Transcription
Trump is heading towards an electoral black hole. I feel like this is like one of those magician's tricks, right? Where the floor just falls out from underneath you. And that is exactly what is happening with President Trump, Kate, off on the side laughing there.
Trump's approval hits record term two lows all out this week. You know, you mentioned the CNN poll, 34%. You think that's all? How about AP-NORC, 33%. You think that's all? How about Quinnipiac University, 32%. So you look at it and you get three different pollsters all saying that Trump is hitting term two lows this week. In fact, Quinnipiac, I believe that is an all-time low for him. And the CNN poll, as you were mentioning, Kate, that is tied for an all-time low for him. So, is there a bottom? It does not appear to be, to me, that there is a bottom for President Trump.
Put, compare this to history for me, please. Yeah. Okay. So we'll compare it to history. Let's compare it to the other presidents who got a term two in the 21st century. You can see it right here. And I'm averaging CNN, Quinnipiac, and the AP. Look at this approval. 21st century presidents at this point in term two. You average them out. You average out CNN, Quinnipiac, AP, you get 33% for Trump. Obama wasn't too hot to drop, but he was at least at 41%. How about George W. Bush? The Iraq War was raging on back then during the 2006 electoral cycle. He was still at 38%. Trump is at the lowest of any president at this point in term two for a 21st century president. You have to go all the way back to Richard Nixon to find a lower approval rating at this point in term two. And of course, Richard Nixon was resigning in about a few weeks at this point in 1974. Not the comparison you want to be making if you're Donald John Trump.
What is behind his historic low? What's driving it so low? Yeah. What is driving it so low? Well, what was the reason that President Trump got a second term in the White House? It's the economy. We just keep going back to the economy. I feel, you know, like we're, we're, we're, we're on Antenna TV. We're playing back the oldies, playing back the repeats. Economic approval. Okay, take a look here. Where's President Trump at this point in term two? Just 30%. Just 30% approve of the job he's doing on the economy. Obama was at 38%. George W. Bush was at 38%. These guys were doing terribly, but he's doing terrible, terrible, terrible. You know, I'm trying to do my best. Charles Barkley here. I can't really do it this early in the morning, but it's just absolutely awful at this point. No wonder President Trump is at historic lows for a term two president at this point, matching, if not exceeding, his term two low already. It's simply because people are not pleased with the economy. And when you're not pleased with the economy, you get the good old-fashioned boot.
Young voters are fed up and they're taking their anger out on President Trump. We'll start off there. Take a look here. Voters under the age of 50 on Trump. In the fall of 2024, Kamala Harris led her polling by just three points. Look at where Donald Trump is. He was within three points of Kamala Harris. Now, his net approval rating on the year in the average of CNN polling. Look at that. Minus 41 points. That is a shift of 38 points away from the President of the United States. He is falling through the floor. If you look at the trend line among voters over the age of 50 or 50 and older, the shift that we've seen amongst them against President Trump is less than half that. In fact, it's under a 15-point shift. So, the reason why President Trump is so unpopular at this point is the shift among younger voters, those under the age of 50, your Gen Z, your millennials. They gave President Trump a little bit of a try in 2024. No longer. He is down there, right there, underneath the ocean floor.
How does that, and how does that translate to when you're looking at Congress? Yeah. Okay. So obviously, President Trump is not on the ballot this year. But if you're a Republican in Congress and you think you're going to escape the unpopularity that President Trump has amongst younger voters, you've got another thing coming. Because just take a look at these shifts. Okay, in the fall of 2024, the choice for House margin. Democrats were leading amongst those under the age of 50 by four points. Look at that lead now, though. Look at that lead now. It's more than four times that, a double-digit shift. Their lead is now 17 points. Look at those 50 and older. Look at that. Republicans led by eight. They now lead by six. Basically the same. The reason why Democrats have been able to jump out to this lead in Congress, the reason why that they are likely to take back the US House of Representatives is not older voters. The key game that has shifted here, the key play that has shifted here is younger voters. Those under the age of 50 are taking out their anger, it seems to me, that they have against President Trump. They're going to take it out against Republicans in Congress this fall. This is a titanic type of shift away from the Republican Party and to the Democratic Party.
A generally believed predictor, of course, in how things will pan out is enthusiasm, the enthusiasm gap, if you will. So the most motivated voters, the people most excited or most, yeah, excited to turn out in the midterms. How is this looking? Yeah. Dem younger voters are as excited to turn out for this midterm as I am. Every single morning I appear with you. As I bam off the screen, to quote Emerald Leguizamo. And these are bam numbers. I mean, look at this. Voters under the age of 50, the choice for the House among the extremely motivated. You know, you go back to the fall of 2024. Democrats only had a two-point lead amongst them. Look at this lead now in a 2026 average. It's a 46-point advantage among the voters who are most likely to turn out. Because midterm elections have lower turnout than presidential years, the extremely motivated is a very key. That is, that is a wild, this is wild. This is a wild shift. Okay, taking the words right out of my mouth. We're talking about a 44-point shift amongst those who are extremely motivated to turn out and vote. These are the types of numbers that blue waves are made of. And if there is a blue wave come November, it will be because of voters under the age of 50, younger voters who gave Republicans and President Trump a try in 2024. They are doing a 180 and they're saying, you know what, we're going back to Team Blue. At least in the polling we see so far.
Trump's not up for a rating on inflation. In our latest CNN poll that has been coming out over the last few days, the net approval, approval minus disapproval, 50 points underwater. I looked back at every single poll before President Trump that asked about inflation and the approval rating of the president. There has never been a president before President Trump who had ratings this bad, at least 50 points underwater. That's an over 50-point shift from where we were before the election, where of course, President Trump was more trusted on inflation than Kamala Harris, which is why he got a second term. I'm honestly, that is an insane. Have you seen down 50 points anything? No, only on gas prices, which of course is part of this equation, right? I mean, as I said, laughably bad. You just don't ever see numbers like this.
All right. So when you give us a sense of why they're blaming Trump. I mean, kind of obvious. Yeah. But, but why? I mean, just take a look at the cost of living direction on the cost of living. The country is on the wrong track. The right track. Look at this. 70%. 70% of Americans say we're on the wrong track when it comes to the cost of living. Even among Republicans, even among Donald Trump's own party that sticks with him through thick and thin, the plurality, 50% of Republicans say we're on the wrong track when it comes to the cost of living. Just 38% say the right track. No wonder that President Trump is putting up historic numbers in the wrong direction when it comes to inflation.
So what does this tell us about whether the prediction markets think that this is going to lead to an inflation hike by the Fed? Okay, so I think there are two things that are going on here. I'm going to give you a little bit more information and then we're going to do the Fed hike. Take a look here. I mean, just take a look when it comes to, you know, lowering prices. Trump's focused too little on lowering prices. We're talking about 78%. 78% of Americans overall don't think he's focused enough. No wonder his numbers are so low. Even among Republicans, it's 58%. It was just 48% where we were at the beginning of Trump's presidency. So among Republicans, we've crossed the 50% threshold. Overall, it was already two in three. Now it's about four in five. And of course, this is the key question, right? Will there in fact be a Fed hike when it comes to interest rates, which of course would be a sign that they think inflation is bad. The chance that the Fed raises interest rates in 2026. You know, you go back to February 28th, it was just a 13% chance. Look at where we are now this year. A 64% chance that the Fed does in fact raise those interest rates, which is a sign that they're worried about inflation, just like the American people are, at least according to the cash prediction markets.
Yeah, he's being a little, the Fed chairman is being a little bit, uh, different from other Fed chairmen. A little mysterious. A little, a little vague, a little vague, which is something I never am. And these numbers certainly are not minus 50 points. Historically bad, laughably. Truest thing said today that Harry engine is never ever ever been. We've seen those Democratic socialists really thrive in big urban areas, right? New York, Pennsylvania, you go out to Colorado. Well, it's no longer just in the urban areas anymore. At least according to the cash prediction markets, we got a Wisconsin Democratic primary going on. We got Hong, who is running, who is now, in my opinion, the clear favorite to win that Democratic nominee. She's a Democratic socialist. Her chances up like a rocket. On June 30th, it was just 41%. Now, a 96% chance to be the Democratic nominee in Wisconsin, a Democratic socialist, according to the cash prediction markets. So, this is not just happening now in New York, Philadelphia, Denver. It looks to me like it's going to be happening in a place like Wisconsin, which of course is a very purple state, which it all kind of, it all works with each other, right? You've got the, the, you've got the, the wins in various places. You've got this chance of winning here in Wisconsin. You have the polling then on how many people identify as Democratic socialists. It seems just like there are wins for Democratic socialists all, all over the place.
What do you see in it? Yeah. What do I see? You know, I think there's this idea perhaps in Democratic circles. Oh, they're coming in from the outside. No, no, the call is coming from inside the house. It's your own voters. I mean, just take a look here. Voters identifying as Democratic socialists. When you look at self-identified Democrats, and we're talking about voters, we're talking about 41%. 41% of self-identified Democratic voters. It's not coming from outside the tent because just 20% of Dem-leaning independents actually identify as Democratic socialists. These are Democratic voters. These are people who voted for Kamala Harris. These are people now where we're talking about a little bit more than two in five Democratic voters who identify as Democratic socialists.
And what, and, and are they voting? Like, what about turnout? Yeah. What about turnout? Motivated to vote. Just take a look here. Okay. Dem-leaning voters voting in 2026, extremely motivated. 66% of Democratic socialists self-identified say they're extremely motivated to turn out and vote. That is higher than the 57% of all others of Dem and Democratic-leaning voters. So these are people who turned out in 2024 and they are extremely motivated to turn out in 2026. These are regular voters. They come from inside the tent. These are not infiltrators. These are Democrats who've been voting Democratic for a long period of time.
And this isn't just about a label. You think either? No, it's not just about a label. Just take a look nationally. Okay. Net favorable among Democratic voters. Zamani. I'm not sure there's a better known Democratic socialist nationwide besides Bernie Sanders. Plus 56 points. Look at that. Chuck Schumer at just plus 14 points. Democratic socialism is the name of the game right now in Democratic primaries. And you see Zamani quite popular, especially compared to Chuck Schumer.
And you would think that Democrats would be able to take advantage and be dominating Republicans when it comes to who is trusted to handle the Iran war. That simply put is not the case at all. I mean, these numbers are quite surprising. Trust Dems or Republicans on according to CNBC earlier this month. You'd think, okay, that's one poll. The Republicans trusted by two points. But then CBS News comes out yesterday and what do you see? You see the exact same thing. Trump and the Republicans take the cake. They are trusted by two points on Iran. Now, one poll is one thing, but you put the two of them together, and you can see that the American people, simply put, are not buying what Democrats are selling on Iran. They still trust Republicans more, even if you look at President Trump's approval ratings on the subject, and they're negative, too. But yet, Republicans and Trump still more trusted than Democrats are on Iran.
Has there been any change over time? No. And this is even more surprising, right? You might think, okay, as the war has gone on and on and on, you might think, hey, the Democrats would be gaining ground in terms of trust that the American people would give them on Iran. If anything, it's the opposite. It's the opposite. Trust Dems or Republicans were around. In April, according to a Washington Post Zogby poll, the Democrats were more trusted by two points. Again, close margin, no clear leader. But look where the shift has been. If anything, the shift has been in the Republican direction. Now the Republicans and Donald Trump are trusted more by two points on Iran. So again, over the course of the war, if anything, [clears throat] the Republicans have been the ones that have been gaining ground, which I think just goes so opposed to all of the news coverage that we have seen so far and all of, you know, the media. You would think, hey, but no, the American people are actually trusting the Republicans and Trump, if anything, more now than they were, let's say, halfway through the war.
How possible is it that part of this is just that Americans don't like Democrats in Congress much at all? Yeah, I think this is a big part of it. The Democratic Party, in the minds of the American public, are weak, weak, weak, to quote the great Tony Blair. I, I, I mean, just look at this. Just look at these net approval ratings of Democrats in Congress. In late February, at the beginning of the war, it was -41 points. -39. -39. And so you're just looking at these numbers right here and you go to yourself, no wonder, no wonder what's going on at this point that Democrats simply put cannot take the ball and run with it and actually in the polls be trusted and run because the Democrats in Congress simply put are not well-liked. In fact, these are the three lowest on record in terms of percentage points for the approval for Democrats in Congress. So it all puts together a picture. Donald Trump and Republicans may not be liked, but Democrats in Congress are really hated.
Highest disapproval ratings for Trump. You know, back in January of 2021, that was his term one high, and that was 62% of Americans after January 6th disapproving of the job that President Trump was doing. Take a look here. Now, the latest poll, 66%. Two in three Americans disapprove of the job that President Trump is doing. That is the highest ever recorded by CNN for President Trump in either of his two terms. And more than that, independents are the name of the game. And get this, my little note to me right here. 76% of independents disapprove of the job that President Trump is doing. As I said, breaking records in all the wrong ways.
Now, it's not just President Trump in terms of breaking records when we compare him to himself. What about bringing other presidents into the equation? Well, take a look here. Okay. Disapprove of job in CNN polls at this point in term number two. We mentioned President Trump, 66% of Americans disapprove of the job that he is doing. Well, for Barack Obama at this point in term number two, it was just 55%. George W. Bush, who was really struggling at this point as the Iraq War wore on back in 2006. Get this, 59% of Americans disapproved of the job that he was doing. So, President Trump, we can say at this point, has the highest disapproval rating of any American president this century at this point in term number two.
Now, President Trump's ratings are obviously quite poor, but is there any optimism for the future from Americans? In a word, Max? No, there isn't. Take a look here. Okay. Feelings about rest of Trump's term number two. Well, back in December of 2024, just before he took office, look at this. Most Americans were enthusiastic or optimistic about term number two for President Trump. The majority were 52%. 48% said they were pessimistic or afraid. Look at that pessimistic or afraid number. That percentage up like a rocket. Now it is two in three Americans aren't just disapproving of Trump right now. They lack optimism. They're pessimistic or afraid for the rest of Trump's term number two. Compare that to just one in three Americans who are enthusiastic or optimistic.
Showing a driver's license or a picture ID when you show up to vote at the polling place. What do voters say about that? Yeah, overwhelming support for it. We've spoken about it before and the polling really hasn't shifted all that much and you can just see it right here. Okay, so we're talking about voter voters favoring voter ID to vote among all voters. We're talking 77%. And this is uniform basically or universal, I should say, universal. Democrats 62%, independents 77%, Republicans 95%. This is something that is popular across the political spectrum. It is a rare thing that is popular across the political spectrum. When it comes to voter ID, the voters are with President Trump on this, whether they're Democrats, independents, or Republicans. Overall, very clear. We're talking about three and four overall who support the idea of photo ID in order to vote. Even 62% of Democrats show an ID when you show up to vote.
Now, showing a very specific ID when you register to vote, proof of citizenship, like a passport, birth certificate, or Real ID, which not every state has. How do voters feel about that? Yeah. Okay. So I think this might be a little bit more in the eye of the beholder. Johnny and I were, were talking about this. So document proving citizenship to vote. What you can see here is again, it's clear the majority are for it. The majority are with President Trump here. We're talking about 54% of Americans. We've seen this in poll after poll after poll. It is lower than the voter ID, but it is clear. You get that 54% who support it. You get 37% opposed, which is a sizable minority, but definitely lower than the majority. And then among independents, which is a group that President Trump has really struggled with, you still see it here, right? You see the majority of it, or the plurality of independents, 49% supporting the idea of needing a document proving citizenship to vote, 49% versus 38% who are opposed. So whether it's overall or independents, yes, the support is lower than it is for voter ID. But it is very clear that the majority of people are in fact for it. It's definitely a majority. It's still not the 80% for voter ID when you show up to vote with the photo there. This is showing proof of citizenship to register there.
There are voting, you know, you know, public interest groups who say not everyone has access to a passport or Real ID or birth certificate. What are the numbers there? Yeah. Okay. So again, this is a bit in the eye of the beholder. Okay. Can produce citizenship proof to, to vote, like a passport or birth certificate, very easily or with some effort, but still pretty easily. 90%. So the lion's share, and this I think is part of the reason why the idea of producing a document to vote is so popular, is because most people think they can do it, at least with some effort or very easily. But there is this 10% who say hard, can't, or unsure. Johnny B, in terms of that. And yeah, and then I would just note just in terms of the chance that it becomes, I think that 10% very much like this number though, because the chance that the SAVE Act becomes law before January 4th, 2027, it's just a 7% chance. Just a 7% chance. So the American people are with it. But it's unlikely going to.