Transcription
Okay, the month of October, also commonly called October because it's supposed to be the most beneficial month for the crypto market, turned out to be a good old flop. We're starting to get used to it in this very, very difficult market. In recent years, that's a fact. Now, the question is, concretely, with these average-to-below-average Octobers we've had, where do we look and what's happening for the coming months?
In this video, I'm going to give you my vision for the coming weeks, for the month of November, for the month of December, and for the end of this crypto cycle. And I do mean the end, I'll explain why. And I'll also explain my theory which complements my theory on liquidity, on why I think this cycle could concretely last longer than previous ones with mainly macro arguments. We're going to try to dissect this crypto market without bullshit, without bullish bias. The idea isn't to sell opium but to provide concrete information on how I see things unfolding for this market.
I see many people talking about the 4-year cycle, that it's over, that it's finished, etc. The famous 4-year cycle which states that the crypto market, for over 15 years now, is a cycle linked to the halving. We take the halving, generally, we wait 18 months, so a year and a half, and we have the market top. Except that what needs to be understood is that the crypto market is not in a remote corner of finance, obeying only its own rules, namely halving equals rise, regardless of what's happening in the world. This 4-year cycle is dictated by the halving, yes, but it's especially dictated by another element: liquidity. The 4-year cycle is a liquidity cycle, nothing more.
Liquidity is cyclical, it lasts about 65 months, and the closer we get to the end of this liquidity cycle, the more it flows into risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins. So the 4-year cycle depends on liquidity. And what does liquidity depend on? Well, it depends on a lot of things. It depends on central banks, injections, QT, treasuries, reserves, a lot of things. But it depends on one particular element, especially since 2020: debt.
If we take the United States, they earn about 4800 billion in federal revenue annually against 6400 billion in expenses. So the deficit in 2024 was 1800 billion. That's a very expensive annual subscription. It costs even more than if you want all the sports channels at once. And that's saying something, and in my little calculation, I think we can add the interest on the debt, which is 1100 billion per year to pay. So the United States needs to find about 3000 billion per year, and we've seen here that it's going to get worse and worse, we can't go back. Except that, well, this money has to be found. How is this money found? How is the hole filled? Well, the hole is filled by issuing debt securities that investors buy. Except that these securities have maturities. A 4-year bond issued in 2020 matures in 2024. So the treasury must either repay it, which is absolutely impossible, or refinance it. This is called rolling over. We roll over the debt, we replace the old debt with new debt. And so all of this creates debt cycles. And until 2020, the cycles were quite stable. There was an average maturity of about 4 years. So every 4 years, we have peaks of debt to refinance. What does this align with? It aligns with our old crypto market. So, cryptos are not in a corner. The crypto market depends on liquidity, and liquidity, especially since 2020, depends on debt.
Except that in 2020-2021, the treasury completely changed its strategy, and it's important to understand what happened. What did they do? Well, they reduced the issuance of short-term treasury bills to increase the issuance of long-term bonds. We see it here. Look, the blue chart is decreasing while the red chart, long-term bonds, is increasing more. Why did they do that? They did it to lock in rates for longer and to reduce dependence on short-term refinancing. And so they issued more long-term debt, 10-year, 20-year, 30-year. And the consequence of this is that the average maturity has lengthened. We are no longer at an average maturity of about 4 years. We are at a maturity of between 5 and 5.5 years, approximately 5.4 years. And so, naturally, this changes the liquidity cycle because the debt cycle now lasts about 5 to 5.5 years, and so the liquidity cycle will follow, and therefore the crypto cycle will also follow. And that's why I think the crypto cycle is longer than other cycles because the debt cycle has changed compared to what was issued in 2020-2021.
So, we come to my thesis. I think the year 2026 will mark a peak in global liquidity thanks to four factors: economic growth that is considered stable. It's a bit chaotic, but we are not in a period of recession or crash. Accommodative monetary policies. We've had a lot of rate cuts in many central banks in 2025, and the effects of the liquidity that will be created will ripple and slide into 2026. We have a huge refinancing wall in Q4 2025 and in 2026, over 36% of the debt matures and will need to be rolled over. This is beneficial for the injection of new liquidity. And the United States is only increasing its debt ceiling. So I think we will have a peak in global liquidity in 2026.
Okay. Now, there's a small subtlety that is quite important. The important subtlety is that liquidity peaks always occur after Bitcoin peaks. Look, in white, we have the global liquidity chart, and here we have the Bitcoin chart. If we look at the Bitcoin peak in 2021, it was November 15, 2021. The liquidity peak occurred around March 2022. So there was a 3-month lag between the Bitcoin peak and the liquidity peak. In 2018, exactly the same thing, the Bitcoin peak was in December 2017, and the liquidity peak here was in March 2018. So there was again 3 months.
So, you have to be very careful about one thing: don't wait for a liquidity peak to say, "Okay, we've had the liquidity peak, we're waiting for it to flow into Bitcoin, so we have the Bitcoin ATH." Liquidity always peaks after Bitcoin. So you have to be careful with that, but it still fits my thesis that liquidity will peak in 2026, I think around mid-2026. It's very complicated to know, but knowing that Bitcoin generally peaks 3 months before the liquidity peak, we've seen it, it advances my thesis and my hypothesis that the crypto market is far from having shown everything, that we haven't had an ATH in September or August 2025, and that we still have very good things to achieve.
That's why I think that in the coming months, it's hard to say, in the next 6-8 months, we will have a Bitcoin ATH, we will have altcoins that will perform, much more than what we've seen so far. Not all altcoins, mind you, but I think we haven't seen anything yet from this last phase of the crypto market because we are entering the last liquidity phase, but the last liquidity phase is lasting longer this year than during other cycles because of this famous debt issue. That's why I think all this. I insist that this is my theory, okay? And I don't have 70 years of market experience. I'm just wearing a hat making videos on the internet, but I'm presenting it to you with the arguments I have, and then you can use it to create your own tests if you wish. But it's my vision, I think the crypto market will go even higher, even if it's not at all the trend to say that right now.
This type of liquidity tracking analysis, debt thesis, etc., is what you can find a lot on cryptorocher, an enormous amount of it on cryptorocher. Cryptorecher is the largest French investment group that we manage with Paul Cryptooration, and I really do in-depth tracking, in addition to altcoin and narrative tracking, on liquidity and my theses every week. Honestly, go take a look, we give trading ideas, we do altcoin tracking analyses, etc. And in addition to that, if you are subscribed to Cryptocher, you automatically have access to Blo Unity, which is like the most complete data platform on which we work with a lot of macro, micro, on-chain data, etc. And as soon as you are on cryptorecher, you have access to that. So it gives the most complete overview of the market possible in addition to the cryptorecher subscription. So it's quite, quite cool. I'm very, very proud of this platform.
So concretely, where are we now? A data point to consider that is quite interesting is the comparison between Bitcoin and gold. In blue, you have the Bitcoin Gold chart. So if the chart goes up, Bitcoin outperforms gold. If the chart goes down, gold outperforms. In orange, you have Bitcoin, and in green, you have gold. We see it here, gold made a breakthrough from hell starting in August with all the uncertainties around tariffs, etc., and outperformed Bitcoin. But there's still something quite interesting, and that is that on the Bitcoin Gold chart, we've had a -20%, and historically, when we have -20% on this chart, Bitcoin is always at very interesting levels compared to gold. We see it here, we are starting to reverse the trend a bit with gold correcting and Bitcoin rising again because we have an influx of liquidity, because there is also geopolitical appeasement with Trump's tariffs, etc. We'll talk about it, and I think we've potentially marked a local bottom on the Bitcoin Gold chart around this time in mid-October 2025. This would make sense with what we've seen with liquidations, and it would also make sense with the liquidity downturn that we risk having in the coming months, coming weeks.
A quick point on the US central bank's action, which will lower its rates tomorrow, October 29th, it's almost certain, and this confirms the pivot and the desire for monetary easing. In reality, it's not necessarily the fact that we have a rate cut that will have an impact, we know that. It's more the discourse that the Fed will have. We know very well that the speeches are extremely analyzed for what the Fed says. And I think that for now, the Fed has been very cautious, even if they were cutting rates, they announced that they were extremely cautious, etc. I think they will have to start being a bit more hawkish in the coming meetings, that is to say, become a bit more flexible with more easing in their monetary policy. I think it's becoming mandatory. We see it here with the Fed's balance sheet. QT is slowly approaching its end but hasn't been announced yet. On October 14th, Jerome Powell had said that the Fed was ready to stop QT due to tensions in interbank liquidity. Major banks are announcing that the end of QT is imminent too, perhaps to put pressure. But for now, Powell hasn't announced anything yet, and meetings on this subject are taking place today, October 28th, and tomorrow, October 29th. So we will know, but it's extremely, extremely important.
Why? Because, look, there's something interesting. If we look at the Fed's balance sheet, on October 1st, it was 6.55, and now it's risen to 6.596. In reality, the balance sheet is increasing, and in reality, it's not at all QE or a purchase by the Fed. It's just due to a drying up of liquidity. Banks are starting to be really in trouble, and so they have borrowed short-term urgently via the Fed's repo facilities, which has the consequence of increasing its balance sheet. But it's not at all a positive sign, and it's especially a sign that the Fed will really have to start to act and adopt another policy because, in fact, they just don't have a choice, otherwise it will create too many tensions on the interbank market. So this is also positive for our liquidity cycles.
A quick point also on ETFs to finish. Bitwise launched its Solana ETF on the New York Stock Exchange today, the B SOL. We will also be able to generate income on staked Solanas. So we finally have the adoption of the first Solana ETF. I think after this, we will have a domino effect, and all ETFs are likely to be accepted. In reality, I don't think it will have an immediate impact on Solana in the sense that ETF announcements are not really watched anymore. We've had a few, and they haven't had much impact. However, in terms of inflows, in terms of incoming funds and buying pressure, it's certain that if it has the same success as the Bitcoin ETF or the Ether ETF, it will have an impact on the price of SOL and create buying pressure on the token. So honestly, only positive news on this front.
The crypto market has never been so bullish in fundamental terms. We are tokenizing gold, we are tokenizing treasury bills. Stocks are on-chain, stablecoin market cap is ATH after ATH. And even if we talk about Bitcoin, there are companies fighting to have it all over the world. Even BlackRock's HBIT ETF is far ahead of other ETFs and is now the 7th largest ETF in the world. Honestly, I stand by it. I know it's not at all the trend because we had a really bad October, and emotions are naturally tough, and even for altcoins, it's very hard. I am bullish on the crypto market and I sincerely believe that the coming weeks, the coming months will bring us good things. Will it happen instantly? No. Will it happen for all altcoins? No, I don't think so. But from what I see and from my analyses, it will have a positive impact.
One last thing before finishing: beware of the noise around tariffs. We're back into this charade. The United States, China, announce tariffs, and then they negotiate. In reality, if I can give you one piece of advice, don't fall for it, don't fall for these tariff announcements that are just there to create content, to scare everyone. A little tip I recommend to people who aren't necessarily in crypto but want to stay informed: every week, pick two important news items, and that's it. Two news items per week, and you don't need to spend your time on Twitter or social media trying to understand what's happening. That's more than enough to get an overview of the market and it also protects our mental health because we really need it in this market, especially at times like these when we'll need to make good decisions in the weeks, or even months, to come. Thank you very much. If you haven't already, don't forget to subscribe, it's very, very important to support the channel. We're almost at 100,000 subscribers, so it would be very, very cool to reach them. This was IL. Take care of yourselves. Bye, folks.