Transcription
Well, good morning, good afternoon, and of course, good evening, Traders from across the globe. Welcome to my 288th Edition—that's a lot of editions—of Short Term Trading Live with Oscar Carboni. Evening, kids. Remember, trading is risky, risky, risky, risky. Never trade without protective stops, and put those stops in first.
So what's going on there for trading on March 12th, 2025? Video 2880. The Omni has waved us off from furthest selling on today's Monday, Tuesday, for furthest selling on Wednesday. I never know what day of the week it is, so and that's on purpose. By the way, kids, I don't want to know what day of the week it is because when I get into the trade zone, you know, there are these things that can get in your head: Turnaround Tuesday, give it back Friday—these things I don't want to know about. You know what I'm saying? So I'm like, colel vision; I never know what date it is. Anyway, it's Tuesday night, obviously, for trading on Wednesday. The Omni has called us: Just get away from selling for a day; step off; don't sell it again. Now I will tell you, the Omni has been killing it. It has had a fantastic January: 10,000 plus dollars made trading one lot of the Omni. $119,000 made in February trading one lot of the Omni. We're killing it in March so far. I don't know how much we're up, 'cause I'm not going to look, but we're up good, good in March so far. So far, so good. Thank you, Omni.
What's going on out there? The Omni says, leave it alone for tomorrow because the Omni's been kicking ass. We're going to do exactly what it says. But we've got this NASDAQ; it looks sickly when you look at the chart, right? Weekly, daily, looks sickly. Number two on the board, SNP and e-mini S&P look sickly. Look at them; they, they're terrible looking, horrible looking. I always said horrible; terrible is one word; they're terrible and horrible looking. The Transportation Average and the Dow Industrials look sickly as can be. Forget about that; they look horrible. So you know what? It's time for, it's time for number four on the board: The Omni year-end targets come out today, kids. I've got to save all of you. Now, some of you are losing focus before this move started. I came out with videos and said, "Look, the music is over. The FED stop raising"—excuse me—"this Fed stop lowering rates. The music's over." On top of that, we got a head and shoulders and a double top and all this crazy stuff on the charts, and we started to go down. Now there were people screaming, "It's because of tariffs! It's because of Elon Musk! It's because of everything bad in the world!" And it started because they stopped lowering interest rates; that was it. We started repricing. I mentioned this repricing would happen. You have seen this from me every time the FED switches gears from raising or lowering or neutral. You see me come out with videos to tell you either, either the music stop, the music's back on, the party's open again, or do nothing, right? It's always the same: When the FED stops the music, the market has to pull back a little bit. So when you turn off the music at a party and say it's last call, what happens at the party? It empties out, right? Well, when you say it's last call, as Jer—as as Jerome Powell did of the FED, right? He said, "That's it; we're not lowering rates." The music stopped; the party emptied out a little bit. We knew this was coming long before tariffs and everything else got mentioned. So stop losing focus. It's not about today's news; it's about interest rate movement and that they stopped lowering, which kept the sugar high from the markets, and down a little bit we went. It's called a repricing. We will repic—we will find equilibrium to match for what happened with the halting of interest rate lowers, and the market will come right back up. That's what happens every time the FED does this. 43 years I am telling you this happens every time. Don't worry about all the other static you're hearing. Don't worry about all the quick news coming in today. This is about interest rates, and we're repricing.
With that in mind, it's time to give the Omni year-end call because you know why I wait every year for the market to do something dynamic and go against the year-in Omni call, and I finally put it out. I do it every single year. Ask anybody. Now, if I had given you my Omni call in the beginning of the year, guess what? We would have been buying maybe somewhere around here right now. The charts are down here; they're lower than we have been all year; they're lower than they were in January. This is the time for me to give you my figures. So the year-end projections are going to come out in this video. If you've been following me since 2006 when I started these videos, can you find a year where my year-end projection did not hit on target? 2012, we had a year where the market went up, came down, went back up, and settled at the same place it opened in the beginning of the year at the—the end of the year. Nobody had that one right. Another year, about three years ago, I had to issue two targets because the first year-end target got hit in the middle of the year, and I had to issue another target to show where we would go. Now, every year I put out these year-end targets. I have fund managers; I have private offices calling me and telling me, "Oscar, these are the best year-end targets we've ever seen in our lives." But what I do not produce—I do produce it, and I know what it is—what I do not offer you is the stop. How much can I give away? I'm going to tell you where this market's going to go this year, and it's going to be right, 'cause we've been right year after year after year. But I am not going to tell you the stop level that would negate the call because, again, how much do you want for free? You know what I mean? So for fund managers out there, you cannot do this without me because you don't know where the stop comes in. But every one of my calls, every year, also has a stop where if the market ever gets lower than that spot, the call gets negated, and we redo the call, possibly for the downside. So I have a stop absolutely with the trading targets for this year, but we are going to show the 2025 year-end Omni Targets in this video. It'll happen during the chart segment. Get ready, and make sure you write them down.
To reiterate: NASDAQ looks ugly, sickly; S&P ugly, sickly; the Transportation, the Dow, horrible looking. Time for the Omni. I'm telling you, man, these Omni claws, we're going up later on in the year; you'll see. So last thing we have is this: Guess what? Omni Camp is, from now, can you guess? 12 days away! Omni Camp in Las Vegas is 12 days away, kids. If you would like to join me for a 5-day live seminar held here at my home office, you go to omniobootcamp.com. You're going to have to do it now. I've got to make preparation for you, and there's 12 days left. Go to omniobootcamp.com right now; fill out those Omni Camp applications. You will study with me in my home office for a whole four or five-day weekend. We literally show up on a Thursday; we finish on a Monday. I will train you; I will teach you the Omni, which is Oscar's Market Navigational Indicator. I will show that to you in its entirety. There is no upsell; you learn the entire Omni when you're with me during that 5-day session. Please make, make sure you do this. 12 days from now, and there's an added bonus: We're all going to see the gr—for dead at The Spar. All my Omniacs that come to this Omni Camp, we're going on a field trip. It's an added bonus, plus, of course, I'm going to send you all home with a brand new laptop programmed by me. I've got a seat open; I've got an Omniac that I'm willing to qualify if you guys fill out those applications. Omnibootcamp.com; go there now.
Okay, so now we're going to look at the chart segment, and then you're going to see the 2025 year-end targets. Kids, I am looking forward to showing them to you. Now, once again, every year I wait for the market to look so bad that I look like a nut when I put these targets out, and I do that on purpose, and I'm going to look like a nut today. But at the end of the year, you're going to say the same thing I hear every year: "Oscar, that was amazing! It didn't look right in the beginning of the year, but somehow you got it right." Every year the Omni gets that right; it's going to get it right again this year. There is a stop, just in case, as you know. If the market ever reaches that level, I would come out in front of the video and let you know that the year-end call has been negated. Nowhere, nowhere near worrying about that now. I'm just producing and showing you the year-end call. Now, I come up with this call in January; it's already locked, boxed in January. I always wait for the big pullback if it's going to be an upwards call, or I'll wait for a massive rally if it's going to be a downwards call, 'cause I want to look like I'm crazy when I put this out, 'cause I want to show you the power of technical analysis. So with no further ado, we're going to do two things: One, we're going to do the exercise about stops, or in emotions are out, and two, we're going to go look at some ass-kicking charts. Are you with me? One, two, three. [Music] Stop emotions! Ah, rock and roll, Traders! Now we're going to go see the year-end targets and look at some charts, Traders.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average daily ball: Look at how ugly: Left shoulder, head, right shoulder, breaks down through the right shoulder, under the 200-ball moving average, and we're spiking lower, and it settled today at the end of the day on the low. Ugly. Right. Next one: Look at the NASDAQ. Had the nasty double comp; it worked. We had the pullback, broke through the 200, and the funds came in and beat the crap out of it. Oh boy, does that look terrible, right? I agree. Then you've got the Russell: Shoulder, head, shoulder, breaks down under the right shoulder, below the 200-ball moving average, and you just spiral down. Looks terrible, right? Well, I have a feeling that it's not going to stay that way. First off, look at Bitcoin. Crypto fans, check this out. Bitcoin put in the double top as well as everything else that we've seen in the indices, and it fell apart when the indices did, but it got to the 200-bar moving average, Bitcoin did, and bounced. So far it's all the way back up here now. It doesn't break the 200-bar moving average; that's the bottom, usually. Get this: It came racing down from all the way up here to double top, down, down, down, down, and guess what it did right here on Tuesday? It filled this gap; it left the gap from here to here. This whole time it filled the gap, hit the 200-ball moving average, and popped up for the day. That's promising, kids. I don't care what anyone says; that's promising. Go Bitcoin! Maybe if Bitcoin goes up, maybe the rest of the markets will turn. We'll see. E-mini SNP chart: Check this out. We were down here in January of this year. Why would I give out the targets when I can wait until we fall apart? 'Cause if I gave you the targets here, you'd have been buying here or here or here or here. Now I'm giving you the targets; we're all the way down here. We are lower than we were in the beginning of the year, and now if you buy, if you believe in my targets, you've got good reasoning because you've got, you know, you're buying last year's prices, not this year.
So the year-end targets for 2025: 7512. You know what's really interesting about that? That's my badge number. Now I went and did that analysis four times over because I could not believe it came up as the same number on my badge I've been wearing since I'm 18 years old—well, 21 years old—as a kid in the pit. 7512 is my number, and that is the first number I'm getting on the upside in the S&P. Now remember where we're at at the moment, right? We're in the 5500 area. I'm looking for 7512. If it breaks or bests 7512, we could go as high as 8320 this year. So I am telling you now, based on the analysis, and we're nowhere near a level that makes me want to change this projection, based on this analysis, we are heading back up this year. Those interest rate moves that we're having now, the equilibrium that we're going to find is going to materialize, and according to the Omni, we're going to be here, if not here, by the end of 2025. Traders, I hope that helps. I hope you write these numbers down. I hope that you've been watching me since, I don't know, we're 17 years deep putting out these videos. We have not nailed a year-end call wrong yet; we don't expect this one to be wrong either. My gift to you, while the market's cracking and everyone's panicking, here's some hope for you. I hope it helps. I'll meet you all at livewithoscar.com.