Transcription
Here's a stat for you, which is so painful, but it's true. New York City first-time entrance into the job force. Only 1 in 10 make a living wage. That's how hard it is out there for most people. This is going to be the political issue. It's making less and less sense that on the other side, we have a world where trillions are kind of giggled at. I'm worried, Michael, because your parents, my parents, there was like a bedrock of governmental assistance that helps you get into the middle class. And if you look at these current legislation, it has eroded those programs. So, I can give you an example. Even the tax deduction on a mortgage, New York City, forget about it. That's not even enough to help you. Moreover, if you look at SNAP benefits, the SNAP benefits are the same in Idaho and in Iowa and in, you know, Oregon like they are in New York. Is the affordability the same in both those places? Well, you got 1.2 million people in the city, and I'm probably low on that, that are food insecure.
Mike, welcome to All Things Markets. I am Anthony Scaramucci. >> And I'm Mike Noratz. >> All right, Mike. In today's episode, it's 9:30 Eastern Standard Time, Friday, June 19th. Happy Juneteenth, everybody. Okay, on this episode, we're going to discuss Trump's peace deal, uh, situation with Iran and what happened in Versailles, what it means to markets, our friend Karen Worsh and the interest rate decisions, uh, as it related to the Fed restructuring plan, and then, of course, we're going to mention the fact that AI CEOs were in the G7. They were in Evian. I thought that was a bottle of water, but it turns out it's a real place in France, Michael. Okay. Bernie Sanders makes his formal AI tax proposal, something you and I talked about last week, which is concomitant with the rise of socialism in the United States. Uh, and last but not least, Elon Musk and XAI purchasing Cursor and what does that mean for perpetual futures and what's next for Bitcoin?
So, I want to start with Iran. So, Michael, what do you think is going on there? And and tell me how you think that's going to impact markets or markets just pricing in the chaos. >> Yeah. No, I think listen, Trump's made it really clear, uh, he wants out, right? And so, he's willing to take a political hit. Even if he'll try to spin it, that's a win, right? Let's pay to get out and let's We're going to piss off Israel a little bit. That's okay. We're getting out because I've got an election midterms in November and nobody likes this war. And so that's the calculus he's making and the markets like that calculus. He's going to get tortured by the Democrats for having surrendered, for having spent $300 billion when, you know, he gave Obama a lot of hell for spending two billion, uh, for the same deal. But he made the calculus that that's worth it. And so I think from a market perspective, this is a good. It's not going to be a straight line. You already saw this morning the Iranians sort of didn't show up in Switzerland and Vance turned his plane around. Uh, and so they got 60 days to actually negotiate the deal and so there'll be some two and fro. But he made it really clear we're out. And so I think from that that part markets have mostly priced most of that in, right? Big rally in equity markets, crude markets down in the mid-70s. Um, and I think that's probably the the course of direction.
>> I'll tell you what I'm worried about and I want your reaction to it. But what what I'm worried about is the energy resource depletion and the toggling off, toggling on of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Uh, I think bad for the Iranians though, the Gulf States are going to have to figure out a way to get oil out of the area, not going through the Strait. I think that's obvious. But for right now, are you not worried that we could be sitting here in November, uh, with SPR depletion, European SPR depletion, and oil prices up way higher than any of us would want as market participants or people that have to spend money on gas?
>> You know, I think people have been surprised at how many other sources of energy there are, at how the there are huge amounts of reserves and yes, they're being depleted. Uh, but people were calling for $150 dollar oil in the middle of that war and it never really got over 110 and it didn't stay there very long. And so I think, you know, supply finds demand, they're going to get shuff stuff through the Strait. Listen, if we go to all-out closing the Strait again, yeah, that would be worrisome. I just don't see that happening. Both sides have have, uh, incentive to actually have oil prices lower, to have the Strait reopen. Iranians need to start exporting. Um, and the US just, I mean, Trump just wants out. Uh, you know, you could call it the greatest taco of a long time, but he's just he wants out.
>> I mean, I mean, they're serving chicken tacos at Versailles though. I mean, do you think Trump understood the historical significance of signing deals at Versailles?
>> I don't. I don't. And I, you know, it's so interesting. He has got a a grandiosity that he just doesn't care. I mean, the stuff he said about Prime Minister Maloney, right? Oh, she begged me for a picture and whatnot and then she comes out and says that's that's not true at all. Like, these are two leaders of G7 countries accusing each other of lying. Uh, I know who I'm going to believe. Uh, but he knows she's going to say something and he just doesn't care. He's playing the TV.
>> You are you are such a dear friend and you're such a great guy. I'm not going to ask you on this show which one of those two leaders you believe. How about that, Mike? How much do I love you? Huh? How much do I love? Let's go to Kevin.
>> We're keeping this non-political.
>> Yes. Exactly. I'm I'm not going to tell you who I >> I'm saying I'm saying from a market perspective, the war is over.
>> Okay, fair enough. All right, let's hope and let's pray and I want lower gas prices for us and all the American consumers. Let's go to Kevin Walsh for a second. The clear signal from Kevin, I thought was the next move is likely a hike rather than a cut. It's a little bit of a reversal from what the where the committee stood just two months ago. And I was surprised by that because I thought, man, he's gonna probably at least cut once or twice ceremonially to stay on the good side of Donald Trump, but it feels like he's like, "Hey, man, we're going to have shorter, simpler statements. We're going to, uh, have a shorter, simpler policy initiative." What do you think?
>> You know, I I think his pre his press conference, uh, and I'll I'll I'll quote a friend of mine, was a masterclass in establishing leadership, establishing his dominance, establishing integrity. Uh, and now he's going to have to follow through. Uh, it was hawkish. Uh, it wasn't dovish. Uh, and if you see, you know, even Trump said, well, he might hike, you know, like I think that's coordinated with Besset to Trump not to say anything like, and I think he wants to establish his integrity and the Fed's integrity. Uh, and the facts have changed a lot since when he was talking to Trump six months ago to get the job. And you know, at that point, you could have probably cut rates. At this point, you can't. We're going to get a bad inflation number next month. And so I don't think he hikes, but he might. But he might. I no longer. Uh, and so that's bad for gold, right? You look at the gold price, it's under the 200-day moving average. Gold, which was, you know, a darling of, oh no, we're going to have dovish dovish policy everywhere, is is heading lower, saying, hey, we're going to trust Kevin Worsh. Bitcoin is not trading well. Same thing. Now, in the long run, the Fed governor can only do so much. It really is Congress and the Treasury. If they're going to keep spending money at infinitum, you're going to debase the dollar. You're going to have inflation. And I don't know if Kevin, you know, we're not in a position, and I think what he believes is this AI productivity miracle is coming. And so if we get bailed out of $40 trillion of debt, it's going to be because we have this productivity miracle. Uh, that's it. That's the only hope. And so I think Kevin probably believes that's coming.
>> So, so Mike, long ago at a Hoover Institute event, I actually think it was at a fancy restaurant in in New York City, they did this big event and Kevin came up and he gave a big speech about shrinking the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and he was a big proponent of this and this is obviously at the time when we were in this very big quantitative easing policy and expanding the balance sheet. Uh, but we have a large balance sheet right now at the Fed and I'm just wondering, do you think he's still inclined to do that? And do you think that's why there is a a sentiment against some of the debasement trades as a result of what he's saying or the or the way at least he started?
>> Mike, >> Every single Fed governor, every single prudent financial steward should want to shrink that balance sheet. Um, but that's like a tightening. And so he might get his tightening not by moving rates but by doing balance sheet works. I don't think they will. Uh, and you know, I think he's going to be pretty careful. Uh, you know, he didn't say anything about employment because employment seems fine so far, but we're got to watch that carefully, right? Because the intuition of most macro thinkers is that AI is going to start really eating into the knowledge-based economy employment. So far, the only place you really see AI having a difference is in young workers, young college grads not getting jobs because it's easier to hire someone with intuition and experience and give them agents than to hire someone young without intuition and experience. And so that you can actually see in the numbers. Nowhere else it's happened yet though. Uh, and I think once that starts coming through the pipe, uh, it's a big deal.
>> All right. I think it's well said. Okay. I want you to channel Mr. Worsh now. I want you to channel him. I'm going to read something and then I want you to say, "Okay, this is what I think Mr. Worsh is thinking." Okay, you ready?
>> Yep.
>> This is from President Trump. He had this to say about Kevin's statement. It's just hard to believe. It just keeps the country down. It's so unusual. But we have a very good guy over there now. So, I'm guided by what he wants.
>> It's hard to believe. It just keeps the country down, you know. So, it's so unusual, but we have a very good guy over there now. So, I'm guided by what he wants to do.
>> This is the journalist now obviously goading him, saying, "Hey, the guy looks like he's going to be raising rates." So, go ahead. What would Kevin be thinking?
>> I I think Kevin's thinking that's the best I'm going to get and I'll take that as a win. Right. I think that was probably coordinated with Scott Bessant. Right. Scott, I got a hard job to do. You're the Trump whisperer. The best we got. Uh, you know, keep on my side. You don't want to start a fight the first week we're we're in office.
>> Before we go to the next topic though, I'm just going to stipulate that Kevin does not want his picture taken with Trump. So, if Trump says he does, okay, I think Trump will be the guy lying in that situation. Mike, I don't even care. All right, let's go to let's go to AI. Okay, AI, we got, you know, I, you know, listen, I I love these glimpses because, you know, I'm a little bit of a a people watching voyeur, you know, I saw Calun mingling. I saw MBA, of course. Calun is the head of Ubatila for the UAE. Uh, I saw Dario from Anthropic. You saw Sam Alman. I mean, there's a lot of people in the arena alongside of the G7 leaders. You know, Steve Schwarzman was there, Jamie Diamond, etc. So let's go to Dario and Anthropic for a second, uh, and your thoughts on what is going on with Anthropic and also, uh, where he called at G7 for structured access to frontier models. He wants more chip trade controls, although he said he wanted to exclude China from them. Uh, what are your thoughts on all of that?
So, listen, I think we're at a really fascinating moment in AI, right? I don't know if you played with the new model that came out, uh, that was out for 48 hours until they shut it down. Uh, I just loaded it and got shut down, but all my peeps that were ahead of me were like, "Oh my god, is it good?" And we've shut it down as a government at this point. And I think there's this tension between how fast Anthropic and the rest of AI are developing and our ability, both in the financial markets to to to keep our stuff safe and from a national security position. And so on the one hand, the government has a has an instinct and probably a good instinct to slow things down, which we've done. On the other hand, we're about this is from talking to some of these guys from Anthropic and others, six to 12 months ahead of China. And there is a feeling of existential, you know, this existential moment. We need to stay ahead of China in AI. That's from the Democrats, that's from the Republicans, that's from the national security apparatus, you know, when you talk to our intelligence people. And so they can't slow it down too much, right? You know, people will catch up to to Anthropic pretty soon. Everyone else is developing. And so there's this, I think I think that Fable, Fable is the name of that, uh, the next Anthropic, uh, upgrade. That's probably midsummer, it's turned back on, uh, if even earlier than that. Like, I just don't think you can keep these things shut off that long. And I think what's going to happen, and you're starting to see it happen from the fat, the fourth-thinking AI companies is they're working with government to try to give them the tools. You know, I mean, they have to actually build the offense and the defense at the same time. Uh, and they realize, and I don't know how this ends. It might end poorly, but, you know, the stuff is just getting better at an exponential pace. I was out with one of the co-founders of one of the big LLMs, uh, just two days ago and he said, we're now really thinking early '28 where we get recursive, you know, AI models that can create their own AI models. And that's just like a that was such a sci-fi idea five years ago and now we're 18 months from it. And and so I think this is one of the most complicated policy positions. Yes, Fzakaria came up with an idea today. He said, "We can't do stop and start. We almost need a Federal Reserve for AI policy, like have a committee of some of the smartest people that help set AI policy so it doesn't lurch like this to try to keep score." Uh, I'm not sure if that's a great idea or not, but there's a lot of thought on what we need to do because it's a moment where the acceleration is happening. Uh, anyway, that's, you know, I at this at this lunch I was at, every CEO is trying to figure out how their company, uh, can use AI. And the real, the real tension point is you don't want to open up all your your cupboards for other people to just jump in, both information or or or coins if it's crypto or and so how do you, how do you limit access, but actually you want to give access. And so, you know, Anthropic has a whole consulting wing that does that. There's a whole bunch of firms, a whole cottage industry of consulting firms that will come work with your company to figure out how you can get AI into into productive hands. I think we're not even at the first out of the first inning of corporate use.
>> Yeah. You know, I was I was in con, uh, for an event. Uh, Graden Carter, one of my dear friends, had a a dinner party at the Hotel Dukab and he was sponsored, was presenting Claude there and there were a lot of their marketing people there in addition to some of their business engineers, etc. Uh, and I I will tell you, Mike, there's going to be differentiation. Has to be some. In other words, they're not all, if they stay doing what they're doing, to your point, they're all, it's going to become a commodity AI. They're all going to look roughly alike. So, I'm I'm I'm predicting that they'll take different segments, all their act different ways or present themselves differently as brands to the consumer and to companies and to government. Well, we we'll have to see if that unfolds as well. But I want to go to Bernie Sanders for a second because we talked about this last week and guess what? He has put out a formal plan. Now, Mike, okay, he wants the US government to take a 50% equity stake in every major AI company. And you know, Trump and Sanders are very similar on this, right? They like they like government, right? Okay. He wants to funnel dividends directly to the Americans. Okay. And this plan applies, in his mind, to any company with $200 million in annual AI revenue. So I guess that would include companies like Google, right? Because they have $200 million in AI revenue. Uh, stakes would go into a new US sovereign wealth fund paying a 5% annual dividend to Americans. So I mean, I don't know. I feel like when I'm reading that, I need like Xanax, but go ahead. What do you think of that?
>> Populism sells and you know Bernie's a populist on the left and Trump's a populist on the right. I don't think it gets there. You know, like we just, you got to be very careful before you just start expropriating, uh, other people's money, you know, and that's a complete expropriation. Uh, should we figure out a way to tax AI, tax tax the supply chain, tax the output, tax agents? There's a lot of thought that needs to be put behind that. If AI really does disrupt so many jobs, you're going to have to replace that tax revenue somewhere. I don't think expropriating is actually an American ideal. Listen, Trump's done it. He's, you know, but even like with Intel, you could make a logical argument that the last administration had given Intel such a stupidly good job deal that we deserve something in return. And I don't think anybody would say, "Yeah, you're wrong on that." Uh, and and so I think it's this is a different scenario like Google, you know, people invested in Google, every pension fund's in Google, you're going to go take half of Google? No. Uh, and so sounds good, not going to happen, but something's going to happen. And data center politics, AI politics is going to be on on the plate, right, in in '26, and it's going to be the main course in in '28.
>> Well, I mean, this is the thing that you have to be a little bit alarmed by. I mean, I guess we're getting old, but I mean, 67% of the college students view socialism neutrally or positively. Is that a generational blip? Is that genuine realignment? Have we done something where you at least on social media have have and have-nots, etc. I think we we we can get blue in the face talking about the inequality gap. We have a trillionaire out there right now. Uh, we have, you know, hundreds of new millionaires printed in this SpaceX. Hundreds of new billionaires. I think there's going to be someone told me there's going to be 25 billionaires printed in the Anthropic, uh, in the Anthropic deal alone. And so in a world where those numbers get ticked around like they're normal, and you still have, here's a stat for you, which is so painful, uh, but it's true. New York City first-time entrants into the job force. So that's about 53% of our kids don't go to college. This is public school kids, right? So call it 53,000, you know, new high school grads joining the workforce. And then it's the college and the junior college and the associate degree grads. So first year into the the workforce, only one in 10 make a living wage. And we define a living wage in New York as roughly $30 an hour, which is $45,000, $50,000 a year. I'm telling you, you can't live on $50,000 a year in New York. And so, it's not even a living wage. And only one out of 10 make it. Like, that's how hard it is out there for most people. Uh, that's why everyone's living at home until they're 30 years old. Like, it's so tough for most people. This is going to be the political issue. It just, it's making less and less sense that on the other side, we have a world where, you know, trillions are are kind of giggled at and, you know, someone said, hey, 10B is the old is the old 1B, you know, even even that a B is kicked around like something kind of cheeky. That's such an unfathomable amount of money for most Americans. It's and guys like Mandami are like meeting that moment, uh, in a brilliant way in terms of just saying, no, this doesn't make sense anymore. And so finding the solutions that actually don't sink us is is really the challenge of our generation. And you got to have more and more thought at that because we don't, we're going to sink because pure socialism, we're going to sink. We all know that. We've all studied. But unbridled capitalism, the way we're actually doing it right now, uh, is also going to break the country. I'm I'm worried, Michael, because you you your your parents, my parents, there was like a bedrock of governmental assistance that helps you get into the middle class. And if you look at these current legislation, it has eroded those programs. I can give you an example. Even the tax deduction on a mortgage, uh, New York City, forget about it. You that's not even enough to help you, you know. Moreover, if you look at SNAP benefits, the SNAP benefits are the same in Idaho and in Iowa and in, you know, Oregon like they are in New York. Is the affordability the same in both those places? So, you've got one, you got 1.2 million people in the city, and I'm probably low on that, that are food insecure.
>> Mike, >> More in New York City. Yeah. It's got it's got to be more. >> 25 people in 25% of the city is under the poverty line. And that's up from 21% just four years ago. Um, and so I I think we're in a we're in a hard place. Inflation has eroded lots of that safety net. Exactly what you're saying, right? And so we got to have to kind of readjust things and it's hard to do. Like people would shoot me if I said, "Hey, the minimum wage in New York needs to be at least $50 an hour." It does because you can't live on less than that.
>> It really does, by the way. And by the way, I made $310 an hour, uh, stocking shelves at Keyfood in 1980. The inflation-adjusted number is about $40. Okay, if you really just look at the cost of living index. So, all right, we're going to we're going to go to bulls and bears. Uh, and just to remind everybody, I'm going to say the concept and Novo is going to tell you whether he's bullish or bearish with one or two sentences. Okay, but but I'll start first. Will Worsh hike rates this year? So, I'm bearish on that. I don't think he hikes rates this year.
>> I don't either. I think he he talks tough and I think he gets kind of bailed out because I think crude coming down, you know, $75 crude helps a lot.
>> Okay. Peace agreement with Iran holds. Bullish or bearish?
>> You know, it's how we define it. I I don't think it holds perfectly, but I think it holds enough that we're not we're not seeing oil back over $100 if you want to see it. Yeah. And this, listen, the Middle East is going to be a mess for a while. It just is. Like, we didn't install new leaders in Iran that we're going to ever trust. And they're never going to trust us. For God's sakes, we killed the guy's family. You know, come on, Anthony. Give me a hug. I'm sorry. It doesn't work that way.
>> Trump Trump thinks it does, though. I mean, I'm not making a political. Trump's like, "Yeah, no problem." You know, they need missiles. We need missiles. Okay. What about a Bernie Sanders AI plan getting passed? I'll go first. I'm bearish on that. These big tech companies have too much power in Washington. I don't think that gets passed. Look at Look at what the banks are doing to clarity right now. They got they got that little baby in the in the in the tub. Mike, they're trying to strangle that baby. Okay. Get me out. Get me out.
>> I don't I don't think it gets bad. You You think an AI plan from Bernie Sanders is going to get passed? He hasn't passed anything, this guy. I >> I don't think an AI plan will get passed like like Bernie's, but I do think you're going to see Dems and Republicans get very thoughtful on how to react to AI. It's going to be the discussion of the election. And so it'll be populist in the election, but there's got to be something. Uh, it's complicated because this again, if we didn't really fear China as a as an enemy, if it was, you know, a colleague, you would slow the whole thing down. You just would. Uh, and that's the bias until you could distribute the knowledge around how to protect yourself. Even just, you know, your data being hacked constantly, like these guys are the great, these AI models are great hackers, uh, manipulated your data being manipulated, your like all of the, I mean, we haven't passed a simple law like you should have a watermark on every AI video, picture, code. I should know I'm talking to the real Anthony, not an AI Anthony.
>> You're talking to the real Anthony and listen to me. This is the most important question I'm gonna ask you today. So, just I want you to channel all that meditation and get get ready. Okay. Team USA, will it win its second World Cup game against Australia?
>> I got my money on Team USA. I actually don't do sports betting, but if I did, I'd be betting big on Team USA. Well, you know that they look so good in game one.
>> I think they're going to pull off a second win as well. I'm not just saying that to, um, because I love the USA. I do think that can happen. Okay.
>> I've got I've got this tension. I'm out at Newark for the World Team Trials, the wrestling tournament that picks our team to go to the World Championships. Uh, so, you know, that's that's kind of my thing. And one of the sessions like runs an hour into the USA game and we're like, ah, phones and you, what do you do? Speaking of phones, all right, what let's go to inflation. Michael, inflation rates drop below 3% by end of the year. I'm going to say no to that. I don't think that that happens. I think you do get that trend line down in the first half of '27 though, if we can get a greater resolution of what's going on in the Middle East.
>> Yeah. I think what matters is direction. Listen, I said this before. What you really need to do when you got $40 trillion of debt is constantly have inflation a little higher than people are comfortable with, but not accelerating higher and tell people, "No, we're going to get to two. We're going to get to two." Right? If you if you run four and the economy is growing, you actually start eating the debt away a little bit. Uh, it's it's unfortunate. It's unfortunately the only thing that works.
SpaceX's acquisition of Cursor and this is something that I was, you know, these were things that Sam Bankman-Fried was buying when I was like hanging out with him. I did not understand these things. Okay.
>> I think he put like a I think he put like a couple million. Do you think that guy is literally taking like pins and just hitting himself every day? Why did I just have to steal that extra money? I could have just been one of the richest men on the planet on my own. In Listen, I'm I'm of the opinion that he eventually comes out of jail. Someone funds him with a venture capital business. I mean, the guy was a really, I mean, he was a good venture investor. But let let's go to Cursor. Um, it makes I think it makes a legit frontier model competitor to Anthropic or OpenAI inside of envelope of Elon Musk's company.
>> I think it it certainly helps Elon's company. Yeah, I'm not the expert, but just intuitively, Anthropic's in first place and Google's in second place, OpenAI is right there and and X is in last place. And so, he needs to he needs to do something.
>> I'm Look, I'm not, you know, I think you have SpaceX. Congratulations. I own a tiny bit of it. I'm not selling. I think this guy figures stuff out and I would just I know it's a little weak this week as we're talking.
>> I mean, you can't You can't say it's weak. It's $190 a share. It's a two and a half trillion.
>> It was like 215 for a minute there. I mean, it sold off from the 215. I'm just saying I I would I would look out. You You said it better than me and I'm going to repeat you. If you got two Teslas in your garage, probably shouldn't be shorting Tesla. I Listen, you know, shorting Elon Musk Musk has been a fool's errand. There has never been a company in the history of companies with more key man risk.
>> Like especially once they merge Tesla and SpaceX, which I'm told will happen by the end of the year, like I'm told. Yeah. I rumor grade fine. But assume that happens, that company four trillion dollar company overnight. If if something, you know, horrible happened to Elon, would lose 75% of its value and there's no other company in the world you could say that about.
>> Yeah. But also, I mean, if that merges, his vision is complete. He's going to have robotics. He's going to have solar technology. He's going to have everything he needs to get Mars in one company.
>> What he has is all that data from, I mean, why this self-driving car is so good is because he had all that data. Right. Right?
>> These machines really, the moat in some ways is data. Uh, and so, you know, I I
>> I'm not I'm not bearish Elon Musk. I'm think the SpaceX price gets hyped up. It will once the liquidity comes available to people. It will go way back down and then it'll probably find an equilibrium and grind back higher.
>> Maybe he'll also be the first $1 trillion life insurance policy. Maybe something like that. All right, Michael. Last question on this topic and then we're going to move quickly to the end. Stock markets end the year at an all-time high. So, I'm a yes on that.
>> It certainly feels like it. Like this week we we got through Worsh's hawkish. The market didn't care. The Worsh's ending. SpaceX IPO went, I mean, you got to give Goldman and JP and those, they and Elon mostly, that was brilliant, brilliant execution of three times the biggest IPO of all time. And so it gives the market confidence that you could place that much paper and bring on that much market cap without complete disruption. And so if you looked at the memory stocks of the last couple days, they're exploding north again and you're like, you can't short that chart. And I have foolishly bought puts on the NASDAQ put spreads, try to hedge my overall long and and I think that strategy is a lot of people are using is stay long winners and hedge with put spreads. It it just feels like we could have a melt-up and that's how that's how great bull markets end, uh, with a big right. I would tell you the last thing just from my perch, the demand for power isn't going away. Uh, again, one of the one of the senior LLM founders said, I'll buy every computer on earth. I don't see that slowing in the next few months.
Okay, this is something sad for me, but it's also near and dear to my heart. And I want you to be my therapist, right? And there is somebody out there on X called Bitcoin therapist. Okay, let me read you this. Okay, the RSI for Bitcoin is now at an all-time low. Google searches for Bitcoin are way down and we have now drawn through the 50% peaked trough. Long-term holders now control a record 79% of circulating supply and reactivation of old coins is at its lowest level since 2012. Is that a sign of weak selling pressure that we are at a bottom? Michael, you've been doing this for almost 40 years. Or is that a sign that this is a dead asset?
>> Yeah, it's a painful question. I think you got to give Bitcoin the benefit of the doubt. Uh, at least until this time next year. And what I say about that is like, could we go a little lower? If we go through 60, of course we could. People are so vested in this over the last 15 years. It's a it's a life for people that most of those long-term holders aren't selling and it will get its narrative back. The narrative is the Fed will be cutting rates at one point. There's just very with the populism we're talking about, there's very small chance that we actually get ourselves out of the financial mess we're in and that we don't have to inflate our data away. So, the narrative comes back and it's really a good brand. It just has no energy right now. There are no new buyers. Uh, there's no, and and Michael Saylor's in a pickle. You know, he's got this preferred instrument that's now trading way below par. And now he doesn't have to do anything, but there's all this pressure for him to do something. And and we'll see how that plays out. That's weighing a lot on Bitcoin, right? He's the biggest salesman of Bitcoin. He's the biggest holder of Bitcoin. He's the biggest advocate. And so I don't think it's in a great space. Uh, right now. I I don't advocate selling at 60, uh, if you're a long-term holder because you know that four-year cycle kicks back in in October, uh, maybe right when the economy's slowing enough that Worsh can hype rates, uh, cut rates, you know, end of the year, beginning of next year. And so I think if you're a long-term holder of Bitcoin, you got to give it to March of next year. If it hasn't come back by then, maybe scratch your head and say that I missed something. But I don't think I think it's too early to throw in the towel.
>> I'm with you. But also, it has the market capitalization now of Micron Technology. So to me, even some incremental demand would lead to higher price movement. So let's see there. I remain a bull. What made you smile this week, Mike?
>> You know, that Knicks parade, uh, the the city was unified in a way you I've never seen the city unified. You know, even more so than 9/11 because 9/11 we were unified over something that was so horrible. Uh, this was so joyful and, you know, I lived downtown and it was like a little bit heartbreaking in that you had all these dads bringing their and moms bringing their five and six and eight-year-old kids in with their Knicks in and if you weren't in that bullpen by by 6:45, there was a 50% chance you were getting in. If you weren't in there by 7:15, there was a zero chance. And so I'm walking to work at 7:15 and all these, you know, I see these kids going there and I'm like, "Oh, the disappointment." Dad, we got on the train at 5:00 a.m. There was that many people. I've been to the the the Yankees ticker tape parades and, you know, this was 4x the volume of people of joy.
>> You had to love New York.
>> Univer there are Met and Yankee fans. There are Knicks fans. That's it. I mean, this city is unified with Knicks fans.
>> And listen, that team was so like, they were such decent guys through the whole season. Brunson hasn't had a bad interview. Not a bad interview. Just a class act. I mean, they were three Villanova guys and they got the Pope on their side for God's sakes. I It's sort of a weird thing to tell you, but I'm going to tell you what made me happy this week. Uh, and you may remember Eric Schwarz from Goldman, who was one of your partners. Uh, he's the chairman of the board of City Harvest and he nominated me to become a board member there, which I accepted and the board voted me in unanimously. So I'm going to be working with them on this food insecurity issue. So personal, but very made me very happy because I think
>> I think Michael, you and I, you know, we got a lot of work to do in these uh decades ahead of trying to help people, you know, have the aspiration that you and I were able to live, you know, so I'm super happy about that. It really is a a a such a dis discombobulating thought that in the richest city in the world and the most awesome city in the world, 354% of our kids wake up every day food insecure. And God forbid if they didn't have the school lunch, it would be worse.
>> School breakfast and lunch.
>> And so something's got to change.
>> All right. Well, I'm telling you, this is All Things Markets for this week. Michael, have a great weekend. Good luck at the wrestling stuff. And I'll I'll uh, we'll see you next week on All Things Markets.