Transcription
My friends, I want to talk to you today about something that kept me awake last night. And I think if you are watching this, it kept you awake too. Because what is happening right now, right now, as I speak to you, is not just a war between two countries. What is happening right now is something historians will write about for the next 100 years. And the question that every single one of you, whether you are sitting in Singapore, in Kuala Lumpur, in London, in Chicago, or in Shanghai, the question every one of you needs to ask yourself today is very simple. Am I ready for what comes next?
My name is Jack Ma. I have built businesses. I have lost businesses. I have seen the world change in ways that nobody predicted. I have sat across the table from presidents, prime ministers, and the most powerful investors on earth. And I want to tell you something from the bottom of my heart. In all my years, in all my experience, I have never seen a moment quite like this one. This is not an exaggeration. This is not fear-mongering. This is reality. And I have always believed that facing reality clearly, honestly, even when it is painful, that is the only way to survive it. So, let us face it together.
On the 28th of February, 2026, just 8 days ago, the United States and Israel launched what they called Operation Epic Fury. Coordinated strikes, massive, unprecedented military force directed at Iran. Within hours, the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, was dead. 40 senior Iranian officials killed. The state broadcaster, the military command centers, the IRGC headquarters, all struck. Iran's parliament building struck while a meeting was in session to elect a new supreme leader. The world woke up that Saturday morning and could not believe what it was reading.
I remember the first time I heard about the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914. I was not alive then, of course, but I studied it. I studied it because that single moment, one bullet, one man, one morning, triggered the First World War. The entire European civilization collapsed in four years because of one decision, one morning in a city that most people had never heard of. History teaches us that there are moments, rare moments, where a single action changes everything. And my friends, I am standing here today telling you the 28th of February, 2026, may be one of those moments. But I am not here to scare you. I am here to help you understand, because understanding is power. And power in a world going mad is the only thing that protects you and your family.
Let me tell you what happened next. Because the story does not stop at the strikes. Iran did not collapse. Iran did not surrender. Iran fought back. And here is where it gets truly historic. Iran did not just fire back at Israel. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Now, I want you to stop for a moment and think about what that means. Most people hear "Strait of Hormuz" and they think, "Oh, some narrow waterway somewhere in the Middle East." Let me give you the real picture. Every single day, 20 million barrels of oil pass through that strait. 20 million. That is approximately 20% of the entire world's daily oil supply flowing through a passage that is only 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. 21 miles. I have friends in Shanghai who drive longer than 21 miles just to get to work in the morning. And through those 21 miles flows the energy that powers factories in China, hospitals in Japan, cars in South Korea, electricity in Singapore, homes in Malaysia.
Right now, that strait is effectively closed. The big shipping companies, Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, they have suspended all transit. Insurance companies have pulled their coverage. Oil tanker captains are anchoring their ships and waiting. Vessel tracking shows near-zero traffic. Qatar, one of the world's largest LNG exporters. The country that provides up to 20% of Europe's natural gas. Qatar stopped production, declared force majeure on its gas contracts. And the Qatar energy minister looked straight at the cameras last week and said, and I quote, "If this continues, this will bring down economies of the world." He was not being dramatic. He was being precise. Goldman Sachs came out this week and told us oil could hit $100 a barrel if shipping through the strait stays disrupted for five weeks. The Qatar minister said, "If it gets truly bad, $150 a barrel."
Think about what that means for you. Think about what that means for the price of everything you buy at the supermarket. Because nothing reaches your supermarket shelf without energy. Nothing. The food, the plastic packaging, the truck that delivered it, the refrigerator that kept it cold, all of it runs on the energy that used to flow freely through those 21 miles.
And here is what I find most fascinating from a strategic perspective. Because I have always been someone who looks at systems, at structures, at what the numbers actually tell you. The countries that are most exposed to this crisis are not countries in the Middle East. The countries most exposed are right here in Asia. Japan gets 70% of its Middle Eastern oil through the Strait of Hormuz. South Korea, the same. China gets approximately 40% of all its oil imports through that corridor. India gets roughly half its crude from that region. Singapore, where 41% of my audience watching this right now is sitting. Singapore is the world's third largest oil refining hub. Think about that for a moment. We in Asia, we built the most dynamic, fastest-growing economies in human history over the last 40 years. We lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. We built cities that would make the ancient Romans weep with envy. And we did it in large part on the foundation of stable, affordable energy flowing through that strait. That foundation is now shaking.
Now let me tell you about the players, because this is not simply America versus Iran. If you believe that, you are looking at the chessboard and only seeing two pieces. I have spent my life studying strategy, and I can tell you the real game here is being played by far more hands. Russia. Russia has been providing Iran with intelligence, real-time intelligence about the location of American warships and aircraft. Think about what that means. There is also a private Chinese company called Mysar Vision that has reportedly been using satellite imagery to track American military deployments with extraordinary precision. The Chinese government officially has called for an immediate ceasefire. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called his Russian counterpart Lavrov. They called together for the world to oppose, in their words, "the regression to the law of the jungle." China mourned a Chinese citizen who died in Tehran during the strikes. And China reminded the world that it is the largest importer of Iranian oil. Every barrel of disruption is a problem that lands on Beijing's desk.
And here is something I want you to think about carefully, because this is where my business mind starts to see the deeper picture. Russia benefits from this conflict economically. With Middle Eastern oil disrupted, the world needs more Russian oil. India is already pivoting hard toward Russian crude. China, which had been moderating its Russian oil purchases, will now likely increase them significantly if this disruption continues. So, Russia, sitting on the sidelines of this war, is quietly watching its oil revenues rise while its geopolitical rival, the United States, spends close to $900 million per day. That is the estimate from the Center for Strategic and International Studies. $900 million every single day on this military campaign.
Let me talk about America for a moment, because I have deep respect for America. I have done business there. I have learned from American entrepreneurs. The American spirit of innovation, of reinvention, of never giving up. These are things I admire deeply. But right now, I am watching America make a decision that I believe it will spend the next generation questioning. The US Senate had a chance to vote on a war powers resolution to force the president to come to Congress before continuing this war. The vote failed 47 to 53. The war continues without formal congressional authorization. America is spending money it does not have, $3.7 billion in the first 100 hours alone, and most of it unbudgeted, on a war whose endpoint nobody can clearly define. And Iran's president has looked America in the eye and said that "we surrender unconditionally is a dream that they must take with themselves to the grave." This is not a country that is going to quietly accept defeat.
Iran has fired over 500 ballistic missiles and nearly 2,000 drones in 8 days. Yes, the rate has slowed, America says, by 90% compared to the first day, but Iran's military strategists are clearly rationing, conserving, preparing for a longer fight. And Iran's ground forces are, by their own statement, waiting, their word not mine, waiting for a possible American ground invasion. Iran has said that any such invasion would result in thousands of American casualties. These are not empty words. Iran has fought proxy wars for 40 years. They know how to make an occupier bleed slowly. And Hezbollah has re-entered the conflict. Lebanese fighters striking Israel from the north. Israel has ordered evacuations of Beirut's southern suburbs. Lebanon's government is trying to distance itself from Hezbollah, even issuing arrest warrants, but they do not fully control what is happening on their own soil. Iraq's Iran-backed militias targeted a major hotel in Erbil. Yemen's Houthis have resumed attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, forcing ships to go around the entire continent of Africa, adding weeks to journey times and enormous costs to every shipment. The entire system of global trade is being stretched, tested, stressed in ways we have not seen since the Second World War.
My friends, I want to pause here and tell you a personal story. Many years ago, when Alibaba was just beginning, when we were 35 people in an apartment in Hangzhou, when most people thought I was crazy, I studied every crisis I could find. I studied the oil shocks of 1973. I studied the Asian financial crisis of 1997. I studied the dot-com crash of 2001. I studied the global financial crisis of 2008. And in every single one of these crises, I found the same pattern. The same pattern every time. The people who panicked, who froze, who simply watched in fear, they lost everything. The people who understood what was happening at the deepest level, who asked, "What does this mean?" rather than "How bad is this?" Those people found opportunity. Not immediately, not painlessly, but eventually, always.
I am not telling you the current situation is good. It is not good. Over 300 people have been killed in Iran in 8 days. Real people, fathers, mothers, children. 180 school children killed in a single strike. Iranian state media reported thousands attended their burial. Civilians in Bahrain, in Kuwait, in Saudi Arabia waking up to the sound of sirens, to intercepted missiles falling from the sky. Six American soldiers dead. Families grieving in Sacramento, in Iowa, in cities across the United States. This is not a video game. This is not an abstract geopolitical exercise. This is real human suffering on a massive scale happening right now as you watch this video. But I also know this: the world will not stop. History does not stop. The question is always, what comes next? And that is what I want to spend the remaining part of this conversation with you exploring together.
Let me tell you what I see coming. Not as a prophet, not as someone with a crystal ball, but as someone who has spent his entire life studying systems, studying human behavior, studying what happens when large forces collide. The first thing I see is a permanent restructuring of global energy. The Strait of Hormuz crisis, even if it ends tomorrow, has just demonstrated to every government, every corporation, every energy planner on earth that the world cannot remain this dependent on a single 21-mile choke point. This was always a vulnerability. Everyone knew it. But knowing a vulnerability exists and actually experiencing it closing are two entirely different things. After this crisis, the investment in alternative energy routes, in strategic petroleum reserves, in renewable energy, in nuclear power, that investment will accelerate dramatically. Countries like China, which were already pivoting toward electric vehicles and solar power, partly for energy independence reasons, will now push that agenda 10 times harder. This is not bad for Asia in the long run. Asia is already the world leader in solar manufacturing and battery technology and electric vehicles. A world that is racing away from Middle Eastern oil dependence is, in many ways, a world that is racing toward Asian industrial strength.
The second thing I see is a realignment of alliances. What is happening right now is not just a military conflict. It is a test of every relationship, every treaty, every alliance in the world. NATO ally Spain called this war an "extraordinary mistake." Europe is watching energy prices surge. Germany, France, Italy, they are dependent on Qatar's LNG. That LNG is not flowing. European gas prices surged 50% in a single day when Qatar stopped production. European leaders are going to face their populations very soon with a very difficult question: "Why are we supporting a war that is making our people poorer?" That pressure will build, and it will change the political landscape of Europe in ways that nobody fully understands yet.
China's position is the most fascinating of all. China is officially neutral. China is calling for peace. China is sending envoys, but China is also the world's largest importer of Iranian oil. China is also, through whatever means, having its companies track American military movements. China is watching this war with an intensity that goes far beyond neutral observation. Because China understands, deeply understands, that the outcome of this war will define the terms of great power competition for the next 20 years. If America wins decisively, installs a new government in Iran, reopens the strait on its terms, that is a message to Beijing about American power that will echo loudly in every conversation about Taiwan. If America gets bogged down, if the war drags on, if oil stays at $100 a barrel and the American economy starts to struggle, that is a very different message. China is watching, and China is patient. No country on earth plays the long game better than China.
Russia is also watching. Russia is fighting its own war in Ukraine and does not have the bandwidth to intervene directly. But Russia is providing intelligence. Russia is benefiting economically. Russia signed a strategic partnership with Iran last year. It is not a mutual defense pact. Russia has been clear it will not enter the fighting. But Russia is not neutral either. Russia is quietly, carefully positioning itself to benefit from every possible outcome.
And then there is the question that nobody wants to ask out loud. The question that keeps serious strategic analysts awake at night. Iran's nuclear program. The Americans and Israelis struck many military facilities. They struck SPND, Iran's Organization for Defensive Innovation and Research, the body believed to be responsible for nuclear weapons development. Several senior SPND officials were confirmed killed, but nobody has publicly said that Iran's nuclear capability has been completely eliminated. And here is the uncomfortable reality: a nation that feels existentially threatened, a nation watching its supreme leader assassinated, its military command decapitated, its civilian infrastructure destroyed, that nation has very powerful incentives to accelerate whatever capability gives it the ultimate deterrent. History shows us this with absolute clarity. When Muammar Gaddafi gave up his nuclear program and accepted the West's assurances of security, we all know how that story ended. The lesson that Iran's remaining leadership is drawing from history right now is not a lesson that leads toward disarmament.
My friends, I want to speak to you now, not as a businessman, not as a strategist, but simply as a human being who cares about this world and the people in it. I have traveled to over 50 countries. I have eaten food in homes across Asia, across Europe, across America. I have held the hands of entrepreneurs in Lagos and in London, in Tehran and in Tel Aviv, who all had the same dream: to build something, to create something, to leave something for their children. The vast majority of human beings on this earth want the same things. They want safety. They want dignity. They want opportunity. They want their children to have more than they had. War destroys all of that, every war without exception. The people making the decisions to launch these strikes are not the ones whose children will pay the price. The people who pay the price are always the same people: ordinary men and women trying to live their lives, caught in forces they did not choose and cannot control. 180 school children in Iran. Six young American soldiers in Kuwait. Families in Bahrain waking up to sirens. This is the real cost of war, and it is a cost that falls on the most vulnerable, always.
I have been asked many times over the years, "Jack Ma, what is your biggest fear?" And people expect me to say competition, regulation, technology, disruption. My biggest fear is none of those things. My biggest fear is a world where human beings stop talking to each other. Because every great catastrophe in human history, every war, every genocide, every economic collapse, began with a failure of communication. With leaders who stopped seeing the humanity in the other side, with populations who had been taught to fear rather than understand. The Strait of Hormuz being effectively closed right now is not just an energy crisis. It is a symbol. A symbol of what happens when the conversation breaks down completely, when the only language left is the language of missiles and drones.
So, what can you do? You, sitting wherever you are right now watching this video. First, protect yourself and your family financially. What is happening right now is going to create inflation. It is going to create uncertainty in markets. It is already creating it. Oil prices are up 15% since this began. European gas prices surged 50% in a single day. If this continues, everything gets more expensive: food, transport, manufacturing. This is not speculation. This is arithmetic. Review your financial situation. Reduce unnecessary exposure to risk. Build your emergency reserves. This is not panicking. This is being a responsible adult in an uncertain world.
Second, educate yourself. The most dangerous thing you can do right now is consume only one source of news. America's narrative about this war is different from Iran's narrative. China's perspective is different from Europe's perspective. Read widely. Think critically. Ask always, "Who benefits from this particular framing of events? What are they not telling me? What questions are not being asked?" Your ability to see the full picture, imperfectly but more fully than most, is your greatest protection against being manipulated.
Third, invest in the relationships that matter. In times of great uncertainty, the human connections you have built, your network, your community, your family, these are worth more than any financial instrument. The people who survived the great crises of the 20th century did not do it alone. They did it through relationships of trust and mutual support. Build those relationships now, while things are still stable enough to build them.
Fourth, look for the opportunities that crisis creates. I know this sounds cold. I want to be clear: I am not celebrating suffering, but I am a realist. And the realistic truth is that every major disruption in the global order creates new needs, new demands, new spaces where someone with vision and courage can build something valuable. The energy transition that this crisis is accelerating, that is a space. The supply chain diversification that every Asian country is now going to pursue with urgency, that is a space. The technology of energy storage, of renewable generation, of alternative transport, these are spaces where the next generation of great companies will be built. I have always told young entrepreneurs, "Don't look for the easy road. Look for the problem that is so big, so painful, so urgent that the whole world needs it solved." Right now, the world has several of those problems sitting in plain view. The people who will build the next Alibaba, the next generation of great Asian companies, they are watching these problems and asking not "How terrible?" but "How do I help solve this?"
Let me end with something. I believe with every fiber of my being this moment, as dark and as frightening as it is, will pass. History passes. The First World War passed. The Second World War passed. The Cold War passed. The Asian financial crisis passed. The pandemic passed. Humans are extraordinary creatures. We are capable of enormous cruelty, yes. But we are also capable of extraordinary resilience, extraordinary creativity, extraordinary compassion. Every generation that has faced the worst of what history can offer has also found a way through. The Strait of Hormuz will reopen. Diplomacy will find a path. Not quickly, not cleanly, not without more pain, but it will find a path. Because the alternative, a world that truly fractures along the fault lines we are watching right now, is a world that nobody, not China, not America, not Russia, not Iran, not Europe, nobody ultimately wins. The global economy is too interconnected. The consequences of full fracture are too catastrophic for every party involved. Rational self-interest eventually, almost always, prevails. Almost always. I hold on to that word carefully, but I hold on to it.
What I am asking you to do today, what I am urging you to do, as someone who has watched the world for 60 years and built something from nothing in the middle of uncertainty, is to be the calm in the storm. To be the person in your family, in your company, in your community, who does not panic, who does not freeze, who does not surrender to despair or to hatred, who understands what is happening at the deepest level and uses that understanding to navigate, to adapt, to build. The world needs that kind of person right now more than it needs more missiles, more than it needs more speeches from politicians. It needs people who are grounded, who are informed, who are courageous in the most important way: the courage to think clearly and act wisely when everything around them is chaotic.
There is one more dimension I want to address, because I think it is the one that my audience in Singapore, in Malaysia, in the broader Southeast Asian region needs to hear most directly. Southeast Asia has spent the last decade carefully, brilliantly walking a tightrope between the United States and China. ASEAN countries have built enormous prosperity by trading with everyone, allying firmly with no one, and keeping their options open. That strategy has worked extraordinarily well. But a world where the US and China are increasingly on opposite sides of a hot conflict, a world where taking no side becomes harder and harder, that is a world that tests the ASEAN model at its foundations. Malaysia's proximity to the Strait of Malacca, Singapore's role as the region's financial and trading hub, Indonesia's emerging economic weight, all of these strengths exist within a system of global trade that is currently under extraordinary stress. The leaders of these countries understand this. The business communities understand this. The question is, do ordinary people understand it? Because ordinary people vote. Ordinary people consume. Ordinary people decide what companies survive and which ones fail. And ordinary people who understand the global picture are better equipped to make the decisions—personal, financial, political—that will shape whether this region navigates the coming turbulence successfully. That is why I am here. That is why I make these videos, not to frighten you, to inform you. Because an informed public is the most powerful force in the world, more powerful than any army, more powerful than any missile. Knowledge clearly understood and wisely applied has always been humanity's greatest weapon against chaos.
And I want to say one more thing about China, because I think the global media is underreporting one of the most significant dynamics of this entire crisis. China right now is in a position of extraordinary delicacy. It is Iran's largest trading partner. It buys more Iranian oil than any country on earth. It has publicly condemned the American and Israeli strikes. It has sent envoys. It is working the diplomatic channels. But China is also deeply aware that a destabilized Middle East, a closed Strait of Hormuz, and a potential nuclear escalation are all directly catastrophic for Chinese economic growth. China's own economy is at a sensitive point, managing its real estate legacy, managing its relationship with a tariff-aggressive United States, managing the expectations of its own population for continued improvement in living standards. The last thing Beijing needs is $100 oil. The last thing Beijing needs is a global recession triggered by an energy shock. China wants this war to end quickly, cleanly, on terms that preserve what China has spent 20 years building across the Middle East in trade relationships, infrastructure, investments, and diplomatic capital. Watch what China does in the next two to three weeks, not what it says. That will tell you a great deal about how the deeper story of the 21st century is going to unfold.
I have always believed, and my entire life has been built on this belief, that the future belongs to those who prepare for it. Not to those who are strongest today, not to those who are richest today, but to those who understand where the world is going and position themselves accordingly. 30 years ago, nobody in the established business world thought China was going to become the factory of the world. 20 years ago, nobody believed that a small team of teachers and English language instructors in Hangzhou were going to build one of the largest companies in human history. 15 years ago, nobody believed that Asian technology companies would challenge Silicon Valley for global supremacy. The people who understood the direction of change, who had the courage to act on that understanding, those are the people who change the world. You are watching this video because you are one of those people. You want to understand, you want to be prepared. And that instinct, that hunger to know, to understand, to be ready, that is the most valuable asset you possess. Guard it, feed it, act on it. Be that person for your family, for your community, for this world that, for all its madness and all its beauty, is still the only home any of us have.
Thank you for watching. Thank you for caring enough to sit here with me for these 35 minutes and think about this together. If this conversation helped you see something more clearly, please share it, because the more people who understand what is actually happening, the more people there are who can respond wisely rather than reactively. If you want to go deeper on the economic dimensions of this crisis, how China is really positioned, what the oil shock means for Asia specifically, I covered some of this in my previous video. You will find that link below. Take care of yourselves. Take care of the people around you. And remember, in every crisis, the people who understand it best are always the ones who come through it strongest. Stay informed, stay clear, and stay human.