Transcription
Hello, good day to everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review. We will talk about BTC in the first instance and then we will focus on the altcoins to avoid for the next cycle. Okay? I will try to share with you a lot of knowledge and skills that I have acquired over the last crypto cycles, and today it leads me to think that owning these altcoins is simply a mistake in the long term. I had already made a video 2 or 3 years ago on this subject, and well, this bull market has proven me right. Today, I will slightly revisit the principles I mentioned last time, updating them a bit. So, before I begin, I remind you, you have the Black Friday offer, €200 off the Crypto Investor program for those who want a framework, a method, to know when to exit, when to enter the market on a particular crypto, okay? We will include fundamental analysis, tokenomics analysis, technical analysis, having a portfolio adapted to your profile, knowing which crypto to choose, and so on and so forth. 12 modules, 30 hours of video, personalized private message support. So, here you have all the information, okay? It's truly a game-changer program that will simply allow you to succeed whether we are in a bull market or a bear market. You get €200 off, and if you want more information about the program, I invite you to click on the first link in the description.
So, I'll start here with BTC. BTC is still lateralizing in the short term at this resistance level of $92,000. We see that yesterday, we did have a small selling reaction upon contact with this resistance zone. As we can see, well, we simply have a wick here, a high wick that shows us that buyers pushed, sellers simply manifested themselves, and for now, well, we can clearly see that this level still acts as resistance. So, I remain cautious; for me, there's nothing to do here. We are truly in a technical context that is complicated to trade, whether in the short or medium term. Why? Because yes, we are in a rebound, but we are at resistance. So, as I've been saying lately, not much is changing my plan that I have in mind. Either I have a pullback here at this level, which could be a good zone to look for longs. Why? Because we would be at a support level. We would also be at our long re-entry zone around the 0.18 Fibonacci level. This means that buyers who marked a bottom here, if they want to set a higher low than the previous one, well, there's a good chance it will be in this zone. So, a small liquidity grab below these lows with a buying reaction, we could be in a good zone here. Now, be careful here; I'm watching for a buying reaction because if we do this, well, we could very well do this and have a continuation of our bearish momentum. So, you could take a long here, thinking we'll form a larger structure, but being very cautious with a very precise entry and good risk management because we are a bit against the trend. So, either this is the first scenario I'm watching. Second scenario, we break through, okay, and we pull back. We break through, we pull back, we come back to test $92,500, and then we can look for a long with an invalidation. Well, if we re-enter this support level, since we broke it, we can't go back below it, and our target would be $99,000. For now, the plan for the medium term is quite simple, let's say. The weekly close is coming in a day. The monthly close is also coming in a day. We'll have time to talk about it again tomorrow, but well, a monthly close that takes us out of this lateralization phase downwards. We had four monthly closes at the same level here. Ideally, if we can push a bit in these last hours that remain and try to close above $9200, that would be quite good. However, we don't have a monthly close that reverses our momentum either. It's not like this type of close here where, when we closed below this level, well, I expected a lot of lateralization before starting an upward trend again because we had broken a major low. As long as we hold this level on the monthly chart, we can say that the trend is preserved and that we are still making higher lows and higher highs. On the other hand, yes, on the weekly chart, the trend for me is reversed from the moment we went below this level and below this level. So, ideally, to reverse our momentum, either we have a reversal pattern here, okay? Like a W structure, break of the previous high, something that shows us that well, simply, buyers are present, as we had here. You see, oops, liquidity grab, break of this high, re-entry. That was bullish, right? At that moment, I remember the plan I had as soon as we went back above, well, I had worked hard on the upside in the short to medium term, even long term, because we had signals that were quite good. Well, as I said, either we form this type of pattern, or we would need to re-enter quite high to find a bullish signal. We would need to go back above $106,000. We are still far from that, and it would be a somewhat late entry; we would be quite close to the top. So, ideally, I would like to see a reversal pattern here. And if we don't manage to structure it and sellers are still pushing, well, the next zone to watch for buying interest will be this zone between $70,000 and $75,000. There.
On BTC in the short term, oops, I'm putting on the moving averages. Very good. What do we have? And well, low volatility between everything that is TS giving reduced volatility on the markets. We are arriving at the weekend level, so also less volatility. Anyway, we just need to put on the volumes. Oops, we put on the volumes. We can see it clearly. Well, it's very low here since Friday compared to all this phase where we had a bit more volume. Generally, Friday, Saturday, Sunday are always phases where volumes are much, much lower. Now, that doesn't mean we can't pump, okay? Because if there's less volume, there can be a bit less liquidity, and if there's someone with a big buying pressure that comes in, with no counterparty on the other side or vice versa, it can still create a lot of volatility. But well, historically, the weekend remains periods where there is less volatility. Personally, here with I could look for longs at the contact of the 15-minute tunnel, the 1-hour tunnel, particularly what I did on Ethereum. Here, as I said, it's the weekend, we're entering a range, we're close to a resistance, we have a flat 15-minute chart, a 1-hour chart that's starting to flatten. I know I won't have any setups; I won't trade this weekend. The market context here from a technical point of view doesn't inspire confidence, and I don't want to take a risk on either setups that don't trigger or two, I won't push a trade. Okay? Until I have strong momentum, whether it's upwards or downwards. Here, if we do this, okay, we lose the 15-minute and the 1-hour, well, I can take shorts again because then I'll have a convergence of all the Vegas tunnels, and I could clearly take shorts to revisit this zone. For me, here, if we set a top, okay, we validate this distribution structure, we start to lose the $90,000 level, well, we could have a confirmation of a market top. Here, in the short term, well, there's a good chance of returning to these lows, which, as I said, is a good zone to potentially take a long if we want to position ourselves as buyers. Anyway, the levels are simple, you see, even if we remove the moving averages, we have our resistance zone here at this upper extremity, our support zone at this lower extremity. Here, we are closer to the upper extremity. Are we taking longs? No, because from a risk-reward perspective, it's not interesting.
So, on BTC, I'll quickly talk about Ethereum and then we'll look at the altcoins that I advise you to avoid, in any case. Well, Ethereum, similarly, we will see another monthly close here that is a bit uglier than on BTC. Why? Because we are re-entering this level, this zone of $3800. Yes, $3800. We have a monthly close that is not incredible. Typical of this type of monthly close where we had a bullish re-entry. Here, we have a bearish re-entry. Now, we quickly went to test this support level, similar to what we did here. You see that we re-entered, we quickly went to test this resistance level. Now, what we need to see is whether buyers are maintaining here. If that's the case, we can set a bottom and revisit $3800-$4000. However, if there's no demand, if no buyers show up, for me, it's a direction towards $2200. I think this bottom is well established. It's unlikely we'll go below it, unless BTC really enters a major bear market and goes to test $40,000-$50,000. Even if BTC pushes to $75,000 or $70,000, it could revisit $2200. But here, we have a major bottom that has been established with a good deviation and re-entry. For me, even these lows, for me, these are lows that must be protected. If here on Ethereum, we manage to settle below this level, it would be really ugly in the long term, and potentially, we would have a 5-year top forming on Ethereum. And it's likely that Ethereum won't make new ATHs for years and years. Well, in any case, that's how I see it. Typically, on a strong long-term trend, we shouldn't lose these levels. These are levels that absolutely must be defended. We can retest them, no problem, but we shouldn't re-enter them. In the short term. Well, I was looking at the BTC chart to monitor Ethereum in the medium term, let's say, because we are not at a resistance zone on Ethereum currently, whereas on BTC. If I put on the moving averages, Ethereum remains a bit more bullish than BTC. We can see clearly, it has simply lost its 15-minute tunnel, which acted as support for a long time. Here, we have a textbook case of an upward momentum that can be traded here, here, here, as I did at this level, at this level, at this level to continue the trend. Okay? And well, we are rather here in a context where well, we are losing the 15-minute, but you see someone trading this upward momentum, well, it's quite interesting. Okay? It's quite interesting to have upward momentum to trade like this. However, you shouldn't be late because the more upward impulse we have, the more our trend exhausts itself. Okay? And that doesn't mean that we are here, we don't assume we'll lose this tunnel, that the trend stops, but after several touches, well, it's better to be early in a trend than late, okay? Because after several impulses, we estimate after three or four impulses, the trend becomes mature. So, you can position yourself on the second, on the third, but after that, you reduce the risk. Well, you reduce your risk because it's complicated. And here, we see that we are potentially reversing this trend. We will have to watch at the 15-minute tunnel level if we get rejected. If we get rejected, we lose the 1-hour. Well, we could enter a bearish momentum and retest these lows. Okay? See if we can form a larger structure later. I think this is a highly possible scenario. I would be surprised if we went up in a straight line, the market will retrace, and especially since we are in a rebound within a bearish momentum. I wouldn't be surprised to retest this low to form a larger structure. That's it for BTC and Ethereum. Now, regarding altcoins.
So, we are in a context where I know the majority of people listening to me are mainly invested in altcoins because BTC doesn't interest them, Ethereum doesn't interest them. Why? Simply because BTC cannot do a 10x, whereas altcoins can. Except that in the end, BTC in 2023, 2024, 2025, will do a 7x overall. Have your altcoins done a 7x? I'm sure most will say no because altcoins haven't performed, altcoins have done nothing compared to BTC. There's something you need to understand about altcoins that many people struggle to understand, which is that altcoins can achieve incredible performances. That's the truth. I have Injective where I called the bottom in 2023. Here at this level, I told you there's a magnificent pattern forming before all other cryptos, and then, well, the rest is history, it performed well. Now, don't start telling me "Yeah, but you see, we're back to the same price." Yeah, but at some point, you have to take profits. If a person doesn't take profits after a 30x, then there's a problem. We have Injective, we have Fetch, there are altcoins that had their rally. Even, for example, cryptos like Link, which didn't have a big rally like those we saw before. If you have a good entry, for example, $5-$6, okay, you still make a good performance. So, altcoins can perform. That's a fact. It's up to you to have the right entries and exits because many say "Oh yeah, I'm stuck on altcoins," and if you tell me you entered here, well, it's normal that you're stuck on your altcoin. Look at your entry. Now, if you have professional entries, okay, if you've returned to break-even, then you have a profit-taking problem, not an entry problem. But there are altcoins after the hearing, there are altcoins that are catastrophic. Okay, here with EGLD. Well, even EGLD had its moment of glory at one point with its 3x. What I want you to understand is that for altcoins, there are two main things to watch. First, it will be young altcoins. The problem with young altcoins is that they have a lot of tokens to unlock because at the time of a project's launch, there will be a distribution of tokens, okay, among different stakeholders: private investors, the team, the foundation, the public, through airdrops, and so on. And we will see a unlocking that will generally happen either linearly over time, meaning after one year, two years, three years, etc., or in a step-like manner. Several types of unlocks, sometimes there will be large unlocks like this. Each has its token. The problem with this type of token is that in a bull market, there's no problem, they can perform. I have examples like Arbitrum, Arbitrum here, where we had a good bull market. Well, we had a good performance. I have Optimism. I've always preferred Optimism. It performed well. There was a good momentum. I'm thinking, for example, of Tia. Tia is the same; it had its moment of glory. We can see clearly here at listing, there was performance to be made. The problem is that when we are in a bull market, token unlocks, demand remains higher than supply, and it performs. However, when we have a bear market or a trend that is ongoing, as we have with BTC, some don't call it a bear market. In any case, a degradation, let's say, of the long-term trend. We will see altcoins like this that have a lot of tokens to unlock. So, it will be catastrophic. We see it clearly here with minus 95%. We will see Starknet, where well, their launch they completely messed up. The crypto did nothing, it's catastrophic. Uh, and many like that. Tokens that have a lot of tokens to unlock take a hit. Now, there's nothing wrong with owning these tokens in a bull market, but the problem for many is that you are in "I hold, I hold until death" mode. That is, I position myself on altcoins and I keep them for 5, 10, 15, 20 years. No, no, most altcoins, 99% of altcoins, are underperformed by BTC. You take BTC and you look at the performance against any altcoin, even strong altcoins like I said, Fetch had its moment of glory. Okay, Fetch divided by BTC. Okay, Fetch had its moment of glory, that's a fact, we see it clearly, it performed very well. Okay, it outperformed BTC for a period, except that now, it's being outperformed by BTC. So, if you are in the right direction at this level, there's nothing wrong with holding an altcoin for a few weeks, a few months, maybe even a year, no problem. However, if you buy and say "It goes into my portfolio and I keep it for 10-15 years," you might as well invest in BTC, and then you'll make a big mistake. So, as I said, two things: 1. Young altcoins that have a lot of tokens to unlock. They can perform, but be wary in a bear market, they are the ones that will be hit the hardest. And then, you must especially get out of this mentality of saying "I invested in an altcoin, I'll keep it until death." Okay? I don't have altcoins like that, except currently Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid is really the only one where I say there's something to do. I think at some point BTC will outperform it because even altcoins that have their moment of glory, BTC has outperformed them in any case at some point, but Hyperliquid for now is a strong crypto, but you do the test, take any crypto, even Solana, which performed very well, okay, you see it clearly, and well, be careful, potentially this is a trend that will be bearish in the long term. In fact, it's mainly about getting out of this mindset of saying on total altcoin 3 here, of saying "Yeah, I'm going to make my 20x, my 100x." If you say "I'm going to make my 20x, my 100x," you must do it in 6 months, a year. Okay? Then you need to be on cryptos like Fetch, etc. But if you say "I'm going to make my 20x, my 100x in 5-10 years," no, because you might as well invest in BTC. BTC outperforms the majority of altcoins. That's a fact, that's how it is. Maybe in the future, it won't be the case. But I'll take the example, I had done, uh, uh, I had done a video like that a while ago, 2 or 3 years ago, I remember, and I still do it, and sorry if some people have it in their portfolio, it's a bit, it's a bit the crypto I like to pick on. Okay. Uh, why? Because it's a concrete case study, and it's a case where I was insulted at the time when here, at the break, I told you, I told you, those who position themselves on EOS or those who hope we'll go back to ATH, well, do a minimum of research. I don't want to, but you understand that it's bullshit. Okay, in the long term, it's totally ugly. Why? Because older altcoins, there can be exceptions, XRP for example, Cardano, but you take all the altcoins that experienced the 2017 cycle, it's catastrophic. EOS, Yot, all these cryptos, even LTC, it's dead, it's dead. LTC, LTC has been in a bear market against BTC since its creation. Oops, I don't have the full history, let's go look for crypto LTC USD divided by, crypto.com BTC USD. Well, you see since the creation of Bitcoin, very good, I'm putting it on monthly, even, 2013. Okay, we have here an LTC that is being outperformed by BTC. Now, there are altcoins, I understand, those who will tell me "Yes, but you know, I can do DeFi, I have airdrops, I have this." Okay, LTC, we do nothing with it. It's a copy of BTC, to put it simply. There are moments of glory, as I told you. You see, here it lasts 1, 2, 3, 4 months. Okay? Outperformance, that's a fact. Here it lasts 3 months. Here it lasts, there's a moment. But if you say "I own LTC and I keep it for 10 years," okay, but you accept that you are underperforming the market and you are underperforming BTC. Here, what I want to tell you is to be careful, those who are full altcoin, and I know many will promote this on social media saying "I have no problem, I have altcoins in my portfolio, I have some that have performed better than BTC, for example, I have Solana, I have Hyperliquid, okay, I have other cryptos that haven't performed better against BTC. I also have some. However, I have an exposure slider, and in my wallet, okay, I won't have 2% BTC and the rest altcoins. No, I have an exposure that will depend on the bull market, the bear market, my convictions, and so on. I always have exposure to altcoins because I don't want to be solely on BTC, but I am aware when I position myself on altcoins, I know very well that over 5-10 years, there's very little chance I'll outperform BTC. It's over short-term horizons. Okay? So, be wary of that. Okay, this might hurt what I'm saying. Some people might question themselves, others won't listen to me and will say "No, you're talking nonsense" or won't want to hear it because the person who has been aligned on altcoins for 3 years, changing strategy means accepting being wrong, and generally, ego, humans, well, we know how it goes. I'm not telling you to cash out all your altcoins because that's where tomorrow a new altcoin will launch, and they'll come after me. Okay, until proven otherwise, I hold it, well, it's not me proving it, it's BTC proving it, BTC is stronger than the majority of altcoins. Okay? So, be aware of that. When you invest in altcoins, there's nothing wrong, but you must be aware of this. Owning an altcoin for a while, no problem. Owning it for 10, 15, 20 years, for me, it's a mistake. Except, as I said, BTC, Ethereum, there's a lot to be said for having strong conviction in a crypto currently. For me, it's hype. Okay, I don't know how long it will last. Will it really outperform BTC? I have no idea. For me, it's hype, and I still see it performing. Now, outperforming BTC in dollar terms is a bit complicated as long as we don't have a real bottom established, but there's nothing wrong with having convictions on an altcoin. I'm not saying this now, there's a difference between saying "You know what, for me, it's Tao. I see Tao outperforming BTC." Here, I'm speaking, I'm taking the example of someone, it's not my case, but I'm taking the example of someone who tells me "Listen Nico, for me, Tao is a bit like your Hyperliquid, I see it outperforming BTC, it's very strong, very interesting." Okay, honestly, I own this crypto, I hold it, and I'll keep it for a long time because I have convictions. There's no problem, and I respect that. However, the person who tells me "Okay, I have 30 altcoins, all 30 altcoins will outperform BTC, I'll hold until death, and for 10 years, I won't buy BTC because I believe in these 30 altcoins," well, let's meet in 10-20 years and we'll see what happens. And I'm sure BTC will achieve better performance.
So, I've covered what I wanted to say on this. We will analyze the altcoins you ask to analyze tomorrow. Don't hesitate to put them in the comments. I especially wanted to do a big review of my mindset on altcoins. Share yours with me. Do you think there will ever be an altcoin season like in 2021? For me, unlikely. There will be altcoin seasons by narrative. So, like we had with artificial intelligence. But I remain cautious about that. I'm not a BTC maximalist, far from it. Okay? But you have to realize the reality of things. I'll leave you with this. For those who want to invest professionally in cryptocurrencies, you have €200 off the Crypto Investor program. I wish you a very good evening, and I'll see you tomorrow for another video. Bye bye.