Transcription
[snorts] Hey everybody, Kimosabi here giving you an update for very minimal price action. Not much to update. Going sideways for a solid month now. Um, but what would you expect after a nice little markdown here? Uh, price chopped around sideways for three months up here. This can last three months. You really never know. Um, this does look like an accumulation on lower time frames. I'm probably going to see a swipe of the lows just based upon the volume signature that I'm seeing. You had a selling climax here. You had previous support or preliminary supports. It broke down into the selling climax. Secondary test, you had lower volume on that. Price rallied up. You could say this is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 for an Elliot wave pattern. ABC back down. You're doing a 1, 1212 and it breaks to the upside and your accumulation structure comes without a spring. If you do end up getting a spring, watch for price to come and swipe the lows. And the volume signature should be less than the selling climax, but likely higher than the secondary test over here. So you'd see the volume in between those two numbers, somewhere right in the middle there. If you get a spike of the lows, uh, target for that, yeah, that's anybody's guess, but you would essentially take the current range, just draw a box on our current range, high to low. The range is probably here, I had to guess. And a range break would take you down to 73,000, somewhere around there. Does make sense. Maybe challenge these lows over here. You did have three drives to a low that happened there. When this price came up, it did not come back down and check that as previous support. So maybe that could be your target. One of those two wicks could be the target and then this low stays intact. Totally possible. Depends on how how much accumulation is potentially happening here. If it is indeed accumulation, if it's a markdown or redistribution, you would expect a spike up and then come back inside this range. Then it'll break down and probably continue a markdown phase if I had to guess. But if price spikes this local liquidity up here and then comes down, that that would look perfect for a little up thrust spike and leave the liquidity up here, take the lows and then go grab that liquidity. Pretty simple to mark off the liquidity. You can see where those two equal highs are, their stop losses above there. So, I would mark that as a liquidity zone. And also, our current area down here, there's equal lows. So, really just the pattern is just tightening and tightening. I I would trade it from one liquidity to the other. So, if this breaks down here and takes lower liquidity, maybe even takes out that 84,000 wick um or test those lows at 85200 and then pops back up, then I would target the upper liquidity and then see where it goes. I'd watch for a sell setup though at 925. That is kind of the pattern that I'm watching to say that this is going to continue and and complete the pattern down there.
Um, in Elliot wave theory, you'd probably call that a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and that would get the market maximum bearish in my opinion because you have what would look like one, two, three, four, and five. That could be counted as five waves. So then any retrace would likely be sold into. You'd likely have some kind of ABC pattern and then people will sell into that saying there's your bull trap and now we go down. Um, I would suspect that you go to all-time highs though because everybody's going to be selling there because you have five waves down. That's the top and three-wave pullback. Nobody wants to miss this short. I'd say there probably have supply coming in there. So, you're probably going to have a push down. So, it is a valid short. Um, but I wouldn't expect it to break down any lower, especially if it takes out these previous lows at 74,000. But watch watch for the patterns that are being painted. Like, if this does end up looking like a five-wave, that's painted on the charts. The the liquidity providers and whoever is running this market, people that have more money than I do, will paint these charts to make them look a certain way to achieve a certain result. They either want you to buy or they want you to sell. And right now in linear scale, hey, is that a breakout? Well, it doesn't look great because it got rejected. But you do have liquidity above with those two equal highs. So I would say you're likely going to take those out before coming back down. And then it's just a matter of how far down do you go. If price continues to chop here for a few weeks, that's actually showing relative strength. And you may just swipe these local liquidities and maybe get into this wick a little bit down at 82 and it might bottom there, but maybe more sideways. Price is either going to have a correction sideways and up or it's going to take out the anybody who's trying to buy this in my view. You can also put it in log scale and log scale it's not yet broken out and log scale I think shows you the trend better than linear scale when measuring trend you do have your low, lower high, lower low, high so far. You'd expect continuation of the trend, lower low until it's not. So if you get the price action to come down to 75, 77 even and then close a higher high on the daily, then you have a higher high, buy the higher low at previous supports and take it on up.
Zooming in locally here on the 1 hour, um I did see a post on Twitter. Camel Finance shared a a post with me on somebody that was talking about this choppy price action, which is why, you know, we're dealing with this at the end of the year, low liquidity markets, and really they're just taking liquidity where they can. Um but the price action the way it looks how the the rejections seem very sharp like there's very very sharp selling that's I in my view the way it looks to me is you have a sharp selloff and then price gets bought back up. Sharp selloff, price gets bought back up. Sharp selloff, price is getting bought back up. So it looks like somebody is slamming the price down into their bids um and also shaking people out of the market. Does that mean price goes up from here? No. This can this can keep shaking out. The the the idea of accumulation would happen in a range and they'll buy anywhere in here. They'll buy up there, they'll buy down here. It's whoever's willing to sell, they're willing to buy it. If this is a distribution or a redistribution, they want people to buy the dip. So, they're going to make it look more bullish. So you'd actually probably see more of the spikes to the upside than flushes down. So if you saw a lot of spikes to the upside where they're making it look bullish, they want people to buy any retrace, buy any dips. Right now you have people that are saying, "I want to get out of this thing. Let me get out a little higher." And it's rejecting, not giving the opportunity to do so. But is is it bullish or bears? It's still in a downtrend. So just looking right here, they're tightening the range here. So I'd expect this lower liquidity and upper liquidity to eventually be taken. Which direction does it go first? Flip a coin. You're you're dealing with this in the box before the range breaks. Uh, there's really nothing to do. Likely if the range breaks to the downside, look at those previous supports, watch for it to come back inside of this consolidation and then trade it to the upper liquidity and take your profits there. Potentially open up a short and have your stop loss upwards of 94 and see if it goes down. If it breaks to the upside, takes that liquidity at like 92,000, comes back down and breaks above that liquidity grab, then you're targeting above there at like 95, 96, maybe all the way to 98 and maybe higher. And then once a trend is established on a daily in a 4 hour, if you're making higher highs and higher lows, then you can buy the dips and your invalidation becomes the lowest the lowest close of the higher low.
So, that was a looked like a lot of price action on on a 1 hour chart, but on a daily chart, you got this little bit of price action. Nothing even happened yet. So, and I'm zooming back out to the daily to show the entire move down. What is the intention of this move down? Is the move down intended to make the market participants bearish in order to acquire the asset to resume the markup phase? Or are they trying to make it look bullish so that people buy the dip? I I'd argue they're trying to make it look very bearish, convincing everybody the bare market has started. This topped right at the right moment um of the four-year cycle. Looks like a top. There's a strong argument for that to be a top I I would say and you you may come down into the four-year cycle low. But if this reaccumulates here and starts moving up, then you have a higher high, higher low scenario. It may take some time though. [sighs] So what is the intention of the down move? Well, in a few videos past, I showed the comparison of how this price action was mimicking um what we're doing now. The 2022 looks like the same wave structure down and the intention of that was to accumulate especially in this region. Uh current price action, you have the same rise, the dip, pop up, pop up. So maybe we're about to drop down and take out the low and then grind down there a little bit before popping back up. But I've already shown the similarities of this wave structure um to current price action. But the consideration is what is the intention of that move was to accumulate to get everybody bearish. Everybody wanted 10K. They wanted lower. They didn't get it. And then you can argue the aftermath after coming out of that accumulation. The market was so bearish that everything looked like a three-wave move up and we're going to break down again. This was a three-wave move up to break down again. Or the when the ETFs were launched. I mean, there's your ABC right there. I I know many people were calling tops there and made a new all-time high after grinding people out again. It just looked like you took out previous all-time high and now you're going to resume a downtrend for some bigger ABC. Well, market pushed up again. So, nobody wanted to buy this as it was moving up. It was essentially climbing a wall of worry. And if the same psychology happens with this current price action, you'll have a similar mindset going on where price is making higher highs and higher lows and it continues a markup phase and you're not going to want to buy it because every rally gets sold into. Every breakout's a fake out and long periods of consolidation gives you time to doubt the rallies. There's there's plenty of methods that the market uses to get you on the wrong side. And really the only way that I'm able to stay kind of even keel or even on the right side of the market when I'm trading is just paying attention to the trend. Whether you're making higher highs and higher lows. And I think the last video that I made was saying if you break and make a lower low close there, you have an argument for a lower high at around 92, 92K. So that would be your breakdown and a potential for price to move down. Price broke down. You get some kind of retest, back test, maybe grab that liquidity and move down. So, I can make an argument for either way. Uh, but currently, you have to say that's a lower low. You broke down out of that trend line. Now, you're just consolidating. So, look for lower liquidity, previous supports maybe. But ultimately, maybe sometime early January, you take out those lows, make it as low as like 82,000 or maybe take out that wick low really quick and bounce back up and that becomes your spring before price marks up or you get a very decent bounce. Now, this can be bearish and maybe my idea of reaccumulation here is is wrong. It ends up being wrong. Well, I would know that if price grabs liquidity and then bounces back up, that becomes my invalidation and see where it goes. But I I need a higher highs and higher lows to start here to get more bullish, some kind of breakout, something other than having a rally and then getting sold into all day. It's [snorts] not ideal.
Is it bearish? No, not necessarily. Because everybody that sold is a potential buyer in the future, just like everybody who bought is a potential seller. So, if people want to sell here, hey, cool, get out of the way. After this is in markup phase, they'll be buying back. If this is a redistribution, then you'll you'll have a markdown phase and they were right to sell here. Um, but as soon as you start making higher highs and higher lows, then you have the argument that uh you're at least bouncing, if not going for all-time highs again. But for now, I I'm just thinking towards the last week of trading in the year. Treat it like a weekend. Weekends tend to be sideways and very liquidity driven. Um, they need to push price up and get liquidity in order to acquire Bitcoin. If they do want to move price up, they need to acquire it. The the market makers and liquidity providers, they actually need the Bitcoin so they can mark it up and sell it back to the market at higher prices. If that is indeed the the campaign, if they're actually going to mark it up, they actually have to hold it. They're not going to mark up something that they don't own. Watch for a potential breakout, back test, and go or grab this liquidity at 92, flush down, and then that was your reaccumulation, and then look for a markup to at least 120. um go take that liquidity up there up here start tackling some of these liquidities or just go for alltime highs and then everybody gets to be confused for a while. [snorts] So 17 minutes into this video. I hope that was helpful. Um, be patient, wait for the price to come to you. Watch for your liquidity to the downside and liquidity to the upside. A whole lot of chop and it might take time to resolve this. Keep thumb stops tight. Have a good night.