Transcription
The bearish scenario has been triggered on altcoins. We are currently heading towards the targets we had discussed. I will revisit this topic because the dynamic we are experiencing with altcoins and the levels we might reach are important. Obviously, everything I explain here about this index can be applied to any of your altcoins. What you should look at is your chart. I will do a quick market tour to see what's happening with altcoins and give you reference points for certain altcoins. Furthermore, in the comments, don't hesitate to tell me which altcoin you want me to analyze in the coming days and weeks. Also, don't hesitate to give a thumbs up. It's true that I never say it at the beginning of a video, but it's always appreciated and helps me a lot. I also remind you that our algo service is still available. You have the performance of the SPT algorithms for the 2nd and 3rd quarters of the year. 19R for the 2nd quarter and 14R for the 3rd quarter. Again, we are 100% transparent. To access these algorithms, it's free. It's the first link in the pinned comment. It will take you to this page. You just need to register on Bitgate via your partner link and also via the other partner link, you get up to a 10% deposit bonus. This is a campaign that BitGate exclusively launched a few days ago. So, to do this, you just need to register. For example, if you make a deposit of $1000 and make your first trade, you will get a 10% deposit bonus, so $100, which is quite good. You just need to click here on "join." You create your account and then follow the steps to get your bonus. And for those who want free access to the algos, mentorship, VIP, altcoins, and crypto, you just need to watch this second video. I explain absolutely everything. It will give you access to mentorship, algorithms for free, and also to the VIP Alcoin in Discord. This is where I will share the best opportunities in the altcoin market. And I haven't shared anything yet because I don't think the opportunities are necessarily there yet, but I will keep you informed in these channels when I find really good things.
So, to come here to altcoins, I am on the ODD chart for those who are wondering. I repeat, I don't mind repeating it, it's the entire market outside the top 10. So, roughly speaking, you go to CoinMarketCap, you look at everything after the top 10, and this index is based on that. We can see that this index has not managed to make a new ATH since the 2021 peak, and we see that it is completely correlated with the Russell 2000, for example, which also has not managed to make a peak. That is to say, in fact, we stopped approaching the 2021 peaks. This is the stock index for small companies. So you see that there is indeed a correlation with cryptocurrencies. Well, it's not necessarily a correlation, but the same thing happened in the stock market. That is to say, large caps have exploded their 2021 records. Here, we can see it on the NASDAQ, we are much higher. For us on BTC, for example, we can see that we have also broken our 2021 record. But on the other hand, on the side of small stocks and altcoins, well, we see that we stopped around the 2021 targets. You see, we stopped perfectly here in 2024. So for me, there is a sort of correlation.
Now, what is complicated in the altcoin market is that the monthly fair value gap has kept us here. So this is already the shape of a descending peak. It's not very positive. The fact that we have made a descending peak here is not very positive. I'm telling you this to be honest. Now, when there was the crash here in October, we formed a huge wick here, and the market is unfortunately deciding to retrace this wick. And very often, what we can use as a reference point is the median threshold of the wick. That is to say, roughly, you take a Fibonacci, you take the lowest point, the highest point up to this wick, so up to the candle body, and you locate the 0.5 zone. And so, we see that the market here has decided, I was talking about it, it was absolutely necessary to break this fair value zone. If we wanted the crash to be a reset to go higher, it would have been necessary to break this fair value gap zone. But as you can see, the market was rejected. So, in fact, it's doing what's called a bearish continuation. And so now, it's aiming to retrace the wick. And so, unfortunately, well, it's the market's choice to retrace this wick. The zone on which we could expect a retest is the zone here from 0.5 to 0.75, possibly even filling the entire wick. But first, let's talk about this zone. This means, roughly, returning between 200 billion and 180 billion in market cap. Currently, we are at 230 billion. This means that on average, the altcoin market here, well, it can bounce back, there's no problem, but as long as it doesn't break free from this crash candle, there are, in my opinion, quite significant probabilities of returning to retrace the zone, what I call the discount zone of this wick. That is to say, returning between 200 and 180 billion. So here, this would mean a potential drop of 11-20% more, I repeat, potentially. This does not mean that the market will do this again. But this is a zone here that the market can come back to retrace, and we simply see that it corresponds to the short-term support that has formed on altcoins. That is to say, it's a zone we've seen many times. It's a zone that served as support in 2021, resistance in 2022. Again, two breakouts, so two supports afterward. So breakout in 2023, retest in 2024 in August, retest again in April 2025. And now, we are back on this zone. So, I want to tell you that this price zone here, approximately, is still quite interesting. So here, you see that we are still quite far from the support. Yes, we might not reach it, but if we maintain this dynamic, and for now, that's the case, well, there would be probabilities of reaching this zone. I say it every time, what you need to look at is the performance of altcoins against Bitcoin. Well, I'm spoiling it, it's always in a bearish dynamic if we look here on a long-term scale, whether it's weekly, monthly, whatever. But the work you need to do is to find assets that have a better chart than ODD. So you take your altcoin, so no matter which one, I'll take Avax because I took it in my previous video here. And you divide by ODD and you look at the curve. If Avax falls against ODD, it means that Avax is underperforming the majority of the altcoin market. For example, for several weeks now, AVAX has been underperforming the market, and we see that since 2021, it's an asset that has been underperforming the market. Globally, it has had phases where it performed well, but in the long term, it underperforms. You take something like Hyperliquid, for example, you divide by ODD, you see what it looks like. Hyperliquid, we can see that it's an asset that is outperforming the market. Ah, that makes me think. On this dip, what will I buy? Will I buy something that underperforms altcoins or something that outperforms altcoins? Well, I will buy something that outperforms altcoins. So what you do, for example, is you locate zones that you consider interesting. It can be supports, it can be here the $32, it can be fair value gap zones, we have already filled it with this wick. Maybe the market will come back to work this wick, we don't know. So you can draw the discount zone of this wick here like this. So this would give you, for example, interesting zones in spot between $29 and $25. Does this correspond to anything? Yes, it corresponds to FVG zones, especially on a monthly basis. It can also correspond here to a swing high. Well, these can be interesting zones. I believe that here on Hyperliquid, there is a very interesting zone. I repeat, if we get there, in spot. But on the other hand, continue to buy assets that are bearish. For example, I don't know, I'll take Rose here, which is in a bearish dynamic and in a continuous bear market. There are high probabilities that this thing is not necessarily a good dip to buy because it remains in a bearish market. And it's better to buy dips in bull markets or in bear markets. in bull markets. For example, tomorrow, there is a big drop on two assets, one on a bearish asset and a drop on a bullish asset. I'm more inclined to FOMO, so to speak, on the drop, when it drops sharply. I'm more inclined to FOMO on an Nvidia than on Rose, for example, because Nvidia is bullish, it has a better chance of recovering in case of a big drop since its dynamic is bullish in the long term. Same for Bitcoin, I have a better chance of making money on BTC if there is a big drop than on an altcoin. And so when we talk about this principle, well, we look precisely at what has outperformed the market. So everything that is hyperliquid and so on. Now, this doesn't mean it will continue to outperform the market, but at least it makes us think that for now, Hyperliquid, for example, continues to outperform the ODD index, and therefore remains a stronger asset than the majority of altcoins.
Now, on your altcoins, there was the huge crash. Okay, so here, I'll take Avax as an example. You switch to daily and you locate the following. Well, here I'll clean up my chart. We'll take the wick and we'll do the same, we take a Fibonacci from the lowest point to the highest point of the wick like this. Here, you see, I stop right at the body, and we'll locate the 0.5 to 0.75. And this is what we'll call the discount zone. That is to say, in these levels, in these zones, you have interesting price zones, not for a mega long-term target, to the moon, bull run, etc., but they could be zones for a bounce in the first instance. So to secure profits if there is a bounce, and then consider holding this position long-term or not, depending on what the chart shows. But here, there are chances, given the dynamic, as you can see. in the fair value gap zone, bearish continuation, descending peak, bounce, descending peak, bounce, descending peak, so here we have order blocks rejecting the price again here, fair value gap, rejection, bearish continuation, etc. However, nothing prevents the market from doing this, coming back to work this zone, and then consolidating or going down again. So these would be opportunities. Now, again, I took Avax as an example. Avax, well, it remains an asset in a bearish dynamic. That is to say, again, if I position myself, I must be aware that I am positioning myself in a bearish dynamic. We can see that AVAX, unfortunately, what it did was fill its FVG and go down again. Unfortunately, that's what it did. So, that's what kept it in a bearish dynamic. After all, it's true that we are reaching extremely interesting price zones, particularly the annual lows here of 2023 and 2021. Well, the 2021 low is still lower, around $3. I'm not saying we're going back to $3, far from it, but what I'm saying is that, well, the short-term support here, it's true that it could be a good opportunity for someone who believes in Avax and wants to position themselves for the long term. However, what is factual is that it remains a bearish dynamic. Here, what would be positive for Avax in the coming months is to start drawing something like this, to break its previous monthly high and form higher highs. That would be very good if we did something like this. And then yes, there would potentially be a signal of a bullish recovery and a bullish cycle on AVAX, which is not yet the case. So you have to find what is still a nice chart. Otherwise, well, focus on Bitcoin, and that's what I recommend and what I do. Stay exposed to BTC. Well, here I am hedged, meaning I am gaining Bitcoin on this drop. But what I mean is that the idea is, first, to be exposed to Bitcoin, and then to look at the altcoin chart against Bitcoin. So, for example, if I have Bitcoin, is it interesting for me to exchange my Bitcoin for AVAX? No, clearly not. This is the dynamic of AVAX against Bitcoin. It's clearly not the case. So it doesn't interest me. But the day the Avax chart starts to look like this, then it would start to be interesting for me to exchange my Bitcoin for AVAX because AVAX would have a chance to outperform Bitcoin. And I remind you that the role of an altcoin is to make us gain Bitcoin. So for me, you should look more at your chart against BTC. First step, I expose myself to BTC. OK? When I estimate that Bitcoin prices are good, that the chart on Bitcoin is good. Then, second step, I observe. So I look at my altcoins against BTC. It shows a bad chart. OK? So first solution, the chart looks like this. Well, I don't expose myself to that, we don't want that. On the other hand, if the chart starts to look like this, then I can exchange my BTC for the altcoin that shows me this. Right now, there's almost nothing on the market that shows this, to be honest. So this leads us to think that for now, Bitcoin will remain the dominant asset. You just need to look at Bitcoin dominance, observe what's happening, and see that Bitcoin dominance remains the asset with a bullish long-term dynamic for now. So it's an asset that can still strengthen eventually. Well, to be honest with you, I personally monitor the premium zone of this wick, and I will observe how Bitcoin dominance reacts in the 62.15% to 62.78% range. Also, what we can observe is USDT dominance. Is it rising or not? If so, it means that money is clearly leaving the market. For example, if we are to break this trendline, there's a chance of reaching the next one, and this would indicate that people are simply continuing to take refuge in stablecoins. The market cap is decreasing, and Tether's capitalization is increasing or stagnating. But this would cause it to gain dominance, and therefore, it would cause altcoins to lose dominance even more. And so, when you look at altcoin dominance, well, here, we can simply see that it's still bearish. What I also want to point out is that you can look at the dominance of your coin. I don't know if we have AVAX dominance, but for example, AVAX continues to lose dominance. So this means that it's an asset that is underperforming the market and losing market share. So this is not necessarily, well, in dollars, I agree with you that the price is extremely interesting, but in terms of strength against Bitcoin, for example, it's not the case. And so this is what I invite you to look at as well. For example, you might get the impression that an altcoin is stagnating in dollars, but against Bitcoin, it's losing a lot of its value. This means that it would have been better to be exposed to Bitcoin. And then, the day the chart looks like this against BTC, then you exchange some BTC for this altcoin since there's a way it can make you gain altcoin, simply. Or rather, make you gain BTC. I remind you that this is our goal, when, for example, the chart here on AVAX looked like this, it was consolidating well, and then there were signals. When we break the previous high, then there are signs. Well, this is Avax USD, but let's go to AVAX BTC here. When your chart starts to make a first pump, retracement, reload zone, and then you see W bottoms, then there are extremely interesting signals. OK, it's not necessarily very interesting here. Honestly, I wouldn't have found anything to engage with on this move, and well, that proves that it wasn't very interesting, that it wasn't solid, since the market is retracing. For example, here there is a signal, and when we re-enter, it's better to exit because yes, you also need to know how to invalidate your positions. For example, this was a very, very good signal, and the fact that the market breaks and re-enters, that's an exit signal. It's better to go back to BTC or to exit the position entirely. After a break like this, the market is not supposed to re-enter. If it re-enters, it's consolidation, manipulation, expansion. And this is a concept that I explain in the mentorship. Oops, there's a small bug here. My connection must be bugging. Well, it's not a big deal. But this is a small lesson I explained, what is called the PO3 concept. Here, I should rename it to concept, by the way. There, that's what I explain in this course. So, it's not good to see the re-entry, but roughly, this is what you like to see. For example, Solana here, on the other hand, is very interesting. When it started to show this, it was very interesting to start engaging on Sol, meaning selling BTC to go to Sol. And there, Sol has outperformed BTC. For example, Sol does not have the same dynamic as all altcoins. Altcoins are rather in this very low dynamic. Solana, well, it did it the first time, big bull run of 2021. A second time, a nice, moderate bull run, since again, liquidity is not there for bull runs like in 2021. But graphically, this is also not too bad. So Solana, in my opinion, is worth watching. If we ever come back to work these impulses, there would be a way to find interesting things. From my point of view, for example, on Sol, what I would like to see is that we continue to work this zone and that we continue to develop rather bullish price action, something like this. Then, it could indicate that it would be good to start switching back from Bitcoin to Solana and that Solana could outperform Bitcoin again. But I'm telling you, there aren't many charts like this. So you will have to be patient and especially observe your altcoins, the big wick, the discount zones, and especially your performance ratio against Bitcoin. Earlier, I talked about Rose because I know it has a bad dollar dynamic, but against Bitcoin, it's even worse. If I switch to logarithmic, we see that it's something that is collapsing against Bitcoin. So at some point, well, it risks approaching insatoshi, so it can't go any lower. Maybe then it will be an extraordinary opportunity. But for now, it's still an asset that can lose value against Bitcoin. It's possible we've bottomed out here on this move. I don't know against BTC, but it will have to prove it. It will have to start showing signs of resilience, which we don't have at all for the moment. So it's a bad asset to hold if you don't want to lose Bitcoin or Bitcoin equivalent. Because I remind you that an altcoin should make us gain Bitcoin. That's its objective. To make us money in dollars, yes, that's one thing. But if Bitcoin has gone up 10x and your altcoin has gone up 3x, it's useless. Your altcoin must outperform BTC, which is not the case for Rose here and which is not the case for 98% of the altcoin market. I'll stop here. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to bombard the thumbs up, subscribe, and leave a comment. Thank you very much to those who play along. I remind you of all the links in the description box. Lots of free content for you. See you very soon. Have a good day.