Transcription
Let's talk some quarterbacks and tight ends, the onesie position. And as always, we treat this episode almost like a game preview, game matchup standpoint. We talk some defensive players, some offensive line injuries, and even some, yes, coaching narratives because we love walking down that street, Hayden.
The narrative right now from you is who can beat the Chiefs? Who's better than us? Nobody right now. The Chiefs get the Washington Commanders and Patrick Mahomes is your quarterback one of the week. Also say for your opener because this is the Saturday episode, start letting some like more aggressive takes fly, you know, just kind of shift from the hip a little bit more because fewer views that means we can kind of wrap just ramp up the ranch up uh ramp up the uh aggressiveness on the takes.
So, uh this one's not even aggressive. Patrick Mahomes has been the fantasy quarterback one and they're projected for the second most points. He was in running like a madman and he passed the ball like crazy. and uh Dorren Armstrong, Drake Jackson, uh Jean Baptiste, Datrick Weise, like all these guys. They don't they they're not good and they're not on the field, >> right? And I'll list the guys that are on the field. Uh Bobby Wagner and Frankie Louvu trying to stop Patrick Holmes from running around. And what he does so well at this point is if he's facing zone, which is, you know, quite a bit, >> um he manipulates the coverage based on, oh, I'm going to act like I'm scrambling or I'm going to get up and kind of strafe the line of scrimmage. And that pulls a safety or a linebacker out of that window or out of that section and then he just throws around them or into that spot. Yeah. And then it's like, "Oh, how'd he get wide ass open?" Well, the quarterback is literally pulling defenders on strings. >> Yep. It's going to be the scary part is because the last couple years he had to learn how to beat zone coverage and take all the underneath stuff. And now that they have the downfield uh guys and you can win with both, he's kind of like like did a little internship on just how to manipulate that zone stuff for the last couple years. So, he's going to be Patrick Mahomes might be pretty good moving forward is my is my take.
Well, we need Lamar Jackson to be good moving forward because this team has won one game so far this season has had a few get out from underneath them. This is the rest of their season. It is this game against the Chicago Bears and the betting markets are easily favoring the Ravens here. They are six and a half point favorites with a team total of 27 and three/4ers. That is a lot of expectations. Yeah. For a third of this team basically coming back from injury. My question is like what if it just doesn't look good or what if Hayden it's just a bad bounce of the ball. It goes off of Mark Andrews hands and it gets intercepted by someone else and you get a pick six and you lose the game based on a singular snap which in the NFL it's kind of common to do that.
Well, especially for Ravens games. I was going to take the other the other side of this. What if the expectations are too low and people are putting too much emphasis on what's happened the last month when the reality is Ronnie Stanley's back and fully practicing, Lamar Jackson's back fully practicing, they had plenty of time to get right. The the entire offense is healthy and we had Super Bowl uh aspirations for this team. And when Lamar Jackson has had all these guys and Derrick Henry all healthy, he's been the MVP and the leader in EPA and the team goes absolutely crazy. And the Bears right now are fourth worst against fantasy quarterbacks. Jaylen Johnson, their top corners on injured reserve. Tyreek Stevenson, their their second corner, he hasn't practiced. Kyler Gordon's been limited in practice. So, like my question is, could this be the team that goes absolutely crazy? And we've kind of like sometimes like what the Lions do when they're projected for a lot of points, but they're still underrated. I can see that being the case now that you have Stanley, Lamar Jackson, plus his entire personnel grouping, including Isaiah likely, all back and ready to go.
Yeah. Yeah, and the Bears defense has struggled this season if they aren't creating turnovers, and they've been creating turnovers ever since that game against Juno Smith. >> Um, they've also allowed multiple touchdowns to five of the six quarterbacks they face this season. So, I'm totally with you on Lamar Jackson being the quarterback two this week. That brings us to Josh Allen, uh, at Carolina against Carolina. This is, is it at Carolina? >> I think it's in Carolina. >> It's at Carolina. You're right. Uh, as the quarterback three, >> um, how are the Bills going to respond out of the buy is the big question here. Are they going to be more runheavy? Are they going to put more of the responsibility on Josh Allen with this mid at best passing group that he has?
No. Josh Palmer in this one. We'll see about Dalton Concaid. So maybe a little bit worse in in terms of the skill group. But I'm frustrated with the Bills kind of like how I've been frustrated with the Chiefs the last couple years where they have this alien quarterback who is still flashing and still been fantastic, but you're seeing fewer of the downfield concepts that they're capable of of playing with. It's probably just a personnel issue, but I would still trust Josh Allen to fire the ball over the middle and down the field, and we just have not seen that. So the last month, it's been a weird month for them. They're 31st in neutral pass rate and they still also don't get James Cook involved. So it's like who are they giving the ball to? It's been a just a weird offense recently. And even with all that, he's been the fantasy quarterback three per game. So you can't overreact to this. But I I think it's fair to be a little bit frustrated with the Bills offense even though it's still really good just because, you know, there's this extra gear that they can hit and they have in in the past. We're just not seeing it recently.
Win pressure this season. He's like 19th in completion rate, 20th in yards for pass attempts, two touchdowns, and four interceptions. At the same time, this Panthers defensive line has been really good against the run, but unless you face Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor, they haven't been able to pressure the quarterback. Uh, and this is a really good Bills offensive line. So, I think we could see numerous Josh Allen five, six second time to throw dropbacks in this game.
Yikes. Yeah, these three quarterbacks are projected according to the underdog pick them lobby for at least 22 fantasy points. Everybody else it's 21 or 209. So these are like the three elite ones.
And if you've never played on underdog before, again, now we're in 41 of 50 states. So states like California, Texas, in the past you could not play. Now you can. It's really that simple. Click the link in the description down below or use promo code the show. If you play $5 the first time, uh we'll give you a hundred bucks of bonus cash. You can do that by playing drafts like battle royals. Um other games out there too.
Team picks.
Yeah. Spreads,
game picks, prediction markets, all that good jazz. So, uh, if you want to do something, you can do it on underdog. There's a new slogan. Next.
Wow.
Jaylen Herz is your quarterback for uh this is against the New York Giants. Um big question. Can we get another four drop backs under standing here from Jaylen Herz when last time it equaled, you know, like 118 yards and big big downfield passes, >> especially on those plays. The Giants might not have Javon Holland and a top corner because they haven't not been practicing much. So, they're not going to have Cam Jurgens in this one most likely. He has not practiced with a knee injury. That said that it still funnels around Jaylen Herz in terms of the tush pushes and the downfield shots, but it would be pretty insulting to see or have everyone say do under center play action, marry the ground game to the pass game. You do it, it works, you win a huge game, and then to be like, nope, that's over. So, we'll see. This would be like a pretty big like litmus test for like my faith in the offensive coordinator. Like, it's too hard to ignore how you should, you know, call the call the game.
Totally. And like you said, no Javon Holland, no Paulsono here. Um, last time they played the Giants again just a couple weeks ago on TNF. The Giants actually played man coverage on 33% of Jaylen Herz's dropbacks, which is the highest rate he's seen in a game so far this season. So again, you just wonder if they do the exact same thing. And if Kevin Patulo has the counters off of that, >> which he had some open man, you know, down the field last time, but he just had no answer versus pressure, you know, no answer once his primary was taken away and then his hot looks just zero clue. So if we have seen him, you know, kind of turn the corner versus that stuff a couple weeks ago, it's going to get defined in this game and I'm excited for it. And that 31% man coverage rate that you referenced. I know that the Giants on the season is higher than that. So, they kind of slowed down their man coverage reps, but typically this is a man coverage uh based team, which is I think good news for Jaylen Herz. It's kind of easier just to like, hey, there's Dvonte Smith running with a corner that has no business running with them. Let's throw the ball there.
Okay. Big Bo Knicks is here as quarterback five. He certainly hasn't played like quarterback five all season long, but he certainly hasn't played against the Dallas Cowboys defense. >> Uh he has to get there in this matchup. He has to.
Yeah. Yeah. They're fourth in projected points this week at 27. They're at home. They're projected for more than the Buffalo Bills in this one, more than the Philadelphia Eagles. Bo Nicks has scrambled at times. It kind of goes hit and miss there, but I mean, it's the Dallas Cowboys. They can't stop anybody. That's been the case the entire year. know Trayvon Diggs and this one with a concussion. We'll see about a a safety on top of that. They can't rush the passer. So, there's really like no excuses here. And then if we really want to dig into it, if you remove every game Bon Knicks has played in September, >> I thought you meant remove every game that Bon Knicks has played. I thought you were going to stop there except for fourth quarter. >> This is a fantasy football show. So, for the fantasy points, they get really good in October and November. They're less good in September. But if you remove all those games, Bo Nicks is an elite fantasy quarterback. You just have to remove, you know, what 33% of the sample.
You know, if you remove every show that I do from November and December, I would be pretty happy.
Well, there's there's no one stopping you. >> So, I think from now on, what we have learned is let's do Bonix and just sit him in the first Yeah. >> four weeks of the NFL season, then he's one of the better quarterbacks. And then if I just take an early winter vacation in November and December, maybe the show does better, too.
Well, we'll see about that. >> Uh, just to go through this. Bonx quarterback 271195 1521 and then obviously he was the quarterback won last week against the Giants, but we know that 33 of the 33 points that they scored were in the fourth quarter.
Yeah. Now, tough to do that. There's some skill to put up 33 and a quarter, but you know, a roller coaster ride.
Daniel Jones is up next as the quarterback six. Uh, one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the league right now. It is totally in sync. The rhythm, the flow on every single series is really what we search for when we go back and watch all these teams on Monday and Tuesday. And he just looks so comfortable back there and just knows where the answers are pre- snap and postnap. It's just an easy easy flow to the system. It's like not even like drive by drive. It's like every single play is a version of one of the plays they ran like the previous drive. And it's just a counter off. It's it's I think the most fun offense to watch. And if you're like had to steal um a playbook for your high school offense, you would be stealing Shane Syens right now. So on top of that, Ardan Key is he's barely practiced an edge rusher. Jeffrey Simmons, their best player, like a true defensive player of the year candidate, uh who can chase down everybody and is stronger than everybody else on the field. He has not practiced. And then Legius need their top corner um who has not been good but he's on injured reserve at this point.
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Baker Mayfield quarterback seven on the week. This is at the New Orleans Saints. I believe last week he did not have a uh single positive scramble which is very different than Baker Mayfield on top of you know when the chaotic moments do happen when his head gets cut off and he runs around like a madman. Uh a lot of times that has end up in positive plays. It it definitely definitely did not happen versus pressure last week, >> but the thing is he should not be pressured very often against this New Orleans Saints past rushing unit.
I saw a quote from him after the last uh week's game where he said that the lane integrity was a big reason why the Lions had a lot of um success and he was unable to scramble because everybody was like staying committed to their actual role. We'll see if the Saints can do that. Chase Young has been playing recently has been playing through that injury. has not been the same player. Um, and in general, I think that the Buccaneers offense is going to move the ball a ton and then I think that the scramble stuff will tick back up here. Um, TZ Johnson, like these guys have like flash like when Kon gets receptions, he's pretty reliable there. So, even though they're missing like the two of their highest paid players, the depth in Tampa Bay, it's like just pretty incredible. Like even the guys that you've never even heard of, you start watching them, you're like, "Hey, that's like a a real player there." It's so different than and obviously the quarterback's different too, but like what Darren Muji's doing in the Jets where oh you have Garrett Wilson then after that we're just going to go into the season with no like >> Josh Reynolds and Aren Smith and >> all these other randos like >> wide receiver >> from a college to NFL standpoint should probably be the deepest position out there in the NFL. And so at least have like the Bucks are doing functional players that are your wide receiver five, your wide receiver six, whatever. Uh and Jason Light has done a tremendous job with that in the Bucks here.
Yeah, he really has. So Baker Mayfield's up at 19.8 expected points in the underdog pick and lobby. So um a must start.
Drake May is up next. It's against the Cleveland Browns. A really, really fun offense versus defense showdown here. Only two quarterbacks have reached 15 fantasy points versus this Browns defense so far this season. And as for Drake May, uh, you know, he's scored a whole bunch of fantasy points. I think in every game but one, he has gone over those 15 fantasy points, including outings of, you know, 20, 23, 26, 27, uh, and another 20 on top of it. So, uh, Drake May very good at playing football. he is. And then I think on top he's just a great fantasy asset the way he plays because he's very aggressive. Um and thrown a bunch of you know catchable passes down the field and most of them to Kahan Booty who's been like he kind of sticks out like a sore throne um the downfield um catch rate right now and then he doesn't scramble a ton but he's really effective when he does take off. And that's exactly how he played at North Carolina. So, I think this is one of these games where they cannot run the ball. They just the offensive line is just not strong enough. Raandre and Trayvon have had their own issues. Um, and I just don't think you're gonna be able to run the ball on Malik Collins and Miles Garrett and these guys. So, I think that the most effective way is just drop back and then hope that, you know, Miles Garrett doesn't baptize your left tackle.
And that's a big part of it, right? This Patriots offensive line which has really been put together in one off season has done really well especially in comparison to their run blocking but this will be a huge test for them. Uh you have like Malik Collins on the interior, you have Mason Graham on the interior and then certainly you have Miles Garrett on one side and Drake May has gotten the ball according to Rich Reaper out within two and a half seconds on only 38% of his passes so far this season. Drop backs entirely. That's 32nd in the NFL. So, we're going to see a whole bunch of him moving around and these really good defensive linemen chasing him.
Dang. Yeah, I'm I'm excited to watch not the game, but that side of the ball.
Yeah. Next up, Dak Prescott. Um, ever since week one, that game against the Philadelphia Eagles when they were at full strength, Dak has gone quarterback 517, one three, six, nine. Now, this is Denver, but as we just saw last week, uh they can have some big chunk passing games against them, and Dak Pres is gonna have both CD Lamb and George Pickkins. I like Dak here as a top team quarterback for sure.
Yeah, he just kind of cemented himself where they dropped back enough and he's been so efficient that you at least need to trust him to to some degree. He's he's kind of a high floor play um no matter what. Um, now like in Denver, if you're just chalking it up, that that that to me is the most difficult match up besides like maybe like in Cleveland in November and December where there's like also crazy weather too. But yeah, this is this is not an easy task. You do have your offensive line's like mostly all the way back now after missing four out of five starters at one point. Get CD Lamb who I thought was moving pretty well uh as well. So they have more answers to the test this year now that they have two wide receivers that they can trust and then Jake Ferguson to work over the middle. So they can they can find like the weak spots which I think's more at linebacker right now. Uh but you have CD Lamb and Jake Ferguson to kind of take advantage of of any um mismatch. And also just shout out the coaching staff once again like they're just dialed in. You know, they can pass and run the ball. And I think that they're really good on a week-to-eek basis as well. And it's just a credit to to Shotti.
And you know, we saw Daniel Bellinger wide open down the field last week. We saw the fluke play to Theo Johnson as well, but we also saw like Jaylen Hyatt nearly come down splitting a corner and a safety with a deep pass last week. The Cowboys have 16 plays of 30 or more yards on offense this year, which is the most in the NFL. Wow. So, >> we'll see if that continues.
Caleb Williams, I think there's a cliff here for me, Hayden.
Yeah, >> between Dak and Caleb, even if he's your quarterback 10, and that means a must start in your leagues, even if we, you know, eliminate Justin Herbert and such from Thursday Night Football. Uh, this is at the Baltimore Ravens. Negative game script is projected here, meaning he will likely have to pass the football a lot more than he has over these last two weeks. We've talked about in Staff's film how how motion has helped this team in the rushing department. It's actually hurt him in the passing department. So, I'll be intrigued to see uh if he can match now after kind of carrying this offense in the opening four-ish games of the season, if he can now match his rushing attack, too.
And I think just a lot of eyeballs deserve to go to the Ravens defense, too, because they've been dealing with so many injuries. They're now mostly all back. So, I think we need to largely throw out what's happened to Baltimore for the first six, seven weeks uh of the season. And I think they're gonna be more middle of the road from this point forward. Now, I think the big thing is just the amount of dropbacks were expected here versus in the two previous games where they've been very runheavy. And when Caleb Williams is forced to the drop back, you're also getting all the scrambles. zone in recent games has not had to scramble as much, but in a game where they could be losing by projected seven points, that's where you just get a lot more of the out of structure play, which it could be hit and miss for Caleb Williams, but just more dropbacks is good for for Caleb in general just because he has a knack for scrambling. So, I think this could be a situation where he kind of backdoors himself into maybe like a high-end quarterback to finish.
Joe Flacco is next for you. Yes, he's your quarterback 11. We talked about it as soon as he took over as a starter here for this Bengals offense that he'll probably lead the NFL in quickest time to throw. That has been the case. His two starts this season, 2.27 seconds and 2.45 seconds.
That's like the Tua offense when he had Tyreek and Wadd just running down the field by everybody. So yeah, honestly, if you're looking at the pick and lobby, he's projected for more points than Dak Prescott and Caleb Williams. So, I'm like underranking Joe Flacco versus the projections now. It's like almost identical. But if you look at the implied points for the team, the Bengals are at 25 and a half. That's higher or the same as, you know, Baker Mayfield and Jaylen Herds we've talked about. It's higher than Dak Prescott and Drake May uh and Caleb Williams. So, this is I think a good spot for him. Um, especially like you guys play in some like six uh points per touchdown leagues, which I think that should just be the the consensus for fantasy football and we should make fantasy quarterbacks a little bit more valuable. Um, I think he's a lowend quarterback one in those leagues. Well, he's ranked ahead of Jordan Love. Jordan Love here at the Pittsburgh Steelers. Um, just one single top 10 scoring week so far this season for Jordan Love at this point. Um, and in, you know, medium or slowish pace games, the Packers, like I talked about in the wide receiver show, kind of play into that. And that means the game flow and especially inside the red zone goes directly to Josh Jacobs. Um, now, can they get pushed and then can they throw the football and like put the pedal to the floor in certain games? Yes. But I also think that's not going to happen here against the Pittsburgh Steelers and how they operate to the same time. super slow paced game and it's going to be pretty balanced on both sides of the ball. Even last year and the the year before that when Jordan Love was all of a sudden like top five in EPA per drop back, he was never really a fantasy quarterback because he almost never runs. He's almost never utilized at the at the goal line and then his drop backs per game are always really low. So, you need to kind of pick the game. He's going to have 300 pass yards and three touchdowns and like connect on his downfield passes and those have been just a little bit more hit and miss this year than in previous um iterations. So, I think he's capable of of putting it all together here. But, um we have to kind of pick our battles because he is he's been a fantasy quarterback too for for many years in a row now. Pittsburgh I don't think is very impressive on defense. Uh, and the Packers offensive line is now mostly healthy after being really injured early on. So, this could be like a a little breaking point where and Jordan Love's had like multiple month streaks where he's been on completely on fire and then kind of regressed. Maybe this is the the turning point where the Packers offense goes nuts again through the air.
Yeah, this from the worksheet. Uh, we always talk about quarterbacks falling off a cliff when pressured. Jordan Love is number one in the NFL so far with that this season. When pressured this year, Jordan Love is last with a 35% completion rate. Last in yards per pass attempt at 3.6 and has not thrown a touchdown again when under duress.
Whoa.
When kept clean, Jordan Love has completed a league high 85% of his passes with a 10.3 yards per attempt and an 8.3 touchdown rate.
Holy smokes.
What were the completion percentage? 85 to 35.
Yes.
What? That's insane.
Crazy. Now again, it helps that his offensive line is getting healthier right now.
Yes.
At the same time, like >> take the Joe Flacco game last week against the Steelers. He gets the football out so quickly and TJ Watt runs the same loop over and over for his pass rushing stats >> that it's very predictable. And so if you just get the football out, he's not going to pressure you. Whereas Jordan Love when he sits back there and he hits his back foot and then he bounces, he bounces, he bounces, then that's going to give TJ Watt to me maybe more of an opportunity to have a bigger impact in this one versus >> Yes.
Yeah. Interesting. And also just noting that the secondary, Slay, Ramsay, their safety play, it's just been slow, lethargic just in general. So, um, there's you get Christian Watson, Matthew Golden going, there's a little bit of speed here. Tucker Tucker Craft after the catch. So, I think in general, more I think about this game, I I do think it's a good spot for for the Packers offense.
Yeah. And being favored by three points on the road is nothing to laugh at, I think, in >> 2025.
Okay. Jackson Dart is your quarterback 13 is at the Philadelphia Eagles so far as a starting quarterback of the New York Giants. Jackson Dart has been the quarterback 10, the quarterback 20, then was the quarterback three against these Eagles, and the quarterback two against the Denver Broncos. So, you're expecting kind of a middle ground between those two performances so far. Uh, I do think that this Eagles defense is going to be very different than the one he faced last time. One, they're at home, the Eagles are, and then two, you'll get Quinon Mitchell for more than what the 15 snaps he played in that game hopefully. And then you'll also get Jaylen Carter playing. And those two are easily the two best defenders other than Zack Bond on this Eagles unit. And I'm guessing they probably have a better plan just in general at the cornerback two spot. Um where the first couple games it was so brutal. It still is pretty bad, but I bet Fanio is starting to figure out exactly how to hide that situation a little bit. Um, yeah, it's it's a insane spot for Jackson Dart to have success in. If he can do it in Philadelphia here, this that'd be incredible. So hopefully gets Darius Sllayton back because they they really need somebody to take the top off the defense because we can see how Jackson Dart plays. like that's what he wants to do. That's what he did at Old Miss is like buy time or on a half field read just throw the ball down the field and we're starting to see that if they actually had like some separation at wide receiver that would go a long way. Um so hopefully he gets Darius Slade back.
You know a lot of time rightfully has been spent on the Cam Scataboo Jackson Dart energy of it all. I want to call attention to the two tackles here for >> the Giants like Andrew Thomas. We always talk about the onoff splits with him >> and he's been healthy and been fantastic, >> but then Germaine Illuminor is also playing very well at the right tackle spot. And so just like having these two bookend guys for a quarterback who, like you said, does some of his best work when uh out of structure, dropping his eyes, moving around, then resetting and looking up and firing down the field. You wouldn't be able to do that if you didn't have two really, really good tackles out there. And they did a great job for three quarters against Nick Bonito and this Broncos pass rushing unit. And guess what? Philadelphia has been really struggling to get pressure off of the edge. They're gonna have again a much easier and better job hopefully doing that with Jaylen Carter back in the interior. Uh so yeah, that's a strength versus I think a weakness now with Philadelphia.
Yeah, completely agree. I think the consensus will start being Andrew Thomas is the best tackle in football. Like the best tackles are old. There's going to be like the new era of of tackles in the league. I think that Andrew Thomas will be like the consensus top one on the left side. Marcus Mar he and Tristan Warf about there. Those two guys.
Yep. And they're in the same draft class, >> I think.
Yeah. And then, uh, the Browns took, you know, the other one.
Jedric Wells. Marcus Mariota um, is up next. The Chiefs 29th rushing points allowed to quarterbacks at 5.2 rushing points per game. I say that because that has to be the avenue that if the commander is going to have success, Marcus Mario is going to have to use his legs in this one.
This is more like backdooring your way into quarterback 2 stuff for for fantasy purposes because the team's only projects for 17 and a half. Spags has been doing really well. The uh interior line for the commanders has not been all that great and Chris Jones can move and pick just the best matchup. He absolutely ate the Raiders alive uh last week against their worst um offensive lineman and you can do the same with Washington. All that said, whenever Mariota has been a starter in this Cliff Kingsbury offense, he has been very good fantasy. So, I think I'm putting a lot of faith in those metrics, but it does make sense like stylistically how the offense wants to run and what Mariota is good at. It is a good pairing in general. And then having Debo Samuel and Terry McLuren both be healthy in this one does uh make a difference.
All right, here's my pick entry for the week. We talked about in the wide receiver episode, but Matthew Golden higher three and a half first quarter receiving yards. All right, >> and then Marcus Mariota higher 24 and a half rushing yards. It's just a little pick, too. That's how we're going to play it. Again, if you've never played an underdog, now's the time to do so. Link is in the description down below for that.
Aaron Rogers, Green Bay Packers. facing off. Uh I would say the Packers defense just overall versus where they were in like week one has taken a slight step back just in like a series in series out, but they still have these alpha talents and especially Micah Parsons who can take over games in critical moments and gets you off the field.
Um, I mean again Parsons was unreal against the Arizona Cardinals. And the thing is with Aaron Rogers, he will definitely not want to get hit by >> no >> any of these pass rushers. So, we might set a record here for um >> time to throw in terms of the shortest.
And the Packers got aliens at linebacker um >> and that's pretty important against Arthur Smith because they run all the the leaks and the tight end stuff and they run the ball and you got to have your linebackers to either be able to read it >> quickly. Edan Cooper trailing down the seam with any of these tight ends be a real part of it.
Yep. >> Yeah. So, I think it's just a tough matchup for the how the Steelers have been moving the ball versus what the Packers um their best part of their defense, which is edge rusher and linebacker and then safety play. So, um I I think a good match up for for the for the Packers. It should be fun to to watch this one.
Spencer Rattler, quarterback, 16. Anything you want to add here against this Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense? I thought Spencer Rattler uh we've talked about them being feisty and fun. was really bad last week against Chicago Bears.
He was uh he's gonna have those games because he's an aggressive player with decent tools but not elite tools and then you're just gonna throw some picks. Um he's also losing Eric McCoy who's just been like obviously very helpful for an inexperienced quarterback group. He's got a biceps injury. He's on injured reserve. So that's gonna be something else for them to navigate. this the guards have both been really bad and McCoyy's been chipping in for both of those sides and now you have backups kind of everywhere. So, and then your left tackle who I really like is also a rookie at the same time. So, thankfully Hassan Reic is probably not going to play with any injury but what is the plan for VA?
Fair question.
There is no plan. Well, even if you were there is no plan. At the same time, the Saints are projected for 21 and a quarter points, which is >> where the Steelers are at, where the Bears are at. >> More than the 49ers, the Panthers, the Jets, the Dolphins, the Giants, the Commanders, the Browns, and the Titans.
Yep. >> It's pretty dang good.
Yeah, I think that's a that's a Kell Moore stat, and that's like the feistiness of the Spencer Rattler big plays with a Rasheed Shahed. So, I'm not completely writing them off. I'm just It's of note. you get Todd BS and you're missing your starting center and you got VA. So, it's just all coming in at once um here. But yeah, Rattler could have a couple big plays against the secondary. That would not surprise me.
CJ Strad is your quarterback 17 because they played in prime time. It has been a week of CJ Strad conversations out there. Um you and I have them every week.
Yeah, I think it's obvious that he's anticipating pressure more often than he has in the past. Now the 49ers though are down their best pressure people. Obviously we know about Nick Bosa, but Bryce Huff is a major part of that.
I mean was someone with the Jets who was a great third down player and for this team he's played like 30 35 40% of the snaps if not more than that and then >> he's their get off the field guy and he's not playing in this one. So, I guess my question is, can CJ Stroud be what Baker Mayfield and Matthew Stafford were to the San Francisco 49ers defense versus what we just saw with Michael Penn try to do versus 49ers defense?
Yeah. On top of that, Ugur Goss, another edge rusher, hasn't practiced. Diodor Lenor, their corner, quad injury, he hasn't practiced. So, the 49ers are extremely banged up on defense. They have the most dollars on injured reserve uh in the NFL. It's not even close. And then a lot of the guys that we're mentioning here, uh, including Ricky Pieraw, Brock Perie on the other side of the ball, they're not even counting that because they're not on a reserve list. They're just not practicing on the active roster right now. So, it's it's the most banged up team in the league. Um, it's a good question on Scrat. The offensive line is in such a disarray. And then their outside receivers right now. I mean, Hutchinson and Higgins, it's been it's been a problem. They've even stick Braxton Barios on the outside, too. So, it's bad on bad. So, could he shroud make enough plays? He's, we've talked about he's regressed on tape recently. Um, and there's reasons for that, but at the same time, like at some point, >> criticism belongs to CJ Stra as well.
And you get Robert Salah here who is getting his unit amped up every single time. Y >> and he's facing off against Diko Ryan who, you know, used to be a part of this coaching tree. I guess still is. At the same time, this is one again, so much connective tissue here that like you're going to kind of feel the tension through the television from these coaches, especially on the Texans end like >> kind of feels like Ryan, I'm not saying he's should get fired at all. He's kind of losing the plot a little bit, I would say.
Yes. for this Texans team. You can blame some of Nick Cacerio and bringing in the right pieces and not figuring out the offensive line then then you know Ryan makes the hire of Bobby Slo from this tree and then it works out and then it doesn't >> and then despite making the playoffs you fire him and then you bring in Nick Kaye which has not worked out so far. Yeah.
And so >> surely Deikica Rimes who's not calling the defense >> series in series out.
Yeah. feels like some pressure and has to get this right at some point.
I also think they're very conservative in terms of just fourth down decisions and that type of stuff, too. So, yeah, it's you usually don't get a third crack at offensive coordinator, so they need to step up that side of the ball.
M. Jones on the opposite end. Again, the Texans aren't getting it going with their starting quarterback. Cal Shahan's getting it going with his backup quarterback to the tune of what, like his sixth start of the season. I think at this point, it's close to it.
Um, I will say though, I'm quite nervous about M. Jones handling the Texans pressure looks because the Texans are great on defense, specifically >> uh, you know, it's the Hunter and Will Anderson of it all on the outside.
Uh, and so we'll see if Big-Time Mack can stand in there.
Yeah. >> Because the Texans have allowed just 8.6 six passing points per game, the fewest in the NFL so far this season.
Man, that's crazy. Um, I think M. Jones is gonna be without his center as well. So, that's just another added wrinkle. I think they're going to get KD going in this one. And I thought on tape on the crossing routes, I thought he was moving just fine. Didn't like notice him like with a limp or anything. Just was not involved in the game plan. I think that'll change in this one. And then Jawan Jennings at least fully practicing and he's like either been in DNPs or limited. He's fully practicing, so maybe there's a little bit of a resurgence there. M. Jones, I believe, is yards per game-wise number one quarterback uh this year. Um, but he also has to do that because he's not going to run at all. So maybe like you could do worse for for M. Jones. I I view like all these guys pretty similarly. Like from Jackson Dart down to M. Jones and we'll get to Penn and Dalton's like they're fine.
Two questions. First one, does Aziz Ali Shyier make it through this entire game without getting kicked out?
And I I think also for M. Jones, could he survive the um body >> inevitable slide?
Yes, it's a fair question.
Yeah, because that's his former team, too, you know.
Yeah. Second question, I have, you know, I don't get that much time to consume tons of content out there, but some programs I have listened to have suggested that if M. Jones continues to win, when Brock Pury comes back, they're just going to stick with M. Jones as the quarterback and have him as the quarterback of the future. To me, Hayden, that is ridiculous. And I appreciate M. for what he is. But I don't think that we are living in a world where Brockie is going to lose his job to this this style of an offense. At this point, he's outplayed that to this point.
Yeah, I would say M. Jones has allowed Brock Perie to take the time it takes to heal from that injury properly so they can potentially go on a postseason run. So, it's been a cool story.
Also, with M. Jones, he's under contract next year as well. is like >> right >> they're >> they're in the red. It's guaranteed money into next year. So, he's not one of these quarterbacks that can just go somewhere else for a starting job. They would have to actually get something in return in a trade if that's the case.
Yeah, they're in a good spot because M. Jones is perfect for the scheme. I think M. Jones is a total totally fine, the 30th best quarterback in the NFL at this point and in this offense that's good enough to move the football and that's even without Ricky Pieraw and Brandon Aayuk. So, which maybe you'll get those guys back eventually. So, yeah, cool story. But Brock Party, just just watch the two, you know, when you see M. Jones throwing off edge rushers and scrambling for a first down, >> right? And I wouldn't even watch the last Brock Party start that he played because >> he was obviously dealing with an couldn't Yes. Watch last year. >> Um, and with the Matt Jones's two-year contract, which actually had void years onto it, too, >> they probably learned from the Sam Darnold thing of, oh, okay, >> we should probably add on multiple years of this rather than just like a one and done. They can go somewhere else and be the start. Yeah.
Yep. >> Okay.
Yep. >> Sorry. I just want to throw that out there. Michael Penn is questionable for this game, but here he sits as your quarterback 19. He has a knee injury. Uh it's a bone bruise, correct?
Yeah. They're calling it a bone bruise, which is sometimes associated with like PCLs and whatever. It's just depends on the severity of it. Bone bruises. It's not like the bruise that you think you have on your muscle. Like a bone bruise is like a micro fracture. Um so it really just depends on how bad it is and how risky they want to be. So, I think he's a true um 50/50 to play and I don't think that he will be moving around as well. And Michael Penn doesn't move around already and I see him kind of fading away when he's about to get hit as well. So, I'm a little bit nervous about Michael Penn in general. I would not be surprised if it's if it's Kurt Cousins. This is where Michael Penn has been in fantasy. He just, you know, you got to hit
Onfield shots to matter, and that's been a roller coaster ride so far.
Now, the Falcons are projected for 26 points. Yes. Uh, Miami has allowed the most plays of 15-plus yards in the league so far this year. The other part of this, though, is that the Falcons, according to Rich Reebar, have a 47.3% drop-back rate while playing with the lead, which is 26th in the NFL. Um, so they'll just run the ball if they're up by 10.
Yeah. Yeah, I'm expecting that. The Bejian totals are wild right now. And the Bejian can hit those, and we might see Tyler Alier for the entire fourth quarter.
Yeah, this is all true. Limited, by the way, Penn limited in all three practices. Officially questionable. This, this thing could go either way. Andy Dalton, quarterback 20. Uh, the Bills actually pressure opposing quarterbacks at the second-highest rate in the NFL. It might not feel like that when you watch because they don't have like that one standout guy, but they have, you know, Epanessa, they have Ed Oliver up the middle. Obviously, they brought in Joey Bosa this offseason. So, uh, that's a big test for Dalton if, you know, Josh Allen creates a large lead on the opposite end, and then the pass rush can just tee off on, you know, a mid-30s quarterback here.
Can we get an update on the Panthers offensive line just in general? It's been in and out across the board. Is Yeah.
So, Damen Lewis is starting back at left guard, which is huge for them. Because Austin Corbett came in off the street and played left guard. So you have left tackle Iki, left guard Damen Lewis, center Kade Ms, right guard Brady Christensen, right tackle Taylor Moden. So it's basically back to a very, very much starting caliber offense.
Yeah. Okay. Good, good, good, good. There it is. There's your Carolina Panthers minute.
Tua Tagovailoa, quarterback 21, at the Atlanta Falcons. Um, I'm not going to say I'm surprised he's this low because Tua has stunk. He's even lower in consensus rankings, by the way.
How? He is quarterback 26 in consensus rankings.
Uh, I guess to me, and I know he's thrown for less than 205 yards in five of seven starts, but we're also talking about a dome here. And right, yeah, the the Falcons, if you look at their passing totals, again, allowed a league-low 155 passing yards per game with 180 yards or fewer in all six games. I just feel like at some point though, this is all the Dolphins are going to be able to do. If the Falcons put up this amount of points, then they're just going to throw the football to Jaylen Waddle and Devon.
Okay, so let's think through this. If you were ranking him where he had zero odds of getting benched, he would be what? By Rattler, Stroud, up a couple spots. What do you put the odds that he is benched halfway through the game?
10%? 20%?
So that's probably only put it at 10%. Because I, I don't think it's going to be as miserable as it was last week against the Browns. That's bad weather on the road against a Browns defense. And while the Falcons are a very solid defense, as we've seen so far this year, kind of hit or miss. The run game obviously, they can get torched at times. Um, just the elements are not going to impact Tua here. It's like a pristine, agree element.
Yeah, it's a bounce-back spot. I have like Waddle ranked higher than I have Tua, because, and same with A.J. Brown, just because like those guys are getting the ball relentlessly, no matter who's at quarterback. Did I come into the show wanting to advocate for Tua? Talking about, no, I just think quarterback 26 is kind of ridiculous for. I mean, he's literally ranked behind Cam Ward in consensus rankings.
Yeah, I disagree with that, but barely disagree with it.
But barely. Yeah. What I'm saying is I agree with you. I'm standing up for you. I'm advocating.
Good. That's good. I needed it. I needed it.
Tyrod Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals. Uh, anything you want to add with this one, even though just before we went live, Aaron Glenn said, "Uh, I'm not telling you who the starting quarterback is because I don't want to tell you who the starting, starting quarterback is."
Yeah. The Bengals are probably shaking in their boots. Who do we have to game plan for? Is it Fields or Tyrod? Oh no. Um, I mean, it is a good matchup for either quarterback, but you don't have Garrett Wilson, and then Breece Hall, Mason Taylor are on the injury report as well. Um, both quarterbacks on the injury report. It's, it's a total mess. They're projected for 19 points. The eventual starter might rank ahead of a couple of these guys. There's bench risk for both of them. It's, it's a who's who's who at Fantasy Projections over there in New York City.
All right. Dylan Gabriel and Cam Ward close this thing out. Any thoughts on these two rookies? I'm Dylan Gabriel needs to show a little bit of something here, I gotta say.
Yes. Yeah. Okay. My question to you. Um, I will say this, Patriots, their run defense is so strong that, and I do think that the Patriots offense is good enough where you could just get crazy game script for the the Browns. You can have 40 drop backs for Dylan Gabriel, and then he's going to be fine. We're talking about Superflex here. Dylan Gabriel, Cam Ward, and I've got Brock Purdy injured, and I got Dylan Gabriel as my Superflex option. So it's like Dylan Gabriel versus Jauan Jennings, you know, like hit me with.
I think one of my Superflexes I had to start Carson Wentz on Thursday night.
It happens. It happens to the best of us. So the question is, everyone above this Superflex wise, their starts. I think Dylan Gabriel, Cam Ward, right? It's like them or Keon Coleman, is what you're saying.
You know, like, would you rather play Harold Fannon or Dylan Gabriel?
Yeah, because you get Dylan Gabriel here against, again, a Patriots defense that has talent at all three levels. Yes. Uh, and then they're almost certainly going to force you into negative game script. So, it's going to be very obvious. And his arm kind of dies down the field. I think it's, it's a cap of 15 yards.
Yeah.
And then Cam Ward against Louis's defense, right? I think this is like Superflex, or I mean, if you had a running back, I mean, if I, I don't have my running backs pulled up, but I do think Dylan Gabriel and Cam Ward versus a running back, I, I would probably go with like a decent running back.
Uh, I mean, I don't want to remind you about the running back rankings, but if we get to like flex territory here, that is.
It's bad.
Kenneth Gainwell is running back 34 rankings.
Better than that. Better than that. Uh, Kangai, running back 31 in consensus rankings.
Yeah. I mean, okay. Woody Marks versus Cam Ward. It's like, all right, what are you doing there?
Yeah. Okay. Well, let's talk about tight ends here. Um, the first tier have really separated themselves. Tyler Higbee, George Kittle, Jake Ferguson, Tucker Kraft, Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert. Um, I think I heard Steve W on NFL Daily mention that Tucker Kraft, when he talks to defensive coordinators that play the Packers, he is their most feared offensive player on the Packers because he can turn a little into a lot. He's an absolute handful. You can't just match him up like other tight ends. And while he doesn't run, you know, the same route tree as someone that we're talking about with Tyler Higbee, uh, in a different offense, he could. And he's just so much fun to watch on a weekly basis.
Completely agree. In my write-up, uh, I just listed off the top five all-around best tight ends on tape only. I think Sam LaPorta, number one. I would go Kittle, two, and I would go Kraft, Goedert, Higbee. I think that's that's my order. So, I think I think he's the third-best tight end in the league. Him versus Goedert, I think, is is pretty fascinating. But, um, all these, uh, tight ends are projected in the 40s. The exception being Tyler Higbee's at 57 and a half receiving yards. Um, the Travis Kelce stuff, there's no floor, but you're back to being projected for 30 points a game. And he gets Bobby Wagner and Luvu, who you've talked about a ton. And the Commanders allowed three different tight ends to reach 15 half PPR points, which is difficult to do in this economy. Um, so he's a good spot, uh, in general. Uh, and then Dallas Goedert, he just had nine for 110 and a touchdown against the Giants, uh, just two weeks ago. And we don't know about A.J. Brown. So, I think like that's the top six for me. Um, and then I think it's a tier down to the rest of the group.
I really hope George Kittle gets it going in the passing game. Like you and I think you could have an awesome rest of the season.
He was incredibly effective in the run-blocking department. Uh, I don't have any leagues that have my run-blocking points per game.
No, not many. Not many.
Not many.
Okay. On the next tier, I think Cade Otton is actually a big talking point here.
Okay. Because when they had to go into kind of YOLO passing the football, Otton and Dalton Schultz are kind of two peas in a pod in a way that it's like check and release, working over the middle of the field, shorter outbreaking routes when the big-time downfield progression things take off the coverage and they're open, uh, against linebackers and safeties.
I'll even say there's a little Jake Ferguson to this, you know, like the Bucs are projected for a lot of points. I think Otton is a totally, totally fine to good tight end. They don't take him off the field, and he can catch the ball effectively, and whenever he is throwing the ball, he's a good receiver. So, they're running out of options like Cade. Once you remove Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, he's been a top five to 10, uh, fantasy tight ends without question, dating back to last year. And then last week, season-high 8.6 expected points, and now was with both of those guys out as well. So, I think he's a rock-solid play.
Okay. Last question. Right now, you have Cole Kmet as tight end 13. While we've been doing the show, Cole Kmet has been ruled out for this game. Does that make you want to move Cole Kmet up? This is the real chance for a post-bye rookie bump here for our guy Cole Kmet.
I mean, which, by the way, the Bears have been seeing what Tyler Higbee has done. They've been seeing what Darren Waller's been doing. I'm not coming saying that like Darren Waller should have been taken with a, you know, top 15 overall pick. Well,
I'm just pre-draft.
I got you. Based on where, where opinions were. Cole Kmet has the talent to do something. This team just has so much other talent that they're kind of dealing with at this point that Kmet to me hasn't gotten a platform to shine yet, but this could be that platform.
Yeah. And a couple of guys ranked ahead of them. So, I got Harold Fannon. So, I'm still waiting on David and Jalen Njoku news. Don Kmet, don't know about his status with with the, um, oblique. And then Evan Engram's been hit or miss as well. So, I, I do think there's a chance by the end of the week, once we get final injury reports and everything, that I do move Cole Kmet up a little. I was already largely expecting him to miss. Um, but like you said, there's an avenue for him to go crazy here. And just one data point that's somewhat relevant. Sam LaPorta, during his rookie season, from week eight on, he was the tight end four. You know, that's exactly what this offense is. Now, that was a Lions team that was better than this version of the Bears. But like, would it be surprising if I'd said, hey, Cole Kmet from this point forward finishes the tight end six? Like, that would not be that, that crazy. So, it's, it's now or.
And if he performs well, then he can just overtake Cole Kmet as like the lone tight end.
Dunzo.
Yep. Yep.
Completely agree.
All right, there it is. Thanks everyone for watching. Really, really appreciate it. We'll be back on Sunday morning with the Start Set Show. If you have any more questions in mind, be sure to join us then. Go play an underdog sometime this weekend. Up. We'll talk to y'all soon. See you.