Transcription
The asset that is currently coming in, such as gold, has seen its price surge, reaching new highs consistently over the past 5 years. However, due to the war situation this year, gold prices have remained volatile. This has led many to wonder if investing in gold now is too expensive. But today, you no longer need hundreds of thousands to access the gold market. This is because TFEX has launched Mini Go Online Futures, a new form of online gold trading contracts that are scaled down by 10 times, to 1 Troy ounce or approximately 2 baht of gold. With just tens of thousands as collateral, you can trade referencing global gold prices in the hundreds of thousands, with flexible strategic opportunities. Whether gold rises or falls, you can profit at every turn. Profits and losses are calculated in Thai Baht, so there's no need to worry about exchange rate risks. Trading is available both day and night until 3:00 AM, adding an easier and more flexible gold investment option than ever before with Mini Go Online Futures. Trading is available now through TFEX. Hello, Business Tomorrow Live by Tender KP. On June 29th, at 9:40 AM, as we open the week on Monday, let's first follow the direction of gold prices. Gold prices have been falling since last week, and this week, they have continued to fall since opening. This morning, in the spot market, prices dropped by about 19 dollars. As for gold prices in our country, the association's opening price has recently dropped by 300 baht per baht of gold. This is the second change already. The first change saw prices drop to 64,350 baht. The direction of gold prices at this juncture appears to be facing clear pressure from a strengthening dollar and the volatile Middle East war situation, with new clashes between the US and Iran since last Thursday, just before a ceasefire was agreed upon this morning. Oil prices have also seen a rebound in both the NYMEX and Brent markets. The volatility from currency risks, the Middle East war, oil prices that remain, and the major issue that the gold industry and global investment assets are focusing on, which is interest rates, how will these affect gold in the future? For those who are currently hesitating, wondering if they should sell their gold held at high prices, and how far gold will fall, today we will discuss this with Mr. Jittitang Sitsipakdee, President of the Gold Traders Association, who has kindly joined us this morning. Hello, Mr. Jittit. >> Hello, Khun Jitta. Hello, listeners. >> Hello, Mr. Jittit. Gold has fallen again this morning, both global and Thai gold. Mr. Jittit, why do you think gold has fallen this time? The war seems to be over, so why is gold still falling? >> It seems to be over, but in the last two days, something new has come up, and there have been more clashes, causing gold prices to fall today. This is the first announcement, and now the second announcement, a drop of 300 baht from last Saturday and Sunday. Last Saturday and Sunday, gold prices were still above 4,000 dollars. On the 11th, the lowest point was below 4,000 dollars, and now it has risen again. However, it is still uncertain during this period because during the 60-day negotiations, I don't know what will happen. Today it changes, tomorrow it changes, including Iran. So, we have to see how the ceasefire or negotiations will end. I don't think it will be easy. The 14 points, I think, will take a long time to discuss. I don't see gold prices stabilizing soon. It might be volatile for a while. It won't be easy to resolve. Oil prices have also moved up slightly again today because of another round of clashes. I think in the short term, investors should be cautious. In the short term, I believe that 4,000 dollars will likely hold. On the 11th, it fell to its lowest point this year at 63,350 baht. This year, gold prices have made both new highs and new lows since the beginning of the year. I think I still see it in the long term. In the long term, perhaps 4 to 5 months from now, I see a chance for it to recover. However, the short term is still unclear. I cannot make a definitive prediction. I still believe that in the long run, the dollar might weaken, and gold prices might rise. I previously predicted that by the beginning or end of the year, it might reach 5,000 dollars, but now it might slow down a bit, perhaps until early next year. There might be events like this that cause some difficulty. >> But in the short term, the situation doesn't look good, Mr. Jittit. It has fallen and broken through 4,000. But this time, you believe it won't go back to the lowest point again, and 4,000 will hold? What do you think will support gold from falling below 4,000 again? >> I see many factors. I think they are trying to find a solution. But in reality, Israel is not yielding, and there are conflicts. Therefore, I don't think ending the war will be easy. However, if both sides cannot continue for a while, I think there will be changes. And during this period, I don't see the Fed raising interest rates. Everyone is afraid that raising interest rates will cause gold prices to fall. But I see a new Fed chairman, along with the situation in America, making it difficult to raise interest rates. If they don't raise them, it's difficult. If they raise them, it's difficult. In conclusion, I think the chance of not raising them is higher because, weighing the options, raising rates might not be sustainable for the government. But if they raise them, the government will likely face difficulties. If they don't raise them, it will also be problematic. So, I think they will not adjust interest rates. And during this period, if the situation eases a bit, even if the war doesn't end, I think oil prices won't rise as much as before, reaching a peak of around 120 dollars. Now it's around 70-something dollars, a significant drop. Therefore, I don't think there will be an interest rate cut in the short term this year. However, there won't be a significant rate hike either. Therefore, I think gold prices, which were previously predicted to reach 5,000 dollars by the end of the year, might be delayed until next year. But it won't be worse than this. >> But if there are signs of an interest rate hike, Mr. Jittit? Your base case is that they won't raise them because it will affect the US economy. But if it becomes necessary, for example, due to the Fed's mission to control inflation and manage the labor market, what will be the impact on gold if they have to raise interest rates? >> If interest rates rise, it might cause gold prices to fall. This is normal. But many times, predictions have been made that by the end of the year, there might be an interest rate cut, which caused gold prices to fall significantly. However, looking at it now, oil prices have fallen considerably, and inflation might slow down a bit. It might not be as high as 4.2%. It might not be very high at the moment. But if there is no interest rate cut, causing gold prices to rise sharply, if there is no rate cut, the sharp rise might be delayed. But if there is no interest rate cut, gold prices might gradually rise. Inflation might not be high. I don't think it will be higher than this. It might gradually slow down because if oil prices don't rise significantly again, then I think central banks are still buying gold. No one is selling. Only the SPDR fund has sold about 67 tons this year, compared to buying over 190 tons last year. I still believe they are holding onto it. And the demand for gold, I don't mean jewelry gold, but the gold being traded, I still believe there is demand for gold. Many central banks are still buying. Therefore, I believe that supply and demand for gold, in the long run, must balance. I think the US dollar might weaken. Because looking from the beginning of the year, gold prices were at 4,313 dollars, and the Thai Baht was at 38.59 baht. Now the Baht has risen to 33.40 baht. The Baht has weakened considerably, meaning the US dollar has strengthened considerably, even though it has accumulated massive debt since 2000. And central banks in every country are still selling dollars and buying gold. I'm still confused about how this is possible. I don't see the dollar weakening. >> It has moved up again because the dollar and gold move in opposite directions. Whenever the dollar weakens, gold must rise. >> Yes, but during periods when the dollar strengthens or interest rates are rising, Mr. Jittit, gold faces pressure. If we look back at cycles, for example, around 2012, gold rose a lot. But when the Fed's interest rates reversed and liquidity was withdrawn through QT, gold fell sharply, by 50%, from nearly 2,000 to 1,000, and it stayed down for 4-5 years before rising again. This time, with rising interest rates, will gold experience the same as in 2012? >> I think it will be different because the US economy has been in a recession since the middle of the year, and the real economy has collapsed, causing inflation to rise and the economy to stagnate. Therefore, the strengthening dollar, which is claimed to be due to rising oil prices, forcing people to sell gold to buy dollars, I see that no country is selling gold to buy dollars. They are only buying. Therefore, this reason doesn't make sense. Regardless, I believe that in the long run, the dollar must weaken. Especially if the war doesn't end, it will create more massive debt, and confidence will likely decrease. Central banks are buying more gold because they lack confidence in the US dollar. Therefore, no matter how you look at it, the dollar will weaken, and gold prices will rise again. >> This is interesting. It means you believe 2026 will not be like 2012 because this time, central banks are the main buyers who continue to buy gold. After all, they must fear the depreciation of the dollar or the increasing US debt more than in the past. >> Yes, and they fear that if they hold too many dollars, when sanctions are imposed, they might have their assets seized. This is clearly a problem for many countries now, even if they don't talk about it. But sometimes the numbers represent us, Mr. Jittit. We see the latest gold purchase figures from China, which is 163 tons, the highest since March of last year. China is buying a lot this time. How do you observe China's gold purchases this time? >> I think they are still buying. In reality, Europe is also buying. For example, recently, France sold gold to America and then bought gold for themselves. It's clear that not everyone is happy or comfortable. >> I think policies like this, and their economies, require serious consideration. >> Especially China, which you have likely studied and understand its economic and political structure. What is China's trend with gold? What is their policy? Will China continue to buy gold at this level for a long time? How does China position gold as an asset in its reserves? >> I think they have a lot of money. They think that before, we discussed that they have less gold than other countries, about 2,000 tons. The US has over 8,000 tons. >> But we haven't seen much from abroad saying they will conduct new inspections, and they don't dare to stop. But if China has a lot of reserves or family wealth, I think if their reserves increase by another 5%, they will have to buy thousands more tons of gold. Therefore, I think they have a lot, and they will gradually buy more. They won't buy all at once and sell. They have been continuously buying for many years. They buy regardless of whether it's expensive or cheap. I think they believe that gold prices will gradually rise. >> I think gold prices, both in China, Europe, and around the world, if central banks are buying, and considering the current price drop, I think people around the world are buying gold now. Thai people, in particular, tend to buy gold when prices are low. They buy and store it. And those who are holding at high prices and need to sell don't sell; they just keep it. And when prices fall, they gradually accumulate. >> Therefore, I think in the long run, many countries around the world, like India or elsewhere, are buying gold. Citizens are buying and storing it. So, no matter what, gold prices now, compared to the beginning of the year, are still much cheaper. At the beginning of the year, we mentioned that it hadn't risen yet. Since January 1st, it was at 4,313 dollars, and now it's still in the early 4,000s. I think it's a good opportunity if you have leftover money. I think gradually accumulating it is a good opportunity for investors who hold gold for the long term. >> For those who want to invest long-term and have spare cash, and for those who are stuck at high price levels, Mr. Jittit, what should they do? >> For those who are stuck, I think you might need to be patient and endure a bit. It is predicted that by the end of the year, the highest point was on January 19th, at 81,950 baht, when spot gold prices were at 5,584 dollars. I think if you are stuck long-term, you will have opportunities if you are patient. You might need to be patient for a while. I think there will be opportunities to recover. >> You mean, from your perspective, they don't need to rush to sell, right? They don't need to worry to the point of selling gold for fear that it will fall further. And some people are advised to buy more to lower their average cost, like buying more. What are your thoughts on these two approaches? >> If you have spare cash and it's leftover, you might be able to do that. If you have invested too much in gold, and it's not leftover cash, I think you can accumulate more when prices fall significantly if you still have spare cash. If you borrow money to buy, I don't think it's suitable. Because if it's not spare cash, I don't think you should invest. Investing in gold is a long-term endeavor. For those who are stuck, I think there will definitely be opportunities to recover. >> By the end of the year. >> At the latest, it might extend to early next year. But anyway, I think there will be opportunities by the end of this year. But we don't know how long the war will last. But even if it drags on long-term, I think America will have to incur more debt. I think this will cause central banks to buy more gold. Therefore, in the long run, the dollar will weaken, and gold prices must rise. It's quite certain. That's what I think. For those who say, "Oh, my gold is stuck, I'll sell some." If you have spare cash, what will you do with it? Inflation is rising, and gold still beats inflation. Will you go for interest rates, or what? I think it's better to be patient and endure. I recommend this, and it should be better. >> That's very clear from someone who has been in the gold industry his whole life. Now, Mr. Jittit, gold in this era is not just about gold prices or gold traded in the spot market or physical gold bars and jewelry. There is the futures market, speculation, which can cause volatility and sharp price swings recently. You have always warned about leverage or excessive speculation in the futures market. Mr. Jittit, has the situation improved? >> I think it has improved. I have mentioned before that going into futures and excessive speculation is very dangerous if it's not spare cash. If it drops suddenly, you can't sustain it. Like recently, China has also taken measures. They are limiting gold trading and futures speculation. They have implemented measures, which might be an improvement. Because those who speculate excessively, when they are pulled up or down, they can't keep up and don't have money to pay the margin, so they are liquidated. >> There is no other solution than spare cash. If it's short-term speculation, I think it's appropriate to use 2-3 times leverage, and if you go the wrong way in the short term, you must exit quickly. Short-term trading requires experience and studying information. Long-term speculation is definitely not worth it. You will always lose money. >> Regardless, Mr. Jittit remains cautious and warns about leverage in the futures market if you lack knowledge. But if you have knowledge and limit your positions appropriately, that's a matter for professionals and traders. Now, regarding the behavior of Thai people, Mr. Jittit. Gold has fallen by 200-300 dollars, and Thai gold prices have also fallen significantly. What is the behavior of those in the Thai gold market? When it falls, do they buy or sell? >> Currently, I think people who buy gold bars come to buy when prices fall. More people are buying than selling. Those who are at a loss are not selling anyway. But recently, there are very few who are panicked and sell. Very few. Mostly buying, but not as much as before. In the past, if gold fell a lot, people would queue up to buy in large numbers. Nowadays, this scene is rare. But they are still buying in small amounts. >> Why do you think that is, Mr. Jittit? Even though prices have fallen significantly, it should attract more people to buy gold, or has confidence in the gold market decreased, or do people have less money? What could be the reason? >> I think currently, when gold falls a lot, everyone is afraid. Some people buy a lot because they fear analysts predicting it will fall to 3,800 or 3,600 dollars. There are such rumors, and everyone is fearful. Some people with spare cash think, "Well, spare cash will always beat inflation," so they buy and store it, but not as much as before. If it falls sharply like this, people used to buy a lot. And those who are already holding might have limited funds, so they don't buy more. They just keep what they have. But those who are buying now are different from before. Before, if it fell a lot, people would come to buy and sell, queuing up. Nowadays, this scene is no longer present. It's less common. And recently, gold prices have fallen so sharply that many people are afraid because many analysts predict that gold might fall to 3,800 or 3,600 dollars. Some of them are fearful. >> And do you think it's possible for gold to fall to 3,800 or 3,600 dollars? >> Personally, I still believe that on the 11th, it fell to 3,997, and at that time, it was 63,350 dollars. There is a chance, a chance of support. It fell and then rose again. If nothing unusual happens, I think 4,000 dollars should hold. >> However, on the other hand, you mentioned that some people are stuck at high prices, meaning their money is all in gold. Even though gold prices have fallen a lot, they are not buying more. How will this affect the market in the future? Will it make it difficult for prices to rise because people have already invested their money in gold and are stuck in high zones? Will there be less buying power to push gold up in the future? >> I think central banks are still buying. Many central banks are gradually accumulating. When prices fall, they accumulate, regardless of the price. They gradually accumulate. >> I have never seen any country, except recently Turkey and Russia, selling some of their gold. >> But they have been buying all along. >> Yes. >> So, what we can expect are large buyers, right? Central banks, funds, institutions that will come in to receive and buy gold in the new round. What about you, Mr. Jittit? Prices have fallen to a deep level. From your perspective, is this a buying level? If you have spare cash and want to invest long-term, is this a good level to buy gold, or will we have a chance to buy it cheaper? >> I think if you have some spare cash, some people might still hesitate to buy gold. If you have leftover spare cash and are earning interest, you should allocate some of it to buy and store. I think no matter what, at this moment, around the early 4,000s, I think it's still worth buying. From my personal perspective. It must be spare cash. Spare cash is worth buying around 4,000. Some Thai gold traders say they want to wait to buy at below 60,000. Is that possible? >> Oh, below 60,000 seems difficult. It's currently over 64,000. >> Yes. >> The lowest point on the 11th was just over 63,000. I think it will be difficult to go lower than that. >> Therefore, the level around 4,000 dollars, and for Thai gold, around 63,000 baht, this is likely the bottom. From your perspective, Mr. Jittit, for investors who want to invest, we emphasize that you must have spare cash. This might be a good level to buy and hold for the long term. Finally, if you want to hear more of your perspective, Mr. Jittit, in depth, we will discuss the golden age of gold in the new era, an era where central banks worldwide are buying gold, an era of high government debt. Gold will be an asset of stability and one of the reserve assets that will continue to have significant demand. We invite everyone to attend the Thailand Gold Summit 2026. I have also invited Mr. Jittit. Mr. Jittit has kindly agreed to join us on the main stage, the first stage after the opening speech by the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Commerce, Khun Supachai Jirasuradej. The event will start around 9:00 AM. For Mr. Jittit's fans who are watching so closely, we invite you to listen to Mr. Jittit's perspective around 9:00 AM. We will have activities throughout the day until 6:40 PM. We invite those interested in gold investment, studying gold investment, and strategic safe-haven assets in depth for the year 2026. We guarantee that there will be plenty of information to share. On July 5th, this Sunday, you will meet Mr. Jittit. Mr. Jittit will be joining the event. What information have you prepared for our viewers? >> I am happy to. On the 5th, at 9:00 AM, we will meet. >> Yes, we will meet Mr. Jittit and other national gold experts who will gather at the Thailand Gold Summit. We will see you on the 5th. Thank you very much, Mr. Jittit. Thank you very much. >> Yes. >> Thank you. Hello. Hello, Mr. Jittitang Sitsipakdee, President of the Gold Traders Association, will be joining the Thailand Gold Summit on July 5th. For now, registration is still open. Admission is free. The event will be held at True Digital Park for the Thailand Gold Summit on July 5th. For investors who want to invest in gold, besides trading physical gold bars and jewelry, the TFEX market, the futures market, now has a new product: Mini Go Online Futures, a new form of online gold trading with a small size at TFEX. You can be confident. It's easy to start, requires little money. For TFEX and Mini Go Futures, the investment is very low, less than 20,000 baht, to start trading 2 baht of gold. Whether gold rises or falls, you can create profit opportunities in both directions. It's also a way to manage risk, so you don't have to touch the gold you already own and intend to hold long-term. You can be confident that the reference price is the global standard because it's from the TFEX market. There is no impact from currency exchange rates in profit and loss calculations. Trading is convenient through the TFEX standard system, regulated by the SEC, transparent and trustworthy. So, please consider Mini Go Online Futures. That's all for today. We will see you again in the next live session. Guitar and the team say goodbye. Goodbye.