Transcription
The indices are falling again due to the end of the shutdown, and the government does not wish to communicate the latest economic data. Therefore, the market anticipates that they are probably bad, and this is what reduces the probabilities of lowering interest rates. We will talk about this today, and we will take stock of the dollar and gold. Just before we begin, I remind you that our support and training service is still available and it is totally free. You will have access to reviews of our trades and answers to your questions. You will also have access to complete mentorship from A to Z. To get all of this, it's the first link in the pinned comment. It will take you to this page, and you just have to click right here on "Join my free Forex index trading support." Scroll down, and register on Primex BT via our partner link. You just have to make a deposit of 200 dollars on the platform in crypto or by bank card. It's your money. You can withdraw your funds whenever you wish. Fill in your email, your Premixbt ID, which is located at the top right of the platform, there is a small profile logo, hover your mouse over it. Copy your ID, paste it into the form, fill in your Discord username. If you don't have a Discord account, you can create one by clicking on "Join," fill in your username, check "I have made a deposit, get my access," and within 24 hours, you will receive access to the mentorship and also the VIP in dis forc on your Discord account.
Now, regarding the Nasdaq, personally, I had more of a continuation bias within this fair value gap to play the bearish fair value gap. And so the events are such that, well, I don't know if it's the events or if it was the price direction. Personally, I still think that at a minimum, we would have come to deliver this FBG zone. So I think this bearish acceleration is happening precisely following these events, and so I still think the market will come back to visit these price zones, to be honest. We are really in a fear that is quite extreme. We have returned to extreme fear in the indices market. We are almost at the ATH. So that says that the market flips quickly and a lot. But for now, the market would probably be interested in coming to hunt last week's low. And again, this will be a POI to observe. Will it react this time or not? Again, if that's not the case, the next target would simply be the low of October.
And what is important, and what is currently impacting the market, is that many algorithms are readjusting to this. For example, a month ago, we had a 95% probability of lowering interest rates in December. The market has dropped to 52%. Why? Because Jerome Powell is someone who looks at data a lot, and we are not going to communicate anything to him. Well, they have internal and private data, but they rely heavily on public data, and so they have nothing to justify a potential rate cut or anything else. In short, it's like, "Yes, well, if we cut rates, trust us, the data is good," even though they can't prove it. And that's not Powell's policy at all, to operate like that. So the market is currently pricing all of this in. It remains almost 50-50, and even in favor of a rate cut. But the more the probabilities of cutting rates decrease, the more the market is readjusting, pricing in. From my technical point of view, there is, well, there is the only bearish signal I see on a weekly basis, which is the break of the last bullish candle in the immediate. It's slight to talk about a definitive top. Now, yes, there are lower targets like last week's low, or even the previous month's low, but for me, it's a market, I think, in which these zones are interesting zones to attempt swing entries, to play a delivery of this FBG, of this ATH. Now, what is factual is that the movement here is bearish, and on an hourly chart, we see that we have worked the last FVG zone almost. Well, there's still one left, but we are currently rebalancing this entire impulse, this displacement, but it's highly likely that the market is interested in going to retrieve the stops on last week's low.
And so here, well, I will observe the price. If we do the same thing as last Friday, that is to say, we come to retrieve the low and we react, well, that could simply be a good thing to completely go against the grain and finally go and get all these buy stop zones because we have confirmed them. So we will very likely come back to that. And also what I am monitoring on a daily basis is this order block because if it becomes a breaker block, then yes, there will be a very high probability of delivering the October low. And if it goes into a major panic or anything else, well, we could even hit other monthly lows, but that would really be on a more bearish move. So for today, what I am observing is last week's low on the Nasdaq. I am also observing the price reaction on an hourly chart, but for now, I don't see anything. I personally see a movement that is still bearish. So I think we will come to deal with last week's low, and then we will see the reaction. If there is a good reaction, it could be the taking of stops before potentially going to deal with all our buy stop zones. But we will have to see how we react here. I don't necessarily have an idea of how we will react for now. I am waiting to see. And if it doesn't react very well, I think the low of October will be the target. Now, I really don't think we are at a definitive top.
Similarly, the SP500, it surprised me a little that we didn't go for the ATH, to be honest, because we stopped a bit in the middle of nowhere. I don't see much here. Well, we can note an IFBG, but it's not generally in these price zones that we stop. We didn't even retrieve last week's high. It's a bit strange. I find it a bit strange. After that, the price broke the last bullish candle. So that validates the reversal and allows us to come back and work this wick. And on the SP500, it's a bit similar, except that it still has a little room. See here, it's working this last impulse in the same way. Either we make a higher low and we go against the trend. But again, I think there's a way to get back to last week's low. And then again, I think these will be the zones to observe. We also have the previous month's low, which is much lower on the SP500, at 6540 points. But these are the levels I will observe. But when I see how the market stopped here, again, I have no certainty, but I have a very strong conviction that we will come to work this zone.
And what is interesting, what is funny, and what shows that there is, I wouldn't say a panic flow, but a small flow, a bit, how should I say, emotional, is that the indices are falling, but the dollar is also falling, and I think gold is also falling. So all assets are actually going down due to this return of the government which, well, doesn't really want to communicate the figures. So in fact, the market doesn't know, there is uncertainty, and when there is uncertainty, generally, actors de-risk. And so that's exactly what's happening. We also see it on Bitcoin. Well, we've already talked about it a lot on the channel, but we also see it here on BTC. So all asset classes are generally falling. I don't know if the bonds were also falling yesterday. So yes, it's really a generalized global uncertainty. So we could have possibly predicted and doubted that the government would not communicate the figures, but it's still quite crude. And so the market is reacting to all of this.
And so, regarding the dollar index, it's perhaps not the best time, honestly, to engage, except for very large POIs. POIs can be good opportunities. Weekly lows, monthly lows, weekly fair value gaps, monthly fair value gaps, but other than that, I don't know, because I think it's a very nervous market currently, very emotional. On the dollar side, we are re-working our weekly fair value gap zone. Personally, as long as this fair value gap zone does not give way, I still expect the dollar to be able to continue to go higher. I remind you again, this is based on the bias regarding Euro USD, which for me is a bit of trolling us, if I may say so, with this relative equal high rebound. It's clearly a zone that we are confirming and that we will seek later from my point of view. We had noted the immediate monthly balance, for those who don't know what an immediate balance is, it's when the market prevents the formation of a fair value gap. So in fact, we are directly re-working the last previous wick, which is right here, and which we could potentially go and seek now. So, this is the zone I am personally watching, the immediate balance zone, and why not the stops of the last bearish candle. So here, hop, this is the high. So, I will write "previous week's highs," but that's not the case, but because it's the last bearish candle, I'm taking the liberty of doing so, and I think once we have taken the stops here, then, I think Euro USD will go back towards our lows, and that will re-motivate the dollar. We'll see how the indices also react to this. But all the uncertainty around the United States is giving a little boost to Europe.
And to finish with gold, well, it came to seek the zone we had identified. Now, can we really witness the end of a rebound here on a daily chart? Clearly not for the moment. What we could expect is the hunt for the low, but I am mainly expecting a re-work of this fair value gap zone here, which covers these two daily lows. So, I think this is a zone we will end up visiting very probably. I will take the liberty of, hop, marking it like this. I will delete this, and we will wait to see which zone will be resolved. On a 12-hour chart for now, we can note a stop hunt, a candle that breaks the last bullish candle, but it's still a bit too early. It's a first sign of rejection. After that, we will look at the hourly chart to see a bit what we had. Can we witness a small beginning of a bearish movement? Well, on an hourly chart, yes, we can witness a small bearish movement since we have here the formation of a first market structure shift, a rebalancing that sends the price lower and forms a breaker block here. So here we have the formation of a breaker block that has been re-worked and that sends the price lower. So this breaker block zone, pardon me, we will observe it, we will see a bit what it will give in the coming days. Will it validate a retracement for gold? In any case, in any case, in any case, we have indeed come to seek the zones we had to seek, and it could be a reversal zone. So I would say again on gold, we are in dangerous zones, the last fair value gap zones, the last order block, I repeat it again, I will say it I think every day because it's super important, I am carefully monitoring these price levels. If gold goes into a breaker, it means that microeconomically, something is wrong because after such a huge rally, we should expect consolidation rather than an immediate rebound. If we go straight towards a breaker and head towards 4005 and beyond, I remind you that 4005 was the target of all the biggest banks, which are not there to make people money. We stopped just before, and we always do that. So if we really go there, it means we can even go higher than that. Perhaps even approach 5000 dollars an ounce. But that's only if there's a breaker. Personally, that's not my bias at all. I really think we will start to consolidate, or even reject in this zone and come back and reprice a bit lower. But we'll see. In any case, there are clearly inversion patterns here that would seem to indicate and potentially mark the end of this movement on gold. To be verified and confirmed in the coming hours and days.
Well, of course, the government shutdown, not publishing figures and all that, creates a lot of uncertainty. It creates a huge mess. But for now, well, we continue to deal with all of this and see a bit how the price will act. I'll stop here. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, don't hesitate to bombard the thumbs up, leave a small comment, and subscribe. Thank you very much. See you very soon.