Transcription
Yeah. Warning. This video and all other videos on this channel are for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all the other videos on this channel are opinions of the creator only and do not constitute legal, trading, investment, or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in happens unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all.
All right. Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and I think I don't know man. Look, printer is coming. QE is here right apparently. I know it sounds cool and I don't I kind of wish I could just, you know, get on board with this hype train and be jumping up and down and screaming here comes the printer printer go. They just pivoted to QE and all of this stuff, but unfortunately, and it sounds really arrogant and I even hate the sound of my own voice lately, as I keep saying, but no one knows what they're they're talking about. They just haven't got a clue.
So, unfortunately, I have to be the guy that steps in here and says, "Actually, this is not how the real world works. This isn't actually what is happening." And unfortunately, I kind of have to be the guy that's that kills the vibe at the party, unfortunately. But if I don't do it, who else is going to, right? And frankly, I'm also just not the kind of guy that's going to sit here and just lie to you. That's the absolute truth of it. So, unfortunately, we got to point at a bunch of stuff today and kind of say, well, no, that's wrong and that's wrong and that's wrong. But whatever, I guess. So, without further ado, let's start showing people why they're wrong, I guess.
Look, Camel's razor, right? We cut rates by 25 basis points. Of course, we did because camel's razor, right? Tell that to the bond market. We knew this was coming. No surprises there. Fine. But the big news, as I'm sure you're all very well aware, because it's the only thing I can find to read on the Twitter feed at the moment, is that the Fed is going to buy 40 billion worth of Treasury bills over the next 30 days. They are calling this thing RMP, which is reserve management purchases, to the tune of about 40 billion in Treasury bills on the short end, no less. Okay, I've seen some people saying the three year is the long end nowadays. I don't know, bro. I I don't think you're just allowed to change the definition like that. But you can't just lop off a zero, right? You can't just remove an order of magnitude and say this is now the long end, right? Not not for me anyway. That's not going to fly with me, but whatever. Right? So, they're going to do 40 bill in treasury purchases for a few months to offset expected large increases in non-reserve liabilities in April. It kind of reminds me of the BTFP, right? The bank term funding program. You can call it not QEQE. You can call it stealth QE. Everyone seems to have jumped onto this narrative as the printer is here and this is outright QE and people are saying it doesn't really make a difference, right? Is still printing money and it's still going to have this big risk on impact in the markets and of course you've seen a bunch of this right QE is back and ignore all the big words and semantics they are printing money that's it okay but but the thing is moderating private sector duration risk is not QE okay and it's not semantics okay because one does what people think it does and the other literally does not right so again I don't mean to be the guy that has to be like actually uh we're just moderating private sector duration risk like that guy gets no puss let's be honest okay but someone's got to say it because it's just bogus. It's just a complete outright lie to say this is QE. This is not QE. It's not even going to have a marginal QE like impact. Okay, that's the truth for the matter. Hate to be that guy.
Alt season is not now around the corner. Bitcoin is not now probably going to go to the absolute moon and beyond. And this is not going to be an extended cycle and all that other stuff, right? In fact, if you really think about it, what we're actually observing here is exactly what I said we're going to start to observe as we move into the final blowoff top moment. We don't just call the lows on this channel. We call the literal words from their mouths. We said these people would falsely believe QE was here prematurely. We said these people would falsely start to parrot these narratives because we know what they're going to say before they even know what they're going to say. Why? Because they don't know what they're talking about, right? They're just going to jump up and down and parrot whatever's going on because they don't know the difference between moderating short-term duration and outright Fed balance sheet expansion. They have no idea that one of these is essentially just pushing money into risk assets and the other one is doing nothing of the sort, right? Like they they just don't know. Dude, we just got QE. Actually, no. We just knew weeks in advance that people like you were going to spew this kind of stuff wrongly again. Okay, so anyway, look, it's not really our problem. Our job is simply to watch these guys closely. The guys that think this is QE, the guys that are going to, you know, perpetually say, "Ignore the words and semantics. They're printing money." Our job is to watch these people be whipped up into a frenzy and extremely one-sided herd. Expect a crowd. Okay? They really are the signal. And the more one-sided they become, the more sure of themselves they become that this can never break because they're just going to flood the system with money. The more confidence they will have that nothing can go wrong because they're just going to print this thing into infinity and beyond. And that's when we're going to have to take the opposite side of the trade at the inflection point, right? That's when it pays to really be contrarian. There is going to be a very loud know-it-all crowd. I mean, we literally had 40 billion treasuries announced for a couple of months, a few if we're lucky, and we've immediately pivoted to everyone's shouting QE. That's how know it all and loud this crowd already is. Okay, so expect this to just get worse and worse.
Also wanted to point at this cuz I thought this is really weird. It's like, oh, remember when we did QE last time and later it was a trillion of daily injections, right? We're nowhere near a trillion, okay? 40 billion a month for 3 months, okay, is 12% of a trillion. Not even close. And then, weirdly enough, and this is why I wanted to point to this, all right, good times. Like, bro, what what are we doing here? How is this good times? How is extending the wealth gap further good times? How is getting rich off the back of everyone else starving to death? Good times. How is debasing the currency so that your children and children's children and their children's children's children can't buy property anymore? Like, what were you talking about? And as predicted, right? Oh, we're going to buy 40 billion of threeear bills, tea bills. Okay. Oh, well, bullish altcoins. Convince me otherwise. I don't need to convince you otherwise. Look at the altcoin charts, okay? Like that tells you whether you're right or not, doesn't it? Okay, it's not that complicated.
So, yeah, I'm sorry to be that guy, right? I'm absolutely sorry to be that guy, but someone has to. In the meantime, what does it mean for the charts? Well, it means again, we don't really care. We don't care about yesterday. We don't care about today. We care about the weekly closes. As I've been saying all week, chop games and volatility is expected into FOMC. I think this is actually a huge win for the camel crew. Okay? Because if you really think about it, if you back up for a while, we have been talking about getting this huge parabolic blowoff top moment to exhaust this four-year cycle phase, right? The bull phase of the four-ear cycle. This is what we've been talking about. One final push to new all-time highs and then heading down for a couple of failed and left translated weekly cycles to give us the four-year cycle. And at the same time this is set up, remember, we've been talking about how the cycles for gold, right? This is the 8year cycle, the half cycle low in the 8ear cycle. We're set up for maybe one final high. That might be it already. We don't really know, right? Maybe we get the rotation here. This consolidates and then rolls over into that half cycle low whilst the miners and silver have their kind of push because this did massively outpace everything else to date. So maybe this has already topped or maybe there's one final high and then it moves down to that half cycle low. But look at the timing frame. Exactly the same as the stock market. Okay, late 2026. What else do we know is due here? Late 2026. Oh yeah, like the most well-known four-year cycle that everyone currently believes is dead. We might get this yellow squiggle play out from here if we're extremely lucky to new highs. If enough people can be convinced QE is really coming and this really is a new paradigm shift and there really is nothing but helicopter money coming our way. If the majority of the market participants can be convinced that that's true, then something like this could be in play. Okay, but it's also true, as I've said a million times, that we might be lucky just to get this. Okay, and then what? Head for that four year cycle low synced up at the same time the stock market and gold's major four year cycle lows are also ready to be formed and it's not until here when we'll finally be out or near zero interest rates and then we can really start to seriously talk about outright QE actual money that rotates into risk assets right and then you can bet dimes to donuts that the next fourear cycle out there is going to be unlike anyone we've ever seen okay record printing it's going to probably make the one we saw in the prior cycle with the C19 printing look small in hindsight this entire cycle was probably just used for the big boys to get in position ahead of that major print, right? But like I was saying, this is really a win for the camel crew because we've been saying all of this for a long time. We've been saying that we should probably get one final push if we're lucky. Might even be a lower high bounce here, okay? And then our focus becomes on finding those major four-ear cycle lows. But if you really pay attention to what else we've been saying, we've been saying retail on mass, okay, the market in aggregate is going to buy into a false narrative. They're going to say things like QE is coming when interest rates are still too high for outright QE. We've been saying they're going to interpret the rate cuts as bullish when in fact the Fed is still overly restrictive, right? We've been saying that the labor market is going to deteriorate at a rate that will soon be recessionary. And then just as we got there, they stopped releasing the data. Same with inflation, right? We've been saying the risk is deflation and the market has been psyched into believing that, you know, the printer's just getting going. Inflation is going to tick up again, right? So all of this is actually aligning perfectly. Like I was saying in that tweet earlier, we haven't just been able to call the cycle lows here. We've literally been able to call the false ideas that the market in aggregate is now latching on to. We've literally been able to call the tweets and say we expect to see these kind of tweets months in advance. So, I think this is a massive win for us, like I said, and it's really just a case now of seeing if we can get this trend line breakout for Bitcoin, seeing if the market in aggregate after we're finished shaking and baking them yesterday and today and probably tomorrow as well can indeed latch on to that narrative that we're early in a cycle or it's reaceleration or the ISM's ticking up. I don't care what it is, right? But they're wrong. Let's be honest, they're wrong because they don't even know the difference between shuffling 40 billion around in a few banking accounts to help boy the banks and their reserves versus outright Fed balance sheet expansion. They they don't even know the difference, right? But it doesn't matter as long as the market in aggregate can believe that we're about to reacelerate, then we will reacelerate at least in the short term, right? At least in markets. And then again, we'll get ready for that major rug as we head for those four year cycle lows.
So, I will say this. After being quite a quiet week for the camel crew, I've made lots of videos in the past couple of weeks saying, "Well, there's not much to talk about." Now, we finally get to say, "Okay, our idea is playing out in real time, right? This is absolutely being validated in real time." And again, it's everyone else that needs a new idea. We don't need a new idea. Everyone else does, right? Because everyone else has bought into a false idea and a false narrative because they don't have the understanding to tell the difference, as we've said a dozen times already. So, what does it mean? Well, it means again shake out around FOMC. Weekly closes will be important. Looking for higher Bitcoin prices for gold should be probably about to force that daily cycle low any day now, maybe even via time. And silver seems to continue to want to push, so we'll just let it. Again, we're still got plenty of positions, ETFs and individual stocks in the member section to capture this move. And then for the stock market, notice how I was talking about two potential scenarios, right? I was talking about either seeing this pull back and go to new highs and off we go. or I was talking about getting this exact same shape, but as a retest to the prior all-time high level. And it looks like, at least for the Russell 2K, we've actually got that in the making now from the prior all-time high level. It looks like we're going to smash through the all-time highs, which we just did. And now we're getting ready to have that big retest a bit later in life. Okay, maybe for a half cycle low. I'm not really sure what the timing would be. Yeah, right around my half cycle low time frame to retest the high. That's what it looks like for the Russell. Now admittedly for the S&P, the NASDAQ, and the Dow, it looks more like we're setting up for the pullback first and then we go through alltime highs. I would say that looks to be the case here as well. Doesn't look like we're ready to smash through the highs. Dow Jones might be okay. But in either case, you know, you can't say didn't expect this. You can't say we weren't ready for this, right? We haven't changed our boring tone, our boring repetitive tone on this channel for weeks now. We've been saying the same thing. And again, we can take this one off and say everything's going according to plan.
I kept pointing at the VIX and saying this is not an AI bubble pop, nor is it a set of financially stressed conditions and nor is it a yen carry trade unwind. Okay. And that's absolutely continuing to be invalidated as well. The Dixie again another left translated and failed daily cycle perhaps. Okay, happy days. Can't say we didn't see that coming. Again, can't say we're not on our way down to that 3ear cycle low. And again, a little bit of tell that to the bond market action, right? We're talking about seeing the rates back up a little bit. Okay, fine. We'll probably see that a little bit more. But is this a breakout or is this trade really crowded? You know, I think it's pretty obvious to anyone that's been here any length of time at all that no matter whether these go slightly higher first or just reject straight from here and continue lower, they ultimately are going to resolve lower because we've got to put more cuts on the table. And that's simply because we're overly restrictive pertaining to the labor market deterioration and the inflation, which by the way is no longer sticky. It's probably actually extremely heavily disinflationary and that's why they don't want to release the data for for the masses to figure out until January. By the way, notice how that is the new timeline for releasing all the data. They're going to now give us the prior couple of months in January. And again, suspicious timing because that's kind of the cut off point for where we'd expect any left translation in the current weekly cycle, not just for Bitcoin, but for stocks and for gold as well. All of that is due to kind of left translate sometime around there. And then if we do get left translation, that of course is bearish implications for the cycle walking forward. We'd expect a couple more left translations and fail. and then we'd be able to zoom out and say all is completely operating within the realm of expectation.
So, if it's your first time on this channel, you're probably thinking, "What on earth is this guy on about, right? This guy seems like he's lost his mind." To be completely honest, if it's your first time on this channel, I doubt you probably made it this far. Okay, but for everyone else, I I think it's pretty fair to say we're well on top of this situation. We're probably going to continue to be on top of this situation. And as the crowd continues to build and continues to become more one-sided, hopefully we can do what we normally do, which is take the opposite side of the crowd when it matters the most. So, I'm your boy Camel. Click here to get started with all things cycles. Okay, what else are you going to do whilst we wait for the dust to settle? Have a fantastic weekend and until next time, all the best. Cheers. Bye.
>> Finance contrarian. No fear, no shame. Sticking to his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. Camel finance key ride.