Transcription
Hello everyone, good day. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review, we are going to prepare our week, and not just any week, we will have the interest rate decision, as well as Jerome Powell's speech. So, we will look at all of that in detail. We will see what to watch out for, to be wary of volatility. We will analyze Ethereum, and some altcoins. So, a review like every beginning of the week where we simply prepare another trading week.
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So yes, a week that will be very eventful. We are already seeing quite a bit of volatility this Monday. Okay. Where we see that we have reached the highs since Friday with this wick, we have also reached the lows. So we have a week where it will be eventful. Why? Because here we are approaching the interest rate decision, especially Jerome Powell's speech which will arrive in 2 days and 1 hour. So that happens on Wednesday. Okay. And depending on the rates, already depending on the rate cuts, will there be a rate cut? Will there be two rate cuts? That's already a first thing. What will be Jerome Powell's tone? All of that will create volatility. What you need to know is that the market is currently pricing in a 94% chance of rate cuts and a 6% chance of rate cuts. So the most probable, as I said, is that we will have a rate cut. Now, honestly, what we will really need to watch is Jerome Powell's speech. Why? Because for the end of the year, okay, we are expecting for the end of the year, so the next decisions on October 29th, December 10th. So, we expect at least three rate cuts for this end of the year. Potentially four if we continue to have interesting figures, and that will depend on what Jerome Powell says, will he reassure us? Will we have three rate cuts or not? That will depend on his behavior. For me, he's going to commit now. The period where he said "Yes, we are waiting for data. Yes, inflation is not too high. It's difficult to say." is over. For me, we are at the start of September, he will, in my opinion, create volatility depending on what he says, and especially it's often based on the questions he answers that it will create volatility. So we will have to see if he will be reassuring or not about these potential three rate cuts because currently the market is pricing in three rate cuts, or even four. If announcements come out or even if Powell is not reassuring, we could reprice and have a repricing and price in, for example, only two rate cuts, which would be really bearish for the market. So that's on Wednesday, that's why we have a very busy week. Honestly, we'll have to be ready. Be careful, as I said, about volatility. I will be very wary of that. I will mainly do intraday trading this week and not have positions that last too long with stops that are not particularly tight, and I will be wary of liquidity zones that we might go and seek. So we will prepare our week, we will look at the different levels as usual. What I like to do at the beginning of the week is always to watch the weekly pivot points, the new ones that are created, quite simply. It's the work we do together every week. It simply allows us to have a good visualization of the important levels.
So, this week's weekly pivot points are $114,170. We have $111,728 here, and then we have $117,730. And I remind you, the monthly pivot points, we have one at $113,000 and one at $119,000. After that, the low is here at $102,000. So, this simply allows us to have localization zones and good zones in case we go there to potentially look for longs or shorts depending on whether we are above or below. I remind you, it's an indicator that you can add. Here, you have the Vegas tunnels as well as the pivot points that you can simply add to your chart. So, these are levels that can be interesting to watch this week if we reach them.
Now, BTC, as we saw when it reintegrated this resistance level which now acts as support, we had a high chance of reaching the next extremity, the next resistance zone that we reached here at $116,500 to $117,000, where we are currently forming a top. We see a small selling reaction with a sort of range here that we are trying to break downwards. However, we are still in a good localization zone, given that we are at the level of the 1-hour tunnel. But if we lose this tunnel, there will be a high chance of returning to the opposite extremity. In any case, a week where there will be volatility, this is where, in my opinion, you need to do the work of being present in front of the charts. Not necessarily to trade, but for those who are starting, to record data. Your brain works like that in the markets. The more data you record, meaning, how does the market behave when there are economic announcements, how does the market behave when there is repricing of certain announcements, when there are changes, in short, no matter what, every time there is data, your brain must record this data, and the more data it records, the more experience you will gain and the more comfortable you will be in the markets. So, this is a week that is very important for me, especially for acquiring data. So, this is something very important, to see how the market will behave. Of course, there will be volatility, there will be setups that can be executed. I will take trades potentially if, of course, things are triggered. But it's especially even if I don't have any trades triggered. I will still be in front of the charts, unlike sometimes when I don't have a setup triggered, I don't specifically stay in front of my chart thinking "Oh, I'll look here, I'll look even if I don't have a setup triggered because it's a very important week and it will be truly decisive for what follows."
So, what is probable is that we will continue to have quite a bit of volatility, and where we will need to be cautious is on Wednesday. Often, days like this where we are expecting a major announcement, something very impactful, it's possible that the market will slow down in terms of volatility. Because investors, traders do not want to position themselves since an announcement is coming. So, we have, how to say, lower volatility, and that can create levels where there are stops to be taken, highs, lows, etc. And very often when we have this kind of phase, it very often happens that we go to one side to go back to the other. We are quickly on a 5-minute, 15-minute candle. For example, I'm thinking of this at this level. We see at the time here, I think there were announcements at that time on Thursday, September 11th, I don't remember what we had. Maybe it was the PCE, I don't remember exactly what happened, but you see this kind of wick. We go for the highs. Here, we take all the stops, and we also go for the lows. And that's a candle we could have to take liquidity from both sides. And there can be setups that are executed in this case when we have liquidity hunts. You see that we have this kind of capture, hop, and a close in the red. These are quite bearish signals. It's classic. Why? Because above these highs, we have stop losses. The fact that we execute stop losses, these are short stop losses. It's market buy. The fact of not having a short squeeze, meaning that on the other side, we have counterparties, okay, that we have a selling reaction, we have sellers simply who manifest themselves. So, yes, we will really have to watch that this week.
After that, for me, BTC remains encouraging, and we don't want to see BTC go back below $112,000. Which can happen very quickly if we start to have really bad announcements. Or especially a speech from Jerome Powell that is really not reassuring, the market can strongly pump or dump in both directions. So, we have to be ready. We are really in a phase where it's difficult to say "Yes, Powell will say this, and therefore the market will pump" or "Powell will say this, and therefore the market will dump." Why? Because we cannot have pricing like, for example, what we have here on the rates. The market prices that. That is to say, it is recorded in the prices. However, we cannot price in a speech from Jerome Powell, it's not possible. We don't know what he will say. The questions we will ask him, we cannot know them in advance. We cannot know his answers. So, it's impossible to price in, and that's why these are phases where there is enormous volatility. When Trump speaks and says things, when there is a war, when there are announcements like that that come out that are not foreseen, that are not priced in, that's when volatility is the most important. And that's why we are in a week where the most important thing is to have a plan, okay, that will be adapted to your profile. That's an important point. You have your profile, you have your plan, and it must be absolutely adapted. Why? Because if you follow someone else's plan, and the market goes against that plan, it will be very difficult mentally to stick to it because it's not your plan, it's not adapted to you. And you will have trouble sticking to it. It's like when you invest in cryptocurrencies, there's nothing worse than investing in a crypto where you have no conviction. And often, if you invest in a crypto that someone advised you to, you don't have convictions in it because it's not the result of your work, your analysis, it's someone else's analysis, and often that's where you will panic the most.
So, for BTC, at least, from a technical point of view, I ignore what will happen this week, I remain bullish. Okay? As long as we hold this level and we don't have a re-entry and we don't go back below $110,000, around $100, yes, roughly, I have no reason to panic, I have no reason to become bearish because for me, as I told you, the big resistance before the ATH is this level of $117,000. Okay? We have chances of rejection. If we reject, we can go back to the lower extremity to leave again. I remind you, we have formed a beautiful bottom with this inverse head and shoulders. If we pull back, as I said, it can be a good zone to look for longs to revisit at least $117,000, or even the ATH. Now, if we start to settle below and we start to do this, then I will be very cautious for what follows because we could mark a bigger top and then reintegrate and go back to at least $100,000. So, yes, a very important week. As I said, be in front of the screens. Just have this curiosity to say "Okay, I'm not anticipating what will happen, I'm just observing, seeing how the market reacts based on these announcements." That way, I'll do this next time, and I'll do it again next time, and so in 3, 4, 5 years I'll be much more comfortable to potentially trade this kind of phase. I always advise against trading the news because it's very difficult, and it's a type of trading that doesn't interest me. There are many types of trading. There are a lot. The most important thing is to be consistent with the type of trading that is proper to us, that is simply adapted to our psychology and our profile. Trading the news doesn't particularly interest me, but for some it might. So, that's why, as I said, be in front of the screens.
So, on that note for BTC, as I said, we remain in an upward trend, at least in the medium term, as long as we hold this level. And in the long term, we also remain in a long-term trend. I wanted to talk about this again last time, I completely forgot if it will load. Yes, okay, perfect. We are approaching the October-November 2025 period. Historically, we have always formed tops around this period in bull cycles. We see the 2017 top, it's in December. The 2014 top is in December, November-December each time. And the 2021 top is November-December. So, we see that historically, approximately every 4 years, we form a top around this period, 2021, 2025. So, it's not to scare you. We are a bit in a phase where we can say this cycle is different. That's something I hear. Why? Because we are not just in a pump and dump. We made an ATH before the halving, which is a first. We have the arrival of institutions. Is it different? Maybe, but maybe not either. And when we look at it, there are important points to consider, which is that every time we have a halving, we often form the top 17 months later. That was the case here. That was also the case here. Well, if that's the case, it gives us a top around September 2025. Now, be careful, this chart is no longer up to date. It no longer provides data. I would need to transfer this chart from a while ago, onto another chart. But it bothers me because not all charts have as much price history since 2011 for BTC. But yes, the price is no longer evolving. Well, in any case, since we are on a monthly basis, it's not impactful for the moment. It will be in 2 or 3 months. So, yes, September, October, we could have a top. Similarly, between the bottom and the top, we often have 35 bars. 35 months, we see it here, I think that's it. 35 months, 1065 days. You see? Bottom, top. Exactly 1066 days. Here, bottom, top, 1065 days. Bottom, top, 1065 days. If we project similarly, it gives us around October. So, we are entering a phase where we will have to see how the market reacts. Honestly, for the moment, I remain bullish. Okay, I remain bullish. I'm not panicking. However, if I start to see bad signals, in addition to the timing, we are in a phase where we often form tops, then I will be wary and perhaps reduce my exposure. Which is not the case currently.
So, I prefer to tell you a bit what I think, and something I take into account is the timing. It's an important point. But I don't rely on that alone. Of course, I always have a technical basis that allows me to have confirmations of reversals or not. So, on that note for BTC.
Regarding Ethereum, for the moment, it is pulling back at the $4,500 level. I don't see anything alarming. For the moment, we are returning to a good localization zone to potentially look for longs. Okay? Because Ethereum is very simple. It has been in a large sideways phase for about a month. Already, if we zoom out, it has been in a large range in the long term for 4-5 years. Okay? Since 2021, it has been ranging, it is close to its upper extremity. Already, this is a zone where, in the long term, it's impossible to position yourself. Here, I ignore the chart, I tell myself "Okay, I'm not on Ethereum, I'm not going to get biased because it's true that I have an affection for it, which is a very good project, but if I remove that, I'm just talking from a technical point of view, we are at an upper extremity." That's a fact, we are at the top of a range. Does a professional trader or investor position themselves as a buyer at the top of a range? We always position ourselves at the lower extremity, okay? Because that's how you trade a range. At the lower extremity, we look for longs, at the upper extremity, we look for shorts or at least reduce our exposure. I would not short Ethereum here. However, I could potentially reduce my exposure, take a first TP1 for those who haven't done so and are already positioned at a lower extremity.
Now, if I zoom out, it's the same, we have been in a range here for a while, about a month. I draw the range more or less like this on my end. We have been in a range for a month, we are returning to the upper extremity, we reject, and we have more or less the middle of the range here which has formed this reversal pattern on a 4-hour tunnel. Okay. On a monthly pivot point as well, from memory. Yes. Which is here, where I drew my line just above. But we have a monthly pivot point at this level. So, we have formed a bottom. How do I know we have formed a bottom? Simply because we had a sideways phase at this level, a large reversal pattern that was realized. We broke it, and now we are retesting this level. We are in a very good localization zone to currently look for longs, support level, 1-hour tunnel. We also have new weekly pivot points as I said that are created. Hop, we went back below it. We broke it, $4,547. We have a weekly pivot point here at $4,330 and one close to the ATH at $4,820. In any case, on Ethereum, I remain bullish. My condition for a long time was to break this level. We saw quite a few upper wicks. That showed us that there were quite a few sellers defending this level. The fact of breaking here and pulling back, this is a level that has a high chance of acting as support. Why? Because all the sellers who shorted here are currently stuck. The fact of returning to retest their entry price means potentially shorts closing their positions. Okay? And we can have here, that's how we flip resistance zones into support and have a buying reaction. In any case, on Ethereum, I remain bullish, and I would start to be wary if we start to have a daily close below $4,440. Globally, if we go back below this level, and we have acceptance, then it would be bad. Yes. And we would have a high chance of returning to these lows. So, on Ethereum, I remain optimistic. The most realistic scenario is to make a new ATH and have acceptance. Okay. Now, in any case, it's not because I say that we have a higher chance of making a new ATH again that I start to go long. The biggest work was done on Ethereum in this zone, at this level, and also in this zone. Okay? I took my profits on the rise, I even lightened a part here because we were in a good localization zone. Here, we are also in a good zone to lighten up, and I will of course continue to lighten up if we start to make a new ATH and go higher. The difference is that I am much more serene on Ethereum because when you have an entry price of $1,500, okay, you are more serene than the person who has an entry price of $4,500. Because if we do this, then for that person, it's mentally more difficult to manage a position than for me, who is always on a potential x2 or even x3. So, yes, on Ethereum, as I said, I remain bullish. However, on daily, I don't want to have here, I don't want to lose this, I don't want to lose this, reintegrate this level. Globally on Ethereum, if I have to give an opinion, in the medium term, we would have an inversion of our dynamic if we start to lose and settle below $4,400. Okay, that wouldn't be good. Even if we were in the 4-hour tunnel, we would be reintegrating a fairly significant range. If you want to be broad, you take $4,300 to be really sure. And in the long term, what I really wouldn't want is to go below this level. Because if we go below this level, then it's a reversal pattern. Okay. M structure, reintegration of this level. For me, it's, yes. Deviation at the range level. Liquidity grab, top pattern. Yes, it's bad. And I think for the next 6 months, we're going to be bored on Ethereum.
Well, in any case, generally, I prefer not to anticipate that, even though it's often what happens when we have reintegrations of major levels. You see that we have major levels like this that reintegrate. Bam, we leave, and we lose, we lose a significant level. Even if we lose this level, even if it's a bottom, it still takes time to recover. 3, 6, 8, it takes, yes, it takes about 3 months to go back up. So, yes, Ethereum, I remain bullish. Still moving averages oriented upwards in the medium to long term, but I remain cautious for what's next. And as I said, we have a rather busy week.
So, regarding altcoins, well, we have cryptocurrencies that are correcting quite a bit. Okay, we saw on Total 3, I remind you, what is Total 3? It's the total market cap of altcoins excluding BTC and Ethereum. So, we filter out the two giants, we remove them, okay, which allows us to have a chart that is a bit more readable for altcoins because if we include BTC and Ethereum, it gives us this. Okay? So, we see that there is a big difference and that this chart globally resembles that of BTC. If we put Total 2, it's already a bit more representative, but here for altcoins, I prefer to put Total 3. And well, we are at resistance, okay? That's a fact, we are close to the ATH, we made a new ATH at this level. I don't know if we made a new ATH again, but globally, we can say we are at ATH, except that we are at a resistance level. And I remind you, I am always wary of resistance levels like this because if we reject and form a top, it wouldn't be good for altcoins. However, honestly, if we break, we can have altcoins that have fun, and we can have a good decrease in Bitcoin dominance. Here, I show you Bitcoin dominance, we are still decreasing. Okay? It's true that usually Bitcoin dominance decreases more quickly. And well, in any case, we already have a first mini altcoin season, that's a fact. The fact of going from 65% to 57%, we have seen altcoins that have performed very well. Okay. Yes, we haven't had x10 x15 like in 2021, that's a fact, but we have still had altcoins that have performed very well, and if Total 3 starts to break this resistance zone, it would be very good for what follows, and we would have a high chance of having an altcoin season. That's a fact. However, I don't think we will have an altcoin season for all altcoins. We will have to choose the best altcoins. There are cryptocurrencies that will not recover, you see. Well, Bitcoin Cash. Yes, again. Well, it's not the best example because even if it performed well, historically, for me, it won't make a new ATH. There are cryptocurrencies that don't do much. ETC is bad, and I don't think it's a cryptocurrency that will do x10 if we have an altcoin season. For me, you have to position yourself on projects that have already shown that they have potential. I'm thinking of Hyperliquid, I'm thinking of Ave, that kind of project. Even Tao, it's not bad, even if it's slow at the moment. So, I'm thinking of these kinds of cryptocurrencies that clearly have potential and especially from a fundamental point of view have an interest, okay? Have buyers who are there, okay? And regardless of whether a project is interesting from a fundamental point of view, even in difficult periods, there will always be buyers, there will always be interest. But when we talk about projects that no longer have much interest, like for example ETC, then it's much more complicated. Okay? Yes, even LTC, it's not great. So, for me, we will mainly have altcoin seasons, let's say, by sector or by cryptocurrency. And I don't think all cryptocurrencies will perform. So, this is where we are in a phase where you should choose the strongest cryptocurrencies. Choose the cryptocurrencies that have shown that they are resilient. See Chainlink, it's pretty good. Solana is very good. BNB is not bad. Even if we are at ATH, to continue the trend, it's very, very interesting. As I said, we have Hyperliquid, we have Ave, these kinds of cryptocurrencies that for me are strong cryptocurrencies and have a higher chance of continuing to be strong. It will be about positioning yourself on 40,000 cryptocurrencies, choosing, you understand me, 35, roughly, to start. For someone who is starting, frankly, 35 cryptocurrencies is enough. Someone with a bit more experience can go up to 10-12, it's useless to have 40 cryptocurrencies. I already had a phase where I had a lot of cryptocurrencies. It didn't help me much.
I'll do a quick analysis of BNB because it was requested, and then we'll look at the US market and stop there. So, BNB is at ATH, ATH, in the greatest calm. Total silence. Okay, it's doing its thing. We are still talking about a cryptocurrency with a high capitalization. So, yes, we have gone from a low of $200 to close to $1000. We are not far from a x5. So, it's performing very well. Okay. BNB, I don't want to say it's surprising, but it's a cryptocurrency that stands out, and that's where, as a trader, we shouldn't necessarily ask ourselves why this cryptocurrency stands out. We should rather ask ourselves what do I do? Because if we start to search for three weeks why this cryptocurrency stands out, it's often too late, we form a top, hop, finished, and in the end, we arrive too late. No, our goal is not to ask why it's going up, but to ask what can I do now. And you see that we have moving averages oriented upwards. Well, for intraday trading, you see the 15-minute tunnel, it's very interesting. And what do we do? We pull back once, twice, three times, four times here, five times. Then, we break it at some point. We break it to go and seek the 1-hour tunnel. Potentially, we will form a bottom here and leave again. But globally, what I want you to understand is that this kind of cryptocurrency is very interesting for continuing the trend. Okay? We take moving averages, okay? We don't draw them, they are automatically placed, we wait for pullbacks, and when we have pullbacks, we watch for a buying reaction to position ourselves. However, for me, it's a very bullish cryptocurrency, and a long-term invalidation for those who might ask would be not good to go back below $750, that's a fact. Even going back below $850 would not be good, I think this last level. And if we also form a top pattern like this, it would not be good. But for now, we will have time to talk about it again. We are very bullish on BNB, and we have a higher chance of continuing.
The US market, which is doing quite well today, continues ATH after ATH, and that's good. The fact that the stock market is pumping gives us a higher chance of cryptocurrencies following, generally there is a significant correlation all the time, the proof again today, but yes, the S&P is going to seek its extension, we saw it together between the 118, 100% extension. But similarly, the S&P 500 is the same with the decision of Powell, or rather Powell's speech and everything surrounding it, it will have a big impact, and we will have to watch what happens on the S&P 500. To see if there is also a correlation between what the S&P 500 will do following Powell's announcements and the crypto market. All of that will be interesting to take into account.
However, for me, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, are still in an upward trend, still in an upward dynamic, ATH after ATH, we set moving averages and we aim for trend continuation. I'll leave you with that. I wish you a very good evening. I remind you, if you want to take advantage of the contest, don't hesitate to join the Discord by clicking on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.