Transcription
In the coming period, will it be the dollar strengthened by global uncertainties or the desired weak dollar? >> If you are in debt, you devalue the money you owe to lighten your debt burden. The American dollar will continue to weaken. >> What kind of path do American stock markets present to investors in 2026? >> It will be a year where not every stock, but the right stock, will rise significantly. >> Uh-huh. Let's get to the periodic table. We buy whatever we find. Telecommunication companies, aviation sector >> uh, these have now become necessities, and food companies. >> Now I'll add one more to them. >> Although we are not talking about a very large scale, how should our viewer choose there? >> They ask me a lot these days. Has the MTA supercycle started, will it continue? And I say this. >> If we made a portfolio only from MTAs, what percentage would we allocate? If I make an investment, I definitely expect to get a return in June and afterwards. I invest according to that, according to that maturity. >> What would be a single piece of advice for a young friend? Forvest. [music] >> Hello everyone. Welcome to the For Invest Investment Tips program. I am Harika Ertunç, and today we have managed to catch an empty slot in the agenda of a guest who is in high demand from you. We immediately invited him. Macro strategist at GeoEconomics Consultancy, Berk Dinçtürk, is with us. Welcome, Berk. Hello. >> Glad to be here. Hello. >> Now, if I had said earlier that our guest who says "buy whatever you find on the periodic table" is Berk Dinçtürk, you would all probably have guessed it. >> It's parallel to what he said. Such an MTA supercycle has started, and the developments feeding it have come one after another, so we have many topics to discuss on the program. As you know, we started the year with developments that broke all our memorizations in a political context, pushing the limits of our minds. What am I talking about? I'm talking about the official detention of Venezuelan leader Maduro by Trump. In our line of work, we will discuss and evaluate its financial market effects. Things have heated up considerably on the global front. Our eyes have turned to the Fed. The unpredictability of the Fed's moves has increased somewhat. In fact, we will meet the data set in these last few days. We are waiting for this. Along with this, will gold carry its 2025 performance into 2026? While we were wondering, some statements supporting this came one after another from major banks. But will it really be like that? We will talk about these with Berk. And let's turn to the domestic front as well. Borsa Istanbul was very constrained domestically. We had been following this for a long time, but it started the new year with new highs. We wish it to be a year where investors can compensate for their losses, and I return to my guest from here. I wish you a Happy New Year again. May it be a year of great profit. May our viewers who are watching us have abundant profits. We host esteemed guests like you to increase their profits as much as we can. Let me start with the global. Let's say Maduro first. Initially, everyone said that Trump's appetite for oil is behind this, etc. But there was no need to read between the lines. Trump himself came out and said it openly. >> He said, "I will take it, I will do it, I am the king here now, the oil is mine." What is your interpretation? Let's hear it from your perspective too. >> Now, yes, America has succeeded in overthrowing Maduro, whom it has besieged from within and outside for a long time, and has taken control of the government. The reason cited is that Venezuela is one of the countries with the world's richest oil reserves. It has approximately 300 billion barrels of oil reserves. The current price of those reserves is an average of 17 trillion dollars. >> Uh-huh. >> But this is the visible part of the iceberg. The real story lies in the unseen part of the iceberg. After overthrowing Maduro, the Trump administration immediately made a statement: "We also need Greenland." >> Yes. >> Now, what is the common feature of Venezuela and Greenland? They are countries with the world's richest energy commodities and rare earth elements. That is, they are quite rich in germanium, gallium, indium, thorium, nickel, copper, etc. These are rare earth elements and commodities vital for new technology. >> And there is also energy. The competition in the world right now is actually over commodities and rare earth elements. Whoever has the weapon sets the rules. Now, when we look at this, America is carrying out an industrial revolution, and as it is about to break new ground in artificial intelligence, it is doing this: It aims to control all the commodities and energy sources it needs. >> And it has turned its attention from the Eastern Hemisphere to the Western Hemisphere. That is, it is returning to the Monroe Doctrine. I call this Monroe 2.0. >> They also call it Donro. You know, "Don" is used in English as a term for a mafia boss, and Donald Trump likes being called "Donro" very much. >> Trump is a populist president. >> His rhetoric is very strong in appealing to the low-income segment of America. Uh-huh. >> But when we look at it, even if Trump leaves office today and someone else comes in, America's policy will not change. It will control all commodities and energy sources while carrying out its industrial revolution. It will return to the Monroe Doctrine, and the Caribbean has now become America's red line again. You can ask me about the next target here. >> Yes. >> I predict that the next target will be Cuba. >> H >> Because what Western-backed Ukraine means for the Russians >> Uh-huh. >> >> Russian and Chinese-backed Cuba poses the same threat to America. >> Uh-huh. It's like their backyard, actually. >> Bravo. Of course, America also wants to control maritime trade and sea lanes. >> Uh-huh. >> >> Because they know very well that whoever controls the seas controls world trade, and whoever controls world trade controls the world. >> Well, in the coming days, for example, there's also the point of contention over Taiwan, right? I'm also curious about this. If China attacks Taiwan and the United States remains surprisingly silent, what can we understand from the general picture? >> You asked a perfect question. Now I will connect this. We said it wants to control maritime trade. You know that America will take South Korea and Japan with it. Because they actually have very strong naval power. Everyone says, "China is building a lot of ships, but China doesn't have admirals with combat experience to sail that navy." >> Uh-huh. Right now, there is actually a table set up in the world. At one end of this table sits America, at another Russia, and at the other China. Now, America has taken Venezuela and Greenland. Russia will take Ukraine. >> They will leave Taiwan to China. >> >> That is, if you are not at the table in the geopolitical arena, you are on the menu. >> We will see and follow the effects of all these developments on many financial instruments. When we look at the oil side, you just said, "There is a small production, resource, reserve, but the production is very small." Therefore, we haven't seen much impact on the market yet. >> But will this side remain stable in the coming period? Or will there be other instruments that will feed on that geopolitical tension? >> The only condition for America to reduce inflation on paper is to lower oil prices. >> Uh-huh. >> And I predict that oil prices will remain in the $50-$70 band for a long time, and even fall below $50 at times. Uh-huh. >> America will play for time on the eve of this industrial revolution. It will suppress inflation with low oil and low energy prices. This will open the door for the Fed to cut interest rates. But unfortunately, countries like Germany, which closed their nuclear power plants by relying on cheap oil prices, will face much bigger problems in the coming years. >> When we look at the commodities side, commodities with limited supply will continue to benefit from this commodity supercycle. Industrial commodities and uranium will stand out here. >> Now, let's put a comma here. So that Harika Hanım doesn't say, "Why didn't she ask this? Why didn't she deepen it?" I am pausing here for now because I will open a completely different perspective on commodities, but let's return to Greenland again. Now we see a profile that does what it sets its mind to, and I always interpret this as "My past actions are a guarantee of my future actions," and there is an image of Trump that his next step will be stronger than the previous one. >> When will the Greenland process begin? What will this mean for Europe? Denmark also initially reacted sharply, with a slightly high-pitched entry, but no one wants to confront America. In the end, he said, "I will ruin your economy." Openly. >> Whoever has the weapon sets the rules. >> Uh-huh. >> >> If not yesterday, then today; if not today, then tomorrow. America will definitely acquire what it wants. >> It will definitely acquire the commodities, energy, and rare earth elements it needs, wherever they are located. Because while carrying out an industrial revolution, while competing with China in artificial intelligence, it will certainly acquire the resources it needs. >> Well, then let's move on to the Fed. We talked about it a bit earlier. First, it was said that there would be 1 interest rate cut for 2026. >> But the rules of the game are also changing. They are constantly changing. Now Trump said that my new Fed chairman nominee must think like me. He has already opened a separate topic on the independence of the Central Bank. In the end, we predict that yes, it is clear that someone close to him will come. But who will come and how will Fed policies be shaped? Two candidates are emerging, two Kevins are emerging. Kevin Hass and Kevin Bosch. >> Yes. >> >> In the coming period, the Fed will proceed hand in hand with the US Treasury. They will pursue common policies. Now, if you ask who will be chosen and what its effect will be, if Kevin Hass is chosen, his name will sound more pleasing to the ear because it rhymes better with Scott Benton. But otherwise, nothing will change. Hmm. >> Because America currently wants favorable liquidity conditions, low bond yields, and therefore a weak dollar. >> H >> And it will achieve this. But Kevin W is a significant threat to the markets in the long term because he is actually a dove-looking hawk member >> and he supports a tight monetary policy. >> After America completes this industrial revolution, it may tighten liquidity conditions for financial markets. That would be a problem for the stock markets. In fact, in the last quarter, we saw the indices take a sharp hit with the Oracle balance sheet. >> >> But Oracle didn't just fall that day. A decline spread to all stocks. Because at the same time, Trump had announced that Kevin Watch is also a good candidate for Fed chairman. >> Yes. >> Therefore, it will not create a problem which one is chosen during the Trump era, but in the longer term, Kevin W will be a threat to the markets. >> Now let's move on to the Kevin Worch threat, but you just said that a weak dollar is desired, but on the other hand, global uncertainties are very high. So, in the coming period, will it be the dollar strengthened by global uncertainties or the desired weak dollar? The markets are underestimating Trump. When he first came to power and said he would impose tariffs, no one took him seriously, and there was a sharp sell-off in the indices with this "Liberation Day." >> Then he pointed to Venezuela's geopolitical risks and brought up the Venezuela story. No one believed him again, but he got what he wanted there too. Today, Trump tells us, "I want interest rates at 1%," and the market still doesn't believe Trump. Therefore, I predict that he will achieve what he wants once again. >> >> This year, the Fed will make a minimum of 2, and even more, interest rate cuts. It will push the dollar index towards the 90 level in America. Of course, here, when does the Fed cut interest rates? In fact, in the last 4 years, without reaching the inflation target even once >> Yes. >> >> it cut interest rates three times last year. >> With questionable inflation data, by the way. >> Bravo. It will continue to cut. It has stopped asset purchases and balance sheet reduction, and even started asset purchases. Now, why are they doing this? Because they have about 40 trillion dollars in debt. >> Uh-huh. >> >> And they are printing money to pay off these debts. >> If we had the debt of two people, and we tried to print money to pay off our debts, it would be counterfeiting >> and we would go to jail. But when central banks do this, it's called monetary policy. If you are in debt, you devalue the money you owe to lighten your debt burden. The American dollar will continue to weaken. >> Well, let's move on to the stock markets then. >> You said Kevin Av would be a problem for the stock markets. >> At the same time, in recent days, there have been these classic predictions for 2026 from major analysts, and we start following them closely. Predictions start coming from mid-December. There was a prediction from Goldman, and they also targeted some stocks. When we look at them roughly, it's not hard to understand. With the Fed's interest rate cuts, the service sector is expected to strengthen somewhat. Personal consumption is expected to increase, and stocks that will support this are expected to increase. But there was one point they underlined in bold: they warned not to expect a broad-based rally, to be very selective, to act very selectively. Let's refresh our memory. You said the same thing in our previous program. >> You said that we need to act very selectively. We need to look at specific stocks, specific focal points. When I asked what they were, you said strong cash flow, strong balance sheet. Now, looking at this framework, what kind of path do American stock markets present to investors in 2026? >> Then let's make a headline for 2026. It will be a year where not every stock, but the right stock, will rise significantly. >> Uh-huh. >> >> Of course, we will see some fluctuations this year. Because in election years, American indices generally move horizontally in the first six months. They tend to strengthen towards the election. When we look at the recent uncertainties in the market virus: geopolitical risks. >> Uncertainties about the new Fed chairman. >> >> The Supreme Court's decision on these tariffs. >> Yes. When we put all these together, there may be fluctuations, increased volatility, and even corrections in the indices between February and May. But let's also keep this in mind. The Trump administration will want to enter the election strongly with a strong economy and rising indices. Therefore, I predict that the real rally in the indices will begin in June. Uh-huh. >> In the first six months of the year, we can be cautious, and after June, we can create a more offensive, more risk-oriented, and increasing risk portfolio. >> Uh-huh. >> When we look at it sector by sector >> Yes. >> a bit specific >> of course. Now, we said the Fed will make interest rate cuts. My prediction is a minimum of two, and even more cuts. >> Uh-huh. >> What happens in this case? >> Mostly in the first half of the year? What would that distribution be like? I expect them to enter the election with supportive policies, and especially after the new Fed chairman takes office, the liquidity taps will be opened even further. We know that Powell's term ends around May-June. >> Yes. >> >> Of course, the market will want to price this in advance, undoubtedly. Now, the fact that interest rates will fall will highlight companies with dividend yields, dividend efficiency, strong cash flow, and balance sheets. >> Uh-huh. Secondly, as economic activity picks up and interest rates fall, meaning the yield curve steepens, this will benefit banks. The banking sector will have an advantage. As borrowing costs fall, small and medium-sized enterprises, i.e., the Russell 2000 index in America, will perform very well. >> In addition, as geopolitical risks increase, I would definitely keep cybersecurity companies in my portfolio. That is, in the past there were wars between armies >> but the world has digitized. If you want to erase a country from the world, it is enough to cut off its internet connection. You can collapse the banking system and even the economy. Therefore, I would definitely focus on cybersecurity companies. I would focus on commodity miners. Beyond that, I would play the second and third derivatives of artificial intelligence. That is, I would invest in companies that are moving from software as a service >> Uh-huh. >> to hardware, developing autonomous driving and robot technology, and designing systems that give robots movement, hearing, thinking, and action. >> So, the artificial intelligence theme will still be a dominant theme in 2026, as we understand it. >> Let's not say dominant, let's say we will be more selective. It will be a theme that changes phases. >> >> Therefore, companies that are embodying autonomous driving and robot technology will have an advantage. And of course, who benefits from the weak dollar theme? Emerging markets and commodities. >> If you ask which countries combine these two, I liked Brazil a lot last year. >> I continue to like Brazil this year, but this year I am adding another one. That is India. Can't we put India in Turkey's place somewhere? Will Turkey also offer opportunities to us? >> Well, we are a very valuable country. >> Especially in the Middle East, we are one of the influential powers. >> Uh-huh. >> >> Of course, we experienced some difficulties last year and perhaps even before, but currently, I expect that we will also gradually open our liquidity taps starting in June. >> Uh-huh. >> Will this be through interest rate policy or through the easing of some existing credit restrictions? >> I expect both to ease simultaneously. The reason is this: The dollar is weakening globally, and oil prices are continuing to fall. This will have a positive impact on our headline inflation. You know, if you tighten these liquidity taps for too long, not just in Turkey but in any country, unemployment will skyrocket. >> Uh-huh. Governments do not want to risk this. Therefore >> The election is also approaching. >> They will want to sacrifice one between inflation and employment. This is usually the fight against inflation. Now, when we look at it, we discussed this in our last program, remember? We said there are some opportunities, provided we are very selective. Here, we highlighted companies with pricing power. What were they? Telecommunication companies, aviation sector. >> These have now become necessities, and food companies. Now I'll add one more to them. You know that wind and solar energy is a rising trend in the world. >> Uh-huh. >> They are installing wind and solar panels everywhere. Our country is in a very advantageous position due to its coastal areas supporting wind and inland areas supporting solar power plants. But instead of investing in these, I would look at chemical companies that provide solutions for them. Both chemical companies that provide solutions for them and the raw materials for the pharmaceutical sector >> Uh-huh. >> >> 70% of the world is controlled by India and China. Now America and Europe want to diversify these to more friendly countries and secure their supply chains. I think chemical companies, provided we are selective, will stand out in Turkey. Chemical companies that provide solutions will stand out. >> I will not name them because most of them are family-owned companies in our country. >> Our viewers can find them by calling. >> When you say selective, what should our viewer choose, considering that we are not talking about a very large scale? >> The content of the materials they produce. >> Uh-huh. >> >> That is, companies that provide the necessary solutions for wind and solar panels and the necessary raw materials for the pharmaceutical sector. There are a few companies where all of these come together. They can look at them. >> You will find that part yourselves now, right? We taught you how to fish. The rest is up to you. Do we have anything else to add globally? While leaving the commodity topic behind, I will move on to my questions about the domestic market. Because I read the comments under our previous program, and we promised our viewers that we would ask their questions. Many questions came from there. There is a Brazil-India story globally. If you want, let's get your additions there, and then we'll continue with the domestic market. We said the commodity supercycle is continuing. The weak dollar theme benefits emerging markets and commodities. The countries where these two combine are Brazil and India. This year, I will reduce my weight on Brazil slightly compared to last year. Because there are elections, there is election uncertainty. I will add India to my portfolio with that reduced weight. >> Because growth is quite strong in both countries, real interest rates are high, and as their inflation continues to decline, they have room for interest rate cuts. Therefore, I will keep Brazil and India in my portfolio. >> Beyond that, I think a separate heading will be opened for precious metals. Let's start discussing that now. We will create a portfolio shortly. You will see it in the later minutes of the program. Of course, how much weight do we give to American stocks? What instruments in Brazil, India, and emerging markets could be beneficial? We will discuss these, but let's get to the periodic table. We have learned and memorized that we buy whatever we find. But what kind of trend can we expect? What will feed this process? Or what would make an investor start to be cautious? >> As long as populist and protectionist policies continue, these commodities will continue to rise. This is called the commodity supercycle. >> Of course, they ask me a lot these days. Has the commodity supercycle started, will it continue? And I say this. The commodity supercycle has not started. It wasn't there last year either. The commodity supercycle started in 2024. In August 2024, I said, "We are entering a very strong rally in commodities." >> When this commodity rally starts, like it did between 1970 and 1982, these populist protectionist policies >> these don't last 3-6 months. It's a rally that spans years. Commodities sensitive to supply shocks will rise significantly. For example, gold prices rose from $50 to $850, and silver prices from $1 to $50. >> Uh-huh. >> >> Currently, global debt is $320 trillion, and global money supply increases by 10% annually. That is, as money loses its purchasing power, keep metal, not paper, in your wallet. >> Well, where are we in that cycle now? >> I think we are still at the very beginning. Because there are investments in mines that haven't been made for years. >> Uh-huh. >> >> For the last 30 years, we have taken the cheap oil from the Middle East, produced cheaply in China, and sold it to the world in dollars. But this chain is now breaking. >> Uh-huh. >> >> America is overturning the table, bringing production back home. Currently, all countries are attacking commodity resources and even declaring it a national security issue. Now, due to the investments that have not been made in commodity mines for years, they have also become sensitive to supply shocks. When we evaluate this as a whole, I predict that especially industrial commodities, rare earth elements, and uranium will see a strong rally that will extend into the coming years. >> Now, in our broadcasts, we used to never talk about silver. Now we say we are talking about silver a lot, but our viewers already know silver by heart, both its price movements and the factors affecting it. Gold is already a commodity that everyone on the street can talk about. Now we are talking a lot about copper. Platinum, palladium. We have started talking about these a lot too. You added uranium to that, right? >> Yes. >> >> These seem to offer more potential. >> Correct. And we must add rare earth elements to that. Because the common feature of silver and rare earth elements is that they are vital for new technology. Uh-huh. >> And the size of the silver market in the world is 2 trillion dollars. The size of just one company, a technology company in America, is at the level of 4 trillion dollars. China has restricted its silver exports >> and is the largest exporter in the world. >> Therefore, when we look at it, silver is sensitive to supply shocks. In fact, in the last program, we said we would buy again if it went above $54-$55. Now it has reached historical highs. Well, from here, the risk of a sharp correction is also talked about a lot. The silver market is a thin market; when there is a pullback, the percentage drop in silver is not the same as in gold; it drops much more sharply. But on the other hand, our viewers are also thinking, "Have we missed the boat?" Will there be a buying opportunity in the short term when we read the recent developments? >> Now, silver is a very volatile instrument. They even call it the devil's metal because it's so volatile. Therefore, I do not recommend leveraged trading here. >> Uh-huh. >> If you are going to buy spot, yes, it might have risen a lot from here, but it is beneficial to buy in stages. That is, if you are buying from here, you will have the opportunity to add more when it pulls back a bit. >> H >> Ah. What would I pay attention to? First, there is a physical shortage. As I said, the market value of silver in the world is quite small. >> Yes. >> But on the other hand, I would look at this: I would follow the CME. This is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange where leveraged trades and the options market operate. They change margin rules, increase margin rates, and limit the maximum position you can hold. >> Uh-huh. They did this to the Hunt brothers in history, and they went from a very profitable situation in the silver market to losing all their wealth. Today, the impact of this will be more limited. In fact, they tried this in December, and the prices couldn't go up again. Therefore, I do not recommend leveraged trading, but as long as you buy spot and hold it, I predict that $100 will be tested in the coming years, and even above $100. Which instrument is not a problem for leveraged trading right now? >> Leveraged trading is a problem in every instrument unless you are very professional. >> >> Therefore, it depends on your risk appetite and experience. >> If you are truly a medium to long-term investor, I always prefer spot purchases over leveraged trading. >> I would also advise investors in this direction. But if you are a professional, of course, you can benefit from options or futures contracts. >> I wanted to hear it from you directly, as what you say will surely resonate more with our viewers. About how risky leveraged trading can be. Well, if we were to create a portfolio only from commodities, what percentage would we allocate? >> I would definitely allocate 20% of the portfolio to commodities. Uh-huh. >> >> I allocate 20% to precious metals and cryptocurrencies annually. >> If we were to make only a commodity portfolio, meaning gold, silver, platinum, considering them as a single portfolio. >> Okay, I would allocate 20% to copper, aluminum, rare earth elements, or their miners, and uranium, and add tungsten and tin to them. >> I want to return to our stock market again. Because I just checked, quite a few of our viewers have asked questions about it. They said, "Talk about the global front. Definitely don't let Mr. Berk leave without talking." But the stock market side is also being wondered about. Because they say we are very much in the red. That is, if we can find those right stocks, those selective stocks, those stocks with strong cash flow in 2026, can we compensate for our losses? For example, this is how the fundamental question is shaped. Will the stock market create such a possibility, or what would make it happen? >> I understand the investors' concerns very well, of course. Now, what we need to look at here is, unfortunately, patience. Because right now, you can understand it in the simplest way. Many of our viewers probably use mobile banking. >> >> Let them apply for a loan. >> For example, if you apply for a loan of 200,000 Turkish Liras with a 36-month maturity, what interest rate will the bank apply? >> Uh-huh. >> >> You can draw a conclusion from this. Yes, companies' borrowing costs are lower, but look at their effects on the economy. While borrowing costs are still high, opportunities in stocks will be limited and require patience. Here, as I said, provided we are very selective, I would prioritize telecommunication, aviation sectors, the chemical companies I mentioned, or this sector. >> Yes. >> >> If the Russia-Ukraine war ends, I would keep an eye on construction companies operating there, let's name Enka. Uh-huh. >> But if I make an investment, I definitely expect to get a return in June and afterwards. I invest according to that, according to that maturity. Well, I'm also curious about this. On the one hand, companies that pay dividends will also be in the focus of investors. At this point, how much should this be a parameter? >> Are you talking about Turkey? >> Yes, for Turkey. >> >> For Turkey, dividends are not very attractive right now. Because the guaranteed return, interest rates, are already on par with it, and perhaps even better. Therefore, for me, dividend-paying companies in Turkey are not very attractive today. >> Not a fundamental factor. The schedules of credit rating agencies have also been announced. We have Moody's and Fitch ahead, and S&P in April. Will there be a positive revision from them? Because they are not priced in yet. Will that also be a supporting factor? >> Of course, we always look at this: the state of the economy, inflation, interest rate policy, stock performance, but there are also external developments. What I see right now is that the relationship of our current government with America is quite good. >> Uh-huh. >> >> And I predict that they will support us economically from time to time. These reports will certainly start to reflect my prediction of good outcomes. They will write positive scenarios about Turkey. >> They will do this not only in Turkey but also in South Korea and Japan. America wants to develop the countries it has taken as allies economically as well. I foresee an advantage here. >> There was also this news flow, and I'm curious how it will be priced in the stock market. "Let's give the S400s back to Putin," >> "and thus, by pleasing Trump, let's also get our F35s." So, how will this reflect on defense industry stocks, which our viewers are surely wondering about? Since these are developments we are likely to watch in the coming period, how will they be priced, what will be their effect? >> These will be headline news. What is most important for financial markets is actually looking at three things: macroeconomic data, geopolitical developments, and liquidity. >> >> When these three meet in the same line, it is the most positive performance for stocks. What we will look at here is that I foresee a good position on the geopolitical side. As of the current situation, macroeconomic data will tend to improve with a weak dollar and falling oil. And when the liquidity taps are opened, as I said, there will be opportunities in our stock market, not for every stock, but with selectivity. >> Now, one of our viewers wrote a question that stuck in my mind. I think it's a very good question. Considering the current conjuncture, let's imagine and think about someone with a fixed income. They only have a salary and live on their salary. But they have a standard of living that allows them to allocate a portion of it to investment. As someone with a fixed income, can I make a correct investment and improve my standard of living? >> >> Of course, you can. In fact, I have created a model portfolio for investors this year. >> In that, companies in the model portfolio will benefit from the increase in stock value over a 3-year period and from dividend income. >> I did this for America and global markets. In Turkey, too, if you are a long-term investor, you will benefit. But here you have to decide now. Are you an investor or a day trader? That is, if you buy a stock for the long term and then follow it day by day, its price fluctuations will both disrupt your discipline and make you uneasy. >> We are not in a period where the stock you bought today will rise by 15-20%. It is a process that requires patience. >> So, my next question would be this. For a young friend, let's say in their early twenties, earning money. At the beginning of their life, what would be a single piece of advice for a younger friend? >> First, they should not be afraid to take risks. That is, if you want to be a good stock trader, a good investor, you have to go bankrupt at least twice. The younger you are >> you can't see the peaks without seeing the valleys. Because you need to see the risks. >> Actually, the biggest risk for new investors is this: suddenly investing in financial markets, stock markets, and making a lot of money. >> Uh-huh. >> >> Then, because they always think it will be like that, excessive self-confidence comes. Then they lose what they earned in a very short time and go into the negative. You can see examples of this both in history and perhaps those who experienced it in Borsa Istanbul in the last 3-4 years may have experienced it partially. >> They will definitely write it under the video. I can already predict the comments. >> Therefore, don't be afraid to try. Make sure you do enough research. >> When necessary, separate yourself from the herd. If you believe in your own opinion, definitely stand behind it. >> Uh-huh. >> >> As long as you back it up, no one can tell you better than your own decision. >> Also, we talked about Bitcoin in the previous program. You said then that it might be speculative, it might be well-founded or not, don't look at these. If the goal is profit, as we say, "Do you want to eat grapes or beat the vine?" If you want to eat grapes, there can be opportunities in Bitcoin under certain conditions. How do you see the cryptocurrency universe right now? Will it also be a rising value in 2026? It has pulled back quite a bit from the peak it reached. >> Actually, gold and silver have limited supply. For monetary inflation >> silver is actually an instrument used, but these protect you against monetary inflation. That is, we said global debt is $320 trillion, and global money supply increases by 10% annually. >> Uh-huh. >> >> These instruments with limited supply will stand out. Now, Bitcoin, of course, has not yet proven itself against gold and silver. >> Uh-huh. >> The realization of your predicted price target may be spread over a longer period. This is quite normal. But what we need to look at here is balance. >> Uh-huh. >> >> Now, the year is 1789. There is the French Revolution. Blood is flowing everywhere. Talleyrand, one of the most colorful politicians of that era, is watching the chaos outside from the window of his office opened in Paris. His deputy says, "Sir, who is winning?" Without losing his composure, he replies, "We are winning." That is, Talleyrand is telling us that you should focus not on which side you are on, but on being on the winning side. >> Uh-huh. >> >> As long as money continues to lose its purchasing power, the right question is not gold, silver, or Bitcoin. It should be how much of each we should allocate to our portfolio. I would give a total of 20% to these three in the portfolio. And I continue to expect Bitcoin to reach $150,000 and even higher thereafter. >> Well, then, shall we finally create our final portfolio? And to our viewers, I would like to say this: Yes, I did not ask for many target prices in this program. How much will copper be, how much will silver be, how much will gold be? I wanted to move away from clichés a bit. I thought it was important to see the general picture now and to catch clues on how to analyze correctly. Therefore, I deliberately, intentionally, and consciously did not want to ask how much gold would be at the end of the year, but let's see how the distributions will be shaped in our final portfolio. >> Should I bring 100,000 again? Let it be simple, easy to calculate. I brought 100,000, handed it over to you? What kind of portfolio would you make for me? I would keep 50% in stocks, but global stocks, meaning not just Turkey, but America, emerging markets, Europe, looking at it as a whole. >> I would allocate 50% to stocks. >> I would keep 20% in precious metals as a basket of gold, silver, and Bitcoin. >> I would keep 20% in commodities. >> And I would keep 10% in short-term US Treasury bonds or cash, so that I can use potential corrections as buying opportunities. Well, Berk, thank you very much. It was a very enjoyable conversation. We hope it was for our viewers too. Thank you for coming. Thank you very much. >> You're welcome. It was enjoyable. >> If you liked it, please click the like button you see there. We read your comments with pleasure. If you want us to host Berk Dinçtürk again, let's put a lot of pressure together and host him again. Take care of yourselves. Goodbye. >> [music] >> Invest