Transcription
My name is Gareth Soloway and I was a losing trader until I mastered technical analysis. Logic and charts beat hype and narratives every time. Now I teach investors the same techniques that made me a multi-millionaire. This is my trading game plan.
Good morning everybody. Welcome to my trading game plan. Of course, I am Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here at verifiedinvesting.com. Now, in today's game plan, we always focus on charts and technical trading levels. No BS, just charts.
Here to go over some of the key drivers this morning, we have Intel falling 12%. We'll look at that chart. Where is the key buyable level today? And then we'll also look at the opposite side of the tech spending or tech uh chip sector where Nvidia is bouncing a little bit after China said they're ready to buy H200 chips. All right. So, we've kind of had this little bit of a a divergence, if you will, between two major chip players. One dropping 12%, the other only up about one plus percent, but it is again a monster compared to Nvidia or to to Intel.
All right, so what we're going to do, let's start out with the S&P futures and take a look. S&P futures are basically at the low end of the range this morning. If we look at where we closed yesterday, we closed right here yesterday on the S&P, right? So, essentially, we are lower. In fact, we're making new lows in real time here. But again, this is not a huge move lower, right? In all fairness, we're we're basically just hitting the low from yesterday's initial little sell-off there before the rally back.
Now, overall, I continue to think that the markets are in a specific danger zone. Why? Well, even though we got a two-day bounce here in the S&P, number one, the first day here on Wednesday, that was a good solid bounce. Yesterday, not so strong. Yeah, we opened higher, but we closed basically exactly where we opened, putting in this little bit of a dogee candle, which dogeis tell you that it's not basically, you know, to to summarize what a dogee is, it's where buyers and sellers meet and no one wins. So, it's not resoundingly bullish. It's not at the same time resoundingly bearish. But think about it. If price stays where it opened, then there was an equal amount of buyers versus sellers, equal amount of sellers. And so, it does tell us that the momentum of the two-day bounce as geopolitical tensions uh cooled. It does tell us that things again really stalled out pretty quickly.
I think one of the things I'm taking from this folks, and think about this logically, this is where the markets were trading going into that weekend where we had the news about the potential tariffs over Greenland. When we rallied two days in a row, we only got back about three quarters of the move. That is problematic. That tells you in general that the markets are still a little skittish and maybe shading to the sell side. In addition, this trend line while unconfirmed as a breakdown, we are still below that level. And that does bear warning, right? That is still a signal that we could confirm on any major sell-off. We would to confirm, we basically would need to close below 67.89 on the S&P 500.
All right, flipping over to the NASDAQ. Much the same here. We have this great trend line. The only difference here is we did confirm a breakdown yesterday. We did close basically off of the highs, right? We opened at the highs on the QQQ. We ended up selling down here, the low of the tail. And we did get a little bounce into the end of the day to come back up, but we still were down from where we opened and we did not retest this trend line. Today, we're looking to open close to yesterday's lows on the QQQ, but just a little bit above it. But the bigger picture continues to be one where investors should just be a little bit cautious here because this trend line that goes back to the trend from 2025 April's low that has now been broken and confirmed below on the NASDAQ 100.
Now flipping over to one of my bigger concerns here. This is the 10-year yield in the United States. We've talked about the bull flag here and we got our breakout finally. We've now retraced, but oftentimes that's normal, right? It takes a lot of energy to blast through this major wall. You can see how long it was trying to get through. When you break out, oftentimes you'll get a retrace because basically you used up a lot of the buying pressure on the 10-year and there's a little bit more sellers. But the retraces in general, what do they do? you break out, you retrace, and then you end up going higher. And that would be more problematic for the markets and likely signal uh further downside on the market equity side.
Now, let's flip over to the charts that are moving today. Intel, Nvidia, and a few others. Like, where are these levels? So, if we take a look here at Intel, Intel is bouncing a little bit off of its lows, but it's still down pretty sizably, close to 12%. Now, if you looked at the daily chart, could we have kind of figured this one out? In fact, yesterday I did say to you guys that Intel based on technical analysis going into earnings right here in this my trading game plan, I said based on technical analysis, it should pull back on earnings. Now, did I think we were going to get a over 10% drop on this? No. That that's pretty that's surprising. I mean, that is a big drop on Intel, especially considering it's governmentbacked at this point and owned. But ultimately, you could see the trend lines converging right up here. Look at the extension move. The stock rallied from $35 on the day before Christmas on Wednesday, December 24th. $35 to 50, almost 55. it makes sense that an extended move should see some sort of pullback.
All right, so we'll watch and see. But ultimately, again, what I'm eyeing here, target number one at $44. Notice how I'm coming up with this level, folks. This is big pivot high. And also, look, there's a gap right here. Closed here, opened the next day up here. This would be gap fill right in here. 44 should be a major tradable, day tradable level. Now, would I swing trade it there? No. And it's not for me to swing trade, frankly. The one where I would consider a swing trade would be this longer level here, right? So, if we look at this down here, we have all of these pivot points kind of kissing and touching and piercing this trend line. That's around $42. So, at $42, this should get some sort of bounce right in this vicinity. There's also an additional gap fill right there as well. Um, but again, 42 would be a potential, and I say potential because as always, I I reanalyze in real time before I get in any trade. But 42 could be a level for a more multi-day bounce versus this 44 for me purely, I repeat, purely day tradable.
Now, Intel, that's the one that's taking the beating today. The other one, Nvidia had news this morning that basically uh China was saying they could probably start purchasing these H200 chips, their companies including Alibaba and Bite Dance. And you can see the reaction. Now, this looks like a huge move, right? But in essence, it's not that big. If we look at where it was, this was about a 2.5% move and we're currently trading up about 1.75%. So again, listen, for a almost $5 trillion company, that's a big move, but in the essence of it, it's not a huge monster move up. It's still positive.
Now, if we look at the chart here, we can see here we had this trend line, which again was support. I still remember going over this chart and saying how this was a bearish chart. We broke down, it then became resistance. This white line, this top white line, resistance. We then established this pivot low which even though we closed below right here, we never confirmed. We got back above a little small update yesterday and today we're back up a little bit more. Now ultimately the more we hammer on this trend line, the more likely we are to break at some point, but we'll have to continue to monitor that. Basically Nvidia is what I would call rangebound. Rangebound means that it could go anywhere from this trend line up to this trend line, right? That's your range up and down and up and down until we get either a break down or a breakout one or the others. But essentially these two trend lines you can see it already working right where we broke below then it became resistance rejected it to support then it became resistance rejected it to support now it's moving back up. You can see it's rangebound and so again it granted it is an up uptrending range but still it is still rangebound between these two lines. That's what I will be focusing on at this point. So again, it's kind of interesting today because you got these negative this negative news from Intel which was kind of setting up for potentially wrecking the tech sector, especially the chip stocks. And then Nvidia's news is trying to offset that almost as if it was choreographed. And I'm not saying it was, but almost as if it was choreographed. Oh, we got bad news. Well, let's throw some good news out there on the chip side to offset the other chip stock that is getting pounded today.
Now, another stock in the chips sector that I'm keeping my eye on is this one, Broadcom. If we look at Broadcom, Broadcom is slipping sharply lower in pre-market action. I mean, again, percentage- wise, it's not a huge move for a $300 stock, but this has been one where, again, we had the nasty drop on earnings, then we talk about a bare flag. I mean, this is case in point a bearish flag pattern right here, right? I mean, look at look at that. I mean, you basically have two lines that were parallel with price trading in between them. We broke, we confirmed, they tried to gap us up yesterday and it still closed negative. Think about how weak that is, folks. Markets were up yesterday and this stock was still down. And today, here it's trading right in this uh 317 range. The reason I'm bringing this up is today on my watch list for trading is this gap fill right here. Right? You have this key level. This is a huge gap. See the big gap right in here? That is a huge gap that if we hit that price, we should get some sort of technical bounce. Okay. Um and again, that's going to be on my radar for day trading today as we continue to monitor that.
Okay. Couple other stocks that are making moves. We did hear from ISRG. ISRG Intuitive Surgical um had decent earnings. The stock's only up a little bit, so no tradable levels there. Alcoa reported Alcoa is moving lower here in the pre-market. If you look at Alcoa, though, I mean, look at the run it's had. Now, granted, the metals are having a remarkable move. And by the way, silver is knocking on the door of of $100 per ounce. I would be very surprised if it does not pierce it today considering how close we are. Um, and even gold is only about $50 away from 5,000. But ultimately on Alcoa, you could even see here the potential was making a little shoulder head and shoulder pattern. If this breaks on Alcoa, look for quite a bit more downside. Looks like we're trading above it for the time being. But right now, again, that stock is falling now. Again, notice how it's only down slightly on the day right here when it closed here. So, the reason why I don't give you guys tradable day tradable levels is because if it's not moving enough, it there's not enough action for me to trade, right? I'm only going to give you things that I'm actually eyeing specific levels that I think are achievable in today's price action.
All right. Um, now again, let's move on to the metals here. Let's start with gold. Gold is fractionally higher, trading just below 4950. Incredible move here. We have our parallel that dictates that most likely where this is heading is right up into this range. That would be just above 5,000. And so really again, we're literally talking about a $50 move to 5,000 to touch this line. It might be slightly more than that, but that is going to be the line in the sand right there.
All right, silver. If we look at silver now, silver has its parallel. Granted, it's a much shorter term parallel, but it is pushing above. It wants that 100 even number. And I think this is important to understand is that, you know, you look at stocks or you look at commodities or even crypto, there's a psychological factor in human nature that really wants even numbers tagged. It's like it's like, you know, I always used to say to the traders is is you look for these even numbers like 50,000 on the Dow, right? were just below 50,000 because once that happens, it coaxes anyone on the fence to get bullish. It was kind of like still a little wishy-washy and you get the last group in and then that's where markets top, that's where markets bottom on the reverse side. Um, we saw it obviously in the 2000.com, right? We saw the NASDAQ getting to 5,000. Once it hit 5,000 and pierce 5,000, it was just a ticking time bomb to a major collapse. And we've seen that in other um indices in other things as well. But 5,100 on silver, gold and silver respectively. Those are very at this point foregone conclusions. I'd be somewhat surprised if we didn't pierce both of those levels. If not today, then on Monday or even Sunday night when the futures open.
All right. Um oil today is getting a good move up. I continue to be bullish on this following the the classic wedge pattern breakout. So nice move on that front there folks and natural gas. Look at this guys again just an incredible move. We're actually pushing up on natural gas again today. Look at this push. Um again a lot of this has to do with essentially the current contract. This big snowstorm that's coming for most of the East Coast and even the the Midwest here over the next couple days. I would expect a fade off of this. Um, again, I did short natural gas yesterday and I I even bought Kol. We actually already got out of KOD yesterday for over 10% gain in smart money stocks and ETF. So, that was a good little winner right there. But the point is here is that with this double top, once the storm gets past, I do think again NAC gas prices start to come in um decently. Now, again, are they going to go back to these lows? Probably not. But ultimately again back to this pivot. This would now become your major level of support. Again down move up breakdown. It busted through. Now this area around 445 450 would become your key level to watch.
All right, just doing a check back on the ES futures here. The S&P futures on the 10-minute chart remain a little bit on the weaker side. Again, keep in mind we're not down hugely here. If we look at this, we're down about a quarter of a percent. I'm just flipped over to the daily chart of the E- Minis here. Uh but nonetheless, slight weaker open. It is a Friday, so we could see a float in the afternoon as the institutions wrap it up for the weekend. But again, keep your eye on Intel, on Nvidia, and really ultimately the chip sector. And of course, I think silver is a big one.
Oh, I didn't go over Bitcoin. Let me not forget Bitcoin here because I know you guys out there that follow Bitcoin want it. Bitcoin continues to hold. Look at this. It is hugging on like it's holding on to the side of a cliff. Bitcoin is holding on for dear life. Maybe it can save itself and start trading up. But again, if this breaks and confirms it's likely headed down to 80,000, potentially on its way to a bigger move down. you have this head and shoulders potentially um forming here on Bitcoin and that could get pretty nasty if that actually ends up playing out to the downside. Right now I'm really eyeing my major buy level will be between 74 and 69,000 but of course I'll leave room in case it flushes down to 50, let's say, or even lower.
All right, guys. Uh as always, it's been a fun week. I'll be back for the weekly rap after the bell today to go over everything in the market that happened and give you your weekend analysis. As always folks, thank you so much for tuning in and I'll talk to you soon. Take care.