Transcription
Baga sir, good morning. Continuous attacks are ongoing and have become more intense. Now, both countries have once again started threatening each other. Are the tensions likely to increase further? Yes, the prospects seem unfavorable. The US has significantly increased its forces, and there might be a major attack on Pickaxe Mountain over the weekend. Yesterday, Marco Rubio clarified that Iran is not at all ready for peace. Therefore, talking about peace with Iran is bound to fail. Trump threatened that if Iran attacks a tanker in the Gulf, they will destroy a bridge or a power plant. So, Iran responded by saying, "You do it, and then we will set the entire Gulf on fire." Such rhetoric is ongoing, which is not good.
Another development yesterday was that under the maritime blockade imposed by Saudi Arabia, two Saudi tankers were attacked. Now, movement in the Red Sea is also being halted, impacting oil supply by approximately 4 million barrels per day. Because of this, Brent is now at 96. On the other hand, American earnings have been very strong. European markets also closed higher. American markets saw a slight dip. But overall, if you look at the results from America, they are good. Alphabet's cloud services increased by 82% year-on-year, so overall Google's results were very good. Tesla's results were good in terms of revenue, but profits were slightly lower. IBM's results were slightly below expectations, but the stock rose because last week they had already given the news that there wasn't much growth in software. So, the AI trade is boosting Asia today. The Korean market was up 3% in early trading, and Japan is also up today. So, the momentum in chips and AI is continuing, but due to oil, the Indian market appears to be negatively impacted.
Absolutely, sir. A small question: are oil prices likely to go above $100 again, given the current situation? This is because there are disruptions from three places: the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Caspian Sea, where Ukraine attacked two tankers at Kazakhstan's terminal the day before yesterday. So, the supply from Kazakhstan, which handles 1.6 million barrels per day, from its Caspian port has stopped. Therefore, that supply is also currently halted. So, overall, Swati ji, there has been a reduction of approximately 15 million barrels in supply. That impact is now visible. I think it will reach $100 quickly, perhaps early next week, as it went from 90 to 96 rapidly. So, it might reach $100 today or in the Sunday night trading.
On the other hand, if the peace talks that are ongoing, the back-channel talks, and if they impose a 10-day pause, that could help. Yes, thank you very much, Ajay sir, once again for your analysis, and we will continue to talk with you throughout the day.