Is $1M Bitcoin Inevitable? New Price Model Says THIS

Like every other cycle, there was kind of like this discount that Bitcoin could go to zero, potentially. But at this point, I think it's really hard to make that argument. I really do. Um, people can try, but I mean, you just, there's, it's just not, you're going to have to use a lot of logical fallacies. I, I don't see really an argument for it at this point.

>> All right, Plan C. Welcome to Bitcoin for Millennials.

>> Yeah, thanks for having me. Looking forward to it. Uh, always looking, always fun talking about Bitcoin, and then I'm a bit of a nerd, so I love talking about the uh, the data and stuff. But no, I really appreciate you having me on the show and look forward to getting into it.

>> Yeah, well, I appreciate you coming on. I mean, I've had different conversations about the math behind uh Bitcoin, and I think what you are working on is an extension to what I've talked about before. So I personally find that very interesting, and I also think it can help people to, um, yeah, build conviction over time, you know? Like there's a lot of headlines, there's a lot of YouTube titles, there's a lot of, um, super bullish uh podcasts and people, and that's that's all fun, of course. But I personally think, um, and and it's also something that's helped me in my conviction. There is a mathematical uh truth, um, or at least something is happening mathematically behind the adoption of of Bitcoin. And uh, just diving deeper into that, I think is very interesting. And so, so before we go into your model, I just uh kind of wanted to touch briefly on on how this all started for you. Like, what led you to to dive deep in analyzing Bitcoin with with all these mathematical uh uh models and and what makes it so intriguing for you?

>> Yeah, absolutely. So, it's been, uh, it's been a fun journey. It's been a crazy roller coaster journey. Uh, for those people that have been in, you know, crypto and Bitcoin for a while, um, I'm sure lots of crazy stories, obviously. But for me, um, it started kind of in late 2017. So, I was running a a business or owner of a business, and one of the employees, um, basically had had a Bitcoin, and he said, you know, I bought this Bitcoin at, uh, 200, I think it was like 2,000 Canadian or something. And he's like, I'm going to sell it at 2, 20,000 Canadian. He basically wanted it like a 10x. And so he told, he happened to start talking about Bitcoin, uh, around October, November, I believe it was, u because obviously the price was going up. He was getting closer to his targets. And I was not, like, Bitcoin and crypto was not on my radar. I had a startup business. I was so focused. I was working 80, 100 hour weeks, focused on this business. Um, we'd been open a couple years, and so I was like, totally not in that realm. But he started talking about it, and then I happened to be checking the price over a period of days, and it coincided with the major uh parabolic peak we had in 2017. And so I'm texting with him and like, dude, this thing's going up like this. The price is changing, you know, $1,000 every couple hours here. What's happening? Like, what's going on? So I didn't, I didn't hold any Bitcoin, but I was living, you know, in a way through him, happy for the guy, right? And, uh, that kind of brought it on my radar. So after that, um, I kind of got addicted, so to speak. Like, all of 2018, you know, I went through the whole crypto shitcoin, you know, like a lot of people have to go through. So I went through that in 2018. It was a wild ride, as you remember, you know, that was when these these um, uh, ICOs and all this craziness. So I went through that whole experience and, um, just kept researching, kept, you know, listening to tons of Bitcoin podcasts and and and crypto too at the time. Um, and it finally, it clicked. Uh, it took a while, but it finally clicked with me. Um, just before actually, uh, the the 2020 crash. Uh, it f- like I was just fortunate. It was the timing. It really clicked with me, uh, that I needed to be in Bitcoin. And so, even though I had lost money up until that point, some of the money I had lost, uh, in in alts, um, I'd only put in, uh, not not all my my money. I'd put in like a relatively small percentage, luckily. And so, um, like, you know what? I'm going to put in, I kind of went crazy. Uh, so even retirement accounts, I I liquidated what we have in Canada called RRSPs, you know, and, um, just put everything I could possibly put in. And I and I happened to getting at the very low of of the 2020 crash, but I got in at a really good price levels and I've just held ever since, to be honest. I've rode it. I rode all the Bitcoin. I've just hodddled, you know, kept it the the whole write up, you know, during, uh, I I I started to kind of research, um, indicators and things, um, kind of going into, I guess, '21, 2021. But anyways, rode it all the way up, rode all the way down, uh, during the FTX. Had a lot of conviction at that point. So, I'm like, you know what, I believe in this. I'm just going to hold it. And I and I felt comfortable this cycle. I mean, I've been through multiple cycles, but this cycle I have been so calm. It's amazing, like having having math and and these models and just having the understanding of Bitcoin, um, all these things combined for me has made it so that I've just been so low stress this cycle, and and I haven't even posted as much content because I've been working on other things. I'm not, I'm not really that concerned about Bitcoin, to be honest. I check in on it, but I mean, cycle before, I was checking the price all the time, right? Couple times a day, whatever. Now it's like a couple times a week. Like, I I just, I mean, it it obviously, you know, as we get closer to what I think will the the peak will be, I'll be checking in more and I'll be watching all the models and indicators more. But this period, I'm just like, I know what's happening. Like, we're just flushing out old old uh early Bitcoiners. We got to work through this, and and I'm just kind of, uh, patiently waiting. So, but yeah, sorry about the long ramp, but that's, uh, yeah, it's basically been my journey. I mean, I as far as the the research side of things, I've been full-time the last five years. Have been fortunate to be full-time, um, just re-researching and learning about Bitcoin and, um, really focused on, um, uh, modeling Bitcoin. It's, it's been kind of a mission of mine, and it, it, I went through this like on-chain phase where I, you know, had the top-tier subscription to Glassnode. I looked through all their metrics and indicators. I looked into TA, you know, I looked into kind of like all the different ways you can analyze Bitcoin, and ultimately, it's, it's now a statistical model, which I find the most useful and, um, for me, anyways.

>> Yeah. Awesome. Thanks. Thanks for that introduction. I think that is, um, that is awesome to to learn. So when we move to your model, the Bitcoin quantile model, um, I think it's gaining, uh, more and more, uh, attention, right? Because people are thinking about, okay, how can I predict wherever this cycle is going to go and then, uh, act on that, right? And so while some of my listeners are familiar with, uh, the Bitcoin power law, because that is what this is, uh, I don't want to say an extension to, but I think, uh, it came after the power law, and it uses the power, um, or you use the power law in your model. So I've discussed the power law a few times on the podcast. People can check my conversations with Giovanni Santostasi or Steven Perano, um, and Smitty, also with, uh, a retirement guide, where I talked a lot about it. But maybe before we move on to your Bitcoin quantile model, kind of briefly explain, uh, what the power law is and why you can use it for the model that that you are building.

>> Yeah. So, so over, you know, the last five years, really kind of looking everywhere to see, okay, where, where are the tools and where are the indicators, and and in what ways, you know, can I actually understand Bitcoin cycles? And one thing I really found, um, from looking through all the on-chain stuff and Glassnode and and really a lot of the indicators that were out there, is there was this diminishing tur- diminishing, uh, peaks. So it was really hard for a lot of these indicators, like you have the MVRV, some people are familiar with that one, but, you know, you have the Z-score MVRV or whatever. So you have these peaks up, but the problem is, every cycle, they're kind of going down, and you're not sure to what degree they're going to go down. And so with the power law, like this was something I basically became aware of, uh, just over a year ago now, probably year, year and a bit. And, um, I'm like, okay, this, this is interesting to me. This is very interesting because, you know, understanding the math behind it, I did a deep dive on the power law, um, initially, and just to fully understand it, and I'm like, okay, this, this is very useful, um, as far as like a long-term approximation, you know, you can draw what's called an OS regression, which is basically just a line through the the data set. So, we look at, um, the power law. You're looking at, uh, log of price versus the log of hours since the Bitcoin genesis block, or log of days or whatever you want to do, but you're looking at basically price versus time. Those are the, like, that's what you're looking at. And so, a log of price versus log of time. And so, it's, it's more of an observation, the power law in my opinion, you know, um, because you have to still create a model around it. So, the power law itself, it's like, okay, here's an observation. We can see there seems to be a pattern here. Um, but if you just draw a line through that, it's really not that useful. I mean, you're basically like, okay, so we have a a trend line, you could say, or we have, you know, that you can do like, um, it's called a median regression or a mean regression, where you're basically just drawing a line through the data. And so that that doesn't really tell you necessarily where you are in reference to that line. You can look at like standard deviations and things. There's there are ways you can kind of approximate, but regardless, the the issue was that there was this, for the for the peaks of the cycles, there was a clear downtrend that was not being accounted for. So if you just took that middle middle line and you extended that up, you know, it it wasn't, it didn't hit the peaks. And if you kind of put it at the bottom, it was more accurate. The bottom, uh, bottom 50% of the data is is more following that power law, but the top 50%, it's a completely different pattern, and no one had really, up until that point, no one had really modeled it that well. And so, um, yeah, anyways, I I mean, essentially, I just, I just, I just went on this journey of like trying to figure out how to best understand and model the peaks of the cycles, and and for me, it was more about figuring out, okay, within the data set, where are we?

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>> Like how can we mathematically define where we are within the data set? Meaning, how many days have we traded above this point? How many days have we traded below? What percentage of days? Percentage above and below? Because that gives you a reference point, at least based on the math and all the historical data we have, roughly speaking, where we are. And so to me, that that starts to make it useful. And so, um, yeah, I mean, that that's really, uh, to a large extent, uh, the journey I went on, and and I collaborated, like, I, you know, I've had calls with lots of other great analysts, um, you know, and and and we kind of racked our brains, and, um, and really the the big breakthrough, uh, for me was quantile regression. Um, that's kind of a, so which which we'll see on some of these charts we'll share and stuff. But, um, yeah, how much did you want me to, uh, keep going, or maybe I have another question?

>> Yeah. No, I think I think this is great, right? Because, um, what I loved when I discovered the power law is that, uh, I mean, I don't have a math background, but I was just very intrigued by, uh, the supposedly predictive nature of this, right? And I think that's also how Giovanni talks about the power law, that well, apparently Bitcoin grows like a power law, right? Like that that was the discovery. And so I really like how, um, you are now making that practical. And so I think that's a great bridge to, um, yeah, talking about how your quantile model works, right? So could you try to explain in in simple terms how the quantile model predicts, um, these Bitcoin price ranges? Um, what do the quantiles represent, and, yeah, how, how can this approach help people to, uh, to get insights, uh, on on the price behavior? Uh, I have some charts that I can pull up. I don't know if you, if you want to pull up the the median one.

>> Yeah, for sure. We can we can definitely get in the charts. What, what, what is modeling like, why is it useful? Like, why, why is this a worthy pursuit, right? You know, Bitcoin just goes up and to the right. Like, that's what a lot of people say, or all the models will break anyways, right? But the thing for me is, is, um, you know, you can you can research Bitcoin, and people get conviction in different ways. For some people, you know, they just really need to understand Bitcoin. They kind of understand certain elements of it, you know, geopolitics, whatever. They have their own ways of getting conviction. But there's a percentage of people that like to see charts, and they like to see, there's a lot of, you know, guys in Bitcoin and crypto and mathematical minded. And so, for us, like having a tool where we can visually kind of zoom out. I look at as a way of zooming out because throughout the cycle, inevitably, there's going to be moments where our emotions are tested, right? And em, and if you're being, if you're being, um, influenced, uh, to to a degree by your emotions, it's okay. Obviously, we're influenced to a degree, but if it's excessive, it can cause us to make bad decisions. And so, I look at these tools as ways of first having conviction long-term. If you're going to hold for a very long time, it gives you that, you know, additional conviction. Um, but then also, you know, for people that maybe don't have that extreme conviction yet, it it's it gives them a little bit of a way of kind of, uh, calming your emotions at times throughout the cycle and being like, you know what, we're just kind of where we're supposed to be. There's nothing abnormal here. Even if it feels abnormal, there's some crazy headline, you know, there's there's panic on on social media. Social media tends to amplify everything anyways. So, it it it makes it even worse than it is. But but you know, during those moments of some people might have panic or whatever, it it kind of brings you, zooms zooms you out and just says, look, you know what, we're kind of where we're supposed to be anyways. So, okay. So, so this image here, what this is showing, just to keep it super simple, um, based on the y-axis on the left, um, you know, that, so that's that's price. Um, so the way it's being drawn there is is not using actual price numbers, but it, it's basically price on the left. Um, and then on the on the bottom, you have hours since the Bitcoin genesis block. So, with the quantile model, I'm actually using hourly data. So, um, the cool thing about using hourly data is you have like 132,000 data points at this point. So, it's a ton of data, and, um, it's really useful because when we're looking at the upper quantiles, even the top 1% of the data set, we still have 1,300 data points. So, um, I like to use the hourly data. And so, um, basically, yeah, the x-axis there is hours since the Bitcoin genesis block, and then on the y-axis, we have time. And so, I like to look at it in this way. You can look at it in in, uh, log log. So, so a, some people, sorry, some people don't understand this. You can actually visually look at something and have the x and y axis different than the actual math. So the math behind this is log versus log, but the visual I'm showing is log linear. And the reason why is it's so much more intuitive. If you're looking at the y-axis log and the x-axis log, you just see the straight line. But the thing is, humans perceive time linearly. We don't perceive time log. So it really condenses the end of the chart and makes it confusing for people to kind of understand. So I find this view, uh, personally, a lot better and more intuitive. So, uh, on this chart, what you have, the red line, what that represents is, uh, basically a median regression, and so it's a 0.5 quantile regression. What that means is 50% of the data points. So, if you take all 132,000 data points for Bitcoin, all the hours since the very beginning, um, basically you have 50% of the data that falls below that line, 50% that falls above that line. And so it's a mathematical formula, but essentially it creates that line. So this, you could call as like the trend line, or you could call, some people might call it fair value. You know, you could argue if it's fair value or not, but it's a pretty good approximation. Um, but yeah, I don't know if you have any specific questions, but it just, it's, it's actually the starting point for my model. So the model has multiple steps, but the starting point is simply doing a, what's called a quantile regression or a median regression.

>> Yeah. And so the median is, uh, the starting point to go up and down to eventually, uh, predict or show to a degree what eventually all the different segments are, right? I'm just, I'm just rephrasing or replying to to make it more simple as I'm not.

>> Yeah. No, appreciate that. It'll make it definitely useful to do. So.

>> Yeah. So, the first thing I noticed when I when I saw this, but also the the power law graph, is you, and I also don't like the diminishing returns idea, but you kind of, you kind of do see it, right? Um, maybe I shouldn't say I don't like it, but I don't understand it as there, you know, conceptually, when I think about absolute finite supply combined with logically over time an infinite amount of demand, right?

>> As the reason of existence, right? The problem with the debasement of the currency will be more clear to more people. More people will try to find a way out, right? So the, um, demand will will go up, at least conceptually in my head. But in practice, you see that there's something else happening. Doesn't mean it, it cannot change, but that was for me like one of the things where I was like, okay, that's interesting because I would suspect like a supply squeeze at some point. But in this, in these 15 years, we've seen that it actually, it does grow, right? But there are diminishing returns up until now, we have to say.

>> Yeah, yeah. And that's definitely a, I mean, in a way, I understand that people kind of might be averse to that initially because it's like, okay, you know, we're never going to see those gains back that we had in 2013. But you have to understand, it's, there's also, um, a stabilization element. There's a less volatility element. The people back in 2013, I mean, there was way more volatile. The the trend of volatility actually has gone down over the course of Bitcoin's history. Very similar to the diminishing returns. There's a clear, uh, reduction in volatility, a pattern that no one can deny since the beginning of Bitcoin. And so, you know, there's less fluctuations in the price. It's more stable. There's thicker order books. There's lots of ways you can speak to this, you know, higher market cap, uh, more clear adoption, you know, so all these all these things are making it less, um, it's easier to hold now than it was in 2013. I mean, uh, you got, we got to think about it relatively speaking. Okay, maybe there was, uh, potentially more gains back then. However, you know, the people back then had to have a lot of a lot of conviction, um, because they didn't know all the things we know now. How much Bitcoin has been adopted, and and it's, there's a lot of, maybe back then. Now, there's things that have actually occurred. Plus, the volatility is way down, and so people don't have to, you know, hold through those as extreme periods, although of course, there's still going to be some extreme periods. But, so it's, it's, uh, I mean, it's just what it is, what it is. I mean, all we can do, my my personal thing is, I just want to present the data the way it is. I mean, I can say, I can say something that's not true if you want, you know, and I can say like, oh, we're going to go to, you know, 5 million next month.

>> It's, it's just, it's not the reality of any pattern we're seeing now. If the US dollar completely collapses,

>> you know, I people don't understand how dangerous of a world it would be to live in if Bitcoin went to 5 million tomorrow. Like, you don't want that. You want this kind of healthy adoption over time. And that's really how a lot of these, uh, networks have have, um, gained adoption, like the internet, you know, you could say, or there's so many other examples of networks, and and Bitcoin is a, is a network. Um, it is a financial asset, obviously, as well. So it's, it's complex. There's a lot of elements. It's kind of a network, a network of networks, so to speak. Um, but yeah, it's, um, to me, I'm fine with the diminishing returns because there's still tons of returns left, and it's easier now to hold Bitcoin than ever. And if, if there is some sort of a collapse of the system in the short term, yeah, we might, we might see even bigger, um, we might, we might get even bigger returns than expected. I still think the overall trend is diminishing returns. Um, yeah.

>> Because you just need so much more money to keep those returns like, as the market cap grows, it just, there's only so much money in the world, right? Or or so much denominated fiat, whatever value. So anyways, it's a whole another, it's a whole deep conversation in of itself, the whole diminishing returns. But I'll just show you the data, and then, I mean, it's, it's, um, it's definitely still very bullish as far as, uh, lots of gains, you know, coming still. And, uh, yeah, we're not too late, so to speak, right?

>> No, I I think it's great because like I'm saying that I don't like the diminishing returns because I'd rather see some sort of short squeeze. But that's just what I really want to see. But, um, I think actually seeing the math has definitely helped me also in my conviction over time, and what you said, like this cycle, I am super chill, right? Like, or whether we go up and down, even when we hit, you know, the 124, 25, I'm like, yeah, okay, of course we hit that, right? Like, that's so, it's, it's, I think, uh, more conviction to a degree, but also more, uh, foundational, right? Like, um, I'm, I'm, I'm content with my choice going all in on this, like that's how I'm following it now, and it's just different also emotionally than, uh, 2017. So.

>> Yeah, the next one there. So.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah. And so, uh, very last thing on the last topic is, if people, you know, I'm not telling people what to do, for sure. Um, but there are ways to get exposure to more volatility while still being connected to Bitcoin. And and we're speaking on Bitcoin today. I don't really, you know, we don't have to speak on other things, but, you know, there are still other ways, uh, if you have long-term conviction in Bitcoin, that you can, you know, potentially hold something like MicroStrategy or some other, um, you know, vehicle that gives you potentially, you know, kind of reverses the clock back five years, and you might have some of that volatility that existed back then still. But it's all about conviction of Bitcoin at the end of the day for me. Um, so yeah, this, this chart here. So, so what I did with the first chart, um, is we, we've created that initial, uh, line in the middle of the data set. So, 50% of the data above, 50% below, you know, 50% of the days above and below. And then what we've done is we've actually, what I did is actually removed all the data above that line. So I actually removed that data, and then this is just the data of the bottom 50% of the data set. And then what I did is I did another, it's called an, you could call it an iterative, uh, median quantile regression. So, essentially, you know, you're finding again, now, the the midpoint of this bottom 50% of the data set. And so.

>> The reason why this is valuable is essentially what you're doing is you're saying, okay, what's the trend for the bottom 50%? Right? The bottom 50%, um, over time seems to be more stable. This is more, you could say the power law, you know, part of the data set or whatever. But it's essentially, um, it's, it's a very stable and very consistent, uh, the bottoms are are, uh, have actually followed very similar patterns, you know, the tops are a little bit harder to model. But essentially, with this, you get a, with this line, by creating this, um, this median quantile regression line here, I'm basically saying, you know, there's 50% of the data, 50% above and below for the bottom 50% of the data set. So, in this case, it's 25% below, 25% above. And so the reason why this is useful is this, this line now, taking into account 50% of the data, it's a very useful trend line that we can actually take, and then we can basically, um, you know, use it, and we can, we can then pinpoint different parts of the data set because for, for me, when you're doing quantile regression, you want to have a shared slope for sections of the data because otherwise, there's a potential for crossing of quantiles like way out into the future. So I like this is a very clean way of doing it where you essentially say, okay, here's my trend line for the bottom 50%. And now what I'm going to do is take that, and we can move that up and down, um, to essentially assess, you know, you can basically take the same slope and intercept, it's called, of that line, and then we can say, okay, but let's move it down so that only 5% of the data is below it, or 10% of the data is below it, or whatever we want to do. So this is, and and it's based on again, a lot of data, and this is a median regression line, and the the thing about quantile regression and median regression is it's robust to outliers. So it actually statistically is a very good way of doing it. It's better than, in my opinion, than doing a, a med, uh, mean regression, which is, anyways, we don't need to go on the statistic stuff as much.

>> No, go ahead. But I think it's interesting because because the, maybe use why you find it, uh, better, like what's the benefit of doing.

>> So, so a media, just to keep it super simple, the median quantile regression, what it's, um, what it's so good at, again, you can't do this with other types of regressions, like it, it's able to basically, uh, you can pinpoint exactly how much data you want below, above, and below the line, uh, the regression line. But also, um, it doesn't overly emphasize outliers. So if you have, you know, data that is just a random outlier, it doesn't, uh, skew the data set. It, it really focuses on the core trend. So I would say it's, it's exceptionally good at capturing the core trend and just kind of being, uh, less, less affected by noise or outliers in the data. And and again, by using as much data as we are and using a quantile regression line, I just feel it's, it's the most, um, solid way to create these trend lines. And so, basically, we have, you know, the main trend line, which is the middle of the data set, and now we have this, you know, iterative bottom, uh, line that we've now drawn, where we have 25% of the overall data set above and below it. So, yeah, that's basically, um, it's a combination of steps to get to the model. You'll see, but we're getting, we're getting.

>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No, we're, we're, we're, we're going through the steps. I'm trying to look up. Uh, I don't know if you've ever heard that, but, um, I, I find it really cool that you use the hourly data, right? So you have so many, uh, data points. Um, I don't know if you've heard, like, you know, most of the Bitcoin gains are made in like, I'm going to say, 10 days in a cycle. I don't know if it's 10 or could be less, right? But, um, maybe you know the real number, but like.

>> Yeah, it is important to use hourly data in my opinion. It's not easy to get hourly data, but it is useful. Um, and the reason why is because ultimately, you know, when we are kind of, um, closer to the peaks, I mean, to me, trying to sell the exact peak, that's really not what it's about. It's, it's about, um, you know, kind of for the people that want to sell a percentage of their Bitcoin or whatever, you can ladder out kind of around the peak. So, um, but the price does potentially move pretty quickly. At least that's what we've seen historically. And so having access to hourly data just gives us more updates on where we are within the data set. And it's just also, um, I just, it's just more data. It's, it's quite a bit more data. You got 24 times more. So, um, and like, and like you said, right? I mean, um.

>> You know, there's, uh, the gains are are in a, a relatively small period, period of time historically. So, um, it's good to have that granularity for all the data within those periods. So when we are looking at the top, you know, 5% of the data set, we still have a significant amount of data, um, that way by using hourly data. So that's basically the reason.

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>> Yeah. Yeah. No, that's that's exactly why I said like the granularity because there aren't just that many days, right? And it's so I had to laugh. You said I have 24 times more data. I said, "Oh, wow." But then I was like, "Yeah, of course there's."

>> Well, no. I mean, but, but it, it, I, I for me, too, it's the same thing. I was like looking, I'm like, "Okay, I have the data set. Okay, 6,000 something data points." I'm like, "Okay, that's pretty good. Daily is pretty good." And then I I did the hourly. I'm like, 130 something thousand data points. I'm like.

>> Of course, I mean, it's 24 times more. But it just didn't click to me how much more data it really is. Like, when you're downloading the file and stuff, you're like, okay, this is this is more data. So.

>> Yeah, it's definitely a big jump.

>> And then from there, you can actually even go to 10-minute data, which I had access to in the past, but I actually don't think there's a big difference there. I actually think hourly is kind of, in my opinion, anyways. Everyone, everyone have their own opinions. I think it's better than 10-minute for this use case. Um, 10-minute, you can actually start to get affected more by too much granularity, too much potential noise. So, um, and it's not as accurate on the 10-minute sometimes. So, anyways, the hourly is kind of the the Goldilock zone for me. Um, yeah, and then the next chart here. So, so what I've done now is, um, we take that, uh, from the last chart, uh, just to explain it. We take that, um, that now that trend fit for the bottom 50% of the data, and I actually take that, and I, and I actually, I know this sounds crazy, but I basically use that, um, that slope and intercept to to make 999 fits. So the reason why is, or sorry, um, sorry, 500, 500 fits. And the, and the reason why is because at every 0.1 quantile, I actually have a line drawn all the way from 0.1 all the way up to 0.5, uh, 0.01, I should say, um, anyways, but basically, uh, 0.1% of the data all the way up to 50%. So there's actually 500 fits in the bottom 50% of the data set using that exact, um, regression line, but then we move it up and down so that we can have that way, the lines will never cross. There's never, some people say like, oh, quant regression, you'll have crossing. Not when you use a global slope. It's actually a very good statistical way to do it because there's no chance you'll ever have crossing of these lines because they're basically, there, it's a family of fits, you from all the way from, uh, 0.1, uh, percent all the way up to 50% of the data. We have 500 fits now. And that way we can pinpoint exactly where we are within the data set using that. And so what you're seeing here now on this chart, I did that last step, and then I basically, um, I actually took that same fit, and I actually used it on the 0.5 quantile regression line. So I actually overrode that first fit because this, the new fit, I wanted to say, okay, from there, what I want to do now that I have this, this trend for the bottom 50% of the data set. From there, I want to analyze the top 50%. Right? That's the next step naturally. Okay, we understand the bottom 50%. We have a really good trend. We, we've created all our our 500 fits, and then from there, now we want to look at the top half. And so I basically replace that, that initial median fit with the, the new one because it's actually the right way to do it. It's just a, it's just a better statistical way to do it. And then because otherwise, the top 50% of the data is actually influencing that initial fit. I don't know if that makes sense, but that initial, uh, line we had through the, the very first chart,

>> That's that's the middle fit of the top and the bottom half,

>> Right? So, it's being influenced by the outliers on the top. So, even though it's a median quantile regression, I talked about it being robust to outliers, there still is an influence to a degree of of of incorporating that top 50. So, I instead use the actual trend from the bottom half to create that line again in the middle. So actually recreate this line now using the trend from the bottom half. It's, it's, it's a detail thing. It people don't need to understand that. It's just like, I'm all, all to say is that every step of the way, I'm looking to optimize this model. Like, it's, it's just the best way to do it. And so what this is, is actually multiples if people understand. So it's, it's multiples versus the trend line. So now we have the, we've redrawn the mean. So that, that middle line from the first image, we, we have that now. And from there, we can actually look at a ratio. So how many times do we go above that line, and and a ratio. And so a ratio of one would be the trend line, right? If, if we go, if, if the price went twice as high back in whatever time period, that would be a ratio of two. So that those numbers on the left you're seeing, those are the ratios versus the trend line since the very beginning of Bitcoin. And so you can see that first peak, right? We went up to like 28 times. So the price was 28 times higher than the trend line, than that, than that median regression. And you can see, you know, as 2013 went to about 15, uh, 2018, or 2017, at the end of 2017, '18, you know, it's, it's hard to see exactly, but it was like maybe eight or seven. So there's a clear trend of diminishing returns. I mean, people can deny it, but it's visually apparent. I mean, it's just the fact of of what it is. Um, but, um, so yeah, that, that's basically it. So you have one is the, um, is the trend line on this, on this chart, and you can just visually see how high we've gone above the trend, um, uh, which is the middle of the day. I said, how high we've gone above it since the beginning, and you can see it visually, that's basically, um.

>> So what are your thoughts, I guess visually seeing that, I don't know if you've ever seen.

>> When I look at this, it seems, I don't know, my translation, if I look at the bottom right, would be we are going sideways, but slightly below or slightly above. But the, just from my eye, like the, um, that we could still go quite a bit higher until we're still lower than the previous one, basically around the, the one around like 2021, basically. So, um, my translation here would be, um, uh, and that's kind of the sentiment I'm seeing also like on, on on X, is that the real bull run isn't really like, isn't really here. This is more like a sideways type.

>> Yeah, bull crab. We're in like a, a light, a light bull crab market or something. Yeah. I mean, and, and.

>> I would agree with that, but also, um, just looking back, I mean, let's just think about things logically. So, if we had the multiple that we had back in in the initial peak, or let's just use 2013. So, so for that one, say it went, let's just say 15 times, right?

>> So, if the trend line right now, um, I believe, let me just double check where we are. So, if the trend line right now is around, uh, it's 100, it's a bit over 100K, or or yeah, it's around 100K, I believe. So that would be.

>> And the price at recording is 116. So, you know, slight, slightly above.

>> Exactly.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah. We're above the trend line. So, but the trend line, say it's just as a simple math, say it's at 100, roughly speaking, right now, the trend line.

>> So that's kind of like fair value, you could argue, or whatever. If we had the same blow-off peak we had at the first one, that means Bitcoin would get to 2.6 million this year. Do you understand? Or or sorry, 2013, let's use, I said 2013. So that peak we had, that second peak got to 16 times the trend line. So that would be 1.6 million. So for us to have an equivalent peak as far as, um, over like, um, exuberance or or parabolic top, or, you know, however you want to define it, euphoria, we'd have to get to 1.6 million. For us to equal what we did, um, last 2017, we'd have to get to say, roughly 800,000. And then, um, you know, I, I can't see exactly, but but say 4 or 500, uh, for last cycle's peak. Um, so that kind of puts things in perspective, right? Like these, these are huge peaks that we saw in the past. Like we went way above trend line, right? So we don't have to go insane above trend line to still have great returns. But I mean, for this pattern to break, we would have to probably go well over 500,000 this year, right? So, and it could happen. I mean, everything's possible. I just, the patterns aren't showing that, but that is, um, yeah, I don't know what your thoughts are, but.

>> Well, yeah, this is exactly, um, where kind of my conceptual understanding of Bitcoin clashes with the math, right? So I would say that the more people understand why Bitcoin exists, why they should have Bitcoin, why they should hold it over any other financial asset, as Bitcoin is superior, um, you know, I would, I would logically conclude that at some point, um, there will be this, uh, short squeeze or or like supply shock, right? Just again.

Just because I think the demand will grow and the supply will slowly, um, dry up, uh, because, yeah, I mean, I don't know about you, but I always say, like, sell for what? Like, what, what should I sell it for, right? So, I, I, I do understand that there are a lot of like old OGs that have thousands of coins, right? And they would be selling. I mean, yes, I also agree to that, but, you know, if not this year, then maybe, maybe in 2030 or something, right? Like, at some point, conceptually, I do think there's, there's going to be this, this clash, right?

But then on the other hand, looking at this, um, yeah, this also kind of looks like a trend, right? Like, my only counterargument to some degree here would be, you know, this is only the fourth cycle. You know what I'm saying? Which is a fair, which is a fair argument. I mean, I would say that would be my only argument. Yeah. And it, and again, like, it's not like it would be completely impossible for this pattern to break. I mean, like you said, it's only so many cycles. Um, so that's completely fair. Um, and of course, I would welcome that. I mean, if, but I, I do believe there would be an element of the US dollar having to lose its stability for that to occur. Um, but, yeah, I mean, it's, it's an interesting conversation.

I mean, couple, couple things. Um, I do agree with you that even, even though a lot of people are starting to understand that, you know, as far as all the options out there, Bitcoin, you know, what else are you going to hold? Like, once you start really understanding Bitcoin. The thing I would say, though, is as the price goes up, for everyone that does sell, you do need, uh, more capital coming in, right? You do need a higher amount of capital coming in. So that's why I celebrate when large amounts of Bitcoin are sold at lower prices because I would rather have a ton of money selling at $100,000 versus the same Bitcoin selling at a million because that, so people understand like when, when they, when you have these announcements, "Oh, whatever, some whale is cashing out 10,000 Bitcoin or whatever." That's awesome. That's great because we know Bitcoin's going higher. And if they hold, if that, if that whale holds, you know, uh, to a million, it now takes 10 times more capital to get that person out of the market because they will sell eventually.

I mean, yes, there are going to be, uh, vehicles to borrow against your Bitcoin. I think that will, uh, be another X factor in the future and, and, um, we're not really there yet, but we're, you know, it's, it's trending in that direction, of course. But I, I would also say like, even as scarce as Bitcoin is, time is scarcer. Time is, I call it unknown scarcity. So Bitcoin's known scarcity, time is unknown scarcity. No one knows how much time they have left in this reality. So, um, because of that, I actually think time is more valuable than Bitcoin. Um, and so personally, I think that if someone, you know, got in super early to Bitcoin, it's actually a little bit irresponsible in a lot of ways to hold all your Bitcoin forever. And the reason why I would say that is because you don't know how much time you have. And so it doesn't, it doesn't have to be a binary thing where you sell all your Bitcoin or you sell none of your Bitcoin. But I do think, you know, for people that got in super early, it starts to become just a mathematical equation where you say, "Look, this is going to change my life. I could go on life-changing or, or, um, uh, memories I'll have forever with my family." You know, the, these moments that are more valuable than any, any asset. So to be able to change your life in a very meaningful way and to be able to, uh, maximize the time we have with the people we love, those are great use cases. It's not like you're going to go buy some stock. I, I think that's kind of silly. But if, um, but if you are going to cash out a percentage of Bitcoin, I also think it's silly to sell everything, but that's just my opinion. I'm not giving any financial advice. But, you know, to, to sell some of it at some point for the people that got in early, it just makes sense. I mean, you can do stuff that in your life with the people you love, like I already said, that you'll have forever. And, and to me, that's, that's very, um, yeah, it's just that, that's how I look at it anyways. Um, but I totally understand the ethos of just hold it all forever, right? But, um, yeah, I, I just think inevitably people will sell, people will hit targets, and, and that's why I don't think Bitcoin, you know, the scarcity thing is a bit overblown. Uh, some people might not like to hear that. Is my view is because at a certain price, if Bitcoin was $100 million tomorrow, everyone's selling. I mean, your life is completely changed. Like you, like, I mean, most people are going to sell something. Like, if it's a million tomorrow, most people are going to sell something. So at a certain price, OGs and people that got in will, will sell. Like, people hit targets, you know, whatever. And also emergencies happen in life, bills come, whatever, like you can't be. So anyways, that's a, that's a whole other long conversation.

I mean, I, I agree with that and I also think that that is what people are doing. Maybe while we're talking, I came up with another argument and I wonder, I wonder, uh, what you think of that because on the, on the flip side, I still think we are very early. Like, I don't know about you, but I, I, I don't believe there's 100 million Bitcoin holders in the US. Like, when everyone talks about that, right? Like, I, I, no, no, not, not with a meaningful amount, no. And, and not exactly have an, maybe they have an exchange with like dust in it or something or whatever they own. Yeah. But like the amount that you, that would be enough for you to sell 20% when it hits like 250k or something, right? Right. So there is a lot of people from back in the day that have thousands of coins, right? And so, um, those will definitely cash in to some degree to, to buy time. I fully agree with that. So if you go with the idea that I don't know, maybe in the entire world, right? Even if there's 50 million people that hold a significant amount of Bitcoin, that they would sell a percentage at a certain point, that is still very small in adoption, right? Uh, I cannot do the calculation quickly, but so I'm thinking about this, right? So what we're seeing here, wait, I'll, I'll show this first. Is okay, so we are growing, but the growth is slowing to a degree, right? And you can say, okay, that is because you need more money to actually move the market cap, right? But at the same time, we're also seeing that these hollow waves, right? So the amount of time that that coins don't move is also slowly creeping up, right? So I think, three years is mid-50s percent. I think between 55 and 60%, which I think is a lot, right? Three years, imagine. So all the one year is really high, but yeah. Yeah, three years.

Okay, but, but, but I'm saying three years because then you went through this, this, this, this bare market, right? You went, a lot down, now a lot up. I mean, those are the people like you and me that understand what this is, right? And that are also thinking about, okay, but sell for what? Like, what if I, well, if I know this model, if I know the power law model, this is up forever, right? So, um, okay, so in this one, we see growth, but it's slowing down. We see the hotter waves going up. And then I'm thinking because you mentioned network, I had to think about, you know, a lot of people, um, or like Chris Kyper or, uh, Yurian Timmer, like these Fidelity guys, uh, that talk about S-curve adoption, um, which is usually seen in, uh, social networks. Yeah. Yes. And so networks, technological products, etcetera, right? But we have this, uh, point which is the chasm, uh, you know. So, we, so I'm thinking, I, I just came up with the argument, but I wonder what you think is that when you look at this, maybe we are around here because this, this is a battle, right? Like crossing the chasm from, um, early adopters to early, early majority is a battle like in a lot of, um, technologies or or social platforms or whatever, like this is, this is where a lot of products die, basically, because they cannot make, make that jump. And so if we are somewhere around here, um, sorry, where you're pointing, I'm just trying to see where you're pointing on the, Oh, sorry. So if we're somewhere around like before, Oh, yeah. You don't see my cursor, but like somewhere before the chasm, basically. Yeah. Um, that's a struggle, that's a point. I think we're actually past the. Yeah, I think we are. I think this, I don't, I think, I think just past it, or, or you could say going through it. You could say, or before it. I mean, you could argue before it, of course. I'm not saying I'm right. I'm, I'm saying you could make an argument before, after, during the chasm. For sure. I think we're around that, around that point though. I agree with you. I would, that's why I'm saying maybe that is why it is slowing. That that would be my point in this argument that I just came up with is this is a chaos. This is a, a battle type period in a sense, fighting for, um, yeah, basically the life of this technology in a sense, as in any technology, right? So this is a universal model. Yeah, it's like the, the make it or break it moment. I mean, exactly.

It's, it's entirely possible. I mean, I would say the, the fight now, you could define it in different ways, but this cycle, what I've kind of personally, the way I look at the cycle to summarize it in a lot of ways is there's a lot of people with a ton of conviction of Bitcoin. There, there really are at this point. I think we've hit a level. I mean, just because of the amount of institutions, MicroStrategy, obviously seeing a company acquire, you know, 600,000 plus Bitcoin. I mean, that, that's the kind of stuff that the traditional kind of minded people just, you can't ignore that. Like, you have these, these significant companies, um, with high market caps that are starting to acquire a lot of Bitcoin. So, and there's a lot of smaller ones for sure, but they're growing their, their market caps are growing as they adopt Bitcoin. So, so they're becoming bigger and bigger players in the stock market. But I mean, there's, there's been enough voices, you know, Michael Sailor on on a mainstream. So like, and, and the president's stuff and the, you know, and, and all this stuff about stockpiles and, uh, you know, different countries adopting. There's kind of the, the beginning stages of that. But, so because of that, I would say, you know, we've have, um, we have a lot of big players that are soaking up the old OG sellers. So, as we've gone up this cycle, we've kind of stairstepped up. We spent long correction periods. It's actually been more about correcting in time, so to speak, where, you know, you're just kind of, we've been sideways to down for for months and, and people get kind of bored or whatever, some people. So, they're not really in pain. It's not like, oh, we're down. Bitcoin's down 50% like it might have been back in, uh, whatever, 2017 runup. Bitcoin's down 40% overnight and then it bounces back and then it crashes a few months or a week later, whatever. Now, it's more about these longer consolidation periods where essentially Bitcoin's like, "Okay, at this period, there's a certain amount of OGs that got in so early that they're looking to take some profits off the table. They're not selling all their Bitcoin. I don't think all these OGs are just cashing out everything, but I think there's so much capital they have in Bitcoin that they're naturally selling a percentage at different price levels. And as they sell and release that, I mean, the good thing what we're seeing is we're seeing enough big companies and, and high net worth individuals and also just conviction from retail that's slow, that's soaking up that that selling sell pressure. Now, it's a bit of a battle. It takes months. We kind of go sideways, but ultimately we've seen so far this cycle, we've eventually stairstepped up to the next level. And so every, and so it's very healthy. I mean, this to me, this is the healthiest bull run by far. I mean, there's a lot of positive things I could say. I'm, I'm definitely not a bear by any means. I mean, if I come across as a mathematical bear somehow, I don't want that to be the case, but whatever. It's people are going to perceive you how they're going to perceive you. I'm presenting the data, but I'm a super bull on Bitcoin and, and I mean, how can you not be at this point, right? So, for me, this, this cycle has been super healthy and, um, really, I mean, I love to see this consolidation at different price levels for months, um, because we're building strong foundation and we're, and I don't think we're going to see the 80% drop we've seen in a lot of the previous cycles. I'm actually thinking probably more in the, in the four, probably 50% 50, 60% range is probably, it's hard to say, but like I could see that, um, just because we have built support all the way along this bull market so far and we're still going to have the probably the blow-off top period. Like, I, I don't see us consolidating for months and then all of a sudden we just completely crash 80%. Like that's probably not what's going to happen. Um, although there are different types of peaks. You can have a parabolic blow-off peak where where you really steep up and steep down. That's what we saw in 2013 and 2017. Now, in 2021, we did have a bit of more of a Wyckoff distribution top, it's called where there's kind of some fake-outs and we actually traded for like, I think it was two months or so, uh, relatively around the peak and, and a lot of people thought we were going higher and then we eventually did collapse. So, um, but, uh, but yeah, I mean, it's simply put, this cycle, I mean, I, I do think Bitcoin has reached a point where it's, it's, I mean, whether it's just the beginning of the chasm or we just passed it. Either way, um, it's become very accepted. You know, it, there's nothing, I mean, what's the, what's the major, uh, FUD we've heard this cycle? I mean, every cycle there's FUD, but what's the like really crazy FUD you've heard this cycle about Bitcoin? Like, why is Bitcoin going to go to zero? Like, I think there's, I think there's, that's, that's, okay. Okay, that's a fair one. That, that is, but, but I think that's probably, yeah, I guess, you know, that's something, like, that's the biggest, and the rest is all recycled 2017. Yeah, I think that's the only one, that I'm seeing. Yeah, to me, that's the only one that has, I mean, I'm not an expert on quantum, so I can't really speak to that, but, but at least as a narrative, I think that's the only one that can kind of rival where Bitcoin's currently at as far as it adoption, market cap. It would take something catastrophic, something that, you know, and so, yeah, we don't need to talk about that, but, and I think that's a very low probability, and other people could speak to that better, but besides that, I really don't see any like, uh, every other cycle, there was kind of like this discount that Bitcoin could go to zero potentially, but at this point, I think it's really hard to make that argument. I really do. Um, people can try, but I mean, you just, there's, it's just not, you're going to have to use a lot of logical fallacies. I, I don't see really an argument for it at this point. So, um, because of that, during the bare markets, I mean, there's that, there's not that discount of Bitcoin could go to zero. And so, just like we're seeing the diminishing returns of the peak, we're also seeing diminishing returns, um, to a degree in, in the pullbacks during the bare market. And I think this cycle, we'll see an even bigger one. It's just my, my theory anyways. But, yeah.

Yeah. So this is, so we, we went through your steps, right? And this is the end result, basically. This is the end result. Um, there's a couple more steps that I, I we didn't include in slides here, but I can quickly try to explain them simply and talk through them. So, um, that last chart we, we saw where you can see kind of each cycle, the the ratios or the multiples versus the trend line are going down. What you can actually do is create something that's called, uh, a stretched exponential decay. So, I, I looked at a lot of different ways to model the peaks. And, uh, stretched exponential decay, it's called, is the, um, actually the, um, it's, it's just the most accurate way to model it. I mean, if someone could finds a better way, that's, that's awesome. I'd love to see it. I, I've really spent a crazy amount of time looking into all the different ways you can model it. Um, actually the way I do it is I'm, I actually model it, uh, with an exponential decay and a stretched exponential decay. So I do both, uh, during the code, and then what it does is it actually, um, assesses which is a better fit. So I'm not actually even attached to one of the two. I want to use whichever is best out of the two. Um, they're kind of, uh, cousins, you could say. Um, exponential decay, to put it very simply, is essentially, you know, it's, it's consistent decay rate. So every, every, uh, X amount of time, so every say year, as a just, or say every four years, whatever, 50% reduction in the peaks, that would be exponential. So it's consistently 50%. Now, the thing about something going down 50%, is eventually it flattens out, right? Just the way that pattern works. You know, people also call it like a half-life, but essentially exponential decay actually models Bitcoin's peaks fairly well. And there are other analysts that have done work on this, like Smidstston. Smithston did some phenomenal work. He was the first person I, I came across that was doing exponential decay fitting of the peaks, and it works well. It could be the actual best way to model it, but I did find stretched exponential decay is better. Um, just, just when you, when you look at something called, uh, BIC, which is a way of assessing complexity, so the, keep it simple, the stretched exponential decay has one more variable, um, but even factoring in that complexity, it's still a better fit. It's still a better model. So essentially, we take that stretched exponential decay fit, and then, B, what I did here is I did, um, I actually take the top 1% of the data. So it's 1,300, um, hours of data, right? Which I equates to how many days is that? Because you were asking me before, the top 1%. So, um, Oh, I don't have my, uh, uh, roughly, I, I can't, my, uh, how many hours do you have? 1,300 hours. Yeah, I can't click on my computer right now. 130,000. Uh, sorry, 1,300 hours would be, that's the top 1% of the data. And so divide, divide that by 24. 54 days. Yeah. Okay. So it's basically, we're looking at the, I, I isolate the top 54 days. So it's still a significant amount of time. This is essentially the period around all the peaks. So if you take those 54 days and you look at the full history of Bitcoin, those have been the most parabolic periods throughout Bitcoin's history. So we're, we're looking at and assessing the most, um, extreme outliers, you could say, or the most parabolic moments throughout Bitcoin. It's kind of like a snapshot of those, those events. So that top 1%, I basically take that based on the ratios and, and doing the stretched exponential decay fit, and then from there, I did a median quantile regression of, uh, median stretch exponential decay quantression of that top 1%. So just like, remember at the second chart, where we kind of did a, a median fit of the bottom 50% and we got like, you know, 25% below, 25% above for the top half, I isolate that top 1% because that's what we're most interested in, and, and it's still enough data that you can, you can actually get meaningful statistical results. And so you take that top 1%, you, you find the middle of that, and that's your trend. And then by, and then I use that trend to actually do what I did with the bottom 50%. Where I take that trend, I keep that same slope, and then I find all those points of another, another 500 fits for the top half. Anyways, I know it's a lot of statistics, a lot, a lot to explain, but the end result is this. And, and I do personally believe, obviously, you know, I created it, so I'm kind of biased, but I, I know how much effort and time went into it. And I also, there's other great analysts like Cena, who contributed to it, um, Smithston, as well, um, Giovani, Giovani, obviously with, with observing the power law, as well. So this is, this to me is, um, as much as I kind of was the person that spent the most time on it and, and put it out there, there's a lot of people that contributed to it in various ways. So really, some of the best minds in the space, it's not like this is just me. There, there's a group of analysts, um, most of them with PhDs that really, um, would say that, you know, validate this, basically. Um, and so the really cool, cool thing about this as far as its value, I mean, just to explain it, uh, people looking at it here, the top right corner, what that number represents is the quantile we're currently at based on, uh, I updated this actually, um, uh, yesterday, uh, is when the data cut off. So, uh, full screen here. So, 117, uh, $0.6,000. So, that price in US dollars equates to say the 70, uh, 72, uh, quantile. So that gives us an idea of where we are within the data set. You can kind of visually look at it, but that number on the top right is is telling us, okay, 72, we're at 72. What does that mean? What does that number represent? That means 28, 28% of of the historic hours since the Genesis block, we were more overheated. We were more away, like we were, um, relatively speaking, when factoring in diminishing returns and all the math, we were higher than this level. And, and 72% of the time we've actually been below this point. So getting close to 3/4 of the time we've actually been, um, below, and, and a quarter above. But, um, and then you can see the different bands and what they represent. So that bottom band, I call it base camp. It's, it's kind of a mountaineering theme, right? So the bottom, uh, dark blue band, that's base camp. So that's the first quantile to the 20th quantile. And so that, that's what that band represents across the whole, and you can see like all the lows, you know, kind of bottoms of the bare market. We always come down to that lower blue band. And, um, that's the, the bottom 20% of the days, uh, essentially. And that's where Bitcoin, um, that's kind of like the, uh, the floor, you could call it, or the power law-term trend. Um, and, um, so, yeah, I call that base camp. Above that, low, low mountain, which is like 20 to 40. It's just a fun way to to kind of visualize it. So you're kind of, you're kind of leaving base camp. Okay, we're at the like lower end of the, of the mountain or whatever, right? So that's the, the little bit lighter blue there. And you can also see on the, um, the bottom there, you can see kind of corresponding prices based on what quantile we're at, and then based on the, the period, right? Yeah. So the far left, you can see August 17th. So that was yesterday, and then, uh, three months from now, November 17th. So it goes three months, and then you can see, you know, what is it in three months? What are all the, the levels at in three months? Another three months, February, right? Maybe the market extends, or maybe the cycle extends to next year. Okay, those are the numbers there, and it goes out a full year into the future. And then I also showed, uh, January 1st, 2030 for people that are, you know, really just focused on the long term. I, I kind of felt like it was good to go out five years. You, I could go out longer, I could go out 10, 15, but I, I think it's best to, um, there's kind of a rule in in statistics where depending on how much data you have, you can kind of model out a certain distance. And so given that we have about 15, 16 years of data, it's, it's, um, responsible to model out five years, not necessarily responsible to model out 10 or 15 years, at least in my opinion. But this gives us, Yeah, I don't know what your thoughts are on on everything here, but, yeah.

Um, so correct me if I'm wrong, but if I'm reading this, so you know, we're basically never going below 50k again, is is one thing, how I translate it. I don't know if that's, if that's a correct way to to say it, or like, uh, because the majority of time, you know, 99% we would be above that. And then the top ones are basically kind of like peak predictions. Is that how I can say that? Yeah. Yeah. Uh, exactly. I mean, um, so as far as the probability of going to 50K, I mean, that depends on when we go there. Um, if we were to go there tomorrow, it's still possible, right? I mean, I don't think we're going to, to be clear, but if for whatever reason the cycle's over and, and we go down to the first quantile, okay, it's at $47,000, right? So, that's kind of worst-case scenario. And, and the thing is, like, even during the bare, even during the bare markets, we don't necessarily get down to the first quantile, and there's no guarantee we'll ever get down to the first quantile. This is a range of probabilities. This is not deterministic. This is basically giving you the probabilistic range based on the full data set, giving you, you know, relatively speaking, where we are within the data. So, I mean, we don't have to go down to the one ever again. And, and even if you look back at like, say, 2015, 2016, you see how we never really went down to those lower quantiles. It actually wasn't until the COVID crash that that's what that, it was actually a black swan. Usually, it's black swans that bring us down to those bottom quantiles. Like, if you look at the FTX collapse there. Yeah. The FTX collapse, Luna collapse. It took so many collapses and, and extreme, you know, you could argue gray or black swan events last cycle to bring us ultimately down to the, the first quantile. Same with COVID, you know, same with, I guess, we, we did get there in, uh, in the 2014, uh, market. Um, I got confused between 2018 and 2014, but, but anyways, you can see it there visually. I mean, there's no guarantee to get to those lower quantiles, just, just, but similarly, there's no guarantee to get to the upper quantiles. Now, we have got to those upper quantiles every single cycle. We have got to that top 5% every single time. We actually got there twice last cycle. So, um, you know, the pattern so far is four times of getting there. It doesn't mean we will get there, but I think there's a decent probability we'll get to the top 5% of the data set. Now, will we get to the top 99.9? No idea. No, no way of knowing that. Nobody knows that because those are events that, that's based on human emotion. That's based on news events. That's really based on a lot of FOMO, most likely. Um, you know, there, but we are having a pretty healthy upwards trajectory. So, maybe we get there in a more healthy way this cycle. I mean, it's completely possible if the cycle extends potentially. There's a lot of ways it could play out, but relatively speaking, you know, we're at 72. Um, most of the gains are in that top 10%, 5%. So, just because we're at 72 doesn't mean, oh, oh, no, there's only 28% of the gains left this cycle. No, it doesn't work that way. The majority of the gains are towards those top quantiles. So, you know, people can sell whenever they want. Um, and it's probably, if you do want to sell, you want to ladder out. But the thing is, um, you know, even if we're at 72, we're, we're not at like 95 or 98. There's a big difference there, and there's a lot of gains still left. So that's kind of how, and you can see that visually on the, on the, on the, on the chart. So, um, just as an example, a lot of people think we'll peak this year. If we follow the four-year cycle, uh, you know, that would that would mean, so, so November 17th, right, three months from now, um, the very top, 0.1% so that's a very small percentage of the data, that's, um, you know, 0.1% uh, basically, we've only been above that, I guess, 130 day, 130 hours, right? So that top 0.1% is really 130 hours, the most extremes of the extreme peaks. So, so to get to that, um, that's, uh, $254k in in November. Uh, but there's a range there from 190 to 250. So I think it's a reasonable range, like, um, if we do peak, say, and towards the end of this year, anywhere between 180 and 260, you know, 190 and 260, somewhere in that range, if we get to that top 5%, seems like a reasonable, uh, number. Think about it, if we d, basically, we're going to have to, so say we double between now and the end of the year, right? Like, that's a lot of capital coming in. I mean, given that we have a over a two trillion market cap, I know that, you know, it's not necessarily dollar for dollar, money coming in doesn't equate to price going up if people aren't selling. You know, you can have a multiplier there. So, it does, we don't need two trillion dollars to come in. Um, but we still need significant capital to double the market cap. And so, yeah, I mean, lots of ways to to talk about it here. Um, I guess as a long-term holder, like, what's, what's your thoughts on just on some of the targets? I mean, the 20, 2030 target, uh, anywhere between 540 and 650, uh, for the top 5%. Um, but look at that bottom, look at that 1%. I mean, the bottom one, first quantile, we're at 190, right? So, yeah, I don't know, uh, diminishing volatility, but yeah, what's your, what's your thoughts? I find it interesting that the jump between 96k in the, in the 20% in, in 26. So one year from now, and then four years later is, uh, uh, almost a 3x. So August 17th, 26 to January 1st, 2030. So I think that illustrates for me the, only 3x, but dollar-wise, a big amount, right? Yeah. And that's only for the peaks, like, I mean, I guess, um, I mean, in the blue on the bottom right, just the 20% uh, or you say then 80%, right? Oh, I see what you're talking about. Sorry about that. Yeah, you're talking about 67 to 190 or 189. Yeah. No, the 96 to 272, basically, like that is a, Oh, right. Okay. That is a, uh, that is only 3x higher on the, on the low end, right? On the floor, but, you know, dollar-wise, that's a, that's a big amount. So, yeah, of course, over time, the multipliers are less. What happens, but the amount denominated in dollars, obviously, is is bigger. So I find that interesting. I'm still thinking, okay, so there are different people that hold Bitcoin, right? So, we are long-term holders. There are people that say like, "Oh, you can use the math." I think Giovanni, for example, uh, talks about how can you get in high, then follow the math, and then, or get out high, and then follow the math, and then get, get back in, um, lower. So, maybe to ask you, you know, how do you think people could use this to either do that, or perhaps build stronger conviction? So, when I look at this as a long-term holder, uh, the trend is clearly up, right? Um, I think for me, after 10 years in Bitcoin, you know, up, up and down, up and down, that crazy stomach-turning 80, 85% drops, um, uh, I'm, I'm, I'm happy that you also agree that it will be less. I also think it'll be less. 50% would still be hard to stomach. Although this, I think helps to see that over a longer time frame, uh, my, my Bitcoin thesis, uh, is probably still correct, you know, and I should still chill and, and huddle, basically. Um, so I think that is something that helps me if I think about how, um, to then, yeah, maybe put numbers on it to comfort myself when it goes down. Basically, I think just reading this chart is something that, um, uh, perhaps would be interesting to, to maybe, um, maybe share for people that want to see how they can make it practical for for themselves in whatever their strategy is.

Yeah. And, and again, uh, for me, it really does, like, the primary purpose is long-term conviction for me personally. Um, you know, just to have that really zoomed out perspective, even though this cycle, I've been really relaxed the whole time. Up. If there is a period that comes where my conviction is tested to any degree, because I'm human, I have emotions, you know, um, this helps. It just, it's a good tool to really zoom out and say, like, look, we're on track. Long-term trend is intact. Nothing out of the ordinary is occurring. This is short-term, you know, uh, this is the range. I can also, uh, stomach, I can kind of like brace myself for worst-case scenarios if there's a black swan and say, okay, we could go down to here potentially and still be within the, the model. Um, and kind of have a realistic upper reasonable range. Now, um, nothing's guaranteed, of course, but I think having this as a tool. Now, the, the y-axis is in log, as well, just for people that might not have seen log charts as much. So, if they're saying, "Wow, it doesn't look like Bitcoin's going up that steep." I mean, this is logged. So, if you looked at it in linear, it would just be off the chart. You couldn't even really see it. Almost all the charts around Bitcoin we see are in log on the y-axis. So, um, you know, it's, it's, it's up and to the right, but it's also, um, when you, when you squish it with a log y-axis, so it's even more up and to the right than it visually looks. I think most people understand that. Um, so, yeah, I mean, I think it's important to understand your emotions as well. And there's different personality types. So, I won't go into this too much, but there's, there's some people that are naturally optimistic, and some people that are naturally pessimistic, and they both have their pros and cons. It's good to understand your own personality when you're an investor, though. I tend to be on the optimistic side, which is good in some ways because throughout my life, I tend to expect the best things to occur. I tend to be positive. I tend to have a good outlook on the future, but there, there's a susceptibility there where you are biased towards being bullish. And you, and you have to kind of intentionally pull yourself back to a neutral point. Um, and these are tools to do that, at least in my opinion. There's other indicators, of course, and other ways you can do that. But to stay grounded, right? Because, but if someone's, so for somebody who's optimistic, naturally optimistic, they have a harder time selling when the price is high because they think it's going to keep going up. But it's easy to buy when the price is down. I, I bought during the COVID crash. I, I bought a little bit during the FTX collapse near the bottom. So for me, it's super easy to buy at the bottoms. I have a harder time selling at the peaks, and so that's why I've just held the whole time. Um, other people are the opposite. They tend to be more naturally pessimistic. So, they might have a hard time buying Bitcoin because all they see is the negatives. They can't buy when the price is down, but it's easy for them to sell when the price has gone up like halfway through the cycle or whatever they, or, or sell when it's high, right? So, it's good to know your own personality, your own biases. That's all important. Um, as far as use case, I don't promote trading at all. I definitely am, I don't want to be someone who promotes trading. I think there's so many people that get wrecked trying to trade Bitcoin. I think it's silly. I think just hold long term, like, like especially when you see things like this and you understand the math, like why are we trading? I mean, it's, yeah, I think, I think to, to promote this idea of trading Bitcoin, the way I look at it is, is not about trading Bitcoin. So this tool helps me again, long-term conviction. But the other use case for me personally is if I am going to sell a percentage of my Bitcoin, uh, throughout the long-term, you know, upwards trend over the next 5, 10, whatever years, or even longer, um, when I'm going to sell some percentages for, I call them lifestyle chips. So you take some lifestyle chips off the table. I don't do it expecting to get back in lower. I do it that where I'm comfortable and I, and I can kind of assess what kind of value I'm getting. Okay, Bitcoin's at quantile 90. Okay, I'm getting decent value for this. 90% of the time it's been lower. 10% of the time it's been higher. Okay, I take some chips off. I, I buy something meaningful in my life. Um, buy time, or whatever, however you want to define it, but I don't expect to get back in at the bottom. So, I, I never ex, I never, uh, for me personally, I'm not using this as a trading tool. U people could do that. I'm not promoting that. I think it's a conviction tool long term, and it's a tool to assess the value you're getting if you have to sell your Bitcoin. So, say someone for whatever reason has to sell, or they want to sell. Everyone has their own circumstance, their own reasoning. Maybe somebody is is 80 years old and they, they want to take a, a vacation or, or do something, you know, with their family. I mean, at that point, is it good for them to huddle another 30 years? Maybe not. I mean, so life stages is another factor. Um, but, yeah, all of that to say, I mean, uh, it's not a trading, it's not a trading model. It, it's a, it's a giving you, um, based on all the historic data, the best way we can assessing where we are within the historical relative data set, factoring in all the math, diminishing returns, all the things we spoke of. It's kind of giving you a, a, a framework to be like, okay, this is where we're at now. You decide whatever you're going to do with that. I hope that makes, makes some sense.

Yeah. Yeah, definitely. I think, uh, well, short question in between. Do you have like a live dashboard, or do you plan on building something like that, like that there's a way that people can actually go there when they listen to this and then see where we're at today, or? Absolutely. Yeah. I'm going to have it up on a site. It will be free. I'm just going to basically throw it up on a website. It's, it's about 1100, uh, lines of code, and I want to have it so that essentially it's just automatically updating every hour on a, on a site. Um, and I need to like get this out fast. I've been doing other things in my life, but it's like, okay, we're getting closer to potentially some sort of peak over the next year, 16 months, whatever it ends up being, six months, whatever the, whatever the period, I don't know. But, um, I should also say like, I'm cycle length agnostic. So, um, and that's actually a really, that's a, in my opinion, a, um, uh, it's a feature of this model. It's actually doesn't factor in cycle length. So, there are other models, um, that use cycle length as a, as a, as an input. This doesn't. This is cycle length agnostic. This is basically just showing you the bands, how overheated we are. It's not saying, you know, when we're going to peak, the exact day. I think I personally believe that's a little bit of a silly pursuit because we really only have a couple data points for the cycle. So, yes, we followed this kind of four-year pattern, and it absolutely could continue. I'm not saying it won't. It's possible. I mean, there's a lot of psychological bias and people towards potentially, um, you know, that four years. I think some people will sell just because it's four years. I actually put on a poll one time a while ago, and it had a good amount of votes, and there's still a huge percentage of people that expect us to keep doing that four-year cycle. So, um, but this cycle doesn't, doesn't factor in length. It's strictly how overheated we are. So it's cycle length agnostic. So am I. So I look more at what quantile we're at than what day it is. Um, you know, if, if the quantile, if we're only at quantile 75, and it's at the end of the year, uh, maybe, you know, maybe we extend till next year, who knows. Um, so that's kind of more how I see it as far as a place to, to look at this. Yeah, I am going to have it up on a site. You can follow me on my X account for updates, but I will have it on a site and I'll have multiple, uh, being able to zoom in the, so it's, you know, other ways of seeing it. This is the full, full history, but I also want to show like, okay, the next year, you know, the, the last five years, maybe, or whatever, right? Have a couple different versions of this. And, um, and also I want to have it so that, uh, people can put in the day and the quantile, and it will tell them the number. So whatever, so that way you can, and, and this is totally possible to create, I just have to do some coding, but basically you can say January 1st, 2030, 57th quantile, what's the, what's the number? Right? So, it's just kind of like a fun tool, and, and people can do with what they want. But that way you can kind of get more, use it for whatever you want to use it for. But yeah, we'll be on a site for free.

Awesome. Yeah. What I really liked is that you said, you know, if you have to sell, or you think you want to sell, this is a tool where you can check if you are okay with selling at this moment, basically, right? And, and just make that decision by yourself, but then you actually understand where we are, where we are, and, and have a historical perspective, and maybe make a conscious decision now, or say like, okay, I, I can, I can wait for three more months. Exactly. And I'm going to keep, um, this, this, um, this certain time frame, uh, in mind and, and look it up then on your website, right? To kind of time whenever you would want to sell, if you want, or maybe even need to sell. That's, well, that's well said. Yeah. There's like some huge important purchase. I mean, I hate to say this, but I think it's a very, I think a lot of people can relate to this. Sometimes there's, there's, um, every so, so naturally in relationships, a lot of people in relationships, there's.

A there's going to be some push and pull around these sorts of things, right? And so, um you can, you know, potentially a tool to say to show to your partner, guy or girl, whatever. Look, this is the long-term pattern. What do you think? We're in blue right now. Do we want to sell our Bitcoin? Can we hold off a couple more years to buy that dream house or whatever? Wait till we're at least in like the top 50% top, you know? So, I think that's just kind of how I see it, right? Like you could potentially ek out a bit more of a window to kind of hold off on some of those things that people inevitably will buy. Um, so yeah, I think uh that kind of summarizes it decently.

And um uh yeah, I don't know what what other I guess uh for yourself personally. I mean, you you said you're a long-term holder. So, uh this is just strictly a conviction tool for you. Like, do you see yourself I mean, you don't have to share your personal stuff, but would you ever use anything like this to uh if you had something you needed to >> Yeah, I think I think I would use it like how I just uh described it to be honest. So, >> um, and I think definitely now now now that we're moving more towards >> um, >> yeah, this progression of of the cycle, right? I think just uh, I mean today I published an episode with with Nikico Moran where we talked about are the cycles dead, right? Like is there anything that's going to change? I and again I think that kind of bumps heads with what we're talking about here. So I find that very interesting um because yeah you can logically argue a lot of things around cycle being dead you know infinite demand all the things that I said and this is the math so I think having these different types of tools and reasoning can help you to um yeah what I just said see where you're at see how comfortable you are do I want to huddle do I want to sell a bit um and I think also those um yeah those ideas can change over time depending how your life goes or where you're at or what you need to do or whatever, right? So, I I think this is definitely helpful because uh you know in in in >> I don't know when you know I always share I bought between 100 and 300 and I sold at 4,000. I have no clue if 4,000 was a great price. Right. >> Right. and like now I could actually check if I'm okay with selling it in this um uh percentile basic basically and then also feel good about um uh perhaps selling it for something else like a life upgrade or or whatever right so I think I think it's just a very very useful tool to help you uh make a conscious decision about whether you want to sell it or not at this moment so >> yeah some sort of a reference point other than just watching the price every they just bounce up and down and a million TA charts on on X saying we're going up, we're going down, deleting their posts, whatever. Like there's there's so much noise in the chart space as far as people saying, "Oh, we're going to whatever." And then, you know, so um

>> yeah, I mean just just on the cycle thing really quickly because you mentioned it. Um the cycle could be dead and this this model could still hold. That is actually possible. It doesn't require there to be necessarily a cycle. Now, you know, if we just keep going up and to the right steeply, we're probably, you know, going to go out of the range. But if we do kind of stair step up and and and kind of crab sideways for longer periods, but still it's up into the right with not necessarily like a crazy bearish multi-year major pullback, right? That doesn't have to happen uh for this model to still hold because as as time goes on, you know, the numbers we are the patterns are up. So there's different var there's various ways of of creating that pattern of up. You can have these sharp drops, huge bull markets, or you can have more of just a sideways crab to bull that extends for years. And it's not I'm not ruling that out. I don't want to rule out anything. We have very few data points. We're seeing some unique things this cycle um extended uh consolidation periods. So I'm I'm not ruling out anything. The cool thing about quantile regressions and using this type of a model is every single new data point if I'm updating this hourly, it does update. So meaning every data point that comes in is factored in. Now it's one of 130,000 plus data points. So each new data point has relatively small influence. However, the the higher data points might have a little bit more influence of in that in that range. So there are potential um micro adjustments over time, which is what you want. You want it to be somewhat adaptive to new data. So even though you can't use data from the future, you know, people say, well, this is only based on the past data. Well, it's impossible to do any analysis on future data. If you have a time machine or you have a way of of using future data, that's awesome. You'd be the best analyst in the world. But the reality is we only have the data we have, which is the past. And so we we as as the model goes, it will incorporate in new data points. And and I did that intentionally. I wanted it to be dynamic. Um, and but the patterns, you know, again, we already have 15 years plus of data. So, there'll be micro adjustments. This is kind of the trend, but it will factor factor in new uh data as we go as well.

>> Yeah. Yeah. What I um really like uh and maybe also that is that is interesting in a discussion in general, right? Like this is like you're saying this is based on what we have and what we know. And the same is with the power law. It is based on what we have and what we know. It is the power law is not an opinion I say to people, right? It's it's math. It's just showing the apparent discovery of a power law. And this is how Bitcoin behaves. And it's not only price over time, right? That there it's even hash rate and number of wallets. I think there's like six or seven uh of of of these characteristics that you can uh eventually plot them on a on a power law. The signal for me is actually okay. That's very interesting because this is not um this is not a random thing. There's not there's there's definitely not something random happening which I think is a very positive signal. Um but again it kind of clashes with okay um can you should you then like only look back and say where we are or can you also project towards the future right and I think that projection towards the future is where some people find it difficult um yeah to kind of like visualize that or accept that also because and this is one of the questions that I I wanted to ask you you know we have a popular meme which is all your models will be destroyed and I think that often uh like I mentioned before that points to the idea of the finite supply, massive demand if you know like infinite demand that could trigger supply shock that breaks all the models that um yeah look at the past and then >> sort of project towards the future right so I I think that is valid again I mentioned that before but yeah how do you think about that are you I I don't think you are but I think people that discuss these mathematical models are like no these guys are very rigid in their numbers and blah blah like this could definitely happen like if you have the chance as the numbers guy to share thoughts around this like what what would you say >> for sure I mean I think there's a certain percentage of people that are just kind of opposed to modeling Bitcoin which is completely fine um for whatever reason you know there could be a various various reasons for that but they just it it's kind of like this is my baby this is my discovery I I found this thing early or whatever and I've invested a lot of money and they don't like the idea of someone trying to put it in some sort of a mathematical box or framework. So there is a a percentage of people that are just opposed to models in general. Um what I would say is I mean it's not just the math it's a combination of the math and then also just using uh for me anyways it's it's looking at actual networks. So because Bitcoin is really a network of networks and it is a network um you can actually look at uh there's actually research studies um you can use AI to to take um large amounts of data. So I have the the top subscription to Chatb2 Pro or whatever and you can do a lot of research with it. There's two different different tools where you can essentially it'll be searching for like 5 10 minutes. It'll pull from hundreds of of resources and you can ask it very interesting questions around you know network adoption power law stretched exponential decay and the thing that's very interesting for me is it logically makes sense for it to be following this mathematical pattern because what you have is a network that is gaining adoption over time and that network is stabilizing and the volatility is trending down as the network stabilizes and so um and actually a power log growth pattern for the for the the kind of the base bottom. There's actually a ton of examples where you have a power law. People people focus so much on the power law element and and I get that. Um but actually exponential decay and stretched exponential decay are are actually the most common pattern to see with a power law and they're actually interdependent. So you can't really have one without the other. So if the diminishing returns of the peaks breaks, we actually will probably see the power law break as well. Um I actually think they're very much interrelated and so um we focused a lot on the power law but but again um this this modeling of the top 50% this this exponentials/stretched exponential decay is um it's a very common pattern you see in a network gaining adoption stabilizing over time and you can look at networks in various in various fields. So I did quite a bit of research on on that and just kind of looking at the common the most highest probability uh mathematical patterns that we see and if you describe Bitcoin and what it is and you do a lot of deep research on it, it's actually the first probable thing that comes up that it follows a power law and it has a stretched exponential decay. They're the most commonly seen together. And so um it and this is what the math shows. So, like I mean it's it's just really interesting to be on many levels. And so, um, now we've seen black swans to the downside and this is held. We haven't necessarily seen a full white swan to the upside. So, I I still hold out that this could break. I'm not rigid in in as much time as I put on this. Obviously, if we break through the top of this model, I'll be thrilled. like if I'm if I'm proven wrong or whatever, like my I don't really care that much about it. I' I'd rather us break to the upside and follow some other pattern um and and have my the model break, but then obviously, you know, I'm going to make a good amount of money. So, for me, um yeah, maybe there's a white swan that's significant enough that we do see this pattern break for the upside. If the pattern on the upside breaks, I think the parallel will break on the downside part of the uh the bands as well. And you know what would be the trigger for this white swan event? I mean there's many people can have their own uh views on what could trigger that. Um but probably a transition away from from fiat to to an extent that there's like a whole you know uh like complete um change of the whole system right so uh you know that's not necessarily going to happen overnight. I I think given the the players involved globally uh these sorts of things will take place over at least a period of years. So that's where I I'm not, you know, convinced that all of a sudden one day everyone's just going to start buying Bitcoin because the thing is it it's with money um the adoption it takes a while for people to have the conviction, right? It's different when you're signing up for a social media app. Okay, I can put in my login information. This there's a pretty low barrier to entry. When it comes to putting a significant amount of your your life uh time and energy into an asset class, people don't tend to do that overnight. they kind of dabble. Okay, they learn more, they're going to put a higher percentage in. Okay, they learn a bit more, I'm going to put a bit more in. It tends to be a process and that's why I think u this adoption will continue um and not in necessarily a overnight parabolic way. However, there could be and just to wrap it up, there could be white swan events that contribute to periods of time where we do see increases in adoption, right? And um but naturally things will probably kind of come back down. So, um yeah, it'll be fascinating. We'll have to do updates over the course of months and and kind of see where we're at. But um yeah, for people that want to follow along on the quantile model, uh just follow me on X and then like I said, I'll have a website and then we can maybe do another interview down the road if you want and and revisit it and and see see how it plays out. I mean, the fun thing is we're going to know within a couple months to a year probably um we'll be visiting those top quantiles potentially. So we'll be able to see how it holds up.

>> Yeah. Well, I I think this was very fascinating and very helpful also to um to learn about this. Again, I think it's a it's a great tool to understand where you're at and then, you know, be able to make a conscious decision. So, I think that's absolutely fantastic. Of course, I will link to your X account in the description below so people can follow you and then uh to to know when your website is going to be live. So, thanks a lot. I thought it was very insightful and uh yeah I just want to ask you my last question bit unrelated to what we talked about but I ask everyone the same question at the end which is uh what is a core belief that you will never let go of >> I like that question I'm I'm a bit bit of a philosophical minded person. Okay, what comes to mind? A core belief that I will never let go of. Wow. Um, off the top of my off the off the cuff, I would say like there is a a a frequency of of of deep love and good that exists in some whatever you want to define this realm as. It's it's not just doom and gloom, low frequency, you know, evil. There is a a a very strong um and that is the default. My personal belief is the default of of whatever dimensional massive whatever you want to define you know whatever lens you want to use to define this existence a simulation or whatever a quantum physic whatever whatever this is that we're experiencing and whatever the vastness of of dimensions are I think the the default is um is an experience of there there is some sort of of loved uh is just a word to define it or a high frequency or a good however you know it's hard to define in words but there's something there and then there's deviations from this to kind of get a spectrum where we can have growth growth experiences from in these sort of whatever avatar-l like simulated realities I don't know but there is a contrast from that but I think the default is is is really good and and and and we've signed up potentially for some sort of an experience but um I don't think, you know, as much as people watch the news and everything's always bad and I mean, whatever, uh, to for me to think that there's only, you know, evil and it's all just whatever, that's the dominant thing that exists at the core. No, it it's the opposite. It has to be. That's the only thing that I'll hold on to. >> Fantastic. Thanks for sharing. I think the people listening know that I very much agree with you. Thank you so much. Thanks for your time. I hope people found it valuable. And uh yeah, we'll stay in touch. We'll do this again and seeuh where we're at. >> Awesome. Thanks very much. Have a great day. Yeah, take care. >> I hope you enjoyed this episode. If you did, you can click here to find more just like it. And click here to find all Bitcoin for Millennials podcast episodes. Also, please like this video if you want to help shine a light on the message of Bitcoin. And subscribe to my channel to stay connected. I hope to see you for our next episode. Bye. [Music]