Transcription
And obviously the stock market. Um, I think today though, like let's start out with the macro and we'll move to individual assets. Um, we still have the Strait of Hormuz that is closed. Um, apparently no investors care because the markets are within 1% of all-time highs. Um, yet oil remains, in fact, today I think it spiked up as high as uh, $96 or $97 per barrel. So I'd like to throw it out. Ben, maybe you could start and just like, you know, is this, why do investors not care? I mean, do you, what are your thoughts on that? Like, why do investors just say, "Hey, I'll buy the market anyways. I, who cares about oil being at $90?"
>> I mean, well, I think there's, there's, there's hope, right? There's always hope. And it's called climbing the wall of worry for for a reason. Um, I guess you could argue that once the markets start to durably go down, it's where there's no more sort of silver lining uh, in a sense. And there, there's actually a really interesting chart that I've, I, I don't know if I've shared it with you before. Um, I don't really talk about it a whole lot, but maybe, maybe I can um.
>> Yeah, share it.
>> Share it. It, it's basically a map of the United States. So this is a map of the United States where the unemployment rate. So this is, so if the, if the state is colored in orange, it means the unemployment rate is higher today than it was six months ago, right? So right now, like there's still pockets of optimism where like the unemployment rate isn't going up everywhere. And if you actually take this back to prior recessions, uh, like think about like 2008, it was the whole country had an unemployment rate going up. So once there's no reason to be optimistic, that's when the markets start to to really um, sort of price in that recession. You can also look back to 2001, uh, where there's just no denying it anymore. But before that, right before those recessions occurred, you'll see that there's pockets of weakness, but that because it wasn't the whole country, the, the, the markets just ignored it for as long as possible until they could basically ignore it no longer. So, it's kind of like tariffs, right? I mean, like tariffs were still a thing. I mean, I guess now that some of them are being refunded, but tariffs were still a thing. The market cared initially, but because it didn't have an immediate effect on the global economy um, that was sort of durable and noticeable, the markets basically rallied to all-time highs. The same thing now is happening with oil. I do think uh, that eventually we will get to the point where all this will culminate and and the business cycle will end in a recession, just like all business cycles of the past have ended. It just, it's a journey to get there.
>> Yeah. And I think what you're saying is very interesting too, is like you have this scenario where um, the markets like we're focusing in on the economy and the economy is still kind of hanging in there. Earning season is underway and and I don't know if you guys have been paying attention, but generally they're good earnings. I mean um, AI is still the spending and AI is still robust. Um, so it seems like it's like, okay, well, even if oil's at $120, as long as the US economy is hanging in there, which is kind of what you were showing with the unemployment rate being okay in some states still, people are like, alright, I'll buy. And Scott, one other thought I had was, do you think it's like a matter of people also saying like, well, inflation's soaring with oil, so where else can I put my money where I'm not going to lose essentially, and that's the stock market. And then it's a self-fulfilling prophecy, at least in the near term.
>> Yeah. I mean, I think that that's clearly the reason that everything continues to go up. Besides the fact that we're just used to every dip getting bought, so everybody just assumes every dip will get bought and therefore we have the self-fulfilling prophecy of every dip getting bought. But if you have money right now, you're probably rather be in that than sitting in dollars, right? So, I think people are pretty fully deployed. I doubt there's much dry powder. I actually was reading this tweet here from uh, the Kobe letter. I don't know if you can see it, but it's pretty interesting and kind of speaks in that direction. The gap between older and younger equity holders has never been wider. So now Americans aged 70 and plus hold 17% of all US equities and people under 40 own just 3%.
>> Wow.
>> So like you're really only all the stocks is owned by people who already have a life or a career who are 40 to you know, and above and even 40 to 70. So if you're under 40, you're not participating in any of this at all. Right. So, it just shows you how much of a gap there is in age and wealth. It's just really crazy.
>> Mike, talk to me about when this all ends. I mean, we, we know your outlook and I actually agree with it. The question is, is it starting right now? Is this the beginning stages? And and I guess big question for us as investors, right? Is like, you know, is it going to happen like this or is this something that's going to play out over, let's say, five years?
>> I think it's going to play out this year. I like to show screen um, share screen. Why? And I show the first chart is my key basis for this remains. This is stock market volatility. It shows it on S&P 500 just potentially bottoming from about a 10-year low, but it's blasting off in crude oil.
>> What we lost you there, Mike, for a second. Were.
>> Yeah.
>> All right. Well.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. So, we never.
>> We got you back now. We lost you for a second. Can you just tell us about the chart again here?
>> Yeah. So, stock market volatility has never stayed this low with blasting off surging volatility in gold and um, crude oil. And I fully expect that to happen. So, what, you know, 12.9% on 180-day volatility in the stock market should prop up to near 25 or 30% this year. It hasn't happened yet, but we've seen signals. Last year's gold rally was a warning. This year when cryptos peaked, it was a warning. And this is my macro big picture chart. Still, I think we're going to point out is this is something, this is just a stock market cap to GDP on a quarterly basis, the highest since '29 and '36. And um, the lowest treasury market prices versus gold since 1982. And just one key indicator I think is going to lead the way. Bitcoin led the way up, going to lead the way down. But I want to tilt over a little bit to crude oil and then our pause because this is the thing. A theme time have this year is not only should stock market volatility go up, but it's a bull market in elasticity in um, what usually happens in commodities. And I think people in cryptos are learning that they go down because they went up and they went up too much. This is a chart of the Bloomberg Energy Spot Index. It's the same price now as 2009. This blip we've had to this year, this is just spot prices of all energies, mostly goes from crude oil, Brent down to gas oil and heating oil and gasoline. Something hasn't even reached near those old highs. So, it's just bounced. But the key theme I want to point out is what's happened this year is the pump and dump. And the number one measure of heat, electricity, and fertilizer in this country is natural gas. That's a good indication of what happened in 2022. It's the same price now. I go back to 1999 on this. It's the same price now. Natural gas is then. That's a front natural gas future. But one thing to remember, all investors have to remember is you never want to invest in an underlying commodity. Unless it's maybe gold. You want to invest in those companies that create more with less every day. This is the chart of the State Street Select Spider Index. The XLE, everybody knows it's up 740% over the same time that natural gas is unchanged and crude oil is barely unchanged. That's the key thing we need to remember in commodities is they don't stay up. Very rarely. And when they go up, particularly crude oil, it breaks things. I want to just show you again what's, why I don't think crude oil is going to stay up that much. And if it does, the higher it goes, it means it's harder it's going to fall. This is just a chart of WTI crude oil. Go back to 2004. And the main reason it should not go up too much is the excess, the surplus supply versus demand versus that we mentioned this before. US and Canada's protein 10 million barrels a day. There's only one theme that's really stopped that trend in the past, and that's when crude oil goes down. But it went up and it spiked this year. And then again, I, the key theme I have is stock market cap to GDP that at some point is going to revert. So I'll mend a little more crude oil and then I'll then I'll leave it off to you. Is this is the crude oil futures as we pointed out. I, I got to focus on that contract, the December contract, going to be front month when front month when Trump um, right before the midterms at $77, almost $78 a barrel. I think it's going to be closer to $50. And I'll just end with two key charts. This is the spike in gasoline prices. Now I overlay it with futures just to kind of give you an indication where it's going. We're at $4. This spike from roughly $2.50 to $4 has been the sharpest rally in our 20-year history. And then I'll end with this one. Diesel. If you want to break the economy, the grease of the economy, you make diesel spike like this. This is so far, the stock market doesn't care. But when it starts caring and starts falling, cryptos, which I expect, then that trade's going to over end. I think it's going to end like it did on October 10th. Takes one day sometimes to flip the narrative.
>> So, speaking of crypto, we've seen Bitcoin kiss $80,000 up from $60. I mean, percentage-wise, that's a great move, but it's still way off the all-time highs. Ben, you know, I know you talk about crypto and Bitcoin and you have your views and people think you're crazy, whatever, you know, like.
>> Careful, Ben. Careful, Ben.
>> But I, I guess walk me through like, should we see near-term more upside? What's the outlook mid to longer term? And when I say mid to longer term, I'm talking like six months to a year out. Um, I'd love to see charts if you have some charts to show us on on this as well.
>> Sure. Let me uh, share my screen again. Um.
>> Yeah. And I know a lot of this, you have a big the thesis is it's a midterm year, right? And there's some things that happen often during that period.
>> Yeah. Uh, basically like if you look here, this is the year-to-date returns of Bitcoin. Um, so the orange line is sort of the current year and then the, the white shaded region is the average. The middle line is the average and then the sort of these extremes are one standard deviation off of that average from the, what we saw Bitcoin do in 2014, 2018, and 2022. So, like right now, we're, we're kind of at the higher end of what Bitcoin is normally doing at this point in midterm years. Um, again, it's not like you can't have counter-trend rallies. Like all bear markets are characterized by counter-trend rallies. And and you know, if you look previously at how Bitcoin behaves in midterm years, what you normally see happen is you get a low in February, right? You can see February of 2018, February of 2022. You also have um, February of 2014. So February tends to be a time where Bitcoin finds a low. The next time is often April. So April 2014, April of 2018. Um, you also had one here kind of going into late April, early May of 2022. This one was a higher low in April, kind of like 2018, right? So like 2018, the low in February, higher low in April, and then we essentially rally all the way up to sort of near that 200-day moving average um, by like late April, early May. So to me, like I, I, I, I think the most likely outcome, and I, I'll, I'll get a lot of hate, right? But uh, that's never made me shy away before, I guess, in talking about my views. Um, my guess is that the, the next window of weakness will likely occur kind of going into the summer months because oftentimes a lot of interest in crypto dries up, especially in the summer and especially in in midterm years. Um, and so one of the next major areas of weakness is kind of like that June, July time frame. So that's what I think is is how this is going to play out. And one more chart just really quickly uh, which is where some of my conviction comes from is if you look at the ROI of Bitcoin as measured from the low, it, it basically topped exactly when the other two cycles topped to within one week. And if we extend this out to the next low, then it would essentially put it sometime out, you know, in October plus or minus a few weeks, kind of like later on in the year. And remember, like prior major lows for Bitcoin tend to occur near the end of the midterm year. And every single midterm year, we had rallies off the February low. We had rallies off the April low, but it did not stop the market from eventually going lower. And I couldn't tell you what the narrative is going to be exactly. Maybe it's maybe maybe oil prices don't go back up to highs anytime soon, but maybe they just stay structurally higher for, you know, for a few months and that that starts to eat away at the consumer's ability to go buy risk assets in general. I don't know what the narrative will be, but I, I do think a narrative will be blamed and and and then hopefully, you know, further out this year, we can, we can see Bitcoin find a more durable bottom that it can that it can build off of. I just, I don't, I don't think that that $60 is going to provide a durable bottom. And if $60 is a durable bottom, then I think we'll retest it again later this year.
>> Yeah. And and I'll just jump in here on on a chart here. And this kind of goes along and I, I'm not looking at midterm years or anything, but I love how chart analysis can be synergistic, right? And so, you know, you had this and basically what we're doing, at least in the near-term, is is repeating this down move, right? Down move. There's your bare flag. Down move. And then really what we've been stuck in is this bearish parallel channel. And you can see we're right at the upper end, which is kind of what you were showing with the midterm year at the higher end. And the idea is that this is a pattern that midterm the next few months into summer likely plays out to the downside and takes us even lower. I, I'm looking at the $50k level as my next big level. But I, the one last question before I want to go back to Scott and get his views. Ben, when we go over midterm years, do you after the summer swoon, do you get like a pre-election surge or what's the usual scenario there?
>> Usually you get a pre-election drop. So, usually after, usually after the summer, Bitcoin then drops. So, if you think back to how Bitcoin ended 2022, right, there was the big drop uh, you know, in November. You also had in 2018 um, I guess you had the drop right after the midterms or right around the midterms. It started in November. Um, and then in 2014, you had a drop that sort of culminated in a low in October and then it went slightly lower in January. But the reality is, I mean, I, I, I mean, I'm not, this is not a political statement. I just want to be clear. But markets actually do the best when one, like, when one party doesn't control everything, right? And the reason for that, the reason for that is because you have, you have less uncertainty, right? There's, there's sort of a check and balance to what that party is able to do. So I, I, I could see the people that are kind of hating on the bare case now thinking that like if the market does go lower later in the year and the Republicans don't control everything, they might view that as a bearish thing. But that actually might be a bullish thing if you think about the fact that it might actually provide the markets with a little bit uh, less uncertainty. So that, that might be the narrative that we could see happen later this year and it actually would line up with a low in October before before the midterms and then you know, you buy before the midterms and once the midterms are here, then the market's already been pricing that less uncertainty in.
>> Scott, are you kind of in alignment with that? You think again, it could be a tricky road in the mid near term and then maybe later this year. I mean, you're seeing, I remember last week we talked about you were mentioning that there are wallets, whale wallets that are accumulating. Is that still going on?
>> It is. So I mean, there's was massive whale wallet accumulation, historical lows, historic lows on supply on exchanges uh, which are pretty compelling metrics. And I haven't checked today, but as of yesterday, what I found astounding was that this is effectively the most hated rally we've ever seen in Bitcoin on the perpetual swap side. The funding is still somehow negative even as it's pushed up this high. Usually you get negative funding on pers for very brief periods. You see a, you know, one kind of pop up and they go positive again because people are almost always optimistic obviously about future prices. More people want to be long than short and funding rates just don't stay negative. And as of yesterday, I haven't looked today, but they were still negative, which means that people aren't really buying it yet. So I could definitely even just technically see this popping up into, you know, the low 80s. Maybe it hits that 200 MA looming there on the daily, you know, 83, 84 and then we see, you know, but I, I think there's more still to squeeze from this move. And I'm not really trying to think very far down the road from there because I don't know what Donald Trump is going to tweet tomorrow. So, what's the point of even thinking beyond a day? Like, you know, long-term planning. How do we do that? Do you guys, and this is kind of off topic here, and Mike, I'd love to hear your point on this, too, is like it seems to me that you have, and this is this is from a a strategic analysis of the political environment, is that time is ticking towards those midterms. We know this war is not popular with the base of the Republicans. Um, Trump is kind of boxed in, right? He's not, he's not willing to bomb Iran again, but at the same time, he's keeping the blockade up and Iran's doing it. Like, does, I mean, how does this all play out? I mean, if you could look three months in the future, I mean, do we, I mean, does it, does it just kind of we walk away? I mean, how, it doesn't that doesn't make sense either. How do you even get out of this?
>> That's the quagmire now. He cannot just walk away because he will be judged accordingly. Right now, his bravado is working very much against because your average um consumer in this country says, yeah, I'm paying 50% more so for gas than I did before you started this war. I don't care about nuclear so much. You promised me lower prices, they're higher. His, it's showing up in his polls. They're the lowest as Nixon's were right before um, his um impeachment. And this is going to show up in the Republican and obviously in people voting against Trump. And it's going to show up in um, Trump lame duck. I mean, anybody on his team is going to be senator, a Trump sock puppet um, in the future. And they're going to start distancing themselves. We saw that with some pre-court Supreme Court justices recently. We're going to see that with wars. His term is going to go past Trump and anybody associated with this administration might be look bad as similar to Herbert Hoover's administration in 2028. I showed that earlier. It's just how expensive we are on how important the stock market is that it has to go up. Now, how this is going to be solved, I don't know. I think it, it is though. I think the market's looking at as a bit of a battle to bulge. We'll figure it out. But just to say they don't have a navy, but they still Iranians still have ability to close the the strait and keep gas prices high. Most Americans are going to say, "Sorry, Trump. We're done with you and your bado." Those of us who lived in New York the last three decades were kind of sick of it. But I want to tilt over to that and show you a just a key, a few, a few charts and then we'll tilt back a little bit. And that's one thing is this is a chart of the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index. Just the overall index. It's unchanged for five years. It's a random walk. It goes up. I want to point out it made a new high right on October like sixth. Remember that when we talked about everything going down, it's only it's dropped 50%. It's a random walk market for five years. I don't see why it shouldn't go back and drop another 50%. Just get the lower end of the range. This is a normal bell curve of trading. But it's show you how poorly of a performing asset class this is. And before it only mattered about Bitcoin. But once Trump was elected, it's the whole thing. Is I overlay this with the S&P 500 divided by it 200-day moving average. It's the same chart as an index that doesn't go up and has four times the volatility. This is a horrible place to invest in. I'm just pointing that out. And when it gets to the bottom, then I would consider say, yeah, maybe it's the bottom in the range, you look to buy value. But I want to point out I'm not indiscriminate with just Bitcoin. I want to point out the difference with Bitcoin is it's a bare market. It's bouncing. The difference with copper. I put them in the same basis. If you put copper, the S&P 500 and bond yields in China on the same scale. Just take the S&P 500 divide by a thousand. I've been watching this chart for decades. What's happening is copper is starting to lag. It's not going up. But copper is the number one measure of, you know, doctor copper, global economic activity for a reason. It's lagging significantly. My point is the only thing that's holding it up is the stock market going up like Bitcoin. That's the problem. And I'll end with one key chart. Is if you take that same chart of copper, I show it here, divide by the S&P 500, you know, just 100 S&P 500, take off couple zeros. It's basically hovered at one for 10 years and then it broke down in 2023. But see, look at this chart. When people say they're bullish compared, it's its performance completely sucks versus the S&P 500. It's going down versus a beta. And bond yields in China are declining, which is a sign of deflation. The world's largest demand pull source and a exporter of deflation. And I look at this. Is this to me, a bull market peaking? That's why I say, you know, she'll also be selling copper around six initially. Why I said sell Bitcoin at higher prices and still near here. This is just the pattern recognition analysis. When markets that typically lead beta lag for extended period, you look to sell them on rallies. And that's why I stick with in cryptos and in copper. It just proved me wrong. And that's why I like to say, just look at this chart. It's just a poor performing asset and is supposed to be outperforming. It's just point pointing out how expensive and how dependent everything is now on the US stock market going up, which is why to my base case here this year, it's just get out, stay out, everything and look for spots to sell or buy. I haven't think anything to buy yet other than treasuries. And if we can get that bond there 5%, be great to get that. You get a 5% percent percent coupon on that long bond.
>> Yeah, this just the young younger generations, man, 5% like what the hell is that? You know?
>> Exactly. Used to do coins, 2,000, 10,000% man. It's.
>> But that's a actually, you know, that's like a really good point, especially when you overlay it with what I mentioned about who owns equities and who's participating in this market.
>> Mike, you got to think that it's a diminishing capital pool for interest in bonds with time.
>> Even if it performs well, you got to imagine there's just, there's never going to be more buyers. There might be more volume, but there's never going to be more buyers. Actually, if working at demographics, it's the opposite. Except for people who don't understand capital budgeting and and investing in proper diversification. I see it in Florida here all the time. There's so many people so overweight equities in their 70s. You're supposed to be underweight equities in your 70s, but Mark made them overweight. But massive potentially aging of populations mean you stick in fixed income. And that's why I look at that US long bond at 5% versus three handles in Europe is a gift for now. And there's one key thing holding it up. I keep pointing out the stock market going up. But it's also, I love it. It's the young people call me Mick. That I say, those are the ones who have to worry because they have not seen a world of reversion. And we always get them. We got them in, you know, after 9/11 that we said was part of reversion. And certainly got it after 2007. Those are two 50% drawdowns S&P 500. We're overdue for that. And wonderful, we haven't had it, but all the signals are there. Is supposed to just get out and wait. And when, when, if you're the one not losing money and everybody else is going through that typical recession that Ben mentioned, there's only one key thing that's going to drive that now. It's the stock market. You can scoop up assets. I mean, that was fun picking up picking up assets after the, you know, after the um 2008 and 2009 and 2003. And well, you know, we'll see.
>> Hey, Gareth, I have, I have an important question for you. Have you been called a this week or is it just the three of us? I've been called a this week. I know Ben, I know. I'm sure I have.
>> Just making sure.
>> I mean.
>> I want the day if I'm not. So, I mean.
>> Four retards.
>> We got to embrace it.
>> Three amigos.
>> And we thank everyone for watching us. Thank you guys for watching us.
>> Sorry. Um, so going back to that and I do, I do think and this and I'd like to hear Ben's view on this because he looks at a lot of technical data as well, but like you have this generation that came in with COVID, right? Everyone was home and and and we got checks in the mail. People were like opening their Robin Hood accounts, right? I mean, really before 2020 was Robin Hood even really a thing? Not really, right? And so you have these investors where we see these V bottoms. And what I think is fascinating is that the V bottoms have become more aggressive and powerful every single time because I think you have this mentality, this psychology of the investor that's like, "Alright, it's going to happen, so let's front run it even faster and just pile in even harder versus in the past it was like, h let's dip our toe in the water and then, oh, it's up 20%. Well, I missed the run." And I agree with you, index funds, I mean, look at how many people are just like, you know, you don't even have to like worry. You'll be a millionaire. Just put your money in the VO, the VU, and like just sit back. And and to me, I'm like, dude, I went through, I still remember retirees, and Mike, you mentioned this, is that in '09, there were people that I knew that were overexposed to stocks and were like on the verge of retirement and they had to work like an extra five plus years because they lost so much. And and it does make me wonder and Ben, I'll direct this to you, is like, are you thinking that do we have a reckoning day in the next five years? Right? Not, not, I'm not just talking like, oh, we'll have a recession, right? I mean, I think we all would agree there'll be a recession in the next five years, but like something that's rivals the financial crisis?
>> Maybe, I don't, I don't know if it's going to be quite that bad. I mean, it could be. Um, I will say that I, I think this is truly the first full business cycle that millennials are going to experience because, you know, if you look at um, maybe I can share my screen one last time. Uh, there's, there's a chart that I have that I, I think is kind of helpful in in terms of like understanding the business cycle. So this, this is the S&P loads. This is the S&P 500 um, divided by the unemployment rate squared multiplied by US inflation rate multiplied by US interest rates and then normalized by the money supply. Like you can see that, I mean, if you exclude the pandemic, basically the last time we had one of these like business cycles was back in, you know, the, the late 2000s when we had the financial crisis. So, I think one of the reasons why a lot of people my age and a lot of people in crypto think that things will never change and we'll always have this sort of repeatable behavior is because they've never actually been exposed to anything different. And a lot of times we are, we're a product of our experiences. Um, if you think back, we actually got a glimpse this past cycle as to how things are changing in the fact that this last cycle, there was never really a durable rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins, which is also what happened in 2019 in that sort of that late business cycle environment. So, the evidence is already there that it is a late business cycle environment. I'm not yet convinced that the business cycle has to end this year. It could, but I also could see it um, I, I could see geopolitical uncertainty continuing to increase over the next several years. I think I actually think gold's going to go higher um, as we get sort of further into the decade. I think geopolitical conflicts are going to go up um, and I think that you will have a recession. You will have sort of a major unwind, but I don't know yet if it's going to happen this year. I could see it happening as late as 2028 and it's still um, ultimately coming, coming to an end. Those are my thoughts. Um, the business cycle takes a really long time to play out. And also, initial claims, they haven't really even started climbing yet, you know, and and it's a long and I, I don't really think you're in recession territory until they hit 300K. And we're, we're, we're closer to 200K than 300K and we've been that way for years.
>> Yeah. Yeah, you're right about that. And and I would agree with you, like I don't see, and I know Mike thinks we're starting. And I do think like the breadcrumbs of it are already starting, right? I mean, the, the debt being over $39 trillion and going up a trillion dollars every three to four months or whatever. I mean, these are things that are unsustainable in the longer term, and eventually you got to pay the piper. But, but the question is, you know, again, we're coming up on that 100-year cycle of the Great Depression, and you have to wonder if if there's something bigger that's going to unravel all of what Mike is saying. But Scott, I mean, you know, I guess the question, too, is is that the coming out party for the next bull market of Bitcoin, right? I mean, um, I don't know. It's, it would be an interesting thing because it kind of would match up with the four-year cycle. Maybe again, maybe you could speak.
>> I would like to believe that we've just started the coming out party for the next Bitcoin bull market.
>> But we broke above $74,000 over 30% off the lows, right?
>> It, you know, it's probably one of the most hated 30% rallies in Bitcoin in history. Man, everything everyone is, I mean, I, I'm never a bull on Bitcoin and I've been a bull since 60 saying it would go back to 80. And man, the, the flack I took. I mean, talk about.
>> What's hilarious is there was some viral tweet that went around and the media started picking it up as usual, all the crypto media that Bitcoin had never bounced 30% off the bottom and then made a new low.
>> It was and I literally responded to the tweet that went viral and said, you know, 2022, we bounced from 17 to 25, 42% and went back down to 15. What are you talking about? But it became like a viral story that six out of six times and it's never bounced 30% and gone back down, which I, I bet there were more times in 2022, by the way, 40% bounce. I just remembered that one.
>> It's, it's how it did it too. The we have a stock market that's setting records every day and Bitcoin's just kind of catching up from good support. It's just a bad sign that just watching the spidey sense as you say of being a professional tape reader. That's just poor performance. I mean, great, thank you. I'm glad you're going up, but, but just have to put into any value at risk model. Stock market going down 10%. What does that do for Bitcoin? Well, no, it drops 20%. Copper drops, everything drops 20 to 30%. If it doesn't, that's the test. But so far, it's still failing the test. It's bouncing from support despite the recording stock market. It's just catching up. Thank you very much. But, you know, I don't see how that's, you know, it's just, it's great, but um, you got to see it go up and a volat, an asset that has two to three times or four times the volatility of a beta that's underperforming and only bounces because beta goes up. It's to me, the glory days are over and it's showing its performance.
>> Yeah. And I would just point out this is these type of rallies that we've seen in the stock market are usually usually occur in bare markets. Now, we made an all-time high. So, you know, you would say it's definitely not a bare market, but it's these type of panic buying frenzies are usually not super healthy for the market. So, just, you know, we'll leave it on that. Um, we've come to the end of the show. I want to thank everyone on this panel. You guys, it's always awesome discussions. I love when Ben, you join us as well. It just is even more interesting. Uh, follow the gentlemen below on their ex handles. And Ben, what's yours?
>> I actually just changed it. It's Benjamin Cowan now.
>> What weren't you into the cryptoverse for all these years or something? Or.
>> No, I was, I was into, I was into cryptoverse because into the the cryptoverse was too long, apparently.
>> Into cryptoverse.
>> But now it's just Benjamin Ken.
>> Awesome. All right, everyone. Thank you guys. Thank you guys for watching us. We appreciate it. We'll be back next Thursday with another episode. We'll talk to you then. Take care, guys. Cheers.