Transcription
Try to imagine along. Waking up in the morning on a weekend and suddenly finding that the landscape of wealth and savings has changed abruptly. As if a global macroeconomic earthquake power is creating a big tremor, and it directly affects the price of assets we are well familiar with, like gold. Today, in our data deep dive, we will come to unravel the mystery behind this volatility: what exactly happened in the gold market that caused the numbers to surge, creating astonishment everywhere like this? Alright, let's dive deep into this matter right away.
The figure of 64,650 baht mentioned isn't just a random number that appeared, but it is the selling price of gold bars announced on Saturday morning. Which was a moment that caused the market and almost every investor to halt and be surprised in unison, because this price surge happened very quickly and intensely. The interesting question is, what exactly was the driving force that made this number jump to the point we are about to discuss? For the issues we will trace today, starting with the soaring gold price, followed by a summary of extreme volatility, then looking at global factors that pushed the price, and concluding with economic figures that must be watched without blinking. Let's start with the first part, the phenomenon of soaring gold prices, which is a historic leap.
Let's compare to see a clear picture like this. This jaw-dropping leap event occurred on Saturday, June 27, 2569 (2026), at 9:10 AM, but the price surged up to 750 baht in an instant. What makes this situation even more astonishing is when compared to the previous Friday, throughout which the gold price had already been fiercely climbing by adding up to 850 baht. The fact that Saturday jumped up another 750 baht in a single announcement is therefore a very unusual and intense phenomenon. And this data clearly reflects what happened to each type of asset overnight. For 96.5% gold bars, the selling price closed on Friday at 63,900 baht. Then Saturday morning opened at 64,650 baht. As for gold ornaments, they followed closely, jumping from 64,700 baht to 65,450 baht. In summary, an exact increase of 750 baht. This is empirical evidence of one of the most sudden changes in the local gold trading market.
Let's move on to Part 2, a summary of extreme volatility on a very chaotic Friday. Do you know that just looking at static numbers doesn't reflect the true volatility? The figure of 30 times is the number of gold price announcements within Friday alone. Try to imagine that within normal trading hours, the market had to face price adjustments up and down 30 times. It is extreme speed and volatility that made investors almost unable to take their eyes off the screen for even a minute. Now, what is very interesting about this overall picture is when we step back and look at the entire week, there were a total of 133 price announcements, divided into 74 upward adjustments and 69 downward adjustments. Called a fierce battle. But what is most surprising is that even though we saw a crazy jump at the end of the week, when summarizing the total compared to the previous week, the overall gold price actually decreased by 250 baht. This is the beautiful complexity of data analysis, showing that the main trend of that week was a downward adjustment before the explosion in the final curve.
Let's continue to Part 3, global factors that pushed prices, acting like excellent catalysts. To find answers to what happened, we need to look across the ocean to the United States a bit. From CME Fed Watch 2 data, which is an important indicator the market uses to guess the intentions of the US central bank or the Fed, it will be observed that previous forecasts showed the market was 64% confident the Fed would raise interest rates in September. But suddenly, this confidence plummeted to just 59%. This decrease in interest rate expectations is the key, because when people think interest rates won't rise, the dollar temporarily loses its appeal. And that is the golden opportunity for assets like gold to shine again. So why did the market think the Fed wouldn't raise interest rates? The main reasons stem from the US PCE inflation index for May coming out exactly as expected at 4.1%. Coupled with falling oil prices, this caused inflation concerns to begin to ease. When inflation seemed to be within a controllable range, the US dollar was sold off, causing it to weaken. The result was that the global gold market price surged up by 48.70 dollars, to close at 4,096.30 dollars per ounce. As for spot gold, it climbed to close the week at around 4.08 dollars per ounce. Everything is truly connected logically. Therefore, the crucial point that cannot be missed is: when global gold prices surged, how did it impact the local market to become a 750 baht jump in one go? The answer is our most powerful multiplier, which is the baht exchange rate. Data clearly indicates that during that week, the baht weakened to touch the level of 33.00 baht per dollar, which is the weakest point in over 1 year. The strengthening dollar pressured the baht, causing that when we convert the already expensive global gold price back into the weakening baht, the domestic gold price therefore experienced a double surge effect.
Now we have arrived at Part 4, with economic figures to watch, which will be a roadmap for next week. The financial market never sleeps. According to the timeline next week, from June 29 to July 3, we have a queue of packed economic reports waiting. Starting from the first day with JOLTS job openings figures and consumer confidence. As we enter mid-week, there are ADP private sector employment figures and the Chicago PMI index. And what absolutely cannot be missed are the figures on the last day of the week, such as Non-Farm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. This labor market data is the final answer the Fed will use to consider whether to hit the brakes or the accelerator on monetary policy going forward. And this is a big problem we must continue to ponder. While inflation figures seem to be stabilizing as many parties anticipated, will the strength of the labor market, from the figures to be gradually announced next week, become a game-changing variable? In the tug-of-war between global inflation and interest rates, who will be the winner? And in which direction will gold prices be swung next? This is what we all must follow closely. For this data deep dive, I hope it will make the overall picture clearer.
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