Transcription
Morning. Let me get the fancy opening. I think I got the camera working this morning. Hold on. Yay. I'm already ready. All right. Let me give you the fancy opening. Where is that?
[music] >> [music] [music] [music] >> Hey, hey, hey. [music] Hey, hey, hey. [music] [music] [music] [music] >> [music] >> Hey, [music] hey, hey. [music] >> [music] >> Hey, [music] interesting. [music] >> [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> Heat. [music] [music] Hey, Heat. [music] >> [music] [music] >> All right. Having a boomer on it. Give me a second. Hold on. Hold on. Let's not get nuts. Let's everybody calm down. Let me get this out.
So, it's on my. So, I know it's done. Um, I think that'll do it. Give me one second. Sorry guys. All right. There's a lot going on this morning. Like a ton. Um, let's do the basics and go from there. I feel like this, we're starting later and I don't feel like we're starting later and later. We are starting later and later. Really trying to avoid that. Um, let's get to this and let's go take a look at what's going on. And I like redoing this in the morning so people can learn how to do this for themselves.
So the very first thing we're going to do is just go to that Sunday night. Should be easy to spot, right? Should be right Friday right there. Boom. Boom. And you can see we're over the value high there. And we're holding that point of control. And then from there, what we want to do is just go back to the previous day on ES and overlay that right here. And then we're going to get the other level with it. So if we can get through this one, then we're heading to that, right? [snorts] And then of course we want to watch down here. We want to watch how this all sorts itself out. But um, if we go to this bar right here, so it's going to take you to that point of control. So I don't really need that. So, let's go back out to here to 15 and then just go to this and see if there's anything there. Huzzah.
So, the peak here is that VWAP and so that VWAP is fighting peak VWAP is that point of control. So, that's definitely of interest. We'll drop it to a five and then we'll open it up. And then we can see that that's definitely the area of interest. And I can actually do this with it. Make it even brighter so you can see it. There it is. Yay. So, that's a big area and we seem to be trying to hold on to it. Now, Jolt's jobs are at 10:00 a.m. Jobs are becoming like way way more important, but these are like pretty big key levels that I'd be paying attention to that we held. Um, and I do think that that's important. The other thing that you probably just might want to watch is just down here because that's where we, you know, that was the low yesterday. These crazy kids that trade futures, they love undercutting their lows and then ripping it. So, there might be something to that. Certainly something worth paying attention to. Um, you know, and then we'll see what happens from there. I I do think there's something to that. Let me just drop this down in here. Drop it like it's hot like the kids say. Go do it with NQ again.
Um, I think as the week goes on, you're going to get lighter and lighter volume. And for time sake, I'm going to keep it just like this. You guys know exactly how we did this level. And this is what I was talking about yesterday as well where, you know, this was very clear to us. We went through this uh publicly pre-market, but like that was it. Like as soon as we got there, we just went long uh mostly semis, but it was pretty clean read. Here, you're hitting, you're kind of trapped in these levels. You know, if you get through it, you're probably heading up to here, which gives us what? I mean, what are we going to get out of that? So that's going to give us, you know, one and a half percent that could be there. Um, so there's a lot here that could actually happen today. And let's go to the 4 hour super quick and just drop it again like it's hot right here. Yay. And see that that doesn't mean squat to us, right? So we'll go to a five and you're all the way down here like I'm going to leave it because it it is it has been rejected. We flipped it and we have yet to retest it. So maybe we retest that. I don't know. That's also of interest on the shorter term. So if I got to there, I might want to watch that. Maybe get like a little undercut or something there. Maybe Ber anyone. So we'll watch that. And then.
So this is kind of how I see the bigger levels. And we can see that you're you're holding them really well in there. So I don't really think that there's much more to to say or do there. Uh, I truly don't and it's definitely of interest there. So, you know, we'll see how that goes and it is what it is. So, let's go to this and we'll go here. And now we're done. Um, looking at it from a Q perspective, right? And then we can just kind of We don't need this right now, right? And we can just kind of see the same levels very similar, right, to what we were just talking about. You can see that 705 has just been really a level down. Anything down here has really been holding uh for now, but now you're over. So, you know, you might get pulled back in. Just when you thought they were out, they pull you back in. So, it's something for us to watch. I'm going to take questions on names because there's so many names that I could personally go over um that it's pretty darn insane. So, um, I don't really want to do that. I'd rather just go through what you guys want to talk about and and kind of go from there. Um, just kind of going through some things here and just looking and you know, we'll see see what happens and how this day plays out. But let's get to it. Let's get to the questions.
MSTR. All right. So this ATI um I I don't know. Is this like the You're a what do you call company, right? You're a like mushroom company or something. Is that what they do? Um, yeah. Psychedelics. So, I I don't know. I mean, I I've own I own this one. This was the leading one. Um, I I think g it's game over already. So, you know, that's kind of where my head is with this. I I don't really see the sense in in doing more there. Let's go to this. Let's put this up here. Um I don't really see the sense in in chasing another one. I think it game's already over. I mean, we've owned this since like 15 bucks. So, um I I don't know why I would chase the next one. Like, it just doesn't make any sense to me. Like, it's kind of game over there. Um, that's how I see it. You You might feel differently, but um, yeah, I think it's super interesting how we got right to that level, which would be a buy signal, like if it can flip through 95, but we're bidding down, which might not be the worst thing uh, for people that want to trade this. You know, I guess they looked at the news and I don't know if there's more news that I have to go and read about, you know, what else did this crazy cat do? Um, I don't know if there's more news there that I have to pay attention to or not yet. But, you know, if he changed his mind, if he's doing something different, um, to me, you're completely utterly washed out down here. And these usually are really interesting areas to get involved and try it if you have patience. Um, you know, I it's the same thing again. Oh, he's going to blow up. We knew this was coming. Blah blah blah blah blah. And then the stock will double. Um, and then, you know, someone's in their basement still eating hot pockets criticizing the guy that's made like a a small fortune. So, um, or a large fortune. So, I I don't know, man. I I think the move that he did was the right move by saying, "Hey, we'll go out there and buy this in the open market." Um, the way it's acting this morning is like they don't believe him. So, you know, I I clearly need to do more on this. Um, you're going to get a dividend of 50 cents today. So today's Tuesday, right? Yeah. So you're going to get a dividend today of 50 cents. Um, so I really do like this and it's definitely definitely of interest. I thought this is fascinating too that this one just keeps getting destroyed by it. Um, and I think that this was probably the buy candidly on Friday. Uh, they gapped it down and then you had a bunch of people that just bought it. now they're going to get, you know, 18% or whatever for perpetuity. Um, yeah, I don't know. I don't know that you're going to come all the way back down here. I I don't know that these guys are in the same boat. So, I think it's super a super interesting trade. Really haven't done a lot with it lately, but I'd be leaning towards MSTR, but I'd want to know why why they're fading him. Um, are they fading him because they don't believe him? You know, it kind of seems that way, doesn't it? So, I don't know. You know, I think you gota be real real careful here and of being on the other side of this at this level. Like if you break I had 42 as a target, right? But and that obviously getting it down. So, I had a big short in MSTX um at 19 and I closed it yesterday and we were short it not very long either. We've been shorting this thing on and off for some time. um you know shorted it up here I think it was I forget the date I'll look it up but um to me it was like a no-brainer and at the time and I closed it yesterday at like seven and change so I'm leaning towards you're to you're near the tail end of it I think it's going to take an event to really get it down.
De cat so de yeah yeah I don't really like the it's acting. Cat makes more sense to me. Um, Caterpillar since it broke out, you know, you've just been doing great things. Um, I would love it if it came back down to here, but I think that is kind of like a pipe dream. Uh, kind of like how I want like GEV to come back down. Like it's just kind of like a, you know, it's a pipe dream. It's just not going to happen. Um, you know, like this kind of stuff when it happens, it's just they're gone. So, you know, um, it's really frustrating, but anyway, um, yeah, I I think if you can get that down that it's super interesting, but I think you have to, you know, hope you get that down. And I I don't know that it's going to be that simple.
Um PW to me I it's like I we were very fortunate to catch this in here for a trade, right? And then we caught crowd the same way and we did exceptional with these trades. Here's the here's the way that I look at this. Um I don't believe and I we're seeing it in Europe right now that everyone's going to use AI to catch AI like they're going to use cyber security companies that they can rely on. Okay, are you done? Okay, they're [snorts] going to use cyber security companies that they can outsource this stuff to. Um, and that's going to be crowd and that's going to be Palo Alto. And that's becoming super clear to me. And they might just outsource it because they don't want the risk and they want a third party risk, but they're definitely going to outsource it. So to someone like me, that makes a lot of sense. Um to look at those and say, "All right, you know, if that's what they're going to do, then that's what they're going to do." So, um, I'm I'm of that kind of thought process right now. So, you know, we'll see. We'll see how it goes, but that's really where my head is with it. And uh, you know, we'll see how that plays out this morning. See something here. So, um, that's really where my head is this morning on that. Um, I do I do think that like I I really do think that I the more I write about it, the more the more I'm absolutely convinced of it. I don't know that this really was the day that I had to get involved. I think that this when people really starting to get it. And it's also, you know, what's interesting about these, John, is it's like now you're into um now you're into second quarter, right? And so now you got to see where they wanted to put their money. And this is where they want to put their money. So I like it. Um I do. I like it. I like it.
>> [clears throat] >> I'm short a couple things and they're holding up like some are just like absolute pigs and they're dying die. Um, kind of how I thought they would die and then like the things that should be dying. I'm just looking at some of my shorts. DXYZ I'm short. Like this thing should be dying and instead they're turning it back up. [sighs] It's like the easiest short in the world. All right. Um Give me one second here. Give me one second, guys. >> [sighs] >> Let's keep going. Sorry. Hello from the rice field. Hello from Miami. Good morning. I like GLW a lot. I think you get more repositioning today. But now it's over. So whatever they didn't sell, they're going to sell. Whatever they have to sell and puke, they've already done. In my opinion, I think they puked a lot. I think we would have seen more puking yesterday is kind of where my head is with it. Yeah, I I actually like this name. Um, you know, he wrote a couple books and um I I really wouldn't bet against this guy. You know, it's funny how you remember crap, right? So, like when I started back in the day, I had a guy that was like, "You need to buy this." And, [clears throat] you know, I think he was I want to say that he was probably in his 60s at the time and I was like super young. I'm like, "Whatever, Boomer. I'm not buying that company." I think he bought it at like $15. He's like, "I'm telling you, this is a huge long-term business." I'm like, "Whatever. Pets.com, bro." Okay. So, ask me how my pets.com did versus his United Rentals. Young and dumb. Anyway, um I wouldn't bet against that dude. I own it. Um I own it cheaper than here. I could see me owning more of it. I don't think this is something that you play with. This is something that you buy and you forget that you own. You don't bet against that dude. There's people that you don't bet against. Take the time. Take time off. Like literally go and take a time off. Go read a book. Go to cash. Read a book. Start journaling. Good morning from Seattle. Good morning from Miami. It's like 90 degrees here. And I always laugh because people say, "Well, it's not hot." I'm like, "It's the humidity. It's like a It's like walking through a warm soup. It is freaking brutal lately." Um, Marvel, no. RXT will cover cover. Yeah, I'm I get the whole I I miss a big city like a lot. Honestly, I miss the walkability. Um, not really. There's another little guy I keep looking at. I took a starter in. These little guys kill me. Like they're just because they can just drop for no reason. I'm not really feeling this. I know people like it because Rack Space, they're going to do stuff with rockets. Well, maybe just buy the rocket companies, you know, let them get smoked and then buy the rocket companies. You let everybody panic. Did they do a secondary? That's pretty typical. It's kind of a really stupid place to do a secondary if they did. I wonder why it's dropping the way it is. >> [snorts] >> slow deleveraging. They look like they may have taken market share. Star link might take didn't even make any money yet. I don't even understand that that statement. I don't know. I don't understand why it's down three. It'll come to me. Someone will tell me booze fuel cell. I don't know, Finn. Do we really want to look at this? I mean, I get it, but I don't know, man. Like why? Like why do I want to own this? Because we're gonna like why why is it doing this? I don't know the story. Maybe there's a real good reason for it. You know what I mean? Like and maybe I shouldn't be so grumpy. Um, it's like I feel like next people are going to ask me to look at plug. Um, I don't know why it's doing what it's doing. So I'm the wrong person to ask. If if I had to look at this and say, you know, what do you do with it? I mean, it's pretty crystal clear that's a breakout on huge volume. So if you're interested, you get involved. I mean, I missed revenue. I'm bleeding more money from, pardon me, from every orifice. Like, why would I do this to myself? I'm not saying it's right or wrong. I just don't get the trade. And I'm not saying I'm right, you know? I mean, technically, you would look at this and go, "This is my base. I'm breaking out of my base. That's my breakout bar." And then you have like a 33% chance on like breakouts like this, whether or not they work. That's that's kind of like the numbers. So, um, you know, for whatever it's worth, they're kind of like what the numbers are. So, I don't know. We'll see. Thank you. Um, I don't know. Do we really want to cover the ENP and the I mean, anytime you're ready, I am. Um, I I actually think like it's for solar or nothing, right? And that that ended. How'd that How'd that go? So, I'm not getting that. Larry, I am in no mood. You people thought Larry was fake. Do you believe that? I I I have a position in this through sold puts. Um I think it's super interesting that it got back to the IPO price and held the IPO price. I don't know that I want to own it here, but if I could own it at like 145, which is pretty much the equivalent of where I sold the puts, I feel like I'm quite all right there buying it at like a 20% discount to uh the IPO price. you know the question is was the CEO really misunderstood or not you know that becomes the question so um I think it's a good question you know just going through some things here see what else I can do so all right cool um yeah I don't really care about that and I know I'm like supposed to care about it and I'll tell you why I don't care about it um one I can't do anything about it. Two, nobody cares. Like I expected to see something due to it. But I really think that after this what happened back here like and I marked it off so we could talk about it. Um in case someone brought it up like it's the exact same pattern, dude. Like you're dead right. Like down then they just go, "Oh, everything's okay." And they put the trade back on. Down. Oh, everything's okay. And that's what they sound like. And then they put the trade back on. And then we walked into this suck salad, right? And then if you overlay that, that's what the market did, too. I I I feel like everybody here that got caught in this trade that had to unwind is coming in here and saying, "I'm not going to fall for the banana in the tailpipe." So that's why I'm not as concerned about it. But yeah, man, it's there. It's there. So, you know, I don't have the leverage numbers. Um I don't have the the leverage numbers there. So I I don't know, man. I don't have an answer to that. Um I had the leverage numbers here, but I don't know how much is there right now. I I would imagine it's significantly less, especially after you got the new Fed chair that's like we don't know what we're going to do and we're not going to do press conferences anymore and we're not going to write a big note anymore. It's like which I love. Like yeah, let's get some risk in the market. Let's get paid for equity risk. Yeah, let's do it. You know, that's why people are getting paid on options again. So, I I love the guy. He's the cat's pajamas to me. Um, RG, God, I am funny. Um, RG TM I AK. So, I AK is going to be a monster, bro. I could tell just before I even look at Yeah, you're gonna be an absolute monster. So there's a couple names here and it makes a lot of sense because if you want equity risk in the market and you have a strong dollar think I mean you have a strong dollar right now so anything coming back it makes a ton of sense. Uh, but also if I started going through these names like progressive started hitting my run rate or like my um my scans uh the sle started hitting it, you know, this thing's just a monster and you know after earnings like that was the buy right there and now you'd be up like 60 bucks. Um I didn't do it. I was too busy like you know bathing in DRAM um to make money off of something so boring, right? God forbid I make $60 and it's easy. So, I I don't know, man. I I I I don't think it's over. Um I don't I don't know if you want to go full AFLAC, but I I don't think it's over. Like, I think there's something to it and I need to understand it a little bit better. Um, but yeah, you know, the trade usually is just by Birkshshire, right? It's like one big insurance company. What's that crazy kid doing? Yeah, you're trading over the NAV, right? So, [sighs and snorts] I am sassy. Thank you. Thank you. I'll take sassy. It's kind of a feminine, but I'll take it. I don't know anything about this company. I know everyone's crazy about it. The ARCG. Yeah, Jacob, let me show you this because I think it's really important. Um, I'm probably I I want to get involved. Uh, I'm not involved yet. And one of the things I have to watch with these, you see the breakout, but that's the peak VWAP. So, I'm over I I really need to come down to this again and test that and then see if I can make a higher high and then use that as a base. But buying peak VWAP areas, yeah, it's not great. And you can get over them, right? Like you can um, but you know, when they're there like here, you really better pay attention to them. um, you know, because they're vicious. Like they are freaking vicious. You see it up here. Like there's the IPO and like you don't even need anything else on the chart. Just short this over and over. Like every time it's up here. I actually bought one. I'm like, "Oh no, it's going to go this time. It's going to go." Guess what? Guess what happened. And you can see you can see it over and over again. It's like it's not like hard to say. Like here that's Ribian. They're like all over the place, right? Like once you see those peak VW webs, that's like that's pretty much it. So, um, it takes time and an an ETF can definitely do it, but it takes time, bro. So, you're going to just watch that. I like Micron. There's not much to say. Yeah, they just don't believe what he's saying like at all. And, you know, but that does become a trust issue. Like that's a thing, you know, and I I think his greatest mistake was selling Bitcoin and then being snarky about it. Like, oh, I meant you should never sell Bitcoin. I I'm going to sell Bitcoin. Like, what? Like, I think that's going to be like if if you want like your Fonza jump the shark moment for him, I I think that was it. I think that was like his problem. I really do.
Axo N. I own this. I got this buried in an account somewhere. Um, I think you're fine. [clears throat] I don't think there's much to do there. [snorts] What else you got? I I like the Axo a lot. I I don't really get the valuation in it at all. write some down. But um, you know, I mean, you're buying it into pre-orders, which are going to be pretty freaking insane, right? Pre-orders in the game are going to be insane. The question is how much of that's factored in at this point. You know, even people like me are looking at getting this game, but you know, how much it's factored in at this point? I I don't know. You're almost better off buying it when it's like everything's delayed. We're never the game's never coming out because like now what do you do with it? So I don't know. I I'm not really feeling it. I see it like like here, watch. You know, I see it, but and it could I mean it does make sense that it would go higher on this, but I don't know. Like everyone's going to buy that damn game. They've all been waiting for it forever. Now I'm wondering what they're going to do there. Yeah, peak VR is a big thing for me. I like this a lot. I'm just not trading it. There's not much to do there. Canada's been doing well. The worst episode of Happy Days. That's when it all ended for Happy Days. I can't do that now. Top down's like it's everything. Everything I do is top down, dude. Like everything. So, I got to jump, guys. Make good choices. Jolts jobs is um 10:00 a.m. So, watch the Jolts jobs number. What else you crazy kids got to watch today? You got a six week tea bill auction at 11:30. No one cares. Tomorrow. You know, Wars speaks in front of the ECB. That'll be interesting. All right, I gotta jump. Make good choices. Later, Taylor.