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Yeah.
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Warning. This video and all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are opinions of the creators only and do not constitute legal trading investment or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you prepared to lose it all.
All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and today we're going to do what we always do, which is just repeat ourselves over and over and over again until something changes. As always, I've got a few kind of random tabs to kick things off. Then we'll talk about some Bitcoin news setups, that kind of thing. I've got a very nice setup here from Kimazari, which I want to share with you guys. He was kind enough to provide me with that this morning. And then we want to talk a little bit about gold and its relationship to Bitcoin. check in on some charts, TA live positions, all of that good stuff. I think finally, we've got a dip setting up to buy on the S&P. I think it's been months since I've been able to find a place to add to my S&P 500 trade. So, bring on a little bit of a pullback. I think we're about halfway down and then hopefully we can add one final time into the end of the year.
So, kicking things off, as I said, this is the finance channel that just repeats itself over and over again. And that's exactly what I'm going to do, right? So, I'm still making the case that we are in the middle of forming a Dalai Lama. I see a lot of tape slaves out there and a lot of these tape slaves, you know, as soon as we go up, they start to be like, "Yeah, bottoms in, blah, blah." And then as soon as we start to pull back a little bit, okay, they're very quick to say, "Well, that's it. Market's top distribution, all of this kind of thing." But remember, so far, we've been calling for a Dalai Lama, and we're most of the way complete now. Okay, we've had the flush, we've had the counter trend bounce, we're now rolling over again, and then hopefully what comes in here is a higher low, and off we go. Okay.
Now, normally it takes about a week to complete this pattern, which will put us somewhere around Friday for the upside portion of the MW pattern to play out, but so far that's what I think we've got here. We've got the MW to the downside. We're now rolling over and then we'll do something like this. That's what I'm calling for. And actually, there's no wick on this chart, but if I use a different Bitcoin pairing here, like this is the buy bit one, the PES. Okay, you can see this is certainly at the moment, okay, a big MU pattern forming in here. So, all we need is this. And then hopefully by Friday, maybe into early next week, we can get that push off and say happy dates. we dai llamaed our way out of here. So, we're still calling for that until invalidated. Invalidation for this would be anything other than that. Okay. So, if we kind of chop sideways for a while, that would not really be a good look. And certainly, if we to come down and pierce the low, then we have to really start to put downside scenarios on the table, really entertain that the top was in and this whole thing is distribution. But, as you're going to see in a little minute, I've consulted the resident WOFF expert Kim Zabi and asked him if the volume profile matches. So, we'll go through his answer to that in a minute and we'll figure out whether this is actually likely to be distribution. I see some people calling it distribution. But again, we're going to do what we should do here, which is marry up a volume profile because remember, WOFF is actually meaningless. It's totally worthless without the volume profile. And you will always see YouTubers and Twitter guys posting WOFF either accumulation, reaccumulation, or distribution. But they never, I say never, they hardly ever post it with a volume profile. And if the volume profiles don't match, then the pattern is completely invalidated. A lot of people don't know that. So, we're going to do it right. Okay. We're going to marry up the volume profile and see whether or not this is distribution or whether the people calling for this to be distribution are on the wrong side of the trade. But again, in summary, for now, I've been saying Dalai Lama and I'm still saying Dalai Lama. No surprises there.
As another kind of random slide, the tell that to the bond market has now officially been coined Camel's razor. So, it's really nice to have my own contribution to this space. Most people are familiar with Okam's razor, which is the simplest explanation is usually correct. Hanom's razor is one of my favorites. Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity. And now we got camel's razor, right? Tell that to the bond market, which essentially means you don't need to guess or theorize about the Federal Reserve's next move. The bond market, especially the US 10-year Treasury yield, embeds that information through the aggregate pricing and expectations. The Fed follows the bond market, not the other way around. Okay? So, I'm going to continue to push this as an idea because I actually think it's brilliant. Okay? The more you see people speculating on interest rates, the more you see people cheering on cuts or hikes or talking about the Fed or having any kind of opinion at all really. Just tell them to tell that to the bond market. Okay, that's all you need. You don't need any skill. You don't need any knowledge. You simply say tell that to the bond market.
For my next random slide before we get into the crux of today's episode, we keep seeing this dollar debasement trade, right? But context is everything and the Twitter especially the internet in general likes to latch on to these ideas without really doing the sufficient due diligence. Everyone's talking about the dollar debasement trade because year to date this is what the Dixie looks like. But if we zoom out as you can see on the left hand chart going back to around 2010 we've done nothing but trend up in higher highs and higher lows. Okay. And with deflation around the corner into next year it seems only reasonable that we're probably going to get another pop cementing this current low as another higher low. Even if we go slightly lower in the short term, it's probably still going to be a higher low above this one. Remember, context is key and the people paring narratives are simply that parrots, right?
It's actually been a while since I've mentioned risk management. There is a tutorial in the playlist for anyone that hasn't seen it. Highly recommend it. If you do not manage risk in your trading account, then you are wasting your time. It is mathematically guaranteed that you will not be able to be profitable over time if you do not have a risk management strategy in place. And one part of risk management is never accepting large losses. Okay, you can see if you only allow up to a 10% loss, then it only requires your next trade to be 11% gains to break even. But by the time you get to a 40% loss, you start to need almost 70% return on your following trade just to get back to break even. By the time you accept a 70% loss, you need over 230% to get back to break even. And by the time you're down at 90% losses, okay, the market needs to move 900% in your favor on the next go just to get back to break even. So, the way that you stay in this game for a long time is to have stop losses in place, manage risk, and keep the risk small. Okay? If you can just make sure all of your losses are small and seemingly insignificant, then you can stay in this game for a long, long time. And when you do eventually hit a 200% trade, that's money in the bank. But what you don't want to be doing is holding something down 70% so that when you eventually find yourself in a 200% profitable trade, you're only moving yourself back to break even. And that is why the majority of retail accounts look like this. Make money, give it all back. make money, give it all back. Make money, give it all back. It's because they don't have the risk management strategy. I know a bunch of the camel crew members, for example, I'm always harping on about this, but for the non-members, this is a super important concept, okay? Because we need to be honest with ourselves. If you're not going to manage risk, then you are simply wasting your time. I can promise you it is mathematically certain you will not make money over the long term without a risk management strategy. Okay? It's literally impossible. So, think about it that way. Like I said, there's a tutorial in the playlist for free. You can go and watch that and understand how it works. There's also another one in there which is called something like example portfolio or model portfolio. I'd recommend watching that one too because that's got some extra risk management type deals and portfolio construction and uh how to add to winning trades without taking additional risk. Right? So, how to size up and double your exposure without taking additional risk. That's in the model portfolio thing from the playlist as well.
All right, so next up we got a bit of news, a few chart reviews, and then we're going to talk about gold and head into the TA and live trades. As always, if you enjoy seeing me repeat myself every day, okay, until something changes, then by all means, hit that subscribe button. Forbes has just come out and said the current president of the states is now one of the largest Bitcoin investors on the planet. Apparently, he owns what is estimated to be almost a billion dollars of Bitcoin. If true, you'd kind of think he probably knows something and he's probably highly incentivized for this asset class to do well over the coming decade. Meanwhile, over in the world of IBIT, which is the Black Rockck ETF, look at the inflows, right? Consistently ticking up. This is a massive underlying bid here and we've currently got the price of the IBE ETF right inside the window for a daily cycle low here. So, it's going to be really interesting to see if we can pick this in the next few days, get a swing and a reversal. But this right here, according to the indicator, is saying don't get too bearish yet cuz we're about to find a daily cycle low and reverse out of here.
It's been a while since we checked in on the global M2 chart, but here it is. Okay, I'm still making the case that I don't think this thing carries as much weight as many people do. I know the argument here will be, well, it's not going to track one to one. And that's true. It's probably not. And yeah, I am calling for higher prices, but I just don't think this chart is as useful as people make out. I still making that case simply because if you overlay it yourself, even with an offset, and everyone's got a slightly different offset as well, right? But regardless of which one of those you use, when you zoom all the way out, you can see there are times when these things go completely in the opposite directions. So, I think this is kind of a cherrypicked look. And I do think it's a bit weird to kind of zoom in like this and exclude all the prior data. But to each their own. I'm not trying to tell anyone not to use it. By all means, use it if you are comfortable using it. But I am still making the case that this thing doesn't carry as much weight as the majority of the market participants think it does.
And now a quick shout out to Keem Mazabi. For anyone that doesn't know, I'm sure most of the camel crew know this man. He's also on Slice. He's very active. Does like day trades on Bitcoin and stuff. So if anyone wants to follow his trades on Slice, you can do that there for the day traders amongst the group. But I asked him to provide me with a distribution chart for Bitcoin. And I said, "Does it show based on the volume profile signs of distribution or is that invalid?" Because I see a lot of people out here currently calling this WOFF distribution. And again, if you don't have the volume, okay, then the whole pattern is invalid. Kimmo has very kindly agreed to bless us with one of these charts. And you can see right here, okay, that we've got volume spikes coming in at the lows, which suggest absorption of supply, okay? And we lack volume at the highs. Now, if it was actually distribution, we would have the inverse, okay? There would be big volume into the spikes as large whales or institutions or entities are emptying large clips of volume into the highs, right? That's what the distribution is. They pump the price up into the highs. They empty large clips and they, here's the key part, distribute into this distribution pattern. And then at the lows, we see less volume because the smaller entities have less ability to absorb the lows than the institutions which are emptying clips at the top if this is distribution. But what we've actually got here is the complete opposite. The big boys are absorbing large quantities of supply into the lows and there is a lack of volume into the highs which is actually therefore a show of strength and thus calling this distribution doesn't really make sense at the moment.
Kimmo then went on to annotate this a little bit. He says, "As long as the price remains above the previous range, then this looks like a breakout and a couple of hard retests which is unable to break back down." So here's your range. Okay, it looks like a breakout with a couple of hard retests which are unable to get back down below the range. That is for now at least. And again, if the Dalai Lama pattern is in play, then what we should see here is this be a hard retest. Mw our way out of here perhaps and then off we go. Okay. And then all would be right with the world. The daily chart still has a higher low after making a higher high. low, high, higher low, higher high above these highs from here. And yet another higher low. So even though it doesn't feel like it, this is absolutely still a bullish structure for now. Okay, it can change quickly, but it hasn't changed yet until we get new lower lows set. And the volume is picking up at the lows, suggesting there are bids there. Okay, some big entities are bidding the lows. There's not much volume at the highs, which says there's no real selling happening up there, which again speaks to this not really being distribution. So if price continues to beat at the lows, eventually it is going to break down. But even then, we have to still first consult this idea of a weekly higher low around 88K before we can actually flip super duper uber bearish. So, if we do continue to kind of splat around here and eventually break this low, we would look for a higher low at around 88K somewhere in this neighborhood to come in for a weekly cycle low and then a big push off and hopefully we could get something like this. And then even then, as bearish as this would feel as distribution looking as it would be at face value, we would still have high low, higher high, higher low, looking for higher highs.
Now, if this setup is in play, I would think it probably pushes the ultimate top into Q1 of next year. That was never a base case of mine, although I've consistently said it's not out of the question. And, you know, it doesn't change the four-year cycle because that's measured low to low. Even though a lot of people will start calling it a five-year cycle and say it's broken and all that kind of thing, but it will just be slightly more right translated than it is now. That's all that really means from a cycle perspective. So, it's not outside the parameters of possibility. Although, it's never been my base case. I do still think we're going to top before Christmas, but time will tell about that. If I'm right about topping before Christmas, it would speak to the Dalai Lama bit here. Okay, it would just speak to this into wherever that top forms, I'd be calling the top then. Hopefully, this is closer to 200k. But if it's 150k, whatever. Okay, once we get some trend line breakdowns from here before Christmas, I'd be thinking I got to call the top. We'll see if Bitcoin is not going above 160K this cycle guy. Okay, we'll see if he's right. Some of you are asking me to put that on a mug.
Just as a quick recap, Dalai Lama in our way out of here if Camel is right. And as Kimo has showed, that would actually make sense because the volume profile does not match this to be a WOFF distribution here. And again, if we do break below this range, then we would look for a weekly higher low to come in at around 88ishK. And then at that point, we could draw a line under that and say no matter what, if we come back below there, we have to start calling tops. And one final line in the sand for me at least is if we do dalai llama out of here, okay, then the moment we get to new highs, I think I'm going to draw a line here underneath wherever the lowest low is and say that is my new bull market invalidation and we come back below there and I'm out. So for now at least, we're looking for bullish continuation at Dalai Lama that should complete by the end of the week. And the first sign of things starting to go wrong and that call being incorrect is new lows. But until such time as we get new lows, then I remain bullish and I'm going to keep saying the same thing day in day out until something changes.
The last couple of things I wanted to talk about is gold. If you are familiar with this channel, you will know we have had this silly yellow fractal. Okay, I'm not a fractal guy. I always mock and jer at these. Although the gold one has been closely tracking all through here. It was remarkable how well it tracked. And then when it got to this weekly cycle consolidation, it did so right at the same time, but it just took about twice as long. So we shoved it over and since then it's still back on track. This fractal right here is from gold during its bull run in the '70s. And so with that in mind, when we look at the RSI at the top for gold right here, you can see that it has just reached 90. It's just surpassed 90. And the last time it did that was in the '80s. So I continue to make the case that the days are numbered here for gold. If it does continue to follow this fractal, it will top by the end of this month. Okay, this fractal would top around the 29th or the 30th of October. it would be at over six and a halfk. Now again, fractals are the crayons of TA, right? They're incredibly biased and subjective. There's always a bunch of fractals that show confluence, that show the complete opposite thing and show just a complete sideways type of deal. Okay? And traders and investors like me here like to grab these fractals that fit their own bias and their own narrative and ignore all of the other fractals, right? But there will be dozens and dozens of fractals that show gold topping here, gold going on forever, gold ranging sideways, and everything in between, right? And I just don't have those fractals. Instead, I've just found this one that fits my bias or my narrative. That's why fractals, as I often say, are the crayons of TA because they are only really useful for YouTubers to illustrate a point. Right? If I use this fractal, people go, "Oh, yeah, I can see that." Right? He's not just making stuff up. Yeah, it kind of looks like it's tracing, roughly speaking. Versus if I was to draw the same thing with a yellow squiggle, right? I know some of the hardcore followers trust the yellow squiggle, okay? But it just doesn't look as compelling, especially to new eyes or people that aren't familiar with my yellow squiggle drawing ability, right? That people have a hard time believing, especially when it's earlier in the cycle, right? Before seeing all this price action, if I drew the squiggle, people would be like, "Yeah, no way, bro." Okay, but you put a fractal there and watch it track and suddenly everyone goes, "Oh, yeah, I can see what you mean." Right? And that's really the only use of these fractals, right? These analoges only are useful for YouTubers to show you what their bias is in a bit more of a believable way than just drawing a squiggle. But if indeed this is to continue, then we will have topped for gold at over 6 1/2K by the end of this month, which suggests that we're going to start really gapping up hard here. And if that's the case, then we'll draw yet another trend line angle, something akin to this. Okay. And the moment we violate, we'll be exiting all of our precious metal positions in the level three member section. I shudder to think how high things like CJ will be and the mining ETFs and that kind of thing if this happens, but I'm certainly not betting on it, okay? I'm absolutely not betting on a big gap up move here to 6 and a halfK. Instead, what I really want to do is continue to just trade what's in front of us. Okay? So, right now, we keep pushing the trades and we keep staying long and strong all the while we're above support. But the moment these start to break down, I've got enough profit here. I don't care, right? I don't care if it goes higher after I sell. I just want to get out and lock in these profits. the moment we start to lose these support levels. But I thought it was pretty interesting that I've long been a proponent of this 70s fractal repeating here. And for the most part, it has. Okay. And right as it has, we have also reached the same level on the RSI, which this is the only other time in history the RSI has been at this level for gold on the monthly time frame. So the too long didn't read. Gold should be pretty close to the top here in terms of time. And hopefully not in terms of price, right? Hopefully it's got some big gaps ahead of it. But in terms of time, I think we are just weeks away now at the most. And that is very very historically significant for Bitcoin for anyone that understands this chart right here. Okay, you can see down the bottom, gold tops and moves into consolidation and Bitcoin goes on a parabolic tear to the upside. We saw the same thing here. We see gold top move into a consolidation sideways only for Bitcoin to rip into its highs. Looking for a top to occur anytime in the next couple of weeks. That would be normal and to be expected. That would be right on par with that 70s to 80s fractal repeating. It would make sense from the RSI perspective as I just showed you. And if gold can do something like this, right, top and start to move sideways and down into its half cycle low in the 8-year cycle or it said another way, its four-year cycle late 2026, then hopefully that can catalyze Bitcoin's final run to the top into around the Christmas time frame. So, I suspect if this is in play, it's going to happen incredibly fast. Okay? I don't think we're going to get these long extended bull bull runs like we saw back here. I think instead you're just going to see gold kind of do this sneaky distribution type top, lots of chop and volatility, but gradually just work its way down. And I think Bitcoin is just going to go pretty much in a straight line up for a few weeks and then have this whopping nasty great correction as we enter a recession next year. But time will tell. Okay, so far we can't really be cheering this on because gold is still moving higher. Okay, so the higher this goes and the longer this goes on for, the more kind of sideways and short we're probably going to have to tolerate from Bitcoin. But obviously this trend in gold is also getting very stretched and very late. You know, this is not going to go on forever. And so pretty soon, relatively speaking, gold's going to top and then it should be Bitcoin's turn to fly. So I think we kind of said all there is to say about gold. Okay, long and strong until it starts to break down. And if we're really lucky, we'll get yet another angle here as we start to gap up towards 6K. It's not my base case. As I said, I don't think that's the smart bet to bet on such extreme price action, but I'm open to it at least. And the trend line should keep us in if that is on the table.
for the S&P. I think finally we are getting a daily and a weekly cycle flush here. Finally, we're getting a correction bigger than a couple of percent to get behind. I think hopefully what we're going to see is this two drives pattern or ABC the Elliot wave system, right? We get something like this and then we can label that, let the indicator pick it for confluence as always and then get behind that trade. And as we do that, we'll readjust the trend lines to encompass that and that becomes our new invalidation. Same stuff over and over and over again.
For Bitcoin, it's really just a case of seeing if this Dalai Lama continues to hold. And it holds all the while it doesn't set new lows. Remember, so long as there are no new lower lows, then this is very much in play. It normally takes about a week. Okay? So, let's look for between Friday and Sunday for this pattern to complete to the upside if it's on the table. And if we make new lows by then, then we can start to put other scenarios on the table and think that something else is going on. Other than that, camel's razor in play. Okay. Tell that to the bond market. This is going to continue. This is going to persist.
I know a bunch of you like me to cover oil and I always forget, but I've remembered on this particular occasion. So, this is still what I think is going on for oil, okay? I still think we're going to bleed into next year. I think deflation is going to be really hard on this asset. I think by yellow squiggle might be conservative to the downside. I actually think although this is supposed to be a freak event that we went negative right during the C19 era, I actually think we could probably do do that again. Okay, I really do. We'll we'll find out. Okay, but it doesn't really matter. What matters to me is finding a major yearly low and then getting long because out of there I think there's a 10x plus trade but that's a long long way off at the moment. And I guess while I'm here remembering to do charts, we can look at Ethereum which I think should also have a Dalai Lama in it. Same as XRP, right? You can see like the Dalai Lama patterns there and all of them and probably there and sold and whatever else. So copy and paste the Dalai Lama onto your favorite altcoin and hope for the best.
Bitcoin dominance, not really much progress, right? This could easily be a bare flag before a move lower or we could be grinding our way along here or kind of even range, right? Range was a cooler mine for a long time that even if it broke down, it wouldn't go back to the lows. It would just kind of chop around in here. But any of those scenarios are on the table. I think it's a little too early to tell. So, other than that, do continue to follow along as we continue to repeat ourselves over and over again until something changes. I'm your boy Camel. I hope you're doing well and until next time, all the best from me. Cheers. Bye.
Rocking the markets with his contrarian scream.
Trades like a pro.
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Sticking to his guns in his money.
He's a bad ass.
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