Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in good shape, that you are very happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal this Wednesday, October 8, 2025, facing a somewhat mixed crypto market. So, it's the performance of the last 24 hours because yesterday, well, altcoins took a bit more of a hit, Bitcoin too, but altcoins a bit more. Today, it's slowly going up again but be careful nonetheless because as I explained this morning on the VIP Telegram channel, we still have small bullish channels. Not very, very pretty. Hop, I'm turning off the sound. Well, so be very careful about that. And I'm talking about the VIP Telegram channel because it's Wednesday and tonight, like every Wednesday, a little analysis on the VIP Telegram channel, a little live where I will analyze all your cryptos one by one, bam bam bam bam. There you go. So, in short, for those who don't know, every Wednesday evening on the VIP Telegram channel, I do a little live and everyone sends one crypto per person, and when I've done everyone, they can have a second one. So I analyze all your cryptos live. Don't hesitate to come, it's totally free, you just need an account on BingX, the exchange I've been using for years and with which I'm partnered, with the link in the description, simply a BingX account associated with your love. So tonight from 9 PM to 10 PM, like every Wednesday evening, a little live, don't hesitate to come, it's free and it happens every Wednesday evening. Regarding the market for now. Well, it's still slightly in the green. Now, there are very good things. For example, look at the Bitcoin ETFs, we opened Monday with 1.19 billion dollars in Bitcoin ETF purchases. It's splendid. Yesterday, 875 million in Bitcoin ETF purchases. They don't have time, these Bitcoin ETFs. Since last week, investors don't have time. Now, in fact, investors, hop, they woke up, click, in their heads, it's like, oh, it's October, I'm pressing the buy button. It's madness. Ethereum too, 420 million dollars in purchases yesterday, the day before yesterday 176. It's very, very good. There you go, we're rather happy. In terms of altcoins, today a small doji candle, meaning you just have a small body in the middle and on each side, you have a wick like a cross candle. You call it a spinning top candle, whatever you want. Well, so yesterday, it wasn't very pretty. The upper Bollinger band rejected the altcoins. Today, a candle of indecision. Well, for now, a small momentum pair. What I don't like is the structure here. You see, so there are two solutions. Either here, we've finished the little drop and that's it, it's off for a B wave. We'll have the A here, then a B, and then a C, and all of that. It's just a small, quiet correction to go higher again. On the other hand, if it starts to draw a small bullish channel, then boom, it could be the continuation of the descent, an A, and all of that. It's the same A wave, and that means we're starting a slightly larger correction. So, in short, to summarize, it's the same for everyone. If we see a bullish zigzag here, it means we're making a real wave in its own right. So we'll have the A, the B, the C, that's very good. It means we have a small correction. If we start to fall quickly, meaning tonight or tomorrow, in that case, it would mean that all of this is a big A wave, then there will be a big rising B wave, but it means that after boom, a big C wave, so it will be a larger correction. So, in short, as usual, when we start to have a small impulse, well, we wait for it to finish, and it's the size of the impulse, the first one, that will give us the rest. You'll understand with Bitcoin. So Bitcoin, which had its little cute rally between approximately 118 and 126. It was stopped dead with yesterday's ugly candle, Tuesday, unfortunately. For now, a small green candle that is being rejected a bit by the top. It's starting to become a hammer candle. That will be less good. Now, the big support levels for Bitcoin are here. Tenkan at approximately 119,500. Kijun at 117,510, and the pivot at 117,000. Hello, the 114,300 approximately. The 50-day moving average, let's not forget the gap almost at 111,000. It's there, it says "I'm here, you see," and the market says "Wait, let me arrive," because gaps are often meant to be, unfortunately, closed. Well, we also see that we went into the overbought zone, so it's normal that we have a small rejection, that we took profits. For now, a little fatigue on the bulls' side. So what's concerning is the structure here. You see, we have what? We have an impulse, correction. So this has a much higher probability of having a continuation of the, of the drop rather than a reversal. There are two solutions: either this continues to be a zigzag. It's a big B wave in its own right. That would be good news. It means we have a very small correction. Small A, small B, small C, a small, quiet thing, and it goes higher again. On the other hand, if it starts to fall tonight, tomorrow, boom, like that, well, it's the same joke. It's the same joke, the same thing as with the altcoins. It would mean that all of this is the same A wave. We'll have to wait for the A wave to finish. There you go, for it to finish, then there will be the B wave, and then there will be the C wave. And so you've understood that the bigger the A, the bigger the corrective structure will be. So, what will make us do something like this to reach the gap at $110,000, $111,000? Well, that remains possible. So if we see it start to fall like this and then rise again, it means we have the A, the B, then the C. On the other hand, it would be a very good structure because it would mean it's going to reach the gap on a regular flat, and that's an upward continuation structure. So that would be rather good news. So, well, it will depend on the size of the correction. On the other hand, here, who says small bullish channel says, well, it doesn't look very good for what's next. You see what I mean, right? And when we look at the liquidity, we see that there's something to be sought up to approximately for now around 115,000. So is it only the A wave here that will go and reach, boom boom boom, up to 115,000, then the B will rise, and while it rises? You see, all of this will be empty. Then the B wave will rise quietly to take care of all of this, and while new shorts accumulate, and then the C wave, boom, it will reverse to look for long positions and eat the gap here. Well, that remains possible. So, we'll wait and see what the size, or rather the size of wave A, will do. And then, given the large liquidity to the south, well, we won't be surprised if it takes a little trip anyway. Regarding Ethereum, so yesterday a not-so-good candle at all, today a candle of nothing at all. Well, I don't like these candles much, these spinning top candles, candles like this, they don't scream "big bullishness," you see. So for now, the Tenkan and the moving average at 4400, it wouldn't be good if it starts to break them, for example, the Kijun at 4300. In that case, it's a descent that can go down to 3009, if you like. For now, the bears are tired, it's not mega great. Now, we are on the first wave, and here, it's the same as Bitcoin, so either it will be a very small correction, like it pushes slightly, it pulls back, that's wave A, then there will be the small B, then we'll make a small C, a small, quiet correction, and it will go back towards 5000. On the other hand, if tonight, tomorrow, boom, it continues to fall, well, there you go. Ah, well, same thing. It would simply mean that this is the big wave A, and then there will be a big wave B, and then boom, there will be a big wave C, and it will be a larger structure to reverse. So, for now, you have to be patient. If we look at the liquidity on Ethereum, there's a small cluster to be eaten around 4250. So if it wants to continue a bit, it has the right to inch up to around 4250. It's not very far. You see, if Bitcoin falls, it will fall too, 4250, and then maybe that's where it will start a B wave. So, we'll have to consider that the size of the, of the, of the first wave, well, it's what will determine the size of the structure, but these will be corrective structures for a continuation of the trend, okay? These are not structures for the top, the bull run market is over, not at all, okay? These are small corrections to go higher later, there's nothing to be afraid of. Well, Solana, same thing, yesterday not a good day, today, well, it's held back around its 50-day moving average at 216. What wouldn't be good is breaking 216 because that's heading towards 194 on the Bollinger Bands. For now, you see the bulls are tired. Soon a bearish cross on the MACD and the small channel is not good. Well, this is not good, not good, right? It's like Bitcoin, unfortunately, it has more probability of breaking downwards. You see, impulse, correction, continuation. The only small hope is that instead of having a direct break downwards which tells us, well, all of this continues to be the big A wave, the same wave. So that means the correction will be big. What we would like to see is rather that it continues, it lingers, it lingers, that would be good news because then it will still fall, but it would mean that the structure will be smaller to reverse. Well, so how far could Solana fall if it validates the break of this channel downwards, well, it doesn't have much to liquidate, you see, it can liquidate around the direction of 200, between 200 and 210. So, ultimately, there's not much, and to the north, there's quite a bit. So even if it breaks this small channel downwards, it won't reach $100. You see, even if it breaks, it will reach around 210, maybe slightly below. On the other hand, after that, there will be the B wave, which will be a rising wave, and it will go and liquidate everything that's happening here up to around 240. Regarding XRP now. Ah yes, yesterday's candle was not good, right? Yesterday's candle, wow, Tuesday, it dipped. Well, the small candle, it's not very pretty on two candles, with experience, when you have a big red candle and then a small green candle like this that looks like a doji, it's not top top top. Well, so here, well, we're not surprised, it also goes with the structure, right? So the next support for XRP is 274. Are the bulls there? It's a party, don't worry, it will push. Well, the bulls are tired. It's a bearish cross on the MACD tomorrow, you see. So, well, and the structure, well, it's the same, not mega pretty. Impulse, and if we see the small bullish channel form here, then boom, it will be heading towards the upper Bollinger Band at 274, like everyone else, unfortunately. Now, there's not much to liquidate below. So, you see, it can go, yes, up to 274, it wants to eat a little, but there's not much, you see. There's not a lot. It's rather above because, well, it has already done, it has already done a big part of wave A, I think. So, at worst, a small channel to finish its big wave A for everyone, this is valid for everyone, to grab a little bit to the south, and then there will be this B wave which will be a rising wave that will go, like for everyone, to eat what's happening to the north because there's quite a bit to the north. So, welcome to a new corrective structure. Will it be small, medium, or large? We'll know that tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, with its new set of data. Well, let's move on to traditional finance. Well, rather green, let's say, for Wall Street today. For Europe, it's the same, it's very green. Nvidia is doing well, and when Nvidia is doing well, you know a French song that says "When the pet goes, everything goes." Well, here it's "When Nvidia goes, everything goes." Well, when Nvidia pushes, well, it's good, everyone is happy, all of tech, and Europe, and European tech is also happy. Tonight at 8 PM, the FOMC, the minutes of the open, of the open, of the FOMC, right, of the Open Market Committee, right, the open markets. And so, we'll just see the summary of the meeting from 3 weeks ago. Well, so, will it really influence the markets tonight at 8 PM? I'm not really, really, really sure. You see, it's not like it's a speech by Powell or something like that. And then, on Friday, we'll just have the consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan. But that's also not a strong event. So, in short, there's almost nothing important this week. Why? The American government is still closed. There you go, everyone at home eating chips in front of, in front of, in front of what? In front of which series? But right now, I've been watching "The Alienist," I found it nice, and I finished "Foundation" as a TV series, I find it very nice too. There you go. For now, we have a 92.5% probability of a rate cut for October 29th. Well, investors, well, the boat is going straight, right? And as long as we're heading towards a rate cut, everything will be fine. If, however, there's a big iceberg, well, no rate cut or something really ugly, well, the boat will take a beating, you see. The boat is the market. But for now, as long as there's no big iceberg, it's moving forward. S&P 500, let's go, boom, we're in the green. The Nasdaq too, the Dow Jones too, the Russell 2000 too. European tech took a little hit yesterday, today it's trying to recover slightly. All Asian markets are doing okay. Gold continues its rise. But how far will it go? At some point, it will probably have to stop because after infinity, there's not much left. Well, so gold is pushing well. Well, it's always concerning to see gold exploding so quickly, so rapidly. At some point, it will reverse, it will hurt all the investors who are FOMOing because here, well, gold up over 50% since the beginning of the year, those who are buying now are a bit FOMOing, not very, very pretty. Its cousins, silver and copper, are also exploding. Well, well, these are not mega good news. Crypto stocks, well, with yesterday's candle, all the miners have calmed down a bit, unfortunately. Now, some are still managing to do less ugly things like here, Coinbase, like Block, from Jack Dorsey, the former CEO of Twitter, but some are taking a hit, like MicroStrategy, which tried to recover its 200-day moving average here, its average price over the last 200 days, which is very important, very watched by investors. On August 22nd, it said no. It tried to recover its 100-day moving average on Thursday, September 18th, it said no. It recovered the 200-day moving average, well, that was Friday, then yesterday, well, the day before yesterday, Monday, and yesterday, it said no. So it's not very, very pretty for MicroStrategy. No wonder our friend Michael Saylor isn't buying more Bitcoin. It's also a refuge in American debt. You see, between yesterday and today, they are buying the 10-year, they are buying the 20-year, they are buying the 30-year. At least that calms down the yields a bit. So we can clearly see that investors are still going into the stock markets, but they are also going into defensive stocks like gold and the bond market. And the dollar is also pushing. Well, my goodness, everything is pushing right now. Now, when everything is pushing, that's not very good news, you see. So the dollar is rising, that's not very good. It means there was a little pressure on risky assets, theoretically. So, personally, I see today a dollar that's pushing, gold that's pushing, a bond market that's pushing, and stocks that are pushing. Ah, something is wrong here. There's something to be careful about. Often, it's rather the stock side that's pushing that's not going too well, you see. Well, so we'll follow all of this closely. The problem is that the American government is closed. There are no macro figures, there's nothing. So for now, everyone doesn't really know how to position themselves, everyone is watching each other, everyone is looking for each other, and everyone is saying, "Well, what's going to happen now? What's coming? Will there be a bearish catalyst? A bullish catalyst? Where are we going? Are we going more into high-yield stocks, are we going more into defensive stocks because it's going to hurt, what do we do?" And since there's no news, no macro figures, nothing, no data, well, people are completely lost. So we will, of course, monitor this. For now, be careful with cryptos, the small bullish channels are not very, very pretty. Well, thank you for listening, I send you kisses. See you tonight for the live at 9 PM on the VIP Telegram channel, link in the description. Kisses, see you later. Bye bye.