Transcription
There's some major shifts going on in the market right now, and I'm going to talk about exactly where I think we're headed in the next one to two weeks. I'm also going to talk about three stocks I purchased this week. One leaps call option position that I put on, and another leaps call option position I will be putting on next week. So, let's go ahead and dive into it.
Remember, this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I'm personally doing for educational purposes only. Results may vary.
Now, let's take a look at the account. As you can see, we're kind of hovering right there near all-time highs. And if you do want to see me hit my 8-figure goal and follow along that journey, please click that subscribe button down below. And if you get any value out of this video, make sure to hit the thumbs up button. I would greatly appreciate that, and I appreciate you being here.
So, let's go ahead and dive into the realized gain loss for documentation purposes. I like to do this at the end of each month and kind of showcase exactly how we did for the month. So, for this current month, um, I'm up 53K, which is about a 4, you know, 4.3% return on the portfolio, which is great that I'm hitting my goals, but obviously results vary month-to-month, and obviously results vary based on account size. So, uh, not a bad month for me, but, uh, I'm not the only one doing it.
As you can see here in my private mastermind, Options Trading University, we have clients that share their inspiration, and I wanted to showcase um a couple clients here that showcased their inspiration yesterday here. Chad, pretty nice inspiration here. Um, it was wonderful to see, and it's great to see uh clients, you know, sharing that with the group because um, you know, it inspires us all. So, nice to see that.
If you do want access to my Ryan's Trades channel and my leaps, entries, and exits right here, that'll be at the top of the description down below. I also do give away free trade ideas on my Instagram and my free newsletter. So, be sure to be subscribed to both of those. They're both free.
So, let's go ahead and dive into the US Economic Calendar. So, next week, there may be some volatility. I think we're going to be definitely a little choppy in the markets here. US unemployment rate comes out on Friday. So, that's going to be the big one um that I'm really looking out for. And then this week, okay, we had a few things come out. Now, the big one was for me was GDP. Okay, GDP came in at a surprise of 3.8% growth. So, that's actually showing that the US economy is very strong. So, that's, you know, that's good for the markets. That's what we want to see. um, initial jobless claims actually came in less than expected, but this data right here being a little bit on the hotter side shifted things with the interest rate cuts.
So, if we go to the CME Fed Watch tool, which I look at every week, it's basically the futures that tell us if there's going to be a rate cut or not. Um, October, we're pricing in a rate cut, 89% probability. So, very high probabilities there. Now, December changed. Okay, these probabilities were much higher in the 80s, I think even in the '90s at one point. We're going to get two cuts this year, two more cuts, but it looks like potentially that rate cut will be pushed out to January. Now, that did shift the markets a little bit, right? So, the markets expected two rate cuts this year and potentially it maybe just be one, and then one more in January, which is not bad. That's not a bad thing, but um, the market obviously doesn't like surprises. So, this week we saw a lot of a little bit of volatility. Had a nice baby pullback here. Let's measure this pullback here on QQQ, which tracks the NASDAQ 100. Yeah, we had, you know, a 2.3% pullback. So, nothing substantial, but this green arrow right here. Okay, O towards the end of October, we do see a lot of earnings coming up. Okay, and I'm going to talk about some stocks that I'm purchasing into earnings. And I think until then, we will be kind of in choppy mode.
So, uh, let me go ahead and draw out what I think is going to go on here. I think potentially Monday, we might have an update. Okay, we might even double top here and try to, you know, push this um, this resistance zone at 603, and then we might bounce back down and head a little bit lower. So, I think we're going to be choppy here up until earnings. And I think earnings is what could bring us to new levels on QQQ. Especially if, you know, the MAG 7 companies are reporting good earnings, lots of companies are reporting good earnings. That's when I think we could shoot up to the 610, maybe even, you know, 620, 630 area on QQQ. So, that's kind of the expectation here is that we're going to be consolidating, which is extremely healthy for the markets. We need consolidation to happen. It's not good if we keep going up to new all-time highs every single week because that means on the downside, there's a lot more risk and a potential 10%, 12%, maybe even 15% correction would not be out of the cards. But since we are con starting to consolidate here, I think maybe a more of a 5 to 7% pullback would be likely. And, you know, if we do that next week based off of, you know, maybe the unemployment report comes in a little um worse than expected, you know, maybe we head down a good three, maybe even 5%, maybe we head even lower than this line right here. So, maybe down to the 570 area on QQQ, but I'm not really expecting that.
So um, you know, right now is kind of a stock picker's market. So, when we consolidate like this, that's when people are starting to rotate out of the winning stocks, going into some of these stocks that have been depressed for a while and buying those up. So, there's definitely some opportunity. You just have to be on the lookout, lookout for the discounts. And one of the stocks that I bought leaps on today is one of those stocks. I'm going to show you exactly which one it is. Okay.
So um, yeah, great opportunity here. VIX is in the 15s. Kind of dropped off a cliff today. Uh, we were up in the high 16s, even pushing 17 at the beginning of the day, and now we're in the mid-5s. So, you know, fear could really start subsiding here. Um, I guess we'll just see going into next week. Obviously, I'm following my VIX cash allocation rules. Let's take a look at those.
If we take a look at the VIX cash allocation levels, we're between 15 and 20. So, there's slight fear still in the market. So, essentially, I could have 20 to 25% sitting in cash on the sidelines, ready to take advantage of any dips in the market. And right now, I have about, I'm right in line with that 20% because my Facebook puts um are expiring worthless. So, that's going to free up like 75 grand worth of cash. So um, you know, I'm following those cash levels to the tea right now just because, you know, we never know when that next pullback is going to come, and I want to be prepared for that. So, that's what we're doing right here.
Uh, let's go ahead and jump into the stocks that I purchased this week. A couple of them are earnings plays. And one of them, the first one is HIMS. Okay, HIMS has gone through quite a significant amount of volatility. Okay, whether it's the um GLP1 compounding lawsuits that were coming out, right, and then getting thrown out by the judge, HIMS has withstood that. Uh, HIMS has also withstood, you know, uh, earnings that weren't quite as stellar. Kind of dropped off a cliff here, right? Um, they've also withstood FDA warnings, which was issued after the Super Bowl. So, there's lots of things that HIMS has had to go through, but fundamentally, this is a very sound company. Okay, PE ratio 73. It's a high growth company, so I don't expect it to be in the 20s or anything like that, but it's below 100, and that's what I like to see on high growth companies. The chart is upward trending. That is something that is crucial when selling options or doing the wheel option strategy, which I talk about on my channel. If you don't know what that is, there's many tutorials on my channel. Um, that's what I do primarily. But this is the type of action we want to see. Kind of a big range of consolidation here. Okay, so this is kind of what we've saw back here before making new all-time highs and back here before shooting up to new all-time highs. And that's kind of what I expect from HIMS going forward. HIMS is a very, very strong stock, and I do believe they are a major market mover um as far as being kind of the Netflix of healthcare, the Amazon of healthcare. This is a game-changing company. So, I do believe in them. I really like their CEO. Their fundamentals are great. Uh, cash on hand is great. So, we're seeing a lot of bullish momentum here. We aren't overbought on the RSI. We had a RSI bullish crossover here. Um, and MACD is showing some good momentum to the upside.
So, what I did this week, let's go ahead and take a look at the portfolio. Remember, this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I'm personally doing for educational purposes only. Results may vary. But if we go into the account, you can see that I added actually four more cash-secured puts um this week. Okay. And basically, let's go into the account. the the total position. I brought the total position up to six figures. So, we're at 118,800 worth of cash-secured puts to collect about 5,400 bucks for October. Now, what I would do this week or this next week rather is I would probably go out to the end of October. There's a lot of implied volatility here in these options. So um, you know, something to be taking advantage of. Um, so I would go out to the end of October and to play it safe, I'd probably go somewhere to like the 50 strike. I already have 20 50 puts, okay? So, I like the 50 strike. So, I'd go back to the 50 strike, collect 220 bucks, which is a potential 4.96% ROI. Obviously, results vary there, but I like that. I like those returns, and it's a 24 delta, so it has a good chance of expiring worthless. Worst-case scenario, if the stock goes all the way down to 50 or lower, I will be forced to buy 100 shares at 50. But if we take a look at the chart, okay, I take it, I look at it as discounts. All right, so from current highs all the way down to 50 would be about, yeah, about a 14% discount. So, that's amazing on the stock, right? Because if I believe in it long-term, I want to buy it at lower prices. All right. And from all-time highs, right, that would be about a 28% discount. So, really liking HIMS here. Um, it is heading towards that upper Bollinger band. So, it would be best to get it on a red day, but, you know, if you're bullish long-term, I think the 50 strike is safe. That's below uh this middle Bollinger band line and below the 50-day moving average. So um, really liking HIMS right now. The premiums are excellent, and you could get very far away from where the stock is currently at.
The next stock that I added this week was CLS, Celestica. Wonderful chart. Wonderful fundamentals. If you look at the chart on this thing, look at that chart. Upward trending. Sure, dips, little crashes here and there, but upward trending. That's what we want to see on a chart when we're running the wheel option strategy or we're selling options or even buying the stock, right? You want an upward trending chart. It could be the greatest company, but if they don't have an upward trending chart, that's not going to help us make money, right? So, um, here on Celestica, you know, I sold some more puts when it dipped down here. here that would have been a good leap spying opportunity. I didn't get in. Um, but I did sell some puts. So, we're not overbought on the RSI. We're a little, we're definitely below that upper Bollinger band, kind of at the mid Bollinger band line. So, it's a perfect kind of entry point. And I'm going to show you what I did.
So, let's go to the positions. And you can see my position on CLS is now pretty significant, pretty substantial. 154,000 in cash-secured puts. All right. And I have the 220s, the 210s, and the 225s today or actually rather uh yesterday I added the 210s. Okay, so why did I go out to October 31st? So, that is actually earnings week. Earnings week implied volatility is 81%. Um, as you can see here on the right-hand side, uh plus, you know, the expected move is plus or minus 50 for earnings. So, the stock could fall all the way down to 193, let's call it, or it could go up to 293. So, you do have to be aware of the expected move. But for me, I'm fine owning it at 210. So, I went out to this week and I went to the 210 strike and I picked up um, let's see, I'm actually up on these a little bit. So, I picked up a little bit more, but if I were to sell those today, I would have picked up, let's just say 975 bucks. That's a 23 delta with a potential ROI of 4.87%, which obviously results vary based off of where the price is at. But that is a wonderful premium there right for earnings week. So, I really like the 210 strike. I'd probably go back to that one or I'd even go up to the 215 or even 220 because I already have the 220s and pick up a potential ROI of 6.25% for earnings. Okay. So, that is a wonderful ROI there. And I really like Celestica in the portfolio. It's a strong company, good moes. They, you know, create many of the um electronics for data centers, the switches for the data centers. Uh, like, you know, for instance, they made most of the products for the Xbox 360 way back in the day. So, they make a lot of um, you know, physical, they assemble the products and manufacture these products for these huge companies. So, I love how they're in the AI space, but they're not directly, you know, creating chips or anything like that. They are just creating some of the hardware for the data center components. So, I really like Celestica. um, wonderful stock in the portfolio, and I think right now is a good time to kind of get into those 210s because, you know, 210 if assigned, right, from all-time highs, let's just take a look, that would be about a 20, you know, almost 20% discount. Okay, from current prices, that's about uh, you know, 14% discount. So, not bad. You're able to get far away from the stock and collect a decent amount of premium there, which you typically don't see in these types of stocks with low PE ratios at 51. Okay, so Celestica was the second position I added. Wonderful company, good fundamentals, um, upward trending chart, great premiums.
The next one I added was SoFi. All right, SoFi had a nice little pullback here, which gave us more opportunity to just sell more puts. Okay. Um, every time it does that, every time, every time it comes down to this like mid Bollinger band, wonderful, wonderful entry. So um, you know, we'll go to my position. You could see that I actually rolled the whole position out to next month for earnings. $161,000 worth of cash-secured puts at the 26.5 strike. Okay, now you could get even better entry than me potentially on Monday. Okay, October 31st, implied volatility 73% plus or minus expected move of $5. So, by earnings week, we could see this, if it's trading at this current price, we could potentially see this stock at 22.95 or upwards of, you know, 31.95. So, not a bad uh entry here, but I probably, to be safer, you know, if I were to get back in, I have the 26 and a halfs, totally fine with that, but um, you know, I would probably go for the 25 and a halfs, collect 121 bucks, which is a potential ROI of 5.05%. 05%, results vary based on where the stock is at. So, I like that. Um, really, really good uh ROI there. So, very good. And also, if you look at where that is, 25.5 all the way down here, and if we kind of take that from all-time highs, that's about a 16% discount if assigned on the stock. Okay.
Now, let's talk about the two LEAPS opportunities because these are always fun, and I know you guys like when I talk about LEAPS. Leaps call options are definitely higher risk, higher leverage, but, you know, I'm very, very cognizant and careful with my entries on these. That's why in my group, Options Trading University, you know, my clients get real-time call-outs, right? Like right when I enter, I type it in the chat. I'm like, "Hey guys, this is exactly where I entered, where the stock was at, how much I paid for the call option." Um, so, you know, make sure to check that out if you're interested um in those call-outs.
Amazon is at a wonderful discount here. Amazon is one of those solid companies that has so much growth potential in the future. PE ratio is at a a low for the year, I believe. Yeah, 33 PE, and it's trading at the lower Bollinger band, kind of hovering right above the 200-day moving average. So, you don't see this too often on Amazon, but this is actually one of the companies that I probably use every single day, whether it's watching Prime or ordering on Prime, right? So, I love Amazon. Uh, great fundamentals, upward trending chart, great premiums, and earnings are coming up.
So, what I did here, all right, we're going to go to the portfolio, and I actually purchased some LEAPS. All right. So, um, we entered, let me see where my Amazon position. A ve I have a very, very, very big position on Amazon. Okay. I I upped this to 180K in cash-secured puts. I went at-the-money, in-the-money. Like, I'm okay getting assigned in the 220s because I think it's going much higher. I think it's going to pass 240 by earnings. Um, so that's why, you know, I'm going to get assigned on these three uh cash-secured puts at 225 today. But I bought the Jan 15, 2027, 200 calls. All right, I'm already up like, you know, 0.83. But I plan on holding these until at least 10 to 15, maybe 20% next week. And if I grab that, if I hit those numbers, I'm going to close it out. But, you know, we went to the options chain. I went out very far in time, Jan 15, 2027, just in case we have a black swan event or anything like that. I'm going to have plenty of time to be right. And I went ahead and I went ahead and picked one of those or four of those up um each for, you know, about 4,800 bucks. Okay, so that was a 71 delta, 4,800 bucks versus 22,000 to buy 100 shares, which I'm already doing. Um, I'm going to buy be buying 300 shares today technically, and on Monday, I'll have those in my account. So, yeah, we're just kind of loading up the boats on Amazon right now. Great leaps opportunity because it is at the lower Bollinger band. So, the probabilities of it going back within these Bollinger bands is about 95%. Okay, when it pops out, this about a 5% outlier move. Um, it's a two-standard deviation move, which means that, you know, only 5% of the time Amazon is doing that. As you can see back here, it did it and then went back up. So, I'm kind of expecting that. And if it doesn't, if it goes a little lower, that's fine. We got decent entry, but I am expecting kind of a recovery from here at least. if it does go lower, it'll probably bounce off that 200-day moving average. So um, yeah, that's that's kind of the move there for the LEAPS. And with the cash-secured puts, you know, we're we're trying to get assigned for earnings, which are I think the week of October 31st.
So, let's talk about the next leaps call option opportunity, which is actually Meta. Meta is approaching the lower Bollinger band. I'm going to wait until for next week. If we could get somewhere between 7, let's just call it 729 and 735. Okay? If we could get to this range, I will go ahead and purchase the leaps call option and I'll shout it out in my group. Um, we'll grab that, and then we'll ride that back up to, you know, somewhere between 770, maybe even 780. And that'll be a fun one because I do think Meta is at a discount right now. Currently trading at a 26 PE ratio. Bearish momentum on the RSI. Looks like, you know, bearish momentum on the MACD. Looks like that could happen for another day or two. So, hopefully, we could get an entry there. And um, if we go into the portfolio, okay, you could see that I have the Meta 740 puts. They're expiring worthless. Going to collect this whole 1,999 in premiums. And then on Monday, I'll have this 74 grand in cash to go ahead and allocate some leaps on this stock. So, I think I'm going to go ahead and do the LEAPS or to be a safer play, right, I might go to um earnings week October 31st and just grab the 720 or the 730 puts, which are paying out a potential 3.4 to 3.9% ROI on Meta. Okay, results vary there.
But if you enjoyed this video, if you enjoyed this update, make sure to hit the thumbs up button, and I'll see you in the next one.