Transcription
[music] All right, welcome everyone into our weekend market talk. Today we have our special guests, Cantonese Cat and Matt. How are you guys?
Doing well. We're here. We're here for you. You're you're you're the greatest host of all time. So, we're going to, you know, just let you take the lead and uh please tell us if you have any anything you want to ask us. But you have so we're very interested in hearing your thoughts in terms of what's happening right now with the markets.
Yeah, the trio is back. We only gather in times of volatility, in times of fear, and in times of anxiety. When people are prone to sell, to, you know, to be anxious about their holdings, that's when we gather. We don't really have our collaborations in times of, you know, euphoria and or in times of uh when the markets are doing well. That's kind of our thing.
So today we're going to talk about what happened with crypto and the markets um last week because we had a pretty big crash on Friday especially. And I mean um nobody really knows what really caused it, right? There are some theories. What do you guys think have been the the main factors that led to that crash on Friday?
Uh for me I I just think that things got overextended into the uh like the regular indices, right? So it's just things hit resistance and it was an options Friday and that's easiest time to just cause fear and panic and thing take things down back to a high time frame support zone.
Yeah. If you want to, yeah, if you want to look at my um I kind of posted something along the line about two weeks ago on the on the two week, this is from like May 26. This is like the two week chart. Um and you can see that we're kind of way overextended about the Ballinger Japan. I'm always going to go to technicals because I think this is a bull trend. I think this is something that um is probably going to keep going, but it's not going to go up in a straight line. You have to put it into context that the uh QQQ has gone from really the mid 500s all the way up to the uh 700s, you know, really within a period of really just two months or three two two and a half months or so, which is an incredible move that just made is way overextended and we needed to cool off and we just got it. um you know, because if you look at the QQQ now we're no longer overextended above the um above the bulling band anymore you know we're we're just right there we touched it so this is healthy as far as I'm concerned um as far as the indexes are concerned even though we're just down for like 5% which sounds dramatic but is really not given the you know what what has really kind of happened over the last two and a half months. So [laughter] that that's kind of my thoughts. So yeah, let's let's share your screen again, Luca. I want to hear your thoughts.
Yeah, I mean uh you're definitely right on that. I think, you know, things got a bit overextended. We essentially had a straight impulse up since uh the end of March. So here from 30th of March, we had pretty much a straight impulse up. No corrections. This is the first major correction we're seeing. And now the price is nearing support. So both the two-day bull market support band which has been a strong resistance earlier this year which also aligns with the support range between the 0.236 and 0.382 Fibonacci POIs where I believe that a local bottom is likely to form. So something similar to this this initial correction. Maybe we have this wave B before a final wave C correction deeper into this support range before a continuation higher. But I think that having a liquidity shake out like this, having a liquidity flush after such a strong impulse up is really not something that we have to worry about. It's completely normal after such a big move to the upside. This has been essentially the biggest rally we've had in many years. Such a an aggressive rally rather without any single pullback. So those are kind of my thoughts.
But a lot of people are not worried about the equity markets. A lot of people are currently worried about the crypto market. Why has not has the crypto market not rallied over the last couple of weeks? Why has the crypto market underperformed so much? Why has the crypto market decoupled from the equity markets? And I would like to to hear your thoughts on this uh before I share mine.
Go ahead, Cat. Share us yours first.
Yeah, I'll share mine if you share yours. Um you want to go and flip over to my screen. I'm just going to show you. Um the top here is the Russell 2000 which generally I like to gauge the overall stock market not by the large caps because there's a lot of passive buying and it generally just kind of keeps going up to the right over time with you know with some volatility but not that much volatility compared to the small caps that are going to be a lot more reflective in terms of what's actually going on with the overall market in general in terms of what the underlying liquidity is in in the stock market. Um and whenever you have some economically, you know, sensitive events or some um economically uh sensitive, you know, liquidity issues, it's going to show up in the small caps a lot faster than the large cap. So IWM monthly chart on top, Bitcoin at the bottom. And right off the bat, you can already see that Bitcoin has outperformed IWM for about two years. You can already see that Bitcoin has really outperformed. it has bottomed around um November 2022 and it's uh since then it's just been on beast mode all the way up until um really late last year. Um that's been a huge move that has made whereas the IWM the stock market has really just had a hard time really trying to break above all-time high here. It got to November 2024, everybody got really euphoric about the Trump narrative. Hey, you know, we got a stock pro market president going to go up to the moon. Next thing you know, we have a huge um liquidation event. Um all the al all of a sudden went over back back down to April. Bitcoin held relatively well at that period of time. It only went down very very little during that period of time and it actually led the recovery at that time. And this whole event right here when MSTR was going bullistic when stocks were just suffering a lot and they weren't doing anything for a long time especially small caps it had really got a lot of people rotating into Bitcoin. A lot of people ended up buying like you know MSTR MSTX which is like the 2x you know leverage version of MSTR. A lot of people end up also um getting into you know like Meta Planet around this time. Um and it's just gotten to the point where the sentiment was don't buy stocks, buy Bitcoin. And uh we see how it had worked out since then, right? Bitcoin well um basically money had rotated away from Bitcoin into stocks. Stocks is making all-time highs including especially small caps whereas Bitcoin is going through a period of correction. How how far has Bitcoin corrected? To be honest, it's not that bad compared to the overall um history of Bitcoin in general, but I think it's bad for a lot of people because it's slow and because stocks are doing better. If you take it into overall consideration in terms of the correction of Bitcoin right now is nothing. You you're worried about you know like overall liquidity crunch? Not really, right? Because stocks are doing extremely well. Bitcoin has gone down around 53%. over the last eight months. This is a joke for a correction, right? You're talking about the the true bare market correction of like 80%. You're talking about a correction that happened here during the end of this, you know, bull market that was still going that corrected around 55%. The current correction is even less than this correction right here. I think it's just been brutal because of how long it has lasted and because everything else is going up. You'd talk about beginning of this bull trend over here. The correction over here from this peak to that lower there was 72%. This correction is really nothing. And as far as I'm concerned, it could it depends on your definition. It can even be a little bit of a correction in a greater bull market or you can say that this is a bare market if you just basically count you know Bitcoin more than 50%. Depending on your criteria, some to me it doesn't really matter. on top of that is also basically just revisiting this liquidity zone over here that's been hitting for the last five years. This is kind of how I see it. Um, go ahead. I think I talked too long already.
No, but that's why that's why the bears say things are going to keep going down because it's only down 50% though, right? So that's their argument.
It it would be true. I think I would be a lot more scared if this is like an overall liquidity crunch if stocks are also going down at the same time. Um, I think I would be a lot more scared, but they're not. If the Japanese market is going down at the same time, Korean market is going down at the same time, I would be a lot more scared. But the very fact is if I mean I I can talk about the technical bitcoins, but this is kind of how I wanted to just, you know, kind of end my thoughts in terms of what's uh why there's decoupling is because there has been decoupling ever since 2022.
Yeah. All right. I'll share my thoughts real quick and then we'll switch it back to Luca. And from what I see, uh the why is the weakness in crypto still because it can't break resistance. And we talked about this last month. Um I posted many posts on X uh last month saying we are still stuck under the 82,000 zone that basically is the green line of the bull market support band that of the monthly chart that is the 21week EMA. So we're still stuck under resistance. we still can't break anything in the higher time frame which means if it can't break resistance then often more liquidity lower is needed before it breaks out again. So that's basically the simple explanation in my opinion that we're not going higher in crypto yet because nothing is really breaking resistance except for a select few out there like your hype or whatever, right? So, we're just waiting for that transition to come into effect. Like, we saw it coming into effect back in 2023 where it started to break above the averages and then it just got acceleration to the upside. So, once that happens, we can probably get acceleration to the upside. But until then, we're likely to keep testing some lows. And when we put on a fib here, I got this 2018 or 2017 top and the 2018 bottom. And what is it doing? It's back testing the 1.618 618 log scale 1 10320 which was the 2021 top and it was the breakout and the back test and essentially what I think we're doing right now is similar to what we did back in 2022 right we broke out went to the 1.618 618 came back and back tested the previous all-time high. That's exactly what we're doing now. Breaking out, back testing the previous all-time high. Now, the question remains is are we going to go do this little thing that we saw in 2022, right? Where it got the liquidity below the previous all-time highs a little bit. I think it was even down like 20% below that level or so. So, if we went like 20% below that, that would be into the 40,000s, right? So, we'll see if that is necessary. But I think the key thing to that is the 50-month moving average. Right? Right now, we're still holding that as support. And before that little collapse and that flush back in 20122, we already flipped that 50-month moving average to a resistance. Uh that's why it went lower. We're still holding on to that. So, I think this will be the deciding factor if we need more liquidity lower or not. That's at 59323. And it finally touched finally touched the first touch since 2023. So I think that is more of a bullish scenario. It reminds me more of like during CO or even back down in way before that back in 2015 how it was just kind of riding the 50-month moving average there before higher. So that is really our trend right now and as long as that holds the trend is our friend but we're just not ready to break that 80,000 resistance yet. So I think it just needs a little bit more patience. But we are in accumulation is what I see right. I see very similar patterns to this period of 2022 which was accumulation and I think we're experiencing that too. The question remains do we need this little flush lower or not? And so far we're holding that 50-month moving average and I don't think we do just yet. Luca.
Yeah. So the way I see it is really something that uh happened with gold last year. If we remember what happened with gold last year, if we think about the everybody standing outside of exchanges to to buy gold physically, there were 500 m, 700 m uh lines. There were lines of 700 meters or so outside of those exchanges with people waiting to buy physical gold because they were chasing gold. That was last year and that was when gold was outperforming both the crypto market as well as equities. And back then I remember we had a collaboration where we said that gold is becoming overextended and that gold is likely going to have a distribution and is likely going to cool off to have a high time frame top formation. And in that high time frame top formation, retail is going to buy in while institutional investors are starting to secure profits. And since then, we've seen gold coming down relative to the S&P 500. The reason why that is is because liquidity has flowed away from gold into traditional equities which were undervalued at the time. And I think that the same thing is happening right now with crypto. As equities are outperforming crypto, we were having a lot of fear in the crypto market. A lot of retail investors in particular selling their bitcoin assets and worrying about narratives about you know micro strategy selling 32 bitcoins and things like that which are completely insignificant compared to the broader picture. Meanwhile, if we look at the onchain data which is uh objective and we can track how the perpetual markets are moving. Here we have the price action. Here we have the open interest which measures the total amount of perpetual positions. And here we have funding rates which measure the ratio between longs and shorts. So while the price has been going down, we've seen the open interest going up and forming higher lows and higher highs. The reason why that is is because there have been more perpetual positions that have piled in. By tracking only the open interest, we cannot really understand whether these are shorts or whether they are longs piled in. But this is where funding rates come into play because funding rates have been forming lower highs. And so now funding rates are nearing negative territories and have actually tapped into negative territories on the 4hour time frame. That means there are more shorts right now than longs. And that also means that these are shorts that have piled in and not longs doubling down in order to avoid liquidations because that's the alternative scenario. So this means bears are now chasing a breakdown and are chasing the downtrend and late bears are starting to come to the party. If we look at the price action and the overall market structure on the low time frames, we see that the lows from February got swept. The price swept these lows, had a brief deviation below them, and now it seems like the price is bouncing. And this is a typical liquidity trap especially for traders or people who use leverage because by flushing these the stop- losses of uh long positions here because generally what happens traders set their stop loss at the nearest low. So whenever there's a potential of a reversal to the upside, we have brief deviations like this to sweep off the stop losses here and then we have the reversal to the upside. So longs are not invested anymore and potentially even got uh you know liquidated. Bears are also chasing a breakdown here with their entry sitting right below the low because if the price were to break below it, that would open the door for a deeper pullback. So bears are also sitting there with their entries while bulls are sitting there with their stop- losses. That's kind of why we see these liquidity traps. And if we correlate it with the onchain data I showed you earlier, then we have a full picture that while we had the deviation below the lows, we also had a lot of shorts that have piled in throughout this downtrend. And so the chances of a relief rally at least on the midterm right now are very high. So in the next couple of days, next week, I think that tracking the objective market structure and seeing whether the price can manage to reclaim this lost high time frame support range at 64 $65,000 is the best approach. Caution remains the best approach also on the low time frames because even though there are bullish confluences that have developed until the market structure can confirm that the bottom is in and that uh from here on out we're going to see a reversal. The best approach is to remain somewhat cautious and expect further consolidation. And if this plays out, if the price can manage to reclaim 64 $65,000, this could end up being a double bottoming formation that precedes a larger reversal to the upside. And of course, as I've said earlier, if we see a distribution happening from equities that have rallied and uh liquidity rotation from equities into crypto that is also going to fuel this uh reversal. So these are kind of my thoughts right now on the low time frames. And I'm uh also wondering what what do you guys think about the decoupling crypto has had from the equity markets and um why do you think that has happened over last couple of months?
Matt, you want to go first?
Uh sure. Yeah. What what I really think is happening is just capital rotation is not ready yet. I think there money is going into AI money is just going into all the stuff that has momentum and right now uh crypto is lagging. There is no momentum in crypto and there hasn't been any momentum for months and months and months, right? Even since October of last year. So perhaps like maybe one idea could be maybe they're just uh building out the AI infrastructure first before crypto gets involved or uh maybe they just uh have some sort of plan for crypto later on to uh pump later. Maybe uh like we were talking earlier, maybe we're one Trump tweet away from something going up, but it just hasn't happened yet. So I think it's just a normal lagging uh sentiment right now, kind of like what the Bitcoin miners experienced last year. And I think uh because of that uh it's just getting everybody one-sided into being bearish into crypto just like everybody was one-sided into being bearish in the Bitcoin miners of like Q1 of last year until the massive rally. So uh because of that I think most people missed the massive rally in the crypto miners the Bitcoin miners uh and now they just went parabolic recently and uh I think the same thing can happen to crypto but it's just taking a very very long time. It's taking way longer than anybody would have thought anybody would have thought and I think eventually the rotation will happen and we're seeing correlation with money coming out of and it can it can eventually rotate into the crypto markets but I think in the meantime it's just a lagard. So until things start to break resistance it's probably going to be ignored.
Yeah, it's been taking a lot longer. I mean, a lot of people follow the four-year cycle narrative. Um, honestly, the 2025 was supposed to be a great year for crypto overall, right? Uh, that did not turn out to be the case. And I think that's just um evidence that I think we're stuck in accumulation range for a lot longer and that the capital rotation just simply hasn't really gotten into it. But a lot of people still holding on to the four-year cycle when they're talking about Bitcoin, you know, and it's like a Bitcoin specific kind of thing. Even though the four-year cycle has also kind of worked up for stocks as well. IWM actually has gone through a lot of fourear cycles over the last decade, decade and a half. But anyway, um to debate that point, I just want to show I posted this earlier today on X to basically show you we the last time where everything kind of went up together, went down together was around 2020 to 2022 and the market was really dead in 2022. went down in a straight line due to global liquidity crunch because yields were you know spiking up rates were going high liquidity is being sucked out in you know from the system not just in the US but internationally because of concerns for inflation but since then we really haven't had that issue and since then it's just been one market leader after another just been kind of going from one thing to another and to kind of summarize and this is like oversimplification the market leader or the champions if will around 2023 2024 was like an Nvidia MSTR. A lot of people forget how brutal it has been for these stocks around 2022. They're absolutely brutal. Nvidia went down like 80%. MSTR went down even more. Um and then they just basically recovered first. The second wave was in 2024 2025 when Poundier and certain you know fintech stocks like Robin Hood was doing extremely well. And then you have the gold and silver pump that really end up just going very parabolically around 2025 2026. So far in mid 2026 it's been small cap AI and semiconductor plays. Um it could go on for longer. It can keep going on for months. Um but it just simply hasn't really been the narrative just simply really hasn't been crypto even during the supposedly most euphoric time of the four-year cycle um which was would have been around 200. um 25 is just never really happened. It never really materialized and it's just getting pushed back further which you would expect because what why would anything would follow a straight calendar year anyway that's to be debatable. I I'm I'm I'm I'm not going to you know say anything more about that. All I'm saying is that in a normal market structure when liquidity is going in but it's not so much to the point that it's able to pump everything up things go through rotation and it's been going it's been doing it for the last four or five years right um I don't really and if you're talking about gold I can also show like this chart here and I've had this chart done really since uh about four or five months ago when I really bottling against gold. See,
you guys still hear me? Okay.
I think you were you were you were cutting your
Okay,
just just start over on this that you have. Yeah.
Yeah. Sorry about that. So, about four months ago, I came up with this chart here, which is the NASDAQ over gold. Um, and I at that point I was really thinking, hey, Google is really getting euphoric here and I think we're getting through the point where there it's probably going to be a rotation to NASDAQ, right? Uh, a few months later that worked out extremely well. NASDAQ shot up a lot higher and gold has really done nothing except for just kind of, you know, showing a lot of technical weakness here. So as far as I'm concerned, this structure has happened over and over again and uh throughout different cycles and whenever you have gold kind of toppy that usually would signal a bit more rotation um cycle into more risk on and in particular in this case it seems to be going to the NASDAQ first which is fine. Basically going through what it needs to go through in terms of cycles, right? If you're asking about the specific technicals for Bitcoin, I'm just going to go through the the technicals for uh the anatomy of the technicals, I should I should say, of what happened during the stock market crash of 2022. This is S&P 500 on the right. And you can see that it's been viciously going down over here. You got a little bit of like a little bit of false pump where you pump over the 20week moving uh moving average. Everybody was like, "Hey, we're back. We're back." Next thing you know, you just have another look down. And it basically had multiple capitulation events with, you know, pretty decent volume here. And this is like the last flush kind of capitulation, right? You have some increased volume here is not as big as over there. That really was the big capitulation over there for the S&P 500 back in around June, right? When um Jamie Diamond came out and saying that we're in an economic hurricane, right? That really was the the the flush right there. The lower the slight lower low over there was the deceleration of this downtrend and it was a double tap of the Ballinger band and you have the final capitulation of the final weekends and next thing you know S&P 500 just kind of went up a lot higher after that right during this process you have you know if you want to look at RSI fine you know you can just basically eyeball you can you can kind of eyeball that the the deceleration uh or or the downtrend has been decelerated you can just eyeball that you don't really need RSI to help you if you do the RSI is there is flipping you know in is increasing over here telling you that this downtrend has decelerated right and that's kind of a lot of times what happens before you're able to really truly have like a good solid foundation for bottoming here Bitcoin we basically have very very similar structure very similar morphology where you have huge downtrend over here but it's been decelerated recently because of this move up that we've just had for the last few months this actually has allowed allowed us even if we're going down for like 30 or 40% here, we're very vicious drop over here. This has allowed the whole downtrend to be decelerated and this is also happening on some pretty decent volume over here too. Not as much as we did over here. So the anatomy of these two crashes are very very similar. You're touching low bing band which generally can serve as support because apparently things don't want to go up too far away from the center deviations. On top of that, you're also seeing the the same thing with bullish divergence here on RSI. Am I am I saying that we're bottom? I don't know because even over here it touched the low intrend and it still make a little bit of slight lower low. I can never say that we're 100% bottom. I think we probably have but we we don't know this. There might still be some liquidity to be grabbed underneath. I can't say that 100%. Technical analysis is more just probabilistic rather than deterministic anyway. But the anatomy of these two crashes are the same. I would argue that the reason why we still have another shakeddown was because this downtrend was just so vicious. we needed to have some technical resets to really get that thing going. That's kind of what I'm seeing here. And then final um shot that I'm going to show here is, you know, you can look at RSI all you want, but you can just basically eyeball and you can see how strong the bull trend has been right over here. Bull trend is getting strong, parabolic, getting exhausted, crash, right? Crash happened quick and next thing you know, deceleration bottom up again, right? Same thing here. Slow to get going. A little bit more parabolic here. Uh trend exhaustion going for about two years. Getting everybody feeling safe about Bitcoin, including myself. Next thing you know, trend exhausted, downtrend. And guess what? Deceleration or downtrend. The anatomy of crashes and pumps, markup phases and markdown phases, uh they're never 100%, but I I just find these kind of similarities to be pretty glaring to me at this moment. So, all right.
And if you go back to your if you go back to your Ballinger band chart, too.
Yeah.
Uh, it's actually contracting now, too. Instead of the bottom band, it's not going down anymore. Yeah.
exactly. So, whenever you have a contraction of Ballinger band, it can serve as some pretty decent support kind of like it did over here,
you know, it still made a little bit of a slight lower low, you know, but it it served as some pretty decent support here. Kind of like over here. It served as some pretty decent support. it still made a little slight lower low but here I think we've already kind of tapped it you know twice here with some pretty decent capitulation you can also argue that you have some capitulation event over here right into a contracting bulling band and that's going to serve as support here at least in the short term so
yeah and I I actually want to show just the MSTR chart uh that kind of goes along with Bitcoin too
and uh essentially I want just relate this monthly cloud that we're seeing for the MSTR chart right here to what we saw back in 2022, right? We saw basically price tried to bottom starting in May of 2022, but then 9 months later it went down to the same level. And now we are basically five months in and we still haven't even touched the cloud once. But we're getting there. But this is actually a good thing because that kind of marked the bottom back in 2022 touching the monthly Ichimoku cloud. It started the bottoming process. Yes. Nine months later, it still was in that process, but uh it was all part of the same process. So, we are experiencing that now. And also, the 618 fib is from the all-time high to the 2020 low of CO and that's still holding too, which that was the previous resistance zone back in February of 2021. And now that's a previous resistance also flipping to support. So, I think MSTR has given a lot of confluence that it's doing something similar what it did back in 2022. And I don't I mean maybe it can go to the 111 110 maybe even back to the low 100s again to retest that but usually MSTR kind of like has been front running up and down Bitcoin. And if it's front running Bitcoin then it's probably telling us that this is all part of the bottoming process. And MSTR didn't even make an attempt of a lower low yet. And Bitcoin kind of did already. So the lower the low back in February was 104 on a week- toeek basis. I think after hours or pre-market it went down to the low 100s or even the 90s or something but on a month-to-month basis that was the low and our low this month so far is only 114. So we have not made a lower low attempt. We have not even touched the monthly cloud. So yes we could go down a little bit deeper but I think this is telling a story that all the past five months is part of the same bottoming process that we saw basically back in 2022. And I don't think that's uh we should be bearish in that zone. It looks like accumulation to me. Looks like previous resistance flipping to support. So I'm more inclined to be more optimistic in this zone than bearish.
So you're saying that there is an MSTR Bitcoin divergence because looking at the top right there, you also had the same divergence too recently, you know, where Bitcoin had uh just kept going until October of 20 25. But MSDR failed to make a higher high there, you know, in Yeah, it failed to make a higher high there. So, um there's a divergence there. 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[music] All right, welcome everyone into our weekend market talk. Today we have our special guests, Cantonese Cat and Matt. How are you guys?
Doing well. We're here. We're here for you. You're you're you're the greatest host of all time. So, we're going to, you know, just let you take the lead and uh please tell us if you have any anything you want to ask us. But you have so we're very interested in hearing your thoughts in terms of what's happening right now with the markets.
Yeah, the trio is back. We only gather in times of volatility, in times of fear, and in times of anxiety. When people are prone to sell, to, you know, to be anxious about their holdings, that's when we gather. We don't really have our collaborations in times of, you know, euphoria and or in times of uh when the markets are doing well. That's kind of our thing.
So today we're going to talk about what happened with crypto and the markets um last week because we had a pretty big crash on Friday especially. And I mean um nobody really knows what really caused it, right? There are some theories. What do you guys think have been the the main factors that led to that crash on Friday?
Uh for me I I just think that things got overextended into the uh like the regular indices, right? So it's just things hit resistance and it was an options Friday and that's easiest time to just cause fear and panic and thing take things down back to a high time frame support zone.
Yeah. If you want to, yeah, if you want to look at my um I kind of posted something along the line about two weeks ago on the on the two week, this is from like May 26. This is like the two week chart. Um and you can see that we're kind of way overextended about the Ballinger Japan. I'm always going to go to technicals because I think this is a bull trend. I think this is something that um is probably going to keep going, but it's not going to go up in a straight line. You have to put it into context that the uh QQQ has gone from really the mid 500s all the way up to the uh 700s, you know, really within a period of really just two months or three two two and a half months or so, which is an incredible move that just made is way overextended and we needed to cool off and we just got it. um you know, because if you look at the QQQ now we're no longer overextended above the um above the bulling band anymore you know we're we're just right there we touched it so this is healthy as far as I'm concerned um as far as the indexes are concerned even though we're just down for like 5% which sounds dramatic but is really not given the you know what what has really kind of happened over the last two and a half months. So [laughter] that that's kind of my thoughts. So yeah, let's let's share your screen again, Luca. I want to hear your thoughts.
Yeah, I mean uh you're definitely right on that. I think, you know, things got a bit overextended. We essentially had a straight impulse up since uh the end of March. So here from 30th of March, we had pretty much a straight impulse up. No corrections. This is the first major correction we're seeing. And now the price is nearing support. So both the two-day bull market support band which has been a strong resistance earlier this year which also aligns with the support range between the 0.236 and 0.382 Fibonacci POIs where I believe that a local bottom is likely to form. So something similar to this this initial correction. Maybe we have this wave B before a final wave C correction deeper into this support range before a continuation higher. But I think that having a liquidity shake out like this, having a liquidity flush after such a strong impulse up is really not something that we have to worry about. It's completely normal after such a big move to the upside. This has been essentially the biggest rally we've had in many years. Such a an aggressive rally rather without any single pullback. So those are kind of my thoughts.
But a lot of people are not worried about the equity markets. A lot of people are currently worried about the crypto market. Why has not has the crypto market not rallied over the last couple of weeks? Why has the crypto market underperformed so much? Why has the crypto market decoupled from the equity markets? And I would like to to hear your thoughts on this uh before I share mine.
Go ahead, Cat. Share us yours first.
Yeah, I'll share mine if you share yours. Um you want to go and flip over to my screen. I'm just going to show you. Um the top here is the Russell 2000 which generally I like to gauge the overall stock market not by the large caps because there's a lot of passive buying and it generally just kind of keeps going up to the right over time with you know with some volatility but not that much volatility compared to the small caps that are going to be a lot more reflective in terms of what's actually going on with the overall market in general in terms of what the underlying liquidity is in in the stock market. Um and whenever you have some economically, you know, sensitive events or some um economically uh sensitive, you know, liquidity issues, it's going to show up in the small caps a lot faster than the large cap. So IWM monthly chart on top, Bitcoin at the bottom. And right off the bat, you can already see that Bitcoin has outperformed IWM for about two years. You can already see that Bitcoin has really outperformed. it has bottomed around um November 2022 and it's uh since then it's just been on beast mode all the way up until um really late last year. Um that's been a huge move that has made whereas the IWM the stock market has really just had a hard time really trying to break above all-time high here. It got to November 2024, everybody got really euphoric about the Trump narrative. Hey, you know, we got a stock pro market president going to go up to the moon. Next thing you know, we have a huge um liquidation event. Um all the al all of a sudden went over back back down to April. Bitcoin held relatively well at that period of time. It only went down very very little during that period of time and it actually led the recovery at that time. And this whole event right here when MSTR was going bullistic when stocks were just suffering a lot and they weren't doing anything for a long time especially small caps it had really got a lot of people rotating into Bitcoin. A lot of people ended up buying like you know MSTR MSTX which is like the 2x you know leverage version of MSTR. A lot of people end up also um getting into you know like Meta Planet around this time. Um and it's just gotten to the point where the sentiment was don't buy stocks, buy Bitcoin. And uh we see how it had worked out since then, right? Bitcoin well um basically money had rotated away from Bitcoin into stocks. Stocks is making all-time highs including especially small caps whereas Bitcoin is going through a period of correction. How how far has Bitcoin corrected? To be honest, it's not that bad compared to the overall um history of Bitcoin in general, but I think it's bad for a lot of people because it's slow and because stocks are doing better. If you take it into overall consideration in terms of the correction of Bitcoin right now is nothing. You you're worried about you know like overall liquidity crunch? Not really, right? Because stocks are doing extremely well. Bitcoin has gone down around 53%. over the last eight months. This is a joke for a correction, right? You're talking about the the true bare market correction of like 80%. You're talking about a correction that happened here during the end of this, you know, bull market that was still going that corrected around 55%. The current correction is even less than this correction right here. I think it's just been brutal because of how long it has lasted and because everything else is going up. You'd talk about beginning of this bull trend over here. The correction over here from this peak to that lower there was 72%. This correction is really nothing. And as far as I'm concerned, it could it depends on your definition. It can even be a little bit of a correction in a greater bull market or you can say that this is a bare market if you just basically count you know Bitcoin more than 50%. Depending on your criteria, some to me it doesn't really matter. on top of that is also basically just revisiting this liquidity zone over here that's been hitting for the last five years. This is kind of how I see it. Um, go ahead. I think I talked too long already.
No, but that's why that's why the bears say things are going to keep going down because it's only down 50% though, right? So that's their argument.
It it would be true. I think I would be a lot more scared if this is like an overall liquidity crunch if stocks are also going down at the same time. Um, I think I would be a lot more scared, but they're not. If the Japanese market is going down at the same time, Korean market is going down at the same time, I would be a lot more scared. But the very fact is if I mean I I can talk about the technical bitcoins, but this is kind of how I wanted to just, you know, kind of end my thoughts in terms of what's uh why there's decoupling is because there has been decoupling ever since 2022.
Yeah. All right. I'll share my thoughts real quick and then we'll switch it back to Luca. And from what I see, uh the why is the weakness in crypto still because it can't break resistance. And we talked about this last month. Um I posted many posts on X uh last month saying we are still stuck under the 82,000 zone that basically is the green line of the bull market support band that of the monthly chart that is the 21week EMA. So we're still stuck under resistance. we still can't break anything in the higher time frame which means if it can't break resistance then often more liquidity lower is needed before it breaks out again. So that's basically the simple explanation in my opinion that we're not going higher in crypto yet because nothing is really breaking resistance except for a select few out there like your hype or whatever, right? So, we're just waiting for that transition to come into effect. Like, we saw it coming into effect back in 2023 where it started to break above the averages and then it just got acceleration to the upside. So, once that happens, we can probably get acceleration to the upside. But until then, we're likely to keep testing some lows. And when we put on a fib here, I got this 2018 or 2017 top and the 2018 bottom. And what is it doing? It's back testing the 1.618 618 log scale 1 10320 which was the 2021 top and it was the breakout and the back test and essentially what I think we're doing right now is similar to what we did back in 2022 right we broke out went to the 1.618 618 came back and back tested the previous all-time high. That's exactly what we're doing now. Breaking out, back testing the previous all-time high. Now, the question remains is are we going to go do this little thing that we saw in 2022, right? Where it got the liquidity below the previous all-time highs a little bit. I think it was even down like 20% below that level or so. So, if we went like 20% below that, that would be into the 40,000s, right? So, we'll see if that is necessary. But I think the key thing to that is the 50-month moving average. Right? Right now, we're still holding that as support. And before that little collapse and that flush back in 20122, we already flipped that 50-month moving average to a resistance. Uh that's why it went lower. We're still holding on to that. So, I think this will be the deciding factor if we need more liquidity lower or not. That's at 59323. And it finally touched finally touched the first touch since 2023. So I think that is more of a bullish scenario. It reminds me more of like during CO or even back down in way before that back in 2015 how it was just kind of riding the 50-month moving average there before higher. So that is really our trend right now and as long as that holds the trend is our friend but we're just not ready to break that 80,000 resistance yet. So I think it just needs a little bit more patience. But we are in accumulation is what I see right. I see very similar patterns to this period of 2022 which was accumulation and I think we're experiencing that too. The question remains do we need this little flush lower or not? And so far we're holding that 50-month moving average and I don't think we do just yet. Luca.
Yeah. So the way I see it is really something that uh happened with gold last year. If we remember what happened with gold last year, if we think about the everybody standing outside of exchanges to to buy gold physically, there were 500 m, 700 m uh lines. There were lines of 700 meters or so outside of those exchanges with people waiting to buy physical gold because they were chasing gold. That was last year and that was when gold was outperforming both the crypto market as well as equities. And back then I remember we had a collaboration where we said that gold is becoming overextended and that gold is likely going to have a distribution and is likely going to cool off to have a high time frame top formation. And in that high time frame top formation, retail is going to buy in while institutional investors are starting to secure profits. And since then, we've seen gold coming down relative to the S&P 500. The reason why that is is because liquidity has flowed away from gold into traditional equities which were undervalued at the time. And I think that the same thing is happening right now with crypto. As equities are outperforming crypto, we were having a lot of fear in the crypto market. A lot of retail investors in particular selling their bitcoin assets and worrying about narratives about you know micro strategy selling 32 bitcoins and things like that which are completely insignificant compared to the broader picture. Meanwhile, if we look at the onchain data which is uh objective and we can track how the perpetual markets are moving. Here we have the price action. Here we have the open interest which measures the total amount of perpetual positions. And here we have funding rates which measure the ratio between longs and shorts. So while the price has been going down, we've seen the open interest going up and forming higher lows and higher highs. The reason why that is is because there have been more perpetual positions that have piled in. By tracking only the open interest, we cannot really understand whether these are shorts or whether they are longs piled in. But this is where funding rates come into play because funding rates have been forming lower highs. And so now funding rates are nearing negative territories and have actually tapped into negative territories on the 4hour time frame. That means there are more shorts right now than longs. And that also means that these are shorts that have piled in and not longs doubling down in order to avoid liquidations because that's the alternative scenario. So this means bears are now chasing a breakdown and are chasing the downtrend and late bears are starting to come to the party. If we look at the price action and the overall market structure on the low time frames, we see that the lows from February got swept. The price swept these lows, had a brief deviation below them, and now it seems like the price is bouncing. And this is a typical liquidity trap especially for traders or people who use leverage because by flushing these the stop- losses of uh long positions here because generally what happens traders set their stop loss at the nearest low. So whenever there's a potential of a reversal to the upside, we have brief deviations like this to sweep off the stop losses here and then we have the reversal to the upside. So longs are not invested anymore and potentially even got uh you know liquidated. Bears are also chasing a breakdown here with their entry sitting right below the low because if the price were to break below it, that would open the door for a deeper pullback. So bears are also sitting there with their entries while bulls are sitting there with their stop- losses. That's kind of why we see these liquidity traps. And if we correlate it with the onchain data I showed you earlier, then we have a full picture that while we had the deviation below the lows, we also had a lot of shorts that have piled in throughout this downtrend. And so the chances of a relief rally at least on the midterm right now are very high. So in the next couple of days, next week, I think that tracking the objective market structure and seeing whether the price can manage to reclaim this lost high time frame support range at 64 $65,000 is the best approach. Caution remains the best approach also on the low time frames because even though there are bullish confluences that have developed until the market structure can confirm that the bottom is in and that uh from here on out we're going to see a reversal. The best approach is to remain somewhat cautious and expect further consolidation. And if this plays out, if the price can manage to reclaim 64 $65,000, this could end up being a double bottoming formation that precedes a larger reversal to the upside. And of course, as I've said earlier, if we see a distribution happening from equities that have rallied and uh liquidity rotation from equities into crypto that is also going to fuel this uh reversal. So these are kind of my thoughts right now on the low time frames. And I'm uh also wondering what what do you guys think about the decoupling crypto has had from the equity markets and um why do you think that has happened over last couple of months?
Matt, you want to go first?
Uh sure. Yeah. What what I really think is happening is just capital rotation is not ready yet. I think there money is going into AI money is just going into all the stuff that has momentum and right now uh crypto is lagging. There is no momentum in crypto and there hasn't been any momentum for months and months and months, right? Even since October of last year. So perhaps like maybe one idea could be maybe they're just uh building out the AI infrastructure first before crypto gets involved or uh maybe they just uh have some sort of plan for crypto later on to uh pump later. Maybe uh like we were talking earlier, maybe we're one Trump tweet away from something going up, but it just hasn't happened yet. So I think it's just a normal lagging uh sentiment right now, kind of like what the Bitcoin miners experienced last year. And I think uh because of that uh it's just getting everybody one-sided into being bearish into crypto just like everybody was one-sided into being bearish in the Bitcoin miners of like Q1 of last year until the massive rally. So uh because of that I think most people missed the massive rally in the crypto miners the Bitcoin miners uh and now they just went parabolic recently and uh I think the same thing can happen to crypto but it's just taking a very very long time. It's taking way longer than anybody would have thought anybody would have thought and I think eventually the rotation will happen and we're seeing correlation with money coming out of and it can it can eventually rotate into the crypto markets but I think in the meantime it's just a lagard. So until things start to break resistance it's probably going to be ignored.
Yeah, it's been taking a lot longer. I mean, a lot of people follow the four-year cycle narrative. Um, honestly, the 2025 was supposed to be a great year for crypto overall, right? Uh, that did not turn out to be the case. And I think that's just um evidence that I think we're stuck in accumulation range for a lot longer and that the capital rotation just simply hasn't really gotten into it. But a lot of people still holding on to the four-year cycle when they're talking about Bitcoin, you know, and it's like a Bitcoin specific kind of thing. Even though the four-year cycle has also kind of worked up for stocks as well. IWM actually has gone through a lot of fourear cycles over the last decade, decade and a half. But anyway, um to debate that point, I just want to show I posted this earlier today on X to basically show you we the last time where everything kind of went up together, went down together was around 2020 to 2022 and the market was really dead in 2022. went down in a straight line due to global liquidity crunch because yields were you know spiking up rates were going high liquidity is being sucked out in you know from the system not just in the US but internationally because of concerns for inflation but since then we really haven't had that issue and since then it's just been one market leader after another just been kind of going from one thing to another and to kind of summarize and this is like oversimplification the market leader or the champions if will around 2023 2024 was like an Nvidia MSTR. A lot of people forget how brutal it has been for these stocks around 2022. They're absolutely brutal. Nvidia went down like 80%. MSTR went down even more. Um and then they just basically recovered first. The second wave was in 2024 2025 when Poundier and certain you know fintech stocks like Robin Hood was doing extremely well. And then you have the gold and silver pump that really end up just going very parabolically around 2025 2026. So far in mid 2026 it's been small cap AI and semiconductor plays. Um it could go on for longer. It can keep going on for months. Um but it just simply hasn't really been the narrative just simply really hasn't been crypto even during the supposedly most euphoric time of the four-year cycle um which was would have been around 200. um 25 is just never really happened. It never really materialized and it's just getting pushed back further which you would expect because what why would anything would follow a straight calendar year anyway that's to be debatable. I I'm I'm I'm I'm not going to you know say anything more about that. All I'm saying is that in a normal market structure when liquidity is going in but it's not so much to the point that it's able to pump everything up things go through rotation and it's been going it's been doing it for the last four or five years right um I don't really and if you're talking about gold I can also show like this chart here and I've had this chart done really since uh about four or five months ago when I really bottling against gold. See,
you guys still hear me? Okay.
I think you were you were you were cutting your
Okay,
just just start over on this that you have. Yeah.
Yeah. Sorry about that. So, about four months ago, I came up with this chart here, which is the NASDAQ over gold. Um, and I at that point I was really thinking, hey, Google is really getting euphoric here and I think we're getting through the point where there it's probably going to be a rotation to NASDAQ, right? Uh, a few months later that worked out extremely well. NASDAQ shot up a lot higher and gold has really done nothing except for just kind of, you know, showing a lot of technical weakness here. So as far as I'm concerned, this structure has happened over and over again and uh throughout different cycles and whenever you have gold kind of toppy that usually would signal a bit more rotation um cycle into more risk on and in particular in this case it seems to be going to the NASDAQ first which is fine. Basically going through what it needs to go through in terms of cycles, right? If you're asking about the specific technicals for Bitcoin, I'm just going to go through the the technicals for uh the anatomy of the technicals, I should I should say, of what happened during the stock market crash of 2022. This is S&P 500 on the right. And you can see that it's been viciously going down over here. You got a little bit of like a little bit of false pump where you pump over the 20week moving uh moving average. Everybody was like, "Hey, we're back. We're back." Next thing you know, you just have another look down. And it basically had multiple capitulation events with, you know, pretty decent volume here. And this is like the last flush kind of capitulation, right? You have some increased volume here is not as big as over there. That really was the big capitulation over there for the S&P 500 back in around June, right? When um Jamie Diamond came out and saying that we're in an economic hurricane, right? That really was the the the flush right there. The lower the slight lower low over there was the deceleration of this downtrend and it was a double tap of the Ballinger band and you have the final capitulation of the final weekends and next thing you know S&P 500 just kind of went up a lot higher after that right during this process you have you know if you want to look at RSI fine you know you can just basically eyeball you can you can kind of eyeball that the the deceleration uh or or the downtrend has been decelerated you can just eyeball that you don't really need RSI to help you if you do the RSI is there is flipping you know in is increasing over here telling you that this downtrend has decelerated right and that's kind of a lot of times what happens before you're able to really truly have like a good solid foundation for bottoming here Bitcoin we basically have very very similar structure very similar morphology where you have huge downtrend over here but it's been decelerated recently because of this move up that we've just had for the last few months this actually has allowed allowed us even if we're going down for like 30 or 40% here, we're very vicious drop over here. This has allowed the whole downtrend to be decelerated and this is also happening on some pretty decent volume over here too. Not as much as we did over here. So the anatomy of these two crashes are very very similar. You're touching low bing band which generally can serve as support because apparently things don't want to go up too far away from the center deviations. On top of that, you're also seeing the the same thing with bullish divergence here on RSI. Am I am I saying that we're bottom? I don't know because even over here it touched the low intrend and it still make a little bit of slight lower low. I can never say that we're 100% bottom. I think we probably have but we we don't know this. There might still be some liquidity to be grabbed underneath. I can't say that 100%. Technical analysis is more just probabilistic rather than deterministic anyway. But the anatomy of these two crashes are the same. I would argue that the reason why we still have another shakeddown was because this downtrend was just so vicious. we needed to have some technical resets to really get that thing going. That's kind of what I'm seeing here. And then final um shot that I'm going to show here is, you know, you can look at RSI all you want, but you can just basically eyeball and you can see how strong the bull trend has been right over here. Bull trend is getting strong, parabolic, getting exhausted, crash, right? Crash happened quick and next thing you know, deceleration bottom up again, right? Same thing here. Slow to get going. A little bit more parabolic here. Uh trend exhaustion going for about two years. Getting everybody feeling safe about Bitcoin, including myself. Next thing you know, trend exhausted, downtrend. And guess what? Deceleration or downtrend. The anatomy of crashes and pumps, markup phases and markdown phases, uh they're never 100%, but I I just find these kind of similarities to be pretty glaring to me at this moment. So, all right.
And if you go back to your if you go back to your Ballinger band chart, too.
Yeah.
Uh, it's actually contracting now, too. Instead of the bottom band, it's not going down anymore. Yeah.
exactly. So, whenever you have a contraction of Ballinger band, it can serve as some pretty decent support kind of like it did over here,
you know, it still made a little bit of a slight lower low, you know, but it it served as some pretty decent support here. Kind of like over here. It served as some pretty decent support. it still made a little slight lower low but here I think we've already kind of tapped it you know twice here with some pretty decent capitulation you can also argue that you have some capitulation event over here right into a contracting bulling band and that's going to serve as support here at least in the short term so
yeah and I I actually want to show just the MSTR chart uh that kind of goes along with Bitcoin too
and uh essentially I want just relate this monthly cloud that we're seeing for the MSTR chart right here to what we saw back in 2022, right? We saw basically price tried to bottom starting in May of 2022, but then 9 months later it went down to the same level. And now we are basically five months in and we still haven't even touched the cloud once. But we're getting there. But this is actually a good thing because that kind of marked the bottom back in 2022 touching the monthly Ichimoku cloud. It started the bottoming process. Yes. Nine months later, it still was in that process, but uh it was all part of the same process. So, we are experiencing that now. And also, the 618 fib is from the all-time high to the 2020 low of CO and that's still holding too, which that was the previous resistance zone back in February of 2021. And now that's a previous resistance also flipping to support. So, I think MSTR has given a lot of confluence that it's doing something similar what it did back in 2022. And I don't I mean maybe it can go to the 111 110 maybe even back to the low 100s again to retest that but usually MSTR kind of like has been front running up and down Bitcoin. And if it's front running Bitcoin then it's probably telling us that this is all part of the bottoming process. And MSTR didn't even make an attempt of a lower low yet. And Bitcoin kind of did already. So the lower the low back in February was 104 on a week- toeek basis. I think after hours or pre-market it went down to the low 100s or even the 90s or something but on a month-to-month basis that was the low and our low this month so far is only 114. So we have not made a lower low attempt. We have not even touched the monthly cloud. So yes we could go down a little bit deeper but I think this is telling a story that all the past five months is part of the same bottoming process that we saw basically back in 2022. And I don't think that's uh we should be bearish in that zone. It looks like accumulation to me. Looks like previous resistance flipping to support. So I'm more inclined to be more optimistic in this zone than bearish.
So you're saying that there is an MSTR Bitcoin divergence because looking at the top right there, you also had the same divergence too recently, you know, where Bitcoin had uh just kept going until October of 20 25. But MSDR failed to make a higher high there, you know, in Yeah, it failed to make a higher high there. So, um there's a divergence there. 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It gets up to this pocket between 0.76 million, 0.76. You have reaccumulation, things cool off until it blasts up higher, or it goes down lower. I think that's also a possibility. I don't want to just be all like deterministic about it. But tap the top, tap the bottom, right there. It's stuck in a reaccumulation zone, as far as I'm concerned, because I don't think liquidity is really leaving the entire system.
China is also suffering from a lot of deflation. Um, I think they do have more room for stimulus. As well as you can see that the stock market has gone up, you know, like 90%. But simply just consolidating in the golden pocket, which is completely understandable based on algorithms, based on technical analysis. And it's also stuck in a wedge that's been forming for a very long time. This wedge has been going all the way since like 2011, and the peak over here was in 2017, or uh, sorry, 2017 or 2018. It's been stuck in a wedge. It broke down underneath the wedge. It grabbed liquidity, forming an Adam and Eve double bottom, and got back inside the wedge over here.
During this entire time over here, every single time it topped, it tapped this trend line over here. It's pretty much the bottom of this copper and gold ratio. Now, why is copper and gold ratio, why is it important? I made like videos and videos and videos about that. And I think I think China is going to be one of the major consumers for copper because of the industrial activity. Um, and you basically, it's an indicator of how much economic activity there actually is that is positive for the economy, rather than just liquidity just getting stuck in gold. Gold is more like a liquidity sink. A lot of people just kind of buy gold because they, they think it's like a storage of value, which it is. Uh, but on the other hand, when you have copper kind of underperforming gold, that just means that people are more focusing on trying to trap the liquidity and trying to, you know, fight to safety, as opposed to actually doing something with the liquidity, which the consumption of copper would do.
Pretty much every single time whenever it taps the line over here, whenever the Chinese equity has bottomed, it has basically also tapped the same line over here for copper and gold. And right now, we have just tapped the bottom over here about a few months ago. And we have also tapped the bottom over here a few months ago here for the Hang Seng index. But it's lagging. It is not ticking off yet. I don't know what is going to make it to tick off. It sometimes it doesn't matter. But the trend over there overall is still intact, right? Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe this time is different. Maybe the Hang Seng index is going to keep going down a lot further. Even though there's enough liquidity for other Asian markets to keep pumping, even though China is still a major manufacturer in that region, it, it's just going to be very, very unusual for it to just kind of crash from there. So if the Hang Seng index is holding okay, I think that's also going to bode well for Bitcoin and the overall global market as well. Um, because liquidity is still there. But if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I just don't see that being a high probability scenario at this point.
So, >> hey, somebody take over. Matt, you got anything to say? >> I think you covered it all for China. Yeah. >> Okay. [laughter] What do you think about it when I said I'm the wrong kind of Chinese or sorry, wrong kind of Asian? What do you think about that? >> I mean, [laughter] Kaiwan show. >> All right, Luca's getting a little uncomfortable, so I'm going to pass the mic back to him. >> All right, it's time for the serious stuff. Ethereum. >> Sorry, guys. I do that. >> Yeah, I mean, uh I don't know what what Matt said. I don't know if, uh, you know, >> he spoke Chinese. He, he actually knows how to speak Chinese. spoke Chinese, but I don't know what he said. >> He said you're a very handsome man and that he would like to get to know you better. >> man. >> I'm sorry, man. I don't >> When I was when I was, uh, you know, a little younger, that's somebody that's, uh, exactly how somebody played a prank on me in a foreign country. He, uh, I asked him, "How do I can I, you know, buy water? How do I say in in your language?" He told me it was not, let me tell you this. It was not, uh, >> how I wasn't asking that somebody how to buy water. >> Let me tell you that. [snorts] Yeah. >> Yeah. Embarrassing. Yes. [laughter] You know, but um a lot of time has passed since and, uh, since then, uh, you know, Bitcoin and, uh, Ethereum have been going down and up. But, uh, yeah, now we move on to Ethereum. And Ethereum is really interesting at the moment because a lot of people are currently really anxious about Ethereum. Ethereum seems kind of dead. Let's say we had this downtrend, pretty much a straight impulse down. And it reminds me very much of what happened here. Pretty much the same thing that has played out here is now happening in this time. Pretty much the same range, right? The price has rejected here this high time frame resistance range. It has tapped into this high time frame support. The, the price broke above it temporarily before eventually breaking below it once again. And pretty much the same setup that I've covered for Bitcoin is also playing out for Ethereum with a series of untapped lows and with a price forming these rising wedges on the low time frames and on the midterm before eventually breaking down.
Now the price has tapped into this high time frame support range, which has been the bottoming formation in April of last year, and I expect it to be the bottoming formation of this year as well. Because if we go back in the past, we see the importance of this range. We really start to see, you know, that this has been essentially a multi-yearly reversal spot for Ethereum. Initially acting as a resistance range in the consolidation phase of the bare market before the price eventually broke above it. Then we had this retest, this bullish backtest before a continuation lower, before a continuation higher. And then we had the price tapping into this high time frame support range in April of last year. The price bounced. Then we have another test in February of this year. The price has bounced and now the price has moved deeper into this high time frame support range. So I think that purely from a market structure perspective, the risk-reward setup is leaning in favor of buyers right now. But we have to see more developments in order to confirm that this is not a falling knife and that the price is not going to break below this range. But history tells us that this is a good range to buy and I wouldn't be surprised if this was the bottom for Ethereum that, uh, precedes a larger reversal to the upside. Yeah. So these are kind of my perspectives right now on Ethereum and, um, I think the chances of a reversal to the upside are pretty high right now. If we look purely at this, there are also a couple of on-chain conferences and a couple of other conferences with the Bitcoin dominance and the others dominance and the USDT dominance that I want to show you later. But for now, what do you guys think on, uh, the big boy Ethereum? Do you think that it's dead? Do you think that innovation has died for Ethereum and that this is the end or that we could have a bounce in the future? >> Uh, I think the sentiment is dead. Yeah. Nobody wants to really touch it anymore. Everybody's bearish. Everybody's on X being bearish about it. And, uh, I think it doesn't have any momentum to the upside right now. That's for sure. So we can probably be a little bit more patient. And right now, I think what we're seeing is, uh, prices just to what we saw in April. And I don't think many people remember what sentiment was like last year in like Q1 and April of last year. It was terrible, right? Everybody was talking about how Ethereum's dead and everybody wants Solana and stuff like that. Like that was the narrative as well back then. And then it had like a flush to the 1400s and it touched that 702 fib and basically just went higher. And we're basically in that same situation, but it's still a higher low from before, right? It's still a higher low from April and since the bottom in 2022, it's still kind of trending in the right direction, but it's not able to break any kind of resistance. It doesn't have any momentum to the upside and I think it's just going to take a lot more time. So, if we are going to just watch, uh, Ethereum, I think, uh, we got to maintain 2,000 really to get any more momentum to the upside and that's pretty much a ways away now. So, if we can't get back above that, it's probably going to be choppy for a while and it can't even come back down to the 1400, I think. Yeah, I even see in the chat people are talking about 900 in the chat right now. And on X, you see even like 400 ETH or even lower now. Like, I mean, that's kind of what you want to see for a bottom. You want people to keep spouting lower, lower, lower because, uh, when prices get to reasonable accumulation zones, they never want to buy. That's what we always see in markets, right? We see that. We saw that with Bitcoin miners last year. We saw with AMD last year. We saw with so many stocks last year how when prices were lower, people kept calling for lower. And I don't think that's really a strategy if you're in for, uh, if you're an investor, right? If you're an investor, you like to buy low, accumulate low. And if prices go lower, we accumulate lower, right? We don't always call lower. But if you're a trader, uh, when prices get to a level that you said you were going to buy, they usually they hesitate and they don't buy because they, they think, "Oh, it got down to here. I think it's going to go lower." So to always assume lower, I don't think it's a good strategy. But at the same time, I don't think it has any momentum to go higher right now. So I think we can be a little bit patient with Ethereum. And if we got some spare chains, yeah, accumulate. I've started buying Ethereum again too recently because I think, uh, it's in a good zone, right? It's in a multi-year accumulation zone right now. And we've seen this zone forever and ever, right? Ever since, uh, price was back in 2022, this has been the zone historically, right? Every time price goes back below 2,000, I think that was accumulation. We saw it here, that was accumulation. We saw it back in 2025, accumulation. And we're seeing it now. If it goes deeper in that zone, then guess what? That's still more accumulation in my eyes since I like to be an investor and a trader of N and Cat. Can't wait to take a break. >> I think the the idea of calling something dead and and I'm gonna, you know, make you guys panic here by talking about religion. Like, why do we have to be so biblical about it before resurrection? We have to call somebody dead and then build a religion from that. Like that's not why, why does it always happen that way, right? Um, anyway, [laughter] before I kind of talk about what, uh, what I think here, uh, I'm not going to go through too much detail. I think you guys covered most of it. I just going to say this first thing is, um, just based on the, um, like this is the, uh, order block detector, um, from Lux Algo. He has this, um, way of basically like there's no way for you to actually know what the buy order blocks are from the whales. These are just like a rough estimate in terms of what, uh, what he was able to do based on algorithmically based on momentum based on volume based on things like that. And you can see that there are some pretty decent buy order blocks right where price is at right now. Kind of difficult to envision for it to kind of double tap this area right there. It's absolutely insane. But it did it and so be it. The risk world ratio continue to get, you know, better and better once it gets to that area right here. And then a lot of people are calling for a lot lower even though there seem to be some, you know, pretty decent buy order, um, buy pressure down here at this zone over here during the entire lick down here. You can also see that the downtrend has decelerated. We don't really quite have like a bullish divergence like we do with Bitcoin that clearly, but the RSI has a hard time really breaking lower. And that really is a deceleration of this vicious downtrend, right? I don't really want to draw lines, but this is like a, a little bit of a deceleration over here. Sometimes that's what it takes is to have, um, another flush lower for RSI to not crash down and actually stabilize. Maybe even form a little bit of a higher, higher, uh, low over here. Right now it's a little bit more of an equal low. That's fine. This is on-balance volume. You do have about an equal low over here too. So even like the buying pressure based on volume balances are stabilizing, I guess is what I'm trying to say. And then the last thing I also want to show is the Bollinger band. You do have a bunch of contraction. Whenever you have a bull contraction, usually you have a pretty decent, um, support area right there. It doesn't always catch it. You can always wick down or close down a little bit lower, kind of like it did over here or it did over here. But in general, like when you have a contracting Bollinger band though, that's generally serve as some pretty decent, you know, support here. So, I can see it potentially just kind of rangebound here for a while. I'm not saying that it's going to V-shape from here because even looking at the momentum indicators, it's not quite ready to kind of, you know, do any kind of V-shape at all. Um, I can see more consolidation, more pain, more people to, you know, uh, just basically giving up on it and the next thing you know, um, it resurrects and, you know, it could take 2,000 years, you know, or it can take a few days, you know, whatever you think about it. But, uh, I think at some point I think it's going to, you know, resurrect, um, sometime probably around like Q3, Q, like late Q3, I can see it, you know, really kind of getting back up here and to change the trend here a little bit more. We really need to reclaim the 20-week moving average though, which we still haven't really been able to do and it's still pretty negatively sloping. So I can see a little bit more range-boundedness over here for another two months before, you know, really kind of figuring out what, what it wants to do. But more likely closer to the bottom than if you believe in anything that I say at this point. >> You're saying Q3, that's for your cycle speak that you're saying. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, I mean, I, I do think that this is probably more, I, I agree with you guys. I agree with Luca. I think this is probably more similar to this, uh, candle over here in November 2022, right? I think this is probably more similar to that because we have finally trying to battle the negative sloping 20-week moving average, kind of like we did over here. Here it did it multiple times. Here we just kind of did it for a few weeks and it just gave up, you know. Here it did it multiple times. It just kept dragging, dragging, dragging on. But I do think that this like boom over here probably is more similar because it's getting closer to low Bollinger band. Over here, it is right at the low band over here. I do think that, uh, things generally don't go that much further beyond the two standard deviations. They just don't. Um, and if they do, usually it's a little bit of a rubber band. So I, I think that this is indeed a, you know, lower low compared to that. Sure. But the downtrend has decelerated as you can see. Right. So that, that's, Yeah. >> Very nice, Luca. >> All right. We also want to add something to what Matt said earlier about the sentiment being really bad right now. I really like what I really love about this market is the people. So the people who, you know, call Ethereum dead. Let's say in the comments, call Ethereum dead or Bitcoin dead or anything dead. And then once we have, uh, rallies in that market, in that asset, they ask, uh, whether it's a good buying opportunity. You know, we've seen this playing out in, in, uh, last year with Ethereum. I remember that the price tapped into this high time frame support range exactly like now, and people were extremely anxious to buy. They were saying, "Okay, we're going to go lower. 900 is the next target." And so forth. And eventually we, we went up to, you know, three, $4,000. And then they were asking whether it's still a good buying opportunity. You know, they were highlighting breakouts because it's not really them. It's really the, the influencers who engage really poorly in, uh, in the timeline. You know, the engagement baiters and, uh, so forth that the algorithm really promotes nowadays, especially with the changes. We have many such influencers or engagement baiters who flip bearish when the price is going down and flip bullish once the price is going up. And that's really dangerous for people who aren't really accustomed to the markets. I think that's really dangerous and that's why you should always be careful to who you follow as, um, additional comment. That's what I would say and that's how you avoid these traps because if you really look into these influencers and their track history, they don't really have anything to say. They don't really have a thesis that they go with or they don't really track confluences that they go with and that they trust. They only go with the flow and it works out. You know, you, you see big accounts with 4, 500,000 followers who do this exact thing and they're not there to help you, to say the least. So you got to be careful to who you follow and only follow those who track objective confluences and things like that so you don't get trapped like, um, many people unfortunately do. Yeah. So returning to our confluences here, I wanted to talk about the USDT dominance. The USDT dominance is right now testing the high time frame resistance range that has marked the bare market top. So for those that may not be familiar with the USDT dominance, it is directly, uh, inversely correlated to the broader crypto market. So when the USDT dominance is going up, we generally have corrections in the crypto market and whenever the USDT dominance is going down, we have rallies in the broader crypto market because that signals that there's less cash in the portfolio of investors. Uh, a very simplified way to say it. And that they hold more crypto tokens. Essentially, that's, uh, how it works. It's a very simplified way. It's, um, a bit more complicated than that. But what I wanted to say right now is that from a technical perspective, the chances of a reversal to the downside are very high. And the last time the USDT dominance tested this range was back here in February when we had that massive crash. Will remember when, you know, a lot of, uh, a lot of, um, Bitcoin also went down, Ethereum went down, and that's when we had this big spike in the USDT dominance when it tested this high in frame resistance range and then it went back down and retraced. And the same thing is happening right now. We had this big spike on the weekly time frame in the USDT dominance and it seems like it's retracting as well. So we need to track this closely. I think that as long as the USDT dominance continues to stay below this range, we have nothing really to worry about on the high time frames because again, this is the same range that has marked the top in the bare market. So seeing the USDT dominance being at this range while the price of Bitcoin is still holding well above $60,000 is also incredible to see. And, uh, yeah, I mean, the risk-reward setup is still leaning in favor of buyers for the broader crypto market as long as the USDT dominance continues to stay below this high time frame resistance range. So these are my thoughts and, uh, this is a very strong confluence to have. Essentially, every time the USDT dominance tested this range, it led to continuation lower. So I wouldn't see why it wouldn't be the case right now as well. And correlating this with what I've said earlier regarding funding rates and the open interest and the broader market structure and liquidity traps that have formed for crypto and, uh, Bitcoin and Ethereum in particular with a series of untapped lows. We have very many bullish confluences that are all lining up. And if we also correlate that to the broader market environment, which we've highlighted earlier regarding the correlation between gold, equity markets, and the crypto market, like we've seen for last year for gold, which was rallying and, uh, a lot of people were chasing gold, were ignoring the equity markets. Equity markets were underperforming. That's what happened last year. And then we had a liquidity rotation from gold into equity markets, which we've now seen as equity markets have outperformed gold by a large margin over the last couple of weeks and months. And the same thing I believe is happening right now with the, the S&P 500 and the crypto market, as traditional equities are outperforming the crypto market right now. Everybody is chasing equities, which have already rallied and no longer have the risk-reward setup leaning in favor of buyers anymore, as they had a couple of months ago when everybody else was chasing gold. And, uh, now they're ignoring crypto. And so by tracking all of these confluences, we can really gain a complete perspective that things are closer to a bottom rather than a top. So that's a very simplified way to put it. We need to think about objectively whether the downside risk that is still that still remains, you know, because a lot of people are currently wondering, well, is the bottom in? Couldn't the prices go lower? That if the downside risk we are exposing ourselves to is worth the upside potential, and in my view, through these bullish confluences which we've identified, is worth it. So these are kind of my perspectives on the broader crypto market and broader market environment and, uh, the USDT dominance. So, do you guys have anything to add to that to the USDT dominance? >> Uh, not really for me for the USDT dominance, but yeah, I agree with you completely that it's at a bare market high right now and there's really usually typically only one direction it goes after that and that is back down. Um, I do, I do want to share this chart again that I've been sharing on X since last year as well. Uh, the altcoin chart and I, I know Cat has seen this one before too. How I, how we saw back in October of last year trying to break the arc here on altcoins and we're basically back there again, almost touching the 45-degree angle. So these are weekly candles and it's coming to an inflection point, right? I think, uh, we'll see a decision made pretty soon whether it's going to break out or not and that could be sometime maybe in June or July. So, I just wanted to throw that out there again because this has been tracking the cycles pretty well with the blue level breakout, backtest of that level, then the arc was resistance before. Then it came to the top arc and now it's going towards that 45-degree angle and it's getting close. It's getting close for an inflection point. So, um, hopefully that gets resolved to the upside. So, we'll see. >> K. Yeah, let me, uh, put a couple things here. Uh, just as a confluence, I think you, if I just overlay two things on the USDT dominance chart here. First is the Bollinger band. Second is the RSI. You can see that, um, additional confluence, just like last peak over here. He was basically peaking up here on some, uh, you know, bearish divergence and that is ultimately worked out here. We're basically experiencing very, very similar, like very similar wick structure actually, and also very similar bearish divergences between the two. On top of that, you also have a contracting Bollinger band, which is probably most likely to serve as more resistance, um, getting ready for a trend change. And we basically been seeing very similar thing over here too. So there's some additional confluence for you. One thing we haven't really talked about was the US dollar. I think we are, uh, we've been basically forming like a crazy backtest of like a bearish backtest of the trend line over here for the US, um, dollar index here for over a year. And every single time we backtest, backtest, backtest, people get more and more bearish on Bitcoin, Bitcoin, Bitcoin. And we just had another backtest of the trend line so far this month. Um, as far as I'm concerned, I, I'm more bearish at resistance and I'm more bullish at support. So that's just kind of the way that I operate. I think I'm more bullish on assets and on Bitcoin than I am on the US dollar. Even though US dollar has had a six-month bull trend, right? I mean, looks like it's just kind of peaking up over here, but it's also hitting a key resistance point here, too. A lot of people also worry about yields. I mean, yields is a little bit tougher for me to kind of gauge. The reason why it's tougher for me to gauge is is here's a two-year yield. It's actually had a pretty decent bullish reversal here over the last four months in terms of two-year yield. And if yield goes up, generally that means it's just hard to borrow money and generally it's, you know, a little bit more bearish from the market. I guess it's just kind of how you think about it. But it's also hitting resistance here, too. It's stuck in the monthly Ichimoku here for about four months in a row. Is going up to the tank, uh, the, the Kijun or the baseline over here on the monthly after a bearish cross. So, this looks like maybe like a little bit more exhausted move here up for the, uh, the yields here too. Maybe before we have a reversal. Now, I don't know who's going to be, you know, what, what the new Fed chair Walsh is going to do. I don't really know. I think they generally kind of gauge economic activity and gauge, um, economic, um, data. Anyway, I don't think that like a Fed chair is really going to really be completely changing economic policies or anything like that. So, I think the, the whole thing about new Fed chair coming in in the market crash is probably a little bit overblown, but it is hitting resistance here. So, it's kind of interesting to to see what it does over time. The, the message I do have is this. I'm not saying like I think Luca has some really good points. The risk-reward ratio probably skews more towards crypto at this point, but I'm also not saying to like sell all your stocks and buy crypto. Like that's not what we're necessarily saying because the trend is also your friend. And you also have a recent outperformance of the NASDAQ over the S&P 500. This is usually more risk-on environment. Um, this is the monthly chart and Bollinger bands expanding on this ratio. And we're basically just simply backtesting the upper Bollinger band after QQQ has way out o overperformed S&P 500. That's why we had the 2% crash on SPY. And, uh, that's why we had the 5% crash in the QQQ, right? It's just basically correcting a little bit more. So we're not that overextended. But most likely the outperformance on NASDAQ over S&P 500 most likely will continue. Most likely the QQQ will likely keep going because the, these are what I refer to as the Keltner channels. And where you break above the Keltner channels and get really impulsive. Generally things get pretty impulsive though for about a year or two. So I'm not saying to sell anything to try to get into crypto. I'm just saying that at this point, if you have new capital, you have a tough choice between whether or not to chase momentum, which could keep going, or try to buy a base, which will require patience. Um, if you have, if you chase momentum, you might be not, you know, you might already miss out majority of the gain over here, but you might still have some gains to make. Right? You might miss out majority of the gains over here, but you might still have some gains to make. But if you buy a base, you might suffer through, but ultimately you might end up making more percentage gain over time. There's no right approach to this. That's why I'm going back to here to kind of saying that there are champions during each of these kind of year because things are rotating from one thing to another. If you are in small cap AI and semiconductor plays, if you are in Iron, Cipher, CleanSpark, look like it's actually building up a pretty decent base for potential breakout later on, maybe in 2027 as well. If you're in these plays, I'm not telling you to rotate out of that. I'm just trying to put a perspective in terms of what could potentially happen. And there's no right way to approach the market. There is just the wrong way is to chase euphoria at the peak. That's the only like, if you chase gold over the last few months, you're probably doing it wrong, right? That's the only thing I have to say. Otherwise, there's not really a right approach to the market there. We're just talking to get you thinking about it. That's the whole point. And we are a little bit more contrarian. Sometimes contrarian, uh, stance does that we do get punished in the short term, but ultimately, if you let time to run and if you build your portfolio to your own risk tolerance, so you don't get shaken up by all these different narratives and so you don't get, you know, really bitter when you see something else being pumping and your back is not pumping, right? It's all, I think it's always good to kind of allocate maybe three or four different sectors and to kind of put the risk ratio in terms of where things are based on your own investment philosophy. I'm done. >> Very well said, Cat. Very well said. And, um, I think for me, just final thoughts on the, uh, markets in general. Uh, I just want to show you this, uh, SPY chart. So people are all concerned about if stocks are going to sell off into next week, and I think they can go down a little bit more, right? I think what I'm looking at right here is, uh, maybe SPY can pull back to the 720s. So things are a little bit overextended still. So that goes along with what Cat was saying too. Like if you're chasing after big breakouts, the risk-reward gets, uh, worse and worse if you're doing that. So it, it would be normal for the markets in general to experience a pullback. So I think they could go down a little bit more, but is it something to panic? I don't think anything to panic at all. I think it's been following these fibs pretty, pretty nicely over time. And I still think, uh, getting closer to 800 for the SPY is likely. But overall, things were extended. So if the things want to get more, uh, volatile into the weeks to come, that's fine for stocks. And I think there could be a little bit more profit taking before things resume to the higher. But, uh, I don't think we should fight this bullish trend for stocks at all. I think we should still enjoy the ride. The trend is our friend and I think pullbacks can be welcomed and as long as we don't chase, we can benefit from them. That's all I have 100%. I also want to add, uh, something as a final thought. Something very interesting Cat has also mentioned were the yields. So here I have the 2-year, uh, treasury bonds. Now, even though they have reversed to the upside over last couple of weeks, it's still below this last high time frame support range, which, uh, has been the bottom in 2023, in 2024, and then once the, the 2-year yield has broken below it, we had this brief deviation above it, and then it acted as a resistance here in, uh, 2025 when the broader markets were bottoming out here in March of this year. And now. And I believe that right now yields are a bit overextended mainly because this spike has been driven by anxiety rather than changes in the overall fundamentals. So even though we've seen a spike in inflation that has been driven by the, the spike in prices because oil has ripple effects across global economies because everything that needs to be transported, shipped, or, you know, delivered to customers or to businesses has gone up in price because the transportation cost has gone up because there has been less, less oil, oil that has been, uh, transported because the Strait of Hormuz has been closed. So that's, uh, a whole another topic. That's why yields have gone up mainly because of anxiety around potential future escalations. Now, will inflation remain high? I doubt that. I believe that the latest spike in inflation and the PC data and the core inflation and CPI and so forth have been driven by this temporary geopolitical escalation and event that is not necessarily tied to fundamentals because fundamentals are really businesses, business spending, consumers, the state of the consumers, the state of the labor market, and these sort of things. So whenever you have a temporary spike because of some temporary event that is going on that is not that is very unlikely to last, and I don't believe that this is going to last either. So once geopolitical tensions will go away, because at some point they do, this whole war is one tweet away from being over. We're going to have yields going down. And the, that's, uh, sort of my last, the, the last confluence I wanted to bring in this, uh, market talk is the fact that this range has marked the, the bottom in, uh, last year as well in April when we had the yields testing this range. The broader markets were bottoming out and that preceded a large reversal to the upside. So this is just another confluence to our overall bullish thesis. So, uh, if you guys don't have anything else to add, that has been, uh, my final point. >> Yeah, I think it's a pretty good way to end the show. Um, I think we've already kind of covered most things. Um, everything else just product details. Um, we'll see how they work out and, uh, we'll come back maybe in a couple weeks or so and, uh, we'll keep doing this. >> Only when there's fear in the market though. Then we'd never come on euphoric days. [laughter] >> Never. >> Oh no. I just like hands and I just like to go and grab and hold them. So that's, I don't know. That's >> so so sweet. >> Yeah. Well, we're like, we just like to come out and like scream at people's ears when they don't want to hear it just because we're, we're weird. Anyway, >> yeah. No, fun times as always. Thank you so much for making the time and, uh, until next time, Jens. Until next time. >> All right, guys. It's been awesome talking to you. Thanks for joining. Yeah. Bye. >> Bye. Right. to go.