Transcription
Bitcoin is at 67,200 dollars, and for many people, the rebound we had up to around 69,300 was something totally linked to Donald Trump, the potential de-escalations between Iran and the United States. Except that, well, I'll tell you, that was not the case at all. It was a very important liquidity zone that we had, and so I was talking about it with my brief, with my students, and precisely here. I very likely leave you with the fact that in the last few minutes, we had quite a few traders who entered positions, and who entered selling positions. Well, potentially, we could come to want to liquidate them. So we have a peak at the level of 69,000 dollars, and well, potentially, we could come to recover them just above, you know. Recover the 69,200 for example. We liquidate the sellers who are a bit too aggressive, and we go back down. So you see, this is really something that is quite classic on Bitcoin. We saw it, consequently, on the order flow part with just here a massive increase in open interest that you saw just there. This massive increase in open interest that happened precisely at the moment when the price fell, and in a context where funding rates had decreased. So bearish funding on an increase in open interest. We can therefore say that we have a large number of traders who have entered short, and so potentially, the market will seek to do what? To punish them. So if we have traders who entered here, here, here, here short, well, what will they do? They will place their stop orders just above the previous high. The previous high is at 69,000 dollars. It is just here. And so we had a good probability of coming to recover it. And so that's what I explained in this video. Be careful, don't misunderstand me. This rise is a rise, if it exists, you know, at the time you see that we were, when I sent this message, it was March 27th, it was a week ago, and I explained that, be careful, we had the possibility of coming to recover this zone, and that it was a technical retracement. So up to here, for the moment, we have had exactly this scenario. For the moment, we are returning to a bearish sentiment with, you see, on the decline, a sentiment that is becoming bearish again, funding rates that are decreasing again. So there is a possibility of coming to search for this zone again, potentially during the weekend. You know that today is a public holiday in the United States, it's Good Friday. So we are not expecting any particular volatility, or at least a clear directional recovery. What we can expect between now and Monday is precisely a hunt for liquidity, coming to recover stop orders on one side, stop orders on the other, and likely heading in a different direction than the real market direction. And the real market direction. You know that I expose my real opinion, my point of view on the market. I think it's much healthier when you explain things rather than just explaining different scenarios, because you know the scenarios. Either it stagnates, or it goes up, or it goes down. Okay? But what I propose to you is, given my indicators, and I have quite a few of them, I propose to give you my point of view, and then it's up to you to judge if you find it relevant or not. So, here, in my opinion, we could come to recover a little liquidity, perhaps continue this bullish movement a bit, even if you see that here on the slight price rise, we are already in a phase where funding rates have risen significantly. We were here with very bearish funding rates at the time of April 2nd, so yesterday afternoon, early evening, we had very bearish funding rates at the time we were at 67,100 dollars, and since then, we have been stagnating at the price level, we are still at 67,100, but funding rates have risen very significantly, and they have risen at a time when funding rates have not decreased and have not increased. So for the moment, we have an equilibrium between buyers and sellers on derivative contracts. You know that for the moment, this is what is driving the market, because there is more volume on the spot markets. There is more interest on the spot markets. This is also visible here on the spot CVD. There is more interest. There is more going on. You see the CVD is completely flat. There are no more buyers, no more sellers, nothing is happening. On the Black Rock side, you see that there are no more flows. On the Black Rock side, we see it here at the ETF level, but it's dead calm. It's even more visible, I find, on Glass Node. You see here, here, I'll show you a bit all the ETF flows. So the histograms when they are green show enormous financial inflows coming from traditional finance. When we have very red histograms, it shows exactly outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. And you see that as we move forward, the amplitudes of these histograms are decreasing. And in both directions. So there are fewer and fewer sales, fewer and fewer purchases. It's logical since volatility is compressing. We have fewer and fewer major technical movements. We are in a consolidation. We have been in our range between 63,000 and 74,000 dollars for a while now. Well, it's been since February 6th. So it's starting to be quite a long time since it's early April. So we've been working this zone for 2 months. It's been precisely 56 days. And you see that we have retested the lower part of this range. We have retested the upper part, a bullish deviation, and so technically, all the conditions are met to resume a bearish movement and potentially go to seek the bottom of the range, with, consequently, coming to recover technically this bottom of the range to recover all the liquidations that are below. And you see that there are a lot, a lot of liquidations below, you know. The zone of 62 to 64,000 dollars, you see that it is loaded with liquidations, and so we have many traders to recover. I find that it's even more visible on this monthly chart. So, we are on Coinglass, and you will see on a monthly timescale, we have many liquidity zones located just here between 65 and 62,000 dollars, just below us. And you see this staircase here, it's very, very representative of the overall market sentiment. You have liquidities located just below us, precisely each time a little bit below, a little bit below. And as soon as we start to rise, we see liquidities located just below the previous low, which shows that there is a very strong buy-the-dip sentiment. And that's why each time, well, we come to recover it. A little bit lower, we reconsolidate. Hop, a little bit lower, we reconsolidate. And you see that here, we are already in the process of recreating an important liquidity zone below us. In 2 weeks, it's really striking, you'll see. So, we had a large liquidity zone located just above 69,000 to 60 to 70,000. We didn't come to recover it. So for me, there is ultimately little probability of coming to recover it, you know. It's exactly like the 72,000 one. We had liquidity located just above us. We didn't come to recover it. So that shows you that there is a very strong selling force keeping Bitcoin down. And here, well, that's exactly what we have. We had a rise from 65,000 dollars to 69,200, 69,300, as I had specified in my video for my investment circle, and you see that we came to recover this zone of 69,300, leaving the zone just above intact. So for me, there is ultimately very little probability of coming to recover it. We have an order block, in fact, that is located just here. We'll switch to short term. You see the zone of 68,200, that's the zone where we had a drop. We had a price stagnation, and then suddenly, boom, a drop. So for me, there is a possibility of coming to recover the zone from 68,200 to perhaps 68,600. For me, this is a zone that could serve precisely as a major resistance for the price before seeing a reversal. So this is the scenario I'm playing, and I'm playing it because I have many other indicators, notably on-chain, that allow me to confirm this scenario. You see it here at the whale level. We have here at the whale level, whales selling the rebounds. The red histograms show the variations in whale positions compared to retail. So here, we are comparing large portfolios to small portfolios. When we have very large green histograms, it means that whales are buying massively when retail is selling. And conversely, when we have large red histograms, it means that whales are selling while retail is buying. You know that you always want to be positioned on the side of the large portfolios because they are the ones who move the market. It's not necessarily because they are smarter, even if globally they tend to be a bit smarter because they are better accompanied. And so, we will tend to follow them. You buy when there are large green histograms, well, you buy the bottom. You sell when you have large red histograms, and well, you sell it, consequently, on technical rebounds. So that's exactly what happened during the November-December 2025 phase, and that's exactly what is happening at the moment in the February-March 2026 phase. And that's why, when we were at the level of 76,000 dollars, I explained in my investment circle, but I think I also did it on YouTube, or perhaps a little later, I explained that it was rather, for me, a technical rebound and a Wyckoff deviation, so what is called an UTAD, so a Wyckoff distribution phase in which we resume a bearish movement. Obviously, this chart is very interesting. Well, it's also paid, you know. So it costs about 100 euros per month to access this type of chart on the Alfractal platform. And it's obviously one of the added values of my investment circle to be able to access all of this for a lower cost. Well, when you are subscribed, you pay the subscription and you have access to this data from Alfractal, but also to this data from Glassnode. For example, here, we have the accumulation trend score which shows us that here, well, on the rise that showed us a price increase up to 76,000 dollars, we had colors becoming more and more yellow, and that showed, consequently, an increasingly intense distribution phase. So more and more large portfolios were selling, and this is symptomatic of a UTAD phase where, consequently, the probability of a reversal was very high. If you were caught by this phase, you need to, well, you need to question yourself. It means that you didn't see this kind of indicator, whether it was this one on the accumulation trend score, whether it was this one on whales versus retail, but also here, we'll see it at the funding level, but on the funding rates, well, you see it right here, the funding rates had gone back to becoming more and more bullish when we went back to the level of 76,000 dollars on March 15th. And so this showed that precisely there was a bullish sentiment that was too rapid. When we go back up to resistances and when we make breakouts, we want breakouts in contexts where people don't believe in this breakout. What we want is a dominant sentiment being a dead cat bounce, a false rebound, be careful, a fakeout, and so on. And you see that, well, for the moment, on the two breakouts we've had, so the one at 97,000 dollars that we made at the beginning of January 2026, and the one at 76,000 that we made on March 15th, we have exactly the same type of scenario with a much too aggressive rise in bullish sentiment from retail. So these were things that obviously needed to be observed. We also had something primordial to look at, which was the behavior of whales, and you have it here on CryptoQuant, which is another tool, forgive me, which allows us to observe the behavior of whales. And you see that the whales here at 76,000 dollars, what did they do? They divested, they completely divested their portfolios. You see here, it's the number of Bitcoins held by whales, this pink curve. And you see that on this Bitcoin price rise, we had a decrease in the number of Bitcoins held. Now, we have a small increase in the number of Bitcoins held, but look by comparison to what happened before, we had a very significant increase during the range of December 2025. Yes, that was very tricky, even for myself. And you see that here, we have a stagnation. For the moment, there's a slight recovery in the last few days, but for the moment, it's very, very weak. And globally, the apparent demand, which groups the demand of everyone, whales, MicroStrategy, ETFs, small portfolios, Bitcoin OGs, old Bitcoiners, etc. We have an apparent demand, and you see it in blue, which remains negative. This means that globally, we have fewer buyers than sellers. And this is important to understand, and it's important to understand this to understand market dynamics. The market is currently in a buyer deficit. If you have more buyers than sellers, the price goes up. If you have more sellers than buyers, the price goes down. It's as simple as that. And today, we are in a phase where prices are falling due to a lack of buyers, since we still have as many sellers. We have small portfolios that are quite shaky, we have very, very little volume, we have whales that are buying timidly or selling, depending on the cohorts. And we have absolutely no flow from ETFs, from retail, etc. So this prevents us from building a bullish dynamic, and it means that we are simply moving from liquidity pocket to liquidity pocket. And that's why, in these phases, the analysis of liquidity, the analysis of order flow, takes on its full meaning, because in a phase where the spot CVD is also flat and also, consequently, non-existent, we have absolutely no trend on the spot CVD. Well, that shows us one thing: it shows us that the price behavior is solely aimed at liquidating aggressive buyers and sellers in one direction and then the other. So we make a bearish deviation, a bullish deviation. So that's why you can be relatively easily trapped, because it's a behavior that is obviously designed for that. The market is a trap. The market's goal is to trap you. And that's why, in these phases, for your long-term investment portfolio, in my opinion, it's important not to be too active. You must keep your cool and stay out of the market during phases of uncertainty. Or at least, if you are invested or completely out, completely invested, if you are 50/50, etc., well, you must maintain your position as long as you do not have clear signals of reversal or continuation. And for me, this is really, really essential during these phases. The bias of action, the desire to absolutely sell, buy back, sell, buy back, you will consume all your energy doing that. You will be trapped a large number of times. You will lose a lot of capital. And this is obviously something that is very harmful to you and very harmful to the future cycle. We are in a full bear market, you know. Well, now it's a given. We are in a full bear market. It's been several months now. Fractal nature, you see it thanks to this halfFractal chart which shows us the 4-year cycles broken down into short-term sub-cycles, themselves broken down into accumulation, markup, distribution, and bear market phases. You see that it repeats itself, and that we are in the last short-term phase, that is to say, the distribution and bear market phase. We are even in the last phase of the bear market. We are in the last 5 months that will lead us, if we believe in fractal nature, to our bottom. Well, this zone is important because it's the zone you need to keep in mind to preserve your capital. You absolutely must protect your capital during these phases. So if you want to take advantage of the downward phases, to take advantage of the volatility that can be tricky for some but beneficial for others. That's why we use my partner Bitunix, which you see here, right here on the screen. So this is the partner who accompanies me, my exclusive partner on the Medusa channel, and so it's my partner who hosts my short-term strategy, which via copy trading benefits my members of my investment circle. So it allows them to be exposed to volatility automatically, so obviously without psychological bias, since you don't have to manage positions yourself. So here, you see that the short-term strategy is in a short position. It entered a short position precisely at 66,800 dollars. So, for the moment, it must be at break-even. You see, almost at break-even. What's interesting is that this strategy is managed automatically. So it takes trades and closes trades automatically. You see that here, well, the distribution phase at 76,000 dollars, well, a short entered here at 72,400, which was closed precisely at this low. So, we had a closure here with a trade at +10% and 430 dollars of USDT. So this is a portfolio that must be around, you see, 10,000 dollars, approximately. A short position that appeared here at 68,800, which was consequently closed here almost at break-even. So, 0.10% loss. You see the advantage of this is that it's a strategy that is managed automatically. So here, a short position that is executing. So the long position that was opened here, so long position taken here, so closure of the short position and taking of the long position almost instantly. Here the position is closed with a small winning trade, and so on. In short, this is a strategy that allows you to play volatility without being exposed. The advantage of algorithmic trading like this short-term strategy is being able to benefit from entries and exits at any time of day or night. You see that here, for example, we had a bearish excess. The strategy decided to close the trade upwards. You see, but it's the time of completion, so the time of the trade, it was 1 am. So if you are not precisely at 1 am in front of your computer to be able to close your trade here, well, the risk is that you see the trade that was entered here in a short position right here at 66,500 and which closed the position precisely here to benefit from a gain phase, well, if you don't do it, you risk seeing the price rise again and get stopped out with, consequently, the rise in Bitcoin's price. So, this is important, it's a strategy that for the moment is rather pertinent. You see over the last 30 days, well, there are ups and downs, obviously, there are drawdowns. We reach a drawdown of 5.35%. It doesn't win all the time. You see that out of 9 trades, it won 5 and lost 4. So that makes a global PNL, so an ROI of 1.6%. If we talk about PNL, we are at, you see, a PNL of, well, 160 dollars on this portfolio. So, for me, it's important to dissociate the two approaches. A trading approach, a manual or algorithmic trading approach, depending on what you decide to do. And a long-term approach. But this long-term approach must generate a minimum of action. You must make a minimum of decisions and wait for real confirmations to reposition yourself. The psychological bias that plays in these phases, I told you, is a bias of inaction and a bias of action that is really, really very, very painful and very, very destructive during these phases. Bollinger Bands, I wanted to talk to you about that from a technical point of view. Bollinger Bands are currently quite tight. We are at the bottom of these Bollinger Bands, you know. I remind you that this is important for knowing the continuation of the movement, especially in a context where I will show you on the choppiness index, the turbulence index that you see right here, which is becoming, which is becoming very compressed, you know. You know that this index works a bit like a spring, a bit like Bollinger Bands, which indicates to us the moments when volatility is too compressed and when we have a significant probability of having a resolution of this compression in one direction or the other, and therefore a significant return of volatility. And so, for that, what's important to look at is several other indicators to try to probabilize the movement that will happen. Here, this indicator tells us "Be careful, there is volatility to come." Is it rather bullish or bearish volatility? Well, first of all, Bollinger Bands, you know that you need to look at which zone, in which zone we are. Here, we are in the lower zone of Bollinger Bands. So, we have a higher probability of a bearish continuation. And to corroborate this theory, we will look at Ichimoku on daily. And on Ichimoku, well, it's undeniable. You see that we have come to recover this, this Tenkan that you see here in blue. We have come to recover the contact of this Tenkan at the level of 68,500 dollars, the Tenkan. And so we have come to recover the 63,000, the 69,300, sorry, which also corresponds to the zone of our SSA, our Chikou Span A, which shows us that precisely here we were rejected, we came to recover this zone and we weakened almost instantly and we went back down. You see that it's not trivial, we simply came to make a pullback of this trendline zone. If I show you, well, this trendline zone. Obviously, you draw it as you wish. If we draw it like this with the contact zones of Friday, February 6th, Tuesday, February 24th, Saturday, February 28th, and Sunday, March 22nd, you see that here we simply came to make a pullback before going back down. This is obviously something that is rather bad news because here we have just confirmed that the trendline zone here, which was a support, is now becoming a resistance, and therefore the strongest probability is a continuation to come and recover, as I told you, the liquidity zone that extends from 62 to 63,000 dollars, and potentially, if we go a little further, you will see it, particularly here on the orders of the main whales. You see that we have a visually impactful cluster that appears, it's this one, the zone of 60,600 to 58,500 dollars, which is a zone where whales will massively try to buy the dip. In any case, you see that we have a certain number of rather significant orders. You see it here on the right side of the screen. 61,000 dollars, we have 7 million dollars positioned on Binance. On Coinbase, we have 5 million dollars. At 60,000 dollars, we have almost 50 million dollars in open positions. So, in short, in this zone, from 60,500 to 58,500, we have, over a price range of about 3,000 dollars, 100 million dollars in buy orders. So, I told you and I repeat it, but these are iceberg orders. That is to say, well, here we see 100 million dollars, but it could mean that there are 2 billion. It's just that when you place an order of 30 million, you wait for it to be completely executed, and then automatically, a new order of 30 million will be placed. This allows you not to show that you have 5 billion dollars in liquidity waiting at these levels. It's rather interesting because otherwise, order books being public in most cases, order books being public, sorry, allows us to see this kind of indicator directly, and whales still try to camouflage their orders a bit, even if they are forced to leave orders lying around. So you see a whale that has a billion, it will leave 30 million. Well, it says to itself, well, 30 million is not too impressive for the market. However, if it left an order of 1 billion, you can imagine that everyone would spot it instantly. On the macroeconomic level, we have had quite positive news in recent days, particularly on Wednesday with the non-farm payrolls which came out higher. So what's interesting is to see that the market is holding up rather well. So unemployment is currently rather controlled, the employment rate is also rather controlled. We have an unemployment rate that will be announced for March at 2:30 PM today. I told you, the market is closed today in the United States. So we should not have any major reactions, even if Bitcoin remains the only asset that will be traded today. For me, it's rather unlikely to have real directional movements in the coming days. Especially since, well, next week we will also have interesting news. So I'm waiting for it to load. You see, we will have interesting news with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI index, which will be released on Monday. We will also have the PCE next Thursday. So I expect a resumption of directional movements more from next week than on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, which should be a bit calmer in terms of volatility. And so this should allow us to confirm the thesis of a resumption of volatility from Monday, and therefore a compression of volatility over 3 more days, which could allow us to have Bollinger Bands that tighten even more, a choppiness index that tightens even more, to have a directional resumption thereafter. So, at the level of other indicators, yes, I also wanted to show you at the macroeconomic level, we have, consequently, on the announcements that have been made, macroeconomic figures for the current week, we have interesting news that show us that, in addition to this, inflation is rather controlled, you know. I remind you that we had reached 1.75% inflation on an annualized basis. We are back to 1.34. For the moment, it's quite controlled, which is quite surprising given that the price of oil is skyrocketing, you know. You saw, we are at 110 dollars for WTI, that is to say, Texas oil. For North Sea oil, we are at 110 dollars. In short, you see that oil is strongly increasing, 13% increase in one day. There are effective rumors of escalation or at least continuation of this conflict. Iran has denied the fact that they would negotiate with the United States for a ceasefire. There has been a complete denial. So we had talked about this zone of 100 to 120 dollars for WTI which had been tested by a wick on Monday, March 9th. We had reached a range high at 102 dollars. We broke this range. It is highly probable to have a potential pullback and a re-working of this zone before a potential resolution. Either a deviation, reintegration, and a bearish resumption with a resolution of this conflict with potential negotiations, a ceasefire, a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, or a bullish continuation that could bring us back to the famous level of 150 dollars per barrel that was tested at the time during the 2008 crisis. So, this is really the objective that everyone has in mind on the market. Especially since, well, with the printing press and the inflation rate we've had, 150 dollars in 2008 is much more than 150 dollars in 2026, you know. If you take US Oil and divide it by the monetary mass WWM of NS, well, if you take that, you have the curve that is modulated, the price modulated by monetary printing. Well, you see that the 150 dollars of 2008 are much, much higher than the 110 dollars of 2026. And this is due to the fact that we have had significant inflation for almost 20 years. So, that's a bit about liquidation, I told you about it, order book pressure. So we have a little buying now in the current price zones, between 66,000 and 67,000 dollars. That's why we are stabilizing, but for the moment it's already weakening a bit. You see that there are already fewer and fewer buyers on Binance Spot. We'll look at Coinbase, but for the moment on Coinbase, there aren't too many buyers either. You see that the buyers who positioned themselves at 66,000, 66,000 dollars, have already sold at 69,000. So the zone that I myself identified as a significant resistance and shorting zone, well, you see that I wasn't the only one to identify it. I don't have all the knowledge, not at all. I just read the market, and the market told us that there was a zone for shorting and taking profits. Well, there you go, the participants did exactly that, whether on Coinbase or on Binance. And so this translates into a return of bearish sentiment currently. So, I'll stop there for this video. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to let us know, and then, and then that's it. Alright, for the bonus, I'll just show you a small indicator that I showed to the private community. It's Friday, I'm giving you a little gift. It's this Teser Ratio Channel. This indicator is very important. It's an indicator that I share with the private community. It's an indicator that shows us in daily the rhythms of stablecoin monetary printing modulated by the momentum of this modulated printing of the price, and you see that it's an indicator that allows us to very effectively have the trends of stablecoin financial flows on Bitcoin. To what extent we have financial inflows coming from stablecoins or not. And you see that currently we are making a local top. We had our crossover precisely on Sunday, March 29th, and these are signals that arrive quite rarely, but when they arrive, they are very relevant. They arrived precisely on January 21st, January 23rd, we had a crossover. At the time, we were at 90,000 dollars, we had a 33% drop that brought us to 60,000. The last crossovers also took place on October 12th. October 12th, well, you see we were precisely at 115,000. Well, I don't need to tell you the rest. We had a crossover here also at 119,000 dollars. We also had a crossover here on May 26th at 111,000 dollars. In short, you see the logic, and conversely, obviously, the bullish crossover zones are rather bottom zones. You see, you've seen them here, here, and here. That is to say, the zone of 108 which then led us to 126, the zone of 86 which then led us to 98, the zone of 63 which then led us to 76. In short, you see, this indicator is hyper, hyper relevant. So, there you go, that was the little bonus indicator. For those who want to join us, you have the possibility to do so via the links in the description. We still have the possibility to welcome you into the investment circle. So don't hesitate at all, you have all the links in the description to understand what we do inside this circle. And if you have questions, you also have the possibility to contact me via Telegram. For those who want to join my partner Bitunix, you have the possibility to do so via the links in the description, and even get a free training in technical analysis, to be able to analyze the market, Bollinger Bands, Ichimoku, and so on. You have all of that for free for those who subscribe and create an account on Bitunix. It's an exchange that has the particularity of being non-KYC. So it's rather very interesting, especially in these contexts of frequent data leaks. So, if that interests you, don't hesitate to do it. The short-term strategy is obviously reserved for our investment circle, but you can already trade yourself with futures. You even have the possibility to trade stocks now. You have, in particular, Tesla stocks, Coinbase stocks, and so on, which are accessible via Bitunix. So, don't hesitate at all. So, I thank you. I wish you an excellent end of the day, an excellent weekend, and we'll meet again next week for a public video.