Transcription
This is an important episode. I mean, last year you saw that quarterbacks took massive leaps in from year one to year two, and that bore itself out in terms of fantasy points. I mean, Drake May finished as the quarterback two in points per game after being drafted as the quarterback 13 last September. Caleb Williams, the quarterback, eight in points per game after being drafted as the quarterback 14. And conversely, Jane Daniels drafted as the quarterback three, finished a, you know, up down stop start year as the quarterback 17 in points per game. That's what we're going to talk about here today. The year 2 breakouts at quarterback. Four names Hayden and three guys locked into their starting jobs and one who probably will draw a few starts this year too.
>> Uh perhaps so. Uh well it depends on how you would grade those starts from last year. But I think what you said just throwing out some of those quarterbacks, there was very clear narratives and about their rookie seasons that you had to make the the argument is it going to get better or was that just kind of the baseline for what there is? That's that was Caleb Williams in the sacks. That was Drake May just being playing a little bit quicker and then using his legs a little bit more. Uh accuracy, all those type of things where like you can see the potential. Are they going to hit it? Is there something about the college profile to the growth to the rookie year? There's a lot of little things we have to kind of nitpick. Uh and I think these guys and this next crop of guys, they have a lot to work on.
>> Harp on that point a little bit more. So often once we see these college quarterbacks in the NFL, their rookie season almost anchors the opinion on what it is for the remainder of their rookie contract. And so we're going to talk about that opinion that we have from them, not just as prospects, but as rookies and then what can improve and what might not. And for me, I know so much of the improvement or scaling down a bit can come from the environmental change. So we'll factor all those in here today. So we're not going to go by ADP order where these guys are being drafted on underdog right now. By the way, we're going to do that when we talk about tight ends, running backs, and wide receivers the rest of this week in our year two breakout week. Instead, we're going to start with where these guys were drafted in the actual NFL draft. So, let's kick things off with Cam Ward. We know the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft. Right now, being selected as quarterback 22, the fourth pick of the 12th round. What did you see when reviewing I'll say it, all of Cam Ward's dropbacks during his rookie season.
>> Very up and down. I really hope Cam Ward turns out to be a guy because the arm strength is it's a tier stuff and there was some ridiculous throws both in structure and out of structure. Rolling to his right, rolling to his left, and he can really whip it in there. He's kind of an old school gunslinger uh type. Um and he's got the arm talent where if this thing clicks, then you're going to have a fun quarterback. Unfortunately, there's not a single statistical argument in favor of Cam. We're talking about QB 38 in EPA for dropback, 39th in passing success rate, 40th in catchable ball right ball rate. That was out of 41 qualifying quarterbacks. Caveats are the offensive line was bad, the scheme was bad, the receivers were even, I would say, worse than the other two factors in there. Uh, things got a little bit better, but it's not fixed for Cam Ward. And then I think I have some issues just based off his own tape where he really has to progress here, not just to be like a good quarterback. I think there's a lot of progression that needs uh for him just to even be an average quarterback in the NFL right now.
>> Interesting. Uh, he was selected as the number one overall pick. He did not play statistically as you said like you want the number one overall pick to do. But I would say my observation, my belief in him is kind of unchanged of who he is as a player and how he needs to win in the NFL as it was with him entering the league. We we talked about it. He, you know, just has a dynamite arm and you see it on definitely these like posts and and corner routes that these sideline passes that to me he throws with an anticipation to layer it in on these intermediate and especially downfield passes. Uh, they can come from an awkward angles, but man, the the loft, the trajectory, the velocity, it pops out of his hand is a lot of fun. But then like you said, you look at the underlying numbers. Uh bottom seven EPA per drop back since 2016 among quarterbacks. Also in that time frame, only Deshun Kaiser had a lower success rate. But you know me, Hayden, I I I like to factor in the environment that he played in. And boy oh boy was it absolutely brutal. And you know, some of the first round picks that they spent on the offensive line haven't really worked. I look at you at right tackle uh and then at left tackle and Dan Moore, not great. and then having to literally thrust and build a passing attack at times around Alec Aaymanor and Shamir DK and like Van Jefferson as we went through and through and then starting seasons off with like against the Denver Broncos for example from start to finish when your play caller and head coach also gets fired mid-season this is somewhat similar to like a situation that Caleb Williams found himself in during his rookie year but you know you and I had real confidence that Caleb immediately would come in in year two and like take it to
>> multiple notches, not just the surrounding talent, but also the play caller and head coach. Were you on that spectrum that Cam Ward can do something similar here in year two?
>> I have my doubt just because the Titans infrastructure is still I think really bad. Like I like Carnell Tate for sure. Uh do you know who their center is? Do you know who their other guard is? It's still the same >> like the backup center for Brian Day or has played underneath him in the past. So yes, it's a lot of Dayball's buddies here.
>> Yes. And then it's Dayball, which by the way, Dayball was fun for for Jackson Dart in terms of like fantasy points because he kept, you know, calling these run plays. Cam Ward, I think's a fine athlete. You just really never see it in terms of the ground game. And I think that's going to be the hard part because the Jackson Dart drop backs, which we get to, there wasn't a bunch of creativity in the past game. Uh, and he's going to have to build that for for Cam Ward. So, uh, excluding all the like, you know, environmental factors here, just like getting back to what Cam Ward, the process and all that types of stuff, I thought his accuracy was a little bit underwhelming, the the the arm talent is about just delivering the football instantaneously with a ton of RPMs. I thought him layering the ball was a little bit more hit and miss. The downfield stuff was really bad in terms of catchable ball rate, which was kind of surprising to me. And it's not an arm strength issue, it's kind of the accuracy. And I do think we talked about this in his Cam Ward Miami film is there would be some times where he was a tick late and he had the arm talent to still rifle it in there and he would make good on that. In the NFL, I think him being a tick late did kind of catch up to him. I think he had a really bad pick six on a checkown where he just did not check things out. On other drop backs, I thought there would be somebody coming open, he was a little bit late and by the time he rifled in there, then you have an interception there. And then the other weird thing that came up with him is these fumbles. He had uh 2025 leading 11 fumbles. He has tiny hands. If for those that care about this, some of them like on the windup sometimes he'd be kind of scrambling around the ball get kind of hit. A lot of these were kind of self-inflicted. And that had me a little bit kind of spooked because if the environment is going to stay bad and he's making mistakes that are just purely based on him, that's where I'm worried about the 2026 version of Cam Ward here just because I still don't trust the Titans infrastructure. I mean, two years ago, the Titans had a season with Will Levis at quarterback. He had one of those, you know, mind-numbing plays that seemed like at least one every single game. Uh, it was funny, you and I, knowing that Kam was going to go first, the Titans said, "Buckle your seat belts, Titans fans, because you're going to get similar things here with K." It felt like one time per game, he he made a play that uh literally would destroy a drive, give it to the opposition. Just craziness. And I think that sometimes comes from him wanting to, you know, change the outcome of a contest on every single drive. Like he is a big play hunter and you'll see that with how long he holds onto the football, how much he wants to drift and drift and drift. And I I think Brian Dal wants to change that this year. Like adding Juan Del Robinson, for example, gives you a quick access player, right? someone who can win easily, back foot, release it, choice routes, all that type of stuff. You also have someone like Carell Tate who can go up and is a technician as an outside wide receiver at really every level of the field, a a trusted pair of hands that you can't point to last year having that. I mean, there are these plays against like the Broncos, I think this was in week one if I'm not mistaken, where second and eight, deep in his own half, he is really wide open on a dig route, but the right tackle gets pushed back into his lap a bit. So instead of kind of trusting his progre progression, excuse me, and his protection, he drifts and buys time and he still throws it to Calvin Ridley on like the opposite side of the field out of structure for a gain of 12. Even though in structure in phase that pass could have been right there for also a gain of 12 yards, but then two plays later, he hits that same dig route over the middle of the field, but then Calvin really drops it on top of it. So I even saw like progression in games. However, you didn't see progression for the entire season just because of the useless, abominable, like awful environment that he was in.
>> Almost gave a platform for zero type of success or consistency.
>> Yeah, I I saw the same build on, I guess, is what I'm saying.
>> Yeah, I see the same thing. Like the outer structure plays were nice. They were not so bankable. Like when we were watching Caleb Williams, we're like, "All right, the level of athleticism from Caleb Williams, like this is going to happen forever." Cam Ward's a tier below that. Even if they have the same kind of, you know, arm talent, Caleb Williams just moving differently. Drake May, his scramble ability, just a way different tier than what we're dealing with with Cam Ward. And I thought that the floor remains pretty concerning because there were a lot of sacks that were Cam Ward sacks. And then you said too long
>> too long. And that's and that's it's it's exactly what we said about him in college where we're going to be really excited. It's going to hopefully take not as much time as I think it is after studying this tape. And maybe he can turn into like this Jordan Love type of player who holds on the ball, throws the ball down the field, but the arm talent takes over. We're pretty far away from that in my opinion. I think if Cam Ward's going to hit, it's going to take multiple years from now. And I think that he has a lot of work uh work to do to kind of speed up this thing. And then also he the mistakes just cannot be I'm fumbling the ball in the pocket for fumble sixes the other way, right? And hopefully those are just rookie mistakes and hopefully it's just because he doesn't trust trust the right tackle play caller Ellumor all those type of things but at some point the success rate is so low that to get to league average this is going to take a little bit longer than I was hoping for.
>> Yeah, there there's a difference in you know missing a sideline route and throwing it out of bounds and like that's a negative play versus your negative play against the Miami Dolphins like just losing a fumble for no reason. Just a total lack of protecting the football. Um, it's interesting and this goes back to exactly his time with the Hurricanes where I think when he puts his foot in the dirt and is decisive on scrambling, he has some really nice moments of picking up 12 to 13 yards. And I really hope that Brian Dball can coax that out of him versus just this hold on to it, hold on to it mentality. And then there were a couple of plays where moving laterally and getting to the corner that he could evade some sacks. But I'm kind of 5050 split on if he has the athleticism that can sustain that as his career goes along because it it almost felt like to me, oh, he just evaded that versus actually having like real burst to to be dangerous in that area.
>> I just overall maybe I'm misinterpreting what you're saying. I believe I'm more optimistic that he can actually turn around immediately, that he can be a really fun watch and a really enjoyable quarterback here this season because just the environment is going to get so much better. And that combines with that he has a short memory. Like he'll make those mistakes and then oh in the fourth quarter even if I'm down by 13 points I see a one-on-one shot, I'm taking it. And I I again I think that's a great mentality to have. Just to go quickly into the structural environment he had last year. The Titans were first in the NFL with 78% of their snaps being in 11 personnel. Okay. While using shifts and motions at the second lowest rate in the league and then they were under center just 25% of the time. That was 24th in the league and also number one in 3x1 sets. So everything was vanilla. Everything was a bit static. It was a bit stationary. It wasn't creative at all. It didn't feel like he had a bunch of open receivers once he hit the end of his drop. And then when he did fire it into these tight windows or downfield shots or one-on-one stuff, he didn't get a ton of help in a lot of those situations. And then when other things did go well, he held it on too long and had some misses on top of it. So again, it was like this circular cycle that was kind of self-eing at this point. And uh you just couldn't escape that during his rookie season.
>> And the defense was bad. So hopefully the defense add a lot of players on defense plus Robert Salah that hopefully like he can stay ahead of the change. You can get a little bit different of of an offense. I think traits wise like I'd be curious if you have like a good comp for like a high-end outcome. Jordan Love is kind of like the northstar for me just like as a prospect. That's still the path I'm hoping he takes. And I think that Jordan Love flashes a little bit of athleticism but nothing too crazy. He's just going to win by having crazy arm talent. I just think that when Jordan Love saw the field after sitting for a little bit, he was just kind of a lot further ahead on this this timeline than Cam Ward. Remember, Cam Ward's an air raid guy. Uh so I think there could be a little bit of a transition time. The underdog picking lobby, it's only at 17 and a half touchdowns here. So like the bar is pretty low just like setting expectations. And I do fear that how intriguing his five ten best plays of the year is a little bit kind of, you know, coding over like what happened on a play by play basis. So I I had a lot of fun watching him. I really hope he's good. Uh, I'm maybe kind of have my eyes towards 2027 and 2028 uh rather than like being super optimistic for this year. week one, I just want the structure to have some semblance to it and then for it to be on him if he fails versus, you know, a couple times per game, it's on him that he fails, but then many others that someone is slipping or sliding or blowing a block or dropping a pass and
>> uh give him a platform to uh have a real chance for for multiple weeks. The other part of this though, and it's kind of been swept under the rug this off seasonason, is that he suffered a shoulder injury during the final game of the season, uh he did avoid surgery on this right AC joint sprain, his throwing shoulder. Um, I'm sure everyone believes he's going to be perfectly healthy entering the year, but that is something that obviously when you prepare for the draft, you don't have as much time as other quarterbacks do uh getting ready for a season and preparing for that. And then right now, whatever time he does miss, uh, that is also kind of impacting whatever potential year two jump you can have. All right, before we get to the next name, our goal this year and even ahead, maybe in just a couple months, 200,000 subscribers here on the channel. Yeah, sure. First, we have to hit 175K, but look, we want to be the source for you to help you win your fantasy football draft. That's it. We want you to beat up your buddies, win your league, and uh have a bit more cheddar at the end of the season. So, our entire goal this summer is to create actionable and good entertaining info for you here on the YouTube channel, and that forces you to subscribe. So, it's totally free to all of you. And thank you to everyone who has hit that button and watched it over the last 5 years. Let's put it that way.
All right. The other first round quarterback, Jackson Dart, from your favorite team, the New York Giants, right now being selected as quarterback 12, the 10th pick of the eight eighth round. When you went back and watched Jackson Dart, what did you see?
I think there's a pretty promising player with Jackson Dart. Just looking at it statistically real quick, 13th in EPA per play, 17th in success rate per play. I'm using per play because a lot of the stuff is based off what he did as a rusher. It was the second most total EPA, only trailing Josh Allen on the ground. I do think that's here to stay for the most part because he is he's quite the athlete. I think comfortably he's a top 10 athlete among starters in the NFL. We're not talking about Jaden Daniels. We're not talking about Josh Allen that next tier down, I do think Jackson Dar is firmly in there and that provides a floor. He has a ways to go as a passer, but when I'm watching like shake Zack Bond uh in open field uh putting his head down, he was like splitting defenders on tape, I think that's a real stuff that's going to buy him time to get more comfortable uh as a passer where I think that he has pretty decent arm talent. It's nothing fantastic. I think he can throw the ball on the run. He's pretty dang accurate. He's aggressive. So, he's like ninth in PFS big time throw rate. He doesn't have crazy arm strength. I think that's average, maybe even teetering towards like maybe even below average like among like NFL starting uh calibers. So, I think that puts him like I think stylistically similar to Russell Wilson, but just does not have the same exact velocity on his throws. But, I do think we have a foundation here. I think it is worth noting out uh noting that he didn't play with Malik Neighbors last year. like the infrastructure around him, I would say was not.
>> Yeah. And he might not again this year, but I'm hopefully the offensive line plays better. They added a firstrounder. Andrew Thomas gets back and actually like fully healthy to go. Uh that the infrastructure around him is a little bit better because if you're looking at the infrastructure versus his results, pretty good season for Jackson Dart.
>> Infrastructure though, you're kind of talking about the players around him because I would say actually the the scheme that was created for him did accentuate a lot of his strengths. Do you agree?
>> I agree. Yeah. I mean, Brian Dable just like did not care if he was going to be in the concussion 10 at all. Like, he had to go win those those games. And for fantasy purposes, like that was that was awesome. And he ended up being a low-end quarterback one uh down the stretch there. I just think that the the scheme uh passing wise and there was a lot of like drop passes from Theo Johnson, which now they have Isaiah Likely. Uh some drop balls from Darius Sllayton. Hopefully that's Malik Neighbors and Darnell Mooney. Hopefully can catch some more passes. and then the offensive line was really injured in the red area. They couldn't move. They didn't have anybody to win one-on-one situations. I don't think we're going to have that perfectly this year, but still the fact that Jackson Dar was able to escape and have like league average stats on like the advance metrics despite all that I think is pretty promising here.
>> To me, what I love about him is that he has the same level of confidence in his teammates as he does in himself.
>> Like he trusts his guys. He gives them a chance even if he shouldn't based on a lot of the things that you said. So, I think with better players, more plays will be made. Now, I also believe there's a question if he has better players around him this year. Definitely on the offensive line, like that matters a lot. And we'll get into the offensive line element in a little bit, but we need Malik Neighbors like a true number one to be on the field for a long stretch of the season and at his best because that makes a difference. And if not, you're kind of going in this roleplayerish range, which can be a bit high variance, and it doesn't really necessarily change and dictate what the defense is going to do. Uh, I agree with you that leading off with his mobility is the right way of doing this. And then that will buy him time uh to hopefully develop more as like your typical top tier quarterback passer or like above average quarterback passer. because to me I was a bit nervous of like how often his eyes dropped but in that area he did have the athleticism to avoid the pressure. There was a lot of movement in that to like again that's how he was able to kind of change the numbers in the secondary. One of his favorite plays this year was for the pass rush to get upfield him to climb up. There were these two sitting linebackers over the middle of the field. One or both would then converge on him so he doesn't scramble for eight tards and then he would just loft the ball over their heads and there would be like your inbreaker, your dig route, even if it was kind of an extended play, not necessarily in the structure of an offense. So you got a whole bunch of those kind of extended plays that on a weekly basis you wonder if they could,
>> you know, repeat themselves week on week. he did. Then I do wonder if defenses are going to kind of change how they cover him a little bit more this season.
>> Yeah. Yeah. I think that would be the the the bad outcome. I do think that he's just such a good athlete that I think that's just going to be the reality for Jackson Dart for like the next 5 to 10 years. Um and I I do think that he's he's an NFL starter and I have like no questions that the Giants are going to commit to him for a very long time. I thought like the the the floor here was was pretty solid. Uh, I think he's definitely on this Russell Wilson, Jaylen Herz, I'll throw out, you know, Bo Nicks type of spectrum here where you have a good athlete. There's some very clear things where if you're an offensive coordinator, you want to be gravitating towards and then hopefully Jackson Dar can get more familiar inside the pocket. I was looking at some of the splits. His red zone numbers were horrific and there was he had a fumble. He was trying trying to make too many plays out of structure. I think going back and watching all of them, there are some elements like he did not have a one-on-one guy and that's huge in uh the red area. And then also he had the worst splits against two high shells versus not. And I think both of those red zone, two high shells, the best quarterbacks, you got to have the right path instantaneously. Throw it on the money, know where you're going to be, very decisive, and then it's also helpful to have somebody that you can throw the ball to consistently. That's where he struggles. And there was just too many times the Saints won one of the worst reps by any quarterback. A dig route, I mean, wide open. The offensive line is doing their job. He's staring at the guy he should be throwing the ball to. Kind of breaks out from there, misses them, fumble. There's another play where a dig routes coming open, laid on it, then that turns to an interception. He does not have the best eyes right now. And that was some of the thing the concern of of playing in a Lane Keifin offense where things are a little bit more halffield ready. Now, the positive thing is with experience, that's the type of thing that hopefully can get better. Like all of a sudden, like an unathletic quarterback is just not going to become a great athlete. Where I do think there's maybe some more progression with Jackson Dart as he gets away from the air ready lean kein offense into a more structured hard ball under center play action offense, which he's not. This is not what he's used to at all. Um, but I do think three years from now, if you can just see the field a little bit better, the other tools are are locked and loaded. So, that's why I'm taking a pretty optimistic look here. We've talked about this often, but so frequently rushing and mobility at quarterback is linked to a player ceiling when it really should be linked to their floor. Because in this case, like you were talking about the floor being just his ability to buy himself not only time in a play, but in his career to learn more and become a viable passer from the pocket in the structure of everything because that is what translates year-over-year. It's fascinating that you mentioned Russell Wilson. I know you did on Twitter as well because that's an interesting comparison from the angle that you brought it up, but also because there was a period of time where everyone in, you know, the football cognizante said, "Let Russ Cook, give him the keys to the offense, run less, throw more, that's the highest EPA, that's where the big plays come from, all that type of stuff." But then when you listen to all the Seahawks that now maybe have podcasts from that era, uh, and also, you know, you talk to someone like Michael Shawn Dugar who does a fantastic job covering that team,
>> Russell was able to have those late game moments because of the running game. Like you didn't have to rely on Russell Wilson to carry your offense on every single series because he wasn't going to stand there and read it out play after play. And on some level, the Giants are kind of using those same buzzwords this off seasonason a bit. Like reading between the lines, top 12 pick on an offensive lineman. They were in on all the big-time running backs according to Jordan Ranon. When you talk about Ken Walker to Travis ETN to hoping to draft Jeremiah Love even despite all that, you listen to Harbaugh and Matt Naggie and everyone saying quote, "We want to run the football." And then when we get into favorable situations, this is my conclusion from them. Then that's where you can get these, you know, moments of magic from him. Yep. You can ask Jackson Dart to like have a cool ass play three or four times a game versus asking him to do it 13 to 14 times.
>> Correct.
>> Per game. So yeah, to me he's more of like a see it, throw it kind of guy. And that's why again when I talked about having the rush converge and him using his athleticism to not just go north and south but also east and west and elonginging elongating these plays that allows the coverage to get stretched out to the play to kind of break down and then he can and he makes some really cool decisions with that. Like he really does reset and like
>> you know push past the ball and do all this flick of the wrist. But then it also goes into why he was to me such a bummer inside of the red zone because everything is so condensed in that area. that you really can't stretch everything out that it's much more difficult to elongate those snaps. And then that's when you kind of have to play on time in rhythm and everything of that sort. And uh that's where I'm going to look immediately in weeks one through three and see if that has progressed.
>> Yeah. And usually when we're like he's not reading things out properly, usually that comes with and he had 14 interceptions and he was making all these brutal mistakes. he was just like turning things down, not like necessarily making a bunch of bad decisions like and just like forcing a bunch of passes that he had no business doing. So maybe that's like on the grand scheme of things a slight plus. I I think that he can be Bo Nicks and like that's the secondyear leap and then all of a sudden we're kind of talking about him a little bit differently. I think he's very clearly going to be an NFL starter. And I do think there's like a Jaylen Herz type of ceiling that you can kind of grow into. And I'm hoping that as he gets more experience, just saying just like we saw with Jaylen Herz over his Eagles career, then you know, three years into this, all of a sudden you have like, all right, the athletes awesome and he's at least can throw the ball down the football field and it's on the OC to kind of make things better and you have
>> and the playmakers around him like it's kind of
>> it it turns into like an environmental situation like do you have a future head coach that we really like as a play caller or is it one of these bums that gets fired after a year? Do you have Dvonte Smith and AJ Brown and Dallas Goddard
>> and is your offensive line playing well as your running game doing it?
>> Yes, I agree. Um, long story short for me, if I was redoing the NFL draft, he would be my first overall player from from last year. Interesting. So,
>> um, I I think it's an awesome pick for the Giants, they should be very happy about where this thing was initially. And then I would say don't expect the craziest secondyear leap because we're going into a brand new offense. Like you said, under center play action, which I do think you can do. the Bow Knicks, roll them out, throw the ball down the football field. Same thing with Russell Wilson. Like we talked about here, he just hasn't done that a whole lot. So, I wouldn't be surprised if this season feels very similar to last season, maybe with a little bit less rushing. And then 2027 is the year where things all right, Malik Neighbors is healthy. I'm used to this offense and then we can kind of see the the upside case here. But a really good athlete, man. Like you could just cannot underell that part of this.
>> There was one moment when he did play with Malik Neighbors. This play kind of stood out to me versus all the others. like again dropping his eyes. A three-level play where Malik Neighbors literally puts up a mailbox. He's on the deepest kind of corner route and it goes back to what we're saying that it didn't lead in an interception or a weward throw. He turned it down and instead in this case ran into a sack and other times, you know, it turned into a run of eight yards or a scramble laterally to buy more time and then everyone kind of plays backyard football and then you flip it for for a big game on top of that. So, I have no idea what Matt Naggie is going to bring to this approach. Uh, I would have been much more excited if it was Todd Monkin uh as his offensive coordinator, which was, you know, the the hope all around when Harbaugh was hired as coach. And obviously now he's the
>> head coach for Shador Sanders, who we'll talk about here in a moment. At the very least, if he has three quality offensive linemen in front of him and they have really good blocking, then that again already gives you a platform for for success that you can even have more fun and your athleticism can shine even more from that, too.
>> All right, agree.
>> I'll still take Kam Ward, but we'll see. This will be a telling season. Okay, quarterback three and actually quarterback two in your drafts. That is Tyler Shuck of the New Orleans Saints. Uh we talked about him on a recent show, but we'll dive even deeper right now. quarterback 19, the seventh pick of the 10th round at this moment. By the way, you all can be drafting all these players and many, many others over on Underdog right now. Uh, use promo code the show, play five bucks, you get 50 right at this moment. Uh, you've heard us talk about best baseball for years. All you do is draft. There's no waiverss, there's no trades, there's no setting lineup. So, it's the perfect time to do it right now and all summer long. So, uh, go download the dog app and do some drafting. Talk to me about Tyler Shuck and what you saw here after he took over in about week eight.
>> Very competent football player here. Now, that comes with the territory being a 26-year-old. I I get it. But I see all the tools to be an NFL average starter. And I think that for the Saints, like you're looking at a complete bargain here, second rounder on a rookie cont uh contract. And uh all the additions that they made this off season, I think you felt that being the weaknesses of this offense the last year. I thought there was some reps where if it wasn't going to Chris Alavven, he was trying to go to the next tier of players. Those guys weren't coming open. Uh and then I also thought there was some pressure on the the interior offensive line. You bring in a veteran. Uh add Jordan Tyson. We liked Oscar Delp a little bit yards after the catch, a different type of player than Jawan. And I can see how this thing kind of comes together. I can tell that Kell Moore liked what he was seeing from Tyler Shuck. Uh Tyler Shuck plays a very conservative brand of football. he's willing to throw the ball over the middle, but if he doesn't like it, he's going to quickly get to his checkown and throw the ball underneath. Uh there was a little bit of antsiness to him, like he you can feel him just playing really fast. Sometimes that was a good thing because he can actually make make it through all all of his reads. And then I think other times you kind of feel some of the antsiness come into play. His numbers against pressure were pretty bad. But otherwise, I thought had a pretty quality season. And I think that this intermediate 5 to 15 kind of yard window, I thought Tyler Shucks showed a lot there. And while you didn't get to it a lot, there's some level of athleticism here. He surprised the Bucks a couple times. Uh zone read scrambling. I'm completely shocked. I'm sure Todd BS is still furious about it. Uh and then he can throw on the run a little bit here. So there's some warts to his game I think is going to prevent him from having a big time ceiling here. Is the pathway to him being, you know, hopefully Ryan Tanahill right there for the taking? I think that's absolutely a play.
>> He's easily in the best situation and it's not just last season he was in the best situation. It's also this year.
>> Uh you can clearly tell that Kell Moore has a vision of what he wants an offense to be. And you know, this goes back to his time with the Cowboys and the Chargers and the Eagles. We always talk about pace. We always talk about amount of plays. But you know, he had the answers here for Tyler Shuck. And you could argue he had the answers for Spencer Rattler as well. I think if you're talking about time to throw, they were two of the four quickest time to throws uh across the league. So again, that's the vision of who they are. But then how can you upscale that? How can you upgrade that? This year, you talked about it. They had some really nice designed open stuff, whether it was like a fake screen that leaked out or open extra protection or rub routes on these vertical routes. But then it goes to the personnel. Like you bring in David Edwards at left guard so you don't have instant losses at that spot to not spook your quarterback. You bring in Travis ETN to be the starting running back when you had to turn two late round guys last year. Jordan Tyson to be an outside ISO winner. Uh and then Oscar Delp as you said to be a real inline presence, but also athleticism after the catch that you can just flip it to on those time to throw routes. So like while I believe that the Saints offensive line because they still had, you know, two first rounders plus some other guys and then Chris Ave gave him a combo to have the most chances to play in timing and in the structure of the three guys we've already talked about already that can even be ramped up even more and lean into the things he does well this season. That that gives him a springboard to have like a really nice even second gear to it. Even if you would say like in a vacuum to use that phrase, maybe his traits and his play style don't necessarily give like a huge secondyear leap in comparison to Cam Ward and Jackson Dart, if that makes sense.
>> Yeah, I think that his arm talent in general is just rock solid. I think his accuracy is fine. I will note that his uh catchable ball rate and success rate on 20 plus air yards was among the worst in the NFL. Uh his I think he can take some RPMs and layer throws pretty well and he can even make some throws on the run and then layer them. So I I like that part of his arm talent. I wouldn't say the ball is like completely being rifled in there all the time, but it passes every single level to throw the ball down the football field long term. So I think that the arm talent's fine. Like we said, the athleticism is fine. I just thought by rookie standards, uh, him throwing the ball over the middle as often as he did and like working all the way to the checkdown, I thought was was pretty dang impressive. Now, like, should we expect that from a 26-year-old? Sure. But, I mean, he was executing it. And I I think that there's a a built-in floor here with with Tyler Shuck. And if we are going to be throwing the ball over the middle and surprising uh players or the the defenders out there, that's kind of like what like Ryan Tanahill was doing out there. So, that's kind of what I'm hoping for where the Titans can kind of go on a run because Tan Hill's not overly expensive. They got Derrick Henry. They got competent offensive line play. We like the the head coach and then all of a sudden you can have like a pretty fun team even if you're not you're going to end up losing to, you know, the the freakazoid quarterbacks that are out there. So, I mean,
>> but this level of quarterback in this system can be a top 15 guy, you know.
>> Yeah, I agree. Oh, yeah. When when you are in the right system surrounded by the right people and your offensive line stays healthy and it protects you, then you can go on these runs of consistency of knowing where to go with the football and get it out of your hands that it makes your stats look incredible and it makes your play on the field look in time, in rhythm, and just successful drive to drive. And
>> he's in a potential situation to do that. And that's really the first time I've said that with all three of these quarterbacks. And so that again that gives him a great platform here. And on top of that, just as soon as he was inserted in the starting lineup, you could tell he had an understanding of this offense and that he and Kellen are on the same page and what his strengths are and what his weaknesses are. Like pre- snap, he
>> knows in terms of what the coverage he's looking at on the drop. He's hitting the checklist in terms of reading exactly which is my zone side, which is my man side. And then once he hits his drop, like the ball is out. And while it looked kind of boring at times and maybe not as many total peaks as we've talked about with Ward and and Dart,
>> uh you could just hit the next play and hit the next play and hit the next play
>> and it was just out out and what I loved was, you know, a ton of these out routes, these hinges, these curls, these comebacks, all types and the ball was just
>> on time,
>> on the moment, exactly where it needed to be. Now, on the opposite end, um I do still have questions about him under pressure because the sample size is pretty small. Again, the offensive line he played with last year, while it had some holes and they tried to patch that this year, he had 124 drop backs under pressure last year. 39 completions went under pressure. For example, that's the same number as Justin Fields, JJ McCarthy, Michael last season.
>> Um and even his adjusted completion percentage under pressure last year is 28 in the NFL. Now, is it to the point like it was at Louisville when you had those highlight reel or low lightss where he would just like get rid of the football? No. Like he he showed a lot more strength in that situation and willingness to take shots in those situations. But then there were still moments like against the Rams for example where it was just a simple four-man rush and he just you could see the discomfort on his face and he popped it to Shahed in double coverage and it should have been an interception or against the Dolphins like it was a train wreck of a first half. They confused him. They got him second guessing. He was throwing into driving defenders. They were down 16 nothing I believe at one point and then even to close it out the interception the two-point attempt to tie it deep into the fourth quarter. So, while you can tell that he and Kell Moore have answers and he knows what his answers are be and they have a really good plan heading into these, I do have some concerns of if he goes in these contests and he is surprised, not just for series but entire games, then I'm not sure if he has like just the tools right now or the ability right now as a 27year-old quarterback soon to be to then like flip that switch and like put the team on his back.
>> I see it the same exact way. just the internal clock feels very fast and then he can feel a little bit antsy. His pressure
To sack ratio on top of those other metrics was second worst in the NFL. Is only, uh, better than Gino Smith last year. So, not only was he not not completing passes, he was just like straight up taking too many sacks on top of that. This was like the thing that we had more concerns with on his Louisville tape. I will say this, he is tough. Like, I think in Louisville you can be like, is he tough enough to hang in the NFL? There were plenty of reps where he was taking big shots and delivering it. It was just that he would play kind of quick and then he'd have some bad decisions there. So, I I saw him playing more too quick rather than like being fooled. Uh, and I I do wonder if, like you said, ultimately the trades are going to be a tier below where it needs to be to like really, really take off here. But that said, I just think that he does a lot of the the more difficult things as a rookie quarterback. I think he does that at a pretty nice level. So, I think the Saints right now, they would have to take like a top 10 pick to to pry pry them away from Tyler Shuck. I think we're re-redrafting. I think he's easily going well into the first half of of round one, and they got him, uh, what, 41st overall or whatever it was. Yeah, he looks like a 27-year-old quarterback and like by that, I mean he frequently guys on their second contract kind of look the comfort level that he has right now in terms of, uh, playing out the scheme of of an offense. Um, and for him, it's the same same number of positives.
Um, I I mentioned with Cam Ward and I should have said this with Jackson Dart as well, the motioning and shifting percentage. Oftentimes that's, you know, coaches being scared of putting too much on the plate of a rookie quarterback. So like Dart, uh, he was 32nd last year with 46% of motion shift plays. Cam Ward 28th, 54%. Uh, Tyler Shuck in the Saints team, sixth most, 70% of snaps. So that shows again, not just a confidence in this is the scheme we're running and I'm gonna get my guys prepared, but also Tyler Shuck to, you know, get to the line of scrimmage in time and command a huddle enough and uh, get people in the right positions for for all of that to unfold. So like if Jordan Tyson hits as a top 15 pick that he is, if Oscar Delpch flashes athleticism, if David Edwards is a quality left guard signing, and then if Travis Achan can step in there and be a reliable runner, then you're already like using last season as almost the floor and then hoping that this becomes even better. And I think that's why that the Saints are becoming such a uh, invogue pick as, uh, people Cinderella team of the season. Yep. I see it the same exact way. Do you think there's like a little like Daniel Jones to this all? I think Daniel Jones a little bit better of an athlete, but I think but you can build a decent offense around Daniel Jones and uh, I think that a quality coach can kind of get the most out of Daniel Jones. I can see Chuck kind of falling into that category.
Okay. I wanted to ask you this question. Um, since this is a fantasy program, which of these ADPs do you like the most? Do any of them do you like the least? Are you drafting all of them with confidence? I understand stacking and all that type of stuff. Uh, because we just talked about discussing ADPs and the markets would tell you that round 10 is pretty rich here for Tyler Shuck, uh, just in terms of his projected touchdowns this year and the Saints overall. But again, we know that uh multiple teams every single year throw their projections in, uh, the markets faces out there and uh, overperform. Let's say, uh, I think the Saints, I think they're 22nd in projected points. That feels too low. Tyler Shuck on underdog right now, he's projected for just 19 and a half passing touchdowns. I like taking the higher there. The ADP gets me a little bit more nervous just because he's surrounded by guys that can like run around a lot. So like Malik Willis goes in the next round. Kyler Murray would be my favorite in this round. I think that Kyler Murray is going to like easily win that job with the Vikings. You get the Kevin Oonnell infrastructure plus Kyler Murray's like a legit threat rushing where Tyler Shuck, you know, he was, uh, what was it? Quarterback 23, quarterback 25 in in rushing yards this last season. I don't expect that to kind of take over. So, I I think we appreciate what Tyler Shuck is. I think this ADP feels like a round or two too heavy. I would definitely have him over Cam Ward in fantasy though, like for this upcoming season. And that's how the markets are. I just think, you know,, uh, going up one round and, you know, getting Brock Perie or Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence, I would rather just pay the premium slightly to go up ahead. Jack Miller posted about this today that quarterback 18 ADP by year on underdog. Uh, if you go back to, you know, 2020, that was at 150. It was around that 135 to 150 range over the first four years, five years, excuse me. Then if you go to 2025, that was at 129 overall. Again, this is for quarterback 18. So your mid-round quarterback, you're again, uh, stacking them all together. But now your quarterback 18 is going as 110 overall. Now you compare that to the elite quarterbacks, the early round quarterbacks are kind of going later than ever, too.
So that makes me not want to attack this quarterback 18ish range, but instead go up and get one of those elite guys because we're getting a discount versus what we did last year. And we've talked about it mainly because, uh, the athletic ones got injured last year.
Yes. And that could change instantaneously. I view it the same way. I will say this, the quarterback 15 to quarterback 25 on underdog has always been too cheap. Every single year I do fantasy points over replacement and that's a good way to compare things across, uh, positions using underdog half PPPR scoring. And every single year the quarterbacks, they rank way higher in that metric than their ADP. And this is the first year where I can look at the ADP and then look at fancy points of replacement and everything almost looks identical. The running backs are up, the quarterbacks are up, the wide receivers are down, and there's like a legit separation across the tight end landscape. I think that Tyler Shuck should be kind of going in this range. And if he was being priced at at quarterback or like the round 16 range, that would have just been like old school fantasy where that was just like straight up wrong.
Now, the other part of this too is once you get to round 10, you don't really want to take the other position guys. And so that will, you know, push up, uh, the quarterbacks 18 through 25, as you're saying, because it's much easier to click those names versus some of the wide receivers and running backs.
Yeah, that's the bad rookie class from this last year. You know, typically there's a bunch of exciting wide receivers and then this year less so.
Okay, we'll close with one more quarterback. This is Shador Sanders of the Cleveland Browns. Uh, I'm expecting to get starts this year, not necessarily because of what he showed during his rookie season, but just because that quarterback room is Deshun Watson and Shador Sanders at this point. Uh, somehow he continues to just be a lightning rod of a topic. Uh, and now it's your turn to add more fuel to that fire, Hayden.
I don't think Shidor Sanders could play at an NFL starting level. I think that he has a chance to be a career backup. There's not a statistical argument for him. 37th out of 37 qualifiers in EPA, uh, per drop back, 36 in success rate. I think the athletic traits are pretty underwhelming. More backup tier than starting tier. He maybe evaded more tackles than I was expecting. Uh, but it takes a while for him to kind of get up to the top speed. And that's just kind of what a backup quarterback looks like versus the freakazoid quarterbacks we have in the modern NFL. And then I think that his accuracy, I think is good if, like for example, he's in the Pro Bowl, um, by mistake and then he's like throwing the ball at a target. Uh, I think he's accurate then. The way he plays now where he's just kind of like wandering around the pocket and out of time, then I think the accuracy is like actually not good and it was surprising. He had the lowest catchable ball rate, uh, when once he removed screens. He had the highest interceptable ball rate, uh, once you remove screens as well. Pretty tough combo. So I think when we go back to the college profile is like he's super accurate. I don't know if I can say he's actually super accurate. It might be one of his better traits, but by NFL starting standards, I would not say that he's accurate. And then I would also just mention there's just way too many negatives. I think everyone kind of understands that at this point while the coach is like actively trying to hide him. So I think that Deshun Watson's going to run away with this job. And I think that there's a lot more traits upside traits with Deshun Watson that Shador doesn't have. So maybe by the end of the season everything goes bust and we see him again. But I think very clearly a backup if he can kind of hold on to that, uh, if and when he does get on the field. The number one thing that I'm looking for that will set him up for potential future success is he can't bail out of the pocket anymore. Like you you can't go in reverse. He has to climb. There were some promising moments not just in college but in the NFL when he did put his back foot and drive on it and then climb the pocket and then those were his best moments. But again, that offensive line at Colorado retreated a whole bunch, then he gets to Cleveland continues to retreat and that just compounds the negative plays on top of it. So, I am with you. I believe the future with Shador Sanders is as a backup quarterback out there. And like there aren't 32 backup quarterbacks out there, but let's be real. Like, he from talent should be one of the 64 best quarterbacks in the NFL. What adds on to this though is everything that comes with the Chador Sanders experience, his father, his brother, uh, the let's say the media opportunity and involvement that Todd Monkin is going to be asked about every single time that Shore Sanders, uh, is a backup quarterback and Deshun Watson has a bad start out there, the first question in the press conference is going to be, well, is Shador going to be the starter next week? And that just, you know, is a bit of a drag at times on on the entire franchise. But just when focusing on him, I believe he's one of the 64 best quarterbacks in the league. He has some areas that he has success. He has some areas where he wins. But the number one thing that he has to work on to take the next step in just who he is as a player is because he's going to hold on the football too long. And it does kind of take his I think release and wind up a bit too long is he has to have more compact movements and to go forward and not to go in reverse.
Yeah, I think it got better than where it was at at Colorado this last year. And like you said, his best moments were actually him stepping up into the pocket and he actually can layer some throws in. I think that's where his accuracy comes in when he's like throwing almost a change up to the sideline or somebody kind of sneaking in around. That's where you're going to get the best plays from Shador Sanders. And there's no question like that is his best trait. His best rep of the season was a free runner. He was responsible. He rolls out to his right and throws the ball down the football field. And I think that these kind of out of structure moments throwing it with a little bit of pace. I do think like he has like the the top 64 talent that you're talking about there. Now, like you get a couple of those reps per game, like the rest of it has to be at a normal level and he has some some work cut out for him there. Um, do you want to give credit like this off season has been extremely quiet like so far like that's that's really good for for, uh, his brothers made the most noise compared to him.
Yes. And you know what, like his brothers is his own person. Like Sudor Sanders, you can only grade him by the Sudor Sanders stuff. Uh, and he's better than Dylan Gabriel. You know, and Dylan Gabriel was drafted ahead of him. Uh, the Dylan Gabriel stuff, like he would qualify for the show. We agreed we're not even going to get to the Dylan Gabriel stuff. Uh, I will say Shador and Dylan Gabriel over overlapped on the chart a lot when I was like going through some of the filters. Uh, but just in terms of talent, like you're talking about two totally different guys there. He's one of these guys as he gets more reps, I think that his, you know, his plan initially will get a little bit better. His comfort, uh, comfortability throwing the ball over the middle will get a little bit better. He's always wanted to throw the ball over the middle. I think that there's like varying degrees of success with that so far. But I think that's how he becomes a stable backup quarterback. Um, and I I just think that the Browns are probably looking at this like Deshun Watson's overall talent is just way more obvious to us. So, we'll at least see if his Achilles is on straight and give him all the reps this off season and I think well into the season. So, I'm not expecting a whole lot from Shador Sanders, but, um, he's definitely better.
He's definitely better than a fifth rounder. You know, definitely better than a fifth rounder.
Okay, that's going to do it. Again, the most fascinating part to me is three quarterbacks that we talked about in the show last year were going in the top 14, and then just one is going in the top 14 of this year. And, uh, there's going to be obvious areas of, hey, can strengths get stronger of these guys, and can some weaknesses get to league average or even in some cases, can weaknesses turn into strengths? And if that's the case, then, you know, the first two names that we talked about with Cam Warden Jackson Dart, you will see like exponential, uh, success and production compared to what they did their rookie season.
And if we get three starting quarterbacks from this last class where everyone said it's just such a bad class, like that's a win. I think that in general, the gap between Ward, Dart, and Shuck has completely narrowed, and I think all three of these guys have a pathway. They just have to make up for for their warts. But three quarterbacks starting by the end of the rookie season versus the expectations that we had. I would say if we got one starting quarterback from last year's class, that would be a win. I think we're on pace to having two or three of them.
That's going to do it. Again, this week we're going to talk about second-year breakouts at every position. So, running backs, tight ends, wide receivers. So, uh, lock into the channel. This is really what a massive part of your fantasy draft is all about. So, you want to learn about, figure out who these players are, what's now surrounding them, and where they're going to go in their second year. So, shout out to Weaves and Mosho behind the scenes. All of you for watching. Up the bell. We'll talk to you guys next time. See you.