Transcription
Global markets are currently experiencing significant volatility, or in other words, a seismic situation. If you look at equities, you'll see a significant drop, especially in tech stocks, whether from Korea, Taiwan, or the US. At the same time, you'll see a significant drop in crude oil, a drop in gold, but the dollar index is at a new high. This is creating a situation where we need to understand the overall big picture for equities, the market, the economy, and post-war. Let's assume there's no war. What scenario is developing after that? So, there are many prominent questions (sound of clearing throat) that people want to know about gold, equities, and the economy. To answer these three important questions, I'm joined by your favorite guest and a very good friend, Ritesh Sir. Ritesh Jain is joining us from Canada. Sir, thank you so much, and so many people have been waiting for you. People message me daily on my live show, asking me to call Ritesh Sir. So I said, "Let's talk." So, Sir, let's start with what's happening in the world right now? I mean, what's going on with equities, crude, gold, bond yields, etc.?
Look, let's talk about the economy and equities first; that's easy. Actually, until January and February, no one asked what was happening. Because everyone could connect the dots, and we can see how things are going. This war started on February 27th. Once the war started, it's a simple thing: if there's a war and Iran is involved, the price of crude will go up. Right? So, the money that should have gone into crude went into semis, semiconductors, chips, memory, etc. So, you can assume that people said, "No, we don't have a problem with oil." We have a problem with all three. After February, well, before that, we're in a world known as rolling bubbles. What is a rolling bubble? First, let me explain a rolling bubble to you, so you'll understand what's going on. A rolling bubble is something I didn't coin. It was coined by Kevin Moore four years ago. Brilliant Guy, we have so much money in the system and all of us get information at the exact same point of time that we all chase one thing and after some time the valuation of one thing which should reach a certain level in two-three years, reaches it in two-three months because everybody is chasing because of this democratization of information. Meaning, if the market is bad today, it is only because of the democratization of information because there is no information symmetry left.
So, do you think what used to happen earlier, if you wanted to invest in something, you could think about it and do complete research on it, you could sit with the equity research team and think, yes friend, we will buy even after 15 days, so we have a runway of 3 years or 5 years. Today, that runway is only of two or three months because the person holding the CIAO position in a mutual fund and the person sitting on Twitter, they have the same information. How do you interpret it? Secondly, due to the democratization of information, not everyone is getting information at the same time. Everyone enters into each asset simultaneously. An asset that should revalue in three years revalues in two to three months. Then it becomes overvalued. Then you enter a new one. So that bubble bursts. A new bubble is created. You saw the gold price in January-February. I said in November-December that gold will touch 5000 in 2026 and silver will touch 100. I thought it would happen in January, but due to the democratization of information, the money that was meant for oil went into semi-chips, memory, etc. In fact, those who were not participating in it started underperforming. Even those who had invested in hyperscaler companies, their major 7 companies, also started buying it. Then those who had allocation in India started underperforming and they also started buying the same thing. Then what information came? Hey friend, the market cap of Taiwan and South Korea is higher than the market cap of India. We have two companies in South Korea. 50% of the index. Right? There is a company in Taiwan which is 40% of the index. You call this a market, no, this is the market. Yes, they are correctly positioned at the right point of time. But you understand the pain of a fund manager that friend, I am sitting right. I have a 5 year view. But that 3 Within a month, something else will move, and it will move so big that if I don't participate, I'll lose money to whoever is participating. The biggest losers in all this are the hyperscalers. Why? They were doing capex, and their prices doubled or tripled on memories, chips, and semiconductors. So now you'll have to pay two or three times the price to get the same quantity of all these things. What is bursting right now? The semis bubble is bursting. Or is the AI bubble bursting? Bubble busting is a very big thing. Busting is a very strong word. So I take back my words. I don't know what bursting means. I say it's deflating. Slowly deflating. These chips that they make are a cyclical industry. It's not like we have to mine asteroids. This industry boom scenario happens every three or four years. But what did Micron say yesterday? No, we're not going to increase capacity. Last time, we had a large capacity increase, and Apple hit us even harder, so we're not going to increase it. So, what does Apple's CEO say, crying, "Because of Micron, I'm having to raise prices by 20 rupees. Apple fell by 6 rupees yesterday." This must be the second or third time I've seen Apple fall by 6 rupees. That's a stock like that. A 6 rupee drop is a big deal. We, the hyperscalers, are trapped because they've invested so much money in data centers and AI. We've already taken a lot of money to SpaceX. And then the results of Micron just came out, and it's clear that I'm taking everyone's money. We're also taking Samsung and Hyo HX, and you've seen that someone earning $00 has already received a bonus of $100,000. The whole world is paying these three companies. But these three companies aren't engaged in asteroid mining. This is a cyclical business. Yesterday, Samsung said something. They said they were increasing capacity. I was just wondering who among them would say they were increasing capacity. As soon as they say they're increasing capacity, their repricing starts becoming lower. Secondly, if China enters any industry, profit margins drop to zero. Cloud and open AI models are excellent. But try using Deep Seek, 70 to 80% is the same. Our cloud tokens started running out two months ago. They used to run out very quickly. The team got frustrated. I'm like that: I won't give anything above $20. I don't want $200. Those $20 tokens are useless to us. But if you start going into open orders, at least some work is happening. So why should we give these companies trillion-dollar valuations? Suddenly, that thought has crossed people's minds. [Sound of clearing throat] All these things are being made from chips. India isn't needed for this. So, India, the stock that people used to talk about six months ago, has a market cap higher than India. The price of Invidia hasn't moved anywhere in eight months. It's been nine months, eight months. It probably broke below 200. I didn't pay attention. It hasn't moved anywhere in nine months. Microsoft is at a price below its 12-month low. What is the market waiting for right now? Will any of these companies cut capex? They won't. Because it might not be giving them returns. I already know from Meta what Meta is saying that I will cut Capex, he said no, I will cut Capex, he told his team that we will create something new in the prediction market, see today we are in a world of narrative, you buy the narrative, profits come later, profits come later, you bought the narrative of AI, the promise of narrative of all these companies that something will happen, like SpaceX says I will do something worth one trillion dollars in 5 years, so you are buying it, otherwise why is Toyota at 15th the valuation of Tesla, because you buy Tesla's narrative. We are in this brave new world where narratives matter more than anything else. So, narrative is getting busted in front of you in the world. Suddenly everyone is starting to doubt it. Today the CEO of Uber said a very interesting thing. He was an investor in Uber. He said a very interesting thing. They say, friend, what are you saying, that we will eliminate cancer, you know, we will eliminate this, you are not able to make basic models, do you keep talking about cancer, this Uber investor says. Yes, suddenly doubts have started coming but my point is the same, look AI is like internet, it is a revolutionary thing for us but this revolutionary thing is for you and me, if we can use it properly then there would be enough business in the world which will become productive. Focus now on two things. One, cost of capital will rise. Two, because these hyper scalers are no more giving cash. They are taking the cash from everybody in equity and in bonds both. We Amazon also raised money for 5 years in Canada at 6 taka. The cash that used to come into the market was largely from buybacks. Now you have started issuing stocks, so the cost of capital will rise. And if you issue bonds, then for everyone [nasal sound] the capital cost of bonds will rise. Right, so the cost of capital will rise. If the cost of capital will rise, the companies that will do well are those that have a capital surplus, which have assets on the ground, which don't have to raise capital. Second, those companies that will perform well are those that can integrate AI and be productive. Today, in my small company, I can see how things that used to take two or three days are now done in half an hour with AI. I was talking to the CEO of a digital insurance company the day before yesterday. He gave me the exact example. Ritesh says, "Our productivity has improved." But if we talk to big insurance companies, they have no idea about all this. Remember, 10 years ago, in IT companies, mid-level and top-level employees made so much money that they became complacent. And they didn't allow lower-level employees to advance. That's the problem with IT, isn't it? Big companies are like elephants. It takes time for them to move. So, the winners in this world are smaller companies. The companies that can integrate AI. In the US, the small-cap index is at an all-time high. We broke out. Right? Here today, it's up 23 percent. The MAX is down 60 percent. Very true. The Russell 2000 is at a new high. Are you seeing it in India? [Laughter] Sir, you've seen Micropay up 27% in the last three years. You can call it a bubble. If you can, you'll have to call the US one a bubble too. Yes, very true. But I can understand the Indian market. You might say, "It's micro-cap, in the hands of a few people." The Indian public is invested in micro-cap and small-cap markets. Why is small-cap breaking out in the US? It's a global market, not a very big market. Why is it breaking out? It's worth considering. It's outperforming the large-cap markets. It is outperforming most markets, and it has started outperforming semis. So, I'm just looking at two things: first, the cost of capital will rise. Whoever needs to raise capital or debt will see their valuation multiple rise. Secondly, I want to be with the companies that would be the winners of this AI product. AI is seeing a huge productivity boom. Naval Ravikant said a year ago that the time is coming when everyone will have billion-dollar companies. We are single startups. A month ago, the first billion dollar startup came from a person from digital insurance companies. I met him and saw how big insurance companies will get disrupted in India, but the smaller guys who are able to navigate because this is a tool like the internet. It is a tool for us and it is used for productivity. We are using it for productivity. So this world is changing in front of you.
So Ritesh Sir, can we say that AI is a very good thing. It enhances productivity. It is a very good technology. But the narrative that has been built around it is superlative astronomical valuations and first do capex with your own money. Now they are raising bonds. Today itself I even showed how much they have raised approximately 275 billion dollars in the last three months. Even large companies will see rising costs of capital, overvaluation, and further increases in interest rates. If it's in the US, it will be an even bigger problem. So, this deflation you're talking about, I'm just saying it's bound to happen. Look, I'll show you a chart of deflation. But you're absolutely right. What happens is, initially, a new narrative emerges: every Tom, Dick, or Harry company starts getting good valuations. Then, when that narrative goes bust, there are... Some last man standing who are actual winners, even in AI hardware, even in this ecosystem, I am not talking about those who use AI, even in AI hardware system, proper system, but once the system is cleanly turned on, you will know who it is, this is what happens every time, you will know for the time being I am only focused on this, where will the productivity come, this will come, that is where I am focused on, but yes there is a deflation narrative now which has started happening, you have seen the cost of capital in a deflation, cost of capital rise, bond spreads widen suddenly, this has happened in the last one and a half months, so for that I wanted you to show me that chart, if you can, I will explain what has happened. Yes sir, this is the chart. So [sound of clearing throat] second, let's take Trump's nomination. You know, start of the year. You look at the gold price, 2 years, and 30 years. So, you have to look at 30 years - 2 years, and 2 years - 30 years. Whenever this spread widens, meaning -1.39 is the highest spread you can see in this, and -71 is the smallest spread you can see in this. Correct, whenever this spread widens, banks want to lend money. Why? Banks borrow short in the short term and they lend long. And if the spread widens, they want to borrow more in the long term. That's where we make money, right? And whenever this spread widens, meaning there's more in the minus. Whenever liquidity is expanding, okay? When this spread starts narrowing, it can narrow in two ways: short term and long term. Collapse. Short term goes up, and long term goes down. This is non-age bearish flattening. Bullish flattening means the short-term moves higher and the long-term moves lower. Okay? So, the short-term and long-term spread is now 71%. This tells you that liquidity in the system is tightening. Okay? When the dollar's liquidity in the system tightens, then the dollar index goes up. You reduce liquidity in the system. You know that if liquidity increases, the dollar index will go down. If liquidity decreases, the dollar index will go up. So, the dollar index just touched a new 52-week high. True, this spread has reached 71. I can assure you that if this spread goes back above 1%, gold will be back higher. If this spread goes from 71 to 54, gold and bitcoin are the starting point. Equities will fall like nine tens. Equities are getting tight. Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset. Bitcoin is only 10-12 years old, but first comes bitcoin, then gold, and then equities. You've started seeing that bobble in equities as well. Right now, equities aren't moving anywhere. Right? All because of this particular reason. This is a chart from the day before yesterday. Not yesterday. This is a chart from the day before yesterday. I had done the date till the day before yesterday, June 24th. The day before yesterday, you saw gold below 4000. Right? You saw the dollar index at a one-year high. Because imagine this index was double this. 71, right? It was around 1.4 just 6 months ago. Just 6 months ago. Just 6 months ago. Absolutely the market is assuming this. So the market is increasing short term rates and long term rates are automatically coming down. Talking about deflation. In deflation, you want what you want to buy? Long term bonds. Long term bonds. Correct. In inflation, you want to sell long term bonds. Right? What is called term premium. Correct. What you are finding in front of you is global liquidity is tightening. There is one more thing. China actually said there is one more thing which happens to gold. When this war started, China was adding a lot of liquidity to the system before that. When the war started, after March 3-5, it stopped adding liquidity and started withdrawing liquidity. You must have noticed that CNY started appreciating. When [sound of clearing throat] you withdraw liquidity, your currency gets tight and your currency starts depreciating. In March, April, May, and June, the currency actually appreciated CNY because you were withdrawing it from the liquidity system. The biggest marginal buyer of gold in the world is not Americans. Americans don't even know what gold is. We, the biggest marginal buyer of gold in the world, are Chinese. Look, Americans have a lot of assets. It is for investment. The Chinese had only one asset, first real estate, which got finished in 2016-17. After that, China pushed all the money of its people into equity, they don't do much, they put it into gold. Gold and they want their currency to devalue versus gold. Which was beautifully working till the first week of March. After the first week of March, even they stopped reducing, they stopped adding liquidity to the system. So China gave the first hit to gold. This is the second hit to gold. Now for the first time today I found that China is increasing the repo in the system. Increasing the liquidity. Because the data of China has started coming very bad. Secondly, if this spread becomes Biden. Will people take Kevin Warsh seriously? A new Fed Governor comes and says, "Price stability, price stability, price stability," then people will take him seriously. But let me also tell you that if he is taken seriously and this spread keeps narrowing, okay, we will see equity markets collapse. If the equity market in the US collapses or they go into recession, understand that as of today, their fiscal deficit is 7% of the GDP. In good times, whenever they go into recession, their fiscal deficit expands by 5 percentage points on the starting base. Their fiscal deficit will become 12 taka. Secondly, their tax collection has already started collapsing. In January-February, their tax collection was 8 to 10 taka. In March, April, May, it has come down to 2 taka. If Kevin Wash wants price stability, and he's right, I want two-thirds inflation, then you should assume the US will go into a deep trap within six months. The equity markets, and gold, will be the least of anyone's concerns. We will fall like nine points. So, I'm assuming that won't happen. But for now, a new Fed governor has arrived. You'll call him the Chairman, you'll want to give him face value. So, the market is taking him at face value. That's why we've got cold feet. Now, what you mentioned here paints a scenario. Kevin Wash also commented, and he even said that his target range of 2% is currently hovering above 4%. The latest rate hike, which came the day before yesterday, presents a complete scenario of rate hike because it will take time to fall from 4% to 2%. If you don't hike rates, it won't happen automatically. So, the market will do the rate hike. Okay. He said something very interesting. Yes, I'm just saying that a rate hike scenario is developing. They're talking about it, and Bank of America is saying three highs, and the Bank of America is saying two highs. All these narratives are circulating. So, this is one scenario. The second scenario, at the same time, is that crude oil is falling, causing inflation to shoot up worldwide. Correct, correct. So, the impact of that. And third, I think gold will stand in stark contrast to that, so even if you try to create so much liquidity again, it will be difficult. So, please explain the correlation between the three. So, first, gold is already discounted to rate hikes. Okay? Two-year bond yields and Fed rates always move in tandem, exactly the same. [Sound of clearing throat] So, two-year moves first, then the Fed rate moves later. The market actually tells the Fed what to do. If it is 4:15 today, then you can assume that almost two rates are high for gold and everyone has discounted it. Yes, correct. Because it is trading at 4:14. So he took two highs. If it is gold, then your gold has already become four for five, then what is he discounting? Two rates are low, two rates are high, secondly, this Fed, this Fed Chairman is very interesting. What did he say, friend, don't look at me. Yes, I will not tell you which is very good for people like me. Look, we all had become used to spoon feeding. Today some Fed governors are going to speak. Let's see what they say. The last two or three Fed governors have spoken, they have not said anything in the last one week. He is saying, well what to do with the old data, we have to drive the car, we will see the current data, as per the current data you are absolutely right, the oil has collapsed but I have three months old data, on the basis of which policies were made earlier, if the oil is low then the PC will automatically come down. Inflation will come down automatically, so this is it, there, this Fed chairman is saying, guys, you decide, I'm not going to decide for you. I'm not going to spoon-feed you. So if the two-year bond deal starts coming down automatically, and instead of two rates, it starts coming down to one rate. You think about 30 years remaining there, two years comes down to less than 4%. We will go to 71.90. If it goes to 90, the dollar index starts coming down. Correct, gold goes up by itself, or of course, right now, unlike the previous governor, the previous governor used to tell what we will do. Now he is telling the market, you tell us what to do. [laughter]. The owners are on people like us, as well, have to now look at the data, every data which is coming down, and interpret it in a way. I think it should be interpreted not what Fred will interpret. So, he doesn't need to tighten anything. Oil will automatically come down, liquidity will ease. I mean, oil is a small example. Oil will automatically go up, liquidity will tighten. He doesn't even need to tighten the rates. So, again on July 28th. There's a meeting with him. He won't do anything. Look, he won't do anything. He won't do anything. And anyway, that's why he won't do anything. Let Reese tell you. He's forming three or four task forces. Yes. Five task forces, or he's saying, man, we had included something 30 years ago in the inflation numbers. Even today, people are looking at the same thing. The world has changed. Our economic structure has changed. Okay? You have to update us on all that. Hmm. So once that number is released, it will do everything until that point. What will happen next? Your market volatility will increase. All of us will have to start interpreting the numbers in our own way. Earlier, we used to think only from one point of view: what the Fed thinks? Right now, the Fed is saying, tell me what to think. A very interesting change is taking place. Fed communication is nonexistent. Actually, communication has stopped; nothing has been said. No one has said anything, neither of the two Fed governors has said anything, so this is a very interesting change. So, perhaps there is a slight premium on that as well. Can I put it this way? In the past, the Fed or the RBI used to manage the mess created by governments. Now the RBI is saying, "No, first tell me what you're going to do. Then I'll tell you what to do." Yes. And they're saying, "You'll do it yourself." Imagine that the All-80s are gone tomorrow. End the war that started. Inflation will automatically come down. But oil has gone to 80. This two year will automatically become 440. I am giving a small example. 44 means if oil is the only variable inflation is a simplified example. Simplified 444 will become half. We will see the yield curve become narrower because we believe that the long end will manage it, the yield curve will automatically become narrower. Gold will come down, dollar index will go up. Earlier we were told all these things. Now we have to interpret it. Now we have to interpret it. Which is a very interesting change. All of us will now have to earn money, yes you know, by using our own brain. Exactly homework, if you trust me then do your homework, read, write and interpret it. Absolutely, fixed income guys are the best position for it. The answer to every asset is in fixed income. So, as I am talking about this, we will start doing our homework and will focus only on these strands. Very interesting. So, this chart is very interesting for the viewers to understand. Look at the two-year yield, then look at the 30-year yield. Look at their difference and correlate its rise and fall with gold and the dollar index. Meaning, to sum up, I am not saying it is 100%, I am just saying it is one of the variables. Or now tell us, we have understood analysis, interpretation, how to interpret data, how to do situation analysis. But what is your view on these three things: equity, gold, crude? Let's see down the line in calendar 26 itself. I am not able to tell you this right now because I also want to see the data changing in front of me. Okay, okay, I am facing some problem in Hyperscaler. The money that went into AI is moving. Okay? The chips are coming out from there through Semi. The exit has started slowly. So I told you only two things in equity. This is where I'm very comfortable investing. We are the ones who don't need capital. We already have assets on the ground. We don't need capital, we need debt. Secondly, the tough part is finding the beneficiaries. It could also be sectors, but that has become difficult right now. I'm holding off on the fixed income part a little longer. I'm observing it a little more. I need a few more data points so I can draw it properly and do a correlation analysis. Having said that since I'm on your channel, I'll tell you this: If only this data for US debt to GDP remains, which is today's data. If even this data remains, US debt to GDP will explode further. Debt will go through the rules. You need to own gold. No doubt. Then I don't have an end game. If you say the US will become productive, industrialization will happen, and debt will automatically come down. That's another matter, but I keep watching their debt every month. Their daily deficit continues to move up. Their deficit will reach $40 trillion any day. 126% [sound of clearing throat] day. So their GDP is not rising more than the day. Actually, debt is still facing the GDP. The end result is the same, but you can always see 20-30% corrections in any market. True, always okay. So I am very comfortable with the view, but for the time being, there is a euphoria and it happens, which you can only know on Twitter. You can know on Twitter only. Yes. And as I have explained to you, we are in rolling bubbles. We took out money to put it in Space X. Now after SpaceX suffers losses, they will go somewhere else. Most retail people will never make money. I can assure you that because emotions play a very big role in today's world. You want to go into things that are moving. You don't want to go into things that are not moving. The movement is made by things that no one is watching. Things that no one is watching. Absolutely. Right now, everyone, you and [sound of clearing throat] anyone, S5 HX and Samsung, so let's be honest. No one had heard of S5 HX three months ago. People must have started buying it a month ago. When bids came in SpceX, bids came two or three times at 135. We opened at 150. The average purchase price of a retail guy is above 181. We are currently at 152. Buy it, friend. You don't even know the value of SpaceX. A company that was valued at $350 billion last year in the private market is now worth almost $1.8 trillion. You can extract some value from it, and this is just a narrative. Everyone is chasing the next bubble, and they're doing it because they can't make ends meet. The cost of living is going up, and they have access to so many apps they can play like video games. And then there's Twitter, where people don't want to listen to analysis; they want to see the next trading tip. That way, it won't work. Most people will transfer their hard-earned wealth to very few people who are patient. Yes, sir, you said a very interesting thing. I'll tell you another interesting thing. We decided to do this show. But you sent me this graphic, and we showed it. Earlier this morning, I recorded a show, and the show's title was "I'm Feeling a Crush-like Situation in AI." In it, I explained that the expansion that's begun with this date is dangerous. "The game is getting messed up now." I also sensed that the AI story has gone overboard. It's unstoppable. So, my question, Sir, is that one thing you mentioned at the beginning is very important for investors: right now, we're trading in the Information Age, where democratization has taken place. Thanks to Twitter and all the social media, everyone has access to it at the same time. Whether you're in Zuberi Talaiya or in New York, everyone is consuming it at the same time. So, what should a seasoned investor do? How can they crowd out this phenomenon that's happening all over the world? How can they avoid it? And how can a serial investor make money? Look, Jeremy Grantham's interview aired yesterday. He gave a very interesting interview. He's been in the market for 60 years and has seen all the bicycles. It was very interesting, so I was reading it. Since you're asking me this question, I'm also seeing this situation after a long time. See, before 2021-22, this situation didn't exist. True. In the last three to four years, this situation has worsened a lot. And in such a situation, in a very short period of time, every two to three months, a new bubble is getting created. Either we or you are smart enough to understand that bubble, enter it, and exit it. Otherwise, it's ultimately over a period of time. You have to go by how the liquidity will move over a period of time. Forget the short term. What do we governments want over a period of time? What do we governments want? I made a slide called industrialization over deindustrialization. Okay? So, I included some 10-12 things in it. Electrification. Okay? And then manufacturing versus services, blue collar versus white collar. So that's how I invest. And sometimes, every year, there are three months when the market massively underperforms. And then you say, "I don't understand it, or someone else doesn't understand it, or everyone else does." Isn't it just me who's facing the same problem every season? Every season, investors who have watched the market for 202 years laugh at the retailer. We laugh at him because he's participating in that bubble, because he's not using his brain. But let me also tell you, he's incurring losses, but you don't know about his losses because his results aren't in the public domain. No, they aren't. But you're laughing at someone whose results are in the public domain. I would still say the noise. You have to put the noise aside. There is a money that we used to lose, which we tell you that we want to trade. So people ask me what to do? Look, there are two types of money. One is trading money. You can do whatever you want with that. And the other one is long term wealth creation. Give it to the people who you think understand what is going on. They will underperform for one or two years, three years. That is okay. But in a cycle they will make massive out of money. We understand what is going on. But what we cannot say is they cannot participate in every bubble. Hmm. And there are some times you miss it, but you can't participate in every crazy thing. So, a seasoned investor either goes on Twitter, it's his money, like if you want to lose, that's your money. It says zero, right? 92% of all investors lose money. Robinhood also has the same statistics. The entire data in the production market has come. Most people lose money. Correct? Then you don't want to earn that money. You trade. You know, you're doing it for fun. Fun is the right thing. [laughs]. Well, what answer should I give in that? Well, what should I give in that right now? But we struggle. It's not like that. I also struggle. And then people keep on asking. I saw on Twitter that the goal was broken. That's not the case. We can't predict the next three months, whether something is going up or down. Correct? In Germany, during hyperinflation, there were four times when gold went down by 40%. If you look at the chart, you'll be shaken by it. But the Only the person who made money, what the one who said we know, what is the end result, absolutely sir, what is the end result, investing becomes so easy, sir, I know one thing very well, which I learned from you people, that the day does not evaporate, someone has to bear somewhere, yes, this is not something that will disappear, no one can make it disappear anywhere, you can inflate it, inflate it away, or default it, the government world is in a day trap, how will it turn out correctly, this is the only answer, if you have the answer, investing is a very simple game, very true, very true, and right now I have already told you two things in AI, you will have to work hard, but hard work in that, down to the beneficiaries, no doubt, very true. So I think many people will get answers to their questions about gold, market, debt after hearing this, because, well, there is one more interesting thing, sir. Nowadays, people are addicted to instant coffee. Tell me now, what's going to happen tomorrow? Don't talk about the day after tomorrow. For that, you should go to an astrologer. The same thing is happening in the Indian market: tell me what's going to happen tomorrow. Don't call me knowledgeable, but the real thing is the same because you also said a very good thing that the ability to play bubbles is either you are God and you are able to play every bubble, otherwise one bubble will make you poor, then you will not even be able to trade, you will be finished in one bubble because if you make money on one bubble, become super confident then you leverage. Everybody is leaving in South Korea. Margin debt has gone through the move in Taiwan. In South Korea, people are breaking their policies and even insurance policies and investing money in the market. Sir, in India, the MTF book is worth Rs 12,27,000 crore. Which book? The book of MTF margin trading funding. Well, I don't have the numbers. I am hearing this for the first time. People worth crores are trading through margin trading funding. So, are you seeing this micro gap now? Hey, it's going on, right? So put it on, put it on. That's a dangerous game guys, anyway, it was a very interesting discussion, we got answers to many questions and Hitesh sir came, thank you so much sir, and now if there is any new development, I will come to you again. Anything else sir, you want to mention nothing, good enough, thank you so much sir, thank you, thank you, Neeraj, bye.