Transcription
What is going on traders? Let's get you prepared for this week to come. The main theme of the week is going to be uncertainty. And I'll tell you what that means. But in the beginning, I'll go over what you need to pay attention to this week and then give you some of my favorite setups and technical analysis on the market towards the latter part of the video.
So, if we take a look at the FOMC watch tool, the odds for the December rate cut are now crushed to 45.8%. Just a month ago, this was at 96%. And this obviously coincides with the fact that the White House and and the BLS are are likely not going to release a lot of the data for October. Now, I saw that there was news from the US Labor Department that says that they're actually going to be releasing data on November 20th, not for October, for September. That's how far behind we are. And you could see here that it is scheduled for November 20th. We are going to get the jobs reports, the unemployment rate, and the non-farm employment change on November 20th. So, at least we have some data to go off of.
And I promise we will get into the market. But the reason that the market is comfortable consolidating here at the 50-day moving average is because of uncertainty. And the reason that we're seeing a lot of the high beta names that are tied to AI data centers, etc., why we're seeing them down 30, 40, 50% is because of uncertainty, right? The less certain the economic picture is, the less likely investors are going to have a risk on appetite for that kind of stuff. But that is also why we are seeing the major companies the the meggaap companies that actually do make money. We are seeing them pretty much stable aside from Meta which we will get into. That is also why Bitcoin and crypto are crashing at the moment. You can see here the correlation between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin is now we are now in negative territory. Meaning Bitcoin is decoupled from the S&P 500. But I don't want to jump ahead of myself. We will get into that when we discuss the technicals and the market.
Now, what else is going on this week? Nvidia is reporting earnings on Wednesday, November 19th. So, everybody in their mom knows that Nvidia is going to beat on earnings and beat on revenue. Morgan Stanley says that they expect Nvidia to post its strongest quarter in a while as Blackwell chips ramp fast. The bank raised its price target to 220 and kept an overweight rating.
Now I said that the theme of the market currently is uncertainty. Uncertainty around the economic picture, uncertainty around the White House and its ability to and and the subsidiaries and their ability to produce uh data that the that the consumers are confident in. Uncertainty around whether we have hit some sort of peak in the AI bubble. Uncertainty about the Fed cutting. Uncertainty about the the Fed stopping their quantitative tightening. So, the market is craving some sort of certainty and it can get that this week with Nvidia reporting guidance. Like I said, we all know they're going to beat earnings and they're going to beat revenue. What they say in terms of guidance, in terms of demand, in terms of if if they say we just do not see a slowdown in demand, I don't know what you guys are talking about with this bubble thing. We cannot keep up with demand and demand is only rising. I think that can provide some much needed certainty to the market in my opinion. And even though the data that we're going to get on November 20th is for September if that data can give a signal to the market or can allow investors to paint a picture of what the Fed is going to do come December 10th, then I think that will provide an additional boost to the market.
Now, one thing that's interesting is on the calendar itself, they added on December 5th a new entry for unemployment rate, non-farm employment change, etc., a whole new batch of employment data. So, if on November 20th, they're going to release September, are they then going to release October and November in December, or they just going to release November and skip October altogether? Either way, this to me is a good sign because the government is now open and so like I said, the market is craving certainty and in that the more data we have, the more certainty not only we have, the more data that the Fed has in order to operate. Remember the Fed meeting is on December 10th and this is on December 5th. And on December 10th, we will also get CPI as well before the FOMC meeting at 2:30. So CPI will be at 8:30 and then the Fed meeting is at 2:30 on December 10th. So some very interesting times here with regards to the timing of the release of this data and how soon it uh it precedes the Fed meeting.
Now let's talk about the market, some technical analysis and what am I looking at this week. So because we are in a period of uncertainty, I'm still am not very swing heavy. I I'm not a fan of big swings here. In my opinion, the market is clearly comfortable consolidating here at the 50-day moving average. Now, one sign or one piece of good news is if you look at the put call ratio on both of these days, so November 7th on Friday and then November 14th on Friday, these local bottoms here, the put call ratio was above one. And when we get a put call ratio above one, hopefully you could see this behind my fat head. Yes, you can. This blue line is one, but that means that there are more calls than puts. So when you get a skewed bet to one side, that traditionally means that we will likely get a squeeze or a local bottom. You can see here every time the put call ratio was above one, it coincided with a local bottom. Same thing when the put call ratio is skewed to the call side that typically means that we are at a local top because there are way more bets in favor of the market than against it.
Now to add a little bit of positivity to the sentiment it says here that Bergkshire Hathaway surprising new tech stake Bergkshire announced a position in Alphabet which for those of you that have been around for a long time is pretty weird. Bergkshire famously doesn't really invest in tech stocks and it has said time and time again that it invest its investment in Apple is not because it views Apple as a tech company. It's because it views Apple it views Apple as a consumer company consumer products. It does not view Apple as a tech company. But they bought almost 18 million shares a $4.3 billion stake in Alphabet. The reported price was 24310 which obviously makes us feel way better about our buys because I bought the last time that I bought Alphabet was in the 140s. And so the sentiment here on the internet especially if you read X is that if how can you be bearish on AI if Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway are willing to put this amount of money in at this price for a tech company. Now, I do agree that obviously that does promote some a little bit of enthusiasm and optimism, but one, we don't know that Warren Buffett did that, even though trades of this size usually include Warren Buffett, but he's not the only one that makes investment decisions. And two, their portfolio size is $267 billion. So, 4 billion out of 267 is a small percentage, but still, I'll take the enthusiasm.
Frankly, I'm a little bit more enthusiastic by this story here as it relates to AI than Buffett's small stake in Alphabet or Berkshire's small stake in Alphabet. It's the fact that Google is spending $40 billion in AI infrastructure. They're doing it in Texas, which is good for the country, but it sort of promotes this idea that, hey, maybe we're not at the bubble peak just yet.
Now, one of the stocks that I talked about was Nebius, and we are now down 41% from highs, and it is starting to look attractive to me, sitting at the 100 day moving average. I want you to Google Goldman Sachs Nebus if you're interested in this company and read their research on it. But their 12-month price target is 155. They raised it from 137 prior. That's a 75% upside, and they boosted Nebius's 2027 revenue to 7.6. 6 billion. So, I would still put this in the high beta category, but I'd much rather buy at 41% down from highs than at 140. Now, as I said, I'm limiting the number of swings that I do this week with the group with the traveling trader discord. However, uh I will be looking at starting a position in Nebia soon. We also do have bullish divergence between the RSI and the price as the RSI is almost in oversold territory for the first time since October 2024.
And I just want to pause real quick and say that Funded Next, which is a prop company that I'm trading with right now, this to me is one of the best deals in the prop industry. If you look at the profit target, I don't know of any prop company that's actually offering this where the profit target and the max loss limit is at a 1 one. So on the 50k accounts, for instance, your profit target is 2500 and your max loss limit is 2500. Typically on most prop firms, this will be 3K and 2K. There's also no activation fee on all accounts here. There's no max withdrawal limit. There's no buffer required like on some other prop firms. So, if you wanted to trade futures and you wanted to leverage what we taught in the free accelerator and you don't want to risk your own capital, in my opinion, as I said in that accelerator, go with a prop firm. And if you use code TT, you'll get 10% off even this price here. So, go to fundedext.com and use the code TTT. Let's get back to the show.
Another stock that I'm potentially looking at this week that looks really interesting to me is Tesla. So Tesla dropped down to the 618 of the fib. If you measure the fib this entire move up, we have now dropped to that 618 level, bounced off there like a champ. The pattern that's really intriguing me here, that's really interesting me is the fact that that we had this consolidation and this manipulation down to a key level. We also filled the gap uh in September from September 12th to September 15th. We completely filled that bounced above 400. Now what I'm looking at is is for a break of structure and we actually did get a 1 hour break of structure on Tesla last Friday. So I don't mind depending on what happens on on Monday. I do not mind a bounce from here from here. Now if we break back below the structure then it's over. But if we do get a bounce from here, then I think that this pattern can be the start finally. I've been waiting for a Tesla swing here. Finally, of a Tesla swing back to the 470s and potentially towards 500.
And I was taking a look at the JEX data. I know people like to say GEX. I hate that word. It sounds weird to me. I like to say Jex. But the gamma exposure, if you look here at the 480 level, look, it's for the December 5th expiration, this is the only gamma that's available. So for December 5th, you look at 480, there's this huge call wall at 480. That doesn't automatically mean it's going to 480, but most of the positive jacks is actually at the 480 level and above. If you take a look here, 500 has the most positive jacks, followed by 450 and then 480. So, most of the gamma exposure on Tesla is actually to the upside.
If you're in the Traveling Trader Academy Discord, look out for my alert. If you're not, I you know, do what you like, but a lot of people try to go in blindly off of videos, delayed videos, not really knowing how to manage the risk or what to watch out for. It's up to you.
Now, Micro Strategy starting to look interesting to me. I mean, this is a my god like what a a year or second half of the year Micro Strategy is having. But if you take a look, it is now in the monthly fair value gap. And if you take a look at the weekly, we are almost in oversold territory on the weekly. Now, I'm not keen on investing in Micro Strategy, just looking for a swing trade, trying to leverage what Bitcoin is doing. I posted this on X before the weekend, but I said watch Bitcoin this weekend. If we can get a weekend push below 90K, that's a screaming buy for me. So, I'm looking to see if Bitcoin can fall into this area of liquidity here, which would take it to 90K or below. Obviously, we need to see signs of a reversal. But if that's the case, then there may be an opportunity on Micro Strategy. It's very hard to see high beta stocks like Micro Strategy recover, but when they recover, they do recover. And in the same way that it seems irrational on the drop, it's even way more rational on the rally. But to me, this is not a stock that I want to invest in. I'd much rather invest in Bitcoin itself, but if there's a trade there, um, I would like to take advantage of that.
As I said, I was stopped out of Bit Mine Immersion Technology, which is tied to Ethereum, and I have not yet re-entered a trade there, but and I don't see a swing trade yet on Meta, but like I said, it's trading at 19 times earnings, cheapest of the Mag 7 right now. I think it's something like 40% operating margin, already monetizing on AI with something like a 14 or 15% impression growth. And then on Monday, November 17th, we are getting the Netflix stock split. I told you guys we'd see a little runup and then a sell the news. That's exactly what happened. But after Netflix stock splits, if we do get a drop, in my opinion, that is a buyable drop. It will also make it a lot easier to sell puts on Netflix because the stock price will be 10 times cheaper.
Anyway, traders, that is it for this video. I want to get you prepared every single week. Hopefully, that gave you a nice concise rundown of what to watch for and gave you some ideas on what to watch for from a stock perspective. Let me know what you're watching. Would love to hear from you. Leave it in the comment section below. Subscribe to the channel. Hit that notification bell. Stay safe out there, traders.