going to do that now. We're going to think about it some more." Okay. Um, and then after that, we saw another tweet that come out. And you know what? Let's just go through them all because it's just some, something you just, you have to see. Let's take a look at what happened today. This tweet came out by the secretary of energy, right? Very clearly states what he is saying. US escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz. It's very clear, unambiguous.
Let's get to it. We then get confirmation that the tweet is actually deleted. I'm not going to get used to this X post. We're just going to say tweet. And that all of a sudden the US energy secretary's tweet is deleted. This is where it gets interesting. Almost immediately after the delete, we have this message from the IRGC which states, "The claim of a tanker passing through the strait escorted by the US military is false."
Now, for my point, this was something that was really effective because effective to the market because one, obviously, we're in an information war more than anything else. I think if you look at this, it's telling you point blank that they have no intent of letting anything go through that strait right now. So despite what we're hearing, despite what we're being told, it's just not happening. The White House held a conference and during that conference, the press secretary was asked about the tweet and said the removing tweet escorted through the strait, they have not escorted anything. And she was very clear about that. So when asked about why did this go out, I mean, I guess I would be at a loss for words, too. I don't know really how I would respond to it. It's very surreal. But then again, a lot of what we're seeing out of there is pretty surreal right now on both sides.
And when I say that, all of a sudden, at the minute that this comes out, the next thing that we see is US intelligence assets have begun seeing any indications Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in the strait. So, we've gone from a Navy ship has passed to within 45 minutes, no one has any idea what the Secretary of Energy is talking about. He deletes the tweet. IRGC says comes out and says nothing's happened and then in that span of time they've also taken steps to start deploying mines into the strait which quite frankly I don't think any of us really truly believe. I think that they know that they have a bunch of people on Twitter and that they're now we're watching that why they would stop their own inflow of or ability to export where they'd have to go out and take these mines out it just doesn't really make any sense at best it seems like it would just be a last resort but nevertheless this is where we're at and we're in a big information age right now and it is extremely volatile out there and you can see that in the energy prices as well as the indexes and it's really wreaking havoc on the emerging markets.
So seeing is believing. We actually have the secretary of energy sending out a tweet and then deleting it. A lot of people are like, "Oh, is he just floating something out there? Is he just floating a tweet out about something that's not true?" Like I don't even have words for it. I, the whole thing to me is absolutely surreal and I think that we have to just look at this and say, what does this really mean? My personal opinion of it is I think it was a mistake. I think that either they were going to escort one and then they didn't, and or someone hit the wrong button and got it out there, or they were drafting tweets of what's going to come in the next week. I think that you were seeing some of that. Someone may have hit the wrong button, but from my perspective, you have to assume that it wasn't to quote float an idea out there and just disseminate false information. Let's just go on that premise that that's not why it was done.
And why does that matter? Because it lets us know what kind of other bombs are out there that we have to deal with. In other words, are we just going to just start tweeting false things just to see what happens? I, I don't believe that that's really the narrative of the entire cabinet that that's what we're going to see. I do think that there's a lot of information out here that when it comes, it's really creating panic and then people are just getting sick of it and they're like, "I don't even want to deal with it." I mean, what I mean by that is, you know, one minute everything's great and, you know, someone like EWY in South Korea, they're going to go and get, oh, they're not, not have any trouble getting oil anymore. Not having any trouble at all. And then, no, no, that thing we just sent out, yeah, that's fake. And then people are like, "Okay, well, that means that I have to sell an entire country's index." And then you can just see how it goes from there and rallies back up and then it just rolls right back down over in the end of the day. And it's spreading everywhere because people are looking at this saying, "Do I really want to hold overnight?"
See, the more, the more you say that you're in control of things and the more that it looks like you're in control of things, that's great. That's fantastic. But if you can't even, and I'm just saying this, and I don't care what side of the aisle you're on with these guys. I think it's all, you know, two wings, same bird. I'll leave it at that. But if you can't even control the strait and you're going to say that you're in charge and you're winning, I, I don't know your definition of winning. But when your global supply of oil is being stopped, you, that's not the definition of winning. So, we'll go on that.
If you take a look at Micron today, I thought this was super interesting. Same level and then all of a sudden we have this divergence and we rolled over. I thought that that this was really setting up to be something and, and candidly I think it would have um, but if you can't really, I don't want to say the word, let me, let me think of the right word, if you can't rely on the veracity of the information that you're getting and, and you don't see anything that you're standing on. I think people are just looking at this market and saying, "Is this my best idea?" And if the answer is no, they're just kicking it. So, do I think that there's a fundamental problem here with Micron or a fundamental problem with SanDisk? I, I don't. And I don't think there's a pro fundamental problem here with Oracle. I'm watching this and listening to the conference call in the background at the time of recording this and I don't feel that there's an AI quote unquote problem or bubble here. A matter of fact, if you guys look up ASML, I thought this was super interesting that SKH actually went out there and offered them 10 or 15% over what the machine costs to get it to them sooner. You would not do that unless you needed it because you had such demand. And so I do think that that's important.
Now, if we just take a second and just go through the breath of the market and look at what's going on, and I think that this is a really good time to do this. So, if we go and take a look here and we look Tuesday and we're just going to come straight across on this because I really think that this hammers a lot of stuff for us and I'll, I'll show you this. So, first and foremost, we're going to run through these because I think it's the the easiest way for me to show you the market and then I want to show you a couple other things that you really need to pay attention to. So what we're looking at here on the bottom of this is the five-day and we're just going to go to here at that and that's Tuesday. So what we're getting is we're getting to a 16 right down in this level and this gets us to that kind of barrier where we talked about before and it's really that single-digit barrier and when you get to that single-digit barrier that's usually it. It usually happens the same day that you get there. If you look at these levels, it's not like you hit here and then it gets worse. It's, it's usually like wham. So whether we get there tomorrow or the next day, just watch it because you're getting to a level down here where you're setting up for some kind of snapback. And I'll show you what I mean by that. I'm not saying that you're going to go higher and that's the end of it. But whenever you get to single digits from here over, anywhere from single digits into this, you see some kind of snapback because 90% of all your names are below the S&P 500. And that's just, it's not normal. So you definitely want to watch that. And that's S5D for you guys that are playing along and want to continue to watch. And then if we get into the S&P on the 20-day and we start looking at this, 26 is an insanely low number. That means that 75% of all names are below.
Now, what I want to show you here, I'm just going to come to the level that we're at right now. And I just want to show it this way. And what I tried to do was frontload the most actionable stuff and then get into the longer-term stuff in case that's all you really wanted to deal with. Uh, you can always comment on that, but I think that was a great way to do it, especially today. But if you look at when we're in this red zone and we look at some of these lower levels and peaks, what are they really telling us? Uh, they'll tell you when you're pretty washed out, won't they? They'll be like, "Yeah, you're, you're getting there. You're getting pretty washed out." Doesn't mean you can't roll over and, and but that was a perfect, I mean, like that was a literal perfect divergence right there to to get in the market. Um, and then we're seeing these levels here and, you know, you can all see the higher highs, whatever. But when we start to get in here, that becomes a danger zone. It doesn't become an area where we're going to just bounce and, and, and you need like a, a real wash out on that 20-day. So, I don't know that that's telling us that there's a, a longer-term bounce out there, but I think there's a shorter-term one. And this one, this is the one that really bothers me. Um, the other one's going to bother me, too. But when the 50-day crosses like you're doing here, and what's killing me about this stuff is this. So, if I go and take a look at today, and that's Thursday, and then you look at where you're at on Friday that you broke, and then you come over here, you really don't have follow-through until today, and this is what's so, so frustrating about this market is it's becoming these areas where it looks like we're going to turn and then it just goes right on the other way, and then it's like, nope, no, we're going to do this. So, let's see what we get tomorrow on. But, we just want to watch this. You don't want to be under here and getting crazy. It's fine if you're trying to catch a bottom and it's turning up. We started to do that yesterday and then all of a sudden we got kaibashed and I really think that a lot of people threw in the towel because they looked at yesterday's comments like, "Okay, well, you've got this under control. You're obviously closer to the end of this than not," and that's clearly, you know, not, not the case um, as being seen today.
Now, the the one that very rarely does this, and we don't want to see it happen, but if we go to the 50 line on the 200, we're just going to drop that down here. And I just want to show you how rare this is. It doesn't happen often, but when it does, you really want to pay attention to it because long-term it could be a real problem. A matter of fact, when you get to that, there's usually inflection points on this. So, it's either you, it's either do or die, really, those kinds of areas. Uh, because once you break, that's it. And you can just see that from here. It's just all heck breaks loose. We're coming down to that area. So to me, this is an area where maybe long-term we do bounce.
And so what would I take from everything that I just went over? This is where it gets, you know, open to interpretation. But I, what I would take from it looking at the S&P is the following. I think that you're short-term, you're grossly oversold, and you're setting up to bounce. If I go and do this with it and just look at a bare chart here with the RSI, I do think that you're setting up for an for some kind of bounce because you're oversold. And then from there, we're going to have to figure it out. It's really going to come up to what happens with Iran and how long that takes because that can actually increase if oil just stays around 90. I think it can increase CPI by at least 0.5. There's no chance of a rate cut. So that goes right out the window. But if we take a look at this, it is in the range. We did have a pretty solid bounce and we did have follow-through in a lot of names yesterday, but it's just a function of do they want to stay in this market or do they not.
So the very first thing again, just go look at S5F or sorry S5. And what we want to watch here is we just want to watch this area and we really want to pay attention to it. We really want to see like, hey, what are we going to do here? Are we really going to hold this? Are we really going to bounce? Because this is that area where those short-term squeezes, they start happening pretty fast.
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