Transcription
[music] What if a civilizational crisis was predictable and we knew when it would happen? That's exactly what authors Neil How and William Strauss suggest in their book, The Fourth Turning.
According to Strauss, the western world is operated on cycles of about 85 years, making four eras each lasting approximately 21 years. Each era has its own archetypal persona or mood, ushering in new social, political, and economic climates in response to previous conditions. The ultimate climax of the cycle is crisis, from which the succeeding generation recovers by entering into the high.
The theorists behind the Fourth Turning define a generation as all people born within a roughly 21-year lifespan. Childhood is 0 to 20, young adulthood is 20 to 40, middle-aged years 40 to 60, and old age beyond 60. While some view US history as a succession of centuries or political waves, Strauss and Hal view it from the standpoint of Anglo-American generations stretching back to 1433.
Doing a little math with a 21-year generation means we are now in the 29th generation since 1433, taking note, of course, that very few modern American lineages actually go back to quote an American ancestor that far. Over those 29 generations, we should have seen now some seven major crises during every fourth generation.
The particular alignment of the theory in early US history is difficult to pin down, particularly because it's really British history. Beginning in the 1400s, the first major crisis, according to Neil and How, is the War of the Roses. Moving forward in history, the next crises are the Armada Crisis in the late 1500s, the Glorious Revolution in the late 1600s. Another century forward brings an American audience to more familiar territory with the Revolutionary War in the late 1700s. Now, the rest are fairly easy to guess. There's the US Civil War starting in 1859 and then World War II in the 1940s, bringing us to a point of unease as we now appear due for another major crisis and war.
There's at least enough evidence in the regular occurrence of crises in American history to warrant a deeper exploration. What brings us to the point of crisis roughly each century? So now let's turn to the four stages of the cycle.
Starting with the high. This is the first stage, emerging after a fresh crisis. It's during this time that citizens generally seek stability. The generations living, working, and possibly fighting during the past crisis know the depth to which society can decay and seek respite from the chaos. People turn towards stronger institutions in government, law enforcement, and civil functions, but also typically in churches and communal organizations, too. Think of the post-World War II high and an American population relieved by the end of the second global war, but also invigorated by its victory. They return with high trust in its governing powers and national identity. Strauss and How placed this era as spanning between, say, 1946 and 1963 in the current cycle. The cracks in this wave, however, are already understood. Minority voices out of step with the majority's values in government and social organization feel stifled by an overbearing political and social pressure.
The second era is that of the awakening, where personal autonomy begins to eclipse societal duty and its many expectations. Individual-minded movements, tired of social disciplines, attack the institutions in a bid to become more "true to themselves." The institutions are believed to stifle individual creativity, spirituality, and bonafide culture. In our current wave, this is captured by the 1960s hippie culture and runs up through the tax revolts of the early 1980s.
Now, in the third era, the unraveling, we reach the polar opposite of the first era, the high. Here, the institutions are at their weakest, while individualism reigns supreme. The unraveling comes when society, after tasting the fruits of their individual liberties, decide fully to disengage from societal restrictions and seek really only their individual fulfillment. The Fourth Turning places this era as beginning in the 1980s and ending shortly after the turn of the millennium. Now cracks in the social functions are observed, increasing crime, culture wars, and social dysfunction that will mature in the last stage, the crisis.
This is the fourth turning, the era of destructive action, commonly marked by wars, revolutions, and political turmoil. Sounds a little familiar. Institutions are remade to defend against external threats to the nation, and individualism is again at odds with the national interest. The last crisis in the US began with the economic crash of 1929 and ended with World War II. The authors place this era as beginning in 2008 and ending sometime in the 2030s. We'll return to this shortly, as this is where we are now.
But let's move into another important part of the Fourth Turning theory, which is the archetypes. This is how each generation dons the characteristics of a particular archetype, either that of the prophet, the nomad, the hero, or the artist, based on which two eras their formative years, childhood through young adulthood, overlap. The archetype describes the common traits of the majority in a generation, including basic attitudes toward politics, values, culture, risk, and family. Living through two eras by their midlife stages, a generation gradually adopts an archetype in response to the first half of their life, which then guides societal actions and attitudes leading into the third and fourth turnings of their lifetime, whether they be periods of strong institutions or strong individualism.
Here are the four archetypes and their characteristics. The prophet archetype is brought about by a childhood within a high era where community life is strong and there's a general consensus in society and its ordering. The last prophet generation was that of the baby boomers, approximately 1943 to 1960.
The nomad generations are born during an awakening era where individualism begins to attack institutions perceived as stifling social ideals and spiritual flourishing. The current nomad generation is Gen X, 1961 to 1981. This generational archetype is individualistic and pragmatic.
Third is the hero generation, which grows up in an unraveling when individualism rules the land. So millennials, 1982 to about 2005, in How and Strauss's definition, are the current hero archetype, hearkening back to the GI generation that fought in World War II. If anyone is going to fight a war soon, it's probably the millennial generation, as the older cohort of that, at this point.
And last but not least is the artist generation. They're born during a crisis, as institutions are reborn and strengthened amid a wave of public consensus and ethics of personal sacrifice. Currently, those born from 2005 onward, including all of my children, are the Homeland generation under the artist archetype.
Each of these archetypal generations is brought about by their early experiences. Strauss and How trace the various generations and their archetypes back to the late medieval era, finding the same patterns of characteristics in successive generations depending on which eras occupied their childhood and young adult years.
So where are we now? Since 2005, we are firmly in the crisis phase. According to How and Strauss, we've witnessed a 2008 economic recession, along with increasing financial hardship due to inflation and ballooning housing prices in the early 2000s. COVID rocked the world biologically and politically. Political divides may be higher now than ever over the past century, at least in the West. The political scene has become more contentious and violent, as politically motivated assassinations, attempts, and verbal support for violence are increasingly common.
What this crisis era is missing historically, at least, is a war. However, if you include US proxy support for Ukraine, the US has further been involved, albeit remotely, in a war with a near peer in Russia, while a Taiwan invasion also threatens war with China in the coming years. War is certainly in the air, and the Fourth Turning isn't quite over. The previous crisis era ended in World War II. So, it's not absurd, especially with all the warning signs today, that another world war might end our current era sometime by the early 2030s.
Typical of a crisis, our institutions are already undergoing renovation. The current US administration is progressing with a strong agenda for federal cuts, reform, and restructuring. At the governmental level, the US is aiming to restore trust in its institutions. The desire for stronger institutions in response to the current chaos may not stop at the government either. More fundamentally, the institutions of marriage, family, and church have been denigrated over the past several decades. And the hero archetype will likely work to restore these institutions as we enter a new high era after the current crisis. As the 2030s progress, millennials will increasingly take the reins of society and rebuild its institutions for more coherent cultural order.
So, thanks for watching. If you enjoyed this video, be sure to like and subscribe for more content like this. And be sure to leave a comment down below on where you see us headed in the four eras of the Fourth Turning. Until next time.