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One of the most depressing global trends in recent years has been the persistent increase in the number of ongoing armed conflicts. With growing disregard for international law and human rights, an enormous spike in drone warfare, and now the emergence of military AI, 2026 is likely to see a continuation of this trend, leading to the deaths of tens of thousands more civilians. So, in this video, we'll take you through some of the world's ongoing and emerging conflicts and how they might develop throughout 2026.
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The first and most recently inflamed conflict is between Thailand and Cambodia. In early December, clashes broke out between Thai and Cambodian troops on the disputed border of Priya Vajar province, one of several contested sites along the two countries' shared 800 km border. The Thai military claimed that Cambodian soldiers had opened fire on a Thai engineering team repairing a road in Thailand's Siset province. While Cambodian authorities accused Thai soldiers of engaging in numerous provocative actions for many days, in the following days, at least half a million people fled the area as air strikes and gunfire continued, killing 23 people.
This recent escalation continued a series of clashes throughout 2025. In May, a Cambodian soldier was killed by gunfire in the same border region. And in July, a multi-day clash erupted, prompting Malaysia, the head of ASEAN, and the US to broker a ceasefire with an expanded peace agreement signed in October in the presence of US President Donald Trump.
Political tensions have also risen between the two countries after a leaked phone call earlier this year between former Thai Prime Minister Patong Tan Shinawat and Cambodia's longtime former leader Hunen revealed Shinowat praising him while condemning her own Thai military commanders. This scandal brought down Pitong Tan's government and increased anti-Cambodian sentiment in Thailand with a majority of the Thai public now believing Thailand shouldn't be associated with Cambodia. Thailand's new prime minister Anutin Chan Vinul has also taken a hard line on Cambodia and has ruled out any immediate negotiations, suggesting this conflict could potentially flare up again in 2026.
The next conflict to keep an eye on is the US's military buildup around Venezuela. Since late August, the US has deployed 15,000 troops and a dozen warships, as well as aircraft carriers, guided missile destroyers and helicopters to the southern Caribbean near the Venezuelan coast, while simultaneously building up the US military presence on Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. The US has claimed that this is about combating drug trafficking from Venezuela into the US, but it's pretty clear that they also want to pressure Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro out of power.
Since September, the US has launched more than 20 strikes on alleged drug trafficking boats in international waters, killing at least 83 people. The most controversial of these took place on the 2nd of September when US Defense Secretary Pete Hexth reportedly ordered a double tap strike to kill survivors of an initial strike, which is broadly considered illegal under international law as an act of extrajudicial killing. Trump has also repeatedly hinted at US strikes on Venezuelan territory in the near future, saying it's going to be starting on land pretty soon.
Moreover, in early December, the US military seized an oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast, an act the Venezuelan government described as blatant theft and international piracy and imposed sanctions on six more ships said to be carrying oil. Venezuela accuses the US of wanting to gain control of the country's enormous oil reserves, the largest in the world. Given the continued buildup, tensions look likely to continue into 2026 with direct military confrontation a real possibility.
Moving to Europe now, where Russia's hybrid war has escalated in recent months, with analysts expecting further Russian sabotage attacks and subversion in 2026. For context, in September, Russian drones flew into Polish and Romanian airspace. Russian fighter jets flew into Estonian airspace and suspected Russian drones were spotted near airports or military facilities in Denmark, France, Germany, Norway, and Belgium. In November, a Russian spy ship called the Yantar was suspected of mapping undersea cables between the UK and Norway and had shone lasers at RAF pilots tracking it from above, prompting the two countries to announce a new joint submarine hunting alliance in December.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, Russia has ramped up its drone attacks on Ukrainian civilian and energy infrastructure since the summer. And Ukraine has also increased its own attacks on Russian oil facilities, including striking a target in the Caspian Sea for the first time this month. At the same time, the US's unequivocal turn away from Europe, marked by the Trump administration's recent national security strategy, which was well-received in Russia, has renewed Europe's focus on defense readiness and deterrence. France and Germany have both recently announced new military service schemes and the UK armed forces minister also said this month that the UK was rapidly developing plans to prepare the country for war.
Moreover, NATO chief Mark Rutter controversially said earlier this month that Europe should prepare for quote the scale of war our grandparents and great-grandparents endured. While a direct Russia-Europe conflict still seems a distant prospect, there has been a notable shift in rhetoric from European government officials in recent months, seemingly aimed at preparing their populations for war. The US also wants Europe to replace its role in NATO by 2027. Unless a peace deal can somehow be negotiated in the coming months, which feels unlikely given the clear gap between the Russian and Ukrainian positions, the Ukraine war looks likely to continue for the foreseeable future with Europe taking more of the strain. In February, the Russia-Ukraine war will enter its fifth year and as the Economist notes, on June 10th, the fighting will have lasted longer than the First World War.
Let's move to West Africa now where for the past few years jihadist insurgencies have escalated across several countries in the Sahel region like Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, as well as spreading to coastal nations like Cote d'Ivoire and Nigeria. Current trends suggest that in 2026 militant activity will expand further along the southern borders of the Sahel countries into Benin, Togo, Ghana and Cote d'Ivoire. In the first 11 months of 2025, Benin saw 70% more fatalities compared to the same period in 2024. And jihadist attacks on security forces in Western Mali, as well as kidnappings of foreign workers in Mali and Niger, have also surged to record highs in 2025.
Conflict analysis suggests that 2026 will see a further consolidation of a new front line in the Benin, Niger, and Nigeria borderlands, which is gradually becoming an area of competition for various militant groups, including Islamic State's West African factions. This is a serious crisis that probably doesn't receive as much media coverage as it should. Persistent instability has stunted the economic development of one of the poorest regions in the world, undermined state institutions, and created a transnational refugee crisis. Moreover, since the US cut foreign aid in early 2025, humanitarian organizations and local NGOs operating in West Africa have faced severe funding shortfalls, further worsening the humanitarian situation.
Let's move a bit further south now to Sudan, where civil war will enter its third year in April 2026. The conflict, which has killed more than 150,000 people and internally displaced around 12 million, is being fought between the Rapid Support Forces, RSF, a paramilitary force allegedly backed by the UAE, which grew out of the Arab Janjaweed militia, and the Sudan Armed Forces, or SAF, which is backed by Egypt and Turkey. Sudan is now effectively split into two blocks governed by opposing sides.
In October, the RSF, which controls much of western Sudan and the Darfur region, captured the city of El Fasher after an 18-month siege. While the SAF still currently controls the capital Khartoum and eastern regions, it's increasingly under pressure in central Sudan's Kordofan region, where RSF advances threaten vital supply routes linking Khartoum to Darfur. Next year, analysts expect the conflict to continue with each side seeking to consolidate its gains and fight for territory in Kordofan despite a renewed effort by the so-called Quad group of the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt to negotiate a ceasefire.
The final potential conflict to keep an eye on next year is Taiwan. Despite the US's long-standing policy of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan, Trump's return to office has heightened concerns among Taiwanese officials who worry that Trump might not intervene to defend the island in a potential conflict with China. Chinese President Xi Jinping is believed to have set a deadline of 2027 for the Chinese military to be ready to invade Taiwan. And this month, China deployed 100 warships across the East and South China seas in its largest maritime show of force to date.
At the moment, analysts think a Chinese blockade of Taiwan is more likely than an invasion, which would be one of the most logistically and geographically difficult military operations ever attempted. But even a naval blockade would risk economic backlash through sanctions on China by the US or its allies. That said, America's so-called China hawks are concerned that China is preparing for a potential conflict given its ongoing stockpiling of commodities like oil, gas, and critical metals. Although it's also possible that China is just stockpiling to ensure the security of its supply chains amid global trade uncertainty.
Finally, we should end by acknowledging that there are also ongoing conflicts between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, Congo and Rwanda in East Africa and India and Pakistan in Kashmir, as well as proxy conflicts in the Middle East, a civil war in Myanmar, and rising tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Sadly, as the ICRC points out, armed conflict is now a defining feature of our time with 2026 likely to see a continuation of localized conflicts across the globe and a widening gap between humanitarian need and provision.
We're taking a break from regularly posting over the festive period, but if you did want more from TLDDR, then check out our magazine, Tulong, which is also available as a digital edition, so you can start reading instantly. Obviously, the cover story is called The New Middle East, but there's much more than that with full sections dedicated to UK, EU, and global news. The EU section includes our interview with fellow creator Money and Macro, where we discuss how to fix the European economy, Macron's fall from grace, and how Albania has implemented an AI minister. The global section discusses why Trump's mandate isn't quite what it seems, how politicians conquered social media, as well as our rundown of the biggest elections that happened in 2025. And our UK section runs through the rise of a new left, why next year's elections are critical at all levels, as well as the strategies Starmer ought to take to maintain power and Farage to gain power.
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