Transcription
Hey folks, welcome to verifiedinvesting.com. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here.
Now again, all week I'll be coming to you from my vacation, but nonetheless, I want to get you the information on the charts. And let's be honest, either way, I'm looking at the charts. Might as well do a video and keep you informed. I do love technical trading enough to do it on vacation.
All right, into the action we're going to cover today. We're going to briefly look at the S&P 500, but overall I'm going to focus more on gold miners, oil, and natural gas. So, those are the key components in today's video. We'll touch on other things as well, but suffice it to say right now in the early trading action, we're seeing the S&P 500 trading just slightly higher on the day. And again, you can see right here, a little bit of an uptick on the ES futures. Nothing major here. This is more of kind of July 4th hangover, light volume is getting the markets to see a small rebound.
We are seeing a little bit of a move higher in names like SanDisk and Micron. If we look at those briefly here, we can see again, you can see initially in the early pre-market, we were up much higher, but have faded, but still net green from the close late last week. All right, so again, we're seeing a little bit of a resurgence in the memory names, but remember, there's some key factors here this week. SKH Highix, which is a monster size company and direct almost identical competitor to Micron, will list its ADR shares, advanced depository receipts here in the United States for a $29 billion offering. So, they'll be offering $29 billion. That's almost half of what SpaceX did on their IPO. So there's more shares coming to the public that need a essentially a home or investor liquidity to soak it up. And think about a sponge that's just getting, you know, more and more drenched with water to the point where you hold it up and it just drips out of that sponge. And that's what I fear is going on in this market. And I think that's going to be a headwind for these memory plays all week. Yes, you'll have bounces, but again, more supply coming on the market via shares from SKH Highix is going to be problematic for Micron and SanDisk throughout the next week or two. We'll also get the Fed minutes this week as well as some other economic data.
But let's jump into a couple other charts. So, let's go over here quickly touching on gold. Gold today a little bit of a move higher, but again, notice we're just staying within this wedge pattern. So, we're watching as a technician which direction do we break? Do we break above this? Okay, break out. Game on. Or do we come back in and reattack this lower level and potentially see a breakdown?
Looking at silver before we go to the miners. Look at silver, folks. Doing exactly what I said it would. Coming back to the 63-64 level right here. This was former technical support here, here, and here. Breaks down, retraces to what we call the scene of the crime, essentially the break point. And here is where it's likely going to find resistance between 63 and 64.
Now, let's look at the miners here, the GDX. Now, the GDX is intriguing here for a couple reasons. Number one, we did have a trend line breakdown on this chart, right? So, if you take a trend line right here, look at the beauty of this trend line. By the way, I love how these trend lines show us that they are indeed important. And the reason I say that is because you have this low pivot connected to this low pivot. And it's very obvious. Low pivots you find by finding V kind of moves like that. So, it's the lowest point in recent history. Notice how price went all the way back up. And here it was up and then had its one bigger correction before it continued on its way. That's a clear pivot low right there. The secondary one here is another valley or V-bottom, right? Big drop down, big bounce up. That creates a pivot low. And then look at how you extend that out and price comes down right here, hops along the trend line, breaks, and then does a classic retrace to the scene of the crime there and gets rejected. So, in terms of the gold miner GDX, this line is now your line in the sand for whether or not you get back to that bullish run. Now, my guess is on gold, if we did see gold break out above here, that would coincide with the GDX recapturing this $88 level to the upside. In addition, there's a secondary trend line that I'm continuing to follow right down here. Look at that. Basically align perfectly. I'm trying to get it to match up identically, right? High pivot to high pivot. And it's all in that same zone. So again, this area right in here on the miners is significant resistance. By the way, this is one of the reasons, this chart is one of the reasons why I'm a little hesitant to get too bullish yet on gold. Still thinking it could flush down to the 3500-3600 level because we have so much overhead resistance on the miners in this zone. Now, if the gold miners break down further, your next level is going to be right here at $68.60, $68.50. 50s area. And ultimately, if we continue to correct, you're kind of looking at this zone right here. Anywhere between 58 and essentially 54 as being a huge level of support. In fact, based on TA, that would be my big accumulation zone. And just want to refresh that I continue to be longer term very bullish on the miners, longer term very bullish on gold. But again, near-term I'm I've got a mixed picture here. And I'm, you know, listen, the charts are the charts. It is what it is, as they say. And right now, this overhead hanging area is something that has to be dealt with on the chart of GDX. Just like on gold, if we flip back to gold, gold must find out which way is it going to break. Is it going to break to the downside or is it going to break to the upside?
Now, just like the stock market recently over the last few months before this recent pullback, we saw it break above a level. We could easily see this flush back below. Now, I think the stock market and if we go back to the S&P 500, right? So, if we look at the S&P 500 here, we knew we broke above this ups-sloping trend line, this ascending trend line here on the S&P that goes all the way back to the bull market high of 2021. It actually extends even further, but just for ease of showing, I'm just doing it from there to this high here. And then notice how we're hammering on this. This is kind of what I'm thinking inversely for gold, which kind of makes sense, right? If gold's a hedge or a safe haven or re-refinding its safe haven aspect, then gold could break below that wedge for a short period of time and then break back above like I think the stock market is doing here where it's up here and it broke out above this longer-term trend. Let's get rid of that trend line just to keep ease. So it, you know, again, it really shouldn't have broken here based on TA, but it was able to. And now it, my guess is what we're going to see here, we see a kind of a fake out to the upside, getting the last bulls on board, which is what's happened over the last couple months, and then I think it's going to break back below here. Inversely, my guess based on what I've seen in charts is we're going to eventually get a breakdown in gold, right? So you're going to get this kind of wedge. It's going to fake people out breaking down, come down, flush to that 3500, 3600, right? And then it's going to recapture and fool everyone, right? And when I say everyone, it's not going to fool us, but you'll see a lot of bearish sentiment on this, right? It's going to be the last flush out of the weak hands and then gold will recapture and start to make that move to the upside dramatically. And again, just amazing how markets work and how you see these kind of fake outs where markets can break short-term above key levels and then ultimately flush back through. So keep that keep that in mind. And obviously listen, let's just watch this because the the basics of it is on gold is if we break above this trend line, it's off to the races, right? I mean it's and not literally off to the races, but at least it's broken out at that point. Um we'll see which way it breaks.
All right, let's move on to crude oil here. Crude oil again near-term I am bullish on crude oil. I love and I absolutely love that near-term I saw so many headlines this weekend about a glut in oil like so much oil yet if you think about statistically and data-based it's not. Now that those headlines on mainstream financial media go to kind of make people more bearish on oil, right? Think about what's been going on obviously ignore I mean people were so bullish on oil when we were at $120 or even at $100 a barrel. Now you have the opposite impact where people are overly bearish and that just makes me short-term bullish, right? I mean, technically speaking and psychologically speaking, which really go hand in hand. Now, if we look here, we knew we filled a gap. All right, so gap fill on. I've been trained and I've trained my mind to not think about the headlines that I see on mainstream media about a glut in oil or what's being talked about on CNBC, but this is a gap fill. So until proven otherwise, until it breaks and confirms, I think short-term we trade back up. I've already looked and isolated this level down around $79 a barrel as my upside near-term target. That's about a 15% upside move. Now, not only is that a pivot low, but if we do a Fibonacci retrace from our high of $120, right, to our recent lows, look at where the 236 Fibonacci is. Literally right at that low. So that gives us double factor technical targeting for a bounce on oil. And so again, you might say, well, why not? Why couldn't oil go higher? Well, it could, but I actually think mid-term to longer term oil is still going lower. Now, the thesis for lower oil, mid to long term, is basically a slowing US economy. All right. So again, you know, how long can the US economy hold on when you have 75-80% of people already feeling like they're in a recession? When inflation, even though oil's come in, we're still seeing food prices go up. We're seeing all these other things go up. It just eats away. And yes, you can have a a small percentage of the population holding up the consumer spending for a certain amount of time, but that's reliant on the stock market continuing to go up. Now, if the AI trade is going to stall out a little bit here, then do we see a slowdown there as well?
Now, looking at the bigger time frame, how low? So, let's say we bounce back up to about this $78, $79 maybe $80 a barrel level and then start coming in, where would oil come down? Well, what we do is we just zoom out and there's an amazing trend line here, guys. Check this out right here. So, we're essentially taking a trend line, dragging it through these former pivot highs, right? So look, high pivot from 2022. High pivot from this is this was in March 2022 in June of 2022 connects right through the high in June of 2025. And look at how when we gapped, we gapped above. This is what we call a river theory in in my technical analysis playbook where we closed and then we gapped above the river. We kind of jumped over the resistance line right here and then it had a huge run. Well, the idea is a return to the scene of the crime. A technical, you know, technical term that I've coined to mean that eventually we have to go revisit that line. Currently sitting around $61, but remember this line will go lower over time. So it really depends on where it is. And again, I guess my guess and again just going through, you know, how long this could take. Let's say it takes a little time for us to move back up here and then we kind of head back down here. We're looking at kind of mid-50s to $50 down the line. Obviously, this would be October. Uh but if we can see a slowdown by late in the year, yeah, I think $55 to $50 by year-end on crude oil is absolutely a possibility for a target on crude oil. So near-term bullish, uh mid to longer term bearish.
Let's look at natural gas. Natural gas continues to make this beautiful little in kind of cup and handle pattern. It still has not broken out though yet, right? And so I think that's the important thing that I'm just monitoring here. I definitely am interested in a long trade on this. But again, I need to see some sort of significant kind of breakout. And I guess one of the things we could do here is we can draw this trend line. Look at how this trend line on natural gas from this high on March 9th of 2026. Exact high, exact high, exact high, and exact high. So basically, you're watching to see do you get a breakout above 3.35 or so. If that happens, then I actually think we run as high as 4.30, which would be a significant basically 25-30% move to the upside on natural gas. And by the way, natural gas is slated to take over dominance from crude oil in the next year or so as the most widely used energy source here in the US, probably more so globally as well as we know. But I think that's very interesting to see that narrative. The seed is being planted out there by institutional money on natural gas to drive price up a little bit higher. And that would also be a potential reason why oil could come down if there's more and more of a glut there in oil due to kind of a flip on natural gas as an energy source. All right, so that's really what we're kind of keeping an eye on. If we go to the weekly, you can see again big pop, big drop, and then here's that trend line. We're looking at the kind of the cup and handle pattern on the weekly chart. You can see it kind of forming here as well. But overall, natural gas has been very quiet of late, but we will be keeping an eye on it in the coming days and weeks. I may be jumping in if we get a breakout on the charts overall.
All right, just a reminder folks, come to verifiedinvesting.com if you're interested in my exact entries and exit alerts. All right. And also, if you just want to join my YouTube here, my premium YouTube, and I did put out a coupon code yesterday, uh there's in fact two active coupon codes. One for a service discount that's the biggest we've ever offered, as well as an additional discount on courses above what we're already doing. That's just join my YouTube and you get access in the videos to those coupon codes. I put out a members-only video just yesterday. All right, you guys have a great rest of your day. Thank you so much for tuning in. I appreciate your support. the kind words, the comments, you guys mean the world to me. Have a great rest of your day. Take care.