Transcription
Good evening, YouTube. And we have a daily candle close after daily candle close going lower and lower and lower. Uh, still no higher high. Can't look for a higher low yet. Uh, you're taking liquidity looking left. You just took that liquidity pushing down below. Next liquidity level is 92. So we may be visiting down there.
Um, I have reason to suspect we may be reversing here shortly, but that's not to say that this price can't continue capitulating further. Uh, if you see the draw down that happened earlier in the year, I mean, that's substantial. Um, we're kind of coming to that level of selloff. I guess if you measure down, I think it works better in linear scale, but in log scale, that would get you down to the 88, which would take out that liquidity, back test those previous highs, get you back to support. So, that may be where price is headed in log scale, maybe. But 96 is an area of interest. What we'll see first, you need a higher high, and then you buy the higher low.
Let's look at this in linear scale though. Linear scale, a similar draw down that happened earlier, 2025 would get you all the way down to 93 and that would be where you would look for a higher low. You have your higher high. This is around the area to look for a higher low. How low will that go? That's anybody's guess until it reverses. So there's no bottoms to be called just yet. But if this closes up at, you know, 110 for a daily candle close, there's your higher high, buy the higher low, then you can potentially start an uptrend. You are closing weekly candles lower low. So look for a lower high to be around 117 to 120. You're likely to have supply come in there, push price back down.
So, zooming out, it still doesn't look horrible. You're just performing similar draw downs to this, this to this. Unfortunate that we've spent so much time kind of hanging out about around here because that does beg the question, are you in a distribution and now you're entering markdown phase? Uh, it very well could be until it starts making a higher high and higher low. Then you've got a spring and a reaccumulation going on. Uh, but similar thing happened right here where many top callers saying that was the top. Price came down further than kind of expected, but it really just broke the range and went down a similar amount to the range lows. So if you see the breakdown took you an equal distance to what the range was. This range is a little tricky because it kind of uh was expanding quite a bit, but essentially it's the same size range that you had here. I didn't move the box and you have price contained within that box. So, if you do give that a breakdown, technically 90K would be the breakdown and that would match that coming all the way down. So, we'll see if we get down that far.
Uh, you don't have to get down that far. You've already taken liquidity here. Like I said, the next liquidities are down at 93, but I doubt there's much liquidity there. So really this is just a push down into potential capitulation happening. Um, I think you have multiple drives of bullish divergence happening on various time frames. So we may be coming into a low. Your volume is just declining. So there's no like continued sell pressure. It's not we're not having additional sell pressure down. And this is just bleeding out basically. Um, if this does reverse and you see the volume spike up, then that might mark a bottom. But no bottom yet.
While we're sitting here in linear scale, let's measure from all-time high to the end of this move before we had this retrace back up. And we can see where a 1:1 Fibonacci extension goes to 93, 936. So that would be an area of interest all the way down to 87, really. Um, if we do make it down to 79,000, that's that changes the chart. That makes it look pretty bad. And yeah, you could probably end up calling tops and you may have a 50% retrace of that move down back up to like 93 before pushing down for your 56,000 target there. But let's maintain where we're at and put it in linear scale or log scale. I mean, so this is log scale now. And your target for a 1:1 Fibonacci extension is 95, 95,500. We may make it there. Let's check the closing price. Closing price to closing price. So just on closures, you've already met the target. So you need to have a reaction here if this is going to be a completed move.
And as I was updating slice members, kind of tracking this and looking at the pattern, and I was proposing what it looks like is you're kind of repeating this. So that may complete your move down if you make it to the 1:1 Fibonacci extension. We're already there on a closing price. So maybe on a daily basis here, maybe this wicks down here, but doesn't close below 97. And then you can start something different maybe for Friday. But if you want to buy this, you don't buy as it's falling. You wait for the higher high. Buy your higher low at previous supports. And then your stop loss can go at the low. Until then, you just let this thing fall. And you can do that on different time frames.
I did suggest that you may see price kind of start chopping upwards and start a 4-hour uptrend and that may mark your bottom into a daily higher high. Get the daily higher low and trade up into this liquidity before pulling back some more. But just marking out the pattern, you can kind of see the similarities. This leg up measures just like this leg up. And now you've got on a daily here, you got one, two, three, four days down. Now you got one, two, three. This is our fourth day down now. So this might, if it matches that leg, it may be bottoming today. So that's why I wanted to put out a video here, say, hey, be on guard for a lower time frame uptrend potentially starting out of here.
Now, if you're trading a daily chart, there's nothing to do until this thing closes up here and starts an uptrend and then you buy the higher low. Or you can enter at a higher high and just know that your stop loss is going to be at the low. Can you get stopped out? Sure. I already got stopped out um earlier today. I think, yeah, I took it, that was yesterday. I got stopped out taking a trade after taking that liquidity and was hoping for higher and didn't get it. Well, it didn't go much higher. Got a little bounce, got stopped out. So, take the stop loss and you know, once you take liquidity, if you break below that liquidity, you're going for the next liquidity. And then if you break below that liquidity, you're going for the next liquidity. The next liquidity was the 97 looking left. So we now took that liquidity. Next liquidity is unfortunately down at 92, 91. Uh, so we'll see if we make it down there or we'll see if something something different starts here on a Friday.
Um, price has been basically down all week. I think that was a Monday high and just been down all week. So, let's look on the lower time frames to see if we could spot anything. 4-hour time frame, you can see is definitely bearish. We have lower low, lower high, lower low, lower high, lower low. Here's your lower high. So to get a trade off of this on a lower time frame like a 4-hour, you need a 4-hour candle close above the daily open. Daily opened up at 99,600. So daily or 4-hour candle close above there could start an uptrend and then you got to mark off your area, previous support. So the trade setup would be at 97. If this thing does turn around, you get a higher high close. This would be your higher low. But price has to turn around. So far, it's not turning around. So, nothing to do just yet.
So, I couldn't see anything on the 1-hour. So, I'm bringing it down to the 30-minute. And I can sort of see a pattern playing out here, which this is coming down. And that pattern should be completing after it takes liquidity down here, takes out that wick. And then you should have this leg push up maybe to the previous support. It'll be resistance and then continue this leg down. So maybe if you want to visualize it in Elliot wave terms, I guess you would paint that as a one, two, this ends up being your three, maybe a four that looks like that, and then down for five, which will get you down to that 95.5 area maybe to complete this pattern. And after that, if you do get a move that breaks above those highs, then you could potentially buy your previous supports. And then you break above the daily open and then you buy the previous supports that are over here and just keep raising your stop loss if that trade setup comes to play. So we'll see.
We'll see if this ends up giving you like an inverse head and shoulders type of thing and then you can manage your risk off of whatever low ends up being made after you make a higher high on this 30-minute time frame. And I could see a pattern like that emerging which this leg will move up into that and then one more push down. Maybe that happens for just before New York session, maybe maybe early New York session and then you can start a small little uptrend for a little little Friday reprieve and then we'll see how high that bounce gets if you do get a bounce. Um, so not super bearish yet. We'll see how this um weekly cycle/daily cycle low ends up. It could be very capitulatory. This thing can just continue down. There's there's a leg there that could match here and then you just get the small bounce like that and then you just continue down to 88. So, been a long time coming, but maybe we get 88.
But let's look at uh another chart, the Bitcoin versus gold chart that I've been tracking. So, we got Bitcoin versus gold here. And gold's been on a a nice run over the past few months. So, the price of Bitcoin has went down versus gold. But, it's coming down to an area of interest. I say that because of the measurements that I have of a potential five-wave move. um for Elliot wave. Now, this is in log scale, but I usually don't do Elliot wave in log scale. Usually, I save that for linear, but I was thinking that this could potentially be a peak of wave three going up there. And we've still got wave five to go for an Elliot wave impulse move of wave 1, two, and then 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 for wave three. Working on a wave four, coming back to wave four of lesser degree, and then pushing up for a wave five. This would make sense after taking the previous liquidities, selling down, and then go up. So this would end up being a distribution of sorts versus gold. So gold may perform very well uh against Bitcoin in the coming future.
But if this does have an up thrust, your up thrust target of this range would be that 2.618, roughly 63 to 65 ounces of gold per Bitcoin. And that could be coming soon based upon these measurements. If that is a wave three, then I would take a Fibonacci retrace from the bottom of wave two to the top of wave three and see where my Fibonacci retracees come. And the first leg down came to the 382 retrace. This is common for wave four and the completion of wave four comes to the 0.5 back to wave four of lesser degree. And you're getting in that vicinity right now at 23 ounces of gold per Bitcoin. You do have a pattern, nice little ABC pattern. It's coming to the 1:1 Fibonacci extension. If you were to take a measurement down for an ABC, you're getting down to the 1:1, which is 23. You're already at 23, but the chart says it goes a little bit lower. So, getting back down to wave four of lesser degree. It could be a buy setup. I think the pattern supports that. The relative strength index does support that. So, this is an area to watch for, but you need a higher high close. Um, this may bounce and then come back down and take out the low again, then go up. But this is the general area to look for a buy setup on Bitcoin versus gold.
But if that pattern does fail and you don't start any type of uptrend out of here, this can capitulate way down here to like a 618 retrace. And then you've got 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ABC way deep and then you go up. Like I said, not that bearish yet, but I'm open to the idea. I'd look for opportunities as they come. Um, but I'm currently hoping for an opportunity coming soon here to get higher high, higher low, and then reverse out of here. The leg that moves up might be very fast. A wave five tends to be very, very quick and violent uh because it's like an up thrust. So it brings people back into the market. So versus gold, um, Bitcoin might shoot up and have people kind of FOMO in and then it just sells off. So something to watch for.
I will say a chart that doesn't look right anymore to me is Ethereum. This doesn't look right. This coming down this far, it's losing the bullish structure. It doesn't look right to me anymore. And considering being so late in the cycle or the cycle may indeed be over, you could, you know, say that this is ABC up from your bare market lows. ABC, you're complete. You took liquidity up there and now you're about to capitulate down for an ABC down. Take out the lows. So, is it an excellent short? Maybe. Um, I think everything has kind of been oversold and you'd probably get a bounce here soon. Uh, I don't see any pattern completing here. I would have wanted Ethereum to hold the low. I think it was this low at 3500. I took that trade because it was a 50% retrace and that got stopped out. So now I'm sitting on the sidelines waiting on Ethereum to see it do something different. This has to close a higher high and get to a higher low and change what it's doing. But right now it's just in a downtrend. Like I said, the chart overall doesn't look right to me. It actually looks like it really wants to move down again, similar to what it's been doing before. The legs, as you can see, that are moving down are similar to like this leg moving down or even this. And that can be ABC up and it's complete. And we're going down for this. Maybe bounce up a little bit and then capitulate down later on 2026. So that's a that's definitely a bare case there. But yeah, Ethereum's kind of choppy anyway and choppy and bearish. I mean, this whole thing has been just a range. So, the next range trade is to the downside. We'll see.
Bringing it back full circle here. Bitcoin making that low. Yeah, it's taking out that liquidity and nothing to be seen here. It's just downtrend, downtrending. Very nice downtrend so far. Uh, wait for it to reverse. It gives you a higher high. Take the higher low. But right now, you don't have an argument for taking a long trade. You got an argument for a sell setup there since you are making lower lows and lower highs. Um, but we're coming into an area of interest. We're coming into a similar draw down as previously. So, keep your eyes peeled for a potential reversal coming in the next few days. Something to watch for. We will see. Until then, keep them stops tight and have a good night.