Transcription
There appears to be a shift in the war in Ukraine. It's remarkable to be saying this, but there are signs that Ukraine may be starting to turn the tide against Russia.
This is a new phase and currently, um, Ukraine is ahead in this new phase. Just a half a year ago, a year ago, like the universal agreement among analysts was that, uh, Russia slowly is gaining, uh, an upper hand and Ukraine is slowly losing, but right now we are in, in a most, like, confident position we were since 2023.
This is a crucial reason for the change. Ukraine is now fielding growing numbers of medium-range drones able to strike well behind the Russian front line. It means for the first time, Kyiv is starting to be able to systematically target Russia's supply lines. Going after trucks and fuel tankers, the goal to starve Russia's front line troops.
In terms of this drone employment, it's pretty clear Ukraine has the upper hand right now. And so it's making things much more difficult for the Russian military, disrupting logistics behind the front line.
The strikes have already triggered a major fuel crisis in occupied Crimea. These are long lines for gas. Ukraine has also dramatically increased its strikes deep inside Russia with long-range drones.
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It's now launching hundreds of drones and increasingly, sometimes its own cruise missiles every week, pummeling key oil and gas facilities. The Kremlin, for now, often appearing largely powerless to stop them.
It's also not just drones. Analysts say that Ukraine appears to be also stabilizing some of its own manpower issues.
With Russia suffering higher casualties than ever and barely advancing, there is greater optimism in Ukraine that it might eventually force Vladimir Putin to consider a ceasefire.
Now that Russia's United is very much on the back game and we're seeing increasing costs of key strikes and and and middle strikes by by Ukraine, you know, I do think that the the prospects of negotiation better because, you know, it's not clear that Russia really gaining that much.
But Putin, for now, shows no sign of compromising. The positive trends for Ukraine are still very fragile and Russia could still adapt.
I think the biggest mistake we can make right now in this phase where things look positive for Ukraine is to underestimate the Russian enemy in all of this because this has been something that we've been doing over the last couple of years. This is still very heavy fighting and and a lot of things can go wrong also for the Ukrainians.
We are still in the middle of of the war and it's still premature to say that it's the beginning of the end.