Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, a market review. There is quite a bit to say. Things have moved a lot in cryptocurrencies, especially last night. Some altcoins have fallen quite a bit. Also, the SP500, the US market, is opening this week with a bearish gap. So, quite a bit of volatility, a dump this Monday at the start of the week, especially last night. So, we will simply see together if there are any setups that are triggering or not. Is it bullish to make this kind of signal, or on the contrary, are we sinking? We will start with Bitcoin and Ether. We will look at some altcoins and the US market.
So, BTC, in the end, its weekly close is not incredible. We still have a wick here that is quite, quite significant, and especially, it's a shame, we don't have a weekly close above this level that would validate this W structure. So, we might have to wait until next week. We'll see, but it's true that it's not the prettiest of weekly closes. Now, when I zoom out here on the daily, we are pulling back, and we are really on the level to defend. In fact, we are at the level of our previous value high at this level. So, we are consolidating on this level. It's a support level. Here, we are in the area of interest. Here, buyers should show themselves. They could have here, but we were quite high. But this is the zone where, for my part, I say, well, we must have buyers defending this zone, showing themselves. Why? Because it's a former resistance level that is supposed to act as support now. So, if we want to have a bullish impulse here and start our bullish momentum, okay, it's in this zone that we must have a buyer awakening. If we start to re-enter, it will be really bad for the future, and it will make me think more and more of what happened in 2022. So, for the moment, in any case, given the day, we still have a small H2 reaction. We see it, we will wait for the daily close, but we have a wick here that is quite significant, okay? Which shows us that we have pushed well and buyers have shown themselves. I like these lower wicks. You see, at this level, lower wick, lower wick. Uh, here we have quite a few lower wicks. Here we have lower wicks. Generally, this indicates that sellers are pushing and buyers are waking up. It's rather a good sign. And conversely, we have upper wicks, upper wicks at this level, you see, hop, these are signals that show us that, well, the opposite, that buyers are pushing but sellers are showing themselves. We will wait for the daily close. If we close like this, it's a good start, knowing that we are on a support level, and we will have to wait for a W structure and regain this level. If we start to go back above this high, it will also be a rather bullish signal.
We have here, well, short-term moving averages pointing downwards, the 158 crossing below the 1h. We have the 4h that acted as support. We came, uh, above it, then we crossed back below the short-term moving averages, so we are in a bit of uncertainty. This is what I've been telling you in recent days. The market, anyway, it's simple, the market has been, globally, since this phase, it's quite complicated, even in the short term. Intraday it's okay, but really in the medium term, it's not easy. That's why I've reduced my exposure. I'm much more wary because we see that we are operating in a market context that is completely different from everything we've known for a good period where we had less downward volatility, less correction, and it was a bit of "to the moon." And now, we are in a situation where I prefer to be cautious. And I told you, what will differentiate someone who succeeds from someone who doesn't is their risk management, their emotional management, and their strategy, quite simply. Do they respect it or not? How is it developed? And is it well thought out, and quite simply, do they have scenarios, hypotheses depending on what the market will do? This is really a question of risk management, of managing the exposure slider, something I talk about quite often, but you take the cash you have on the side, USDT, USDC, DAI as well, it can be euros, dollars that are not invested in cryptocurrencies, and on the other hand, you take your cryptocurrencies, all the cryptocurrencies you own, altcoins, BTC, what's in staking, and so on and so forth. You determine your cash-crypto balance. This will allow you to see if you have a lot of cash or not on the side. Do this exercise so you don't navigate blindly and you know your allocation globally. If you are currently in a situation where you are, I don't know, 100% crypto, 0% cash. Well, that's not the best situation because if the market dumps, you have nothing to buy the dip. If you are in the opposite situation where you are 90% cash, 10% crypto, if it goes up, it's also more complicated. For me, the most interesting balance is to be between 40-60 and 60-40. So, 40-60, 50, etc. I think this is an exposure that seems correct to me given the market situation. We remain exposed, at a minimum, with cash in case it goes lower. After, among these 50%, crypto, is it BTC, Ether, altcoins? That depends on you, on your profile, and each portfolio must be adapted to a profile. This is really important. If you have a portfolio that is not adapted to your profile, well, you will really struggle in the short term, it might go well. In the long term, I guarantee you will not be satisfied. You will have emotional biases that will trigger because you have a portfolio that is not adapted to your profile, and you will not be able to generate regular income in the long term. So, so there you go. In any case, here we are in a zone, we really need to be careful. We are at a decisive level, we have repeated this for a long time. And there, we are approaching the invalidation level. If we start to settle below this level, to go below $90,000, yes, then it will really not be good. So, we are slowly approaching it for buyers to wake up. We are in this imbalance zone. For the moment, we can still make higher lows, but we must maintain this level. If we reach a stage where we no longer make higher lows, it would be rather bearish for the future. So, ideally, in 4h, 1h, we would like to see a reversal structure here, to go back above the, above the moving averages. We also have new pivot points, weekly pivot points, since it's a new week. So, weekly pivot point, hop, we have the main weekly pivot point around $94,000, approximately $93,900. Then we have weekly pivot support 1 at $89,000 and resistance 1 at $97,000. We will always keep these different pivot points in mind in case of retracements. There are always interesting levels to potentially take longs or take profits or take shorts as well if we go back to the extremes. So, so there you go, on this side, we saw it together, the moving averages, we are in a compression phase with a 4h that acts as support and 15 minutes, 1 hour, we are going below for now. So, for me, here, already on intraday, I have no setup triggering. I have already shown you my intraday setups, they will mainly trigger when I have good momentum. After that, I have automatic setups that can trigger. Well, that's not the case today, but for that, I actually just have alerts that trigger. Are my rules respected? If yes, I enter. If not, I don't enter a position. It's a 100% automatic setup that even a 3-year-old could use. And then, I have trend continuation setups here. But for that, you need a good trend. And for the moment, we are in a bit of a confluence, a divergence between all the moving averages. Since we have a 4h that is rather bullish and a 1h that is bearish, I like to have a convergence. As I was able to take trades, it was BTC or Ether, I don't remember. Ether, it was where? Well, it was here. You see, when we are like this in this kind of market condition with a 3-minute above the 15, a 15 above the 1-hour, all moving averages pointing upwards, well, this gives this kind of trade, and currently, I don't have any. So, that's why I prefer, I prefer to wait for my part until we simply have new, interesting market conditions for me to trade this kind of thing. My goal is, if for a month I have a flat market and for a month I take two or three trades, well, I take two or three trades. I don't have a quota, there's no one telling me, "Nico, you have to take 20 trades this month, 30 trades." No, if I take two because the conditions are not triggering, just twice, well, I will only take them twice, quite simply. This is a very important rule, and you shouldn't force certain trades. Currently, I still have two trades in progress, which are not going super well for the moment. I have Optimism at this level, it hasn't triggered for me. Why? Because I still have, I have stop losses on close. Okay. But if we start closing below this impulsive candle, I exit my position. In the end, Optimism didn't take off. Compared to ICP, it took off. We retrace. Same, I have, I have, how to say, I have stop losses on close as well on ICP. I still have these trades in progress. And if I have to take a loss, I have to take a loss. And even if I take a loss on these two, ICP, I can't because I have my stop loss at break-even. That is to say, if we close below this daily candle at this level, I will exit. So, at worst, I take a break-even on ICP. But even if I take a loss on Optimism, well, it's, I lose -1R when I compare it to the trade I took at this level on Ether. The trade I also took on Solana. I don't know if it's on this chart. No, it must be on another chart. Hop! Which was a very good trade here at the break, a trade I took on BTC as well at the beginning of the year. So, in the end, I remain in profit. And what allows this? It's quite simply having good risk management. If when I lose on Optimism, I lose, I don't know, -5%, and when I win, I win +2%. No, that's bad risk management. A good trader is someone who, when they lose, loses -1R, but when they win, they win +2, +3, +4. Okay? Which means that when you take a winning trade and you get +4, it takes four losing trades. Well, after that, there are trading fees, I'm not taking them into account because it depends if you're scalping, long-term, etc., on fee reductions you have, etc., etc. But someone who takes four losing trades, well, they're back to break-even. But you see, between one winning trade and four losing trades. Why? Because when we get a +4, we let the gains run, and when we get a -R, we cut losses quickly. This is something that is very important. And, well, I will probably take a loss on Optimism. Is the question, this is really important what I'm going to tell you, and it's crucial in your trading. I know for someone starting, it might seem counterintuitive, but yet it's really important. The question you must ask yourself is, did you respect your plan? And if you were put back in the same situation with the same market conditions, would you enter again? And me, here, if you put me back on January 14th in the same situation, yes, I would take this trade again. And that's what will make you, what will allow you to say, is this a good trade or not. Many judge the quality of a trade by its result. Ah, winning trades are good trades. Ah, losing trades are bad trades. No, tomorrow, I'll pick someone at random on the street, I'll say, "Do you go long or short?" They say, "I short," and they're right, and they win. Is that a good trader? Is that someone who makes them profitable in the long term? No. And you see this example with an example I love to use. I even made a full video about it. You take two people, person A, person B. Okay? There's a big road, okay? And person A crosses a big road. There are quite a few cars. There's traffic, etc. There are a lot of cars crossing here. Person A crosses, arrives, looks left, looks right. Okay? They do the job, they cross, and they get hit and die on the spot. And then, we have person B here who puts a blindfold on their eyes, crosses without looking, and gets to the other side of the street calmly, and they are alive. Who made the right decision? Person A did. The result, how is it? It's negative. If this person were put back in the same situation, would they do the same thing? Yes, because they did it right. Whereas person B, did they do it wrong? No. Why is this example a bit counterintuitive? Because we take a single sample, we test it once. Now, if there isn't just one person here, but let's say there's a queue, there are 10,000 people, and here there are also 10,000 people. Well, then, because the sample is larger, for sure, there will be more deaths here than here because we can't rely on just one sample. Here, if you understand this, I promise you, your trading will change, your vision of things will change, you will clearly improve. And this is understanding that one trade means nothing, and the result of a trade does not call into question your strategy, your way of trading. It's too insignificant because there's always a part of randomness. However, for sure, if I continue to take trades like this and after 100 trades, I have 90 losing trades, then okay, then we can take a step back and say, "Very well, there's a strategy problem, it's not very good, etc." Then, I agree, but one trade means absolutely nothing. And you see, if I take the example of ICP, the trade I took in November, okay, which is roughly in the same spirit as the trades I took here, you see this trade, the gains it brought me, I can take the two losing trades here, I'm still in profit. As I say, this is a matter of risk management. And that's the important thing, that even in losing trades or trades that don't go well like this, we can learn things and we can understand how the market works, how trading works. Okay? I prefer to show you when things go wrong like this because often people will show when everything goes well, etc. Yes, I do that too. When I have trades at the beginning of the year, I had some good trades in the short term. I showed you, no problem. But when things go wrong, well, you have to show them too, and you have to show and make people understand that it's not because things are going wrong that it's my worst week, that everything has to be rethought, no, that's how it is. Okay, for the moment, these trades are not closed. We'll see what happens. Optimism is going really badly. BTC would need to bottom out and recover, otherwise it will be complicated. ICP, given the volatility, you never know, there can always be surprises. We see that it bounced back very well, and that's the importance also for the medium to long term. When I'm in spot or with very low leverage and I have alerts everywhere, I'm quite active in front of the screens, having closes on, having invalidations, stop losses on close, well, that avoids getting stopped out like that on wicks. Something I don't do intraday because it's tricky, I have leverage, it's, well, it's different. Okay. There you go. In any case, on the trade follow-up.
Now, let's talk about Ether, which is reacting automatically at its upper extremity. We saw that it was more complicated to position ourselves because we were simply on a resistance zone. And when we are like this on a resistance zone, well, we don't look for longs for the simple reason. What does the person who is long here do? They anticipate the breakout of a resistance. That's the worst thing. Okay? You never anticipate. But especially their invalidation is placed lower. Very well. Risk-reward of 2 for 1. That is to say, for this trade to work, it has to break one resistance, two resistances, and almost reach the third. Is this interesting from a probability standpoint? Are the probabilities in the trader's favor here? Not at all. The person places themselves on a support level where we have a buyer reaction with a stop loss all the way down, hop, here risk two points. Is this more realistic? Of course, because there's no resistance to break, there's just a retracement to the next resistance zone. Always reason this way when you want to position yourself: where do you put your stop loss? Where do you put your TP? Because sometimes I have setups that trigger, automatic setups, trend continuation setups, but if the risk-reward isn't interesting, I don't enter a position. Sometimes here I have all my conditions met. I have my extremity taken, I have reached my extremity. I had my buyer reaction, I have the pullback, I have everything I need. I place my entry, my stop loss, I set my TP, I see a risk-reward of 1.5 points. I don't take it because the risk here isn't interesting, and that's also something that should be part of your trading. Are you willing to accept losing so much to gain so little? Well, for me, the answer is very often no. So, this is also something that should be part of your strategy. Uh, Ether, I wanted to look with you, uh, here, moving averages. Well, we are rejected at the daily tunnel level. We cross back below the 15-minute, below the 1-hour. We have the 4h that is below, acting as support. We have new weekly pivot points here as well. Resistance 1 at $3400. Main pivot point at $3250, and support 1 at $3100, which is also in confluence here with the yearly pivot point. So, if we come back to this level, it could be a good zone to look for longs. We would be roughly in confluence with, roughly in the middle of the range here. So, well, on Ether, it could be a good zone. Uh, regarding the US market, well, I have the impression, as I was telling you last week, we had gold making ATHs, we had the SP500 ATH, NASDAQ pushing well, etc. I told you, there's one thing that, for me, seems more realistic. Okay, the risks are decreasing, risk-off assets are performing. In any case, well, we see that gold is performing, bonds are also performing. These are rather reassuring signs in the sense that we don't have a market that is as strange as we've had in recent weeks where everything was going up. And I told you, there's one thing that, for me, there's a higher chance that the bearish market will rise. Why? Because there's the macro context. There's the macro context, there's the weakening of the SP500, there's also my own convictions, my market reading, and a little personal intuition. And intuition is not just chance; intuition is also from spending time in front of the charts, well, you record certain elements, and thus the brain can give us alerts, and what the SP500 is doing here, I would be cautious. First of all, I would not be a buyer at all. Medium to long term, no. Even if we are, even if we are above the moving averages, well, we are already losing the 1h, the 15-minute, we are in the 4h. If we lose the 4h, it's heading for the tunnel. Honestly, I would be wary.
Now, be careful, because there's something that bothers me, and for the moment, they are right. I can't, for the moment, these people are right. But for a long time, it's been since at least 2022, there's been a trend since 2022 that I've seen. It's the famous DCA on the SP500. Because you take an average over, let's say, the last 30-40 years, and you say that the SP500 makes an average of 10% per year, an average, okay? And thus, there are calculations that are, you do a monthly DCA, and with compound interest, after 30-40 years, you reach retirement. You reach retirement if you have a retirement, which is very, very unlikely, but you reach retirement, let's say, and you leave with a million. That's your retirement. That's the theory of many people. For the moment, these people are right, and the market is making ATH after ATH, and all the people who followed this strategy are currently in profit. Very little chance that a person who did DCA on the SP500 is currently negative. The problem is, we are very high. Nothing prevents us from having a range here that lasts 15 years, and we have a market, if the economy in the United States deteriorates. I wouldn't be surprised in the next 10-15 years to have a rotation in terms of, currently, the US market, the most powerful Americans in the world. Watch out for India and China, okay, so as not to forget them. And we've seen that over time, well, we have cycles. Before, it wasn't the United States that was the strongest. We had England, we had, well, it's cyclical like that, it lasts for periods. Okay. And for decades, decades, especially since the 20th century, the United States has been the leader. Generally, transitions are wars or big crises like that. And, well, potentially, will it last long? I don't know. But it's true that historically, we have rotations like this. And, well, we are high, and I couldn't position myself so high on the SP500. The best advice I've always given, which proved true when we had this drop, which proved true when we also had this drop, and when you start to have a drop of -20%, it becomes interesting to position yourself on the SP500. For the simple reason that, on Wall Street, in the United States, at what point do they indicate that we are in a bear market? It's after 20%. You see, in cryptocurrencies, well, generally it's after -70%, but for me, how I characterize a bear market is a downward trend. It's quite simply, on weekly, lower lows and lower highs. When I see lower lows and lower highs, then I say, "Okay, we are in a bear market." We are in a bear market. The bear market doesn't necessarily last 20 years. But here, you see, from 2021 until we go back into an upward trend, so for 2-3 years, we are in a bear market. Whereas over there, they estimate that when we have -20%, we are in a bear market. So, that means that during the Covid crash, you see, we are in a bear market. Except that their bear market lasts for three weeks because if we take this drop, hop, we are in a bear market, well, all those who sold because they heard we were in a bear market, in the end, they missed a good rally. So, it becomes interesting for those looking to position themselves on the SP500 from -20% to -30% to simply look for longs. But well, I'd be curious to have your opinion on this, what you do with DCA on the SP500, and I don't mind having SP500 in a wallet, but I prefer to have intelligent DCA at interesting levels, not just anywhere, not by buying at a market top. Do you believe in, well, America continuing to be, well, the leader? And well, there's India, there's China, all these are questions to ask, and it's no longer as it always is tricky. After, it's always tricky because we could ask the same question here, we could ask the same question here. In the end, we still have a market that grows. But I'm not a fan of holding the SP500 for 40 years. Moreover, I think if you watch my videos every day, it's not specifically for me to tell you, well, buy the SP500 and wait a month, buy again. You do that for 40 years and you're a millionaire. I think the goal is perhaps to be a millionaire a bit faster than at 60, perhaps for some who are listening to me, or at least to be a bit more active and especially not just to pray and say, "Okay, I hope the SP500 will still be alive." Well, the United States will still be alive in 20-30 years, depending on everyone's age. Uh, well, there you go, I'm rambling, but in any case, it's a line of thought that is interesting. Especially since we have gold making ATH after ATH, because it shows us that we have uncertainty logically. Gold is a safe haven. When we go like this to ATH after ATH after ATH, it means that we have investors, we have an economy, okay, that is rather uncertain where people prefer to protect themselves by taking refuge in safe havens, quite simply, like gold, like silver. And we see it clearly here, we have gold making ATH after ATH, which is not at all reassuring for risk-on markets, and which is also not reassuring for cryptocurrencies. So, to see, to see if it lasts. This is the first time in a while that we have a correlation between the US market and cryptocurrencies. Usually, well, in recent times, we've seen that when the US market fell, cryptocurrencies rose, and vice versa.
Well, on the other hand, altcoins. You know my opinion on altcoins long term, I'm still with you. It's good. There have been phases where it was interesting to own them. Currently, I don't want to say I'm a BTC maximalist, but well, already those who had a lot of BTC benefited in 2023, 2024, 2025. I feel half concerned because I had quite a bit, but not enough, apparently. I had altcoins, but luckily I had BTC and Ether, 50% easily in this bullish cycle. Now, for me, altcoins currently, there's nothing. I don't want to hear about them. There's nothing. Okay. That is to say, altcoins continue to fall. There's no bottom being put in. Some altcoins are totally dead. Nothing prevents trading them as I did here, playing a rebound. But you see, it's a trade I'll keep for a few days, a few weeks maximum. I'm not going to start thinking, "Let me enter Optimism because we're going back to ATH." No. And honestly, positioning yourself on altcoins currently is very tricky, and it's playing a bit with fire, it's playing with your portfolio. So, I still have the same opinion. I mainly have cash, I have BTC, I have Ether, I have a tiny bit of Solana, but I'm not entering Solana. Compared to before, I hesitated to enter Solana, but I'm not entering Solana, and I have Hyperliquid. I have Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid is weak at the moment, I have to admit it. The fundamentals haven't changed. It remains a good project, a project that decouples from other cryptocurrencies and continues to perform much better than some cryptos. Anyway, you just have to compare Hyperliquid. You put most cryptocurrencies. Most cryptocurrencies are recording worse performance compared to Hyperliquid. You take 2025, you see the difference in 2025. If we look at 12 months, we are flat. Let's say we are at break-even. Well, that's for someone who entered at the same level and exited at the same level. Personally, I entered at $13, I took my profits at $35-40, etc. on the SP500. On the SP500, on Hyper Liquid. There are very few altcoins. Here, I can, I can put myself in 12 months. BNB is doing quite well. XRP, well, 2025 is in the red. Solana is in the red. Here it's strongly in the red. You see, there are very few cryptocurrencies in 2025 that offer a year in the green. There are none, there are very, very few. So, from the moment you already have a crypto that is in the green in 2025, it's already a good choice compared to the market because I think out of a hundred altcoins, there must be about ten, yeah, ten, fifteen, twenty maximum, that are in the green in 2025. Now, on Hyperliquid, it remains an altcoin, and that's why I had orders in "fishing net" mode that were executed on this drop. I still have some down to $20. However, after that, I'm waiting on Hyper Liquid. As I said, it's a good project. I have strong convictions, not to the point of exposing myself to 30-40%. Currently, I must have, I must have 8-10% of Hyperliquid, but I have a part that is still pending, and I have cash, as I told you, I have two ways to position myself. Either in "fishing net" mode, or and often I combine the two. It's, I have a part in "fishing net" mode and a second part where I wait for a bottom to be drawn. For the moment, on Hyperliquid, there is no bottom drawn. So, I'm waiting, and I don't want to tie up all my cash. So, currently, you have my opinion on altcoins. I don't want to scare someone who is fully in altcoins. It's sure that it's not the best situation. I'm always transparent with what I say. My goal is not to reassure you, it's not to stroke you the wrong way. Many people on the internet will say, "Yeah, the altcoin season is coming." And they've been saying that for 3 months, 3 years, every month. Okay. There have been times when there were interesting signals for the altcoin season. I was the first to tell you about it, especially when we broke this level, and even when we broke this level, it didn't happen. It didn't, we didn't take off that strongly, huh. For the moment, there are no altcoins, for the moment, and I prefer to be wary. So, there you go. In any case, you have my opinion on altcoins. There can be setups that trigger, but for long-term investment, I prefer to wait, and for now, concentrate on BTC and Ether, perhaps altcoins later if we have encouraging signals. I've covered everything, I'll leave you with this. Don't hesitate to give me your opinion, what you're doing right now, your market sentiment. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for another video.