Leaking Insider Stock Trades (Sept 24)

leaking top insider stock trades every day until they stop us. We had about 115 new insider trades come in. Most of them are going to be totally useless. It's our job to find those unscheduled and abnormal ones that could lead to outperformance.

Taking a look at the daily data here. A pretty normal day at least of recently. Well below the percent of trades that are bought buys on average, which we've been now for quite a while. Again, over the quarter, we're going to come down well below the number as well. Not a huge concern.

What we really like to see. It's a much higher signal when a bunch of insiders are buying or a much larger percent of insiders are buying. Not as strong of a signal when not as many are buying. However, it is certainly a little bit of a a more bearish signal. We're also going to start to see, as you can see overall, the number of trades starting to come down a little bit, which we'll see a lower number as we go into earning season. And we also do expect as we go into earning season, which is still a few weeks away, but insiders are going to start entering blackout periods, not be able to make discretionary buys and sells. So, it's mostly going to be pre-planned 10B51 sales or some 10% owners buying the stock or directors buying the stock or that kind of thing. However, when you do start to see stock buys during right, you know, right before earnings, it's certainly more notable even though really they they shouldn't be doing that.

Let's go take a look at CEO.com. I actually want to start with Lumen Technologies just cuz yesterday they announced a business update basically on the expansion of their fiber optic network. They're expanding very quickly and we had seen we we highlighted a couple both of these insider purchases. we had actually highlighted because they're both very interesting, but especially the one by Kathleen Johnson back in a at the beginning of August. Buying the stock down here, $500,000 of the stock. As you can see, Lumen accelerates multi-billion dollar network expansion to meet soaring AI demand is why it went up 12%. But we're now up 60% since this purchase, which was notable because it's the CEO buying $500,000 of the stock. Not her largest purchase ever. But if you look back historically, her two previous purchases were very, very well timed. You had one at the end of 2023. Over the next year, obviously, the stock was up, I don't know, a bajillion percent roughly averaging 340% one-year returns, 200% 6 month, 53 month, 12, 1 month. And so this 3-month returns at 53% already up over 50% since this purchase up 63%. So, you know, one of those examples for, as we mentioned, one of the highest signal things here is the history of success. Insiders with good returns and win rates on previous trades tend to correlate with good returns going forward. But it makes sense and we had it here with Lumen Technologies.

So, let's go see if we can find anything interesting today. We'll go look at the most recent filings we have in. We'll look at the trade type. Start with purchases, sort by transaction value, and we'll go take a look here. So, not very many purchases obviously came in as I mentioned. It's going to start slowing down and there just hasn't been very many purchases, frankly. Starting at the top here, we've got Net Scope. These are all going to you can see they're the same exact amounts here. So these are all actually the same purchase which looks like iconic strategic partners is buying the stock. We can also see since there's no history here this was an IPO and so they announced a closing of initial public offering. So just buying after the IPO probably some pre-arranged agreements not going to be very interesting there.

We can look at Waterbridge here. Uh looks like this could be very interesting. $6 million and $1.5 million purchases very good returns for this James Crane guy. So let's go take a look historically. Looks like so this is going to put a little damper on the returns because it looks like his only previous history of returns is back in CO and you know obviously it is notable when an insider bought during CO because it means they took advantage of it but it's definitely going to expand their returns probably a little more or exacerbate their returns maybe is a better word a little more than probably what could be expected especially considering those are their only previous purchases. We can also see that this is a what do we have here? An underwriters option to purchase additional shares. So, looks like part of some sort of purchase agreement going on here. They don't actually mention, you know, normally they would mention that in the responses here, but looks like a director. So, some sort of underwriters offering. They just had a IPO. Again, these immediate post IPOs, there's there's normally some sort of deals in place or something. Not much for us to do there. So, kind of knocks off all those.

This one is actually a very interesting purchase here. Cassava Sciences. This company, you'll remember, got crushed after terrible trial results earlier this year. And it it was really popular because Martin Skrey shorted it kind of up here at the top and said, "Hey, this stock's going to fall." And was correct. Now, this is the first purchase since that massive fall. It's also by the CEO as we'll be able to see here. It's by the CEO. Good history of returns. At least it looks like quickly looking through them. Maybe not the maybe as we get a little longer term, not the best. And you'll notice the returns don't actually go up. So, it's most of the returns happen in the first 3 months and then it's actually pretty flat on average after that. We can look historically to see when he was buying and it looks like so some decent, you know, not so good of timing here, maybe okay timing. Pretty good short-term timing back here. Pretty good short-term timing here. Pretty good short-term timing here. So overall, I'd say this insider has a pretty good track record of timing, at least in the short term. Obviously, now with the stock down like 90% in the last year, it, you know, none of the long-term returns are going to be very good. So, I do think it's notable when we see the insider buying the stock there. And then we can even click into let's see if they tell us they got a new chief chief medical officer here. So this is also what kind of would make it a little interesting. They report positive preclinical study evaluating simlam simuam whatever for epilepsy. So now you've got or pro you know promise promising preclinical data. I believe in one of these they'll tell us when the trials going to start which frankly we're not even close to you know I feel like maybe we're getting a little ahead of ourselves here in that the trials yeah in the first half we intend to initiate a proof of concept study in the first half of 2026 so it's going to start the study I mean it's clearly good news they can they you know clearly good news but you know the real pump or dump will happen you know after this when when this trial result comes out however as we've seen before with the ramp up into some of these trial results you can get a nice little ramp as you know good results come out and people get more and more bullish on the on the the product. But with all biotech and pharma stuff, it always comes down to to those clinical trials. So the only thing this for me would have been like a clear buy. I I love getting involved in in biotechs that have like you know some some positive news coming out in an insider buying. Just keep it keep keep the position small because they can obviously blow up in your face. But the only the thing keeping me away from this now is that I think the stock is up like a trillion%. Yeah, stock's already up 20% because of that. It opened up at 270. So, it already opened. It opened at 270. What was he buying it at? He was buying it at 213 to 225. So, it's already up 20% since he purchased it, which is his average return almost already. So, because of that, it kind of takes away way the purchasing there um on my for for my opinion. So, doesn't make it interesting, but and and that's also just kind of because this was already such a popular company. uh cassava sciences was like back here it was so popular that now you have a lot of people paying attention to it. So when you see the insider buy come in, it kind of juices the stock. Obviously, obviously still if if this, you know, this could be still a good reason for you to go look into maybe this siml semiflam and and look at the tri this pre-clinical study and start to maybe come up with your own opinion because obviously long-term if if this trials go well for this, the stock's going to go up, you know, multiples from here and this 20% jump won't mean anything. but solely based on the insider purchase, you know, and the fact that we're still, you know, it's not even going to start the trials till till next year. It kind of knocks it off the list for me.

Moving on now, here we've got another one that I think is is very interesting. Arch, we've got a director, I believe, buying the stock here. Made a couple purchases. This director made both these purchases, $480,000. No history of purchases, so he won't see him. He's never bought the stock before. Stock's had a pretty good run, obviously. 20% the last year, 115% the last couple years. If we go look at no other insider buying, obviously a little bit of a negative when you start to see some insiders selling here. So, we can take a quick look to see maybe why these insiders are selling. We've got a $235,000 sale by a senior vice president, which you never like to see. Let's see if there's any note here. No note going on. So, obviously, you know, with the stock up a bit. Wouldn't wouldn't love to see that. And then we also have another one by Jason Ingeroul back here. Another sale. Another senior vice president selling the stock. A million dollar sale this time. We can take a look here. This transaction was executed in multiple trades. So no no real good explanation for those trades either. So to me, those two certainly, you know, put a little damper on on this insider trade. One one more up here. But seeing seeing this insider, you know, make two two straight trades for his first ever trades is also interesting. We'll also notice like the guy that s sold right here has not timed his sales historically well, which we can look if we just click into it, we'll notice looks like he's only sold once before back in at the end of 2020. and the stock obviously kept kept going up after that. So, not not a particularly good track record of selling for him. The other guy that sold over here, this Jason Ingresol has a slightly better track record of sales. Let's see if we can click in and see what it's looking like here. Looks like he's also only sold once before all the way back in 2018. And the stock definitely dipped some down in 7 to$6 over the next year or something. And it looks like he bought the COVID dip. So, a little bit better of a track record. However, the reason I still find these trades interesting is if we go look at some of the data on Arch Rock here. So, one, we can see it it looks like I mean, we're we're just, you know, just jumped above the the 200 day moving average, which obviously this would kind of be the momentum line if if you're playing the momentum stuff, you know, would be that line. You'd like to see it kind of hop above and stay above. But then also now if you look at the earnings consensus average here the forward this is the the next year's estimates you can see over the last year a pretty big increase in the earnings estimates from you know 137 to 167 which the stock is up 20% which is you know about what those earnings estimates are but you like to see those going up in the right direction and hopefully you'll see them continue to going up and as you can see you know stock price has been going up earnings estimate has been going up over the longer three-year time frame the other so you know positive trend both in the stock price and then also you know and hopefully it sticks above the 200 day here and then also in the the earnings per share but then if we move on to look at any news filed a mix shelf they might raise some money which you know you don't love to see we have a $30 price target here wells Fargo initiated Archrock which you could probably find somebody writing about on Twitter or something press releases a dual listing couple months ago second quarter results so nothing too too new there look at filings this so we just see this is going to be the mixed shelf this is the the two purchases We just saw this is probably earnings. So then we'll look at the transcript and this is where I think it starts to get a little interesting because we take a look at the CEO here talks about the the results the results. So they raised their quarterly dividend by 11% compared to the prior quarter and over 27% in the last year and they still have very good dividend coverage. So they've been able to raise the dividend. They also accelerated share repurchase under our program buyback given what we believe is a dislocation between stock performance and strength of the current business. So they increased that as well. And then I want to he very clearly the the CEO here says I want to be clear based on what we are experiencing in the market today in both our overall activity and bookings. We expect to grow our business and our profits through the rest of 2025 and 2026 and beyond. And confidence in short we have confidence in what we're seeing in the market, confidence in our strategy and operations. So and then he kind of excels or explains why confidence in the market. We expect growing LG exports and power generation to create significant demand pole for the new US natural gas production and midstream infrastructure including natural gas compression which is what they do as the natural gas compression. He then also says like we have confidence in our strategy and our our people which you know not as interesting but basically they're they believe LG demand is going up exports to Mexico power generation and the emerging opportunity presented by the onoring of AI data centers. So now you have a little bit of like an AI tailwind play. You know we're going to need more power. these guys are kind of in the place for that. So, you've got that sort of um industry to end, I guess, guess you would call it. So, I think all of that it at least gives you a story now for why the insider might be buying, which is really what what you want to have. You want to have some reason that you can hopefully explain why that insider might be buying. And this company, you know, you could go look at compare the the multiples of this company versus some other ones. You know, go look at like EVIDA, which they're at 10x last 12 months, which is going to be like a little higher than kind of the energy infrastructure that they're in. However, they do have higher margins. You know, they've been growing pretty well, raising estimates, so all that. So, it could they're probably not massively undervalued, even though they think they are, but just like just based on multiples, they're probably not massively undervalued. But you can you can build the story of like, you know, momentum heading in the right direction, uh, earnings heading in the right direction, and you have this story of the company is also kind of putting their money where their mouth is through increasing dividends, increasing buybacks, insider buying, and they believe that there's this tailwind in the industry. So, all of that, I think, makes our truck a very interesting insider purchase.

Star Equity Holdings. We also we did see this kind of this guy's been buying and selling at the same time. I don't He's kind of weird. Let's see if they tell us anything. This can tell us anything about what was going on here. Doesn't look like it. So, it looks like just probably some open market purchases. He made that weird purchase if you'll remember from a few days ago where he both bought and sold the stock at the same time with no real explanation. So, kind of hard to know exactly what's going on there.

Another interesting one is this next energy which we sent out in the email actually kind of before uh before before our market opened before this stock popped but now the stock is way up. Let's see what the stock actually opened up. So yeah, so actually the stock's actually up quite a bit since we you know 15% since we would have shared it in the email. Um obviously this video takes a little longer to to get cranked out. But this is another interesting play in that we've seen some insider purchasing. You you now have you have another story here basically right is the answer. We had the CEO here buying. This was during a purchase agreement which did kind of damper a little bit the the interest in this purchase. Also, his previous purchasing was was horrible. You know, negative. His timing on his previous purchases has not been good. You know, all up at the top here. So, as far as as far as just his insider trades being a signal, they haven't been very good. However, now we have a director joining him in buying the stock. And we have the stock is way up because of this reason here, which we'll actually go look. So, this one's actually going in the in the opposite direction. So, this is an interesting one because you now need to your bet here, right? That the story you're making is not like a momentum play. This is not heading in the right direction. This is a turnaround play, which it is already popped up, you know, I don't know, quite a bit since August. In the last couple months, it's already up a lot of amounts in the last in the last quarter. If we look down here at August, it was it was 128. We're now up at 210 or something like that. 210. So, yeah, nearly whatever that amount's going to be, probably 210 over 128, 60%. So, pretty killer returns recently, but we've got a little bit of an AI play again. They've secured a long-term lease on 1600 acres in Nassau County near Jackson International Airport. Stocks down 50% the last year, but the AIdriven energy innovation firm plans to develop a 200 megawatt smart micro grid on approximately 1,200 acres of the property while reserving the remaining 400 acres for potential hypers scale data center development. So now you have this AI story where obviously if they get if they are able to sign some sort of deal they they have the optionality basically to release good news about upcoming potential hypers scale data center development. Any news regarding that is going to cause the stock to pop and then obviously it provides just business potential if if they're able to monetize these quite well then they're going to make a lot more money. So that is basically the story here is that trending in the wrong direction that the stock price and the momentum of the company itself. But you could go read through the transcripts which I don't actually remember if they they talk at all about well. So I mean you can see like revenue kind of grew a ton but little up and down recently. Profits kind of up and down. Nothing nothing too great. I mean a pretty volatile business though now operating loss $25 million in non-cash stock compensation. So the the numbers aren't aren't going to be super super interesting here. But you could read through the basically you could read through kind of these filings to to get a sense from the executives how they what the what the plan is going forward. But almost certainly the plan is going to have something to do with with this increasing the amount of land that they own developing these data centers and that kind of thing. Now it's just up to you to decide like hey do I believe that this management team can can kind of follow through on that. And then obviously now in terms of just the news announcement I would probably argue that the news has been baked in. Obviously, with the stock already up 20% in in the day, that news has been baked in and now it's just whether or not they can they follow through on that news and actually turn it into something more long-term beneficial to the company is the whole story there. So, certainly an interesting insider purchase would have been more fun if we would have noticed it before or or this was even a good one because the entire purchases actually came before this filing went out. Unfortunately, this most recent one that really caught the attention is happened on the same day as the news came out. So there wasn't really I mean he bought the stock a couple days ago didn't get filed until the day the news came out. So there wasn't much time for us to do anything there.

Moving on to anything else. Not much. Hayne is kind of an interesting one because they're going through a big old turnaround which is another one. You can go read the the earnings. They're very early in their turnaround here. Um so it's a much longerterm play. However, I would also caution that it's it's very possible that these purchases because the stock is down so much in the I mean 70% in the last year and the insiders there are required to own a certain amount of stock. This could just be insiders buying more stock because they have to own a certain dollar value of the stock. So it it could be a little less interesting but that that is a turnaround plate there.

We can switch over now just to look at a few sales to see if anything interesting going on in selling land. Poorweave, more insider selling post the IPO lockup. Magnetar has been selling just tons and tons of the stock since then. An unscheduled trade sale here at an unscheduled sale. Yep. At Nvidia Corp, which never want to want to bet against the the the lead player in kind of this huge AI revolution or or if you do want to bet, you're going to want to make sure you get the timing right, and that's going to be tough. But there has been a lot of selling a lot a lot of selling since June basically at the company which if we start to if we look over a longer time frame which I guess they did do quite a bit of selling back in Q2 of 2024 and didn't really I mean the stock was flatish over the next year or so before taking off again but the insiders are clearly starting to take some chips off the table here. But again trying to time this when you know Nvidia might slow down is going to be a brutal undertaking. But quite a bit of selling by a lot of different insiders there is is interesting.

We got app point here. A bunch of selling here as well, but this is mostly due to they had dual listing on Singapore. And then if we click into any of these, this will tell you that the shares are pursuant to the secondary listing to provide liquidity in connection with the listing on the Singapore exchange. So probably not super interesting there. More corweave selling. We've had this Susan Oampo director 10% owner person has been selling quite a bit at atom here, but timing historically hasn't been good enough to to even really look into it too much. Lily selling the Lily endow or the Lily endowment selling some Lily which they've been doing for a little while.

Here's an interesting one. Thi this is kind of one of those I mean with this much momentum again this is like going to be really hard to try to time this properly. It also looks like just historically his sales as we can just see his sales timing by the CEO here has not been very good at all either. So it is notable seeing an insider selling the stock you know and he's selling quite a bit. $15 million of the stock is certainly nothing to to sneeze at. We can look down here and it looks like though it's a bunch of stock options being converted which then you'd want to look at the date exercisable and the expiration date which is we got to find six here vested installments beginning on July 6th. So they've been vested for at least a few months cuz I I would assume they're vesting every every year on July 6th and these are vesting every year on March 15th and they don't expire for a while. So in that case, you know, I think he's actually owned these for quite a bit of time would be would be my hunch. And they don't expire for to at least 2027 or even longer for the other ones. So this seems pretty discretionary in that it's not like he just gain them or that they're going to expire in the near future. But still, you know, the converting stocks, converting options in in selling that people tend to view a little less skeptically than than the open market purchases. And his timing historically hasn't been great. So, I haven't even looked into what the company what the story might be there because those weren't particularly interesting to me.

Let's see. 10B51 sales. We've got a 10% owner selling some Lens Therapeutics here. Historically, looks like they're selling track record. Looks like they're just starting to get rid of some of the stock here as the stock goes up. But not the best track record there to really dive into or see much here. Here we've got one at Argan which they had it looks like time to purchase probably well maybe not that well back there but these sales obviously haven't been tied very well. It is notable that now two sales at around the same price in the last couple of months. Could be pretty interesting but it's just a director selling the stock. Pretty sizable sale. I guess we can see if there's any any notes here. Looks like they sold it on two separate days which is kind of interesting. But I don't know that that'd be one again another company I haven't really looked into too much. I don't think the insider trade, the history for this insider is not particularly notable, but a sizable $4 million trade could be something to look at. And I guess we could just go look real quick at AGX and just see is there any news or anything. So, and this would be another thing for me. It's like kind of hard to we now immediately the momentum is in the right direction both for the stock price and for the the EPS. The earnings estimates here are are very trending very nicely. So, you know, you need something that something that's going to force these things to turn around or else the stock's just going to keep cruising in that direction. So, you can look at some news here. Doesn't look like they raise their dividend, too. Yeah, this would be one where it's like, okay, I mean, I get you're you're like really digging to try to find a reason why this insider might be selling in in a way that's actually going a notable reason like why with a good reason because they could just be selling because they need some cash for whatever. So, there's no great story at least right off the bat that I could find there.

Some more selling at Micro Strategy or now strategy I guess which has been we saw we highlighted this selling quite a bit back back in this range. So stock's been down quite a bit you know since then relatively speaking and I don't know I don't know if this sale itself this insider doesn't have a very good track record of of selling the stock except for this this bump up here. So I don't know how much I'd really buy look into just that insider's sale. If we look at Micro Strategy as a whole, we can see she's the only one selling. She or he is he or she is the only one selling, but there's been a couple buys as well. So, I don't know how much there is really of note there.

Anything else interesting here? I think there's one more maybe that we want to take a look at. Here's another AGX sale actually, which you know, now you've got a couple people selling the stock, which does make it interesting, but even even still that there's just a story. I just don't quite know what that story might be, but that would be what you want to find out here.

Then we have the CEO, I think, at Credit Acceptance Corp. This one is kind of interesting just looking at this guy's previous sales. You know, nailed the top on a couple of these. Not very good. Good. Not very good. So, he's kind of 50/50 in terms of of timing the sales well or not. We can go look into here. So, it looks like now the employee stock options he is selling date exercisable. So, look, I mean, he's still he's right in the middle of these. They they became Exercise at the beginning of the year. They don't expire till the end of next year, but he decided to convert them and sell them. So again, you know, why is he deciding to do that now is an interesting question that you'd have to go answer. Let's go. We can see if we can find anything here. They extend a warehouse facility. Insider sold some shares. Looks like maybe somebody sold shares a few days ago, too. Let's go see what else what else they are doing here. So, looks like chief sales officer sold a little stock a few days ago or a week ago or so. Chief alignment officer a couple weeks ago. I think just historically looking at the insiders, I mean, this stock has been pretty certainly not not a stock that off the bat would scream something that I'd be interested in buying. I don't know though if it's really if there's enough here. The entire timing and their sales seems to kind of be all over the place. I don't know if there's a very strong story. Earnings is down a little bit, which could be kind of interesting. Earnings estimates, but I mean, they kind of all follow along. The stock, the stock's been very up and down, not very interesting. The earnings estimates been up and down, not very interesting. So, unless you could maybe try to dig through the filings or something and see some reason why the stock might be falling in the near future, maybe it'd be interesting. But just based on what we're seeing, I I don't think it's super interesting.

There was one more. All right, PX, we'll end with here. P10 Inc., a company that we've highlighted before because they are just all this selling as it starts to roll over. It's had an okay year, but if we look back at kind of insider group selling, you'll notice bunch of selling here at the end of 2024 and the stock went way down there. Over the next six months, the stock went from $14 to $8 to $9 or something. So, a massive decline there. You also see a tiny bit of group selling here right before the tariff fall off. You see some group selling here right before another, you know, 12 to $9 fall off. See a bunch of selling here before it went down. A bunch of selling here before it went down. So, they've done a really good job timing their sales before. And you can see this is a a I mean Q4 was a massive massive amount of selling. But Q2 they sold which would have been some of this selling here and now they sold $4.5 million. It's been four different insiders, eight different trades, including this executive here who we click into and who has also timed his sales fairly well who's sold four times here. But, you know, as with the other people, sold at the end of 2024, sold here in February. Pretty decent timing. Sold back here. Pretty good timing. So, we have good timing. We have a bunch of executives selling the stock. All of that I think is in a good history overall from these insiders. And then we can go look here. What else do we have? P10 Inc. overview. We can see we've got earnings down down down while the stock has been flat to to slightly up. I think there's a little bit of a dislocation there. Just, you know, you'd have to go try to figure out why that dislocation might be. But, you know, these don't really follow along with each other. It looks like the price is just flirting around the 200 day. If we zoom in a little more here. So if especially if this thing starts to creep under here, you've got a pretty good floor at least for you know momentum and technical people that that you know they'd be using this 200 day to kind of see which direction the momentum is holding. And then we can go look to to see see any news comes out dual listing back in August. They rise after Q2B. They do announce a share buyback. So that would be obviously that's kind of a a slightly can be a slightly bullish signal. You know not all companies are very good at it but that's not a bearish signal I guess that for for sure. So that might go against the bearish narrative we're trying to put together here. That that'd be a point in the other direction. Let's see what they filed this 8K for. And they're just just some financing stuff. Not not very interesting. If we look at transcripts here, it looks like they just gave a talk at the Barkley summary, which I'm not really going to go over, but they basically are just laying out their long-term what what they're going for basically, which if if you do read through this, I think, you know, they have a long-term plan that doesn't they don't seem too worried about, which if we go into Q2 earnings calls, they have a long-term plan here. If we look at the again, they they kind of talk about their long-term strategy, which is the same basically between these two, but they did recently make this this Qualitus funds acquisition. I don't remember if any of these fell, but you could look through their metrics real quick to see. Looks like they're nothing super super notable. Their share repurchases, they did step them up a little bit. So, they stepped them down quite a bit, I guess, still since Q4 of last year, but and if you remember, they they did a bunch of selling in Q4. The insider sold a bunch. So, while the company was buying a ton of shares, insiders were selling a ton of shares and the stock went way down. So, you know, maybe they they're not the best with their share repurchase timing. But if we look down here, we can kind of find what the story might be in the question and answers. It's not going to give us the question and answer. Oh, wait. Question answer expense outlook. Can you clarify the expected step up in expenses in the back half of 2025, especially compensation and benefits? And basically that that acquisition that they had they say if you ignore the acquisition they expect the expenses are expected to be consistent. However that acquisition has has increased their expenses quite a bit which I if we remember one of these they would have told us I guess they're not telling us here. Get rid of the how do I get rid of the summary here. They do say somewhere else in here basically they have some like due to interest rates they have some expenses and then also because of that acquisition they have to pay they have expenses just related to paying out the the employees at that company. So they mentioned over the back half of the year that they're going to have some some more expenses. So to me, this would the story here if you buy it is basically long-term doesn't really seem to be to be an issue, but there could be some expected, you know, they are expected, but there could be some higher expenses on the back half of this year. So maybe over the next quarter or two, the stock could could struggle a little bit, which would line up with kind of this this declining EPS consensus. And obviously, you know, if the stock is starting to roll over, if it kind of gets below the momentum line, then you'd have some negative momentum, you have some negative EPS momentum, and you have some increasing cost concerns that for the next quarter or two could could make this stock struggle a little bit. So, I think that's probably the story that you would construct here of why this might why these insires might be selling and why in the near term this stock could perform poorly.

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