Transcription
Today, we have important news, it's the inflation figures in the United States. This risks moving the market, but also, we are still within our contraction, our triangle, we will talk about it today. Also, we will do an analysis of Ethereum. We will talk a little bit about what is happening with the ETFs, BTC, ETH. Just before we start, I remind you that our free algo service is still available. 30 TP for the lim strategies last week. The SPT algorithms made 30R, it was their record. Once again, I repeat, past performance does not guarantee future performance. To access these algorithms, it's free. It's the first link in the pinned comment. all the notices concerning my content. The only thing to do is to register on Bitgate. Via our partner link, it's the first link that is right here. Here, you click on the little verification. We wait for it to load a bit. It will bring you back to the homepage which will allow you to register on Bing via our partner link. So there, you create your account and once that's done, you just have to look at this second link, Algo Trading, mentorship, VIP, Alcoin and crypto. And this will allow you to access the mentorship for free as well, 24 video courses await you. And in addition to that, you will have access to the VIP Alcoin right here in the VIP crypto. This is where I will share the best opportunities from my point of view on the market. So to come back to BTC, today, we have the inflation figures. The market expects 3.1% inflation. So if we are beyond that, it's not positive. If we are below that, it's rather positive. I remind you that the market is mainly interested in interest rates. So in fact, our opinion on inflation is not what matters, it's really what the market will interpret from these figures. To put it simply, if you see the probabilities here, well, for those who are wondering, you go to the CME group, interest rates, here CME Fed Watch Tool. And so to do that, you will simply look at January 28, 2026 and you will look at the probabilities here 325 350. If this increases, it's positive. It means that the market has interpreted the figures positively. So for example, if we have 3.1 and you wonder, well, is it good, is it not good, you come and look at the figures here. If there is 3.2, how did the market interpret it? Did it interpret it very badly or not. If for example, this collapses, it means it interpreted it very badly. So that's how you will see if the market is okay with the figures or not. The more this probability of lowering rates increases, the more positive it is because it means that the market expects a cut in October, a cut in December, and a cut in January 2026. So over the next three FOMCs, three rate cuts. And so this would be positive for the market. The more we lower rates, the more we can try to stimulate liquidity. Now, regarding BTC, well, we are still in our triangle. We will have to wait for its resolution. It's a contraction, meaning the market has no clear direction. It forms higher lows and lower highs. So this doesn't tell us much. For me, the ultimate test is the resolution and the price reaction above this high, because it will be able to indicate to us if Bitcoin comes here and accepts it, it will be quite positive to aim for a new ATH. If Bitcoin reaches around 116,200 and is rejected, it would rather be a consolidation, manipulation, expansion model. And then we would expect to go back below 100,000. So for me, this is really what will dictate the price direction in the coming days, coming weeks. As long as we are in this contraction, from my point of view, not much will happen. So, we could go back to test the top of this triangle around $113,100 for example. Here, we can see that we are taking the stops from the previous day. Our indicator here. Hop, our our little D for daily. So, it's the high of the previous day. We see that we have taken the stops and since then it has been consolidating a bit. Also, this is an order block here. So it's normal to have a small rejection for now if it breaks into a breaker block at this level. So if we really break the last level, the last high here on the hourly, the next step for me is the high of this week at $114,000. Expect volatility around the FOMC, sorry, around the CPI, obviously. Also, a big deadline on November 1st in a week for Trump's tariffs. Yesterday, we had news that there would be an exchange between the Chinese president and the American president Trump. So it will be interesting to see what deal will be made between the two countries, obviously regarding the customs tariffs. And this will also move the markets a lot. And so the market is waiting for all this news, tomorrow's CPI but also the tariffs, and we see it on the ETFs, yesterday we had over 20 million inflow on Bitcoin. It's ridiculous. So there are neither inflows nor outflows. The net flow is quite low, which means there is a huge disinterest. We are clearly waiting for the market's direction and especially for the upcoming news. On Ethereum, it's a bit similar. Well, for this one, there are outflows but not a huge amount. So yeah, there is clearly a market that is disinterested for now. And when we look at the Nasdaq here, well, we also see that there is very low volatility. Now, I expect the Nasdaq to make a new ATH. I explained why yesterday in the macro review. So I think we will get there today with the CPI. But what will be interesting is afterwards, will the Nasdaq manage to accept and take on a good bullish momentum? If that's the case, it will make it easier for Bitcoin to do something. If the Nasdaq comes to take the stops and does nothing afterwards and continues to range, well, that will make the rise difficult for BTC. So that's why we also need to watch the Nasdaq. So remember that it's a contraction, there's nothing to do in a contraction. Well, not nothing to do, but you have to wait for the resolution of the contraction. It's 50/50 and the most important thing is after the resolution. If it's a bullish resolution and we get rejected, we will expect a bearish continuation. If it's a bearish resolution and we get rejected, we will expect more of a bullish continuation. I expect more that the market will come and take the stops and to be honest, I expect more of a rejection in this zone to go and purge lower. But we'll see what the market decides to do. I don't read the future and I'm not going to bet on it personally, unless there are clear signals to take this kind of setup. But for now, there's nothing very interesting. And given the news coming, CPI tomorrow, the next FOMC also very soon, I forgot, but there is also the FOMC next week. So Wednesday, if I'm not mistaken, Wednesday the 29th, that's right. Well, we are waiting for all that. After that, well, for me, the FOMC, we don't care much. Well, not that we don't care, but well, 98% chance of lowering rates, so there's very little chance we won't lower rates. What's interesting is the Fed's speech on its balance sheet. Will they cut QT or not? Talk about an end to QT soon. Will we have more details on this end of QT? That's what could re-motivate the market. And also, I remind you on the weekly chart, the most important point is the order block. You see that here for now, it is still maintained. That's positive on the weekly. As long as this order block is maintained, there is really the possibility of trying to go up again and make a new ATH. This is clearly a scenario not to be overlooked. Now, if we were to have a breaker block, well, that would really be the signal that we are entering a bearish swing. But we've already talked about that. To come back to ETH here. Hop. Well, ETH is taking, sorry, a bit of negative net flows, so outflows. Money is leaving, but again, well, there's a bit of disinterest. We see that like Bitcoin, it's contracting, it's working on the first support. I remind you, as long as the first support is maintained, there is still hope to make a new ATH and to break $5,000. But to do that, we need to maintain the first support. You know the rule, as long as the first support is maintained, we aim for a new ATH. When the first support breaks, we aim more for returns to the reload zone and longer consolidation. So this is really a key level. If you are bullish, well, the closer you buy to the first support, the more chance you have of catching the bottom. We see that we have bottomed for now on this first support. Now, it's the same thing, it's a consolidation. For me, the levels that interest me here are the extremes. So the lowest point of the crash and the highest point of the rebound after the crash, quite simply. These are the levels that interest me to try to understand the future movement. Now, we see that it's a bit of a range, quite simply. We are not taking stops to the south, we are leaving stops to the north. For me, positioning yourself in this range, in a swing, is a mistake. You have to wait for liquidity grabs, whether it's at least this high if you want to short to continue bearish, or at least the stops here if you want to long to continue bullish. But from my point of view, positioning yourself within the contraction, well, it's not the best thing to do because in fact, you are adding liquidity where the market will purge it before taking the real direction potentially. So that's what you need to observe. For example, if we come here and get rejected, well, it wouldn't be positive, it would be a harbinger of a bearish continuation. If we came here and got rejected, it would be positive. It would rather mean that it would be a consolidation, a liquidity grab before the bullish push. Often the market will make a move that will mislead the majority before taking its true direction during contractions. That's why generally, for example, we will prefer bearish breaks and re-entries to have real bullish movements because if we do the opposite, it's more indicative of bearish movements. I also remind you that as long as we don't break the fair value gap on daily, not much will happen, and I mean that reflects the market waiting for key elements like today's CPI, October 29th the FOMC, and then a potential US-China deal, to see if it will be a good deal or not for the economy because I remind you that high tariffs, well, they can slow down trade between the two countries and thus increase prices. That's what you need to understand because China will be a huge inflation lever. If they face quite high tariffs, it should have an impact on inflation and it will be pressured by the market because if inflation rises, well, we will reduce the chances of lowering interest rates and therefore for risk assets, it would be less interesting and it would strengthen the dollar. So you need to understand that, the dollar which is perhaps on the verge of a weekly pattern that could mark the bottom. So that needs to be taken into account. That's why this deal is super important and should not be neglected at all. In my opinion, this will have a huge impact on the markets in the coming weeks. I'll stop here for today. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to leave a little thumbs up, subscribe, leave a little comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box if you want lots of free content, my trading school for those who are interested. I'll let you check all that out. We'll meet again later for the macro review. See you soon. Bye bye.