Transcription
Wow, General Rangsi, General Rangsi, you must be considered accurate once again, in my opinion. Because General Rangsi had predicted, many days ago, that the next strait to be closed would be the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and the next battle would be in the Red Sea. It turns out that today it has happened. Yes, General Rangsi, again. That is, the Houthis have fired upon a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea, in the Red Sea, Red Sea. It has truly happened. And where will this lead now? Yes, General Rangsi.
First, before we go into this, we must, I would like to tell you the background of the Houthi forces and Saudi Arabia. The Houthi forces were formed because they opposed the Yemeni government due to problems with the country's administration. This led to the formation of the Houthi forces. Once formed, there was fighting. After that, Saudi Arabia supported the Yemeni government, and Iran came to support the Houthi forces. This has been a ceasefire for 4 years. Over the past 4 years, there have been peace negotiations between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. But today, an incident has occurred in the Red Sea, which I say the Red Sea is a connecting point between Asia and Europe, Europe and Asia. Because north of the Red Sea is the Suez Canal. From the Mediterranean Sea, it enters the Suez Canal. From the Suez Canal, it passes through the Red Sea. From the Red Sea, through the Bab al-Mandab Strait. From the Bab al-Mandab Strait, it comes out at the Gulf of Aden. This is a route through which 12% of energy must pass through this strait. As for Hormuz, 20% of energy must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has previously announced that if the United States attacks Iranian assets, whether it be power plants or transportation routes that are civilian targets, Iran will have the Houthis immediately close the Bab al-Mandab Strait. But today, it is not considered completely closed. It's just that the Houthis used the term "blockade of the Red Sea," especially targeting Saudi Arabian oil tankers. Saudi Arabia may not be able to pass through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, but may have to go back to the Suez Canal and detour back to the Cape of Good Hope. I believe this will affect the cost of energy prices because the shipping cost if they travel that route, that route that has to pass the Cape, will take an additional 14 days. Now, from this point on, we must continue to monitor how the Houthis' actions develop, whether they will proceed to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait like Iran closed Hormuz. If they close it completely, meaning all ships must seek permission from the Houthis, and anyone who disobeys will be fired upon, like Iran did. If that happens, I see that the global economy will severely decline. Oil, which they have already calculated, if there is a naval battle in the Bab al-Mandab Strait like Hormuz, oil will be prepared at $150 per barrel. And if it's worse, $200 per barrel. What will that cause? First, inflation will skyrocket worldwide. Second, the supply chain, as I mentioned, the strait is not just for energy. Goods from Asia to Europe, goods from Europe to Asia, including petrochemicals, must pass through this strait. Therefore, the supply chain will collapse. This is a severe impact if it is added to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. From now on, anything can happen.
Mr. Patchara: Yes.
But the important thing is that the global economy will enter a state of severe recession. First, energy prices. Second, inflation. Third, the supply chain. All of this will cause the entire world to decline more severely and faster economically.
Yes. Let's talk about Thailand first, regarding the economic downturn. Mr. Rungsi had previously predicted that even if the situation improved and Iran and the United States could talk, the inertia of the bad situation was going to hit Thailand's economy around October, as you said. Even if there were no violent incidents, now there are violent incidents, and it seems like it won't stop. Will this be stronger and faster?
General Rungsi: It depends on how the Houthis will close the Bab al-Mandab Strait. If they close it permanently like Hormuz, any ship that disobeys will be fired upon. Oil is now at $97.
Mr. Patchara: Yes, $96, $97.
General Rungsi: Therefore, next week, if the intensity increases at this strait, I see it going above $100. And if there is a clash, if the United States deploys the Fifth Fleet to operate, perhaps to blockade the Gulf of Aden, I see it going up to $120, $130, $140. Mr. Patchara, you have received some information that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz so far has had a relatively small impact because all countries have used their own oil reserves. But as far as I know, today, oil reserves are almost depleted in every country. Even the United States, which has one of the largest oil reserves in the world, will be depleted by August. And if you think that oil reserves are almost gone, every country will definitely need oil to buy to replenish the reserves that have been used and for daily consumption. And if transportation cannot get through both straits, I ask, will the oil price not stop at $150? If the situation I described above occurs, they say there is a chance of reaching $200. Mr. Patchara, if it reaches $150, we will barely be able to fill a liter of gasoline for 70-80 baht. If it goes up to $200, it will be like filling a liter of gasoline for 100 baht, Mr. Patchara. This is what we will have to follow from now on. The first round of price increases since February 28th, oil has not reached $150 yet. It's hovering around $110, not even $120 well. But this time, they say that at a minimum, $120 might be seen. And if General Rungsi says $150, it might be seen, or even $200 might be seen. There is a possibility. But now, Donald Trump, is he playing it cool, or what? It's like he's talking about domestic politics, saying that Americans don't need to worry about oil. They will accelerate production in Texas to use domestically. There are two major sources. They will use them. And from abroad, they will get it from Venezuela. Something like that. Is this just political talk? Does it mean there are problems too? He has to tell Americans like that, doesn't he?
General Rungsi: No, I see it this way. Increasing production capacity or getting oil from anywhere, everyone has production capacity. Increasing production capacity is not something that can be done in an instant. Mr. Patchara. Especially the oil in Venezuela, as far as I know, is dirty oil, which only a few refineries in the world can refine. Therefore, we have to keep watching. If the oil reserves of all countries decrease and the Bab al-Mandab Strait has problems like the Strait of Hormuz, it will be a big problem. And if oil prices rise uncontrollably, what follows is inflation, and a recessionary state. It will affect the whole world. I even see it this way: if the war expands in the Middle East, it will reach our region, the Andaman Sea. What I am worried about, and have always said, is if a naval battle occurs in the Strait of Malacca, then it will be even worse. Because the Strait of Malacca is not just for energy. Petrochemicals, agricultural products, industrial goods, raw materials, the supply chain passes through here much more than the two straits.
Mr. Patchara: Both northbound and southbound.
General Rungsi: Yes. And it connects to the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, which are the main oceans of the world. Don't think it's impossible. It can happen. Everyone at that time, when there were 14 points, said the war was over, nothing else. How did it turn out? Two weeks later, it's back, and it's worse. Moreover, the chance of closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait is greater than the previous clash, isn't it?
Mr. Patchara: Don't think it's impossible, viewers. Because General Rungsi told me even before there was any sign of a tendency to close the second strait, after the Strait of Hormuz, which is the Bab al-Mandab Strait. But at that time, General Rungsi even said that the next step is to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and the next step after that is to watch the Strait of Malacca, which might be the next strait in line. Even when there was no sign at all. Now, the signs are increasing. Now, if we look at the current indicators, are there more signs that it might spread to closing the Strait of Malacca? General Rungsi?
General Rungsi: It's like this. Don't forget that at the Bab al-Mandab Strait, there are things that are essential and important to the global economy: 7 underwater cables. I see it this way: if a third party hits the underwater cables, boom! The internet system collapses, the money transfer system collapses. Oh, that would be serious. Because don't forget, Mr. Patchara, these events, underwater cables being cut, have happened during the Russia-Ukraine war. Someone blew up gas pipelines, someone destroyed underwater cables. But at that time, they were still unimportant cables that could be repaired. Therefore, today I see it this way: the war in the Middle East, the indiscriminate attacks, and now civilian targets, and the real tit-for-tat attacks, to the extent that America has to move all its military forces to Jordan, but they are still not out of range of rockets. Today, the United States itself is preparing ships, preparing refueling aircraft in large numbers, not less than 50. This indicates that the United States wants a continuous war. And what I know is that the United States has decided to destroy Iran's underground weapons depots. Especially recently, the US Department of War has requested approval from Congress for the budget for year 70, 50 trillion baht. If calculated in Thai baht, Mr. Patchara, it's enormous. They requested 50 trillion baht, which is 1.5 trillion dollars. And Congress concluded that the expenditures the US government has made for the war from February 28th until now have been 1 trillion baht, Mr. Patchara. Therefore, the fact that the US Department of War is requesting a budget for year 70 from Congress of 50 trillion baht means that the United States has opened a major war and will sustain it for a long time. Look at the enormous budget. Compared to just the defense budget, it is 17 times ours, Mr. Patchara.
Mr. Patchara: Yes.
General Rungsi: This is why, from now on, we must follow whether the war will expand. As I said, if the Bab al-Mandab Strait is permanently closed, like Hormuz, and there are clashes, the disaster will begin immediately.
Mr. Patchara: Hmm. If we look at the real target, please, General Rungsi.
General Rungsi: And there will be a major naval battle in the Gulf of Aden, the Gulf of Oman, and the Indian Ocean. At that point, I see it this way: the United States will have to draw China into it. Because Iran is an ally of China. The United States knows that Iran receives support in terms of weapons, equipment, or technology from China, Russia, and North Korea. Therefore, the chance that the United States will use the excuse of blocking the Andaman Sea to block the Strait of Malacca is possible. Because if they block the Andaman Sea, like they blocked the Gulf of Oman, enormous cargo ships will definitely have problems. That will definitely make China suffer. Because 80% of the goods that China needs to transport to China, whether it's energy or raw materials, must pass through this strait. 80% of it. Therefore, China will definitely get involved.
Mr. Patchara: Because China, because China will definitely be affected. Don't think it's impossible. Because don't forget, America has a strategy called the Indo-Pacific. A strategy. Just 2-3 days ago, news began to emerge that the US Department of Defense revealed information claiming that China and Russia have supported Iran in the war.
Mr. Patchara: Ah, this is equivalent to a prelude, and it could be a reason to draw China in, right?
General Rungsi: It's called an excuse. The United States will implement its Indo-Pacific strategy. And in the Indo-Pacific strategy, they clearly state that they will blockade China both economically and militarily. Therefore, if they come to blockade the Strait of Malacca, it means they will claim that China is helping Iran. Therefore, the United States needs to implement its Indo-Pacific strategy. Now, if that really happens, the countries that will share the same fate will be in a lot of trouble, Mr. Patchara. Let me list them: Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Khmer, Philippines, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Philippines, South Korea, Japan, North Korea. All of them, Mr. Patchara. They are on the route where a naval battle is likely to occur, from the Andaman Sea, the Strait of Malacca, the Gulf of Thailand, the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, the Korean Peninsula. This is why...
Mr. Patchara: Hmm.
General Rungsi: It's a big issue. And today we are starting to see that from the Strait of Hormuz, it has moved to the Bab al-Mandab Strait. And finally, if America doesn't stop attacking Iran, Iran will attack US military bases, whether in Kuwait, Bahrain, or Jordan. Finally, the Houthis will have to follow the plan. Because the latest news I received, this news I can confirm, Iran has sent both rockets and drones to the Houthis in large quantities, ready to be used to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Mr. Patchara: What kind of rockets? I'm imagining rockets that can be used to fire at US aircraft carriers.
General Rungsi: That can be stationed in the vicinity of Yemen? Or are they just enough to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait?
General Rungsi: In the past wars, in the new round of clashes, Iran used 5 types of missiles and 1 type of drone. And it's a single type of drone, the Shahed. But they used 5 types of missiles, but they were short-range, not exceeding 1000 kilometers. The speed is about Mach 5. For example, the Fateh-110. And today, Iran has changed its tactics. That is, before Iran fires missiles at US military strongholds, Iran will launch low-speed drones in hundreds, thousands, to enter the radar of the US forces. And when they appear as a large mass on the US radar, Iran will fire missiles at the targets. What Iran means is that it's a diversion, to make US radar focus on the drones. This is what Iran has been using in the second round. That is, they release hundreds of drones flying in groups to be on the US radar. And when they cause disruption to a certain extent, they fire missiles, and they all hit their targets. Recently, Iran's missiles, and the US will have to find a solution. It's called a tactic that is constantly evolving, isn't it? Warfare is constantly developing, both tactically and technically.
Mr. Patchara: We haven't even included the top-tier missiles that we haven't seen much of lately, like the Khurramshahr, the Sejjil. Now they are using things like the Fateh-110, which are short-range missiles. They can destroy them because the countries in the Gulf and Iran are not far apart, are they? They are within range.
General Rungsi: Yes, yes.
Mr. Patchara: The battle between Saudi Arabia and Yemen or the Houthis, it's hard to imagine how it will end, or how it will end. General Rungsi, do you have a scenario for how it will end? Here in the Red Sea, in the Bab al-Mandab Strait?
General Rungsi: Today, the condition between Iran and the United States is that if Iran is attacked, Iran will retaliate in the same way that the United States does. Today, the United States itself already has a plan to destroy power plants and underground depots. America is confident that it has information that it knows where Iran's underground weapons depots are. Iran is currently attacking three countries heavily: Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain. Why? Because Kuwait is a major logistics hub and a US radar center. Bahrain is the location of the Fifth Fleet's headquarters. As for Jordan, the United States has moved most of its forces to Jordan, thinking it is far from Iran, with Iraq in between. Therefore, Iran is heavily attacking Jordan in the last 2-3 days because it wants to destroy all weapons, whether they are aircraft, drones, or missiles. And I see it this way: if Iran can destroy a lot of US forces in Jordan, the next position or target will be Israel.
Mr. Patchara: Ah, I was just about to ask.
General Rungsi: Because Jordan and Israel are adjacent.
Mr. Patchara: Yes, yes. I was just about to ask if they cross the border, they can shoot at Israel from Jordan. Iran has shot before. And now, there are new model aircraft and refueling aircraft that have arrived. There are reports that they are parked in Israel. So, will Iran dare to shoot? Will Iran dare to shoot at Israel?
General Rungsi: I think Iran wants to deal with US weapons in Jordan first. Because today, Israel is also depleted. Because Israel has been fighting for a long time, right? When the US weapons in Jordan are finished, I think Israel will be Iran's next target. But let's look back at this: the war in the Middle East, this second outbreak, I see that the point that will change in this war is the Houthi closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait. If it's locked down, I can tell you that the war will expand, and the world's disaster will begin immediately. Currently, they are still using the term "blockade of the Red Sea." But when the Bab al-Mandab Strait is closed, it's over. And I also see it this way: after closing the Bab al-Mandab Strait, I believe they will attack the Suez Canal to prevent any passage.
Mr. Patchara: Not to go to Europe at all.
General Rungsi: Yes. Because don't forget, the countries north of the Bab al-Mandab Strait can pass through the Suez Canal. But destroying both ships passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait and ships passing through the Suez Canal, oh, I think it's a big problem. Don't think it's impossible. Because when events are tense like this, to win or lose, anything can happen. What people think they dare not do, they will do.
Mr. Patchara: That would draw in the Europeans as well, because Europe would be in even more serious trouble.
General Rungsi: Correct. If it's closed, the war will expand. The reason is that Europe will have to come down and open the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Because actually, Trump invited them to help blockade the Gulf of Oman, and they didn't come because they weren't involved. But if the Bab al-Mandab Strait is closed, NATO will definitely be involved. Because the shortest route from Europe to Asia is through the Suez Canal, into the Red Sea, through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, out to the Gulf of Aden, into the Indian Ocean. So, we have to keep watching from now on. As I said.
Mr. Patchara: Yes.
General Rungsi: Whether the war will proceed or there will be another round of negotiations.
Mr. Patchara: Ah.
General Rungsi: We have to keep watching from now on. But it will definitely have an impact on everyone in the world. Just the fact that as soon as the Houthis announce the closure of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the disaster will begin immediately. And if NATO comes down to send troops to help the United States, oh, I believe China and Russia will not allow the Houthis and Iran to be ganged up on.
Mr. Patchara: The disaster has already begun. It started yesterday when Saudi ships had to turn back in the Red Sea and could not go to the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Two ships had to turn back. And most recently last night, a few hours ago, they were fired upon. Two Saudi ships were fired upon. Therefore, they cannot go down. Oil cannot go down to Asia, cannot go down to ASEAN. This is an immediate problem for anyone using Saudi oil. But it is the supply that will come out, the overall supply. Now, it's immediately lacking. ASEAN will cry out. ASEAN will cry out. It's an immediate problem, General Rungsi.
General Rungsi: That's why I said, if the Bab al-Mandab Strait is closed like Hormuz, it will be the point where the war escalates. The war will expand and become immediately severe. Because this is a major artery that no one can afford to lose.
Mr. Patchara: Yes.
General Rungsi: And if that happens, it will be the fate of humanity. Mr. Patchara.
Mr. Patchara: And we will bear the full brunt.
General Rungsi: Because we will bear it.
Mr. Patchara: Asia, ASEAN.
General Rungsi: Correct. Because we receive oil from the Middle East. And today, I am confident that the international oil reserves of all countries are depleted. Because during the time when they said Hormuz was open, it was open and closed, right? And it didn't really pass through.
Mr. Patchara: Hmm, hmm. Does this make America smile secretly, thinking that it's good that Asia is suffering, China is suffering, ASEAN is suffering? They will be pressured to find allies more easily, and so on?
General Rungsi: No, I see it this way. I see it as a severe conflict, and they will not be able to talk. From now on, if they continue to use this kind of proxy war, eventually, it will lead to a decisive battle. Mr. Patchara. This time, the major powers and their allies will clash in the Indian Ocean. And as I said, if America expands its front to the Strait of Malacca, it will enter the South China Sea. Because of this Indo-Pacific strategy that America has prepared, and I believe that in the end, they will have to implement the plan. Because as I said today, it is a struggle for who will be the sole superpower in the world. Mr. Patchara.
Mr. Patchara: Yes.
General Rungsi: It's purely about interests. And when people kill each other, it's mostly about interests.
Mr. Patchara: Yes. If so, then let's get to the important question, which is, regarding what we just discussed, is there a chance that America will draw China into it? If asked, is the United States ready now to draw China into it, or are they waiting for the right time to draw them in, or are they ready now to draw China into it?
General Rungsi: When war breaks out, conflict, Mr. Patchara, most of it arises from unpreparedness. Suppose you both have full pockets. Do you think you will fight? Let's take yourself, Mr. Patchara. If you are well-fed, living well, have 100 million in savings, a house, everything, and someone bumps into you or steps on your foot, you might say, "Never mind, it's okay, it's not a problem," because you are fully prepared. Why would you look for trouble? But when people are blinded, they might even go up and ask, "Why are you looking at me?" Seriously? And is America in that situation today? Is America still as rich and prosperous as before? No, it has mounting debt, 40 trillion dollars. Its manufacturing sector is gone. Its military strength is not so superior to China, Russia, and Iran compared to the Cold War. This is why they say they are ready. Most of the time, people who have problems are the ones who fight. Mr. Patchara.
Mr. Patchara: Hmm.
General Rungsi: People with no future are usually the ones who cause trouble. People with a future, who would bother? I just ask. Right?
Mr. Patchara: Oh, if General Rungsi's answer is like this, then I can see that what the US Department of Defense hinted at 2-3 days ago, saying that China and Russia have supported Iran in the war, is starting to indicate that there are reasons to draw China into it.
General Rungsi: Yes.
Mr. Patchara: And China must know this well, right? China must know this well, right? China doesn't want to fight. China doesn't want to fight.
General Rungsi: But ultimately, China has said that if they are invaded, they will fight back. Right? Because today, China is prosperous. Its economy is good. Everything is going well. It doesn't want to fight. Right? But the ones who want to fight are usually the ones with problems.
General Rungsi: China is also training hard now. Recently, China has been conducting long-range drills, practicing long-range missile launches in the South China Sea. They have also invited many countries, including Cambodia, the Thai Prime Minister, and others, to China. This is also part of China's preparation, according to experts.
General Rungsi: No, they want to find allies. As I said, on the route from the Strait of Malacca to the South China Sea. If China loses any country to the United States, it means China gains an enemy. If the United States loses a satellite country, if a country loses an ally to China, it means the United States gains an enemy. Because when there is a global war like this, there must be bases. Countries that will serve as logistics bases, troop resting bases, weapon repair bases, bases that must be armed to attack the other side, airfields, missiles, drones. They must be prepared. Because this kind of giant-vs-giant war, I believe it will take at least 3 years to know the outcome. And it will be like what we see, fighting and stopping, fighting and stopping, fighting and negotiating, fighting and negotiating. But this time, as I said, whoever's economy collapses first loses. This time, it will be decided by economic warfare. Mr. Patchara. But it will use armed warfare to determine the direction of economic warfare.