Transcription
Since the end of the Cold War, Poland has been arguably America's most loyal ally in Europe. However, relations apparently fell to an all-time low over the weekend after a clash between Poland's parliamentary speaker and the US ambassador over on X led to the ambassador severing diplomatic relations with the Polish speaker, sparking an angry response from Poland's prime minister, Donald Tusk. So, in this video, we're going to take a look at what exactly went down last week and whether this could really be the beginning of the end for the hallowed US Poland relationship. Never miss an episode and always feel in the loop by subscribing and ringing the bell.
Let's start with why Poland considers the US as one of its most important allies. Since joining NATO in 1999, Poland has consistently argued for a stronger US military presence on NATO's eastern flank. Hosting American troops, missile defense systems, and infrastructure was viewed as the ultimate security guarantee. Far more credible than European-led defense initiatives that many in Warsaw saw as underpowered or politically confused. Today, around 8,000 US troops are stationed in Poland, and the country spends more than any other NATO member on defense, with its military budget set to reach 5% of GDP in 2026. Poland also stands out in Europe as one of the largest purchases of American weapons. According to Poland's foreign minister, the total value of American arms deals with Poland is now estimated at roughly $50 billion.
However, since Trump's return to the White House, maintaining these crucial transatlantic ties has become increasingly difficult for Poland's pro-EU ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Trump has accused European countries of not doing enough in NATO, threatened Greenland sovereignty, and even downplayed the contributions of European and Polish soldiers to US-led operations in Afghanistan. All of which provoked a sharply negative reaction from Poland's government. More generally, Poland's political class don't like Trump's apparent affinity for spheres of influence politics, given that historically this is exactly the sort of politics that has led to Poland subjugation. And there was some unease when it was reported that in an earlier draft of Trump's new national security strategy, Poland was singled out as one of four countries that the US wants to draw away from the EU. The government has thus been forced to walk a delicate line defending its European allies while simultaneously trying to avoid a rupture with the US, not least because Ukraine depends heavily on continued US engagement.
Originally, US Poland relations seem to be holding up all right. However, last Monday, relations between the Polish government and the Trump administration took a sharp turn for the worse. After receiving a letter from the American and Israeli parliamentary speakers to support Trump's bid for the Nobel Peace Prize, Vojimir Zaja, Poland's parliamentary speaker and MP from a junior partner party in Tusk's coalition, took to X to say he would not do so. In his post, Jajes the added that Trump does not deserve it and that Trump represents power politics and by the use of force pursues transactional politics. In an angry response, the US ambassador to Poland, Tom Rose, announced the US would have no further dealings, contacts or communications with Zia for his unprovoked insults directed at Trump, essentially severing diplomatic ties with the speaker. Rose then proceeded to engage in a social media spat with a random Polish student on X and threatened to withdraw American forces from Poland. Trump responded firmly and accused the US ambassador to Warsaw of lecturing instead of showing Paul's respect. Rose, however, refused to back down and replied to Tusk's post by stating that despite the Polish prime minister himself being a model ally and great friend of the US, Zajesty's comments were potentially damaging to the Polish government. Rose went on to warn that insulting Trump, who is, in Rose's words, the greatest friend Poland has ever had in the White House, was the last thing a Polish leader should do.
This all exacerbated a pre-existing split in Poland's domestic politics, with politicians from Poland's main opposition, the Nationalist Law and Justice Party, who were generally pretty friendly with Trump, throwing their weight behind the US and demanding Zest's resignation on the grounds that he's apparently endangering national security. For context, law and justice basically argue that Tusk isn't doing enough to maintain relations with Washington and should get closer to the US even if that means moving further from the EU. For instance, law and justice politicians have pushed back against Poland's participation in the EU's new defense fund on the grounds that the money can't be spent on American weapons. Similarly, Poland's President Carol Navoski, who's aligned with law and justice and was endorsed by Trump at last year's elections, has taken steps to get closer to Trump. Narvoski was invited to the White House shortly after winning his election and has repeatedly praised Trump's leadership. Speaking to the BBC in January, he claimed that Trump is the only world leader capable of protecting Europe from the threat of Russia. More recently, the two met on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, and Trump invited Novoski to join his board of peace. Now, law and justice are probably hoping that cultivating favor in Washington will weaken Tusk's coalition and allow the party to present itself as Poland's only credible guarantor of national security ahead of next year's elections.
However, this could very well backfire if Trump's allure with conservative voters waines, as has happened in several other European countries. Poland appears to be no exception. A Pew Research Center survey published last June found that only 35% of polls expressed confidence in Trump to do the right thing in world affairs, compared with 75% who said the same of Joe Biden. Another survey by Pew also found a sharp decline in overall perceptions of the US with positive views falling from 77% a year ago to 55%. More recent survey suggest even deeper skepticism. A poll by SW Research published earlier this month in one of Poland's leading daily newspapers found that just over half of respondents now believe the US is no longer a reliable ally.
So what happens next? Well, later today, Navroski is due to host an emergency security meeting to discuss Poland American relations. Tusk is likely to frame Law and Justice's loyalty to Trump as a political liability rather than an asset and argue that Poland should reduce its reliance on the US for its security. While this of course won't go down well with the opposition, things do seem to be going in this direction anyway. In the EU's new defense fund, Poland is planning to splash out on European arms. And according to a recent interview with a strategic adviser to the chief of the Polish general staff, contingency plans are already being drawn up in a scenario where the US doesn't show up in a crisis. As is so often the case these days, a lot of how this plays out depends on influence. Not only who technically has the power to make things happen, but also who has the sway to make sure it does. That's why last year we put together a list of the world's 25 most influential people using rankings from you, our audience, as well as from our journalists. This year, we've done the same, producing a brand new ranking for 2026. In the upcoming issue of our magazine, Too Long, we explore our list, telling the stories of a number of people who made the list. From the return of Donald Trump and the calculated moves of Xi Jinping to the AI frontiers of Sam Alman, we look to the new entries. New York's first Muslim mayor, Zoran Ramdani, the radical shift of Pope Leo I 14th, and bastions of technocracy like Prime Minister Mark Carney, as well as the shadows that still linger like Jeffrey Epstein. As always, this issue of too long features a whole lot more than just our most influential people ranking. We also have a whole featured segment on how the UK became more divided than ever, and how a broken country could rebuild, the fragmentation emerging within the EU, how religion is being used by politicians around the world, and much, much more. You can pre-order your copy at tulong.news. Or to get the best deal, you can just subscribe to the magazine. Doing so gets you 20% off every copy for the lifetime of your subscription. And if you use code spring26, you'll get an additional £3 off your first copy, bringing the price as low as £4.99. Find out more and order your copy today at tulong.news.