OPENAI RAISES $100B, WALMART EARNINGS, IRAN TENSIONS CONTINUE | MARKE TOPEN

Good morning everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market open. Thank you all for being here.

It is Thursday, February 19th. We are getting close to the end of the third trading week of February. We got one more week after this week ends and then we are done with the month of February and boy had is it has it been a tumultuous month with a variety of different headlines going back and forth.

We got a ton of stuff that has happened over the past 24 hours. Uh, we have earnings that have happened this morning. A lot of stocks that a lot of people care about. Also some stocks that have obviously been in the headlines for a variety of reasons because quite frankly they have been the rotation names from tech. Walmart and John Deere. We'll talk about that. We also said Etsy and Lemonade. I know a lot of people care about those names.

On top of that, you got some big AI headlines that happened last night. I think those headlines will have a variety of implications potentially in the price action that we see today. Today's also really important because we had two green days in a row uh Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday was relatively flat. Wednesday was actually a a really good green day yesterday. Unfortunately, we only ended at 686. We're now down in the pre-markets. This was the S&P price action about 30 minutes before we ended the day yesterday. As you can see, we went all the way up and came all the way down and then we slightly ended better than 684, but it wasn't the most encouraging in terms of adopting a trend.

Today is going to be important because we're red in the pre-market. And so, if we can actually reverse and go green and have three green days in a row, maybe we'd be forming some trend. Now remember today is Thursday and every Thursday for the past two weeks literally has been well honestly I think the last two Thursdays have been two of the worst days in 2026 in general. So we are back with another Thursday and hopefully that Thursday resists that trend of being one of the worst days in the stock market for 2026. But we're going to find out when the market opens later as we get into it.

Look at Carvana right there getting a little bit of a pump in the pre-market. Carvana was down 23% yesterday after earnings. Now it's only down 5%. They've had a lot of crazy price action over the past couple of hours. eBay is up 6%. They had good earnings. Door Dash was also down 10%. Now they're up 10% on their earnings. Lemonade not a bad quarter. That's up 11% not doing too bad. So is down about half a percent. Bitcoin below 66 unfortunately losing 66 right there live 658 right now on Bitcoin. And then you got the S&P 500 that's down basically at where it was yesterday around 330 684. You know hopefully we can make a run back up to that 687 688 level which is where we were at yesterday at the highs before things got hit.

So we got a lot to talk about, a lot to get into and we will do that as we start the market open. I think the biggest thing today again is just to see can we survive a third week in a row without Thursday being as ugly as the previous two Thursdays have been. And if we can, maybe we make a trend to the upside. If not, then it's one of those weeks where once again, Thursday, we end up dumping and we'll see Friday if there's any meaningful reversal that plays out.

We also have the Iran headlines that are continuing from yesterday. More updates on that that have happened over the past 10 hours. They're not good updates. I don't know if the market's necessarily going to react badly to them. The market already has, I think, to an extent, kind of priced it in and say, "All right, if this happens, this happens." But it could lead to the selling if people just don't want to hold over the weekend based on reports that Trump is planning a strike over the weekend. Again, we'll go deeper into it and see if that actually happens. But if it does, yeah, people are probably going to sell off some of their positions and just stay into cash. If not, then maybe it's not going to be that big of a deal.

All right. Good morning. Good morning. Good morning. Thank you everybody for being here. Let's get into it and let's get into all the different headlines that we have. I think we'll start off with OpenAI. That's kind of the biggest headline that happened last night. Open AI is actually no. We just got jobs claims. We did get jobs claims. Let me pull that up instead. Uh, because that's actually some important jobs data. Is it going to be that big of a deal? Oh, wow. Yeah, it's actually good.

All right. So, the street expected 225,000 jobs. We for unemployment. We came in at 206,000. So, not too bad. Once again, it shows that the labor market is not in the worst condition ever. 206,000 people filed for unemployment. Street expected 229,000. I mean, initial jobs claims have been coming in much lower for the past couple weeks. I mean, the past two weeks have been a little bit higher, but the two weeks before that, it's it was almost at like historic lows. So, this is why the Fed yesterday, I mean, for those that missed the Fed minutes conversation, uh, you know, you had some Fed officials saying we should probably hike rates because the risk of the downside of the labor market have diminished and the risk to inflation has increased, which is a total 180 from what they said in December. But when you get labor market data like this, it kind of goes back to the Fed's point, which is that the labor market is not something that should be in so much of concern.

Now, I don't know if you just judge it off initial jobless claims, 6% chance now for a rate cut in March, given the anecdotal that we've seen across private companies that are laying off people, but it's good to see that not too many people are uh applying for unemployment, which means, you know, the actual economy has enough disposable income to go around, which is good for company's earnings. So, that's what we got with Jobless Games. 26,000 versus 229,000 expected. I think that's the extent of the macro data that we are getting today. Are we getting anything else later? We're getting home sales. All right, we'll get home sales and we'll see how the market reacts to those.

Opening eye, they are raising $100 billion officially $100 billion. Yes, we have PCE tomorrow. PCE we will see tomorrow. So, this is now becoming official. This is a final phase or this is finalizing the first phase. There's a second phase as well that we'll talk about of a new funding round that is likely to bring in more than a hundred billion dollars to OpenAI. The overall valuation could exceed $850 billion and strategic investors are going to be including Amazon, Soft Bank, Nvidia, and Microsoft. So, this is actually really bullish in my opinion. Again, the deal is not finalized yet and the details could change and the next phase of the deal is expected to close later and may bring the total fundraising amount substantially higher.

By the way, that next phase of funding, uh, there are speculations that they are going to include pension funds. They're are going to include different VCs. Like, it's not just going to be Amazon, Nvidia, and Microsoft, but it's going to be a lot of other different players that are going to be there. Sovereign wealth funds as well could be in phase two, which could lead to that higher than expected hundred billion dollar round of funding, which would imply the valuation at basically $850 billion to a trillion dollars.

Now, why does that matter? If you own AMD, if you own Oracle, if you own Broadcom, I mean, part of the reason those stocks have done well and part of the reason those stocks have also gone down after doing so well is because of OpenAI and the commitment that OpenAI has to give them more money. So, if OpenAI actually is able to raise 100 to 150 billion, very bullish, like very very bullish. The reason it's bullish is because at the end of the day, if OpenAI can actually have the money in their bank account to pay all the companies that they said they would pay pay money to. Uh, I mean the RPO for Microsoft, 50% of it is basically OpenAI. So I think this is good for the entire sector. At the end of the day, I know a lot of us don't love OpenAI. A lot of us probably aren't fans of Sam Alman, but I mean they need to raise the money and they need to be able to distribute that money against all the public companies that they've already made commitments to. So them having the money, actually being able to convince people somehow to give them $150 billion, that's important. Also, the fact that Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft are investing, yeah, like why would they keep investing if it was not a key player? That's a good point. Now, also, they're probably investing because they know OpenAI is going to buy a lot of compute, a lot of chips from them, etc. But, uh, it makes sense for that funding round to happen. And, uh, it's important that that's playing out as of last night.

Door Dash right there up about 9%. You got the S&P 500 relatively flat. Bitcoin trying to get back above 66 659 at the moment. What effect will open increasing valuation have on Palunteer? I don't think there's going to be any meaningful effect. At the end of the day, Palanteer is in the public markets. It's controlled by public market investors. It's controlled by public market algorithms. If OpenAI was in the public markets, uh, that would be a bit of a different dynamic for OpenAI stock. Same thing for anthropic. Honestly, I think those stocks would be down a lot if they were in the public markets, but they're not, right? And they don't have to deal with the insanity that is public market investors. So yeah, I don't think it has any meaningful impact on Pounder, but it does set the stage to to to get the market to understand that there is a precedent to value these companies at these multiples and more importantly than the valuation and you know people can then comp the valuation to other AI companies. What's more important to me, the only thing that matters about this is OpenAI has the cash and for so long people were doubting they wouldn't have the cash. Well, it looks like they're going to have the cash and if they have the cash, they can pay all the vendors and distributors and public companies that we invest in with that cash, which is good for public market shareholders. Um, because that money can then be distributed.

You also had this moment between Sam Alman and Daario at uh India where you have a lot of AI leaders here. A little bit of an awkward moment as everyone was raising their hand together. As you can see, Sam Alman and Daario are standing together and uh they wouldn't connect their hands. You can see right there, everyone's looking towards each other and uh yeah, they just put their hands up, but they don't connect their hands and put their hands up, which is kind of the point of, as you can see, they're they're not touching each other. I don't know why they had them sitting next to each other. I mean, these guys got beef. One of these guys spent $20 million advertising that the other guy's company is a piece of [ __ ] on the Super Bowl. So, they probably weren't going to hold hands or anything, but little awkward little awkward. But then again, you know, these are the most important foundation model companies of our time. So, they should have a little beef as they go back and forth. But yeah, that was a relatively awkward moment that you had today in uh in India. So regardless, it's good that OpenAI is raising money and hopefully OpenAI continues to raise money. As Chad says, it's like when my kids pay me back with the spending money I just gave them. Exactly. It's exactly what this funding round is going to be like for buying compute and chips. But for all of us that own any of these stocks that OpenAI promised they would pay, it's just uh given the money back that they already got from their investors. So that's what we got with OpenAI and you know hopefully that leads to a little bit more stabilization in the broader equity markets.

OSS is up 10% right now. They got a $10.5 million contract. So that's why that stock is up. I'm actually just seeing that for the first time right now. OSS just landed 10.5 million in new US Navy awards with a P8A Poseidon program. Again, OSS is one of those players out there. It's one of the only small caps I've liked this year. It's up 13% right now premarket. Um, primarily because edge comput is a real theme and these guys, this is the third contract they've gotten this year. The first one was in January, the second one was two weeks ago and then this is the third one and the first couple were prototype contracts. This one I don't know if it's a prototype or not. It doesn't look like a prototype, but uh it is one of those names that continues to get a lot more momentum in a specific thematic. Now again, it's a small cap, so you know, any piece of bad news could take this one down, but it's one of the it's one of the more small caps that I like that's in a sector that actually has tailwinds behind it. And then they keep executing and getting contracts. The real headline is one day you wake up, OSS is a billion dollar contract. The market cap's at 24 million. That's when the stock explodes. That might take a while to get to, but they're definitely putting in the framework to hopefully get to that point.

Figma right there, that's up 7%. Now, Figma was up 18% yesterday. They had a really good earnings and it kind of went against the SAS narrative of all the SAS companies being dead. Uh, but Figma right there is up 7%. Not really holding on to a ton of the gains. They guided for 30% growth. Did what they had to do. Had good operating margins. Again, they are a very uh non-mature company in the public sector. They just went public last year, but the stock got hit pretty bad over the past seven months. So, it's nice to see this one at least getting a little bit of momentum to the upside.

eBay also had good earnings. That's up 6%. They also acquired Depop from Etsy for 1.6 6 billion. Let's get into earnings right now and talk about some of the numbers that we have. Etsy right there is up 18%. Etsy was already up yesterday off that depot acquisition. They actually sold it for a loss, but I think the street was happy that they just finally got it off their sheets. Etsy did miss on revenue. Slight miss on revenue. They beat on EPS 92 cents versus 85 cents expected. Beat by 8% revenue 8.81 versus 8.84. So slight miss on revenue which is not too crazy. Etsy, again a consumer company, so it's important to see if people have disposable income to be buying the random things that people buy on Etsy. So at least they are beating on EPS. EPS is still down 12% year-over-year.

Then you had Walmart, which had two red days in a row this week. This is the company that has got most of the rotation outside of tech. It's one of those names that's out there. 74 cents versus 73 cents of VPS. They beat by 1%. 190 billion in revenue. They beat slightly on revenue. 190.6 versus 190.4 expected. revenues up 6% year-over-year. Again, you are paying 45 times for Walmart's earnings to grow revenue 6% and EPS 12% year-over-year. It's a bit ridiculous, but this is how the street is pricing in this company. The stock, I believe, is down in the pre-market. Fun fact about Walmart now based on these numbers, Amazon officially is doing more yearly revenue than Walmart. So, Amazon now has surpassed Walmart uh on a yearly revenue scale. Before Walmart used to do the most amount of revenue and now Amazon uh has passed it. So quite incredible. But that is what you've got right there. Walmart is uh the company that again has got a lot of attention. I think the stock is up about 20% year to date and it has been down over the past couple days. Now it's up about 15% year date.

On top of that you also had John Deere which is another company that has gotten a lot of momentum based on these tech rotations. They actually did a good job on earnings. They beat by 17% on EPS. 242 versus 206. Revenue 8 versus 7.5 billion. Revenue is up 20% year-over-year. EPS is down 24% year-over-year. So you have negative earnings growth on a company like John Deere. That stock is up 30% year-to date. It is up 6% in the pre-market. So once again, more of that rotation coming into some of those names that have continued not necessarily to grow, but have given investors a lot more safety and waiting versus, you know, being stuck in the endless capex cycle that is big tech.

You also had another one that I know a lot of people like, Lemonade crushed earnings beat by 26% on EPS, negative 29 cents versus negative 39 cents expected. EPS is up 30% year-over-year. Revenues up 53% year-over-year. 228 versus 218 million, they beat by 5%. Lemonade. I mean, they had a lot of buzz around them a month ago, especially with that potential Tesla FSD deal. El Elon even mentioned them publicly when he was talking about them. Lemonade is up 11% in the pre-market. Did fall from 99 to 65 over the past couple weeks. It has not been able to be a source of safety as every growth stock has gotten whacked pretty hard. But it is nice to see the stock get some momentum after good earnings because, you know, for the past couple weeks, stocks were not going up even if you had good earnings. And you know, now you're seeing that stocks are at least getting a little bit of momentum.

Door Dash being the most bullish yesterday. The fact that that stock was down almost 12% and it reversed. I guess they said some stuff on the call about orders and GMBB that was good. But it's also really nice in this environment to see. All right, it is possible to reverse even if you have an eh earnings and the market can still reward you. Nebas right there, that's down about 2% premarket. S&P 684 premarket. Robin Hood back down to 74 in the premarket. Grabs down 1%. Adobee's down half percent. AMD's up a little bit. Shopify, which had a great day yesterday, up 7%, could not break 125. That's also flat. Pre-market. Nvidia tried to break 190 yesterday. We're at 187. Nvidia earnings, that's what we're all waiting for next Wednesday. And I think that maybe could potentially be the end of this major tech sell off of Jensen really proves everybody that once again this capex thing is not fake. Again, Nvidia had that massive partnership with Meta last week. Meta right there or not last week like two days ago 643 on Meta was yesterday close 638 we have in the pre-market is Tesla down Tesla is indeed down as well 407 down about half% CLA also at earnings this stock is down 17% now this was a bit more predictable and I think it's very important to for everyone to look at CLA like seriously look at CLA as a case study for why investing in some of the hot IPOs you're interested in might not be the best idea. Clara was so supposed to go public in 2021. They missed their window and then for four years they spent time trying to figure out how to get investor confidence. They had to do a massive down round. I mean the company I think was valued at like 50 billion at some point. Then they had to obviously lower their valuation because of the 2022 rate height cycle. And then I think they kind of forced going public in 2025 because there wasn't really a lot of hype for Clora and the IPO was down 6% on the day. So, it's not like people, it wasn't like Figma where at least they got a a big pop before they ended up declining. Clara never got that big pop. And now you're seeing in the numbers that Clara put up, although these numbers weren't horrible, that the market's like, "No, we're not going to bet on buy now pay later as a thesis in an economy where people are struggling." And it kind of begs the question, you know, should CLA have even gone public in in the first place? So, you know, their metrics weren't horrible. It's just like at the end of the day I I don't know if investors are super excited to allocate money to this part of the economy especially when you know they feel that consumers are struggling.

Now again the the sort of pitch around Carvana is not that consumers are on the liability for the the the loans because lot 97% of the revenues is from merchants but nonetheless the perception of consumers we talked about credit card delinquencies yesterday and auto loan delinquencies subprime are at their highest level that we've ever seen. It's not the best necessarily for CLA. As you can see that stock right here getting hit. Now granted, I think they said something around guidance because the topline revenues and metrics were okay. And so I guess there was something a little bit deeper in the numbers that we'll go through that made the street upset. It's just I think a lot of these companies that want to go public, they might have one or two good quarters and then the market looks at them and was like, "Okay, hold on. What are we paying for?" And that's why you just want to be a little skeptical of buying some of these IPOs, even if they're hot, sexy names like a Discord or a Stripe if they can't necessarily justify why they deserve to get the valuation that they have. So that's what we have for all of the earnings today. I think that's pretty much most of them.

Figma right there, that's up another 6%. Carvana really nice recovery. This stock was dead in the water yesterday, down 23. The fact that it's only down seven. If this one ends up recovering, it would be quite nice to see. Uh, the reason Carvana was down is because their adjusted EBIT margins were down. Their margin per vehicle sold was also down against expectations by about 20 million and that's what got the street upset and that's why that stock took about a 24% hit.

Trump to host G20 summit in Miami on December 14th to December 15th. Interesting. Okay, I guess Miami will be the place where world leaders come together. Uh, Trump also will be giving a speech, if I'm not wrong, later today at 4 p.m. about the economy. Uh, it might be a little bit after 4 p.m., but there will be an economic speech by Mr. Trump today. Speaking of Trump, let's get into the conversation around Iran because that seems to be the biggest thing right now. By the way, the reason SMCI is up right now is because there's a report that uh SMCI is going to get the contract from Anthropic to deal with their server racks along with Google TPU demand. A boutique shop note says check suggests SMCI will split Anthropic TPU rack builds alongside another upward revision to Google TPU demand. That's why SMCI Supermarket is getting a little bit of a bid right there at 3.8% 80% um based on that potential purchase order coming in from Anthropic.

TripleB, thank you for the $200 super chat. Appreciate you being here, Mr. TripleB. Thank you for the $200 super chat. Thank you all for being here as well. Kim, thanks for the membership as well. Happy Lunar New Year to whom is celebrating a prosperous year of the horse ahead. Appreciate all that you do. AK media the best. Kimchi, thank you for being here as well. Happy Lunar New Year to everybody. The Chinese markets are closed this week. So that's another catalyst technically to the downside, right? Because there's a lot of money that's just not entering into the market this week from um China. So when that opens up next week, that could also inject a bit more liquidity into a lot of these stocks going up or down.

All right, Iran, what's happening here? So this is one of the more dicey situations we've seen in all of 2026. And I am not a geopolitical expert, but I'm just trying to figure out what the hell is going on because two days ago we had officials from the United States um from the United States administration and from the Iran foreign ministry saying, "Hey, things are going well and we're diplomatically getting to a point of agreement and we haven't agreed on everything, but we're ready to keep talking." And then yesterday you had the US pull out all of their troops from Syria potentially being ready to deploy to Iran. Then you had this headline this morning. US gathers the most air power in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion. And then you have CNN reporting came out that came out yesterday saying that um Trump and officials in the Trump administration are very intent on planning a strike this weekend on Iran, which is why you're seeing all the military jets start to crowd up in the region, but Trump has not given the final signal on if they will do it or not. And that is kind of the the core headline you're seeing right here. The US is prepared to strike Iran as early as this weekend, sourc say, but Trump has yet to make a final call.

I think this is another reason today could be a massive rugpull across the entire board. I mean, you got a lot of institution investors that probably don't want to hold long over the weekend if we are going to see some type of attack. The the broader question here is why, right? Like why exactly are we doing this for Iran? And and the sort of geopolitical politically correct answer is well, we don't want Iran to have a nuclear program. Having said that, a year ago we attacked their nuclear facilities for that very reason. And you know, maybe we didn't get rid of all the different facilities they were building in the nuclear uh sector, but you know, Trump said it was a successful attack and we set them back at least another decade. Okay. So, what do we need to do this time? Are are we getting new intelligence that they are so intent to build a nuclear weapon and they have made so much more progress and the first attack back in what was that May of 2025 barely worked and they're uh enriching uranium in a much more sophisticated way or which I think is is is a bigger question that a lot of people have have been speculating about do we want regime change given the protests that have been happening in Iran and obviously the um regime's you know objectively brutal response to that killing protesters etc. They almost publicly hanged people until Trump told them not to. So like you had a lot of bad things happen over the past month as there was a real chance for revolution in the region. But do we really want to get involved in trying to change the regime? That sounds like a very long process. I don't think we just go in there and capture Maduro and bring him back, etc. Like it's it's not going to be as simple of a process as what happened in Venezuela.

So foreign policy is changing in the United States. If we actually go in and plan an attack and put boots on the ground, I mean, this becomes a totally different dynamic for 2026. I don't know how the market's going to react to it. The initial reaction is probably going to be red. I think at the end of the day, it's not going to have that much of an impact like most geopolitical conflicts don't do, but if we're going to stay there for the next couple years and like legitimately try to change the region, I mean, I don't know how the market's going to interpret that. That is one of those things that people just have to pay attention to today because if those headlines heat up like yeah obviously the initial reaction is probably going to be a sell-off and you know that would be the thing that you point to to see if this ends up playing out. So time will tell but uh unfortunately Bitcoin is not really rallying on that geopolitical instability. In fact it's going down. Gold I think was down in the pre-market today. Gold yeah it's slightly down 497. Silver is slightly up. So nothing too crazy from there. If we do end up having some meaningful attack, I would imagine gold and silver catch a bid aggressively as uh you know the market will probably start to price in more geopolitical volatility.

Trump is about to go live participating in the board of peace event. Uh, I'll show what they're talking about when that board of peace event goes live. Now, what they're planning to do is make this a legit competitor to the United Nations and uh they're going to be hosting a sort of roundt today just like they do in the cabinet meetings around the board of peace. I don't know what exactly they're going to be talking about here, but they're going to have a bunch of different officials in that board of peace roundt and we'll get the headlines as they come in. But yeah, that's also what Trump will be doing live today. Uh, Kimchi, you did not have to do this, but thank you for the gifted 50 memberships. Deeply, deeply appreciated. Uh, bunch of you guys in the chat just got a gifted membership because of Kimchi. Uni Inspiration, Rogers, Benji, Breakfast Pizza, Robert Knight, Tugs, Landscaper, uh Chamu, Nquille, here for Alpha, Chris John, Dogemon, all of you guys got some memberships. Uh, Racker Harin, thank you Kimchi. Appreciate that. Uh, there is nothing you get for being a member of the channel. It just supports if you want to pay five bucks a month, but there's no like specific exclusive content or anything. So, appreciate giving the gifted memberships out and spreading around some of the some of the blessings.

All right, macro headlines. We got about 20 minutes until the market opens. Let's get into these headlines. I'm going to give you guys two conflicting pieces of data, but it is similar to what we've seen over the past couple of weeks. So, take a look at this. This is from Goldman Sachs and Citadel Securities. Retail participation has been unprecedented. The magnitude, persistence, and breadth of buying activity have materially exceeded prior peaks. Net notional on our platform has reached levels we have never observed before. This is coming from Citadel. Average daily net notional traded on our platform from January 2nd through February 13th is running far beyond any comparable period in history nearly 60% above last year and 25% above the prior peak in 2021. Retail is buying the freaking dip. We looked at a chart from JP Morgan two days ago that also signaled retail was buying the dip. I mean every piece of data that I'm looking at is showing me that retail is putting money into the market.

Having said that, hedge funds are not. This is from Bank of America. Clients dumped US equities last week with outflows reaching near historic levels. Outflows were the third highest since records began in 2008. $8.3 billion from the hedge funds left as per Bank of America survey on outflows last week. Now having said that JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs and um Oppenheimer data on US and Morgan Stanley on US prime brokerages which all these companies are like prime brokers right Robin Hood Schwab fidelity those are regular brokers and then your prime brokers that are handling all the hedge fund institutional flow are the JP Morgans Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley Bank of America the world they are not necessarily showing the same type of outflows that Bank of America is showing and there is I think it's important to mention this there is a divergence between Bank of America's institutional clients and some of the other prime prime brokers, institutional clients that are not showing like the third largest outflows in a single week since 2008. I don't know why it's so specific to Bank of America. Part of the reason could be that Bank of America is pretty bearish. I mean, their equity research in-house team, which the institutional investors tend to follow what the equity research guys of the prime broker that they're using is saying, um, is bearish. Haret is the guy who who runs their macro research. And, you know, we looked at his reports multiple times on the show and he's just like, I don't think there's going to be a rate cut. I think the labor market's bad. I think stocks are overpriced, yada yada. And so when all these prime broker clients are getting these emails every day from their prime brok brokers equity research team to say, "Hey, sell sell uh stocks then. Uh, yeah, like I mean they're going to probably sell some stocks." So there is a divergence here. Retail's buying, the hedge funds are selling, at least based on this data. And the question is going to become, you know, does retail end up continuing to buy the dip? Are the hedge funds actually dumping on retail? This happened back in April of last year and retail ended up being the winner. Hedge funds ended up selling into those lows. Time will tell, but we're going to have to see if this ends up playing out.

My friend just texted me. They said, "We're all huddled around in the airport watching you." Okay. So, hello to all the people in the airport that are uh watching me. Hopefully, you're getting some decent updates about what's going on in the world of the equity markets because right now we're trying to figure out if we have another Thursday of losing money. For those that are kind of new to the channel or kind of have just tuned into the markets over the past couple weeks, every Thursday for the past two weeks have been blood ugly. Like 2% down on Thursdays on the S&P. Like Thursdays have just not been fun for the past two weeks. And hopefully we get to resist that trend this week. But we're going to see in the next 15 minutes if that trend ends up uh ends up resisting.

We also have this headline right here that the UK is not really happy about what Trump is doing uh in Iran right here or potentially going to do in Iran. You have this headline saying um the UK looking to block Trump from using bases for strikes on Iran, which obviously would not be I mean this is not something Trump would be happy about. He would want cooperation from Western allies if they were going to actually strike Iran. But you're seeing some tension between other parts of the world saying we probably don't want you to do this. So we're going to have to see what happens with Iran. That's going to be another big headline that we're going to have to pay attention to over the next coming hours, literally today, because that could have an impact on how the markets react this Thursday.

Microsoft Insider finally bought some shares for the first time in 11 years. John Staten bought $2 million worth of shares. It was the largest insider buy on Microsoft in 11 years. You usually do not see the insiders of the Mac 7 actually buy their stock in any meaningful way. Microsoft is also down 15% year-to- date and it's been one of the worst years that Microsoft's had in the past five years as a start to the year. Microsoft just touching 400 in the pre-markets. So, I'm happy to see that some of the insiders are buying. Hopefully, the insiders and a lot of other companies continue to buy. Actually, we did have Elon, right? Didn't Elon buy a billion of stock at 385 on Tesla? So, yeah, I guess that was the largest max 7 buy from an insider we saw. But at least you're seeing the Microsoft guys be like, "Okay, this is getting kind of stupid." like we're already rich. We probably don't need to buy more stock, but like if you're going to give it to us this cheap, then yeah, we're gonna take advantage of that. And maybe that can also help when we come to Microsoft.

Another headline here that kind of got people off in the wrong direction. Blue Owl permanently is halting redemptions at a fund aimed at retail investors. Aka, if you put your money into this fund, they're getting ready to offer it to retail and they're not letting you take your money out of that fund because they want to make sure they have enough liquidity in that fund to be able to serve retail investors. The only thing you can do when you see a headline like this as a retail investor, I think that is relatively just looking at the world in an objective way, is not invest in some of these funds. Like if you're getting pitched a fund by Blue Owl, which is a private credit firm that is saying, "Hey, you know, you get access to all these amazing private deals. It's incredible, but we're not going to let anyone take their money out of it." You just kind of avoid, you know, you you don't have I I think there is such an affinity for retail to feel like I need to be in these private companies. It's like, bro, the public companies which you have access to all their audited financials that are down year to date, I think are much better riskrewards. Maybe maybe they actually end up underperforming like a stripe or whatever, but you get to sleep at night knowing that you can actually have instant liquidity. You're not going to be forced to not be able to sell and you have access to all the financials. Whereas even in these private venture funds, you don't have access to any of the financials even if you have access to the exposure of the stock in the private markets. So once again, I do think retail is being used as exit liquidity when it comes to these IPOs. And it's just one of those things where if you want to get access, you have to be really sure that uh you should have access because if not then, you know, might just end up not being the best.

Also, we had a survey that came out this morning, more bears than bulls on AI. This is one of the most important artificial intelligence investor surveys. Um, for the past couple weeks, it's definitely been more bearish than bullish. Again, I don't think you get a market crash when we have everyone thinking that there's going to be a market crash. And so, this is good, right? You want investors doubting the the market momentum even if that market momentum has been to the downside and you want people to continue to be bearish when things are getting bad because that should be able to strike somewhat of a bottom versus people getting super bullish when things get bad because then there just might be more pain to have. And so it's at least nice to see that you're seeing a bit more bearishness here at these levels. Again, sentiment from what I've seen anecdotally is the most bearish like in at least five six months. I mean I don't think people were this bearish even in October when things were getting deleveraged out of crypto and uh seems like that level of bearishness is not necessarily slowing down.

Feds Kashkari he says the labor market has remained pretty resilient. It is softer but still decent to pretty good. Kashkari also says the Fed is close on both mandates and rates are pretty close to neutral. Yeah, again the Fed minutes yesterday hinting at a rate hike was kind of insane and uh the fact that they're arguing that rates are not restrictive enough. Kashkari is at least saying it's neutral was kind of wild to hear about yesterday. But that's how the Fed is thinking about this and hopefully the Fed has a better understanding of this when we get more data. Again, PCE tomorrow is going to be really really important. Hopefully that PCE actually comes in in line with expectations. We need to beat 2.9%. If we beat 2.9% we're going to be in a good spot. If not, well, we might have a little bit more pain to deal with tomorrow.

Top fan, thank you for the $50 super chat. That is very kind. Good morning. OSS got another contract. Thanks for covering the stock. Yeah, we covered it about 20 minutes ago. Good deal for them. And again, volatile name, small cap, but in the right theme. And if they can rack Bing up contracts, then you know this it's an exciting name. It's a company that theoretically I think could be a billion dollar company, $24 million company right now. But they've got to prove out the prototype on a lot of these contracts. Up about 12.4% in the premarket. Thank you again for the super chat as well.

What is HIMS doing in the pre-market? Hims is up 1.96. 1584 closed yesterday was down 2.64. SoFi almost got to 20. It's at 1938 in the pre-market. Robin Hood's down about 1% as well. Meta's down 1%. Ondos, which had a 10% day yesterday, that's down half a percent. Ethereum 1925 below 2,000. Bitcoin's getting hit. Appven got above 400. That's down a little bit in the pre-market. I mean, we did have a really good day yesterday across a lot of growth names. So, them taking a breather today would not be unexpected. It's just how bad do we need to take a breather given this is the third Thursday in a row where last two Thursdays haven't been kind. And so, I think we're going to have to keep an eye on what it looks like.

Trade web partners with KHI to produce or to boost prediction markets. KHI is racking up tons and tons of contracts back and forth. I mean again the CFTC being on their side over the past couple days was also pretty bullish for KHI. Uh Lemonade again that had a good earnings. You're seeing that get some momentum right there. Lemonade is green. That's up 12% in the pre-market and that's getting a bit a bit more momentum. Uh, let's pull up a couple of other things that we have right here. About 10 minutes until the market opens. Let's also do the red or green poll in the chat. Again, this openai hundred billion stage of funding. This was a very very important piece of news that happened last if this is finalized in the coming days. I think this coinciding with Nvidia's earnings might lead to well might lead to potentially the bottoming out of this large cap tech rotation into value stocks if people start realizing that the money is there.

Opening eye, they are raising $100 billion officially $100 billion. Yes, we have PCE tomorrow. PCE we will see tomorrow. So, this is now becoming official. This is a final phase or this is finalizing the first phase. There's a second phase as well that we'll talk about of a new funding round that is likely to bring in more than a hundred billion dollars to OpenAI. The overall valuation could exceed $850 billion and strategic investors are going to be including Amazon, Soft Bank, Nvidia, and Microsoft. So, this is actually really bullish in my opinion. Again, the deal is not finalized yet and the details could change and the next phase of the deal is expected to close later and may bring the total fundraising amount substantially higher.

By the way, that next phase of funding, uh, there are speculations that they are going to include pension funds. They're are going to include different VCs. Like, it's not just going to be Amazon, Nvidia, and Microsoft, but it's going to be a lot of other different players that are going to be there. Sovereign wealth funds as well could be in phase two, which could lead to that higher than expected hundred billion dollar round of funding, which would imply the valuation at basically $850 billion to a trillion dollars.

Now, why does that matter? If you own AMD, if you own Oracle, if you own Broadcom, I mean, part of the reason those stocks have done well and part of the reason those stocks have also gone down after doing so well is because of OpenAI and the commitment that OpenAI has to give them more money. So, if OpenAI actually is able to raise 100 to 150 billion, very bullish, like very very bullish. The reason it's bullish is because at the end of the day, if OpenAI can actually have the money in their bank account to pay all the companies that they said they would pay pay money to. Uh, I mean the RPO for Microsoft, 50% of it is basically OpenAI. So I think this is good for the entire sector. At the end of the day, I know a lot of us don't love OpenAI. A lot of us probably aren't fans of Sam Alman, but I mean they need to raise the money and they need to be able to distribute that money against all the public companies that they've already made commitments to. So them having the money, actually being able to convince people somehow to give them $150 billion, that's important. Also, the fact that Nvidia, Amazon, and Microsoft are investing, yeah, like why would they keep investing if it was not a key player? That's a good point. Now, also, they're probably investing because they know OpenAI is going to buy a lot of compute, a lot of chips from them, etc. But, uh, it makes sense for that funding round to happen. And, uh, it's important that that's playing out as of last night.

Speak to Bloomberg's Anal Jewelers in Hong Kong. Really interesting and about to hear Microsoft president talk about their partnership with OpenAI. as it pertains to funding. Uh, who do we know is investing in in this latest round? >> Yeah. Well, it's it's names we've actually been reporting so far. So, there's there's Microsoft, as we just heard there, Brad Smith really detailing how perhaps none of the technology that we see today wouldn't have existed if OpenAI and Microsoft hadn't come together in the first instance. So, they're one of the investors. Uh, but the primary one actually is shaping up to be Amazon in this funding round. They're looking to put in around $50 billion. That's according to our sources, although of course these amounts could all change. Uh, Soft Bank as well looking to invest as much as $30 billion and Nvidia looking to invest around $20 billion. So that's what we're hearing from people that are close to the matter. There are some some T's and C's I guess to be aware of. So what we're understanding again is is is that Amazon their commitment could also include OpenAI uh using more of their chips. We do know that Amazon has been working to build out its chip chip capabilities essentially. So an interesting point there and an interesting one as well because we've been hearing Nvidia might have been cooling on the deal, but it does seem like uh OpenAI is certainly trying to expand its network here.

>> And that 50 billion from Amazon's really important. They did file that mixed shelf offering which means Amazon can um raise 50 billion whenever they want by just dumping shares on the on the public markets which is another reason I think Amazon stock has been depressed and if you're an Amazon shareholder you kind of just got to deal with it because until that changes you know Amazon's going to be in one of those situations where they're going to be diluting and spending more money on capex which means more negative free cash flow however that money if they get it back from openi in terms of compute you know that helps AWS grow at the levels that it needs to grow at.

We have some Board of Peace content. It's not live yet, but here's one of the first videos. Um, Guns and Roses is playing in the background. There's Trump and Vance. There's your board of peace together. You got Rubio there. You got Kushner there. You've got some obvious other foreign government.

officials there. Again, I think it cost a billion dollars to be part of the Board of Peace as well. And this is Trump's version of competing with the uh United Nations apparently. So, yeah, I uh I I don't know exactly how this is going to play out, but yeah, board of peace. That's that's that's what you got. It's quite a time to be covering US politics right now. It's quite a time to be seeing what's happening. I wonder what the round table's going to look like later today as well. Um, because obviously there's going to be a lot more commentary from Trump on what the point of this board of pieces is. He kind of started it like three weeks ago and just said, "Hey, I'm doing this." And everyone's like, "Okay, I guess we're doing this. I guess we are doing this."

Four minutes until the market opens. OSS up 11%, Tesla flat, chlorin unfortunately down 15%, Nvidia flat, Amazon flat, Google, well they're not flat, they're all down about half percent. Hopefully that doesn't continue. PayPal down a little bit. Service Now the software names have not been able to catch a bid. But again, one day up, one day down. That's been the theme of this market, unfortunately for for like basically the past three weeks. And although February historically sucks, has been one of those Februaries where a lot of growth stocks have just been getting hit back and forth and you're seeing more of this pain.

Also, Prince Andrew got arrested today. That was also a crazy headline that happened about five hours ago. Um, he got arrested in uh in relationship to the Epstein connection. So, this is the first high-profile arrest we've seen around the Epstein allegations. We haven't seen anyone in the United States get arrested for this. Nobody's has even been investigated for this in the United States, but in the UK early this morning, they they officially arrested Prince Andrew. Now, is anything going to come of this given how powerful the guy is and given how many connections he has in the UK? I don't know. But the fact that they made that arrest is uh actually kind of crazy that it did happen. So that is what we have going on there.

Robin Hood getting a ugly decline right there 1.5% as Bitcoin continues to get hit. Where is Palenteer? We hit 140 yesterday. Palanteer 132. That's down 2%. The SAS names continue to struggle. Rocket Lab got to 75 yesterday. Rocket Lab right back down to 72. One day up, one day down. Wayfair is down 14%. Oh boy, that one's tanking. They did have earnings today, right? Let's see. Did they crush earnings? Wayfair they Wow, they beat earnings by 23%. 85 cents versus 69 cents expected. Revenue they beat by 1%. I guess the guidance I guess the guidance is uh not necessarily kind to Wayfair. I think I got one of the tables in my apartment from Wayfair. They probably said something around tariffs. Q4 capped off a tremendous year for Wayfair with revenue growing 7.8% year-over-year. We expect our topline growth and flow to adjusted to be bedrock for our story in 2026. Yeah, CEO doesn't looks like he's not blaming anything. The Cheesecake Factory CEO blamed the weather yesterday. He was like because of bad weather, some of our sales growth was down. Cheesecake Factory now kind of recovering from yesterday. Doesn't look like the Ware Ware guys blaming anything in particular, but that stock getting hit by about 15%.

Is oil pricing up? We got two minutes until we open. Oil is up another 2%. Wow. Brent crude above 70 a barrel. Look, this is the worst thing that could happen for Trump right now in the context of affordability because oil prices and as a result gas prices for US consumers. We're reaching record lows and they're probably still at historic lows compared to 2024 where, you know, gas was like five bucks a gallon. But I mean, these oil prices keep spiking up. Those gas prices are going to spike up as well. So seeing that come down would be important. But again, these Iranian headlines are really creating more momentum for gas prices to be up. XLE has been great this year. Energy sector, it's up another 1% the pre-market. Exxon, Chevron, Oxy, they beat earnings by 82% yesterday. So the oil companies have done phenomenal. And if oil prices keep going up, that might continue to be the case.

All right, folks. Here we go. The last two Thursdays have been ugly. Hopefully this Thursday is different. This Thursday, February 19th, 9:30 a.m. Thank everybody for being here. The stock market is now open. Wake your ass up. Let's get into it. Robin Hood opens down 1.45%. Palunteer down 2.65%. Rocket Lab down 1.5%. Wayf Farer down 14.7%. SoFi down 1.64%. SoFi is getting hit. SoFi is getting hit on the day. SMCI that's up 6% based on that headline around anthropic. Microsoft is 400. OSS up 7.4%. It was up 15. So giving away a lot of the pump, but still up 7%. Tesla 405. That's down from 415 unfortunately. Tesla right there 405. That's down about 1.4%. Meta losing 640 at 639. Walmart goes green. John Deere goes really green. Etsy also green. Etsy is up too. Figma's Oh, wow. Oh, that Figma move is disgusting. That Figma move. This stock was $29 yesterday after earnings. This stock is about to go red after being up 20%. That is absolutely disgusting. I mean, if you bought in over the past 12 hours on their earnings, it's it got to I mean, either you got to sell or you got a bag hold at this point. Wow. Figma right there, $24.30, barely up 10 cents after those earnings. S&P goes down a third of a percent. Apple's down. Dutch Bros is down 2%. Grab is down half a percent. Adobe actually goes green. So, Adobe being a little bit of safety today. Nvidia obviously goes red, down about two bucks, 18673. Amazon goes red. Google goes red. Taiwan Semiconductor goes red. Shopify goes red. Salesforce is red by another 1.3%. PaloAlto continues the selloff down 1.7. That is red. Hims, I think, did an acquisition today. Still goes red. Palunteer goes red. Robin Hood obviously goes red. SoFi looks like it's about to go below $19. Goodness gracious. 1915. That's down 2%. ARM goes red. Western Digital goes red. Amcor goes red. Rich Techch Robotics goes red. IBM goes red.

Let's look at the earnings from yesterday. Uh Door Dash holding on to a 3% move. That's actually quite impressive given the earnings. eBay's up two. Figma's barely up one. Cheesecake Factory is dumping down about 4%. Oxy's up 9%. When's the last time Oxy was up 9% in a day? Well, Buffett's got to be happy about that one. Look at that. Oxy 9%. Where's Exxon? Exxon's up 1%. Chevron probably up as well right here. Chevron up about 1%. Oxy just crushing it. I mean they did beat earnings by 82% but still it's a low beta name. The fact that that's running is incredible. So if right there 1910 it looks like they're take I mean this thing was $19.90 yesterday. None of these names can just catch a bid and hold on to it. Broadcom 330 that's uh red. Where's our data center plays? Nebius is up 102 slightly. Irene trying to go green but that's down 3%. And then what's the other one? Coreweave that 9473 that's down 1% as well. Applied digital again Nvidia sold out of all their applied digital which has kind of really hurt the stock. Stocks down another 4% after being down 10% yesterday as well. CLA's got to be getting destroyed, right? CLA down 20%. Dude, I'm telling you, if Stripe and Discord and Enthropic were public, they would be dealing with the same thing. The reason they get to hold on to their valuations is because it's private. This public market is brutal. There is no way Stripe and Discord would get some type of fancy premium when companies much bigger than them are getting smacked, which which which makes me scared about when they go public. Like, are they going to be able to actually meaningfully put up the numbers and survive in the public markets? And even if they do put up the Figma put up amazing numbers. There's no reason it deserves to lose the entirety of the move. Look at that candle right there. 30 cents away from going red. But it but it is it's losing the entirety of the move. Nabius goes red. Uh OSS again we talked about that in the morning. Really good contract that's up 17%. Uh again small cap deserves to get some more momentum. Still under that 1050 range that it was at for about a month. So it has created more of a dip opportunity. Adobe just went red and AMD looks like it's about to go red. Carvana or Carvana, I should say, is that tanking? That was down 20. Now it's down eight. So, it's not as bad as it was before, but it still is down um on the day. Chewy got an outperform by Raymond James. $28 price target. Chewy is up 3%. I'm looking at upgrades and downgrades. T-Mobile got an upgrade as well to 240. T-Mobile's at 216. Remember, Soft Bank sold out of their T-Mobile and their Nvidia to invest in OpenAI and that's why you're seeing some of those names get hit. Spy low day 683. Let's see if we lose 683 right here. I mean, the market giveth, the market taketh pretty much every other day at this point. 68370 on spy. Wow, Bitcoin really getting hit. Bitcoin really getting hit here. There she is. 65,688. Are we going to continue seeing some pain or what's happening here with Bitcoin? That's obviously not the best for Micro Strategy. That's down 2.3% as well.

Any possibility of a reversal today? You know, it's one of those things where it is really hard to judge if if things reverse or if thing like just like if if we were up, you know, 1% right now. It'd be really hard to judge if it goes the opposite direction. And it did yesterday. We ended out green, but but by 3:30, like it was almost like a roller coaster. Like you go all the way up and you came all the way back down and you slightly ended green. I mean, maybe we slightly end flat today and it it's like the S&P never even had any volatility, which is actually what happened over the past couple of weeks on many days. S&P just immediately lost 683. Look at that. 68250. So, I don't know if we could reverse, but there's no meaningful headline, I think, for us to go down today outside of the Iran stuff. That could get worse if we have more headlines or that could flip if Trump says he's not planning to strike them. Uh, but I don't know if he would actually be that explicit about it. Nvidia 186 looks like she wants to lose 185. Shopify 120.82. Salesforce that's down to silver just went red as well. Pinterest continues to fall off a cliff. The cues potentially going red. Bitcoin ETFs recorded a daily outflow of 107 million with weekly outflows exceeding 647 million. Wow. People are selling out of their crypto. They are selling out of their crypto. Lemonade loses everything. Lemonade has lost everything. 6705. I mean, it's still up a dollar, but it was up like $10. Lemonade getting hit. SMCI is pumping off of rumor that they are going to be handling the server racks for Anthropic. Um, and that's why that's getting a 6% move right here, particularly around the TPUs with Google. The VIX is probably up, right? Where is the VIX? The VIX is, yeah, up about 7%. up about 7%. Walmart reversal, we went green, right? Yeah, we went green. It was red pre-market and it makes sense that Walmart went green because growth is selling off. So market's going back to Walmart. Um, wow. Kashkari, crypto is utterly useless. Kashkari, not clear what a stable coin can do beyond what Venmo and similar services already offer. Dude, whenever you add the word utterly to something, it makes it sound like a bigger insult. It's like, you are utterly incompetent. It's like, first of all, incompetent already is a is a pretty insulting word. Then when you add utterly to it, there's something about that word. Crypto is utterly useless. Bitcoin down a thousand bucks. He has a point. Not going to lie. That word needs to be used more when you're insulting people. Utterly use. By the way, if you ever want to call someone stupid, my my my debate coach taught me this back when I was in high school. The way to call someone stupid in a politically correct way is say that you are intellectually mediocre. Intellectually mediocre. That is a that is a that is a professional way to say you're an absolute idiot. You are intellectually mediocre. So for anyone who wants to uh insult someone, that's I think one of your best ways.

So right here, 1920, down 1.6, Tesla 405. Tesla's not giving up 400. Tesla's been a champ at holding 400. Although two Thursdays ago it did dip at 395, but since then it's been holding it. On goes green. Look at that. On goes green. You are utterly mediocre. Yes, exactly. That is the way to do it. BMR, that's down 1.5. The Q's down half a percent. GameStop's down. Open Doors down too. They've got earnings after the bell. Service Now continues to fall. Verizon, of course, it's green because when the market crashes, we buy Verizon and Walmart. That's what we do. Um, Bitcoin, there's a little green candle above 65 661. SPY spy little green candle as well. 683. We got to see a little bit more evidence of these names holding on. And pounder trying to get to 133 got to 131 today. Robin trying to get it back above 74 and then SoFi trying to get back above 1920. Microsoft still below 400. This name has just been stuck within 395 to 405 as a range. SanDisk. Yeah. How's the memory names doing? SanDisk still holding 600 even after the dilution. It's pretty damn impressive for SanDisk and Micron to be holding their momentum. Micron was at 420 yesterday. 423. Uh Google getting a bounce. Are we Google 301? That is indeed a bounce. I will get quotes soon from what Trump is saying at this board of peace thing. Um, oh, I already have one of these quotes. It looks like Yeah, I'll be getting clips pretty soon from this, but I have one clip already. Looks like he started off his discussion with praising the Dow Jones. 40 45,000. It would be amazing achievement over four years. Well, we hit 50,000 in the first year and we hit 7,000 which was actually tougher to do according to the Wall Street geniuses. We hit 7,000 in the first year. They said it could take four or five years. They'd be very happy. It would have been a great job. We did it in one. All right. Does Dow 50 is uh something the administration really loves to talk about? Verizon right there 2%. Walmart up 1.8, SMCI getting a little bit of a bid up 5%. S&P, she tried to get a green candle. It went right back red. It was not able to hold on to that momentum. Um, when he says Wall Street geniuses, he's talking about you. Oh my gosh, dude. Again, we talked about it yesterday. I don't know if the average American cares that the Dow Jones is at 50,000. We don't even care that it's at. We, you know, we care more about the S&P getting through 7,000. But the point is, stock market investors care. I don't think the average American, quite frankly, I don't think a lot of Americans know what the Dow Jones is. Like, I think if you ask 10 of your friends, you know what the Dow Jones is, they would be like, "What the hell are you talking about?" Like, it is what it is. Like, most people don't pay attention to that stuff. So, you know, this brings up the argument around affordability in the midterms. If the average American feels their wages are going down, they don't give a [ __ ] about the Dow Jones hitting 50,000. Pinterest right there, that's down half a percent. PaloAlto still down 2%. Crowd Strike 416 at least that's going great. Wow. Bookings down 8%. These guys are doing a stock split 25 to1. They had a relatively good earnings. I don't know if they deserve to be down 8% right here, but they are getting hit uh hit on the day.

All right, we got another Trump clip as he introduces more about the Board of Peace. >> Important. I believe it's the most consequential board. Certainly in terms of power and in terms of prestige, there's never been anything close because these are the greatest world leaders. Almost everybody's accepted and the ones that haven't will be. Some are playing a little cute. It doesn't work. You can't play cute with me. But they're playing a little bit, but uh they're all they're all joining. Everybody would most of them very immediately. Uh >> all right, here's another one. >> Doesn't work. You can't play cute with me, but they're playing a little bit, but uh they're all they're all joining. Everybody would most of them very immediately. Uh a few that we really don't want because they're trouble. Take care of them. But uh this is the most prestigious board ever put together. You know, I've seen some great corporate work. You can't play cute. >> All right. So, I guess Trump is trying to basically convince people right now that this board of peace is going to be a legitimate organization. And uh you know, time will tell if that ends up playing out. Google right there, 301, that's still red. Spy getting a candle. 684. Bitcoin as well getting a candle. VIX is down uh 3% actually. VIX went from up seven to down four. We're getting a little bit of movement for the bulls. Let's see. 15 minutes in. Can we kind of have a chance of reversing some of this stuff? Maybe. S&P 68460. Micro Strategy almost going green. Bitcoin potentially going green on the day. It's about half a percent away. Meta 642. You got a green candle right there. This market plays with our emotions so much. I mean, it's becoming kind of toxic, not going to lie. Like, it's legit becoming toxic. Apple pumping. AMD, that one can't get above 200. Nvidia, she's trying. She got above 185, but still stuck at 18630. Uh, it's so difficult to trade right now. Yeah, I mean the trend is just not your friend because there is no trend. OSS loses. No, sorry that's up 2.3%. So still 1135. That's holding on to a lot of momentum. And is at three really good days in a row um for now. And that stock was almost below $8 at one point two days ago. They got another Trump clip where he's talking about getting more cash, I guess. Let's see this. >> This This building was built for peace and nobody knew what to name it. And then Marco named it after me. I had nothing to do with it. I swear I didn't. I sw I had no idea. They said there's a surprise coming. I I didn't know that surprise. I thought they were going to give me a lot of money or something. Maybe cash. Can always use some extra cash. But I came and they stopped the beautiful beast. I got out very safely, I'm sure, and looked up and there it said Donald J. Trump on the building. And when I say uh that that was had nothing to do, nobody believes it and that's okay. But I appreciated it. That was Marco and JD and a group got together and they did that and I just thought it was very nice. >> They named the inaugural board of peace building after him. Okay, I guess that's what we're doing with uh the board a piece. All right, Walmart up 2%. Verizon up 2%. Google still down. S&P, can we make the move? Can we make the move? We need to break 68450. We need to break it. We need to break it. Let's see if we can. Kashkari Worsh is well qualified to be the Fed chair. Kashkari says Worsh has been outspoken in offering ideas about the Fed. Looking forward to the coming discussion. Okay, so Kashkari seems to be a fan of Kevin Worsh. You know, honestly, this entire selloff realistically started when Kevin Worsh was nominated. Like I mean that that day it tanked gold, it tanked silver. Uh equities started falling off a cliff. I mean realistically hopefully we can get Kashkari to be interpreted positively by the street but for now that's still not exactly happening. 68410 right there on the S&P 500. Should I trim some some Schwab dividend fund? It's up 15% year to date. you know, the the So, this is SCHD, which pays what, a 3.3% dividend, up 15% this year. I feel like people buy this as a source of safety to literally hold forever. Uh, now, obviously, if you think the rotation is going to go back to value, this thing's probably going to not be up 15 or go back to growth. This thing's not going to be up 15% year to date. But from my understanding, it's a vehicle that people buy to collect the dividend, and they don't really care that much about the capital appreciation of the asset itself. Because realistically, people aren't buying this to have capital appreciation. They're buying it for the dividend. So, I mean, if it's up a lot this year, way more than you expected. Yeah, it doesn't hurt to take some off the table and potentially allocate into growth names that you think are severely undervalued. But, uh, the dividend names have been doing I mean, you know, Verizon had one of the best yields in the entire market a month ago. Now, it's below 6%, but it was at almost 6.9%. That yield has gone down on their dividend because the stock has gone up 20%. So, does it make sense to trim some Verizon and kind of reallocate? Yeah, I don't think that's crazy. Unless Meta goes to 400 and then Verizon's going to go to 60, right? Like, if we really get a growth selloff, even worse than we've seen, the dividend names are going to be there for a while. So, I mean, look, if you bought it, personally, I don't have this, but if I bought it, I I I think this is a buy and hold. You just keep it forever, collect the dividend, and over time, this one appreciates. Unless you really think there are some growth names that deserve more attention. Pounder right there almost going green 134. Robined back above 75 as well. I sold Verizon yesterday. Yeah. I mean again Verizon has not had a run like this to start the year since 2006. So when we say it's historic like for 17 years this has not happened. Verizon going up 20 and names like Verizon that are up so much year to date. Obviously, the market's scared of capex and they're hiding out in Verizon and Schwab Dividend Fund and Coca-Cola. Coke's up freaking 20% year to date. I don't know if that happens as easily over the coming years, but it is happening this year. GameStop, that's down half a percent. PayPal, that's up point 27. Why aren't you buying Microsoft? Well, I did buy Microsoft two weeks ago. Um, I think the sentiment around SAS still needs to change up a little bit. So, I mean, look, Microsoft has not become a massive position for me in any sense, but I think I I bought around 413, 413, 413, 415. Um, I don't know if Microsoft is possible of a of a multiple rerating as quickly as what we saw in Google. I actually think that should happen at Amazon before it happens to Microsoft, but I agree Microsoft's cheap here. Like, I don't think in a couple years people are going to regret Microsoft. Although Microsoft historically has not been the best Mac 7 performer, but it's trading at 22 times earnings next year. Like they announce anything that increases the sentiment around Microsoft, for example, OpenAI going public and Microsoft owning 30%. I mean, if Open AI goes public at a trillion and Microsoft owns 27% of that, that's 270 billion that they have in gains from that IPO and they only put in about 20 billion um in investments. So, I mean, I like Microsoft here. just I think we have to see when this SAS Armageddon kind of turns the opposite direction. But whether it's Microsoft or Amazon or Meta, I don't think you can go wrong with either of them. Although I do think Meta was going to outperform by the end of the year just because they've guided for the highest type of growth. Salesforce right there 184 as that one is also down. Appven is flying. Are we getting some green? Yep. Appleven up 2%. That's getting a little bit more momentum. New York's robo taxi plan pulled in setback to Whimo expansion. All right, it looks like Whimo potentially struggling a little bit in New York City. I I used FSD a couple weeks ago in New York and it was pretty good. I mean, there were some moments where I had to take over the uh the car, but it wasn't horrible. I don't know if it's ready ready to literally be by itself inside the city, but it wasn't uh the worst thing in the world. Um, Upstart is that moving? They also had a decent earnings. That's down 2.5. Pounder almost at 135. Verizon still up. Robin Hood 7550. That goes from 73 to 7550. So that flipped green on the day. How about SoFi? Even SoFi, it was almost below 19. Now back to 1940 as that's getting some love. Carvana. Wow, dude. Carvana was below 300 yesterday. It is $10 away from breaking green. I think this stock is kind of indestructible. Like my goodness, every time it takes a 20 30% hit, which has done multiple times over the past couple of years with short reports and bad earnings, buyers step in. Like people are obsessed with this company. Carvana right there barely down now. Barely down. SMCI that goes green 7.8. People were bragging about Carvana dropping. Yeah, I mean this is I mean Jim Chenos is the most famous short on this one. People uh people do not like this stock and they've been short this name for a while, but you had to cover pretty quickly to even make any profit on the short yesterday as this thing is now recovering. Carvana down about 2.7%. VG, are we getting a move? VG, look at that 4%. That's green. ESTs that is flat but almost green. Rocket Lab green folks, we're getting some green candles. They are coming in. This is what the market does every day. Teases us back and forth, but we are seeing some green. Tessy, are we about to go green? Tesla is about to go green as well. Very close. What do you think about Applied Digital? I really don't know a lot about them. I don't think it's the best thing in the world for Nvidia to dump their entire position. Like they didn't touch their Nebus or Core Reef position. So I don't know why they had to dump the applied digital position. But my favorite data center name continues to be Nebus. I just really think that's the most diversified business out there that has the best growth prospects. But again, Nebus right up 3%. A lot of these data center names run with each other. So although I really do like Nebius, I think if Nebius makes a big move, Applied Digital, Cipher, Iran, all of them should be moving as well. Iran right there 4130. Uh Rivian, what are we seeing on Rivian? This is at 1564, down 3%. I didn't see anything from Rivian's earnings that were impressive. I don't know why the hell that stock got to $18 after those earnings. Like they said they're going to deliver 60,000 cars this year. Okay, congrats. Like again, maybe someone's deeper into Rivian, you know, uh, earnings than me and understands the company better, but it makes sense that the stock's right back down to fit. Like, what did they possibly say that got? If people are upset about Tesla's delivery numbers, you're telling me you're excited about Rivian's numbers. So, kind of confusing why the stock even got as big of a move as it got.

A couple more clips. I don't know the context on these clips, so let's watch them together from this board of peace thing. I love it. His majesty, King Hammad bin Essa Al- Khalifa of Bahin. Bahrain, thank you. Thank you. Where are you? Where are you? He's so rich he can sit there. He can sit wherever the hell he wants. You know, he could sit up in the corner. He could sit up top. You might take a piece of this building, Marco. You'll take 25% of the building for about six billion. Thank you. And you've been very generous also. We appreciate it. >> Okay, here's another clip. >> This This building was built for peace and nobody knew what to name it. And then Marco named it after me. I had no >> That was the Trump one. Let me pull up the other one here. Uh, this one. >> Okay, this one's weird. The caption on this is already kind of weird. >> It's always nice to be young and handsome. Doesn't mean we have to like you. I don't like young handsome men. Women like men know I don't have any interest. Good. That's right. That's right. Thank you very much. You're doing a great job, too. >> Oh, boy. Oh, boy. Oh, boy. Well, I mean, Tesla trying to go green. Trying to go green. Yeah, I don't think given the political environment, you want to mention young and women together. That's probably not the smartest move from Trump right there, but all right. SoFi 1947 Robinood goes green. 7603 7603. Nisus exploding baby. 10610. There you go. Nebas getting a nice green day right there. Up 10630. Spy. Are we going green? We're going green on Spy Aid. Do you think Snap is worth a shot down here? SPY is about to go green. Snap got a move to 490 yesterday. It's at 484. Dude, I just don't trust this company. Now, do I think their subscription revenue means they have a chance to outperform on expectations? Yes. And could I see the stock getting back to six bucks? Yeah. But man, this company for 10 years has done nothing to instill shareholder confidence. So, I just think there's better spots to put capital, especially if it's like long-term. If it's a trade, that's a different question. Long-term money, I would not trust in uh in Snapchat. I'd rather buy Meta. It's a better social media company, growing faster than Snapchat, and quite frankly, it's cheaper than Snapchat. Trades at 18 times earnings. So, I think Meta is a a better bet, even if it's uh a more legacy company. SPY right there, 68540. SPY, let's see. We got 80 cents to go green. We got 80 cents to go green. Nebas is up 4%. And this is the fir when's the last time we saw 105 on Nebius. January 16th, folks. It has been over a month since we even saw 106. Look at that. It's been a while. They crushed earnings. They definitely deserve a move right here, but it's been some time before we see this thing get bit up. It's also one of the only data center names getting bit up. IN is down. Applied Digital is down. Coreweave is down. or core. We've just barely turned green. Clean Spark, which I don't know why people were investing in this as an AI HBC play, but this one has been hit pretty bad as well. Same thing with Wolf, which is better than Clean Spark, but that's down 1.7%. So, Nebby is actually diverging from all the other data center names. Yeah, breaking 110 on Neb would be incredible. Would be absolutely incredible. VIX is still up. That is correct. Still up 3%. Um, which is if we can get that to collapse red, then I think we really go green. Hims just went green. XLE is up 1.4. Cheesecake Factory still down. Wayfair down 10. It was down 14. Meta's flat. Etsy's up 10. Broadcom's up 1%. eBay getting some love. Door Dash back up four. Bloom Energy almost green. I mean, you're seeing a lot of names that were out of favor. Try to get some more momentum. Apploving. Yep. This one has been having a nice little move. This one got to 359. Now back up to 410. Oracle, are we going green on Oracle? Oracle. Yeah, going green on Oracle right here. Always nice to see the data center names get some excitement. Uh we got some data on the top 10 hedge funds of 202 and how much money they made. Take a look at this. Looks like Steve Cohen made the most. 3.4 billion is what he made. Then you had David Ter at 3.2. Ken Griffin only made $2.4 billion. Bill Aman a measly1 billion. Uh but these are your top 10 highest earners. Hedge fund managers. The top 10 of them grossed 22 billion. The black you're seeing is gains on the personal investment and then the blue is the share of fund performance fees. Dude, being a hedge fund manager is crazy. Bill Aman, by the way, I think he underperformed the S&P 500 last year, which nothing against Bill Aman, incredible, one of the greatest investors of all time, but he made a billion dollars in fees and personal gains and he underperformed the S&P or I think he matched the S&P, but you know, it wasn't like he was up 40%, the S&P was up 16%. So, it's kind of crazy once you get into that ecosystem where you're managing money and people trust you and you get to continue managing their money. Like, as long as you somewhat do as good as the benchmark, I mean, you just get a lot of money to be able to manage it. It's quite incredible. Rivian right there, that's down three. Nebia is still moving up. S&P, I mean, she's really trying to not lose 685. If we can make a break right there to 686, we go green for the day. But we have to actually make move. Is Clara really down 25%. Oh my goodness. 24% on CLA. Yeah, I think I think that can happen to a lot of the companies that go public this year after their first or second quarter and the market's just like, yeah, this thing was never meant to go public. So, I think we just got to be really careful about these IPOs. I mean, Clar should have gone public. That's it. They shouldn't have gone public. Like, they're not ready to survive in the public markets. And I know they were private for so long, but like also the the we raised rates that really affects Clarin's business, especially in the context of the consumer. And the implications of that take years to weather through, even if they want to get liquidity for investors. The worst thing is the people that invested in the 2021 round didn't even get any real liquidity because it was a down round when they went public. So, they would have to shell their sh sell their shares at a 50% loss. And now they're down again 25% on those shares. Core weave 9530 as that one continues to try to fight green. Robin trying to go for 76. Verizon still up. Crowd strike 421. Pound here just hit 135. Oh, housing data. We should be getting housing data like right now, right? New home sales. Uh, yes. pending homes. Let's pull this up. Let's see what we've got here on home sales. All right, here we go. >> Unsigned contracts during the month. So, that's people out shopping when the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage dropped a bit midmon and then came back to where it started. So, not a huge change. That said, rates in January were significantly lower than they were a year ago. and that did nothing to juice sales. The bigger impact in January may have been severe winter weather toward the end of the month. And if you look regionally, month-tomonth, we did see declines in the Northeast and South where that weather impacted most and gains in the Midwest and West. The Realtor's chief economist, Lawrence Yun, noted in the release that lower rates today mean about 5 a.5 million borrowers would qualify today for a mortgage that they wouldn't have qualified for a year ago at those higher rates. We are not however seeing that show up in mortgage demand from buyers. Sarah. >> Okay, Diana, thank you very much. Another data point today that was out that I wanted to focus on is the jobless claims number comes out every week, but this was some good news. Fewer Americans than expected and certainly than last week filing for our unemployment claims. We got a number that was 206,000 for the week and that was down from the previous week when claims were up. We always watch when claims are up. Is that the start of a trend? Well, this looks like good news that they've come back down because the prior month the prior week was 229,000 and that suggests that maybe that weather had to do with it. You know, the cold winter weather kind of kept people out of the of the of the business in terms of getting jobs. That's good. You know, we continue to have this debate, low firings, which we got in the jobless claims. Good. >> We'll go back to this in a second, but I think Trump is talking about Iran right now. So, let's go to that. couldn't be done. For 3,000 years, they've been talking about Middle East. They said it couldn't be done. And uh you look at what's happened in Gaza. And one of the keys to it was when we took those beautiful, magnificent, we just ordered 22 more of them. Uh updated model. The B2 bombers are incredible. I never understood the B2 bomber. I'd watch it's a wing. And I've never quite understood that, Johnny. I'd look at it. I said it was beautiful, but what does it do? It carries very big bombs and uh it went into Iran and it totally decimated the nuclear nuclear potential and when it did when it decimated that uh all of a sudden we had peace in the Middle East because nobody there was a black cloud hanging over the Middle East and if that >> okay so Trump is talking about we decimated their nuclear program we have peace in the Middle East maybe that means we're not going to strike this weekend. I mean, all the headlines are we're getting ready to strike. The president right here is saying we have peace. Obviously, if we strike Iran this weekend, it's it's not going to be peaceful. So, I mean, is he hinting that we're not actually going to take military action? >> Wasn't done. Uh, that cloud would have been there. And countries like Saudi Arabia, countries like Qatar, countries like nobody could have signed. You would have had that threat. Nobody could have had you couldn't have had peace in the Middle East. So now we may have to take it a step further or we may not. Maybe we're going to make a deal. You're going to be you're going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days. But >> that right there that that's confirming a lot of the reporting yesterday. You're going to find out over the next 10 days >> in the Middle East. So now we may have to take it a step further or we may not. Maybe we're going to make a deal with you're going to be you're going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days. >> Either we're going to take it a step further or maybe not. You're going to find out in the next 10 days. All right. So he he I mean he's leaving that military option open right there with those comments. >> But this meeting today is proof with determined leadership nothing. >> I think that's the most important thing we can get from that entire press conference. That right there, the quote around what he's thinking about Iran given all the reporting. I mean he seems to be legitimizing the reports that the administration will make a decision soon and that decision could very much involve military action which would probably create a you know less peace in the short term in the Middle East. S&P could not break 685 unfortunately or he's going to announce some type of deal. I guess in the next week and a half we'll have a better understanding of that. Rivian that's down three. S&P 684. VG's up four. SMCI is up five, guys. We are not breaking the levels we need to break to go green on the day. Like, we're just not. We got to get six at least 68570 overcome. And we're getting rejected pretty easily at 68550 right there. Walmart, are we still green? Walmart up 1.6. What about Domino's? Domino's, that one is also still green. Again, uh Buffett added a lot more to that. Palanter slightly green. Trump will be going to China in April as well, which is in a couple months. Broadcom actually getting a nice move. Usually doesn't pump as easily into the 340s. It's trying right there. Meta's flat at 640. John Deere, wow, 10%. I mean, there you go. John Deere Walmart winning on the day. Let's pull up the heat map again. John Deere with negative growth year-over-year getting a a multiple on their stock at 40 times earnings. My goodness, dude. My goodness. Here's the heat map. Everything's pretty much red except defensives, industrials, energy, obviously utilities, a little bit of tech, but the majority of tech, financials, and healthcare are red, which is why the S&P is not really getting any support in any meaningful way today. Not in any meaningful way. Oil being up 10% in two days tells us everything. Yeah. I mean, look, if the oil markets are pricing in that there's definitely going to be an attack, uh, maybe the attack doesn't happen. But the prices on oils, at least to an extent, signifies there's a better chance than not, than having an attack. So, we're still going to have to see how the market prices a lot of that in. Here's an al here's a stat I thought today that was also really interesting. Take a look at this. this uh piece of data. You know, the a consistent theme on the show that we've been talking about for a while is the K-shaped economy. And what we don't talk about that often is the the the the age demographics that play a role in that K-shaped economy. Americans aged 55 plus now represent 45% of all US consumer spending. That's the highest in 28 years. This is data from Moody's. This is double the 28% seen in the early 2000s. By comparison, those aged 54 and younger are just down to 54.7% from 72% in 2000. So the majority of spending in this country, or at least the divergence between the amount of spending that's happening if you're above 55 versus if you're below 55, is now at the widest gap that we've seen basically in 25 years. 73.7% of all US wealth is held by those over 55, up from 56.2% in 2000. So you have a 20% increase in 26 years of the amount of US wealth that is concentrated and a majority of that is being concentrated into people that are aged 55 and older. So age has been one of the biggest catalysts for your net worth at least in the United States over the past 26 years which also leads to that whole wealth transfer argument because eventually those people pass away and they pass their money down. But, you know, if you're young in the United States, it's got to be income. It's got to be your own business or it's got to be investing that's fueling more more of your your net worth. Nvidia, are we about to go grain? It's called compounding. Well, that's true. That is the magic of getting older and having stuff compound. 18775 18775 Nvidia trying let's check how much resistance is at 188 how much Nvidia needs to be bought to move on 188 we are looking at it's only 22,000 shares not even a lot and if we get some grain we should be able to to break through Palanteer 135. CLA still down 20 25%. Apple is not participating. Apple did go green yesterday from 259 to 263. Let's get more coverage on that jobs data. But Apple, one of the Mac 7s, that's down today. >> Good news, but also low hirings, which hasn't was has been bad news. And what is that reflective of? What is that what is that telling us? Is it telling us that they that businesses are more cautious or is it just a reflection of immigration and the fact that we've cut back on undocumented immigrants in a really big way by hundreds of thousands in the last year? San Francisco Fed had a really interesting paper that I just wanted to highlight that was out this week. They looked by geography and by industry and they found nearly one for one casual effect of unauthorized immigration worker flows on employment growth. US employment growth is likely to face continued downward pressure as long as the ongoing declines in unauthorized immigrant worker flows continues. In other words, they found that it was basically the fact that we're not seeing as much hiring was all a function of the fact that we don't see as many people. >> I don't know if you saw Philly Fed employment uh today negative for the first time since June. That's kind of weird, especially in the manufacturing space. I've seen some estimates where break evens might go negative on on monthly jobs growth. I mean maybe look we it if you have this supply issue there's no signs of a letup on supply and this this study dove into industries as well and they noticed that it was particularly acute in manufacturing and construction and I bring up in manufacturing because that has been a s a weak spot in the in the jobs reports it's something you know that we say oh he you know President Trump wanted to bring tariffs to to boost manufacturing jobs I mean that they do note

That there was a big immigration flow into manufacturing jobs and the fact that we just don't have those workers could be a big explanation for why we're seeing weakness when it comes to hiring and manufacturing. You know, this was debated in the Fed meeting in January. We got the minutes yesterday afternoon and there was a whole section about what the Fed participants said about jobs. So, most of them noted that the recent data readings such as those for unemployment, layoffs, and job openings suggested labor market conditions may be stabilizing after a period of gradual cooling. Okay, they were feeling good about it. But some participants pointed to supply factors such as lower net immigration as contributing to the low pace of job gain. So they're exactly having this conversation that we are having. Is it because of immigration? Is it a supply issue or is it a demand issue? Because the minutes also reflected, Carl, that there were some participants that were hearing from their business contacts also that they were more cautious on hiring and that they're trying to process AI. So it's kind of all in the mix.

Yeah. Kind of did move the market intraday yesterday on the release of those minutes. We are getting some breaking news on Apple this morning and for that we'll turn to Steve Kovak. Hey Steve.

The state of West Virginia is suing Apple over allegations that it has not done enough to mitigate child sexual abuse material on iCloud. Now Apple, according to these allegations in this lawsuit, Apple chose not to implement a tool to root out CSAM on iCloud or Apple devices that use iCloud photo backups. Might remember this was a huge controversy back in 2021 and 2022. Apple had the technology to scan everyone's iCloud account for these images. But in 2022, they abandoned the project. A lot of privacy concerns and uproar around this. People just didn't want Apple kind of scanning their photos even if for this kind of material. Now, Apple has a response to this. They point to a feature that prevents sharing inappropriate photos with children, saying, quote, "At Apple, protecting the safety and privacy of our users, especially children, is central to what we do. We are innovating every day to combat ever evolving threats and maintain the safest, most trusted platform for kids." Maybe that's why Apple's taking a hit. You got that headline right there. Getting sued by West Virginia here. Apple 263 down about 0.4%. S&P again just not able to get any green real momentum. A lot of the momentum is still in Domino's, Walmart, John Deere, those names. The growth stocks kind of went green, but I mean Google's up a penny. You know, it's not really able to hold it. Micron's trying to go green. Bitcoin at least above 66, but it looks like that's the headline on Apple. Is Nvidia green? Oh, wow. Nvidia literally just went green by about 2 cents. All right, here we go. You got some real divergence here. Palantir also going green. S&P still barely able to hold above 685. That's weird. You would think all three of those go green together. Okay, so you're starting to see some of the AI names heat up. AppLovin, that's been green. Oracle, that's been green. S&P needs to try to break through. I mean, yeah, usually when Nvidia goes up and the S&P doesn't go up, it tends to be a little bit of a fake bounce, but again, there was zero resistance at 188, so it was easy for it to break through, but the S&P has got to follow now. Nio, are we green? Wow. 106.50. I mean, if we break 107, that'd be very, very nice to see.

AppLovin is planning its own social network. AppLovin is preparing to build a social networking platform after the mobile advertising company's failed bid to buy TikTok outside of China last year. Okay, I don't know much about AppLovin, but I don't know if that's a social media company. They're a great B2B advertising tech company. Building a social network's a little harder. I don't know if that's the best idea.

We got some more Trump clips. This is him saying he doesn't care about the Nobel Peace Prize.

"Do you get the word of peace? Oh, I thought when I saw this note, I'm excited to announce that Norway I thought they were going to say that they're giving me the Nobel Prize. Oh, this is less exciting. Oh, says, 'I'm excited to announce that Norway.' And I'm saying, 'Oh, great. I'm getting the Nobel Prize. Finally. Finally, they got it right.' But I don't care. I don't care about Nobel Prize. I care about saving lives. Just so you understand, we play and we all, you know, do what we have to do. I only have one thing. I don't want to see people killed from parts of the world that are very far away from the United States. And if I have an ability to turn off wars, I want to use that ability because it's people. Millions of people. It's like the prime minister said, 25 million people maybe. And that's a small number compared to what it could have been if you really think about it, right?"

Okay, the next clip based on the caption I'm reading, you just have some really weird things that Trump is saying here.

"Mostly working with the United Nations. In fact, I'm going to speak to the secretary general in a little while. He's a good man. And I've had a good relationship other than in my last speech they did turn off my teleprompter. I got up there, my teleprompter didn't work. I'm sitting in front of all of you people and more. I had no teleprompter. I knew I was in trouble because I'm walking up. You know the teleprompter's over. I had the most beautiful speech, right? I was all set to knock him dead. First I had an escalator that stopped. You know that it's going up. Boom. It's lucky my movie star first lady was in front of me because I put my hand on a certain part of her body and I was able to stop my fall otherwise because she had no trouble. I said, 'Boy, that was a very sharp stop, Johnny.' I Well, it's just a little weird, dude. It's It's just a a little weird. And then here's another one where once again he mentions he mentions young women for a second time."

"Respect a lot of respect for your country. We'll also want to express my gratitude to Vice President JD Vance who is a fantastic man. He's a fantastic talent. He was a great student. They went to one school. He graduated. You know, most people, if you watch some of the people that were at the event in Munich, they didn't graduate quickly from college. They had everything they could do. There was one young attractive woman. She was unable to answer questions. And she didn't do so well like JD did in college. JD graduated in a four and a half year college in two years. And then he went to Yale and he graduated at the top."

All right, that's what you got. That's what you got from Trump. I I think he's still live by the I'm getting all these clips, but I think the guy is still talking. Yeah, he's still live right now. Oh, wow. Sam Altman, we got an interview. Let's see what Mr. Altman is saying. Let's go to this. Let's go to this.

"It's just been incredible to watch. And it's not just CHP. Codex, it's the fastest growing Codex market in the world now, too. Um, but the energy here and what people are building is remarkable."

"Great. And in terms of the potential of this market, I know you've got the Go plan here, a low-cost plan. How do you plan to sort of monetize people in this market as well as you continue to expand here?"

"Uh, Go is one thing that we're we really designed with India in mind as a market that clearly needed it. Um, and the enterprise adoption I think will be another very strong angle."

"In terms of the infrastructure front. You have the partnership with Tata as well on the data center. Also wanted to get your take on what the plans are for Stargate in the India market. Um, when is that happening? I think we had the IT minister this week speaking saying it's happening. Can you give us some updates on?"

"We are working as hard and as fast as we can to build sufficient AI infrastructure in India to serve the market here."

All right, we'll try to get some more clips on that. The audio is not the best there. But yeah, Sam Altman always sounds like he needs to clear his throat, dude. Every time this guy talks, he's like talking under his breath and it's like, dude, just speak so we can hear what you're saying. You kind of manage one of the most important companies on the world right here. So, it's hard to kind of get everything he's saying, but look, OpenAI is getting the funding, which is the most important, and that hopefully is going to lead to more momentum. CoreWeave, that's flat. Iron, that's down 1.3. Snap is flat. Walmart 2%. And then Nvidia loses 188 right after it got it. I mean, Nvidia is not holding on to anything, and neither is the Spy. This is not any type of positive momentum yet in any meaningful way. Not yet.

Let's go back to Trump. He's live. Let's see what he's saying.

"The likes of which I don't think anybody's seen before. And thank you all very much. It's a great honor. I'm going to ask J. D. Vance to come up and say a few words. Thank you very much."

Okay. Just ended. Just ended. So there you go. I think the most important thing we got from what he said was around Iran. Obviously you had a couple comments that were a bit weird, but the Iran stuff is the most important thing for us to understand as investors. And it continues to seem like there's still a chance for an attack. It continues to seem like over the next 10 days, I mean, we're gonna have better details. And quite I mean, let's let's do a poll right there in the chat. My gut tells me we're gonna attack. Now, I don't think Trump necessarily wants to because he knows that that's going to lead to a lot more tensions, but why would they be doing everything that they're doing if they weren't getting ready for any meaningful attack? And I put the poll in the chat. Yeah, I I I I think my gut says, yeah, I really hope I'm wrong. I really do hope I'm wrong, but they're not loading up the highest military number of recruits since 2003 in the Middle East, unless they were going to do something. Maybe they're just posturing, you know, maybe all the tankers moving to the Middle East. I think it's happening. Yeah. Like, why would they be doing that? Just to just to flex their muscles or like No. I like and I think Iran knows that as well which is why they're probably going to have to get things ready to see how this plays out. Meta right here is 643 and Etsy is up 9.3%. We are making Iran the 51st state. Goodness gracious, dude. Palantir 135. 135.60. Nvidia really making a move today, folks. Look at that. 5%. It did touch 107 for a little bit. SanDisk as well. 625. That continues to be up 4% as well. All right. S&P 685. This is the fifth attempt. It's going for it. Can we actually break through? Can we actually break through right here? SoFi. SoFi 19.30. It's just a show of force. It helps with negotiation. I hope you're right. Based on all the reporting we've seen, many sources are saying that it's not just a show of force, but I really hope that's what it is. And, you know, it wouldn't be unlike Trump to try to hype something up and then not follow through. I mean, he's done that so many times. So, uh, it would be on brand for him to hype it up and for it to just end up being a show of force, but I guess time will tell. The Dow is still 50. That's all that matters. Yes, dude. Is the Dow even 50 at this point? Where's the freaking Dow? Oh, we're at 495. I mean, I think we'll get back to 50, but we are not there right now. I have 115 calls on Nio expiring the 6th of March. Well, those should be up today at least, which is good. Nio again, 106. S&P barely moving above 684. Robinhood stuck at 75. Ryzen is up 2%. Micron down 1.5. OSS nice day 18% move. Again, that contract was pretty decent for them. Heat map still pretty red. Microsoft's the only one trying to go green out of the big tech names. Um, we'll see what quotes we get from JD if we get anything soon. Into it, AppLovin and Workday, some of the hardest hit names in the software space. Into it, this one, I know a lot of people think it's most prone to getting disrupted. Now below $400. This thing was at 650 a while ago. 381. That's down 2.8%. I'm a former Air Force vet. This is not a show of force. I am not a former Air Force vet, but uh thank you for your service. I also agree with you just based on what I've read over the past 24 hours, it feels a little bit more serious than just a show of force, especially because again, if we're bringing the Polarkit data into this, like there have been many $100,000 bets that Trump was going to strike soon. All those bets have gone to zero, so those people have lost money. I would imagine if you're willing to bet $100,000 that he's going to strike, there are some sources that people have, even if the timing didn't work out, that's letting them know it's more serious than not. So, I guess we're going to see. CleanSpark, that's flat. CoreWeave, that's still down. And I, that's down 1.8%. What do we have in the poll? 65% of you say yes. 65% of you say yes. Right we're here. Yeah. You don't gamble with force like that. As a Walmart employee, this is not a show of force. Oh my gosh, dude. Shout out to Walmart. Best stock-based compensation in the game, baby. Look at that. Stocks up 20%. You think that Meta SBC is anything? Nope. At Walmart SBC is what matters. Is the VIX still 20? Yeah, the VIX. I mean, a way to hedge against the strike is to buy the VIX because it probably spikes if we actually announce an attack. VIX right there still up 5%. That's another reason S&P can't break above 685. Look at that. We're losing 684 right now. Need that VIX to come down. Need it to come down. What's wrong with SoFi? Honestly, I've been asking this question all year. I cannot believe this thing really. Now, it's not a SoFi thing. It's all a fintech that got absolutely destroyed. Robinhood, Affirm, Coinbase, everything. But man, I did not think it would go below 20. Then again, I think people probably didn't think Hood would go below 90. So, it's like every one of these names just clobbered. I do think SoFi end of year is not at $19. It's just holding through it is what you got to deal with. Now, do we get the tariff decision tomorrow? We get a decision tomorrow in opinion. I don't know if it's going to be the tariff one, but I mean, we're going to have to see. Hopefully, it is. Hi, thanks for the super chat. I bought some Grab. I use it every day here while in Bali. The super app thesis for Southeast Asia is real and the price is pretty good right now. How do you feel about Grab these days? I feel the same. I mean, my entire thesis on it has not changed. It's just the stock has been stuck. And so, unfortunately, I think management is going to have to really do something to change the momentum around the stock. And, you know, this is kind of what I was talking about last week. As a CEO, your job is to make the stock go higher. That's it. And if the stock's been stagnating for years, like you could have a growth story, you could have a good argument for the overall qualitative aspect about the business. You need to get the stock to go up. And I don't know if they are as incentivized right now to get the stock to go higher. They're definitely growing the business. 40% CAGR on EBITDA, 20% on revenue, which is probably going to beat those numbers this year, but the market's not recognizing it. And so now it's up to the management to get the market to recognize it. This is why communication is very important as a CEO. So, it's one of those things that we're going to have to see. Institutional float continues to be strong at 85%. I just don't think Grab's in the right thematics in terms of AI, quantum, nuclear, etc. But I kind of like that. That's why I think it's actually more undervalued. Every analyst continues to have it at 7, 8 bucks. It's just the market is not recognizing that. And unfortunately, when growth stocks are selling off, I don't know if the market will continue to recognize that. CoreWeave that is flat. OSS up 21%. There you go. OSS now making a bigger move back above $10. Yeah, the Grab thesis continues to be a strong thesis. I actually like it better than Sea Limited right here. And I think that's why Howard Mark sold out of Sea Limited and kept his Grab. Like if you want to play Southeast Asia, I do think Grab is the way to do it. It's just the stock has been stuck for a while now. The next three days for the Supreme Court's opinions, by the way, is the 20th, the 24th, and the 25th. So, either we're going to get the answer on the 20th, which is tomorrow, or Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Wednesday, we also have Nvidia earnings. So, it'd be kind of crazy if the Supreme Court reverses the tariffs on Wednesday, and then we have Nvidia report, but time will tell. Redcat right there, that's up 9%. And also up a good chunk today. Got the drone names that are going higher. Sounds like you're not as hype on Grab. It's less about not being as hype. It's more so just about at this point there's not much you can do, right? You've analyzed the company as much as you can analyze and now it's up to the market to do what the market needs to do. Especially because, you know, it's not like Palantir when it was $6 where there was literally 15 different things to talk about every single day. Again, that's why when people say, "What's the next Palantir?" I'm like, "I don't know." And I don't think there's ever going to be a company that has that much media attention around it and that many intricate parts to dissect while it was down 80%. So at some point there's not much more you can do. You're like, "All right, this is the business and you the street's going to recognize it or not." It really it really I mean even Hood didn't have that many dynamics to it when it was at six bucks. Like there was a story but there wasn't like something to talk about every day 10 times a day. Palantir and Tesla I think are the only names. And I guess maybe you put Nvidia in there from four years ago when CHGT launched that like there's just unlimited amounts of content to talk about because there's just so many things that are rooted in the story and you know you could put Rocket Lab in there as well. I think Rocket Lab to a lesser extent but you know when that stock was $4 there was a lot of stuff to analyze about their launch vehicles. So 19.30, Walmart 2%, S&P finally breaking 685 here. 685.50. Okay, this is it. This is where she's got to go for it. VIX just dropped heavy, by the way. VIX almost below 20. This is it. We're either doing it now or we're not. We are either doing it now or not. Either the VIX goes below 20 and the S&P breaks 686 or we play this game of charades for the next five hours as well. This is it. This is it. Are we doing it? Are we doing it? S&P is trying. Look at that. 685.70. It's so crazy because let's say we do it. We just go right back down. We did it for two minutes and now we're right back down. I mean, this thing is becoming this thing is becoming comical at this point. 685.70. SanDisk up four. Is gold the new Bitcoin? I mean, I don't think anyone can argue with that. Price action-wise, yeah, it's definitely done what Bitcoin has been trying to do. Although, I do agree with Tom Lee yesterday on that podcast we watched together. I'm not saying gold is topped. I'm just saying like, dude, the risk-reward on gold feels a little aggressive in a short time frame, whereas the risk-reward on Bitcoin maybe feels like it's not. Then again, if Bitcoin is utterly useless as per Kashkari today, then maybe the risk-reward is in the favor of gold. Thoughts on Nintendo? You know, this stock Nintendo's always been an interesting company. Uh they had one of their best years last year because the entire Japanese market, well, they I mean they they went from 19 to 25 and then after August, they started getting hit. Wow. It's down 18% this year. The Nikkei is up a lot, so that's surprising that Nintendo went the opposite direction. Yeah, I don't know enough about them. I know the Switch 2 was definitely something that got a lot of people excited, but it's uh it's not been one of those heavy heavy analyzed companies as a massive opportunity. And right there up to Rocket Lab breaking through 76. S&P is not doing it, folks. VIX is spiking once again. Not like spiking, but it's it's definitely not it's definitely not giving out, which is what we needed to do. Uh, Nio though 107. This is a real divergence with Nio compared to all the other data center names. And I don't know what's the reason for that today. It's almost like the market woke up. I mean, they did get a Compass Point upgrade last week, right, to 150 or not last week, yesterday. So, I do really really like this name compared to the other data center plays. And it's nice to see some real divergence. Like it's nice to not be in the same bucket as I ran and Cipher, which Nio has been in basically for the past three months at this point. Um, yeah, all price targets are 150 to 200. Agreed. But given the volatility of Nio too, this thing could fall back to 100 so quickly. That's why the premiums on the options are amazing. AppLovin that is at 410. Oh yeah, Rocket Lab does have earnings next week. What do we think guys? Do we think Rocket Lab pumps on earnings? Do we do we Let's do a poll in the chat. Do we actually Because it is already pumped heavy this year. Now it's also down heavy from from January highs. Rocket Lab earnings pump or dump? Do we think it's going to be like Robinhood where it just, you know, takes a dump after? I mean, because Robinhood pumped a little bit in January, then it fell towards the end of January, then it got dumped on earnings. I mean, so far that's exactly what's happened with Rocket Lab, except if they have earnings, maybe they don't have the actual dump, which would be basically 15% down. If it goes in line with that, their stock prices are actually very similar. Obviously, the market caps are different. Rocket Lab right there, 76.40. I still think Rocket Lab's up year to date, though. Rocket Lab. And the other reason I'm comparing them is because again, they they both trade at premium multiples. Um, even after the drop, Rocket Lab is flat year to date. Wow. At one point, Rocket Lab was up almost 40% this year. Now, it's up 0.59%. So, this earnings will determine if it's green or red for the year. Robinhood died though. Yeah, exactly. So, I'm just I wonder if the earnings are good enough on Rocket Lab to not let it completely get annihilated here. Now, they're not going to be profitable in this quarter. That's a couple quarters away. Neutron updates, I guess, are going to be important. I don't know what the street's pricing in though to keep that alive. They definitely overpriced in Robinhood, which is why we missed on revenue. Nvidia goes green. Palantir goes green. S&P very close again to breaking 685.50, but it needs to do it now. Kind of needs to do it. Everything died to be fair though. So did Amazon and Microsoft. Yeah. I mean, well, that that's another reason I'm bringing up why I'm bringing up Rocket Lab. Like Rocket Lab trades at a very high premium compared to Amazon and Microsoft. And if Amazon and Microsoft are dead and Rocket Lab's not dead yet, is this the next one to fall? It's the same for every other is Nvidia the next month on like or can Nvidia hold [ __ ] up. Like next week's going to be really important to see if that plays on. The SpaceX IPO I think is the the get out of jail free card though for Rocket Lab. Like that every time I think the street sells it off too hard they remember, wait a second, this is how we play SpaceX. Because I think so many institutional investors are going to want to play proxies to SpaceX. even if it's just as a trade and they know the IPO is going to, you know, get to 1.5, 2 trillion. I don't see how that doesn't pump the entire space industry. It feels like that can easily happen. I think SpaceX is going to go to three trillion. Okay. I don't know if I'm that bullish on I think it can definitely have a chance to go to two. They're IPOing at 1.25. I think they get to two, three trillion. That would be $3 trillion company doing 15 billion in revenue. That would be a little aggressive, but maybe they got there. Um, do you get a dollar on $92 covered calls expiring next week on Rocket Lab? See, that's the other thing about this name, the volatility on the options. The same with Nio is just incredible. But the reason the option volatility is so high is because people genuinely think this thing could get to 92 by next week. I mean, so as a premium name, if he builds a large position in this, it's done very well. Spy. All right, this is it. Like, we have to do it. VIX just fell below 20. VIX just fell below 20. It's now or never, Mr. Spy. This has got to happen here. We either go green or we stay flat. This has got to be it. 686. That's what we need. VIX right below 20. So trying on us up four. So VIX again still below 20. Oh, do we have this guy? No. Hold on. Yeah, we've got Kashkari. Okay, so we have some more of his comments. See if we can break through 686 at the same time.

"Really topical and I saw this yesterday. Kevin Hassett on CNBC offered some criticism of a New York Fed study on tariffs. Do you have thoughts you wanted to share about that?"

"Sure. You know, I mentioned all 12 reserve banks have independent research departments that are always studying the economy. And sometimes people put out results that point one way and another reserve bank will put out results that point the other way. This is how we're trying to get better and learn about the economy by having this breadth of opinions. I thought that Director Hassett's comments though, you know, he went on and he said that the he disagreed with the results and the researchers should be punished or they should be disciplined for their conclusions. Um, I think this is just another step to try to compromise the Fed's independence. Over the last year, we've seen multiple attempts to try to compromise the Fed's independence, including in December when the Department of Justice served a subpoena to the Board of Governors over some building expenses. Um, it's really about monetary policy that, you know, we are doing our very best to make the best assessment of the economy based on data and analysis. If you look all around the world, every advanced economy in the world has an independent central bank. The reason they have an independent central bank is because politicians of conservative and liberal would rather have monetary policy that serves their political needs in the moment. And what economies all around the world have learned is that monetary policy decisions, the people are better off over the long run if monetary policy is based on data and analysis, not on short-term political gains. And I know that my colleagues at the Fed and I are committed to continuing to make the best decisions we can."

I mean, that's fine, but you've got a lot of people arguing the Fed itself has been incredibly political. So Kashkari can say that question is if the Fed actually ends up following through and looking at the data. S&P by the way she really is just not giving us what we need here folks. Like you have individual stocks that are giving some momentum. Amcor getting a nice 2% move right there. Nvidia still holding green, but it's barely. I mean Nvidia's up two cents. It's like it it can't make a move above 188 until the S&P cooperates, until the indices cooperate. The Qs as well, they're trying to go green, but they need Nvidia to go green. Nvidia needs the S&P to go green. Problem is, nothing's helping the S&P. Financials are down. Healthcare is down. Some of these smaller stocks that are up don't contribute much to the S&P. Apple's down. Meta is flat. Where's Amazon today? 204 and then AMD at least that's a little green right now again from the 13Fs you saw a lot of the super investors buy big tech the top 10 names for those that missed it were Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Visa, Google, Nvidia, TSM, Rocket and Live Nation so basically 80% of that is big tech and it's the safe thing to do but unless they also sold in January, they're all bag holding with everybody else. Like if you're a super investor who bought heavy into big tech in December, which is as of Q4, and all those stocks are down, I mean, everyone is down on them. So unless there was some massive rotation out of them in January, which we'll find out in the next 45 days, they are still betting those stocks too. Well, Dixie is up. The Dixie is yeah 97.88 that is up. Where is the 10-year? Do we get some yields to come down? We're at almost below four yesterday. Right back to 4.1 today. We need that to come down. Lemonade, how did that do post earnings? Was up 15. Wow. Lemonade down five. Could not hold on to anything. Nvidia once again going red. Yeah, Dixie still trying to make a pump. Nio at least still holding 107.60. And also, dude, amazing three days for this stock. Almost fell below 8. Now it's at 11.50. Back-to-back days of really strong green. Now another 5% move right here. This one has been a monster. Has been pretty incredible. Tesla as well. I think we just went green on Tessie. We just went green on Tessie. 411. Craft Heinz CEO. I think he's spinning around the company. Let's see what he has to say right here.

"I mean, clearly a lot's changed since you you walked into this job just a few weeks ago to split the company. What is your latest thinking?"

"Yes, sir. Great to be with you. Thanks for having me. You know, when I joined the company, I was energized about the future separation of the business. I thought the industrial logic was very sound. But when I came into the business, I also said I reserve the right to get smarter and look at the separation and look at where we were. One thing that changed is the exit rate of the business, particularly what we called the North American Grocery Company, was not as strong as we would have liked it to be. And to do a successful separation, you really have to have a business in a healthier state. So I started to really work with the team on how can we turn the business around, how can we get it healthy, how can we get back to growth. And it became increasingly clear to me that to execute the separation with excellence while turning around the business was a job that was was not going to be done well. And the most important job to be done was turning around the health of the North American business. And that will preserve optionality to separate in the future or not. But it preserves optionality if we're in a healthy state. And so my 100% focus is now on turning around the North American business."

And I Craft Heinz again has been one of the biggest losers for Berkshire Hathaway. 15 years they have not been able to figure it out now that the company split. Berkshire by the way did not want them to split. Buffett was pretty upset about that a few months ago. But it's just one of those names that didn't end up working out. And you know, it's also funny cuz the amount of money they they put into Craft Heinz back in I think this was 2015, a little bit before that. If they had just put even 10% of that into big tech, I mean Buffett would have destroyed like when I mean destroy, he would have destroyed the S&P because they put so much money into ketchup. Yeah. It was about $8 billion now. I mean that eight billion back then. Yeah. Legitimately you would have five or 7xed that over the next 10 years betting on Google and Facebook etc. So the sort of traditional predictability of the cash flows of ketchup and mac and cheese being sold which is what Buffett loved about the business obviously just did not hold up in a big tech world in terms of where capital was being allocated. Rocket Lab right there trying to go to 77 as well. 76.70 on the day. Are you criticizing him for his ketchup trade? Let's see what you did here. No, but Buffett has criticized himself on ketchup. I mean, it's it's it's the one investment that he's admitted was just I mean, Buffett is a very humble guy when he talks about his mistakes. Craft Heinz is the one where he's like, "Yeah, we we just totally totally made a mistake on that one. This is like a 10-year mistake, too. But this is the thing, right? When you you do it for so long, you're going to have some losers and you're going to hold on to them thinking things are going to change and they might just not end up changing. It's just with big tech, even if they're a loser this year. I think those have the potential to change because they're not just selling ketchup. They're selling a lot more products and services that quite frankly are much more important than ketchup that the entire world has access to. Figma got hammered. Yeah, dude. Figma, it was a good quarter, too. Like, I think it was almost 30 bucks yesterday. It's just it's a SAS name like Palo Alto. It's a SAS name. So, the market's like, "Okay, we don't like it." Even though Palo Alto was great. Figma 10 bucks. Everyone uses ketchup. I am a fan of ketchup in moderation. If there is like when people have like a lot of ketchup on like a burger or hot dog, I can't I can't do it, dude. I just like it's it looks disgusting to me. It's like a ketchup turns into mayo to me when when you have a lot of ketchup. It has to be a very light drizzle of ketchup. It cannot be a lot of it. If it's a lot of it, I'm like, "Okay, this is this is too much. It's way too much." I like ketchup mixed with mayo. See, that's crazy. Okay, I'm sorry. The people who dip their French fries and ketchup and mayo to get That's legitimately you're weird. Okay, you're weird. And maybe I'm weird because everyone does that and I don't and I'm the outlier here. But that's weird. Okay, ketchup and mayo together. I was I was out for sushi with someone the other day and and they and they said, you know, can we get this roll? And I was like, you can have that roll. And they're like, you're not going to share it? I'm like, there is spicy mayo on that roll. They're like, "What's the big deal?" I'm like, "I am not going 10 feet near something with spicy mayo on it." Okay, we're not doing that. So, no, mustard is disgusting as well. The only good sauce that's out there is barbecue in moderation. Too much barbecue also is too bad. Can't do it. Cannot do it. Spicy mayo is ridiculous, bro. Like, why would you make mayonnaise spicy? Like also I have a theory. Okay, I've said this theory before, but mayonnaise is the devil. Okay, the reason why you want to know why? It's a very simple theory. Okay, why is mayonnaise the devil? Like the literal devil? Guess where it comes from? Guess where it comes from? Hell, man. It comes from hell, man. You're telling me that's not the devil? It's literally coming from hell, man. So for people acting like mayo is this ethical product to be able to consume better pray for your sins, bro. I'm just saying like y'all are out of your damn minds. Eating a product from the devil. Hell. Like, does it have to be more obvious? I don't think it has to be that obvious. It is obvious. It's telling you in your face. Anyway, back to the stock market. S&P, can you please give us something? 684.40. 684.40. Oh, don't get me started on tartar sauce, dude. All these I I just think I'm not a sauce guy. I just think I'm not a sauce guy. I can do a little bit of barbecue, but outside of that, I can't do it. I know it's eggs and vinegar, but when you put it together, it comes from hell. Like, what do you want me to say? Like I'm just trying to tell you guys what I've learned. If you guys don't want to believe it, that's fine. But it's what it is. Oracle is up one. AppLovin's up two. Snap is down two. There's nothing in this market, bro. There is nothing. We're not getting any trend, any sense of direction. Zeta's down, too. Intel's down, too. The New York Times is up a little bit. I still don't get the New York Times buy by Berkshire. I still don't get it. Do you like the McDonald's Big Tasty sauce? No, I don't like the Chick-fil-A sauce either. I don't like any sauces other than a little bit of barbecue and maybe a little bit of ketchup. I'm just not a sauce guy. Just not. Fj's up. Well, this is another space name. Why is this up 24%? Do they have earnings? This is in that space bucket. Maybe that's catching a bid. No. Raising Cane's sauce is also disgusting, dude. Like I I can't do these sauces. Can't do it. Also, we don't have a lot of Raising Cane's in the Northeast. The only one I've ever been to is in Boston, like in 2019. Um, I know they're out there in Vegas, but we don't really have that many up here. Oh, I do like hot sauce. I will say hot sauce is decent. I like hot sauce, but again, in moderation. But because hot sauce is like there's something about hot sauce that it doesn't give that kind of thick texture that like mayo and mustard have. Like hot sauce is reasonable, but in terms of like actual other flavorful sauces, I it's it's barbecue. The queso is also disgusting, bro. Like, I don't know what to tell you guys. This is who I am. This is who I am. If anyone ever is out to dinner with me, please do not offer mayonnaise or any of these exotic sauces. Like, no, dude. We're not doing this. Crypto asset flows continue to weaken 3.74 billion and outflows on crypto. This is getting disgusting for crypto. This is getting absolutely disgusting. But nonetheless, you're seeing the money managers get the hell out right now. Now, I think they'll be back in. They're just waiting for the signal. It's definitely not retail. I think selling high bit. I think it's definitely more institutional numbers coming in. Um, let's see some other headlines. Gordon Johnson reiterates his $25 price target and sell rating on Tesla. So, you got that from Gordon Johnson. CME Group is going to be launching 24/7 crypto futures on May 29th. Wow. Okay. So, crypto futures are coming pretty soon even though outflows are leaving BTC. I think those are most of the headlines, dude. I'm not seeing any other headlines because this freaking market doesn't want to do anything. It doesn't want to do anything. Queso is just too far. I'm unfollowing. I'm really picky with food, dude. I don't know why. Like, but when I like something, I'll like I'll like really eat it and I'll eat it for a long time. When I hate something, I'm just like never going to touch it. I'm open to trying new foods, but the these sauces are too much. Did you discuss Peter Thiel exiting fully? Yeah, so Peter Thiel sold off all of his Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon and Tesla. He's out of the public markets now. He hasn't really exited fully. He has obviously large stake in Palantir. He has, you know, massive stakes in Anduril and all of his private companies, but his hedge fund has sold off all their stakes in in public stocks. Um, I mean, look, Peter Thiel tends to be a net seller versus a net buyer historically. That's and he's even criticized himself for selling too early on a lot of stuff, but it's not surprising to me that Thiel doesn't like the environment we're in and he's getting out of it. Yeah, he sold ETHzilla as well. He's out of ETH. He's out of pretty much everything at this point. The fact that we have to have a meal discussion means that this market is not giving us anything. That is true. Have you ever tried French mustard on steak? No, I have not done that. I don't think I want to do that. I did go to Del Frisco's the other day though. Great steakhouse in New York. It was my second time being there. I went once in 2022. It's been a few years and I went again over the weekend and it was great. It's great. Great steak. Their bread also is amazing. Did you cover Trump talking? Yeah, we covered all the clips from Trump while they were happening in real time. especially when he was saying some weird things. But I mean, we didn't really get much from the Trump clips outside of him saying we might strike Iran in a diplomatic way. That's how we said it. Next 10 days, we'll have a better understanding. Bloomberg says, "ByteDance is a dominant AI company and a threat to OpenAI and Anthropic and now Hollywood." I think they're talking about the new SeaDance model. Oh, for by the way, for those that didn't see this, shout out to Matt Hollis on this one, but this is what AI is doing. And this is why we're paying all this capex.

"You're a fool if you think Palantir stock is going down. It's going down and you know it. I'm the milkman [ __ ]"

Well, SeaDance is doing that on a much higher level potentially replicating Hollywood movies, which is why I think we're getting that that Bloomberg article around ByteDance. We played the Tom Cruise clip a couple days ago. I mean, it is kind of crazy. It is kind of crazy. One trillion well spent. Yep. One trillion well spent. We're not going to have a Basis Point episode this weekend or this week. We will have one next week, but um yeah, this week we were not going to have an episode, but we will be back next week. We're starting to get a lot more guests booked for April and March, so should be having a nice string of episodes. coming out in the coming weeks. I do have someone who's in the lineup potentially for a solo interview at GTC for Nvidia's conference. It's not officially booked yet, but we're going back and forth and we're seeing if we can make it happen. It's not Jensen before everyone start thinking it's but it's someone you guys are going to love to hear from. And if we can make that happen, that's going to be really fun. So hopefully we get that during GTC. So SoFi 19.40. Walmart's still pumping. It's not Colette. That'd be pretty cool though. It was Colette, the CEO of Mayo. You know, if the Hellman CEO actually wanted to come on the channel, I would literally just interrogate him about why they are spreading the devil's propaganda around this country. You know, I said that to the to the Wendy's at AIPAC in June of 24. They had Wendy's there and I had to interview like the supply chain VP or whatever. And I was just like, it's on my YouTube channel. You can watch it. I was like, "So, why why do you guys think it's ethical?"

"I mean, clearly a lot's changed since you you walked into this job just a few weeks ago to split the company. What is your latest thinking?"

"Yes, sir. Great to be with you. Thanks for having me. You know, when I joined the company, I was energized about the future separation of the business. I thought the industrial logic was very sound. But when I came into the business, I also said I reserve the right to get smarter and look at the separation and look at where we were. One thing that changed is the exit rate of the business, particularly what we called the North American Grocery Company, was not as strong as we would have liked it to be. And to do a successful separation, you really have to have a business in a healthier state. So I started to really work with the team on how can we turn the business around, how can we get it healthy, how can we get back to growth. And it became increasingly clear to me that to execute the separation with excellence while turning around the business was a job that was was not going to be done well. And the most important job to be done was turning around the health of the North American business. And that will preserve optionality to separate in the future or not. But it preserves optionality if we're in a healthy state. And so my 100% focus is now on turning around the North American business."

And I Craft Heinz again has been one of the biggest losers for Berkshire Hathaway. 15 years they have not been able to figure it out now that the company split. Berkshire by the way did not want them to split. Buffett was pretty upset about that a few months ago. But it's just one of those names that didn't end up working out. And you know, it's also funny cuz the amount of money they they put into Craft Heinz back in I think this was 2015, a little bit before that. If they had just put even 10% of that into big tech, I mean Buffett would have destroyed like when I mean destroy, he would have destroyed the S&P because they put so much money into ketchup. Yeah. It was about $8 billion now. I mean that eight billion back then. Yeah. Legitimately you would have five or 7xed that over the next 10 years betting on Google and Facebook etc. So the sort of traditional predictability of the cash flows of ketchup and mac and cheese being sold which is what Buffett loved about the business obviously just did not hold up in a big tech world in terms of where capital was being allocated. Rocket Lab right there trying to go to 77 as well. 76.70 on the day. Are you criticizing him for his ketchup trade? Let's see what you did here. No, but Buffett has criticized himself on ketchup. I mean, it's it's it's the one investment that he's admitted was just I mean, Buffett is a very humble guy when he talks about his mistakes. Craft Heinz is the one where he's like, "Yeah, we we just totally totally made a mistake on that one. This is like a 10-year mistake, too. But this is the thing, right? When you you do it for so long, you're going to have some losers and you're going to hold on to them thinking things are going to change and they might just not end up changing. It's just with big tech, even if they're a loser this year. I think those have the potential to change because they're not just selling ketchup. They're selling a lot more products and services that quite frankly are much more important than ketchup that the entire world has access to. Figma got hammered. Yeah, dude. Figma, it was a good quarter, too. Like, I think it was almost 30 bucks yesterday. It's just it's a SAS name like Palo Alto. It's a SAS name. So, the market's like, "Okay, we don't like it." Even though Palo Alto was great. Figma 10 bucks. Everyone uses ketchup. I am a fan of ketchup in moderation. If there is like when people have like a lot of ketchup on like a burger or hot dog, I can't I can't do it, dude. I just like it's it looks disgusting to me. It's like a ketchup turns into mayo to me when when you have a lot of ketchup. It has to be a very light drizzle of ketchup. It cannot be a lot of it. If it's a lot of it, I'm like, "Okay, this is this is too much. It's way too much." I like ketchup mixed with mayo. See, that's crazy. Okay, I'm sorry. The people who dip their French fries and ketchup and mayo to get That's legitimately you're weird. Okay, you're weird. And maybe I'm weird because everyone does that and I don't and I'm the outlier here. But that's weird. Okay, ketchup and mayo together. I was I was out for sushi with someone the other day and and they and they said, you know, can we get this roll? And I was like, you can have that roll. And they're like, you're not going to share it? I'm like, there is spicy mayo on that roll. They're like, "What's the big deal?" I'm like, "I am not going 10 feet near something with spicy mayo on it." Okay, we're not doing that. So, no, mustard is disgusting as well. The only good sauce that's out there is barbecue in moderation. Too much barbecue also is too bad. Can't do it. Cannot do it. Spicy mayo is ridiculous, bro. Like, why would you make mayonnaise spicy? Like also I have a theory. Okay, I've said this theory before, but mayonnaise is the devil. Okay, the reason why you want to know why? It's a very simple theory. Okay, why is mayonnaise the devil? Like the literal devil? Guess where it comes from? Guess where it comes from? Hell, man. It comes from hell, man. You're telling me that's not the devil? It's literally coming from hell, man. So for people acting like mayo is this ethical product to be able to consume better pray for your sins, bro. I'm just saying like y'all are out of your damn minds. Eating a product from the devil. Hell. Like, does it have to be more obvious? I don't think it has to be that obvious. It is obvious. It's telling you in your face. Anyway, back to the stock market. S&P, can you please give us something? 684.40. 684.40. Oh, don't get me started on tartar sauce, dude. All these I I just think I'm not a sauce guy. I just think I'm not a sauce guy. I can do a little bit of barbecue, but outside of that, I can't do it. I know it's eggs and vinegar, but when you put it together, it comes from hell. Like, what do you want me to say? Like I'm just trying to tell you guys what I've learned. If you guys don't want to believe it, that's fine. But it's what it is. Oracle is up one. AppLovin's up two. Snap is down two. There's nothing in this market, bro. There is nothing. We're not getting any trend, any sense of direction. Zeta's down, too. Intel's down, too. The New York Times is up a little bit. I still don't get the New York Times buy by Berkshire. I still don't get it. Do you like the McDonald's Big Tasty sauce? No, I don't like the Chick-fil-A sauce either. I don't like any sauces other than a little bit of barbecue and maybe a little bit of ketchup. I'm just not a sauce guy. Just not. Fj's up. Well, this is another space name. Why is this up 24%? Do they have earnings? This is in that space bucket. Maybe that's catching a bid. No. Raising Cane's sauce is also disgusting, dude. Like I I can't do these sauces. Can't do it. Also, we don't have a lot of Raising Cane's in the Northeast. The only one I've ever been to is in Boston, like in 2019. Um, I know they're out there in Vegas, but we don't really have that many up here. Oh, I do like hot sauce. I will say hot sauce is decent. I like hot sauce, but again, in moderation. But because hot sauce is like there's something about hot sauce that it doesn't give that kind of thick texture that like mayo and mustard have. Like hot sauce is reasonable, but in terms of like actual other flavorful sauces, I it's it's barbecue. The queso is also disgusting, bro. Like, I don't know what to tell you guys. This is who I am. This is who I am. If anyone ever is out to dinner with me, please do not offer mayonnaise or any of these exotic sauces. Like, no, dude. We're not doing this. Crypto asset flows continue to weaken 3.74 billion and outflows on crypto. This is getting disgusting for crypto. This is getting absolutely disgusting. But nonetheless, you're seeing the money managers get the hell out right now. Now, I think they'll be back in. They're just waiting for the signal. It's definitely not retail. I think selling high bit. I think it's definitely more institutional numbers coming in. Um, let's see some other headlines. Gordon Johnson reiterates his $25 price target and sell rating on Tesla. So, you got that from Gordon Johnson. CME Group is going to be launching 24/7 crypto futures on May 29th. Wow. Okay. So, crypto futures are coming pretty soon even though outflows are leaving BTC. I think those are most of the headlines, dude. I'm not seeing any other headlines because this freaking market doesn't want to do anything. It doesn't want to do anything. Queso is just too far. I'm unfollowing. I'm really picky with food, dude. I don't know why. Like, but when I like something, I'll like I'll like really eat it and I'll eat it for a long time. When I hate something, I'm just like never going to touch it. I'm open to trying new foods, but the these sauces are too much. Did you discuss Peter Thiel exiting fully? Yeah, so Peter Thiel sold off all of his Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon and Tesla. He's out of the public markets now. He hasn't really exited fully. He has obviously large stake in Palantir. He has, you know, massive stakes in Anduril and all of his private companies, but his hedge fund has sold off all their stakes in in public stocks. Um, I mean, look, Peter Thiel tends to be a net seller versus a net buyer historically. That's and he's even criticized himself for selling too early on a lot of stuff, but it's not surprising to me that Thiel doesn't like the environment we're in and he's getting out of it. Yeah, he sold ETHzilla as well. He's out of ETH. He's out of pretty much everything at this point. The fact that we have to have a meal discussion means that this market is not giving us anything. That is true. Have you ever tried French mustard on steak? No, I have not done that. I don't think I want to do that. I did go to Del Frisco's the other day though. Great steakhouse in New York. It was my second time being there. I went once in 2022. It's been a few years and I went again over the weekend and it was great. It's great. Great steak. Their bread also is amazing. Did you cover Trump talking? Yeah, we covered all the clips from Trump while they were happening in real time. especially when he was saying some weird things. But I mean, we didn't really get much from the Trump clips outside of him saying we might strike Iran in a diplomatic way. That's how we said it. Next 10 days, we'll have a better understanding. Bloomberg says, "ByteDance is a dominant AI company and a threat to OpenAI and Anthropic and now Hollywood." I think they're talking about the new SeaDance model. Oh, for by the way, for those that didn't see this, shout out to Matt Hollis on this one, but this is what AI is doing. And this is why we're paying all this capex.

"You're a fool if you think Palantir stock is going down. It's going down and you know it. I'm the milkman [ __ ]"

Well, SeaDance is doing that on a much higher level potentially replicating Hollywood movies, which is why I think we're getting that that Bloomberg article around ByteDance. We played the Tom Cruise clip a couple days ago. I mean, it is kind of crazy. It is kind of crazy. One trillion well spent. Yep. One trillion well spent. We're not going to have a Basis Point episode this weekend or this week. We will have one next week, but um yeah, this week we were not going to have an episode, but we will be back next week. We're starting to get a lot more guests booked for April and March, so should be having a nice string of episodes. coming out in the coming weeks. I do have someone who's in the lineup potentially for a solo interview at GTC for Nvidia's conference. It's not officially booked yet, but we're going back and forth and we're seeing if we can make it happen. It's not Jensen before everyone start thinking it's but it's someone you guys are going to love to hear from. And if we can make that happen, that's going to be really fun. So hopefully we get that during GTC. So SoFi 19.40. Walmart's still pumping. It's not Colette. That'd be pretty cool though. It was Colette, the CEO of Mayo. You know, if the Hellman CEO actually wanted to come on the channel, I would literally just interrogate him about why they are spreading the devil's propaganda around this country. You know, I said that to the to the Wendy's at AIPAC in June of 24. They had Wendy's there and I had to interview like the supply chain VP or whatever. And I was just like, it's on my YouTube channel. You can watch it. I was like, "So, why why do you guys think it's ethical?"

"to sell mail?" That VP was so confused. They thought there was going to be like a regular interview like, "So, how are you using palletrontology to operationalize and streamline your business practices?" And I was just like, "So, why do you guys think it's ethical to sell mail?" And they were like, "Uh, well, you know, we think..." I think in their head they were like, "Why did they tell me to do this freaking interview when I'm getting asked ethical questions about condiments?" But it was a good interview. It was just it was just a fun couple minutes to to start it off. But I confronted them. I take this [ __ ] seriously. I take it very seriously.

Rockab just below 77. We're not getting anything, folks. We are not getting anything here. You should bring Dylan Patel from SemiAnalysis and ask him why he hates AMD so much. You know, it's funny you bring up Dylan Patel. Did you guys see the headline for Dylan Patel? This guy is um trying to raise a VC fund. Trying to raise a VC fund. Looks like SemiAnalysis is in early talks to raise hundreds of millions of dollars to invest in startups in a new VC fund, >> which look it kind of makes sense because they have so much influence a on the thought leadership around semiconductors, b um they have a lot of people that think very deeply about like the semiconductor ecosystem. So if there are some smaller companies out there that you know are trying to compete in the AI hardware space, I'm sure like these guys can accurately assess if the company is worth investing in or whatever. But it is kind of crazy, right? If he were to raise a couple hundred million and then invested into different startups. So maybe SemiAnalysis will be a much bigger investor.

Oh wow. Do we have this clip? Is Trump falling asleep again? Oh boy. Hold on. Let's see this. >> "And the successful implementation of the second phase of the Gaza peace plan. This includes ensuring a lasting ceasefire." >> Bro, he's definitely falling asleep. You can you know that feeling when you're like no nodding off. You start like wobbling back and forth to try to come back. He's definitely falling asleep here. "phase of the Gaza peace plan. This includes ensuring a lasting ceasefire in the six." >> It is what it is. I mean, at least last time he was honest about it and said, "Yeah, it was boring. I fell asleep." >> I mean, look, the guy is getting older, right? All the random rants we saw today, the rambling. Like, when you get older, this is what happens. And his stamina for his age is still pretty crazy. So like it's going to happen.

Why is this thing still going live? What are they even talking about on this? >> Yeah, it's still going. They I think they're really doing a roundtable. Everyone's talking >> "efforts and achievements. I'm confident, Mr. President, that under your strong leadership..." >> ideas, why can't the world be better? Why can't there be peace? Why can't there be more prosperity for all people in all ways? And I think over the last decade, you really have changed the way that the world thinks about a lot of these things. And I think that this organization is bringing a new approach and new ideas and new people together uh in order to effectuate it. >> We're here today because our congresswoman who froze for 20 seconds over in Munich. Now I'm tempted, sir, just to freeze for 20 seconds and just stare at the cameras. And maybe they'll say nice things about me like they do about Congresswoman Cortez. But >> Wow, JD throwing shade at AOC. There was a moment with AOC in uh Munich uh that was not really the best when she was asked about Taiwan and she she even even the left was roasting her for this. This is what she said. >> "Offer and to to all of you and Congressman, I'll start with you. Would and should the US actually commit US troops to defend Taiwan if China were to move?" >> Um, you know, I think that uh this is such a uh you know, I I think that this is a um >> "today, Junior," >> "this is of course a a very long-standing um policy of the United States. Uh and I think what we are hoping for is that we want to make sure that we never get to that point and we want to make sure that we are moving in all of our economic research and our global positions to avoid any such confrontation and for that question to even arise." >> "Offer." >> That was bad. Objective. That was bad, dude. That was that was a gaff. That was I mean AOC is obviously gonna run for president. Like for those that think it's not happening, it's happening. I don't know if it's happening this cycle, but in our lifetimes, AOC will absolutely try to run to become a president. The Taiwan-China thing, I think, is one of the most important geopolitical issues of our lifetimes like over the next hundred years. We know that something's going to happen around that region. Uh if you ask the Taiwanese people, they are sure that Xi is going to try to make an attempt. So, like, yeah, to not have an answer on that and to be stuttering for 30 seconds and then say some nonsense, not a good look. Now, granted, she'll probably learn from this situation and try to get a better answer in the future, but in all reality, there's not really a good answer. Like, you can't explicitly say, "Yes, we're going to defend Taiwan because then China's going to get pissed off." But you can't say, "We're not going to defend Taiwan." So, you have to be a politician and know how to navigate that and speak in a certain manner. Uh, and you know that stuff takes a different type of communication skill to be able to make that argument.

Mike, thanks for the super chat. Admit, I've been hearing a lot of chatter on copper given the data center buildout. What are your thoughts? Uh, I do believe there is a massive thesis for copper in the data center ecosystem. However, I think unfortunately copper is simply following silver and gold in terms of price action. So, if you care about investing in copper as like a a fundamental thesis for for what you think could happen in regards to data centers, electric vehicles, the grid, all that stuff, sure. If you only care about it because of price action, which to be honest, that's what most people care about. I think it's just at the whims of silver and gold, just like Dogecoin is at the whims of Ethereum and Bitcoin. And so, that that's why I don't know, that's why I'm just not that interested anymore in the thesis. Like I really did get excited about it and then I realized it's just not like there's nothing there. This was the last thing I did on Copex. So we made about two grand which was nice but we got out of it. I mean like if it's just going to follow silver and gold then at that point I don't want to be leveraged towards it. And I can understand why people don't want to get into like a Robin Hood right now or MicroStrategy right now if it's just going to follow crypto. So you have a lot of weird price action being pegged to the commodities. But if silver drops 10% like palladium, platinum, copper, it doesn't matter how fundamental thesis is, they're dropping. And I feel like you just have to be honest about about saying that.

What do the people of Taiwan want? Do they want to reunify with China? From the documentaries I've seen, and for those that haven't seen the 60-minute CBS uh documentary on Taiwan, just type it in on YouTube. it'll pop up. Um, the Taiwanese people really do enjoy being independent. Now, if there are Chinese people in the chat that are super pro-CCP, they're going to be saying, "I'm spinning and I'm spewing Western propaganda." So, you know, take that with a grain of salt. But from the documentaries I've seen, the Taiwanese people do not want to be reunified with the Chinese, just like the Ukrainian people do not want to be reunified with Russians. Again, speaking broadly, obviously, there's a lot of nuance to this conversation. Having said that, in that same documentary, the Taiwanese prime minister, I think this was in 2023, said, "It is not a question of if, it is a question of when in the context of Xi invading." And Xi has basically admitted reunification is the ultimate goal. So like this is going to happen. And this is why companies like Androl, I think, are really important because when [ __ ] does hit the fan and we wake up that morning and just like randomly in 2022, February, you woke up and it's like, "All right, Russia's going in." And then the world changes. Like that will happen one day. I hope it doesn't, but it feels like it will. And when it does, we're gonna need a lot of arms, a lot of weapons, going to need a lot of military. Like, it's not going to be fun when that plays out. So, I think time will tell, but obviously as a politician, you need to have a better understanding of how to deal with that.

All right. Are we done, guys? Are we done? We're getting nothing from this market, dude. Honestly, though, to be to be like perfectly honest, on a Friday or on a Thursday where the last two Thursdays were negative 2% each, I think this is a win for us to be flat on the S&P. We're not really flat, but we're kind of flat compared to two weeks ago. So yes, the drone stocks are doing great today. I mean, if you're in C, if you're in VG, you're having a fun day. If you're in, you're having a fun day. If you're in Rocket Lab, relatively fun. If you're in Nisus, fun day. If you're in OSS, great day. But the broader market is not giving us any love right here. And uh I guess the Iranian headlines could be holding us back. But also the fact that for the past two Thursdays, it's been ugly. If this is the Thursday we have to deal with, I don't think that's the worst thing in the world. Not the worst thing in the world. It's not bad, but there is no catalyst. Yeah, I agree. And again, tomorrow's PCE, we've gota we've got to be 2.9. If we don't, that's going to be ugly. But then again, CPI was good. So I think usually when CPI is good, PCI or PCE tends to be decent. And then you know you have a ton of options expiring tomorrow. It's not going to be a major option day for expirations, but maybe the volatility should not be that intense. We have any other updates here? Uh let's get a little bit coverage of this oil moving higher, but outside of that, nothing too crazy.

Does respond given that affordability has become such a key issue for consumers especially ahead of the midterm elections and any rise in the price of oil is going to ultimately trickle down to consumers given that will increase the rise of product prices now especially things like diesel. We do rely on imports for that heavier crude and so if there are disruptions to global flows particularly from Saudi Arabia crude which does tend to be more distillate-rich that could increase the things for diesels which of course underpins trucking and really is key to the economy. And so that seems to be the key question here and why maybe we haven't seen a stronger response thus far from the Trump administration. Last June, we saw uh that the the the targets were well telegraphed ahead of time, indicating they didn't really want an increase in tensions, but this time around there doesn't really seem to be an offramp for both sides to save face at this point, which is why the crude markets are so on edge. The other key thing here guys to note is that spare capacity has been what's been keeping a lid on the price uh movement so far. But now there are some real questions emerging about how much of a cushion that is going forward. OPEC plus of course has unwound some of their cuts. And so the extent to which they could be they could cover any disruptions from any uh any any blockades of the Strait of Hormuz is now a growing question which means that looking forward we're likely to see more movement to the upside and certainly a price floor until there is more indication of what will happen between the US and Iran. >> That's it. >> Yeah. So we talked about that in the morning. If these oil prices spike higher because Trump wants to get into like a real geopolitical conflict, affordability on gas is going to go lower. So, that's definitely something we got to pay attention to. Um, it's going to be one of those factors over the next few weeks that the market will definitely have to price in. S&P making one last go at 685. Maybe it happens, maybe it doesn't, but we got to break through 685 to to really get some love.

Douggee, thank you for the gifted five memberships. Appreciate you, Mr. Douggee Dollars. He says, "Tomorrow is my payday. I get 8,000 in dividends." It's got to be fun, right? When you have a big dividend portfolio and uh you get some of your get some of your payouts. It's always nice to know that you have your money you have your money working for you. All right, word of the day. Word of the day. Let's see what we got. Prop propitious. Propitious. Propitious. I really doubt I'm saying that wrong. Propitious. Let's see. >> Propitious. Okay, this is this is actually this is like did anyone I don't even know how to justify this anymore. It it's prop whatever bro favorable or indicating a good chance of success. The macro backdrop looks prop. How the hell do you say this thing again? >> Propitious. Propitious for companies with strong cash flow and pricing power. Dude, where did you go to school? Honestly, you know how you guys say, "How were you a debate champion?" I'm questioning that now myself, dude. Like, how the hell did I win debate rounds? Or as I get older, is like my brain unable to comprehend how to read again? I think I read a lot during the day. I read a lot of articles. Like, I don't I don't think I have a reading problem. I genuinely think there's a brain cell that like doesn't know how to read effective. It looks like propituous. You're telling me it's propitious? >> Propitious. >> Or propitious? It's an eighth-grade level word. All right, that's what we got. Um, propitious word of the day. Favoring or indicating a good chance of success. Look, if we end out slightly flat for the day, I think that's all that matters. I think that's all that matters.

Earnings after the bell. Oh, we will have Macro Thursday with Chris. I know we haven't had it for the past couple weeks because we had earnings, but uh we'll have Macro Thursday with Mr. Chris Patel. We'll get his thoughts. Dropbox, Texas Roadhouse, Open Door, Sprouts Farmers Market. Those are your earnings after the bell and then we'll bring on Chris and we'll keep going from there. All right, that's it for me. Thank you everybody. Have a great day. We'll be back on the close. We'll see how we end out Thursday. Two Thursdays ago or the past two Thursdays were ugly. If this Thursday can be less ugly, I think that would be a win. And uh then we will end out the markets as we get into the close later today. Thank everybody. Appreciate it. I'll see you guys on the market close. Bye everybody. I've gone.