Transcription
China recently released its 2025 population data. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total population is expected to drop to around 1.405 billion, a decrease of 3.39 million from the previous year. This marks the fourth consecutive year of negative growth. Out of the 27 provinces with available data, 20 saw a population decline, while only seven experienced growth.
This data has sparked heated discussions online. In Harbin, with a population of 10 million, there's no one on the streets. No one in office buildings. No one in restaurants. Where did all the people go? I remember back when we had 1.3 billion people. The streets were full. The train stations were crowded with people carrying big bags. But now with 1.4 billion, it feels like there's no one. The only place that's crowded now is the hospital. There are huge lines there. Does anyone know where all the people in Harbin have gone?
Official data shows that Harbin, a northern city, has a population of around 10 million. But in reality, it's hard to feel that kind of population density in everyday life. The streets are quiet, office buildings are vacant, and restaurants have very few customers. The doubts about the population data quickly grew, with many online users expressing clear distrust, even outright rejecting the official numbers. They say most of them are gone and there aren't many births anymore. One user commented, "The world has already acknowledged that China's population is around 800 million. There's hardly anyone left." Another user said, "After the three vaccine shots, there aren't many people anywhere."
This feeling isn't just limited to Harbin. A similar discussion and confusion have emerged in another northeastern city. A user from Fuen Yaoing also expressed almost identical concerns on social media.
"There is a strange phenomenon happening in Fushun lately. I specifically searched it up and Fushun's resident population is 1.71 million. Are these 7.71 million people not eating anymore? I was chatting with a colleague this afternoon. One was making videos for restaurants. Their coupons aren't selling. The live streams aren't being watched and no one is eating at the restaurants. I figured maybe people are being more frugal now, buying groceries and cooking at home. Then I talked to the aunt who sells vegetables at the market and she said no one is buying their produce. It's not selling. Some might say they're ordering takeout, but when I got on the elevator, I saw the delivery guys and they all look pretty down. I talked to them and they said there are no orders now. No orders at all. It's way less than before. I saw someone online guessing that people have all gone back to their hometowns, to their counties. I'm from a county, too, buddy, and no one's coming back. On the streets, it's just old people and children. Let me tell you, when I go down in the elevator in the morning, if I happen to see someone around my age, my whole day feels so much better. But there's no one. On the streets, it's either people with canes or pushing carts."
Data shows that among the 20 provinces with negative population growth, Hunan has lost 470,000 people. Satran has lost 460,000. Ani has lost 410,000 and Shandong has lost 372,000. In the northeast, Halong Jang has lost 280,000 people and the Ning has lost 240,000. Other central and western provinces like Hube, Guangshi, Jangi, and Gansu have also recorded net decreases in the tens of thousands.
In contrast to the continuous population decline in most provinces, there are a few regions that are still seeing growth. However, the structure of this growth has sparked new discussions. According to the data, Guangong saw an increase of 790,000 people, the highest in the country. Jang added 310,000, and Shing Jang, Hynan, Shanghai, Tibet, and Ning Sha also experienced slight growth. However, a deeper look at the data reveals that this growth isn't entirely due to natural population increase, but is largely driven by population influx. For example, in Guangdong, out of the 790,000 new people, only about 290,000 came from natural growth, while about 500,000 came from net migration from other provinces. In other words, this growth is more like a siphon effect where population growth is maintained by attracting people from other regions. Shanghai's situation is similar. Its natural growth is negative with 107,000 births and 164,000 deaths. But due to a net influx of 108,500 people, it achieved a positive growth of 51,500. This means that without migration, even these so-called growing regions would still face the trend of population decline.
More and more ordinary people from first-tier cities are starting to verify this data through their own daily experiences. A nizen who has lived in Beijing for a long time shared his observations.
"Today, I want to talk about something interesting. I've noticed that the population in Beijing has really dropped. How did I notice? Well, a couple of days ago at 8:30 in the morning, I went to take the subway and found there was actually a seat. I've been coming to Beijing for almost 20 years, and this has never happened before. In the past, whether it was 8:30 or 9, if you went to take the subway, it was always packed with people elbowing each other. So much so that you didn't even need to hold on to anything because the people around you would keep you steady. Now there is actually a seat. Then a couple of days ago on Monday, I drove to work and found there was a parking spot in the underground garage under my office. In the past, it would take me over an hour to get to work, and I'd still spend half an hour looking for a spot. Now, there are empty spots. So, I got curious and looked up the data. And it turns out that in 2025, Beijing's resident population is about 22 million. According to the 14th 5-year plan, Beijing's population is supposed to be kept below 23 million. And it looks like we've already exceeded that target. Plus, according to some rumors, about 400,000 to 500,000 people didn't return to Beijing after the new year."
A nizen from Shanghai shared a similar feeling, saying it feels like there are fewer people in Shanghai too. Some people in the comments believe that after the pandemic, many people's health has deteriorated. From Harabian and Fushin to Beijing and Shanghai, more and more individuals from different cities and regions are feeling the same way that people are disappearing. This change is even spreading to the busiest transportation hubs. A netizen shared their personal experience at Tangian airport.
"Let me tell you about something a bit crazy. A few days ago, I flew out of Tangin. When I got to the airport to check in, there were only three people in line in front of me. Then when I went through security, usually there's that long snake-like queue, right? But there were only two people in front of me. It wasn't a particularly early or late flight either. I was thinking, what happened? Is there really fewer people or is the economy just in this bad of a shape? Then when I went to the waiting area, I checked the display at the gate. It was around 12:00 p.m. when I sat down, and my flight was at 2 p.m. I suddenly realized the display only showed two flights. Mine at 2:00 p.m. and another at 7:00 p.m. That shows that the gate utilization is so low. It's only used a few times a day. It's clear that Tanjin's flights have visibly decreased. I just saw a post by another blogger who said the same thing about Beijing. People are visibly fewer. He took his mom to Tanong Yan to take the subway and it used to be packed with people with long queues, but this time there was no line at all. I'm wondering what's going on with Beijing and Tenjin."
In the comments, many nizens responded, saying, "The old are dead, the young aren't being born, and the younger ones are being taken for parts. It's no surprise." "The three vaccines, plus the organ harvesting means fewer people. People have been eaten or sold by others. China doesn't have 1.4 billion people anymore. It's decreasing at a visible rate. Now, it's less than 1 billion. By next year, there will only be 800 million. People have been eaten by demons."
What's even more notable is that this sense of emptiness isn't just in the north or first-tier cities. It's also happening in the southwest. In Chongqing, once bustling commercial areas are now showing noticeable changes. A netisonen filmed the situation at Shaing Ba, Three Gorgeous Plaza, where many shops are closed, storefronts are vacant, and the whole pedestrian street seems unusually quiet.
"In Chongqing's shopping bop district, Three Gorgeous Plaza is also eerily quiet. This used to be the Three Gorgeous Plaza pedestrian street, but now looks like this. This shop is closed. This one is closed, too. And this one is also shut down. Even this one has closed. And over here, all the doors are locked. Is it because the environment is really bad this year? Or has consumer spending dropped? It's only March, just after the new year, and I didn't expect it to become like this. This is the Three Gorgeous Plaza pedestrian street, and it feels like it will never go back to how it was before. Everything around here is cold and quiet, and I wonder how many people still remember this place. Shopping bars Wang Fuing has been closed for so long and it still looks like this. The McDonald's here is also closed and the Happy D Noble Dental, it's closed, too. And now the door is tightly locked with thick dust inside. It looks like it's been empty for a long time. I don't know what happened. Even Shopping B's Edwards is closed. How many people still remember this place? Now, the entrance is a parking lot."
In the comments, someone pointed out, "Salaries have remained the same for 10 years, but prices are skyrocketing." Many people don't understand why. Let me put it this way. 10 years ago, my salary was 3,000, and now it's still 3,000. 10 years ago, hot pot cost about 50 per person, but now it's over 100. When income stagnates or even declines in real purchasing power, combined with rising living costs, shrinking consumption seems like an inevitable outcome. Ordinary people are facing not just less money, but it even seems like people themselves are becoming fewer. Where do the people go?
Some analyses suggest that the huge gap between official data and reality is a reflection of the long-term systematic population data manipulation by the Communist Party. The CCP's population statistics system has been deeply influenced by political interference and pressure for achievements. Since the family planning era, the distortion has become a long-standing issue. Historically, when the Communist Party implemented the one-child policy, local officials often hid, underreported, or falsely reported birth numbers to meet the control targets set by the higher-ups. Many children born outside the policy remained outside the household registration system. At the same time, some areas inflated the population data to exaggerate the population dividend and make their political achievements look more impressive. They did so by reregistering or artificially increasing the base numbers. The tradition of falsification continued in subsequent population censuses. The data from the seventh national census was widely questioned for overestimating key indicators like birth and death rates, which differed significantly from independent estimates. The Chinese Communist Party's abrupt shift from family planning to population boosting further exposed its arbitrary data manipulation. When achievements needed to be shown, the numbers were inflated. When the crisis became too obvious, negative growth was reluctantly admitted.
In recent years, doubts about data manipulation have intensified. Some analyses suggest that the official figure of 1.4 billion people may be severely exaggerated, and the actual population might only be around 700 to 800 million or even lower. Russian media once inferred from indirect indicators like food production and trade data that China's real population did not exceed 800 million. Some whistleblowers and independent scholars have pointed out that household registration duplications, underreporting of rural populations, and the concealment of death data during the pandemic have further inflated the numbers. The root of the CCP's population data falsification lies in the nature of its authoritarian system. Local officials, driven by political performance evaluations, beautify data to avoid penalties, while higher authorities turn a blind eye or even encourage this. During the family planning era, extreme measures like forced abortions and fines severely distorted the population structure. After the pandemic, death data was underreported and the effects of infections were downplayed, further obscuring the true death toll. Data can be falsified and deceived for a while, but it can't keep deceiving forever.
Changes in the population structure are gradually becoming evident in daily life. A netison noticed that kindergartens had closed down and now primary schools are closing as well. No one could have imagined that the era of population decline would bring such a rapid change, especially with the decrease in children of school age. A sweeping transformation in education has already begun. It started with kindergartens closing and now the fire has spread to primary schools. In some country counties in Sansi, parents went to pick up their children's registration cards only to find the campus empty. No one notified them, no warnings. This is not an isolated case. Last year, over 5,000 primary schools nationwide stopped enrolling students. An average of 15 schools a day, whether in urban or rural areas, public or private, all were shrinking. After kindergartens, primary schools closed, and next it will be junior and senior high schools and even universities. In the comments, some netizens expressed, "For most people, studying is meaningless now and Harbin has closed seven or eight primary schools from last year to this year."
The first field where population decline had a direct impact is in the education system. According to data from the Ministry of Education, the number of kindergartens has significantly decreased in recent years. In 2024, the number of kindergartens across the country dropped from 274,400 to 253,300, with over 20,000 closing in just one year. That means dozens of closures a day. The number of children enrolled has also drastically decreased. Experts predict that this trend is spreading to primary schools, with thousands of ordinary primary schools having already closed by 2024. Junior and senior high schools and even higher education could face a student shortage in the future.
At the same time, the job market is also under significant pressure. While the decrease in kindergartens and primary schools can be explained as a direct result of declining birth rates, the emerging issues now point even more directly to another core issue of social operation: employment. A 35-year-old woman with a master's degree shared her job search experience.
"I'm 35 and have a master's degree and I realize I may never find a job again. When I look around the job market, all I see are people looking for work. And there are only a few companies hiring. Most jobs won't hire women over 30. And jobs that don't have an age limit often require specific skills like forklift operators or air conditioner and washing machine repair jobs. I saw a company hiring for an internal position that paid 3,000 a month with weekends off and insurance. I was really excited, but when I spoke to HR about the position, they said I also needed to be able to drive and have my own car. I'd have to drive over 30 km every day to deliver company materials, meaning I'd have to pay over 1,000 yen in fuel costs on top of my 3,000 salary. I just want to find an office job, even if it's only 3,000 grand a month with weekends off and insurance. But I can't find even that. It's so hard. Really, so hard. The job market is impossible to navigate now. So, if you have a job with weekends off, a regular salary, and insurance, you should really cherish it. Don't just quit. The job market has become so distorted."
In the comments, one bluntly said, "What's happening to this country?" Another shared that their company received over 900 résumés in two days for a 4,500 reception job, including many people with bachelor's degrees.
"How severe is the employment situation this year? Recently, our company was hiring for a front desk position with a salary of 4,500 yen a month. In just two days, HR received over 900 résumés, many of which were from people with bachelor's degrees. For just one front desk position. In only two days, over 900 people applied. So, if you still have a job and your company is still paying salaries, please really cherish the job you have now."
In the comments, nizens from different regions gave more direct feedback. "4500, that's high. In Shien, you can't even get 3,000 after probation. Business is sluggish now. It's good enough that they can still pay the base salary. We've closed one of our three Fors stores in town."
The empty streets is not just a matter of population numbers. It's also the result of shrinking economic vitality, social mobility, and development expectations. When education no longer guarantees a way out, when employment no longer offers stability, and when consumption can't support growth, these basic elements that once sustained a society's operation are all weakening at once. The most direct feeling for ordinary people is often summed up in one simple statement: there are fewer and fewer people and fewer and fewer opportunities. At the same time, more and more young people are choosing to delay marriage or even not have children. These factors combined are further accelerating the trend in population shrinkage. In this social context, some people's questions are becoming more direct: What's happening to this country?